Professor Horan: Ideas for a podcast about the McCann case

BlueBag wrote:

stonesunturned wrote: (and I'm telling you, the "cadaver dog" razzle dazzle has been drastically overrated.)

Why is it overrated?

The dogs will be deemed "incredibly unreliable", next. I mean, who would say something like that?

Yes, I agree, the dog's behavior is intriguing. But that's just a hunch, and it depends 100 percent on the opinion of their owner. We have to take his word for something that HE had a LOT to gain from--unless the dogs DIDN'T react. That would be a big letdown, FBI wise. 

You GOTTA be careful when a "case" gets this much publicity. If he had claimed that he could prove Madeleine was buried under center court at Wimbledon, he'd run the risk of being proven wrong. But, as it stands, there is no way to prove him wrong. And clearly, he was reeeaallly hoping his dogs would come through in this high-stakes event. In his own video, he is clearly signalling to the dogs, and dogs REALLY hate to disappoint their owners. So, any subconscious signals on his part (let alone conscious) might account for their reactions. If they had gone to the rental car lot unannounced and the dogs picked out the right car on their own, I'd be more impressed. This was very carefully set up, and for all we know, police let the handler know which vehicle, etc. He certainly knew which apartment was the one. Did the dogs pick up on that? In his other cases, the dogs actually found bodies, so they didn't have to "disappoint" their owner. But in these searches, the dogs may have sensed HIS eagerness. It happens a lot with drug-sniffing K-9s. Google "Clever Hans." But forensics failed to confirm any definite link to Madeleine. NEITHER the trace evidence in 5A, NOR the trace evidence in the vehicle, could be confirmed. That's 0/2. I'm not hanging my hat (let alone my neck) on 0/2. Keep in mind, in the Casey Anthony case, forensics found hard, irrefutable evidence as a result of the cadaver dog. Not, "highly likely..."

Last, but not least, the problem with the cadaver dogs is, IF they really did "hit" on traces of Madeleine's remains, that's a REALLY complicated theory to have to explain. If you want to bet the farm on the dogs, go ahead. Don't let me stop you. But I'm not.

stonesunturned wrote:Yes, I agree, the dog's behavior is intriguing. But that's just a hunch, and it depends 100 percent on the opinion of their owner. We have to take his word for something that HE had a LOT to gain from--unless the dogs DIDN'T react. That would be a big letdown, FBI wise. 

So now you are intimating that Martins Grimes is corrupt.

Keep talking.

I will ask again... have you been in contact with the McCanns, their friends/relatives or representatives?

Let me put it another way: There is NO OTHER EVIDENCE that Madeleine is dead, let alone that her dead body was ever in 5A or the vehicle. The dogs and their owner are IT.

A clue? Maybe. ANY corroboration? Nope. That's just not enough for me to hang someone. If other people want to call it cased closed, that's okay with me. But I need more.

What does Grimes get if his dogs come up with nothing? Nothing. Less than nothing. I mean, it wouldn't even help the McCanns. But, if they "hit..." He gets a lucrative contract with the FBI and lots of free publicity. What do the PJ get if the dogs come up with nothing? Think about that. It would be VERY easy for virtually anyone in law enforcement to obtain a tiny amount of corpse residue (you can buy it for training dogs.) There was a LOT of pressure to get a specific result, and plenty of time. It's not totally unheard of for police to plant evidence on suspects they "know" are guilty. Everyone "commenting" on this "thread" already "believes" XXX. What makes you think a small town cop in the global spotlights is any less susceptible to wishful thinking than you? 

Okay, you've already decided the McCanns killed Madeleine and moved her body around X number of times. Okay. But I haven't jumped to that conclusion. If that drives you nuts, have a nice trip.

Not that it's the slightest bit any of your business, but apart from remembering this being all over the TV (even here in the States) back in 2007, I had zero interest in this subject until our listeners requested it. I just started looking into it a couple of weeks ago, after the Spring semester ended. I have no opinion one way or the other. I, personally, have no intentions of EVER coming to any conclusions, let alone "solving" anything. But, those first 24 hours have NOT been hashed over ad infinitum, and I certainly found something interesting that Amaral overlooked. Will it lead to something? Who knows?

Back to my question that no one is answering: Do you know if anyone was able to determine whether Gerald McCann knew people in Portugal?

How do you account for Amaral saying the bodily fluid in the car "shows that the body had been refrigerated. If the body had been buried there would have been mummification. The fact that there were fluids points to refrigeration."

The hire car was also seen with the boot open, being aired.

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stonesunturned wrote:Not that it's the slightest bit any of your business, but apart from remembering this being all over the TV (even here in the States) back in 2007, I had zero interest in this subject until our listeners requested it. I just started looking into it a couple of weeks ago, after the Spring semester ended. I have no opinion one way or the other. I, personally, have no intentions of EVER coming to any conclusions, let alone "solving" anything. But, those first 24 hours have NOT been hashed over ad infinitum, and I certainly found something interesting that Amaral overlooked. Will it lead to something? Who knows?

Back to my question that no one is answering: Do you know if anyone was able to determine whether Gerald McCann knew people in Portugal?

One of the directors of the Fund (Edward Smethurst) has been holidaying in Praia da Luz for a number of years, but I don't know if the McCann's knew him before the holiday.

But, being a multimillionaire, I bet he had a big fridge freezer. 

Oh, I see the confusion. I'm not saying XXXXXXX is guilty or not guilty.

AAaaaalllll I'm pointing out is, we do NOT actually KNOW if Madeleine was dead, or alive, when she left 5A. Even if she were dead later, and moved using the vehicle, then that does not necessarily prove she was dead in 5A. 

Is that worded better? Aaaalllll I'm saying is, we need to keep in mind that she MAY have been alive when she left apartment 5A. It's POSSIBLE. And by golly, I see something in those initial reports and witness statements that suggests Amaral just concluded she was dead, and I can see how that led down a blind alley.

Is that easier to understand?

And as Jill pointed out, forensics determined, in the lab, not a dog handler's hunch, that the chemical traces were from a body that had been refrigerated. Like, in a morgue. Aaaalllll any over-eager "helper" had to do was swab a corpse in the morgue and .... Not because they were "corrupt." Maybe simply because they thought they were "helping."

In summary.

The PJ were incompetent.
The dogs mean nothing.
Martin Grimes is corrupt.

It seems you are singing from a hymn sheet

stonesunturned wrote:I have no opinion one way or the other.

You quite clearly do.

stonesunturned wrote:Aaaalllll any over-eager "helper" COULD have swabbed a corpse in the morgue and .... Not because they were "corrupt." Maybe simply because they thought they were "helping."

Wow.

stonesunturned wrote:Not that it's the slightest bit any of your business, but apart from remembering this being all over the TV (even here in the States) back in 2007, I had zero interest in this subject until our listeners requested it.

Again. Have you been in contact with the McCanns, their friends/relatives or representatives?

Please don't say it's none of my business.

Well, you have to admit police set up the car for the "test." And they ALREADY DECIDED what they were hoping to prove. Amaral admits it in his book. Other officers admit it in their reports. They made up their minds as soon as they got there the McCanns were acting "unusual." And the lab test itself suggests a body kept in a morgue. Never thought about that, did you?

Like I said, it's none of your business. 

But thanks for the bit about the "corpse" being refrigerated. You really are helping.

Whew! Long past my bedtime. But it was worth it! Keep up the good work!

BlueBag wrote:Again. Have you been in contact with the McCanns, their friends/relatives or representatives?

Please don't say it's none of my business.

stoneunturned wrote:Like I said, it's none of your business. 

But thanks for the bit about the "corpse" being refrigerated. You really are helping.

Whew! Long past my bedtime. But it was worth it! Keep up the good work!

I'll take that as a yes then.

Although it gets more obvious the longer you speak.

So are you suggesting the whole thing was a hoax? Madeleine left the apartment alive, was later killed or died and then refrigerated? Gerry McCann planned the whole thing prior to the holiday as a huge, fraudulent money making scheme?
Intriguing, but it does involve dismissing the dogs.
And I can't personally do that.

You can't have it both ways either. Either the evidence from the car is phony or it isn't. When Amaral refers to the body being in the hire car, you can't take the evidence gathered from that to formulate an idea that it was in a morgue for some time, but at the same time dismiss the evidence that led to that understanding in the first place. Amaral only developed that theory as a result of the fluids that were found in that car. So where they there or not?

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] ...........I'm intrigued to know the 'bit' that you keep saying MR Amaral missed.......give us a clue.......

I'll also disagree that it was planned and executed very well. It wasn't. As soon as the alarm was raised, holes started appearing. The tapas crew found it necessary to sit down and rip up a sticker book in order to agree a timeline. The account of both parents kept changing and contradicting themselves and each other. First the doors were locked, then they weren't. The window had been forced open, except it hadn't. Nobody could give a proper account of themselves or where they had been, what they had been doing for the previous 24 hours.
Jane Tanner rather conveniently came up with a mysterious figure she saw, expect her account of what he looked like kept changing like the wind.
Their insistence on an abductor was proved to be near impossible as a theory because of their own timeline that they gave. The most impressive part about it is the removal and disposal of the body, which is hardly that original or evidence of being a criminal mastermind.

@ stoneunturned. You do realise, don't you, that Madeleine was discovered missing at around 10 p.m. that's 22 hundred hours, in other words NIGHT TIME. The police arrived around 11 p.m. They began by reacting to the information that a child was missing. There was NO sign of forced entry, no open windows nor jemmied shutters. The missing child's bed was remarkably undisturbed and did not show signs of having been slept in. The other two children who occupied the room from which the child had disappeared were sleeping deeply, giving no sign of having been disturbed by any noise.
 The general concensus among Mark Warner staff was that the child had woken and wandered. With this in mind the P.J. did the sensible thing and, together with O.C. staff and volunteers, organised a search of the resort. Interestingly, the child's parents chose not search for her but instead spent the immediate hours after her "disappearance" contacting the media in the U.K. claiming their child had been abducted and the apartment had been broken into. They later publicly admitted that the break in story was untrue. They also created poster images of the missing child for circulation. However, they opted to use an old picture, showing the missing child at a much younger age (and looking quite different to her current appearance) despite having, allegedly, a photograph taken mere hours before her disappearance!
Neighbours on the two floors above had neither heard nor seen anything unusual, despite the fact that one couple had actually been sitting on their balcony overlooking the garden and back door of the apartment involved, for the ENTIRE DURATION of the "window of opportunity" when the child was allegedly taken. Neither had any of the witnesses around at the time seen anything untoward.
Only one of the Tapas 9 claimed to have seen something suspicious. She swore she had seen a man carrying a child, (matching the description of Madeleine, even down to her clothing) away from the apartment at 9.10 p.m. This has now been accepted as a false alarm, even by Op. Grange.
During your beloved 24 hour period (until 11 p.m. on the night of May 4th) the P.J. questioned the couple and their friends, as well as carrying out a detailed forensic search of the apartment. Both these interviews and the forensic results cast very serious doubts on the story being told to the police. While searches continued the P.J. got on with the business of questioning those staff who had most interaction with the missing child. Their accounts of creche activities do not tally with the official creche records, nor the parent's accounts.
The P.J. obviously did not jump to the sole conclusion that her parents were responsible for her disappearance, as you allege. This is proven by the effort they put into immediately tracing a Polish couple who, it was alleged, had tried to kidnap a child days earlier at a nearby resort. This cock and bull tale wasted valuable police time. P.J. requests for background information from the U.K on the child and her family were not acceded to.
Finally, it was a leading U.K. police expert who suggested that they were looking for a body, not a live child. I'm pretty sure Mark Harrison's experience and expertise in this field more than rivals your own! it was he who suggested calling in Martin Smith and the dogs.
Finally, on this side of the Atlantic, Martin Smith's and his dogs' reputations needed no enhancement whatsoever from the Madeleine case. They were already long accepted as the best in the business. You speak of Martin Smith's move to the U.S. as a boon to his career. Some of us regard it as a punishment for the threat he presented to those determined to hide the truth of what happened to Madeleine!

nglfi wrote:I'll also disagree that it was planned and executed very well. It wasn't. As soon as the alarm was raised, holes started appearing. The tapas crew found it necessary to sit down and rip up a sticker book in order to agree a timeline. The account of both parents kept changing and contradicting themselves and each other. First the doors were locked, then they weren't. The window had been forced open, except it hadn't. Nobody could give a proper account of themselves or where they had been, what they had been doing for the previous 24 hours.
Jane Tanner rather conveniently came up with a mysterious figure she saw, expect her account of what he looked like kept changing like the wind.
Their insistence on an abductor was proved to be near impossible as a theory because of their own timeline that they gave. The most impressive part about it is the removal and disposal of the body, which is hardly that original or evidence of being a criminal mastermind.

Maybe they deliberately made the staged abduction look chaotic to keep the focus on Thursday otherwise the PJ might have begun to think things happened earlier in the week.

Maybe that was all part of the plan.

Phoebe, I think you're getting Martin Grime mixed up with Smithman!