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Prisoner's dilemma

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Prisoner's dilemma

Post by PeterMac on Thu May 24 2012, 19:03

Looking up Adam Smith and came across the famous one, but this popped out.
It may be of relevance to the Tapas7 and TM as a whole. I wonder if it came up at the meeting in Rothley.
The Prisoner's Dilemma

The "Prisoner's Dilemma" is a very famous "paradox" in Game Theory. It describes two people in a simple situation, acting in an informed manner, both attempting to maximise their wellbeing, and yet making choices that lead to an unnecessarily poor outcome for both.

Two people, who are suspected of being accomplices in a crime, are held prisoner in separate, non-communicating cells.
The police visit each prisoner, and tell both that if neither confesses, each will be sentenced to two years in jail.
However, if exactly one prisoner confesses, implicating each other, the one who confesses will get off scot-free as a reward, and the other, who didn't confess, will receive a punitive sentence of five years.
If each confesses and implicates the other, both will be sentenced to three years.

What should a prisoner in this situation do?
Suppose that the other prisoner doesn't confess.
Then the best course of action is to confess, and go free.
Even if the other prisoner does confess, it will be better to have done likewise - at least the sentence will be lower.

Both prisoners will reason thus, so both will confess and end up serving sentences of three years - even though, if both had remained silent, each would have served a sentence of only two years.



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Re: Prisoner's dilemma

Post by roy rovers on Thu May 24 2012, 21:42

No doubt the old bill will try it when they haul in the T7 for questioning. Surprised that they haven't tried it already.
roy rovers

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Re: Prisoner's dilemma

Post by aiyoyo on Fri May 25 2012, 05:54

After they have taken the abduction hoax so far I doubt Mccanns and friends would confess even if under pain of torture.

Unless Maddie's remains are found pointing to them I think they are home free and dry (IMHO anyway).

They proved they have hide of elephant that I suspect the dark cloud of suspicion forever hovering over them is least of their concern.


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Re: Prisoner's dilemma

Post by jmac on Fri May 25 2012, 08:41

Probably the best strategy for this group is to avoid going to Portugal for questioning and have a good lawyer ready just incase. Probably best to keep your head down and keep your mouth shut.

I sometimes wonder who is the weakest link in the group. Surely they can`t all be as brazen as Kate and Gerry. It can`t be easy to live a lie especially when you have to watch that pair`s performance on such a regular basis and there`s no chance of pushing what really happened to the back of your mind.


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