Re: Smithman theory

by crusader 07.05.24 16:47

If the Smith's could 100% have identified the man carrying a child as Gerry McCann, how would he have explained that to the police?

by Cake Lover 07.05.24 19:27

He'd have said that the Smith's, people he didn't know, were notoriously unreliable.

by Silentscope 07.05.24 19:42

[color:72b6=000000]Goncalo Amaral sees it so:

[color:72b6=000000]"The testimony of one of the members of the Smith family that identified Gerry McCann as being the man he saw on the night that Maddie disappeared, carrying a child in his arms as he walked towards the beach was devalued after I left the case. It is a lie that the e-fit that the British police now made public is based on the Smith family's witness statement."

The statements are from Gonçalo Amaral, the former PJ coordinator who investigated the disappearance of Madeleine McCann, to Correio da Manhã. They appear following the publication of e-fits by the Scotland Yard that point one of the drawings out as being that of the main suspect over the presumed abduction of the English child, on the 3rd of May of 2007 - which they say was based on the testimony of an Irish family that was on holiday in Praia da Luz when Maddie disappeared.

"The Smith family told us what they saw that night. A man, a foreigner, of athletic build, a sunburned face, like those of tourists, who was hiding his face in order not to be seen, carrying a blonde child in his arms," Gonçalo Amaral said. "A short time later, when the McCann family 'fled' to the United Kingdom, and were welcomed by the television at the airport, a member of the Smith family called us, very upset. Gerry [Maddie's father], who was leaving the plane, was the man that Mr Smith had seen carrying a child that night," the former coordinator explained.

For Gonçalo Amaral, "there was a positive identification, which was set aside". "The McCann's hired detectives who made a portrait, a man that resembled Gerry, in order to devalue the deposition," he concluded.

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by Paddingtom 08.05.24 7:49

Silentscope thankyou so much for that video I hadnt seen it before. It does seem that (as has been mentioned before) there was this critical cctv that unfortunately the pj got to too late. It seems that the road heads towards the beach and it ties in nicely with my theory that someone was waiting for Gerry and Ella with a car...it looks like that car could have been parked around the corner where it would have been out of sight of the cctv. Unfortunately it all went pear shaped before he got to the car because he was seen by the Smiths. As Crusader points out, he didnt want to be seen by anyone for fear of identification so this crucial event changed everything, They had to abandon plan A and try and distract everyone from an abducter heading to the beach, so jane tanner said she saw "him" going in totally the opposite direction and they had to try and get the smith sighting dismissed...but Goncalo was too clever for them. If only they had that cctv. anyway, once team mccann were sure there was no incriminating cctv they were able to give more credit to the smith sighting because it would look very odd if they refuse to entertain every potential sighting. thankyou to Silentscope for your Goncalo statement too.....most informative. Interestingly, I was looking at some files and discovered that Russ obrien, father of ella, was missing from the tapas bar from 9.30 till 10,00ish supposedly because of a sickly daughter.....or maybe because he was also in the car waiting for gerry, ready to comfort Ella if shed woken up....she wasnt ill, she was being used as a decoy. The other thing Ive found is really just by way of interest... The picture of Sagresman looks in weirdly the same position holding his arms out infront of himself as jane tanner described tannerman carrying an abducted child!! Its a very strange way to carry a child, but maybe she got inspiration from seeing the photos in advance of her statement..*not sure how the timeline works with this so maybe coincidence)..teh photos are about 3/4 of the way down...im sorry I havent got the skills to extract the photo individually...
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by Verity 08.05.24 8:24

Jane Tanner saw the 'abductor' with arms outstretched carrying a child.

But the Smiths recognised Gerry from the plane by the way he was carrying Sean with his head resting on his shoulder.

So which is it?

And maybe Gerry was carrying Amelie who had blonde hair, rather than Ella whose hair is darker.

If it happened at all.

by **PeterMac** 08.05.24 9:04

Verity wrote:Jane Tanner saw the 'abductor' with arms outstretched carrying a child.
But the Smiths recognised Gerry from the plane by the way he was carrying Sean with his head resting on his shoulder.
So which is it?
And maybe Gerry was carrying Amelie who had blonde hair, rather than Ella whose hair is darker.
If it happened at all.

The Jane Tanner one clearly did NOT happen.
The Smith one may simply be a random bloke carrying his child, and nothing to do with the McCanns at all.

by Silentscope 08.05.24 9:36

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The easiest way to treat this Case is to view everything that originated from ‘Team McCann’ as a Lie which has the intention of covering up their own failures, or shielding their reputations.

Most sightings were coming from ordinary people who were just trying to be helpful.

Other sightings however have strong links to either Rothley or Eire.

by Paddingtom 08.05.24 12:23

PeterMac wrote:
Verity wrote:Jane Tanner saw the 'abductor' with arms outstretched carrying a child.
But the Smiths recognised Gerry from the plane by the way he was carrying Sean with his head resting on his shoulder.
So which is it?
And maybe Gerry was carrying Amelie who had blonde hair, rather than Ella whose hair is darker.
If it happened at all.
The Jane Tanner one clearly did NOT happen.
The Smith one may simply be a random bloke carrying his child, and nothing to do with the McCanns at all.

I agree Tannerman was a fabrication....(unfortunately with clothes the same as gerry and the cctv, as that it what the original plan was)

And yes, absolutely Smithman could have been some innocent geezer with his daughter......but you do have the problem of buttons on trousers as specified by little Oife Smith.......not unique, but very interesting all the same...and gerry it would appear together with Russ were missing from the tapas.....

Also, even if they knew it was innocent, the Mccann team would leap on the sighting like their lives depended on it.....1) to backup their story and 2) to be seen to be following up all options..........thier dismissal of the sighting is a red flag for me......not the actions of parents trying to prove their daughter has been taken.....I know that they knew she hadnt, but they needed to show an interest for optics sake. They probably would have even been keen for random geezer to be arested and charged...job done....

and yes, if it was gerry, it could have been Amelie but not sure how the sizes would work for the cctv,,,,,,how much smaller was Amelie?.....Ella was probably closer to the right size...

by crusader 08.05.24 16:33

Jane tanner was quite specific that the man she saw had collar length dark hair, exact oppisite to Gerry's.

by Silentscope 08.05.24 21:21

Maybe Tanner saw ‘Frickerman’ ? laugh

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by **PeterMac** 09.05.24 6:50

Occam's Razor defeats Smithman for me.
If the intention was to be seen, then a dark street corner after a longish walk down a road in open ground on the off chance that someone might be there at all, and then might notice, and then might link that with the reports, and then might come forward, and then might speak English and be able to describe . . . is a few steps too far.
If the intention was NOT to be seen then the reverse applies

by Paddingtom 09.05.24 8:03

Hi Crusade...My belief is that as soon as Gerry got back to the resort, he told them he had been seen by the large Smith family and the implications were immediately obvius. So it was decided to try and get everyone to concentrate in totally the opposite direction. Jane thought to make her tannerman look less like gerry saying he had longer hair, but with it having been agreed in advance, she stuck to the beige trousers bit...a sort of half and half....sticking to the original plan as much as possible, but altering the description a bit to deflect from it being too close to Gerry......

Hi PeterMac....The crucial thing is that they DID NOT want Gerry to be seen by people.......hence back streets......... They wanted gerry to be seen by CCTV and CCTV alone........

.If there really had beeen a genuine adductor, he would most likely take back streets to avaoid being seen, so gerry taking the same route was twofold.....it replicated a sensible route for a real adducter and he would be unlikely to be seen by anyone......the only eveidence of an abductor at all would be the cctv picking one up.........it was all about CCTV.....

Think of it this way.......My belief is that if gerry had not been seen by a several people ( a couple of drunks wouldnt have mattered) he would have continued towards the beach and round the corner, been picked up in a car parked out of sight with a driver and Russ in it. Russ would comfort Ella and they would be driven back to the resort.
Kate would scream "Abduction" and jane Tanner would say she had seen an abductor heading towards the beach and they would demand that the pj seize the CCTV on the route to the beach......when they did, there and behold would be the adductor heading towards the beach and round the corner out of sight.....the implication being that he was heading towards a waiting speedboat and it would all be over before you could say Morrocco. However, the smith sighting changed everyting. It had become far too risky as they could potentially recognise Gerry so they switched to plan B and Jane then had to see an adductor going in toattly the opposite direction.... If the smith sighting hadnt happened, Morrocco would have been swarming with police. The smiths were the spanner in the works.....they changed everything.

I hope ive made myself clearer....im sorry that I dont appear to be explaining myself very well...... Think of it as being all about CCTV ....they did not want the complication of having independant witnesses involved, they just wanted cctv to witness it...nothing else...and noone else and definately not the smiths.....

hope that hepls....

by Paddingtom 09.05.24 8:30

Hi Petermac, me again...sorry... I didnt know what occams razor was but Ive just looked it up and my loose translation is that the simplest plan is the best...is that right?

My theory is that it was simple...... Death on 29th April.....body removed and instructions issued.

3rd may....Kate screams "absduction" jane tanner says she saw a man going towards the beach. The pj seize all the cctv on beach route.
Abductor seen on cctv, Everyone invades morrocco.....job done....

But it went wrong.......The smiths turned up and saw gerry. Then jane tanner tried to point everyone in the opposite direction and it all started to go mad....it then became complicated because they were trying to cover up for the unexpected and unwanted smith sighting.....

The smiths changed everything..... an occams razor became death in paradise/........Agatha christie novel...etc.........it was never meant to be that complicated....Plan A was very straightforward.........Ill say it again....the smiths changed everything. Plan B was the complcated one because they were firefighting.....

by **PeterMac** 09.05.24 8:42

Interesting theory, but are you not adding things to make it fit ?
That requires Russ to be away from the group for a considerable time, and then in a car, lurking.
Car or a taxi ?
Is there evidence that Russ hired a car ?
If not we have to add a taxi driver who did not come forward when one man handed a small girl to another man, and then drove them 300 metres back to . . .well where ?
Apartments, so they could dump the child and go back to the Tapas ready in time for the Call Out at 2200.
And in what time frame ? Not sure there is enough time to cram all that in.
And Praia da Luz to Morocco is a LONG sea voyage, not a short trip across the straits. 350nm , so a couple of days on the North Atlantic.

Sorry, but I cant make it work

by Silentscope 09.05.24 9:49

There are some other possibilities.

The Smiths did see ‘Smithman’ (who could have been anybody.)
The Smiths really saw this person but earlier than 22:00.

Either:
The Alarm was truly raised at 22:00 and Gerry was at the Tapas Table.
The Smiths were got at and made to change their earlier time to 22:00, adding the desired description issued to them by Team McCann.
Or the Alarm was actually raised earlier around 21:30, but Reported as 22:00 in order to cover Gerry’s movements between those times.

Which gives ‘Smithman’ 15 minutes one way and 15 minutes back to 5A,
an easy jog, get changed and alter his appearance.

To where and what for is another Question.

Possibilities:
1. Dump the body in the Water.
2. Hide it on Church grounds where no one would think to search.
Possibly to be picked up by somebody. Seddon was first choice,
but he was not available.
3. Place it in a Freezer by another known Associate.

If ‘Smithman’ was Gerry at all…
‘Not proven’ ? (under Scottish Law)

by Paddingtom 09.05.24 12:09

PeterMac wrote:Interesting theory, but are you not adding things to make it fit ?
That requires Russ to be away from the group for a considerable time, and then in a car, lurking.
Car or a taxi ?
Is there evidence that Russ hired a car ?
If not we have to add a taxi driver who did not come forward when one man handed a small girl to another man, and then drove them 300 metres back to . . .well where ?
Apartments, so they could dump the child and go back to the Tapas ready in time for the Call Out at 2200.
And in what time frame ? Not sure there is enough time to cram all that in.
And Praia da Luz to Morocco is a LONG sea voyage, not a short trip across the straits. 350nm , so a couple of days on the North Atlantic.

Sorry, but I cant make it work

Hi Petermac

Yes of course Im adding things to make it work.....isnt that what everyone does when faced with an odd situation? Ive only recently become interested in all this and it was from watching Rich Halls vids. He convinced me that it happened on 29th April so the body would be long gone by 3rd may and the brit big wigs would be involved. already

What I did not find persuasive was his dismissal of Smithman......I found it genuine.   It now seems to me that this standpoint puts me in a fairly unique position.   People either believe everything happened on 3rd May and the smiths observed gerry carrying maddie.   or they believe it happened much earlier in the week and the smith sighting was rubbish.......so I searched long and hard for an explanation to my belief of 29th april and a genuine smith sighting/   unable to find one, I had to find an explanation that fitted for my own satisfaction. and the CCTV scenario does it for me.

Russ might have had nothing to do with the staging of an adduction for cctv. Im just suggesting he might have ben a passenger in the car ready to comfort ella should she need it......the time line they drew up did have russ missing from 9.30 till tenish.    but that doeant prove he was involved...he could have been eagerly waiting for the return of his daughter at the resort.

If you accept the 29th scenarion, you have to believe that the brit bigwigs were involved well before 3rd may....what Im suggesting is that someone, maybe an existing resident of PDL of which it woulsd seem many were now involved, used their personal car to meet gerry and ella and return them to the resort. with or without Russ as a passenger....it makes no difference to the basic plan.

As for Morrocco, I jsust came outr with that as an option to shift the focus away from PDL......perhaps they were planning to suggest the speedboat would take them to a private yaght???/....or perhaps they were going to suggest Spain?.....I really dont know or particularly care......my scenario relies on an abductor being seen on cctv heading towards the beach.....I am more than happy for you to come up your own ideas for what the significance of the beach was....

Hi Silentscope.

My theory relies on maddie having been moved away days before. The only thing that had to be achieved on 3rd was that Gerry had to carry Ella towards the beach and been seen on CCTV. then meet up with a waiting car to take them back to the resort so he could get changed and join the rest of them.....

Lets be honest, I dont think we can worry too much about timings being a few minutes out, we know they all covered for each other....they would swear blind that everyone was at a certain place at a certain time.....

I have to admit that I am very frustrated with myself that I dont seem to be able to communicate my theory properly.    I suppose you could liken it to the dreadful case of Little James Bulger which Im sure most of us remember. :

1. Mum cries "Abduction"
2. Police seize shopping centre cctv
3. Abductors on cctv with little James
4. Police follow trail

Sadly we all know the awful events that followed....

My theory is very similar

Original Plan A:

1. gerry carries Ella towards beach past cctv
2. Kate cries "Abduction"
3. Jane says "he went towards the beach"
4. Police seize beach route CCTV
5. Abductor on cctv with small girl
6. Police follow trail

But, what actually happened was

1. Gerry carries Ella towards beach past cctv
2. Gerry is seen by the smiths
3. Kate cries "abduction"

4. Jane sayd "he went in the opposite direction to the beach"
5.Police seize cctv on route away fron the beach
6. No abductor on cctv
7, Police havent got a trail to follow so go through their normal crime investigation procedures which ultimately means getting hold of the beach cctv, but too late...its been overwritten
8, mccanns heave sigh of relief.

Hopefuly Im at last making myself a bit clearer.....

by Silentscope 09.05.24 12:40

The only thing about the Smith's sighting that makes perfect sense is that they all said NOTHING up until Murat was made an Arguido (Suspect).

Only then did it become of Importance to them, as Murat was known to the Smiths personally.

The likelyhood is that either the McCanns or Murat wanted them to get him off of the PJ's Hook.

Whoever 'Smithman' was, it could only be 100% confirmed it was NOT MURAT.

by Paddingtom 09.05.24 13:13

I agree...it was not Murat.

Maybe as a resident of PDL, he had a car?... he apparently was recalled to PDL on Tuesday 1st.....?

by Silentscope 09.05.24 13:27

All Vehicles related to the Case were checked over by the Dog in an undergound Car Park. Only the Renault Scenic and its Key were hit on.

None of Gerrys clothes scored, only Kates and Seans.

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by Paddingtom 09.05.24 14:18

Hi Silentscope,

If it was an existing resident of PDL whoese car was used, the Pj might not know about it and even if they did, there wouldnt be a problem testing it because maddie hadnt been in it.....Ella had......

Gerrys clothes would nott have been contaminated by carrying ella around on night of 3rd may.........In retrospect, what would have been really interesting would have been if his clothes were tested for traces of Ella......Not proof positive, because they were friends and he might hug her, but if her dna was in a line down his left hand side and across his left shoulder, it would be quite interesting......

by Silentscope 09.05.24 15:08

You will need to find out who that was, and which Car they used to Prove your Theory.

I wish you Luck.

by Paddingtom 09.05.24 15:18

So do I........

by crusader 09.05.24 16:59

If, as some people believe, me not being one of them, Madeleine died on 29th April, why would somebody be running around Praia da Luz on the Thursday, (3rd May)with either Madeleine or another child pretending to be Madeleine at 10pm just when the alarm was being raised?

by Paddingtom 10.05.24 7:40

Hi Crusader,

Carrying a child (ella) was for the benefit of cctv and cctv only....it was crucial there were no human witnesses.... and it had to be done at the same time as the alarm was being raised. Theres no point in doing it the day before or an hour before...the timing on the cctv had to backup the timing of the abduction.... Kate shouts "abduction"...low and behold on cctv a few minutes before is an "abducor".....the timing had to match........

As Ive said, the unexpected and unwanted smith sighting blew their plan out of the water and they then had to do everything they could to stop the police seeing the CCTV .

by Silentscope 10.05.24 17:13

So what was it that they did to ‘Stop the Police’ from seeing the CCTV?

What could they have done?

The Footage was not ‘Lost’ or Stolen.

It was written over Automatically.

The PJ were just too late.

by Paddingtom 11.05.24 7:02

Hi Silentscope

They used delaying tactics.....If all had gone to plan and gerry hadnt been seem by anyone, Jane would have said she saw the "adbductor going towards the beech" the police would have immediately seized the cctv on the beach route.. and there for all to see would have been an "adbuctor" heading towards the beach......case solved.

The fact that gery was seen by the smiths meant they had to abandon plan A...so Jane said she saw the adbuctor going in totally the opposite direction........ the police immediately seized the cctv on that route instead ......when no adbuctor was found, they had to go thru normal police procedures which eventually meanst getting to the crucial cctv camera....but by then it was too late, it was overwriitem........jane was trying to keep them away from the crucial cctv with her delaying tactics for long enough for the crucial cctv to be overwritten......it worked........

by crusader 11.05.24 7:41

It's a lot more likely that Gerry would be seen by people than by a working CCTV camera.
How could Jane be sure that the camera they had chosen to spot Gerry was working?

In my opinion, if Madeleine had died earlier in the week, there would be no need for anyone from the group to do anything on the 3rd apart from "finding Madeleine gone" and raising the alarm.
There was no need for them to prove anything.
If however she died earlier on the 3rd, it's quite possible that it was Gerry the Smith's saw.

by Paddingtom 11.05.24 8:03

Hi Crusader,

In my opinion the route was deliberately chosen because it was quiet..there was a more direct route but it was busier... it was early in the season too....I believe the smiths were the only people that saw this event, so without them, he would not have been seen and Plan A would have worked.........the smiths were the event that changed everything.
As for knowing the cctv was working, I guess thay had to hope it was.
My theory relies on her earlier death and the cctv being used to backup their assertion she had been taken.....it showed they were telling the truth......also as Ive just said, Jane was going to immediately alert them to the abductor heading towards the beach so they woul dseize the cctv immediately and there he would be...

If she died on 3rd, the smiths could have seen gerry with maddie.....but personally I dont think that was the case...

.I think maddie was long gone by 3rd and gerry was doing a dummy run to backup their story........ I understand just saying she was missing would have been crucial, but having cctv showing it and pushing the focus to the beach would have been very helpful........

by crusader 11.05.24 17:43

So, if Gerry came back and told Jane he was seen by a group of people, why would Jane then have to tell the police she saw a man with a child walking away from 5a?
Plan A was dead in the water and there was a real witness to a man carrying a child around 10-pm.
Once Gerry had been seen, all bets were off and it made Jane look like a liar to say she also saw a man with a child at somewhere around 9-pm.

by Silentscope 12.05.24 6:07

It could not have happened that way because the written Timelines already said that Tanner was going to sell ‘Tannerman’ to the PJ later.

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