Re: Digging to start next week (continuation of automatically locked thread) - UPDATE... starting today 2/6/14

[Hongkong Phooey]

My camera bag weighs a ton when I have 3 cameras lenses etc .inside 
putting a bag over your back the straps over your arms like a rucksack.you can carry the weight of a small child no problem .somebody Gerrys build  easier still.

The contents of the bag would have been almost 4 year old about 90 cm and weighed around 15-20kg. This was to be carried into shrubland by a guy in tennis gear (yes he could be on his way to one of the many tennis courts) but do you not consider that if seen someone would remember and possibly identify the culprit given that the proposals it was broad daylight?

[whatliesbehindthesofa]

I'd like to state my agreement with other posters in this thread that we need an updates-only thread relating to the PdL searches, as this one is now full of theorizing and fiction-writing.  

[Baldrick]

A body would wrap the case up

How? All I can see that it establishes is confirmation that she is dead. Depending on the extent of decay, an autopsy might also confirm how she died, but I don't see how it provides any more proof of anyone's guilt than already exists, such as cadaverine in 5a

Cause off death would provide a lot IMO

Assuming that its possible to determine the cause of death, what would it provide except the cause of her death? What would it prove in terms of identifying the person responsible? How would it wrap the case up?

Cause of death would eliminate certain scenarios out. It could prove accidental or intentional. Lets be honest no one knows what information the police already have. A cause of death could wrap things up imo. I don't think the police are digging blind, I think they will be working from info passed on, but that's just my opinion.

[wicksy]

Just read this in the Mirror (my bold):

Ground-penetrating radar is being used to probe for disturbed earth.
On Wednesday [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] where Madeleine was last seen.

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[ChippyM]

   What about scrubland that has plants growing past head height for privacy?

Could be.  But remember that as of that evening there were large numbers of police and locals out there physically searching.  OK they were looking for a lost, alive girl but if she had been buried or dumped in that scrubland, the risk of her being found at some early stage was massive.  Plus there is the later problem of how to move her - without being seen by the overlooking apartments.  Could it be done? Possibly.  Likely?  I'd say no.

And if this theory is true, then it means there has not been a tip-off, that SY are digging speculatively, and that nothing useful is likely to be found.  Unfortunately.  

I'm just struggling to see the scenario that has Maddie ever in that scrubland.  And looking for bags / toothbrushes makes no sense when those are far easier to dispose of in public bins.

Well I tend to side with the theory that the death was earlier, before the alarm was raised. I can't explain the Smithman sighting in that context though, not any better than any of the various theories already put forward.

[Hongkong Phooey]

The caveat to that scenario PM would imo be that carrying a near 4 year old child in a bag presumably using a shoulder strap, would be difficult / hard work to look remotely like just another tennis player. The sheer weight would surely stop you from attempting to carry it any real distance without looking suspicious. All imo

You are probably talking about a weight of 15kg - the same as mid-sized suitcase.  You wouldn't wish to go too far but carrying suitcase-weight is certainly within the capabilities of Gerry if he had been so inclined. The tricky part is then taking her out of the blue-bag and hiding her.  Hard to see that being done in broad daylight in open ground...  which tends to suggest that this version continues not with a shallow grave but rather a freezer somewhere within suitcase-carrying distance of 5A.  Which in turn suggests that there is nothing to find in the current dig area (in this version).

   Gerry is very fit he has done all kinds of races and triathalons, many of the Tapas lot are also quite fit. The average 3 year old weighs as you say around 15kg or around 30lbs in old money.  I would have thought a distance that took 5 minutes to walk wouldn't be that much of a problem for such a fit person, especially if you were VERY motivated and possibly a break was taken at some point.

Sorry, but a child aged 3, and a small one at that, for 5 minutes is no problem. At all. For anyone.
The Falklands TAB / YOMP was 90 km in 3 days with 36 kg

Your not getting it, it's about a tennis player who has what looks like a fairly normal tennis bag however they would probably be a bit more strained having 15-20kg in weight in their bag. Someone might notice that you headed into scrubland with a big bag. How many tennis players/holiday makers wander round PDL with a bag full of kit the size of Andy Murray etc.

What's all that Falklands reference and what does it have to do with this case?

[Hongkong Phooey]

I'd like to state my agreement with other posters in this thread that we need an updates-only thread relating to the PdL searches, as this one is now full of theorizing and fiction-writing.  

Agreed, we have a spcific section for theories.

[ChippyM]

Just read this in the Mirror (my bold):

Ground-penetrating radar is being used to probe for disturbed earth.
On Wednesday [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] where Madeleine was last seen.

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Interesting wording but then you click on the link and the first line of the article is ,

"Police investigating the [url=http://www.mirror.co.uk/all-about/madeleine mccann]disappearance of Madeleine McCann [/url]have started using ground-penetrating radar equipment to probe for disturbed earth on scrubland near where she was last seen."

    It could be that some of the media have an inkling about what prompted the dig.... but maybe not.

[Tony Bennett]

Maybe Smithman is Gerry with another child, not as a decoy as such but rather as a shield or distraction in the event of him being seen, as he does a final check on the burial place he had sourced earlier in the day .

I thought that HelenMeg's 'decoy' theory about Smithman was about as convoluted as you could get, but evidently I was wrong, you have come up with something even more unlikely.

Like HelenMeg, though, you propose a theory that involves one of the Tapas 7 parents volunteering for their young blonde daughter to be carried around the streets of Praia da Luz on a cold night dressed only in pyjamas. 

These two theories (yours and HelenMeg's) are theories without a shred of evidence, whereas at least my suggestion that Smithman was fabricated (whether or not you agree) does have a considerable amount of circumstantial evidence to support it.

[Cristobell]

   What about scrubland that has plants growing past head height for privacy?

Could be.  But remember that as of that evening there were large numbers of police and locals out there physically searching.  OK they were looking for a lost, alive girl but if she had been buried or dumped in that scrubland, the risk of her being found at some early stage was massive.  Plus there is the later problem of how to move her - without being seen by the overlooking apartments.  Could it be done? Possibly.  Likely?  I'd say no.

And if this theory is true, then it means there has not been a tip-off, that SY are digging speculatively, and that nothing useful is likely to be found.  Unfortunately.  

I'm just struggling to see the scenario that has Maddie ever in that scrubland.  And looking for bags / toothbrushes makes no sense when those are far easier to dispose of in public bins.

As the child had only been missing for 50 minutes, I doubt anyone was looking for a grave!

They were however looking in dumpsters, potholes, tunnels and road works.  I don't think the police are looking for the first resting place, I think they are looking for the last one.  Whoever went to the trouble of digging a hole in that impenetrable ground, would know the difficulties of doing it twice!  We know the sleepy town of PDL was bustling with journalists and people rushing to help, but all eyes were on the parents - everytime they appeared they were followed by an entourage and hundreds of paparazzi.  Other parts of the town may have been desolate - the parents had successfully shifted the focus of the search away from PDL and outwards towards Morocco, Spain, and every other country on their European tour.  

If I recollect correctly the ground searches around PDL finished within a month - possibly sooner.  After that time it would have been safe(ish) to move a body.   Of course the 'movers' did not know that British search expert Mark Harrison would be called in to do a detailed scoping exercise of the area.  Mark Harrison had nothing whatsoever to go on, and there must have been a collective sigh of relief from TM when the police decided not to pursue MH's recommendations.      

From the timeline, the body must have been in its final resting place before Mark Harrison arrived on the scene.  Perhaps it was moved hastily because MH had arrived on the scene?  In any event, the damage had been done, the cadaver scent was in the hire car, and even leaving the boot open day and night did not get rid of it.  The dogs alerts changed everything for the McCanns.

[ChippyM]

"
Sniffer Dogs Resume Madeleine McCann Search
British police ask for more time to search scrubland in Portugal, as sniffer dogs and forensics teams continue to scour the area.
By Tom Parmenter, Sky News Correspondent, in Praia da Luz
British police sniffer dogs have resumed their work on scrubland in a Portuguese resort on day four of an extensive search in the Madeleine McCann case.
One of the dogs from South Wales Police was working with its handler at dawn, scouring areas within the cordon that have not yet been explored."

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[Markus 2]

On Wednesday [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] where Madeleine was last seen.

So they are going with the idea that it was Madeline seen by the Smiths

[cassius]

Maybe Smithman is Gerry with another child, not as a decoy as such but rather as a shield or distraction in the event of him being seen, as he does a final check on the burial place he had sourced earlier in the day .

I thought that HelenMeg's 'decoy' theory about Smithman was about as convoluted as you could get, but evidently I was wrong, you have come up with something even more unlikely.

Like HelenMeg, though, you propose a theory that involves one of the Tapas 7 parents volunteering for their young blonde daughter to be carried around the streets of Praia da Luz on a cold night dressed only in pyjamas. 

These two theories (yours and HelenMeg's) are theories without a shred of evidence, whereas at least my suggestion that Smithman was fabricated (whether or not you agree) does have a considerable amount of circumstantial evidence to support it.

Thank you for your kind response.
The decoy idea seems implausible to me too.
The Smith sighting seems plausible .
Surely GM didn,t carry his dead daughter.
Just trying to marry all the posibilities together.
Truth is a rare visitor to TM hopefully justice will visit them.

[Truthmustout]

A whole in the ground is being explored further.
After the area was explored/examined with radar and digging equipment, the area is now sealed off with two white tents.

Its not yet clear what lead them to that spesific area or what has been found in the whole.

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(exuse my english ;P )

[DonNewbery]

Maybe Smithman is Gerry with another child, not as a decoy as such but rather as a shield or distraction in the event of him being seen, as he does a final check on the burial place he had sourced earlier in the day .

I thought that HelenMeg's 'decoy' theory about Smithman was about as convoluted as you could get, but evidently I was wrong, you have come up with something even more unlikely.

Like HelenMeg, though, you propose a theory that involves one of the Tapas 7 parents volunteering for their young blonde daughter to be carried around the streets of Praia da Luz on a cold night dressed only in pyjamas. 

These two theories (yours and HelenMeg's) are theories without a shred of evidence, whereas at least my suggestion that Smithman was fabricated (whether or not you agree) does have a considerable amount of circumstantial evidence to support it.

Thank for your kind response.
The decoy idea seems absurd to me too.
The Smith sighting seems plausible .
Surely GM didn,t carry his dead daughter.
Just trying to marry all the posibilities together.
Truth is a rare visitor to TM hopefully justice will visit them.

'Surely GM didn't carry his dead daughter.'

I don't think you've thought this through. If (quite a big if, but not that huge) Smithman was GM, then of course he was carrying his dead daughter. He had a problem to solve, and, it seems, he solved it rather cleverly. Though perhaps fate is catching up with him now.

[noddy100]

I agree. I think Smithman was Gerry and I think its far more likely he was carrying his daughter than anyone else
I don't subscribe to the decoy too convoluted and I think GM would be more than capable of switching into detached mode

[jellycat]

Just a thought, but the way in which the child was being carried... Is that how people generally carry their sleeping children? or is it how one would carry a dead on?

[Ghengis]

I'd like to state my agreement with other posters in this thread that we need an updates-only thread relating to the PdL searches, as this one is now full of theorizing and fiction-writing.  

Complete agree! Lets concentrate on the search here...

[Cristobell]

A body would wrap the case up

How? All I can see that it establishes is confirmation that she is dead. Depending on the extent of decay, an autopsy might also confirm how she died, but I don't see how it provides any more proof of anyone's guilt than already exists, such as cadaverine in 5a

Cause off death would provide a lot IMO

Assuming that its possible to determine the cause of death, what would it provide except the cause of her death? What would it prove in terms of identifying the person responsible? How would it wrap the case up?

It is amazing the information examiners can get from the remains of a murder victim.  In the tragic case of Caylee Anthony, her body was found with duct tape around her head and they discovered chloroform had been used.  

The way in which the body is laid to rest also gives clues as to who buried the child.  A parent for example, despite the heinous thing they are about to do, will ensure the body is wrapped and perhaps even given a treasured possession.  A stranger wouldn't bother with any niceities, in fact in most cases, they wouldn't bother to dig a grave, they would discard the body at the earliest opportunity.

[Guest]

Can I ask you all a favour please. When posting any latest news on this thread including news stories, tweets etc, can you at the start of your post put Latest News in bold if you don't want to contact mods with it, and then we can pick it out easily and transfer it to UPDATE thread. Thanks.

[whatliesbehindthesofa]

Can I ask you all a favour please.  When posting any latest news on this thread including news stories, tweets etc, can you at the start of your post put Latest News in bold if you don't want to contact mods with it, and then we can pick it out easily and transfer it to UPDATE thread.  Thanks.

Many thanks for the update thread candyfloss, and also apologies for the additional work this will create for yourself and NFWTD - it is very much appreciated!

  

[sofieellis]

Just a thought, but the way in which the child was being carried... Is that how people generally carry their sleeping children? or is it how one would carry a dead on?

It depends which way you mean. It would be difficult to carry a (nearly 4 yr old across the ams, in the way Tanner described, as they would get very heavy very quickly that way. It would be more normal to carry a child of that age more upright, in the way the Smith family described.

[1soapy]

Hi TB et al.

Just a query/possible answer on one point you raised.

Rearding, if a decoy (which I'm not sure I hold to this view anyway, but if true), I'd say that the reason no-one else saw/few people saw Smithman person was to simulate reality. If a decoy, it would not be a very realistic one to have everyone see you, if pretending to be walking somewhere so no-one saw you. You'd expect it to be done with seeming secrecy, I'd say.

'Make sure someone see's the carrier, but make it looks like you tried to avoid being seen, but didn't quite get away with a complete success.'.

If no-one sees you, it defeats the object.
If lots of sightings, it defeats the object because it does not look like someone trying to discretely hide someone.

There are many other/genuine problems with this decoy theory, but just wanted to mention why this is not necessarily one.

[jellycat]

that's what I figured. thanks for clarifying softieellis

[cassius]

Maybe Smithman is Gerry with another child, not as a decoy as such but rather as a shield or distraction in the event of him being seen, as he does a final check on the burial place he had sourced earlier in the day .

I thought that HelenMeg's 'decoy' theory about Smithman was about as convoluted as you could get, but evidently I was wrong, you have come up with something even more unlikely.

Like HelenMeg, though, you propose a theory that involves one of the Tapas 7 parents volunteering for their young blonde daughter to be carried around the streets of Praia da Luz on a cold night dressed only in pyjamas. 

These two theories (yours and HelenMeg's) are theories without a shred of evidence, whereas at least my suggestion that Smithman was fabricated (whether or not you agree) does have a considerable amount of circumstantial evidence to support it.

Thank for your kind response.
The decoy idea seems absurd to me too.
The Smith sighting seems plausible .
Surely GM didn,t carry his dead daughter.
Just trying to marry all the posibilities together.
Truth is a rare visitor to TM hopefully justice will visit them.

'Surely GM didn't carry his dead daughter.'

I don't think you've thought this through. If (quite a big if, but not that huge) Smithman was GM, then of course he was carrying his dead daughter. He had a problem to solve, and, it seems, he solved it rather cleverly. Though perhaps fate is catching up with him now.

DonNewbury,i have thought this through too many times for my own good!Was trying to accomodate the theory of PM that the body was disposed of earlier in the afternoon by GM.

[PeterMac]

It is amazing the information examiners can get from the remains of a murder victim.  In the tragic case of Caylee Anthony, her body was found with duct tape around her head and they discovered chloroform had been used.  

And in the case of Ötzi, the Iceman, found on the pass between Austria and Italy, who has been there for 5,000 years

Talk about a cold case. Researchers in Italy and Switzerland have announced that they have determined the cause of death for the Iceman. He’s that incredibly well preserved frozen mummy that was found sticking out of a glacier in the Alps near the Italy-Austria border, about 10,000 feet up, back in 1991. He’d been lying there for about 5,000 years.

In 2005, the mummy was subjected to noninvasive multislice computed tomography, often called a CT scan. In a paper published this week in the Journal of Archaeological Science, the scan found a lesion in the left subclavian artery. That’s the big blood vessel underneath the clavicle, or collarbone. The lesion was apparently cause by an arrowhead that’s still lodged in the Iceman’s back. A large hemotoma extends into the surrounding tissue. Modern records of such injuries indicate that the Iceman survived for only a short time after suffering this injury. There’s no statute of limitation on murder, and his killers are still at large. Global warming may yet reveal the perpetrators, should a dying glacier set them free.

[uppatoffee]

article in the guardian today [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Madeleine McCann: police begin fourth day of Praia da Luz scrubland search
Officers continue scouring patch of overgrown land including concealed shaft discovered beneath sheet of corrugated iron

• [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] and [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] in Praia da Luz
  
  
• [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.], Thursday 5 June 2014 10.45 BST
  

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[size=12]British police with sniffer dogs check an area of scrubland during the search in the Praia da Luz. Photograph: Philip Toscano/PA

Detectives using sniffer dogs have begun a fourth day of searches in dense scrubland a short walk from where [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] was last seen alive seven years ago.
Officers continued scouring the patch of overgrown land on Thursday morning using two springer spaniels that were deployed in the search for murdered schoolgirl April Jones.
As detectives returned to the 15-acre site in the Portuguese holiday resort of Praia da Luz, more details emerged about two key search sites that have become the focus of the investigation over the past three days.
One of the sites is a concealed shaft in the ground discovered by detectives beneath a sheet of corrugated iron. Forensic officers wearing protective clothing and face masks examined the site for several hours on Wednesday, erecting a white tent to shield their work from the glare of the world's media.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]Police search land and undergrowth in the Portuguese resort. Photograph: Virgilio Rodrigues/Barcroft Medi
Portuguese newspapers reported on Thursday that this site was a disused storage box where children used to play. The shaft, measuring around 5ft by 3ft (150cm by 90cm), was covered by mounds of earth and a corrugated iron sheet, which is thought to have concealed the hole for years.
Another key area of interest for detectives was said to be a grave-like hole, where officers used ground penetrating radar before erecting a white tent and carrying out digging work.
Under the headline "False grave deceives geo-radar", the newspaper Correia da Manhã reported that a site "with characteristics similar to a grave" was discovered but officers later concluded that it was "not compatible with that of a body".
Detective Chief Inspector Andy Redwood, the Scotland Yard officer leading the operation, spent about an hour at this site with British officers and Faro's Polícia Judiciária director, Mota Carmo, on Wednesday, inspecting the discovery himself from inside the police tent.
Detectives will on Thursday examine the sewerage system below the hilly scrubland using micro-cameras and fibre-optic cables, according to Correia da Manhã.
Redwood and his team of British investigators arrived at the search site at 9.30am on Thursday, declining to speak to journalists as his accreditation was checked by armed Portuguese police officers guarding the parameter of the site.
Scotland Yard has formally applied to extend the ground-level searches into next week.
The operation was initially expected to end on Friday but progress has been slow in the meticulous search a short distance from where the then three-year-old girl was last seen in 2007.
The painstaking investigative work, which began on Monday, is being delayed by a need to clear the sites using strimmers and chainsaws.
It is expected that the searches will now stretch into a second week, after Scotland Yard applied to extend the operation as they await formal approval from Portuguese police.
Madeleine's parents, Kate, 46, and Gerry, 45, are being kept abreast of developments in the first ground-level search since those conducted immediately after her disappearance in May 2007.


[/size]

[russiandoll]

I also believe Smithman carried a decoy child, most likely daughter of JT.

This amounts to a suggestion that as part of the 'plot', Jane Tanner and Russell O'Brien sat down and planned for Russell O'Brien, Gerry McCann or someone else to take their three-year-old daughter through the streets of Praia da Luz at around 10.00pm on 3 May 07, whilst leaving their one-year-old in the care of one or both of them. (Or as you say, it might have been one of the other children).

Now, following your decoy theory, it follows that the whole purpose of the decoy is to be seen carrying the child, so can you explain why the only claimed sighting of your 'man-with-decoy-child' was just the one (alleegedly) seen by the Smiths and by no-one else? 

And in your 'decoy' theory, what happens to your 'decoy' child after man-with-decoy-child has passed the Smiths? Does the child return with decoy man later? Or do they sleep somewhere else that night?

Moreover, given a pretty cool early May evening, around 13C or 55F I believe, your theory involves carrying a child in pyjamas at night through the streets of Praia da Luz (and maybe back again). Also, how are they to know in advance that the child will be asleep and remain asleep throughout the walk? She might suddenly stir, wake up and cry.

As explanations for 'Smithman' go, how reaslistic is this, HelenMeg?

 As realistic as your conspiracy theory involving millions of pounds and from the very top of the powers that be, without a rational reason for what and why.

 Pjs could have had a top and bottoms on underneath. You see outerwear, that does not mean no clothes underneath.
 Sedation could have ensured a non-waking child.

 Do you think you could pose an objection to a theory you disagree with in a courteous manner? I refer to your post elsewhere where you were grateful that a few members here besides yourself could see through the charade... implying anyone who sees this as anything other than a massive conspiracy is less blessed with incisive intelligence than the whitewash believers.

[Tony Bennett]

Hi TB et al.

Just a query/possible answer on one point you raised.

Rearding, if a decoy (which I'm not sure I hold to this view anyway, but if true), I'd say that the reason no-one else saw/few people saw Smithman person was to simulate reality. If a decoy, it would not be a very realistic one to have everyone see you, if pretending to be walking somewhere so no-one saw you. You'd expect it to be done with seeming secrecy, I'd say.

'Make sure someone see's the carrier, but make it looks like you tried to avoid being seen, but didn't quite get away with a complete success.'.

If no-one sees you, it defeats the object.

If lots of sightings, it defeats the object because it does not look like someone trying to discretely hide someone.

There are many other/genuine problems with this decoy theory, but just wanted to mention why this is not necessarily one.

Still more ridiculous than anything I've seen so far.

"Look, you go out as a decoy, stick your three-year-old in pjyamas like Madeleine's, look, I know it's a bit cold, but this is going to work - trust me! - just make sure you're seen by one or two people but not too many. Hide somewhere after you've walked to the beach, I'll give you a bell on the mobile and give you further instructions after we've raised the alarm".

[russiandoll]

A body would wrap the case up

How? All I can see that it establishes is confirmation that she is dead. Depending on the extent of decay, an autopsy might also confirm how she died, but I don't see how it provides any more proof of anyone's guilt than already exists, such as cadaverine in 5a

Cause off death would provide a lot IMO

Assuming that its possible to determine the cause of death, what would it provide except the cause of her death? What would it prove in terms of identifying the person responsible? How would it wrap the case up?

 If they find a body but also find a prior resting place, it rules out a stranger I would think.
 If they find a prior resting place and clues. but don't find a final resting place, I imagine the same.