Holiday weather

by **PeterMac** 01.01.14 15:14

Holiday weather

As was said a long time ago, pretty much a disaster.
The Algarve - despite what Gerry clearly believes - is on the North Atlantic. This is a cold sea, and brings with it cold air temperatures. April is still spring.
When we look at the statements and rogatories of the group, all say the same thing. After the first day the weather was dreadful. It was cold, and even raining, necessitating wearing all their available warm clothes; two families at least saying they did not lift the shutters all week; the McCanns driven back from the beach after 20 minutes because the children did not like the cold wet sand.
And it only seems to have started to change significantly by the evening of Thursday 3rd.

Matthew Oldfield
4078 "Do you remember what the weather was like then?"

Reply "Erm, it wasn't, erm, not specifically, it was a better day on the Thursday than it was on the Wednesday, because we had rain, and I think it was sort of warmer and bit more clear, I don't remember the, it may have been a bit cloudy, but I don't remember specifically".
* * *
4078 "And we covered the weather, you can’t remember it being a particularly windy night.”
Reply "No I don’t remember much about the weather on that night err I’m just thinking more about when we were actually running along the beach and along the err and along the front doing the, the search and I don’t recall it being err particularly windy but as I think we said but last time it was windy enough for us to sail in the afternoon but they didn’t necessarily translate it to have been windy in the evening.”

Rachel Oldfield
Reply   “. . probably that the weather had been a bit better that day and (inaudible) remember when the rest of us were there, we talked about Matt falling off the boat and Russell rescuing him and you know,

Fiona Payne
I actually am wondering whether we went to the beach at all before Thursday, just because I’m thinking about the weather and I remember thinking at the time, it’s such a shame for the kids that we haven’t really gone to the beach, because, you know, that a part of the reason we chose the resort”.

1485 “Yeah”.
Reply “But it had been so kind of cool in the afternoons it, erm, hadn’t been much fun. So I don’t want to commit to the fact that we went there, I think Thursday may well have been”.
1485 “The first time?”
Reply “We definitely went on the Thursday and I think that might have been the first time we actually did that as a group, minus Kate and Gerry”.
* * *
And I remember the Thursday was a bit of a transition day, as I say, you know, with the weather, it just seemed to warm up, it was sunnier, erm, and it was a very pleasant evening, you know, it was a nice sunny evening, warm”

TANNER
4078    “What was the weather like when you were there?”
Reply    “It wasn’t, again it wasn’t brilliant, I think it was nicer in the UK.”
4078    “So you went on the wrong day.”
Reply    “Yeah, I think err so it wasn’t, that’s one reason why we didn’t open the shutters to open the window or anything in that room, it wasn’t actually really hot at all, it was actually quite cloudy in the days and at night it was actually quite chilly.”
4078    “So it wasn’t sort of going in the pool weather or, only if you’re very brave.”
Reply    “No it was really, really cold,
* * * *
No, yeah, because the Thursday was actually probably one of the first nice days, which is why I think we had gone later in the day, we took all the kids down to the beach because it was actually nicer weather. So, yeah, the Thursday was probably the first day I think the sun had more come out in the day”.

I remember I was wearing, because it was cold, I’d got Russell’s big, I’d borrowed one of his, erm, fleeces, so I’d got a big sort of fleece, it probably came down to about here, but then I’d got flip-flops on and cropped trousers, because I’d only got, I didn’t take jeans,

Diane Webster
4078 "But Wednesday stands out to you because you know the weather wasn’t very good?”
Reply "Wednesday I remember because it was raining in the morning, we thought oh no tennis, you know, but we did have the tennis later on because I remember err we were waiting for the courts to dry.”

GM AND KM First statements
Apart from the Kids Club and the apartment, they only went to the beach with Madeleine and the other children once, and only for a very short period of time, because the weather was unstable, which happened between 1.30 and 3 p.m., when they returned to the club.

GM Second statement
They were at the beach for about 20 minutes, the deponent and MADELEINE having put their feet in the water. During this time the weather changed with a cloudy sky and cold, therefore they went to a terrace at a café near the beach, on the left, where they bought five ice-creams and two drinks.

Carole Tranmer (Mrs Fenn’s niece)
CT 'I believe it rained one day; it was a bit windy, besides this... it was wonderful weather 'not for sun bathing’, even though there were people doing just this but it was not really sun bathing weather.

[Ed. I have taken this to be an observation in the English style of ironic humour, to be interpreted as “it was the sort of weather in which NOT to sun bathe !” ]

In any event the pattern is well established

Thursday is described as “transition day”, the weather beginning to change, with the evening being rather better.
Fiona Payne, a close friend and always ready to assist, says the evening was warm.
Jane Tanner, not a close friend, complained bitterly about the cold and made an issue of going to collect and then wear her partners thick fleece.

It was “a bit better” on Thursday, - but this is in comparison with Wednesday when it was raining and the tennis was cancelled -
Thursday is the first day in their collective recollection that the sun had begun to come out. It was a bit more clear. But still not warm enough for sunbathing.

And so on.

Against this gradual change of weather, with the final part of the evening clear and calm, is Kate’s strange assertion that there were no fewer than two very strong gusts of wind. The first strong enough to slam a door she was actually holding at the time, against the weight and strength of her hand, wrist and arm, and the second a few moments later which ripped both full length curtains from where they were trapped behind the bed and the wicker chair against the wall, and blew them out horizontally in the style of the finest “Hammer Horror Film”, as she described and so vividly demonstrated in several videos and interviews, a long time after the alleged event.

The whooshing curtains and slamming door did not appear until 14 May 2009 and is repeated, with important alterations, in the book from 2011, at p.71
(The book version is bizarre, since it involves the door slamming against the control of Kate’s hand, wrist and arm,
then the door being left open whilst Kate checks the parents’ room,
and then the curtains whooshing - but this time without slamming the door.)

None of this was recorded in the statements of 4th May, 10th May, nor in the Arguido interviews

What Kate has failed to notice is that PdL is a small town on the Atlantic coast.
This means that it has a small fishing fleet
This in turn means that weather conditions are and have always been very important to the fisher-folk.
This in turn means that, as with any other sea faring nation, the system of Meteorological reporting and the keeping of records has become highly specialised and extremely detailed.
And those reports are in the public domain, and go back a very long way.

And from examination of those records we can say with certainty that the descriptions of the weather by the Tapas7 are correct.
The weather that week was ghastly, heavily overcast, even with some light rain on the Wednesday.
On Thursday it began to change. By mid to late afternoon the cloud was beginning to break up, and by late evening had largely dispersed, leaving a clear and still, and fairly cold night.

Clear and still being the operative words.

Curtains ? Door ?

by Guest 01.01.14 15:29

PeterMac wrote:

Curtains ? Door ?

In the way that even the biggest lie also contains the smallest grain of truth, I've always felt that the slamming door has some significance. I suspect that at some point, somebody or something got slammed in it or by it - it's just the exact circumstances that are open to interpretation.

Unless there is some subconscious link to the beginning of a chain of events that would lead eventually to imprisonment, perhaps?

by Woofer 01.01.14 15:58

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

From the above link, we can see the wind direction was WNW and the windspeed was 14.4km/h at 10pm.

Would that have been blowing into the front window? - not sure which way the block faces.

From the Beaufort Wind Scale this is only a force 3 :-

3

8-12
mph

12-19
kph

7-10
knots

Gentle Breeze

Leaves and small twigs move, light weight flags extend. Large wavelets, crests start to break, some whitecaps.

by Woofer 01.01.14 16:14

Of course, the most puzzling about Thursday`s weather is that the clouds were just beginning to break in the afternoon, yet seeing the `pool picture`, one would think it was a heatwave !

by mysterion 01.01.14 16:34

Could never understand why wealthy parents would go to the Algarve for a family holiday at the end of April. I certainly wouldn`t. But maybe they were there for another reason. GM said that he wasn`t there for fun. Out of season is conference time at upmarket hotels.

by Doug D 01.01.14 16:44

5a is virtually N - S, with the front window a couple of degrees to the left (west). With the ~~gusts~~ gentle breeze, the front window would probably be sheltered from a WNW wind, but with these sort of buildings you never really know, as any wind may whip around stairwells, walls etc. and can often be funnelled & magnified.

by Daisy 01.01.14 16:56

mysterion wrote:Could never understand why wealthy parents would go to the Algarve for a family holiday at the end of April. I certainly wouldn`t. But maybe they were there for another reason. GM said that he wasn`t there for fun. Out of season is conference time at upmarket hotels.

Me neither Mysterion. This aspect continues to intrigue me. It seems odd that there were so many wealthy people that chose Praia Da Luz that fateful week. Some of them extremely wealthy and very well connected. And maybe it's just coincidence that so many of the other guests belonged to the medical community. I don't know.

by mysterion 01.01.14 17:10

I would have expected the answer to be in DrA `s book, or is it?

by Guest 01.01.14 17:20

Bridget O'Donnell: "Praia da Luz was the nearest Mark Warner beach resort and this was the cheapest week of the year - a bargain bucket trip, for a brief lie-down."

The McCanns had to take two mortgage payments out of the fund, whilst they were still hosted for free on the OC complex. I cannot find a reliable quote, that they were "skint" before the holiday. But Gerry was on an annual GBP 75,000 job. And they didn't have a buffer to pay GBP 4,000 whilst not working ... ? Both Philomena and Patricia have stated that the family had to help out with mortgage payments, as they were skint, while staying in Portugal without income.

by mysterion 01.01.14 18:03

Do you know the significance of Mark Warner? If they were broke, why go somewhere so upmarket?

It raises the question about why they were broke in the first place in the situation of a full investigation.

It is all very odd. My perception of the McCanns has been completely wrong.

by Guest 01.01.14 18:58

mysterion wrote:
It raises the question about why they were broke in the first place in the situation of a full investigation.

Blackmail?

It was fashionable at the time though for the middle classes to be leading unbelievably aspirational lifestyles over and above even what they could afford - hence the banking crisis.

Actually I'm surprised they didn't have a second home somewhere warm, they were pretty much prime candidates.

by bobbin 01.01.14 19:09

Woofer wrote:Of course, the most puzzling about Thursday`s weather is that the clouds were just beginning to break in the afternoon, yet seeing the `pool picture`, one would think it was a heatwave !

My thoughts exactly too, woofer. That picture was definitely not taken on 3rd. This needs to go on the 'last photo' thread along with the weather reference. I shall copy and paste both. high5

by Guest 01.01.14 19:36

bobbin wrote:
Woofer wrote:Of course, the most puzzling about Thursday`s weather is that the clouds were just beginning to break in the afternoon, yet seeing the `pool picture`, one would think it was a heatwave !
My thoughts exactly too, woofer. That picture was definitely not taken on 3rd. This needs to go on the 'last photo' thread along with the weather reference. I shall copy and paste both.

If the weather was rotten all week, sounds like it wasn't even taken on that holiday. Are there any photos of the holiday with the weather looking dull?

by Clocker 01.01.14 21:49

Daisy wrote:
mysterion wrote:Could never understand why wealthy parents would go to the Algarve for a family holiday at the end of April. I certainly wouldn`t. But maybe they were there for another reason. GM said that he wasn`t there for fun. Out of season is conference time at upmarket hotels.
Me neither Mysterion. This aspect continues to intrigue me. It seems odd that there were so many wealthy people that chose Praia Da Luz that fateful week. Some of them extremely wealthy and very well connected. And maybe it's just coincidence that so many of the other guests belonged to the medical community. I don't know.

I agree and also what I find intriguing is the fact that most of the people holidaying there were professional 2 parent families, each with 2 children (excluding the Mccanns) usually comprising of a girl aged 3 years and a baby under 1 year, usually a boy. And according to Bridget O Donnell all the girls blonde haired. in fact Bridget stipulated there was 10 little 3 year old girls in their group to boss the 2 boys around.
That's my first ever post on any forum but I've been reading here for months. I'm impressed by the amount of research that people undertake.
I do wish there was an optional 'like' button for each post, there has been so many times I've wanted to press one :)

by Woofer 01.01.14 22:17

Welcome Clocker welcome2

by Clocker 02.01.14 0:26

Woofer wrote:Welcome Clocker

Thank you Woofer thanks

by worriedmum 02.01.14 1:23

Your research is really interesting PeterMac, thank you. The weather sounds dreary on the whole, and I think the damp-looking tennis photo reinforces this idea. But which day could have been hot enough for Madeleine to get the sunburn on her arm in the tennis photo?

by canada12 02.01.14 1:33

I'm pretty certain there must be other photos taken on the same day / same time of day as the tennis photo, the last photo, etc, by other holidayers at the Ocean Club. All the police would have to do, in order to verify just how much sun there was at those exact moments, would be to look at other photos taken around the same time. Easy to get a list of who else was staying there, contact them, ask them for photos.

by **PeterMac** 02.01.14 7:51

Didn't Gamble impound all the photos ?

by dentdelion 02.01.14 10:43

Free airtravel for infants/under two's might explain why it is popular to bring small children on holidays. Also the under four's do not have complication of school schedules to adhere to.

by Woofer 02.01.14 13:06

PeterMac wrote:Didn't Gamble impound all the photos ?

That`s a good question. Did he have the authority to do such a thing?

by **PeterMac** 02.01.14 13:16

Woofer wrote:
PeterMac wrote:Didn't Gamble impound all the photos ?

That`s a good question. Did he have the authority to do such a thing?

I have no idea, but doubt it.
And why was the camera sent to Hampshire for analysis ?
Why not Lisbon?
Who sent it.
Who authorised its leaving the jurisdiction of the PJ ?
Did they know ?
Had a proper full copy of the memory stick been made before it was released ?

by tiny 02.01.14 13:44

If gamble did not have authority then he is another one who has harmed the search for Madeleine and is in it up to his neck in this deception

by RIPM 02.01.14 13:54

dentdelion wrote:Free airtravel for infants/under two's might explain why it is popular to bring small children on holidays. Also the under four's do not have complication of school schedules to adhere to.

But it would not explain the holiday in this case, as MW charged for children/infants in 2007

by Guest 02.01.14 14:05

RIPM wrote:
dentdelion wrote:Free airtravel for infants/under two's might explain why it is popular to bring small children on holidays. Also the under four's do not have complication of school schedules to adhere to.
But it would not explain the holiday in this case, as MW charged for children/infants in 2007

And of course the real big money didn't weigh in until after the Payne party (or whoever - that bit's decidedly vague) booking had been made.

ETA: Just realised I posted that on the wrong thread, but I will leave it here too for posterity.

by mysterion 02.01.14 14:11

When our 2 children were between 1 and 5, we used to go to the Med on holidays. We either went in May or June avoiding the Whit holiday break. We could afford to go at this time yet we didn`t have the earnings of 2 doctors. No way would we have opted for the end of April.

Even if the McCanns were broke, it doesn`t explain why the other doctors chose it. IMO, the McCanns had to be there for an important reason which has been kept quiet. Probably business. Might explain why they didn`t use creche faciities in the evening to save money.

by The Snapper 03.01.14 13:33

I posted a lot on this subject back in the days of the Mirror forum

the weather history for Faro is here: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

you can change the dates to get the whole week

The key points concerning this thread are as follows

There was some rain on the Wednesday morning, but the afternoon was dry, so Dianne Webster and others were spot on

When the 'last photo' was said to have been taken, the temperature was 19C and there were only scattered clouds (ie mainly sunny) but it was breezy (25-30k), nearly 20mph

in a suntrap out of the wind this would feel warm. In the wind one would expect long hair to be blowing around. The wind was WSW, so going from left to right in the photo (they are facing south at the small circular pool if you look at Google Earth). Are there indications of wind in the photo?

A gust might even have blown Maddie's white hat off, or Amelie's pink one with the very wide brim

All week the temperatures hadn't been bad but the keen wind would have taken the edge off them, hence the perception that it was colder than it was. There were variable amounts of cloud

At the time of the alleged abduction the wind was down to around 15k and the temperature was 15-17C, so cool but not as cold as has been suggested in some places

The wind was from a WNW direction, so blowing roughly across 5A rather than through it

by The Snapper 03.01.14 14:50

When the last photo was taken, the wind was high force 4 or low force 5. Does the photo reflect that?

WIND COMFORT STUDIES
Extended Land Beaufort Scale showing wind effects on people.
Beaufort Description Wind Speed at Effect on people
0 Calm
1 Light air No noticeable wind
2 Light breeze Wind felt on face
3 Gentle breeze Hair disturbed, clothing flaps, newspaper difficult to read
4 Moderate breeze Raises dust and loose paper, hair disarranged
5 Fresh breeze Force of wind felt on body, danger of stumbling when entering a windy zone
6 Strong breeze Umbrellas used with difficulty, hair blown straight, difficult to walk steadily, sideways wind force about equal to forwards walking force, wind noise on ears unpleasant

also see here [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

the last photo is here [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

by bobbin 03.01.14 18:48

The Snapper wrote:When the last photo was taken, the wind was high force 4 or low force 5. Does the photo reflect that?

WIND COMFORT STUDIES
Extended Land Beaufort Scale showing wind effects on people.
Beaufort Description Wind Speed at Effect on people
0 Calm
1 Light air No noticeable wind
2 Light breeze Wind felt on face
3 Gentle breeze Hair disturbed, clothing flaps, newspaper difficult to read
4 Moderate breeze Raises dust and loose paper, hair disarranged
5 Fresh breeze Force of wind felt on body, danger of stumbling when entering a windy zone
6 Strong breeze Umbrellas used with difficulty, hair blown straight, difficult to walk steadily, sideways wind force about equal to forwards walking force, wind noise on ears unpleasant

also see here [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

the last photo is here [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

It was obviously very windy indeed, because the reflection in Gerry's sunglasses has been blown a full 90 degrees upwards. big grin

Amelie's hat isn't being blown off because she's a pretty little girl, and the wind lulled just at that particular moment.
Maddie's hair shows no sign of movement because she wasn't pasted into that particular 'family' photo until sometime after the curtains had whooshed through the open but closed window that night and slammed the bedroom door shut. sarcastic