winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
The Complete Mystery of Madeleine McCann™ :: British Police / Government Interference :: Smithman: Crimewatch Reconstruction and the appeal for new info / suspects
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winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Today I tweeted two links to my Smithman articles, in response to someone on Twitter who was 100% sure that one of the two Smithman e-fits, first shown in the October 2013 Crimewatch McCann Special, was Gerry McCann. He also tweeted an image which 'proved' the likeness (obviously the other efit image doesn't fit his theory.
This drew the following tweet from 'winnower1':
Jul 30 @zampos Tony, your analysis of the Smith family's actions & statements is seriously flawed. What's your motivation? Truth matters. [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
This tweet contained two quite serious accusations:
1 That my analysis of Smithman was not only flawed but 'seriously flawed', and
2 The suggestion that my analysis was flawed because I was not interested in the truth, but following some darker, hidden agenda.
These kinds of accusations are two a penny on Twitter of course, where people make cheap, goading accusations like this all the time, without having a care about justifying or explaining them.
I searched the internet for someone called 'winnower', and immediately found a blog called 'The Winnower'. Prominent on this blog was this statement about the discussion of ideas:
"The Winnower is founded on the principle that all ideas should be openly discussed, debated, and archived".
That sounded very good, and I thought I must be in the right place.
But no, I was in the wrong place, 'winnower1' is someone called 'Win' who seems to spend an awful lot of time on the [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] hashtag exchanging insults with various other folk, either McCann-supporters, or other argumentative people.
I did see on her Twitter account this very good statement, however:
"Truth, like gold, is to be obtained not by its growth, but by washing away from it all that is not gold. ~Leo Tolstoy".
Yes, that's very good. I agree with both statements from both 'winnowers'.
I did have a look at winnower1's tweets and retweets etc. and I'm afraid it wasn't very promising.
Today she had tweeted link to Blacksmith's latest blog article.
There were links to the work of Isabelle McFadden, who calls herself either 'Isabelle McFabulous' or the 'QueendePortugal', and who has played some nasty tricks on people and whose reputation for truth is suspect.
She also spends a lot of time tweeting with 'JillyCL' - friend of Isabelle McFadden - who were both involved in the 'Soutergate' controversy and were in contact with McCann Team member Brian Kennedy, plotting something or other which backfired on them both.
JillyCL is also well known for angrily denying that Robert Murat's flight to Faro on 1 May, his actions whilst translating for the Portuguese police, and his 17 proven lies about what he was really doing during those first three days back in Portugal, had anything whatsoever to do with Madeleine's disappearance. On that, we disagree.
Be that as it may, winnower1 has made her allegation so I've opened this thread so that she - or anyone else for that matter - can point out to me exactly where my analyses of Smithman and the Smith family statements are 'flawed', whether 'seriously' or otherwise.
Whilst many have disagreed with my views on Smithman, to be honest I've seen very little detailed criticism or challenges to what I've written about the alleged Smithman 'sighting'.
So I'd positively welcome, in the spirit of searching for the truth, details of what the flaws are supposed to be, and have the opportunity to discuss and respond to them.
I will send winnower1 a link to this thread
This drew the following tweet from 'winnower1':
Jul 30 @zampos Tony, your analysis of the Smith family's actions & statements is seriously flawed. What's your motivation? Truth matters. [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
This tweet contained two quite serious accusations:
1 That my analysis of Smithman was not only flawed but 'seriously flawed', and
2 The suggestion that my analysis was flawed because I was not interested in the truth, but following some darker, hidden agenda.
These kinds of accusations are two a penny on Twitter of course, where people make cheap, goading accusations like this all the time, without having a care about justifying or explaining them.
I searched the internet for someone called 'winnower', and immediately found a blog called 'The Winnower'. Prominent on this blog was this statement about the discussion of ideas:
"The Winnower is founded on the principle that all ideas should be openly discussed, debated, and archived".
That sounded very good, and I thought I must be in the right place.
But no, I was in the wrong place, 'winnower1' is someone called 'Win' who seems to spend an awful lot of time on the [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] hashtag exchanging insults with various other folk, either McCann-supporters, or other argumentative people.
I did see on her Twitter account this very good statement, however:
"Truth, like gold, is to be obtained not by its growth, but by washing away from it all that is not gold. ~Leo Tolstoy".
Yes, that's very good. I agree with both statements from both 'winnowers'.
I did have a look at winnower1's tweets and retweets etc. and I'm afraid it wasn't very promising.
Today she had tweeted link to Blacksmith's latest blog article.
There were links to the work of Isabelle McFadden, who calls herself either 'Isabelle McFabulous' or the 'QueendePortugal', and who has played some nasty tricks on people and whose reputation for truth is suspect.
She also spends a lot of time tweeting with 'JillyCL' - friend of Isabelle McFadden - who were both involved in the 'Soutergate' controversy and were in contact with McCann Team member Brian Kennedy, plotting something or other which backfired on them both.
JillyCL is also well known for angrily denying that Robert Murat's flight to Faro on 1 May, his actions whilst translating for the Portuguese police, and his 17 proven lies about what he was really doing during those first three days back in Portugal, had anything whatsoever to do with Madeleine's disappearance. On that, we disagree.
Be that as it may, winnower1 has made her allegation so I've opened this thread so that she - or anyone else for that matter - can point out to me exactly where my analyses of Smithman and the Smith family statements are 'flawed', whether 'seriously' or otherwise.
Whilst many have disagreed with my views on Smithman, to be honest I've seen very little detailed criticism or challenges to what I've written about the alleged Smithman 'sighting'.
So I'd positively welcome, in the spirit of searching for the truth, details of what the flaws are supposed to be, and have the opportunity to discuss and respond to them.
I will send winnower1 a link to this thread
____________________
Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"
Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Have to laugh sometimes:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] Sorry, as a matter of policy I don't visit Troll Hate sites. [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Presumably hasn’t got the time, after spending 24/7 spouting on [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]!
(It is thought by some that this is Michael Wright, though I have my doubts)
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] Sorry, as a matter of policy I don't visit Troll Hate sites. [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Presumably hasn’t got the time, after spending 24/7 spouting on [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]!
(It is thought by some that this is Michael Wright, though I have my doubts)
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
"Truth, like gold, is to be obtained not by its growth, but by washing away from it all that is not gold. ~Leo Tolstoy".
Winnower1 - clearly a tribal alchemist.
I await a reasoned response with pregnant anticipation ..
Winnower1 - clearly a tribal alchemist.
I await a reasoned response with pregnant anticipation ..
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Troll hate sites? - how childish. Geeeez, why can't these people grow up!Doug D wrote:Have to laugh sometimes:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] Sorry, as a matter of policy I don't visit Troll Hate sites. [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Presumably hasn’t got the time, after spending 24/7 spouting on [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]!
(It is thought by some that this is Michael Wright, though I have my doubts)
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Tony Bennett wrote:
She also spends a lot of time tweeting with 'JillyCL' - friend of Isabelle McFadden - who were both involved in the 'Soutergate' controversy and were in contact with McCann Team member Brian Kennedy, plotting something or other which backfired on them both.
What is this please? I did a forum search for 'souter' or 'soutergate' and got no results.
On topic I don't think my views differ to yours at all on the Smith sighting. I find it as reliable as Lourenco's attempted abduction - in other words I think it's a complete fabrication.
I also think there's a distinct possibility that at least a compartment of the Smith family would've already known Gerry by sight from the football match (Manchester United vs AC Milan) shown on the 2nd at Kellys, thanks to Tanner's faux pas. Given that members of the family support Manchester United, and that Miss Chekaya placed Gerry at the Tapas on Tuesday (the only other occasion that an English game would've been observed that week). Likewise Balu/Berry who both said they watched those games.
Kelly's is the only local bar I am aware of that advertises showing live sports.
That adds another (admittedly fuzzy) layer of doubt for me, as they would surely have recognised 'that guy from the bar', especially if he was 'boring the pants off people' during the match...
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
April28th wrote:Tony Bennett wrote:
She also spends a lot of time tweeting with 'JillyCL' - friend of Isabelle McFadden - who were both involved in the 'Soutergate' controversy and were in contact with McCann Team member Brian Kennedy, plotting something or other which backfired on them both.
What is this please? I did a forum search for 'souter' or 'soutergate' and got no results.
REPLY: My bad, sorry. It should have read 'Soustergate'. It concerns the activities of one Mark Souster. The best guide to this strange episode is here: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] It concerns a baffling series of conversations between Brian Kennedy (McCann Team member and head of their private investigations) and two well-known (on Twitter) McCann-sceptics ,Isabelle McFadden and JillyCL. What they were all plotting I don't know, it was all very devious and cloak-and-dagger and when challenged, McFadden and JillyCL were vasive about the whole thing.
On topic I don't think my views differ to yours at all on the Smith sighting. I find it as reliable as Lourenco's attempted abduction - in other words I think it's a complete fabrication.
REPLY: Yes. Almost every witness statement in this case seems to need evaluating as to whether the witness is telling the truth or not.
I also think there's a distinct possibility that at least a compartment of the Smith family would've already known Gerry by sight from the football match (Manchester United vs AC Milan) shown on the 2nd at Kellys, thanks to Tanner's faux pas. Given that members of the family support Manchester United, and that Miss Chekaya placed Gerry at the Tapas on Tuesday (the only other occasion that an English game would've been observed that week). Likewise Balu/Berry who both said they watched those games.
Kelly's is the only local bar I am aware of that advertises showing live sports.
That adds another (admittedly fuzzy) layer of doubt for me, as they would surely have recognised 'that guy from the bar', especially if he was 'boring the pants off people' during the match...
REPLY: According to the PJ investigations following Nuno Lourenco's statement (yet another complete fabrication in the case), there was another football match that week: Chelsea v Liverpool. According to the owner of the Burgau beach bar, Wojchiech Krokowski was discussing that match with him because the Liverpool goalie was Polish. The conversation turned to discussing Krokowski's apparent interest in Portuguese and Brazilian classical music. The bar owner said he could buy some CDs of this type of music at a shop in the Chiada centre in Lisbon. It was a long trip - 200 miles - but Krokowski duly went there the next day, and so it is that we had our one and only photo of Krokowski, this CCTV image:
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Until, that is, Richard Hall featured Krokowski prominently in his second Madeleine documentary, 'The Phantoms'. Just a few weeks later, one Sunday newspaper sent a journalist to Warsaw, and then we had some new photographs of him:
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____________________
Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"
Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Thanks for the link, Tony - I will have a read. I am familiar with their twitter handles but knew nothing about them (aside from McFadden's Youtube output).
Yes - the Chelsea vs. Liverpool match was the 'other English match' I ruled Gerry out of attending in my post, as that was the night Gerry was placed at the quiz night by Chekaya. Liverpool did indeed have a Polish keeper at the time (Jerzy Dudek) so at least one fact in the Krokowski saga was true.
Lourenco's 'selective photo taking skills' are about as plausible as Estrela da Luz's 'disappearing key Smithman CCTV'. I have no idea why Amaral gave soundbites blaming himself for missing the CCTV - after all the intel reached him too late for the footage to have been retained anyway (another possible motive for lateness?).
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Yes - the Chelsea vs. Liverpool match was the 'other English match' I ruled Gerry out of attending in my post, as that was the night Gerry was placed at the quiz night by Chekaya. Liverpool did indeed have a Polish keeper at the time (Jerzy Dudek) so at least one fact in the Krokowski saga was true.
Lourenco's 'selective photo taking skills' are about as plausible as Estrela da Luz's 'disappearing key Smithman CCTV'. I have no idea why Amaral gave soundbites blaming himself for missing the CCTV - after all the intel reached him too late for the footage to have been retained anyway (another possible motive for lateness?).
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
I have my replies from Win/winnower1.
She has sent me two tweets:
@zampos Tony I don't have time to 'debate' the integrity of Martin Smith & family & IMO there is no reason to question their truthfulness.
@zampos No need to analyze my timeline etc. on your forum. Winnowed/Roisin from 3As. My opinion re: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] case hasn't changed for 9 yrs.
So it's OK (for some) to allege against someone that their analysis is 'seriously flawed', claim they are being untruthful AND on top of that to allege an ulterior motive...But not to bother to explain all these wild allegations.
Her only justification, which is about the only real argument I've ever heard in defence of the Smiths, is, quote: "There is no reason to question their truthfulness".
I remain quite willing to continue to debate my analysis of the Smith sighting, or examine any flaws with my arguments, with anyone who has a contrary view.
She has sent me two tweets:
@zampos Tony I don't have time to 'debate' the integrity of Martin Smith & family & IMO there is no reason to question their truthfulness.
@zampos No need to analyze my timeline etc. on your forum. Winnowed/Roisin from 3As. My opinion re: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] case hasn't changed for 9 yrs.
So it's OK (for some) to allege against someone that their analysis is 'seriously flawed', claim they are being untruthful AND on top of that to allege an ulterior motive...But not to bother to explain all these wild allegations.
Her only justification, which is about the only real argument I've ever heard in defence of the Smiths, is, quote: "There is no reason to question their truthfulness".
I remain quite willing to continue to debate my analysis of the Smith sighting, or examine any flaws with my arguments, with anyone who has a contrary view.
____________________
Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"
Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
April28th wrote:Tony Bennett wrote:
She also spends a lot of time tweeting with 'JillyCL' - friend of Isabelle McFadden - who were both involved in the 'Soutergate' controversy and were in contact with McCann Team member Brian Kennedy, plotting something or other which backfired on them both.
What is this please? I did a forum search for 'souter' or 'soutergate' and got no results.
On topic I don't think my views differ to yours at all on the Smith sighting. I find it as reliable as Lourenco's attempted abduction - in other words I think it's a complete fabrication.
I also think there's a distinct possibility that at least a compartment of the Smith family would've already known Gerry by sight from the football match (Manchester United vs AC Milan) shown on the 2nd at Kellys, thanks to Tanner's faux pas. Given that members of the family support Manchester United, and that Miss Chekaya placed Gerry at the Tapas on Tuesday (the only other occasion that an English game would've been observed that week). Likewise Balu/Berry who both said they watched those games.
Kelly's is the only local bar I am aware of that advertises showing live sports.
That adds another (admittedly fuzzy) layer of doubt for me, as they would surely have recognised 'that guy from the bar', especially if he was 'boring the pants off people' during the match...
Kelly's and about 30 others. Do you want the whole list? Do you think Berry/Balu found Kelly's? Cos I don't.
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
I.E. Don't ask difficult questions.Tony Bennett wrote:@zampos Tony I don't have time to 'debate' the integrity of Martin Smith & family & IMO there is no reason to question their truthfulness.
@zampos No need to analyze my timeline etc. on your forum. Winnowed/Roisin from 3As. My opinion re: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] case hasn't changed for 9 yrs.
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Elça Craig wrote:
Kelly's and about 30 others. Do you want the whole list? Do you think Berry/Balu found Kelly's? Cos I don't.
Thanks for the response. I'm not sure why you chose to reply in question form - is there some reason I or others shouldn't be open to new information?
It's only 200m further for Berry/Balu than the Smiths, and that's taking the 'Smithman' route. You implied Balu and Berry wouldn't have found it, but didn't mention Gerry - you realise they were in G6, right? Less than 30m from the McCanns, literally cross Rua Dr Francisco Gentil Martins and you're next to their block.
So if you find them walking to Kelly's implausible, you're at least backing up the idea that Smithman's route makes no sense!
Remember Balu said:
"Neil and I spent two times together watching football games in the local bar."
Berry said:
"Raj and I spent two evenings watching football matches in a local bar."
Their language is quite specific - they both say bar, not pub/restaurant/cafe/other combination, and neither suggest multiple venues. So to say there are 30 bars in the area is somewhat specious.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] appears to be the local 'sports bar hub', and is described as a popular haunt for English residents ('the' bar). There are other bars and places that do/may offer sports though - so what else is nearby?
- Barroca is the nearest bar vicinity wise (being basically opposite Baptista), but [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]; 'TV: TV is on but in one section of the restaurant only and we only show major events such as World Cups etc.'
- Chaplins does not appear to offer sports and prima facie seems focused on food.
- Royal Garden is a Chinese restaurant primarily and I see no evidence they show sports.
- The Rose and Thistle offers English football matches, but is more or less equidistant relative to Kelly's, is less of a 'hub' and is a pub not a bar.
- Luz Tavern and Bull's Pub both offer matches, and are in the same vicinity as Kelly's. Luz Tavern is primarily a restaurant.
- Valentinos does not offer sports and is described as a 'fun restaurant'.
- The Duke of Holland does - but appears to have expanded to such in 2012. Was primarily an Indian restaurant before (is now a multi level bar and restaurant).
- Luzense does but is not aimed at tourists, and is a social club.
- Ondaluz may show games but again is primarily a restaurant.
- Mirage (Millennium) is a possible, being part of the complex and a restaurant/bar combo, as I'm not aware of a functional change in the venue since the name change. But as noted it's not exclusively a bar, and 'as the crow flies' is about 100m further away from G5.
- Paraiso closes at 20:00 so not a venue unless they only watched the first 15 minutes and left...
- Olly's is new as of 2011
- [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] is equidistant depending on the route taken, but would not have had outdoor seating in 2007 and is totally missed if taking the 'Smithman' route. Also described as an English haunt, serves food unlike Kelly's
- Bar Carib is much further away (in the region of 1,300 meters from G5) but does offer sports
- Carlos Bar is closed Tuesdays and Wednesdays (ie closed the two days football matches occurred!)
So venues that can fairly be called 'bars' that show sports (since neither said exclusively 'sports bar'), that I can find, are Kelly's and Nautilus.
For the reasons above I find Kelly's the most likely, Nautilus being in the same vicinity but easily missed, and notably not the haunt of 'Luz regulars' the Smiths. Bar Carib is much too far away.
Please do correct me if I missed something
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Tony Bennett wrote:I have my replies from Win/winnower1.
She has sent me two tweets:
@zampos Tony I don't have time to 'debate' the integrity of Martin Smith & family & IMO there is no reason to question their truthfulness.
@zampos No need to analyze my timeline etc. on your forum. Winnowed/Roisin from 3As. My opinion re: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] case hasn't changed for 9 yrs.
The same truthfulness where Smith upon a later statement said (more or less) it probably wasn't Gerry, after initially suggesting it might have been.
If that isn't enough to smell a rat of misinformation I don't know what is. Add to that Richard Hall's short sharp e-mail received from Smith saying, I'm not Murat's mate. Smell another rat? Clearly Smith has distanced himself from it all.
And on that basis, a pretty useless witness if a court case depended on him.
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
MrNoodles:
‘And on that basis, a pretty useless witness if a court case depended on him.’
Bit of an understatement there, imo.
Based on his published statements, even the most incompetent barrister would absolutely tear any testimony to shreds.
That is to me one of the most amazing things about all of the statements in this case. Virtually none of them would stand up to a proper cross-examination, yet OG for all it’s expense, seemingly blunders on down its mysterious dark alley.
‘And on that basis, a pretty useless witness if a court case depended on him.’
Bit of an understatement there, imo.
Based on his published statements, even the most incompetent barrister would absolutely tear any testimony to shreds.
That is to me one of the most amazing things about all of the statements in this case. Virtually none of them would stand up to a proper cross-examination, yet OG for all it’s expense, seemingly blunders on down its mysterious dark alley.
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Richard Hall offered to interview Martin Smith, which he refused. Very telling, IMO. One would have thought he would be eager to give as much information as possible to someone trying to get to the truth of this case.
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
@zampos Tony I don't have time to 'debate' the integrity of Martin Smith & family & IMO there is no reason to question their truthfulness.
That's pretty much the response I anticipated, it's always the same when Martin Smith's veracity is questioned - the only argument ever offered is 'there is no reason to doubt.....' If you look at it like that, likewise there is no reason not to!
Why is it just assumed that he is a totally honest witness (not that he witnessed anything ?); why is it just assumed that because he's kept a low 'public' profile, he is a dignified reliable upright citizen? Keeping a low 'public' profile could just as easily be a sign of guilt as a sign of innocence.
Why did Mr Smith leave it so long before reporting the sighting and subsequently vacillate about what when where and why? His contribution shows more turbulence than a Boeing 747 negotiating the Bermuda Triangle.
The Tapas group are keeping a low profile - surely that doesn't exonerate any one of them from being complicit in Madeleine McCann's disappearance.
That's pretty much the response I anticipated, it's always the same when Martin Smith's veracity is questioned - the only argument ever offered is 'there is no reason to doubt.....' If you look at it like that, likewise there is no reason not to!
Why is it just assumed that he is a totally honest witness (not that he witnessed anything ?); why is it just assumed that because he's kept a low 'public' profile, he is a dignified reliable upright citizen? Keeping a low 'public' profile could just as easily be a sign of guilt as a sign of innocence.
Why did Mr Smith leave it so long before reporting the sighting and subsequently vacillate about what when where and why? His contribution shows more turbulence than a Boeing 747 negotiating the Bermuda Triangle.
The Tapas group are keeping a low profile - surely that doesn't exonerate any one of them from being complicit in Madeleine McCann's disappearance.
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Tanner and the Smith family were the only people reporting having seen anyone who could/may have been linked to the abduction of Madeleine McCann. So no one saw anything on 3rd May 2007. A perfect crime was committed on that date then?
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Nina wrote:Tanner and the Smith family were the only people reporting having seen anyone who could/may have been linked to the abduction of Madeleine McCann. So no one saw anything on 3rd May 2007. A perfect crime was committed on that date then?
How neatly put
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
No. The 'perfect crime' was committed on another dateNina wrote:Tanner and the Smith family were the only people reporting having seen anyone who could/may have been linked to the abduction of Madeleine McCann. So no one saw anything on 3rd May 2007. A perfect crime was committed on that date then?
____________________
Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"
Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
winnower1 update:
Ben Salmon @Tealtraum
@zampos @winnower1 To be fair calling a position 'seriously flawed' without expanding is kind of sophistic - could you explain here?
Then
@winnower1
@Tealtraum @zampos I agree. Will try to support my statement. Will take a few tweets.
Then
@winnower1
@Tealtraum @zampos There is no indication M Smith & Murat were friends but Smith HAD run across RM before & knew he wasn't man seen May 3.
Then
@winnower1
@Tealtraum @zampos Sorry, out of town guests waiting to leave for restaurant. I will try to explain myself better later.
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Nothing more than this so far
Ben Salmon @Tealtraum
@zampos @winnower1 To be fair calling a position 'seriously flawed' without expanding is kind of sophistic - could you explain here?
Then
@winnower1
@Tealtraum @zampos I agree. Will try to support my statement. Will take a few tweets.
Then
@winnower1
@Tealtraum @zampos There is no indication M Smith & Murat were friends but Smith HAD run across RM before & knew he wasn't man seen May 3.
Then
@winnower1
@Tealtraum @zampos Sorry, out of town guests waiting to leave for restaurant. I will try to explain myself better later.
=================
Nothing more than this so far
____________________
Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"
Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
'THE PHANTOMS'.Nina wrote:So no one saw anything on 3rd May 2007?
Richard D. Hall, released February 2015 >
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Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"
Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Tony Bennett wrote:No. The 'perfect crime' was committed on another dateNina wrote:Tanner and the Smith family were the only people reporting having seen anyone who could/may have been linked to the abduction of Madeleine McCann. So no one saw anything on 3rd May 2007. A perfect crime was committed on that date then?
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Not one more cent from me.
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
April28th wrote:Elça Craig wrote:
Kelly's and about 30 others. Do you want the whole list? Do you think Berry/Balu found Kelly's? Cos I don't.
Thanks for the response. I'm not sure why you chose to reply in question form - is there some reason I or others shouldn't be open to new information?
It's only 200m further for Berry/Balu than the Smiths, and that's taking the 'Smithman' route. You implied Balu and Berry wouldn't have found it, but didn't mention Gerry - you realise they were in G6, right? Less than 30m from the McCanns, literally cross Rua Dr Francisco Gentil Martins and you're next to their block.
So if you find them walking to Kelly's implausible, you're at least backing up the idea that Smithman's route makes no sense!
Remember Balu said:
"Neil and I spent two times together watching football games in the local bar."
Berry said:
"Raj and I spent two evenings watching football matches in a local bar."
Their language is quite specific - they both say bar, not pub/restaurant/cafe/other combination, and neither suggest multiple venues. So to say there are 30 bars in the area is somewhat specious.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] appears to be the local 'sports bar hub', and is described as a popular haunt for English residents ('the' bar). There are other bars and places that do/may offer sports though - so what else is nearby?
- Barroca is the nearest bar vicinity wise (being basically opposite Baptista), but [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]; 'TV: TV is on but in one section of the restaurant only and we only show major events such as World Cups etc.'
- Chaplins does not appear to offer sports and prima facie seems focused on food.
- Royal Garden is a Chinese restaurant primarily and I see no evidence they show sports.
- The Rose and Thistle offers English football matches, but is more or less equidistant relative to Kelly's, is less of a 'hub' and is a pub not a bar.
- Luz Tavern and Bull's Pub both offer matches, and are in the same vicinity as Kelly's. Luz Tavern is primarily a restaurant.
- Valentinos does not offer sports and is described as a 'fun restaurant'.
- The Duke of Holland does - but appears to have expanded to such in 2012. Was primarily an Indian restaurant before (is now a multi level bar and restaurant).
- Luzense does but is not aimed at tourists, and is a social club.
- Ondaluz may show games but again is primarily a restaurant.
- Mirage (Millennium) is a possible, being part of the complex and a restaurant/bar combo, as I'm not aware of a functional change in the venue since the name change. But as noted it's not exclusively a bar, and 'as the crow flies' is about 100m further away from G5.
- Paraiso closes at 20:00 so not a venue unless they only watched the first 15 minutes and left...
- Olly's is new as of 2011
- [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] is equidistant depending on the route taken, but would not have had outdoor seating in 2007 and is totally missed if taking the 'Smithman' route. Also described as an English haunt, serves food unlike Kelly's
- Bar Carib is much further away (in the region of 1,300 meters from G5) but does offer sports
- Carlos Bar is closed Tuesdays and Wednesdays (ie closed the two days football matches occurred!)
So venues that can fairly be called 'bars' that show sports (since neither said exclusively 'sports bar'), that I can find, are Kelly's and Nautilus.
For the reasons above I find Kelly's the most likely, Nautilus being in the same vicinity but easily missed, and notably not the haunt of 'Luz regulars' the Smiths. Bar Carib is much too far away.
Please do correct me if I missed something
Kindly come out to Luz and visit me. Please bring your purse/wallet/stash of cash/credit or debit card.
Let's invent a fun game. We will go out for 3 meals every single day - breakfast, lunch and dinner. If there is a large-screen TV (for sports) you pay. If there isn't, I will pay.
I expect to be as fat as a pig.
Hmm, Pig's Head, 4 large screen TVs. Would that count as one meal or four? Tricky one.
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Both April28th and Elca Craig have knowledge of the bars of Praia da Luz. Very probably, as a local resident, Elca Craig can lay claim to superior knowledge.Elça Craig wrote:Kindly come out to Luz and visit me. Please bring your purse/wallet/stash of cash/credit or debit card.
Let's invent a fun game. We will go out for 3 meals every single day - breakfast, lunch and dinner. If there is a large-screen TV (for sports) you pay. If there isn't, I will pay.
I expect to be as fat as a pig.
Hmm, Pig's Head, 4 large screen TVs. Would that count as one meal or four? Tricky one.
April 28th approaches his analysis of the case as a McCann-sceptic.
By contrast, along with folk like other Praia da Luz residents or regular visitors like Robert Murat, Ralph & Sally Eveleigh (nearby Burgau), Sergei Malinka, Martin Smith, Edward Smethurst, paedophile Sir Clement Freud, Sergei Malinka and Jon Corner, Elca Craig believes that Madeleine was abducted
____________________
Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"
Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".
Tony Bennett- Investigator
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Elça Craig wrote:
Kindly come out to Luz and visit me. Please bring your purse/wallet/stash of cash/credit or debit card.
Let's invent a fun game. We will go out for 3 meals every single day - breakfast, lunch and dinner. If there is a large-screen TV (for sports) you pay. If there isn't, I will pay.
I expect to be as fat as a pig.
Hmm, Pig's Head, 4 large screen TVs. Would that count as one meal or four? Tricky one.
Appeal to ridicule may be 'cute' but doesn't add anything to debate. Tony rightly points out that as a local you have superior knowledge of venues, so it mystifies me that you choose to reply in this manner instead of actually using said knowledge.
Berry and Balu both used the word 'bar' not 'restaurant'. Two blokes going out to have some drinks and watch football matches are infinitely more likely to go to a purposed bar for tourists, drinking and watching games than sit in the corner of a restaurant.
I showed in my post that the only other such venue (Nautilus) was in the same vicinity as Kelly's, there were no other likely locations with the exception of the Millennium, which was also a restaurant, and as the crow flies 100m further away.
At no point have I denied there being venues showing sports - in fact I listed many in my post. Again, it's cute to overlook this and appeal to ridicule - but it adds nothing.
As I said, I am always open to correction, so if you have specific examples of bars (not restaurants that have a bar component and tv) that are more likely to your mind, from G5/G6, please do list them (instead of the sophistic comedy act).
ETA - Previously in the thread I erroneously said Kelly's was the 'only local bar I am aware of that shows live sports'. Note I have since given Nautilus as an example and as such already corrected myself on that count.
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Also I just found this collated list of venues specifically recommended for English tourists online thanks to a Martin Roberts article. Bold annotations are mine;
The Bull - English pub, does show sports
Clive’s Bar - Lack of tv a selling point - does not show sports
Godots - Offered live music Tuesdays and had Quiz Weds - both the relevant football nights
Junction 17 (aka Carlos’ Bar) - Theme bar, does not show sports
Kelly’s - Purposed bar showing live sports
Luz Tavern - Tavern, does show sports, is opposite the church
JD’s - Formerly Godots
The Snug (opened 2011) - been through a few name changes and I am not able to determine what was there in 2007, however as of Snug it does advertise showing sports. Forms an almost perfect triangle with Kelly's and Nautilus on a map
Olly’s Bar (opened 2011) - Ditto The Snug
So, if these are the venues most likely for an English tourist, then according to the sourced websites the only way Kelly's can be fairly described as an unlikely venue for Balu/Berry is if you can prove that neither man knew the difference between a bar, pub or tavern, and then subsequently make a case for why it's more likely those places (Luz Tavern and The Bull) are more likely venues for you (given that they are in the same area). I would posit that's pretty unlikely
ETA - Made some quick maps so this doesn't seem like gibberish to anyone skimming;
Zoomed out to show relative distances of apartment blocks and Mill
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Honed in on Kelly's area to show relative distance between venues
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
The Bull - English pub, does show sports
Clive’s Bar - Lack of tv a selling point - does not show sports
Godots - Offered live music Tuesdays and had Quiz Weds - both the relevant football nights
Junction 17 (aka Carlos’ Bar) - Theme bar, does not show sports
Kelly’s - Purposed bar showing live sports
Luz Tavern - Tavern, does show sports, is opposite the church
JD’s - Formerly Godots
The Snug (opened 2011) - been through a few name changes and I am not able to determine what was there in 2007, however as of Snug it does advertise showing sports. Forms an almost perfect triangle with Kelly's and Nautilus on a map
Olly’s Bar (opened 2011) - Ditto The Snug
So, if these are the venues most likely for an English tourist, then according to the sourced websites the only way Kelly's can be fairly described as an unlikely venue for Balu/Berry is if you can prove that neither man knew the difference between a bar, pub or tavern, and then subsequently make a case for why it's more likely those places (Luz Tavern and The Bull) are more likely venues for you (given that they are in the same area). I would posit that's pretty unlikely
ETA - Made some quick maps so this doesn't seem like gibberish to anyone skimming;
Zoomed out to show relative distances of apartment blocks and Mill
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Honed in on Kelly's area to show relative distance between venues
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Forgive me but where is this talk of bars and live football leading? Is there a connection between this and the veracity of Martin Smith and his family - the thread topic?April28th wrote:
I also think there's a distinct possibility that at least a compartment of the Smith family would've already known Gerry by sight from the football match (Manchester United vs AC Milan) shown on the 2nd at Kellys, thanks to Tanner's faux pas. Given that members of the family support Manchester United, and that Miss Chekaya placed Gerry at the Tapas on Tuesday (the only other occasion that an English game would've been observed that week). Likewise Balu/Berry who both said they watched those games.
In a round-about way are you suggesting that at some stage Gerry McCann was at a bar watching football? If yes, what have you based this assumption on and what relevance does it have to the Smith's alleged sighting? Tanner's faux-pas - what when where was that?
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Verdi wrote:Tanner's faux-pas - what when where was that?
Skip to 10:05
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Jane Tanner's rogatory interview - 8th April 2008April28th wrote:Verdi wrote:Tanner's faux-pas - what when where was that?
Skip to 10:05
4078 “Okay. Right, lets go back to the Thursday then. Everybody has sat down eventually and I take it the food has been ordered. Take me through then, as you can remember it, and take as much time as you need”.
Reply “Umm”.
4078 “To remember in as much detail as possible, because the more you say the less likely I am going to have come back and ask questions later”.
Reply “Yeah”.
4078 “So there is no rush, just in your own time”.
Reply “Yeah. Erm, so, yeah, I think everybody, everybody arrived about nine o’clock. I think we ordered fairly, as soon as Dave and Fi arrived we sort of like ordered almost straight away I think. And almost I think as soon after Dave and Fi arrived Gerry went to do his check, because they’d already been there since sort of half past eight, so, you know, sort of like it was half an hour, a half an hour check for them. So he, yeah, he, he went off to his check and he was longer than a bit, because I can remember Kate sort of saying ‘Oh bet he’s put the footy on’, because I think there was a football match that night and she sort of said ‘Oh I think he’s probably’, erm, you know, ‘got side tracked and put the telly on and catch up on the score’, so he was gone a bit longer than normal.
Erm, and then I think we thought ‘Oh well the starters are going to appear any minute’. So Russ had sort of come down about quarter to. And I think at this point, I don’t know whether I knew that Matt had been and listened or what, so I remember saying to Russ ‘Shall I got and check’ and I remember at that time thinking ‘Oh can I persuade Russ to go and check so I don’t have to’. But, no, so, you know, I’ll go and check at that point. So, timing wise, I mean, I think it was sort of five past, ten past, ten past nine, around, around that sort of time”.
4078 “From what I know from reading statements, Gerry was still absent?”
Reply “He wasn’t there at that point, no, no. So, erm, then I walked, so I just walked out the, erm, the Ocean Club bit and walked, sort of walked up the road. And then Gerry was there, he was talking to Jez WILKINS in the road, well they were sort of, as I went by. So I think I thought then ‘Oh that’s why Jez’, not Jez, ‘That’s why Gerry has been, you know, that’s why he’s longer than we thought’”.
----------
The reference point is the night of Thursday 3rd May, I see no reason to assume that Gerry McCann had left the Tapas meal to take himself off to a local bar to watch football.
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Re: winnower1 issues a challenge: Bennett's analysis of the Smith family's actions and statements is 'seriously flawed'. Is it?
Verdi wrote:
The reference point is the night of Thursday 3rd May, I see no reason to assume that Gerry McCann had left the Tapas meal to take himself off to a local bar to watch football.
This is the point. There were no relevant games on Thursday. Therefore more evidence that Jane was filling her account of the 3rd up with anecdotes from previous nights. Both English games were on the Tuesday and Wednesday. Since Tuesday was quiz night, it follows that if Gerry was watching a match it would be the Wednesday match (unless he chose not to watch it all - Champions League games start at 1945 and end around 2140, quiz started at 2100).
I'm making the case that Kelly's is the most likely venue for Berry and Balu because they DID place themselves at a bar and that's what Elca was replying to. The Smiths, we know, went to Kelly's and Peter is a Manchester United fan (again, Wednesday match).
I said in the first post it is fuzzy because it can't be confirmed, but if there was any night Gerry watched a match it would've been Weds, and the likeliest venue would be Kelly's (I don't buy Gerry sitting alone in the apartment watching it on a tiny tv in the corner, not least given what a good missed alibi that would've been for childcare), in which case the Smiths would know Gerry by sight.
That was the original point, it got a bit lost with Elca's comedy routine
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