"The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
The Complete Mystery of Madeleine McCann™ :: British Police / Government Interference :: 'Operation Grange' set up by ex-Prime Minister David Cameron
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"The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
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This post isn't really a commentary on the Madeleine McCann case but this case does so well represent Occam's Razor in crime analysis that I feel a need to use it as an example. In my blog yesterday, [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] I discussed how shows like Death in Paradise have very complicated scenarios of how a murder was committed, the perpetrator being practically a genius of planning and misdirection. I pointed out how rarely is this the case in real life; almost always, homicides are usually acts of desperation born of loss of power and control. Crimes of passion (quite mislabeled as passion being the motive), also known as "out-of-character" crimes (which is also a mislabel as the crime is quite within the character of the person committing it) are relatively impulsive, so planning is quite minimal. Serial killers are mostly of the anger-retaliatory type and rarely plan the crime much in advance; usually they are opportunistic and strike when they have a victim that wanders into their territory alone or, while doing their usually trolling of an area, finally get lucky when a target appears with no witnesses in the area. The reason they get away with their crimes is simply the fact that most of the time there are no witnesses and they are strangers to the victim and there is no obvious link for the police to follow. As long as they don't leave DNA that can be matched to a DNA bank, they have a good shot of getting away with their homicides.
Much rarer is someone who plans a homicide: a black widow poisoning her husbands, a man getting rid of his wife so he can have his freedom, a boyfriend eliminating a pregnant girlfriend. Usually the crime is not all that clever, it is just often hard to prove in a court of law that the killer is guilty. Much of the time, the body is well-hidden so that the "no-body, no proof of a crime" rule applies. At other times, the crime is staged as a stranger homicide and it works but not because it is so intricately planned. It simply works because evidence is limited to prove otherwise.
Killers are generally of normal intelligence who commit their crimes without great forethought and they also tend to cover their tracks in a hurried manner. Murderers don't think to the depth of perpetrators on television or in the movies; they just rush to take care of the problem and, in doing so, act in a manner that many others in their shoes have acted before. In real life, crimes are often committed and covered up in similar ways, the way humans act when under pressure and with the limited knowledge most have at the time of the crime and while under stress.
I am repeatedly encouraged in the McCann case to do further research on a number of issues that some believe proves Madeleine McCann died earlier in the week and that on May 3rd, the McCanns and their friends had a preplanned course of action to stage an abduction.
They believe there is lots of evidence proving that Madeleine was dead for days by then: incorrect creche records, a manipulated photo, no sightings of Madeleine, odd behaviors, and no neglect of the children. I am not going to argue all of this: I am going to point out Occam's Razor and why have always thought that May 3rd was the key to what happened to Madeleine and when.
If something had happened to Madeleine days before, we simply would have seen her "abduction" staged earlier in the week.
In real life, planning to stage an abduction for days and having to manipulate evidence of Madeleine being alive for days when she was not is simply too bloody difficult to manage.
Then, on May 3rd, after all that planning, the whole evening was an ungodly mess full of inconsistencies and errors, which would be odd for a so carefully premeditated scenario.
If the McCanns are guilty, what May 3rd represents is a disaster, as Gerry pointed out, and a quick attempt to over up that disaster. The simplest answer, Occam's Razor, is that May 3rd was a confusion because very little was planned and when it was (interviews with the police), it was still a confused mess because there was little time to think anything through and everyone's brains were a muddle.
The key to this crime is very simple: the Smith sighting. The Smith sighting has always been my Number One reason for doubting the McCanns' innocence in the disappearance of Madeleine. The most consistent behavior of parents of missing children is to want EVERY lead followed, even ridiculous ones. On the evening of May 3rd, the Smith family saw a child who could have been Madeleine being carried off towards the sea, yet the McCanns expressed little interest in this sighting and even tried to suppress it. If the McCanns were innocent and Gerry was not Smithman, and even if they thought Jane was telling the truth, that Tannerman existed and might have been the kidnapper, it is hard to believe they would not have been gung-ho to follow-up that Smith sighting in every way possible, the way they did with Tannerman
Applying Occam's Razor, why would they ignore and suppress the Smith sighting? What is the simplest of explanations? Because it was Gerry and he was in the act of covering up a crime that had just occurred. The reason Gonçalo Amaral believed this to be so is because he is a real-world detective and knows that Occam's Razor applies in crime investigation and the fanciful stuff you see on television is concocted by writers who need to come up with a show that is exciting to the viewers.
Detectives and profilers often are driven nuts by family members and citizens who, when a case goes unsolved, start going bonkers with unlikely theories, full of very intricate plots. They figure, if no one has been arrested and convicted, it must be because the crime is so complicated and clever.
In real life, it is often so much simpler; the crime is straightforward but it is hard to prove in court.
Criminal Profiler Pat Brown
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____________________
Goncalo Amaral: "Then there's the window we found Kate's finger prints.
She said she had never touched that window and the cleaning lady assured that she had cleaned it on the previous day....it doesn't add up"
NickE- Posts : 1405
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
So....Pat is not buying the earlier death theory?
And, she believes Smithman is Gerry.......WHAT?
Come on DCI Wall......don't sleep on the job....do something !
And, she believes Smithman is Gerry.......WHAT?
Come on DCI Wall......don't sleep on the job....do something !
aiyoyo- Posts : 9610
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Sorry, Pat, I'm not buying it
Exactly my feelings.aiyoyo wrote:So...Pat believes Smithman is Gerry...WHAT?
Now, being under heavy legal restrictions, I am very limited in what I can say but I cannot let Pat Brown's latest post pass without comment.
To believe, first of all, that Madeleine died in the evening of Thursday 3 May requires agreement to just these three propositions:
1. The alerts of Martin Grime's two cadaver dogs prove there was once a corpse in Apartment G5A
2. That corpse was Madeleine McCann, and
3. The evidence of the nanny and the McCanns about them and their three children all having high tea together at 5.30pm to 6.00pm that evening is absolute proof that Madeleine was still alive at about 6pm on 3 May. ( In this respect, Pat might with profit re-read HiDeHo's 'take' on this event, on her blog, link here: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] - 'Catriona Baker inconsistencies' )
And that's, in Pat's view - no need to consider anything else!
Now I come to what she says about 'Occam's Razor' - the principle that the simplest solution is usually the correct one.
But is it in this case?
Can 'Occam's Razor' really apply bearing in mind, e.g.:
* the appointment of the government's top Media Adviser to run public relations for the McCanns?
* the involvement of MI5, Special Branch and various government-sponsored agencies like Control Risks Group?
* the appointment by Brian Kennedy of no fewer than three ex-MoD/MI5 spies in 2008, allegedly to try and find Madeleine: Kevin Halligen, Henri Exton and Tim Craig-Harvey and
* regular discussions at Prime Ministerial level in both the U.K. and Portugal about the case?
Finally, what to make of Pat saying that 'Smithman' is Gerry McCann?
How likely is this scenario?
Sometime after 6pm on Thursday 3 May, Madeleine dies (somehow)...
...presumably without the twins knowing about it...
...the body is kept in their apartment whilst they all assemble for dinner at the Tapas bar around 8.45pm...
...the McCanns chat and eat and drink away with others of their group, with various members getting up and down to check their infants are OK...
...they all decide to take part in an abduction hoax that evening and declare Madeleine missing at 10.00pm...
...and Gerry is sent off at about 9.45pm to carry Madeleine's body, in which rigor mortis is probably beginning to set in, through the streets of Praia da Luz and hide it somewhere temporarily...
...he does so, luckily being seen only by the Smiths...
...he then successfully finds a hiding place for Madeleine's body where no-one is able to find it...
...and then returns to the Ocean Club by or before 10.30pm as if nothing had happened.
Sorry Pat, to quote Wendy Murphy, 'I'm not buying it'. Make yourself a good pot of best Yorkshire Tea - and then settle down and watch Richard Hall's 'The Phantoms'
____________________
Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"
Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".
Tony Bennett- Investigator
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
Pat, you are making a huge whopper of an assumption. And it is a whopper.
The Smiths account is genuine.
You have not seen them in any TV interview or met them in person. All you have done is read statements, and some media articles.
Would you not like to see them interviewed or interview them yourself to make a better judgement? Why are you so sure their account is true?
I have requested interviews with Martin Smith and I have asked him many important questions in my emails. It seems he is now hiding from me?
Until the Smiths are challenged on camera by an independent journalist and answer questions so we can all judge their credibility, they have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
The Smiths account is genuine.
You have not seen them in any TV interview or met them in person. All you have done is read statements, and some media articles.
Would you not like to see them interviewed or interview them yourself to make a better judgement? Why are you so sure their account is true?
I have requested interviews with Martin Smith and I have asked him many important questions in my emails. It seems he is now hiding from me?
Until the Smiths are challenged on camera by an independent journalist and answer questions so we can all judge their credibility, they have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
It seems to me Ms Brown is viewing this case from afar, so far that she is unaware of the fundamental weaknesses that encompass the whole farcical affair. It is anything but black and white, too much unexplained detail to be in a position to speak as a criminal profiler on a case governed across the Atlantic.Richard D. Hall wrote:Pat, you are making a huge whopper of an assumption. And it is a whopper.
The Smiths account is genuine.
You have not seen them in any TV interview or met them in person. All you have done is read statements, and some media articles.
Would you not like to see them interviewed or interview them yourself to make a better judgement? Why are you so sure their account is true?
I have requested interviews with Martin Smith and I have asked him many important questions in my emails. It seems he is now hiding from me?
Until the Smiths are challenged on camera by an independent journalist and answer questions so we can all judge their credibility, they have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
I wonder why she ever took any interest in the case, I trust she wasn't commissioned by Oprah Winfrey, that would be a massive oooops! Nice little earner though.
Guest- Guest
Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
Sorry Pat but I applied Occam's Razor to yourself and found you making 2+2 = 5.
This case is complicated, despite the events seemingly playing out badly.
I think it was a case of a plan A that fouled up and plan B was hastily cobbled together.
As for you being a profiler, yes, so is/was Paul Brittan* and we all know what happened there..
*Brittan wrongly "profiled" Colin Stagg as Rachel Nickell's murderer.
All I see when I read a "profiler" is someone stating the bleedin' obvious, a misnomer of a title and profession.
Basically you are not superhuman just because of a "title" saying you are.
This case is complicated, despite the events seemingly playing out badly.
I think it was a case of a plan A that fouled up and plan B was hastily cobbled together.
As for you being a profiler, yes, so is/was Paul Brittan* and we all know what happened there..
*Brittan wrongly "profiled" Colin Stagg as Rachel Nickell's murderer.
All I see when I read a "profiler" is someone stating the bleedin' obvious, a misnomer of a title and profession.
Basically you are not superhuman just because of a "title" saying you are.
Mark Willis- Posts : 638
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
Why would the police reopen a case that was already shelved just to spend over £10million to cover it up?
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
Because they were told to by Britain's most powerful woman, Rebekah Brooks...who told David Cameron, who told Theresa May, who told Sir Paul Stephenson.Google.Gaspar.Statements wrote:Why would the police reopen a case that was already shelved just to spend over £10million to cover it up?
And who did they put in charge?
Det Chief Supt Hamish Campbell, a bloke who spent another £10 million fitting up the wrong bloke in the Jill Dando case
____________________
Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"
Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".
Tony Bennett- Investigator
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
So why would Rebekah Brookes want the case reopened so that £10million could be spent on covering it up?
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
1. Sales for News International and stories for SKYGoogle.Gaspar.Statements wrote:So why would Rebekah Brooks want the case reopened so that £10million could be spent on covering it up?
2. She knows something about the case that would severely embarrass the government
____________________
Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"
Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".
Tony Bennett- Investigator
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
Having this case reviewed and brought into the limelight again is like opening a gold mine to the 'news' agencies and corporations. It sells.
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
Tony Bennett wrote:1. Sales for News International and stories for SKYGoogle.Gaspar.Statements wrote:So why would Rebekah Brooks want the case reopened so that £10million could be spent on covering it up?
2. She knows something about the case that would severely embarrass the government
Which Government ? Labour were in power at the time. Surely a political opportunity prior to the election ?
Maybe breaking a story like this for political means is too risky in case it backfires...Tory witch-hunt on grieving parents etc...the public have been fed this line for years.
IMO
ETA Public influenced by the press and not the Torys.
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
Because there is a whole lot more at stake here than one missing child. Madeleine McCann, now but a distant memory, was a mere pawn in the game plan. She was and still is a good marketing ploy.Google.Gaspar.Statements wrote:Why would the police reopen a case that was already shelved just to spend over £10million to cover it up?
Children are treated like soiled nappies.
Guest- Guest
Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
Tony Bennett wrote:1. Sales for News International and stories for SKYGoogle.Gaspar.Statements wrote:So why would Rebekah Brooks want the case reopened so that £10million could be spent on covering it up?
2. She knows something about the case that would severely embarrass the government
I think the first reason is weak. It's a story that could run on its own fed by pink persons.
The second - I don't think David Cameron would agree to open it if it would severely embarrass the government.
I think they wanted a showcase clearing of the McCanns.
It's turned out to be a bit more difficult than they thought - there are a lot of the public who know every nook and cranny of the PJ files.
Guest- Guest
Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
2007 - initial cover-up by Labour - appointing Clarence Mitchell. Labour sustained in power because Murdoch continually backed themCarrry On Doctor wrote:Tony Bennett wrote:1. Sales for News International and stories for SKYGoogle.Gaspar.Statements wrote:So why would Rebekah Brooks want the case reopened so that £10million could be spent on covering it up?
2. She knows something about the case that would severely embarrass the government
Which Government ? Labour were in power at the time. Surely a political opportunity prior to the election ?
Maybe breaking a story like this for political means is too risky in case it backfires...Tory witch-hunt on grieving parents etc...the public have been fed this line for years.
IMO
ETA Public influenced by the press and not the Torys.
2009 Cameron meets Murdoch on his Mediterranean yacht. Murdoch promises to back Tories if Cameron will give him control of BSkyB. Deal done. Cameron dutifully employs Murdoch man Andy Coulson as his Director of Communications and they both employ Clarence Mitchell as his Deputy, ahead of the 2010 General Election. Murdoch's papers back the Tories.
2011 - Rebekah Brooks, Murdoch's CEO, orders Operation Grange to be set up.
It couldn't be clearer. Rupert Murdoch has been controlling most of the events touching on Madeleine McCann - with the help of his friends in the British security services, MI5, Special Branch etc. - Halligen, Exton, Craig-Harvey...
'They are all in this together'
____________________
Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"
Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".
Tony Bennett- Investigator
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
I think you over estimate the power of the people. Since when has any government given a damn about public opinion or needs?BlueBag wrote:Tony Bennett wrote:1. Sales for News International and stories for SKYGoogle.Gaspar.Statements wrote:So why would Rebekah Brooks want the case reopened so that £10million could be spent on covering it up?
2. She knows something about the case that would severely embarrass the government
I think the first reason is weak. It's a story that could run on its own fed by pink persons.
The second - I don't think David Cameron would agree to open it if it would severely embarrass the government.
I think they wanted a showcase clearing of the McCanns.
It's turned out to be a bit more difficult than they thought - there are a lot of the public who know every nook and cranny of the PJ files.
Guest- Guest
Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
The internet is very powerful.Verdi wrote:I think you over estimate the power of the people. Since when has any government given a damn about public opinion or needs?BlueBag wrote:Tony Bennett wrote:1. Sales for News International and stories for SKYGoogle.Gaspar.Statements wrote:So why would Rebekah Brooks want the case reopened so that £10million could be spent on covering it up?
2. She knows something about the case that would severely embarrass the government
I think the first reason is weak. It's a story that could run on its own fed by pink persons.
The second - I don't think David Cameron would agree to open it if it would severely embarrass the government.
I think they wanted a showcase clearing of the McCanns.
It's turned out to be a bit more difficult than they thought - there are a lot of the public who know every nook and cranny of the PJ files.
Guest- Guest
Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
Besides, Pat is not assiigned to this case in the capacity of a profiler is she? All she can do from across the Atlantic is express an opinion based on the case files the media and the web, same as the rest of us. What do profilers look for when working on a case, they look for patterns of behaviour, trends, appearance, it's all guess work really.Mark Willis wrote:Sorry Pat but I applied Occam's Razor to yourself and found you making 2+2 = 5.
This case is complicated, despite the events seemingly playing out badly.
I think it was a case of a plan A that fouled up and plan B was hastily cobbled together.
As for you being a profiler, yes, so is/was Paul Brittan* and we all know what happened there..
*Brittan wrongly "profiled" Colin Stagg as Rachel Nickell's murderer.
All I see when I read a "profiler" is someone stating the bleedin' obvious, a misnomer of a title and profession.
Basically you are not superhuman just because of a "title" saying you are.
Because the high seas most wanted cut-throat wears an eye patch, a skull and cross-bone badge on his jaunty tricorn titfer, balances a moth-eaten dead parrot on his shoulder and dangles a lethal cutlass from his braces he must be a personification of Captain Pugwash. Never would it dawn that the suspect is indeed Sir Walter Riley having a bad hair day.
Guest- Guest
Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
BlueBag today @ 1:02 pm
"The internet is very powerful"
Very powerful and frequently very destructive!
"The internet is very powerful"
Very powerful and frequently very destructive!
Guest- Guest
Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
@ Tony Bennett
Talking of bad hair days, don't think much of your latest make-over! The shabby chic raincoat was bad enough but this?
Talking of bad hair days, don't think much of your latest make-over! The shabby chic raincoat was bad enough but this?
Guest- Guest
Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
Verdi wrote:@ Tony Bennett
Talking of bad hair days, don't think much of your latest make-over! The shabby chic raincoat was bad enough but this?
I love Tony's new look. Perhaps he would tell me which hairdresser did those flowing honey blonde tresses?
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
Credit to you, at least you're not going for the whole ensemble. Just hope she never enters a crime scene without wearing a hoodie, those pesky hairs get everywhere.woodpecker wrote:Verdi wrote:@ Tony Bennett
Talking of bad hair days, don't think much of your latest make-over! The shabby chic raincoat was bad enough but this?
I love Tony's new look. Perhaps he would tell me which hairdresser did those flowing honey blonde tresses?
Guest- Guest
Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
I think Tony is right.Tony Bennett wrote:2007 - initial cover-up by Labour - appointing Clarence Mitchell. Labour sustained in power because Murdoch continually backed themCarrry On Doctor wrote:Tony Bennett wrote:1. Sales for News International and stories for SKYGoogle.Gaspar.Statements wrote:So why would Rebekah Brooks want the case reopened so that £10million could be spent on covering it up?
2. She knows something about the case that would severely embarrass the government
Which Government ? Labour were in power at the time. Surely a political opportunity prior to the election ?
Maybe breaking a story like this for political means is too risky in case it backfires...Tory witch-hunt on grieving parents etc...the public have been fed this line for years.
IMO
ETA Public influenced by the press and not the Torys.
2009 Cameron meets Murdoch on his Mediterranean yacht. Murdoch promises to back Tories if Cameron will give him control of BSkyB. Deal done. Cameron dutifully employs Murdoch man Andy Coulson as his Director of Communications and they both employ Clarence Mitchell as his Deputy, ahead of the 2010 General Election. Murdoch's papers back the Tories.
2011 - Rebekah Brooks, Murdoch's CEO, orders Operation Grange to be set up.
It couldn't be clearer. Rupert Murdoch has been controlling most of the events touching on Madeleine McCann - with the help of his friends in the British security services, MI5, Special Branch etc. - Halligen, Exton, Craig-Harvey...
'They are all in this together'
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
If that is the case, and it certainly seems feasible - what are the possible reasons for this?
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
It's been discussed over and over again HelenMeg (btw I like your tweets to Jimmy no flags) and this is the crux of the matter. It's what and who was being protected and why there was such immediate assistance. The immediate influx of assistance from political big wigs is beyond comprehension. I can think of no other case where a missing child case has been given such immediate attention from those in power.HelenMeg wrote:If that is the case, and it certainly seems feasible - what are the possible reasons for this?
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
I believe the Smith family saw a random guy, but the guy wasn't Gerry.
I wonder if the Smiths got the date (and maybe the venue) confused due to fuzzy recollection after the lapse of time ?
Could they be another johnny come lately do gooder just like Lurenco (sp) ?
There are plenty people like that around, connecting the dots after an occurred crime, in a mistaken belief they're doing their civic duty to help the police and the victim family. Something they'd witnessed earlier which they didn't make anything of then, suddenly they assumed a significance and perceived it differently; and after pondering decided they should/would report it to the Police.
I'm not saying that this is what happened with the Smiths report. Just one possibility of looking at it.
To have been so effective at the disposal, it seems a strong possibility to me that they had help by an outside third party. Maybe the third party isn't the patsy we know, but he may have something to do with it, as in he's the middleman that provides the connection to someone else. I think a certain self made millionaire (not naming him here) who bent backward to help the Mcs & co. in every way and in every aspect, going the extent of interfering with the investigation needs to be looked at by the Police. It's highly unusual for someone that claims not to have known the McCanns pre the incident to pledge unconditional support in more than just the moral way as well as to get his hands dirty up to that level. Just my view as usual.
I am with Pat's belief of the occam's razor principle of keeping the theory simple. A conspiracy that involves that many levels and that many people is just too complicated to be viable.
I wonder if the Smiths got the date (and maybe the venue) confused due to fuzzy recollection after the lapse of time ?
Could they be another johnny come lately do gooder just like Lurenco (sp) ?
There are plenty people like that around, connecting the dots after an occurred crime, in a mistaken belief they're doing their civic duty to help the police and the victim family. Something they'd witnessed earlier which they didn't make anything of then, suddenly they assumed a significance and perceived it differently; and after pondering decided they should/would report it to the Police.
I'm not saying that this is what happened with the Smiths report. Just one possibility of looking at it.
To have been so effective at the disposal, it seems a strong possibility to me that they had help by an outside third party. Maybe the third party isn't the patsy we know, but he may have something to do with it, as in he's the middleman that provides the connection to someone else. I think a certain self made millionaire (not naming him here) who bent backward to help the Mcs & co. in every way and in every aspect, going the extent of interfering with the investigation needs to be looked at by the Police. It's highly unusual for someone that claims not to have known the McCanns pre the incident to pledge unconditional support in more than just the moral way as well as to get his hands dirty up to that level. Just my view as usual.
I am with Pat's belief of the occam's razor principle of keeping the theory simple. A conspiracy that involves that many levels and that many people is just too complicated to be viable.
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
The biggest mistake Smithman did to get his alibi being at the table was to give the sighting time away after he passed the Smiths. He said the time was 10:03 when he tod Kate it was time to do her check. 10 minutes later he started to worry and then she came running back raising the alarm. Everything you need to know how it happened is there. I believe the first long check was the first move away from the apartment (not watching football as said at the table when Jane was still present). The second move after he told everybody to split up and search, he was seen and when he passed them the time was 10:03 - his alibi time being still at the table and 10 minutes to hide.
"We were hoping that she was just in a bush hiding." (KM)
"Around 22H00, they left Kelly's Bar. The group headed, on foot, for their apartment.
— Questioned, she responds that she knows the time that they left." (AS age 12)
"We were hoping that she was just in a bush hiding." (KM)
"Around 22H00, they left Kelly's Bar. The group headed, on foot, for their apartment.
— Questioned, she responds that she knows the time that they left." (AS age 12)
10:03- Posts : 14
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Join date : 2014-12-01
10.03
Wow!10:03 wrote:The biggest mistake Smithman did to get his alibi being at the table was to give the sighting time away after he passed the Smiths. He said the time was 10:03 when he tod Kate it was time to do her check. 10 minutes later he started to worry and then she came running back raising the alarm. Everything you need to know how it happened is there. I believe the first long check was the first move away from the apartment (not watching football as said at the table when Jane was still present). The second move after he told everybody to split up and search, he was seen and when he passed them the time was 10:03 - his alibi time being still at the table and 10 minutes to hide.
"We were hoping that she was just in a bush hiding." (KM)
"Around 22H00, they left Kelly's Bar. The group headed, on foot, for their apartment.
— Questioned, she responds that she knows the time that they left." (AS age 12)
to quote some-one else, ( ) that really is a revelation moment!
worriedmum- Posts : 2062
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Join date : 2012-01-17
Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
The problem with conspiracy theories is the impossibility and logistics of keeping all the actors silent after the event. Take the theory that the Apollo moon landings were faked. The idea that those who were involved in planning and commissioning the fake landing, creating the sets, the props, the lighting, the filming, the actors etc etc could be kept silent in perpetuity is preposterous. It would have directly involved thousands and even more thousands of others would be 'in the know'.
roy rovers- Posts : 473
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Re: "The Madeleine McCann Case and Occam's Razor"
TAPAS ALL IN ON IT?
We know the McCann buddies ALL refused to return to Portugal to assist police with their investigation. Refused to take part in a reconstruction of events.
Read Refusal Blogs above.
We know the stories they have told regarding the timeline on the night they reported Madeleine to be missing, quite simply don't add up.
It is unimaginable that if the child of a friend went missing that we would not co-operate fully with police if requested to.
Unimaginable to refuse, when by refusing we might cause this child to lose her life.
But that is what they did REFUSED, and with the blessing of the McCanns!
If they were NOT involved. If they had been entirely TRUTHFUL with the police when they gave their FIRST witness statements - WHY WOULD THEY NOT CO-OPERATE, not take part in a re-enactment based on what they had already told police?
They made demands of the Portuguese Police -
FREE Kate and Gerry McCann of their arguido status and they then may co-operate?
What kind of people are this group of people?
FREE Kate and Gerry McCann of their arguido status and they might consider helping Madeleine who they claimed was in the hands of a paedophile gang?
Now it would take a sick bastard to leave any child in the hands of a paedophile, but if a paedophile took this child, that is EXACTLY WHAT THESE PEOPLE ARE - SICK BASTARDS. A real bad lot!
We speak of what the McCann twins, what they will ask their parents as they get older (and they are now ten years old, must be asking some difficult questions now) But WHAT will the kids of their buddies be asking? Some of these kids are older than the McCann twins! WHAT will they think when they come to know that their parents REFUSED TO HELP MADELEINE. CHOSE to leave her with paedophiles? CHOSE not to help her be re-united with her family, her brother and sister.
And WHAT will the McCann twins think of their parents buddies?
Reading Fiona Payne's interview with Leicestershire Police may give us a clue as to their thinking?
This is Fiona Payne telling the officer questioning her why she would NOT help Madeleine by taking part in a police re-enactment of the night the child was reported as missing.
“And, at the moment really, we’ve got NO reason to trust the motives of doing a re-enactment when Kate and Gerry are still aguido and, if they’re aguido, I think WE'VE ALL GOT TO BE IMPLICATED, because I just don’t see how Kate and Gerry could have done anything that’s been suggested WITHOUT ALL OF US BEING IN ON IT. You know, its just NOT POSSIBLE!”.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
EXACTLY FIONA - YOU ALL HAD TO BE IN ON IT! JUST NOT POSSIBLE FOR YOU NOT TO HAVE BEEN!
What more reason could there be for them NOT TO RETURN to Portugal to assist with police investigations?
Fiona Payne, this best friend of Kate McCann HAS LIED to police. Lied about Kate McCann telling her that Kate McCann told her she and Gerry McCann had left that patio door open for Madeleine to get out and go look for them if she woke up. Lied about this and so much more.
Kate McCann lied about the patio door also. She claimed Madeleine would not have been able to EXIT through the patio door, that the child would have been unable to open it.
These best friends tripped each other up with this lie and the many others told.
NO INNOCENT ADULT refuses to assist police with their investigation into the disappearance of a missing child.
NO INNOCENT ADULT chooses to BACK the parents, hold the police to ransom - RELEASE MY BUDDIES OF THEIR ARGUIDO STATUS and then I MAY think about helping the missing child!
How these people are not behind bars, is astonishing!
Here is her full and complete response to the Leicestershire police officer who had put the question to her, about returning to Portugal to help Madeleine. It is shocking!
And later these people consulted with lawyers, all then refusing to help the child.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
We know the McCann buddies ALL refused to return to Portugal to assist police with their investigation. Refused to take part in a reconstruction of events.
Read Refusal Blogs above.
We know the stories they have told regarding the timeline on the night they reported Madeleine to be missing, quite simply don't add up.
It is unimaginable that if the child of a friend went missing that we would not co-operate fully with police if requested to.
Unimaginable to refuse, when by refusing we might cause this child to lose her life.
But that is what they did REFUSED, and with the blessing of the McCanns!
If they were NOT involved. If they had been entirely TRUTHFUL with the police when they gave their FIRST witness statements - WHY WOULD THEY NOT CO-OPERATE, not take part in a re-enactment based on what they had already told police?
They made demands of the Portuguese Police -
FREE Kate and Gerry McCann of their arguido status and they then may co-operate?
What kind of people are this group of people?
FREE Kate and Gerry McCann of their arguido status and they might consider helping Madeleine who they claimed was in the hands of a paedophile gang?
Now it would take a sick bastard to leave any child in the hands of a paedophile, but if a paedophile took this child, that is EXACTLY WHAT THESE PEOPLE ARE - SICK BASTARDS. A real bad lot!
We speak of what the McCann twins, what they will ask their parents as they get older (and they are now ten years old, must be asking some difficult questions now) But WHAT will the kids of their buddies be asking? Some of these kids are older than the McCann twins! WHAT will they think when they come to know that their parents REFUSED TO HELP MADELEINE. CHOSE to leave her with paedophiles? CHOSE not to help her be re-united with her family, her brother and sister.
And WHAT will the McCann twins think of their parents buddies?
Reading Fiona Payne's interview with Leicestershire Police may give us a clue as to their thinking?
This is Fiona Payne telling the officer questioning her why she would NOT help Madeleine by taking part in a police re-enactment of the night the child was reported as missing.
“And, at the moment really, we’ve got NO reason to trust the motives of doing a re-enactment when Kate and Gerry are still aguido and, if they’re aguido, I think WE'VE ALL GOT TO BE IMPLICATED, because I just don’t see how Kate and Gerry could have done anything that’s been suggested WITHOUT ALL OF US BEING IN ON IT. You know, its just NOT POSSIBLE!”.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
EXACTLY FIONA - YOU ALL HAD TO BE IN ON IT! JUST NOT POSSIBLE FOR YOU NOT TO HAVE BEEN!
What more reason could there be for them NOT TO RETURN to Portugal to assist with police investigations?
Fiona Payne, this best friend of Kate McCann HAS LIED to police. Lied about Kate McCann telling her that Kate McCann told her she and Gerry McCann had left that patio door open for Madeleine to get out and go look for them if she woke up. Lied about this and so much more.
Kate McCann lied about the patio door also. She claimed Madeleine would not have been able to EXIT through the patio door, that the child would have been unable to open it.
These best friends tripped each other up with this lie and the many others told.
NO INNOCENT ADULT refuses to assist police with their investigation into the disappearance of a missing child.
NO INNOCENT ADULT chooses to BACK the parents, hold the police to ransom - RELEASE MY BUDDIES OF THEIR ARGUIDO STATUS and then I MAY think about helping the missing child!
How these people are not behind bars, is astonishing!
Here is her full and complete response to the Leicestershire police officer who had put the question to her, about returning to Portugal to help Madeleine. It is shocking!
And later these people consulted with lawyers, all then refusing to help the child.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Joss- Posts : 1960
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