The Complete Mystery of Madeleine McCann™

A very warm welcome to The Complete Mystery of Madeleine McCann™ forum.

Please log in, or register to view all the forums, then settle in and help us get to the truth about what really happened to Madeleine Beth McCann. Please note that your username should be different from your email address!

When posting please be mindful that this forum is primarily about the death of a three year old girl.

(Please note: if you register with the sole intention of disrupting or spamming, please don't expect to be a member for too long.)

Many thanks,

Jill Havern
Forum owner

Prisoner's dilemma

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Prisoner's dilemma

Post by PeterMac on 24.05.12 19:03

Looking up Adam Smith and came across the famous one, but this popped out.
It may be of relevance to the Tapas7 and TM as a whole. I wonder if it came up at the meeting in Rothley.
The Prisoner's Dilemma

The "Prisoner's Dilemma" is a very famous "paradox" in Game Theory. It describes two people in a simple situation, acting in an informed manner, both attempting to maximise their wellbeing, and yet making choices that lead to an unnecessarily poor outcome for both.

Two people, who are suspected of being accomplices in a crime, are held prisoner in separate, non-communicating cells.
The police visit each prisoner, and tell both that if neither confesses, each will be sentenced to two years in jail.
However, if exactly one prisoner confesses, implicating each other, the one who confesses will get off scot-free as a reward, and the other, who didn't confess, will receive a punitive sentence of five years.
If each confesses and implicates the other, both will be sentenced to three years.

What should a prisoner in this situation do?
Suppose that the other prisoner doesn't confess.
Then the best course of action is to confess, and go free.
Even if the other prisoner does confess, it will be better to have done likewise - at least the sentence will be lower.

Both prisoners will reason thus, so both will confess and end up serving sentences of three years - even though, if both had remained silent, each would have served a sentence of only two years.



Posts : 10170
Reputation : 159
Join date : 2010-12-06

Back to top Go down

Re: Prisoner's dilemma

Post by roy rovers on 24.05.12 21:42

No doubt the old bill will try it when they haul in the T7 for questioning. Surprised that they haven't tried it already.
roy rovers

Posts : 469
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2012-03-04

Back to top Go down

Re: Prisoner's dilemma

Post by aiyoyo on 25.05.12 5:54

After they have taken the abduction hoax so far I doubt Mccanns and friends would confess even if under pain of torture.

Unless Maddie's remains are found pointing to them I think they are home free and dry (IMHO anyway).

They proved they have hide of elephant that I suspect the dark cloud of suspicion forever hovering over them is least of their concern.


Posts : 9611
Reputation : 319
Join date : 2009-11-28

Back to top Go down

Re: Prisoner's dilemma

Post by jmac on 25.05.12 8:41

Probably the best strategy for this group is to avoid going to Portugal for questioning and have a good lawyer ready just incase. Probably best to keep your head down and keep your mouth shut.

I sometimes wonder who is the weakest link in the group. Surely they can`t all be as brazen as Kate and Gerry. It can`t be easy to live a lie especially when you have to watch that pair`s performance on such a regular basis and there`s no chance of pushing what really happened to the back of your mind.


Posts : 121
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2011-09-29

Back to top Go down

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
McCanns apt & hire car

Blood and cadaver alerts
dismissed by UK Government

Retired DCI Gonçalo Amaral: "The English can always present the conclusions to which they themselves arrived in 2007. Because they know, they have the evidence of what happened - they don't need to investigate anything. All this is now a mere 'show off'."

Retired murder DCI Colin Sutton: "I would also like to make the point that Operation Grange was so restricted from the start as to be destined to fail."

Assistant Commissioner Mark Rowley made public on national TV that Operation Grange is a complete fraud.

Ex-DCI Andy Redwood had a "revelation moment" on BBC's Crimewatch on 14th October 2013 when he announced that Operation Grange had eliminated the Tanner sighting - which opened up the 'window of opportunity', in accordance with their remit, to allow the fake abduction to happen.

Despite "irrelevant behaviour" from blood and cadaver dogs in the McCann's apartment, on Kate McCann's clothes, and in the car they hired three weeks after Maddie disappeared, Ex-Chief Inspector, Ian Horrocks, said: "The thought that Kate and Gerry McCann had anything to do with the death of their daughter is frankly preposterous."

Gerry McCann called for example to be made of 'trolls'. SKY News reporter Martin Brunt doorstepped Brenda Leyland on 2 October 2014. She was then found dead in a Leicester hotel room. Brenda paid the price. She paid with her life.

Ex-Deputy Chief Constable, Jim Gamble QPM, congratulated SKY reporter, Martin Brunt, on twitter for doorstepping Brenda Leyland on behalf of Gerry McCann.

Prime Minister Theresa May introduces Prime Suspect Kate McCann to Royalty: The Duchess of Gloucester.

Good Cop Down: The reality of being a police whistleblower