Key questions I want answers to

by Ashley1999 21.06.24 19:56

Well I have quite a lot of observations and questions regarding this case.

I would like some comments and extra input into the following sections would be appreciated.

Madeliene Mcann died inside apartment 5a most likely from a tragic accident most likely from falling behind the sofa in the living room. Although a non accidenal death can't be ruled out however but given there are only so many ways madeleine could have died behind the sofa what do you like was the most likely cause of death?

Also regarding the dog evidence this is quite compelling and despite the forensic evidence was deemed inconclusive my opinion is that the overwhelming amount of behavioural evidence may confirm the alerts were correct. But would you agree with me on that?

Also is it possible that madeleines body was not in the hire car but items that came into contact with her corpse were then placed in the boot of the hire car hence giving off the cadaver scent. I just feel it is unlikely for the mcanns to wait 25 days then to finally transport her? Although I understand the hire car clocked up a lot of mileage and some suspicious trips were taken however. Also I am convinced that madeleines body was placed in the missing blue tennis bag if only that had been used in the cadaver dog investigation I am convinced Eddie would have strongly alerted to it.

And also regarding the photos this is most interesting. I understand there are 5 pics of madeleine on the holiday. 3 were unequivocally taken on the Saturday. The last pool photo was most certainly taken on the Sunday based on my readings of the weather chart data. The tennis ball photo is the biggest mystery and I cannot for the life of me work out how this pic came about any insights would be appreciated.

And finally the smith sighting is very mysterious.

First of all, we can surely agree that the tanner sighting was a pure fabrication and that crecheman was an attempt at perverting the course of justice (I know Richard Hall is of the same opinion here). With the smith sighting I initially thought this was the key to this but now I think it has doubtful value. To cut a long story short it boils down to the few options
1. Smith sighting was fabricated- given Martin Smith does not report this sighting until after Murat is named a suspect which is very odd. I understand this would however involve Martin Smith dragging his family into quite a lot of trouble. That being said the descriptions given did closely match tanner man and sagresman so is it reasonable to suspect some collusion?
2. The smith sighting did happen but it just was an innocent man carrying a toddler towards the beach. The probability of this would be remarkablely low but not impossible I suppose

3. The smith sighting was gerry mccann carrying a dead madeleine towards the beach which would be consistent with madeleine dying 3rd May but the evidence would imply she died on the Sunday or at least certainly before Thursday. So we can safely rule this out

4. The smitlh sighting was indeed gerry carrying a decoy like Jane Tanner daughter that night and was seen by the smiths. This is so sinister but honestly I would not put anything past him.

by Paddingtom 25.06.24 8:27

Hi Ashley1999. I cant authoritively comment on all of this, just provide thoughts.
Some say MM banged head badly enough to be fatal, others that it was more suffocation. Theere was blood identified, so to me, was head bang.

I dont think anyone doubts the dogs. (not even mccanns)

No idea about transfer of residue. suspect unlikely.

Most people seem to think tennis balls photo is photoshopped.

as regards the smith sighting, this is my favourite subject, I have a theory taht I have to tell you now, noone agrees with but I stand by it all the same. This is it.

What the Smiths saw was gerry carrying Ella towards the beach with the intention of being seen on cctv. The time was selected to be quiet and noone else about. it was a full moon. It was hoped the police would see the abductor and abductee on cctv heading towards the beach and presume they had escaped by sea to sagres. (they had lined up a patsy in Sagres for this purpose). Unfortunately the huge smith family made GM identification too likely so they had to abandon the plan and stop the police seeing the cctv. Thry got Jane to see Tannerman heading in totally the opposite direction which would ultimately lead to the Sagres road and they could suggest he eacaped by car to Sagres where the patsy was ready. they also changed the timing of events to be a mismatch with the smith sighting so they could say it wasnt connected. Russ was missing at the same time as Gerry supposedly because his daughter was ill....or being used in an abduction. The PJ files say that Jane had access to a car which could have been used to pick gerry up after hed gone past the cctv...(he couldnt risk being seen coming back with the abducted child!!!) The car was released to the dogs but they wernt interested.....no reason to be, it wasnt a corpse, it was ella. Altenatively Murat was involved by this time and could have aquired a locals car for this purpose.
Amaral is on record as sayi g hes devastated that the cctv was overwritten by the time his officers got to it, so despite what people may say, the cctv obviously was working and would have been pointing in the right direction to pickup the abductor.. Their delaying tactics worked. Gerry was dressed to look the same as the patsy they had lined up in sagres and the original tannerman description was the same too, but they changed it slightly after the smith sighting so it was similar enough to sagresman but different enough from smithman.
The smith sighting was the catalyst for Murat being released and after many years it was responsible for the eventual convertion of Tannerman into Crecheman because it was totally unsustainable and incompatible with the smith sighting which wasnt going away because it was the truth and nonon was able to destroy it.

Sorry for the ramble, but you did ask.

by Ashley1999 25.06.24 12:17

that is great thanks, yh i agree the tennis ball pic was photoshopped but why did the mccanns need to an extra effort of doing this and then kate explains a silly scenario of how the pic came to be in her 2011 book which is 95% bs. why couldn't they just have presented the 3 saturday pics and the pool photo which all seemed genuine anyways.

okay the smith sighting may have been genuine then and if it was it was 100% Gerry, is that you are saying?

by Paddingtom 25.06.24 12:28

Ive got no idea why they cobbled the tennis balls photo together....perhaps it was just another photo to them "prooving" she was still alive and they didnt account for eagle eyed inspection of it.

The smith sighting probably more than anything else, divides everyone.

My personal theory is that it was gerry carrying a decoy to add gravitas to their "abduction" staging....oen/closed windows shutters doors etc.
But, in the interests of honesty, I have to also tell you that noone else belives this. Others believe it was GM carrying a corpse or some random carrying his child or it simply didnt happen. you must make up your own mind based on the evidence you belive and the evidence you dont. At this moment in time, n0-one KNOWS.

by **Bluebagthepirate** 25.06.24 12:45

Key question number one for me is to Gerry.

Why did he change his first statement from entered via front door with key to in through the back patio?

Back to basics - start at the very beginning.

by Ashley1999 25.06.24 14:39

and also regarding the dog evidence, does the behavioural evidence confirm the alerts were correct?

by Paddingtom 26.06.24 7:21

they were able to lift evidence of blood in some areas the dogs alerted.

But laboratory was knobbled by those wishing to protect parents, so it all got rather muddled. and the catch all "inconclusive" was adopted.

by Ashley1999 26.06.24 8:27

Yes I understand that but the ridiculous reasons the mccanns gave for the dog evidence being unreliable. I can only assume they did this because they knew the alerts were correct?

by Ashley1999 26.06.24 8:29

Yh also it seems there was political pressure on the FSS to secure a less conclusive result

by Cake Lover 26.06.24 9:34

It would have been easy to prove if somebody other than Madeleine had died in the apartment; The McCann pair would have told the world if they had asked Mark Warner that question - but the answer would have been 'a definite no'. So they had to get round that somehow. and blame the dogs.

by Ashley1999 26.06.24 11:27

yh and also the mccanns never kept their excuses consistent about the reliabiltiy of cadaver dogs too, as they suggested it was alerting to rotting meat and dirty diapers as well as a dead body at the hospital kate works at (so in that instance the alert was correct but jsut not madeliene's corps)

by **crusader** 26.06.24 12:09

Bluebagthepirate wrote:Key question number one for me is to Gerry.

Why did he change his first statement from entered via front door with key to in through the back patio?

Back to basics - start at the very beginning.

I think he was telling the truth, he did enter by the front door with his key and left by the patio doors where he bumped into Jez Wilkins.
I think Matt Oldfield was the only one who entered by the patio doors.
Gerry entered by front door, blinds down, Matt entered by patio doors and never saw the blinds but he did say there was light in the room.
Had Gerry opened the window and blinds on his last visit?
Did Matt and Russ go together to attend to something set up by Gerry?
This has always niggled me.

by **Bluebagthepirate** 26.06.24 20:53

crusader wrote:

I think he was telling the truth, he did enter by the front door with his key and left by the patio doors where he bumped into Jez Wilkins.
I think Matt Oldfield was the only one who entered by the patio doors.
Gerry entered by front door, blinds down, Matt entered by patio doors and never saw the blinds but he did say there was light in the room.
Had Gerry opened the window and blinds on his last visit?
Did Matt and Russ go together to attend to something set up by Gerry?
This has always niggled me.

You think Matt is an unwitting pawn?

I don't think so - maybe he was supposed to alert and bottled it though.

Why would he so obviously cover for them later if he was being set up?

by **crusader** 26.06.24 21:04

Unwitting pawn no, major player possibly.
I think he and Russ O B had a part to play.
It's just nonsense Matt and OB left the tapas at the same time, unless they had something to do.
He didn't mention in his first statement, he left with Russ to check on the children, why not.

by **crusader** 26.06.24 21:32

He also said in both 4th and 10th may statements, all adults at table when alarm was raised.
So he's saying Jane was there and was not in the apartment after relieving Russ

by **crusader** 26.06.24 21:57

Were Russ and Matt setting the scene in 5a, did Russ stay behind because Gerry didn't want the twins left alone with the window and shutter open.
Those two left the tapas together for a reason and it wasn't because they were afraid of the dark.
I wonder if Jane ever left the table at all, if she did, she was the only woman that did.

by Honesty 26.06.24 23:17

Ashley1999 wrote:Yh also it seems there was political pressure on the FSS to secure a less conclusive result

According to one of the Pamelam podcasts, didn't Jane Tanner's phone record reveal that she had called a doctor connected to FSS but, strangely, had saved the contact details of this doctor under a false name.

by Honesty 27.06.24 7:01

Apologies, Pamalam, not Pamelam.

by Paddingtom 27.06.24 7:14

crusader wrote:Were Russ and Matt setting the scene in 5a, did Russ stay behind because Gerry didn't want the twins left alone with the window and shutter open.
Those two left the tapas together for a reason and it wasn't because they were afraid of the dark.
I wonder if Jane ever left the table at all, if she did, she was the only woman that did.

As you know, Crusader, my theory says that Russ and Gerry were missing at the same time because they were taking part in an "abduction". i.e. Gerry doing the abduction and Russ either driving the car or patiently waiting for the rturn of his abducted child. The cover story for Russ was that he had a sick child he was looking after....

I suspect Janes job was to keep cavey.

God knows what Matt was up to. Do we even know for certain he left the table, or was he just allocated a "checking on children " slot to keep up their story.

by **crusader** 27.06.24 8:13

Can you just remind me please Paddingtom, where I can read that Gerry and Russ were missing at the same time.
Thanks.

by Paddingtom 27.06.24 8:19

off the top of my head, I think it was on the timeline writings that were done on the stickerbook by the team...got to take the dog to vet now but will try and find when I get back think it also said daughter was ill and jane and russ were swapping over care. if you cant find it I will look when I get back.

by **Bluebagthepirate** 27.06.24 8:41

crusader wrote:Can you just remind me please Paddingtom, where I can read that Gerry and Russ were missing at the same time.
Thanks.

In the brick... according to Tapas Bar staff statements, only the big tall one left - Russell.

by **crusader** 27.06.24 8:53

It doesn't show Russ and Gerry missing at the same time on the time sheets.
Will have to wait for Paddingtom to show where it is.

by Paddingtom 27.06.24 9:41

right, sorry about that...

imeline 1 (as per sticker book above)

8:45. pm

Matt returns 9.00-9.05 - listened at all 3
- all shutters down

Jerry 9.10-9.15 in the room + all well
? did he check

9.20/5 - ~~Ella~~ Jane checked 5D sees stranger & child

9.30 - Russ. ~~Ella~~ Matt check all 3

9.35 - Matt check see twins

9.50 - Russ returns

9.55 - Kate realised Madeleine

10pm - Alarm raised

Timeline 2 (as per sticker book above)

8.45pm. all assembled at poolside for food

9.00pm. Matt Oldfield listens at all 3 windows 5A, B, D ALL shutters down

9:15pm Gerry McCann looks at room A ? Door open to bedroom

9:20pm Jane Tanner checks 5D - [sees stranger walking carrying a child]

9.30 Russell O'Brien in 5D. Poorly daughter
l

9.55pm

10:00pm. Alarm raised after Kate

Gerald

Weve got Russ missing 9.30 - 9.55. weve got Gerry missing 9.10/15 and not coming back. Those of us that belive the smiths, know he was mising at 10.00. Im sure some staff said the tall blonde one was missing too (russ)...that seems undisputed.

I dont want to seem like a broken record, but this is my point. they were both missing at the same time and I belive staging an abduction.

I notice in Bernts book that he has heard the theory of a decoy being used but dismisses it because it "serves no purpose". For my money, it serves an enormous purpose, the crucial thing being it wass to get an abductor on cctv.. Its one thing opening and closing doors windows and shutters and saying theres been an abduction, its another thing completely to have him on cctv dressed the same as Patsy Sagresman. Sagres is only 12 miles by sea from Pdl. No problem for a speedboat or some sort of decent boat. It was a completlye feasible story to make up. When I first heard the theory of a decoy, I couldnt see the point either, until I realised it was for cctv. then it all made sense.

by **crusader** 27.06.24 10:55

I see what you are saying, Gerry goes to do his check
9 to 9:15 no return time back at table.
Thanks for that.
By the way, can anyone read what it say's on the right hand timeline at 9:55