Edgars search area - the mathematics and logistics

by DCB1 07.01.10 14:50

Some posters are asking how the search to the underground lair within 10 miles of PDL is going. Some posters even suggest that the mccanns should have searched this area when they went back to PDL recently.

Edgar said 10 miles from PDL. This would create a circle of 10 miles radius.

Using our old friend Pi, the area of this circle would be 3.14 x 10 x 10 = 314 square miles.

Because PDL is on the coast it can be assumed that half the area would be in the sea - so half the area = 157 square miles on land.

This is the search area.

To put this into perspective - imagine a strip of land one mile wide, from London to Cardiff. Include in that strip, scrub land, farmland, bushes, trees, villages and towns.

That is the area that Edgar is referring to.

by Guest 07.01.10 14:54

And many walled and secured Villas.

by vaguely 07.01.10 14:55

thank you DCB - that puts it in to perspective a bit.

by Guest 07.01.10 15:09

Yes and Edgar ought to have covered it all on foot, with no help from the PJ.- by now don't you know?

by Ruby 07.01.10 16:59

I'm sure real police would help but for some reason they aren't being asked.

by Guest 07.01.10 17:00

Ruby wrote:I'm sure real police would help but for some reason they aren't being asked.

Because the case is either archived, or closed if you speak to some.

by Ruby 07.01.10 17:03

Archived, not closed.

Don't ask, don't want.

by Guest 07.01.10 17:04

Trouble is when people phone the PJ up with info they are told it is closed, and that she is dead.

by vaguely 07.01.10 17:20

RR< do you have any link to where this is being discussed. I have never heard about this.

ty.

by DCB1 07.01.10 17:22

rockyrobin wrote:Trouble is when people phone the PJ up with info they are told it is closed, and that she is dead.

That's a very bold statement to make.

by Autumn 07.01.10 17:23

Strange that the McCanns have never mentioned once that they believe her to be held in an underground lair near PDL - one can only assume that either they dont believe Dave or they know for sure that she isnt there.
Even the most loyal McCann fan must acknowledge that, if they truly believed Dave Edgar, they would use some of the Funds to search every bit of area with a fine tooth comb within that 10 mile radius.

by Guest 07.01.10 17:26

Autumn wrote:Strange that the McCanns have never mentioned once that they believe her to be held in an underground lair near PDL - one can only assume that either they dont believe Dave or they know for sure that she isnt there.
Even the most loyal McCann fan must acknowledge that, if they truly believed Dave Edgar, they would use some of the Funds to search every bit of area with a fine tooth comb within that 10 mile radius.

Think you will find it was mentioned the first time Gerry went to Portugal. He spoke of his frustrations and also it was in the papers. Not reached that part of Nuthall yet?

by vaguely 07.01.10 17:27

I think it's toothed.

Just before Mr Bennett gets here.

ETA, oh my bad, can be either. You're safe.

by Autumn 07.01.10 17:34

rockyrobin wrote:
Autumn wrote:Strange that the McCanns have never mentioned once that they believe her to be held in an underground lair near PDL - one can only assume that either they dont believe Dave or they know for sure that she isnt there.
Even the most loyal McCann fan must acknowledge that, if they truly believed Dave Edgar, they would use some of the Funds to search every bit of area with a fine tooth comb within that 10 mile radius.

Think you will find it was mentioned the first time Gerry went to Portugal. He spoke of his frustrations and also it was in the papers. Not reached that part of Nuthall yet?

Have you got a link please?

Why the sarcy comments RR? DCB started this thread and I have responded in a reasonable manner - you do him no favours by behaving like a petulant child.

by Finally 07.01.10 17:35

Hi
Thank you DCB for a nice visual of the area, it makes us more measurement challenged folk appreciate how big an area it actually is.

Even though it is a big area wouldn't it make sense maybe to use some of the fund money to employ men and maybe bulldozers, or whatever machinery would be needed, to begin searching there? It can't be impossible surely and would go some way to actually finding the little girl if Mr Edgar's thoughts are correct?

Take care

by DCB1 07.01.10 17:36

Logistics.

Lets say that a line of searchers spread 5 yards apart are employed to search.

1760/5 = 352 people

Lets say that they can search open ground at what, 2 miles per hour?

157/2 = 78.5 hours

352 x 78.5 = 27632 hours

National minimum wage is £5.80 per hour

27632 x £5.80 = £160,265

So yes - the fund certainly had that money to carry out the search.

However - that is a bare calculation based on open ground.

Take into account the villages and towns in the 10 mile radius and the practicality of getting into every single building - what have you got?

by vaguely 07.01.10 17:39

Plus if you're talking about a live child it's unlikely that anybody is going to sit tight knowing a search is progressing towards them.

Is there not some statistic on the geographical distance someone is likely to be held from where they were taken? Surely if it was as simple as searching nobody would ever remain missing.

by DCB1 07.01.10 17:42

Personally I think Edgar was stupid to suggest it in the way that he did.

by vaguely 07.01.10 17:42

yup. he's a strange sort.

by Finally 07.01.10 17:44

Cor blimey, 352 people?

Why are the most practical things to do sometimes the most difficult?

Thanks for putting it into perpsective - I am a bit naff at visualising distances as my poor car finds out on ocassions much to my husband's despair. big grin

Take care

by DCB1 07.01.10 17:49

Lagos - with a population of 18,000 is within 10 miles of PDL

by aiyoyo 07.01.10 18:32

Surely Edgar was paid that kind of money to be specific .

A stupid idea of 157 square miles area wide is useless.

Why didnt the mccanns sack him for incompetent!

Actually 352 people is not a lot. If the mccanns were determined and involved the police to get mobilising, then village volunteers would easily surpass that number. Plenty villagers would do it for nothing simply becuase no one wants to live with a criminal in their corner.

by Guest 07.01.10 18:33

A lot of the villagers rely on Petty theft to supplement their income.

by DCB1 07.01.10 18:36

rockyrobin wrote:A lot of the villagers rely on Petty theft to supplement their income.

Near where you live or any other particular place in mind?

by Autumn 07.01.10 18:51

DCB1 wrote:Personally I think Edgar was stupid to suggest it in the way that he did.

Incompentent rather than stupid but yes, you have to wonder why he gave interviews to the press if he seriously believed Madeleine to be held in that region. Why not conduct a thorough search, paid for out of the Fund, before going to the press? Had she been held in captivity surely, following Edgar's public interviews, anyone would have to be insane not to move her somewhere else or kill her.

So why are the McCanns retaining Dave Edgar - what is his real purpose?

by vaguely 07.01.10 18:52

I guess somewhere under his inability to think before he speaks he has a lot of experience.

by Autumn 07.01.10 19:01

I think that 'guess' is the operative word here. Given the bad track record of the McCanns' previous PI Agencies, wouldn't you think that they would learn from previous mistakes. Seems to me, the more incompetent and corrupt these agencies are, the more likely the McCanns are to employ them.

by vaguely 07.01.10 19:06

Autumn wrote:I think that 'guess' is the operative word here. Given the bad track record of the McCanns' previous PI Agencies, wouldn't you think that they would learn from previous mistakes. Seems to me, the more incompetent and corrupt these agencies are, the more likely the McCanns are to employ them.

I don't think Edgar is incompetent or corrupt. But I do think he's not overly press savvy.

I don't know where you start with employing PIs. I wonder whether there's a link between PIs and the dodgier side of life. Who you know and what you know type of thing. I don't imagine you'd get very far as a PI unless you had contacts.

Maybe I just watched too much Magnum as a kid.

by aiyoyo 07.01.10 19:27

DCB1 wrote:
rockyrobin wrote:A lot of the villagers rely on Petty theft to supplement their income.

Near where you live or any other particular place in mind?

I was just going to say where RR live maybe.