Theory 'purported' by Curioser (title changed from Any Advice etc.)

Curioser wrote:Well, I waited. They are either too busy, too disgusted, to embarrassed or my text is stupid or it's too long to read.  I'm tired of waiting now and there's so much going on T M will be too busy to worry about me I reckon with my little crackpot newbie speculation:

So:
Madeleine’s body had to be behind the couch for at least 90 minutes for cadaverine to develop.
Kate said in a TV interview something like “We know it wasn’t because we weren’t there.”

How about this:

4.45 Kate jogging. Gerry at tennis.

5.00 High tea with all kids and GM. Kate arrives back there sometime during.

5.30 Crèche worker sees Madeleine.

5.40 Family arrive back at apartment. GM and KH bathe kids


5.55 GM to tennis. KH dresses the kids in pajamas. Gave the kids chips, milk and biscuits (maybe with sedation?)


6.30 – 6.40 Kate has a shower while the kids are reading/eating.

6.30 David Payne supposedly sees the kids. Kate was supposedly in a towel but DP can’t remember what she was wearing(?) I don’t think this happened.  Now thanks to Cerinthe another piece falls into place.

7.00 GM returns from tennis – sits on couch.

"At 19H00, he made his way to the apartment, finding KATE and the children playing on the sofa. About 10 to 15 minutes later, they took the children to the bedroom and they all sat on MADELEINE'S bed to read a story."

She reads them another story with all five of them on Maddie’s bed (not on the bed by the door she didn’t!).
The twins kiss Maddie goodnight. KH and GM each put one twin in each cot (she thinks!)


Kids asleep by 7.15 Kate is ‘sure of this’.

GM says "At 19H30, the twins were already in their respective cots and MADELEINE in the bed next to the bedroom door. He does not know if they were asleep but from the silence he presumed that they were. As it was still early he took a bath, he thinks that KATE had already had one, they talked a little and drank wine or beer."

Kate says maybe Gerry had a shower – (this is three days later on the 6th and she can’t remember?) Gerry says he had a bath.

7.30 They close the door and have sex in their bedroom. Maybe make-up sex if she slept in the kids room the previous night after he was chatting up the trivia girl. (Although that may be diversion about the unmade bed by the window.)

Maybe during this, Maddie wakes up and goes out into the living room groggy. She goes to the couch and plays there. She drops her pencil case down the back of the couch like she’s done many times before, according to Gerry that’s why they pushed the couch against the wall.

She stands on the couch and reaches down over the back, maybe bounces a little, and topples over. She smacks her head on the tiled floor. She lies bleeding onto the curtains and tiles behind the couch. Gerry and Kate don’t hear because they are making noise of their own.

They finish having sex. Gerry goes for a shower/bath. Kate has a bath again (This explains the two cleansings!) Puts on her makeup.

8.30 They go to dinner without checking the children, “All quiet”,  before leaving the apartment.  They’re very insistent that they checked the children, but Kate didn’t – she says on the 5th that Gerry checked them. Gerry says on the 10th that he listened at the door, there was no noise so he didn’t go in.

No-one checked she was in bed when they left. At this point Maddie could already have been dead on the floor behind the couch.

This gives enough time for cadaverine to develop in her poor little body.

----- At 20H35, they left the apartment in the direction of the TAPAS. Before they left and because the children's bedroom door was ajar as always, he opened it a little more, listening from the outside and, as there was complete silence he did not enter, returning the door to its previous position, with a space of about 10cm.


Quotes in blue are from interviews.

Curioser wrote:So here's the next bit:

8.35          They arrive at the Tapas bar and talk to Stephen Carpenter.  Raj Balu and Neil Perry are waiting for their takeaway. The Oppenhiemer guy with his three kids tells Carpenter he is flying back to Switzerland in the morning. The others arrive. They have dinner, have a few drinks etc. Talk loudly, laugh and tell stories.
               Gerry alleges:
               21H05 MATHEW returned, the time at which the deponent left the table to go to check how his children were.
----- He followed the normal route up to the rear door, which being open he only had to move [slide] it, that being the way in which he entered [was entering] the lounge, he noted that the children's bedroom door was not ajar as he had left it but half-way open, which he thought strange, having then put together the thought of MADELEINE having got up to go to sleep in his bedroom so as to avoid the noise produced [created] by her siblings. In this way he entered the children's bedroom and established visual contact with each of them, checking and is certain of this, that the three were sleeping deeply. He left the children's bedroom returning to place the door how he had already previously described, [then] going to the bathroom. Everything else was normal, the blinds, curtains and windows closed, very dark, there only being the light that came from the lounge.
9.05                  Gerry goes to check and can’t find Maddie. He quickly looks around the apartment and still can’t find her. He goes to find Jane who he knows is nearby checking her children. They both look without success.
9.10                  Executive Chef, Arlindo epifanio Goncalves Fernandes Pelega sees one table occupied by three couples. (ie. three men, three women. If one woman was Webster then two women and one man not at the table Gerry and Kate and Jane?) – Executive Chef is probably fairly reliable – he’s in charge of all the restaurants.
9.20                  Jane returns to tell the group Then they all rush to go and look, calling as they go because she might have wandered outside. They split up and search the apartments and gardens. Kate goes straight to the apartment.

9.15 – 9.30        Steven Carpenter’s wife hears someone calling Madeleine
9.20                  Executive Chef heard clamour – was told a child was missing
9.20                  Meanwhile, Kate finds Madeliene behind the couch, dead and cooling. Kate calls for Gerry.
                       They pull the sofa out and Madeleine rolls away from the wall revealing her pink pencil case underneath her. She’s still warm, although cooler than normal and she flops in his arms.
               Gerry picks her up, swings around anti-clockwise and rushes into the bedroom, past the cots, to put her on the bed near the door. That’s why there is blood spatter high up on the north wall next to the sofa. As he held her in his arms and spun around the blood was thrown off onto the wall.  They try to revive her.  Amelie wakes up and starts to whimper.  Perhaps they give the twins something to sleep at this point or a bit later to prevent them saying something revealing to the wrong person.
9.25                  The other members of the group rush into the apartment when they fail to find Madeleine outside. They find Gerry and Kate distraught in the bedroom trying to revive Maddie but it quickly becomes clear to everyone that she is gone.
                         They are all in shock. Kate is crying, “Oh Madeleine. My beautiful little girl.” After a few minutes Gerry, the cool cardiologist that he is, says, “It’s a tragedy, but it’s happened. Madeleine wouldn’t want us to suffer because of it. What about the twins? We owe it to them. We need to make this go away.”  The others protest. “How?” “What do you mean?” “We can’t do that.” “That would be wrong.” “What if we’re found out?” “We’ll all go to jail.”
                         The tapas 9 come to grips with what has happened. They know that there are child neglect laws in Portugal and are unaware that there has to be intent to harm and/or they can’t afford for there to be an autopsy because the children are sedated and they have used inappropriate medication on their kids, there would be evidence of child abuse or something else. This would result in them losing their license to practice – possibly all the doctors. At any rate it would be a huge scandal. (David Payne was worried enough to call Child Services at 11.30 the following night. God knows why he would call them so late, unless it was a mistake and he used redial or something – no that can’t be it. They had other phones by this time. )
                         They quickly talk about the necessity of covering up the death.
                         They decide on abduction as this removes Madeleine and the evidence she could provide. They realize they will have to remove the body. They discuss the best way to do this and decide to quickly wash her, change her pajamas and carry her as though she is asleep. They have to get her out of the apartment as quickly as they can. Time is getting away from them. Fiona reminds them that Diane Webster will wonder what’s happening and come up to the apartment soon and they’re not sure she will co-operate.
9.30                  Gerry carries Madeleine down the stairs and notices Jez coming up the hill. He quickly places the body in the bushes and goes out on the street to talk to Jez. He waits until Jez is gone, picks up Madeleine and carries her towards the beach being careful to check for people as he goes. He starts to walk down the hill on the empty Rua da Escola Primaria, when a group of people appear from nowhere. He forgot or didn’t know about the stairs up from the bar to the street.
               
               The rest of the group have a big clean up to do. They will have to clean the floor and walls, wash the sheets from the bed.  They might even need to swap over the mattress. They have to take the sheets off the cots because they have blood dropped or smeared on them. Kate is covered in blood. A couple of people clean up the blood. Kate goes to wash and change into clean clothes. Matt takes down the curtain and goes to their apartment. He throws the curtain in the wash, takes down their identical curtain and puts the clean curtain up back in the McCann’s apartment. They push the couch against the wall to cover any blood they've missed (or it's the same curtain sponged and damp). Russell takes the sheets over to his apartment and puts the bloodied sheets in the wash. He collects sheets from one of their beds to take back.  He takes the clean sheets back to the McCann’s apartment. He makes up the bed and, not knowing where Madeleine slept, he assumes the bed by the door was Madeleine’s. He turns the sheets down and place the cat and blanket on the bed in an effort to make it look slept in. Perhaps he was asked to put them “on Madeleine’s bed” but didn’t know that she slept by the window (if she did). He had never been in the apartment before and had only seen Madeleine's body on the bed by the door. Maybe no-one noticed until it was too late.


9.40                  Diane Webster comes up from the Tapas. They tell her that Madeleine is missing and ask her to go up to the Payne apartment to get her out of the way. She notes that GM was not there.
9.45                  The rest of the group desperately create a coherent story with a timeline they can all stick to.
10.00                 Gerry is seen by all the Smiths at around 10. He finds a place to leave Maddie on the beach (or near the church?) and then rushes back to the apartment.    

10.00               MMMdS saw no movement of people on the street near the apartment.

10.20               When Gerry has hidden the body he returns to the apartment. He tells them he was seen by a group of people. They panic. Jane agrees to say she saw Gerry, Jez and the abductor at 9.15 providing Gerry with an alibi. They write  and rewrite the timeline so they can get it straight. Kate opens the window and the shutters. Gerry changes out of his light coloured buttoned jeans and throws them on the bed. His fleece and shirt have blood and fluids on them so he shoves them his tennis bag in the cupboard in the bedroom.

                         They agree that they have a pact. Rachael, the lawyer, recommends no-one says anything very definite, to say they didn’t take their phones to the Tapas so they can’t be precise with time, that they can’t remember details. They just need to create uncertainty and doubt. If they stick pretty much to the truth but add some details and change some times around it will create a confusing mess. If they all stick to the story they will be alright.
                         They discuss the “abduction” and decide to get the press involved to put out their version of events as quickly as possible. They call their relatives to let them know the story. They call any contacts they have in the media. Others get in touch with government contacts and ask for consular assistance. They print up photos and posters.
9.30                  Meanwhile the Warner and Ocean Club staff have mobilized to look for a missing child.
9.30-10.00         Helder Jorge Samaio Luis was notified at reception of the missing child and contacted GNR in Lagos immediately (or at 10.50 when the police have a call recorded?)
10.28               John Hill, Manager of the Ocean Club, is notified that a child is missing.
10.30               Mrs Fenn hears “We’ve let her down.” etc.
10.45               John Hill goes to the apartment. Gerry and Kate are there.
10.55               Helder Luis rang again when John Hill and Gerry arrived at reception. (Hmm)
                         
11.00               Silvia Batista, manager of the Ocean Club, arrives at the apartment. She is informed that the     GNR at reception so she goes there. Gerry and Russell follow her to reception to see the GNR.
11.00               GNR arrive at the main reception. Gerry rages and does his bowing piece.
11.14               Gerry calls Kate (8 seconds)
11.15               The GNR take Silvia, Gerry and Russell back to the apartment.
11.17               Gerry calls Kate (31 seconds)
11.20               Silvia notes that there are lots of people inside and none of them are searching.
11.20+             Much phone calling and gnashing of teeth. I think they probably were genuinely distraught but they were also laying groundwork for their story. The apartment is finally cleared and photographed and the McCanns are moved to another apartment. People search most of the night.
4^th May
                         The next day they decide to confuse things even more by dragging Robert Murat into the story. Again they muddy the waters. Perhaps they thought they could really frame him. Perhaps they did bring the body back up and bury it in his garden. Or did they put it in a barn wrapped in an Aztec rug as one report would have it?






Discrepancies:
I’ve tried to work everything in but there are some things I can’t fit into my theory.
For example, a waiter remembers that Jane came back from “checking the children”, Russell left and when Russell returned his steak was reheated or they cooked another one, depending on who you believe. So the waiter is an independent witness. Does that mean that Jane knew what had happened, or even just that Maddie was missing, and sent Russell to help Gerry. Kate was “moaning” that Gerry had been away from the table for a long time. Did Gerry not want to panic Kate? Was he guilty that he hadn’t checked on the children before he went to dinner? There is still something rubbery about this but I need to think about it.
Another  example. Jez says he thinks he saw Gerry sometime between 8.45 and 9.15 but he wasn’t particularly sure.  I’ve stretched it to somewhere around 9.35. (Unless Gerry, Matt and Russell decided it would be better to take the body out as quickly as possible, and before telling Kate. That would explain Kate crying, “They’ve taken her!”.)
Another example. Raj Balu, his wife, Neil Berry and his wife were sitting on the veranda and heard Gerry calling Madeleine loudly they think at about ten. This doesn’t quite fit my timeline.
I’ve tried a lot of scenarios. Perhaps it was more like this:
7.15                  Kids in bed
7.25                  Sex
7.30                  Maddie falls
8.30ish            Jeremy Wilkins sees Jane Tanner on ‘the street’ in front of the apartments, probably on the way to dinner.
8.30                  KH and GM arrive at Tapas and chat to Carpenters
9.05                  Gerry goes to check – can’t find Madeleine
                         He looks in the apartment then out on the balcony. He sees Jane going back to the table. He calls out to her. Jane, I can’t find Maddie. She’s not here.
                         They go into the apartment.  “Have you looked in the cupboards? She might be hiding.” “No. No I haven’t. Good idea.” Gerry looks in the cupboards while Jane looks in the bathroom and then she finds her behind the couch. “Oh no. Gerry. Oh no. Here she is.” (then as above) until…
                         Jane goes back to the table and tells Russell and Matt that Gerry needs a hand. They go and help Gerry. They clean up, wash Maddie, and decide on the cover up. They swap the curtains. Matt goes back to the table. Russell strips the bed and cots (as above) and throws them in the wash. Russell goes back to the table, tells Jane to go back, eats his reheated steak. Maybe Jane takes Kate back. When the Executive Chef walks by he sees three couples so one man and two women are missing. Gerry breaks the news. Kate  or Jane return and tell the others that Madeleine is missing.
                         All except Diane Webster go to help. She’s pretty sanguine. Kids wander off and turn up all the time. “I’ll wait here in case Maddie comes here looking for Kate.”
                         They rest of the group head back to the apartment calling for Madeleine ( are heard by independent witness), either because they think she is really missing or because they are aware of the abduction story.
                         OR
                         Gerry and Jane know and Gerry stays for a while cleaning up. (Kate was moaning that he was away for a long time).  Jane returns and sends Russell and Matt down to help. Gerry cleans (maybe bathes) Madeleine and puts her in his sports bag in the cupboard. They discuss a cover story. Gerry goes back to the table and pretends all is ok. Matt cleans up the floor behind the sofa and the specks of blood and fluid he can see. Then he pushes the sofa up against the wall to hide the blood at the base of the curtain and returns to the table. Russell takes the bloody clothes and washes them at his apartment. Russell returns. Jane goes back to the apartment. and waits for Kate? Russell’s steak is warmed up for him or they cooked a new one depending on who you listen to. Kate goes to make her check and Madeleine has vanished. Perhaps her real reaction? Then they tell her later and she cradles her child’s (cleaned) body.

                       
Comment:    Maybe the McCanns are adamant that Madeleine didn’t die because they were absent, because they were there. And all the fuss about the child checking seems irrelevant to them because they still believe that that wasn’t the problem. They weren’t there at that moment – very precise – so they weren’t with Madeleine when she fell, but they were actually in the apartment so whether they did child checking or not wouldn’t have helped. However if they had been in the apartment for the evening they probably would have smelt, heard, noticed something wrong or maybe popped their head in to the bedroom to check the kids or maybe one of the twins would have stirred and they would have gone into the room to check on them and found Madeleine out of bed. So it could have been a contributing factor.


If you've read this far, congratulations :-) It's still very rubbery and obviously I've tried to stick to facts from the files with wild speculation filling in the gaps. I do not say that this is what happened. I'm just exploring possibilities.

jeanmonroe wrote:
Dr Gerald McCann said on oath to the Leveson enquiry.
I would like to emphasise that I strongly believe in freedom of speech, but where you have people who are repeatedly carrying out inaccuracies and have been shown to do so, then they should be held to account. That is the issue.

1 Shutters
Claim - The McCanns told many family members that the shutters had been forced or broken
Fact  - The shutters had not been forced or broken

2 Entry by Gerry McCann
Claim - Gerry McCann first said he entered through the front door, using his key
Fact - He later said he entered through the patio door, which had been left unlocked.

3 Point of entry
Claim - The intruder must have entered through the open shutters and open window
Later claim or admission - The open shutters and open window may not have been the point of entry or exit

4 Sedation
Claim - The children were not sedated
Later claim - The children must have been sedated
NOTE”  On publication of the book ‘Madeleine’, it became clear that Kate had known or suspected sedation from the start

5 Being made suspects
Claim - Kate told her friends by telephone that she had been made a suspect
Later claim - Kate complained that this was press intrusion, when the only possible source was Kate herself

6 Fluids in car
Claim - The McCanns came up with a range of excuses for bodily fluids found in the car, ranging from sea bass to used nappies.
Later statement - At Leveson Kate said under oath, there were no fluids found in the car

7 Half hourly checks
Claim - The parents were making half hourly checks throughout the week.
Contradiction - The late Mrs Fenn reports a child crying and screaming for over an hour on previous evening

8 Kate’s Dream
Fact - Kate reported to Insp. Paiva that she had had a dream in which she had “seen” Madeleine dead
Denial  - On the steps of the court Gerry publicly denies that Kate had had any such dream

9 Lying in general
Fact - Kate admits lying

10 Afternoon of 3rd May
Claim - Kate arrives after a run to find the children with Gerry at tea
Fact - On that day Kate herself signed Madeleine out of the crèche at 5:30pm

11 Eye defect
Facts
The McCanns released details of the coloboma to the press of the world.
They trademark the sign “Løok”,  in the phrase “Løok for me”
The eye defect is blown upon a giant screen at the FA cup Final,
The eye defect is clearly visible on all photos released as part of the campaign
The eye defect is clearly visible on the front cover picture of the book
Later
Kate denies “putting emphasis on it”

12 Private Detectives
Claim - The McCanns dismiss the idea of using private detectives.
Fact - The McCanns were already using private detectives from Control Risks the previous week

13 The search of the apartment
Claim  - They claim they had no explanation, and that they were made to leave the villa.
Fact - There was a full search warrant, a copy of which was to be served on the McCanns. and they were to be invited to be present.

14 Who spoke to Mrs Fenn ?
Claim - Kate spoke to Mrs Fenn
Contradiction - Mrs Fenn’s statement refers to speaking to Gerry McCann

15 Metodo3 claims that Madeleine would be found by Christmas
Claim - McCanns claim that this was never said
Fact - Kate admits that this was said

16 The colour of the pyjamas
Claim  - The pyjama bottoms were white
Counterclaim - The pyjamas were not white.
Fact - The pyjama trousers were white.

17  Was the apartment re-let before the forensic examination
Claim - The apartment was let several times
Fact - The apartment was not let until February the following year.

Prehensile wrote:If it hasn't been done before, perhaps admin could open a thread where Team McCann can be quoted ad infinitum, I'm sure it would be of benefit for those who have recently become interested.

jeanmonroe wrote:Mr Gerry McCann has STATED publicly that he has absolutely NO problems, personally, with people PURPORTING 'theories' that they have.

Dr Gerald McCann said on oath to the Leveson enquiry.

I would like to emphasise that I strongly believe in freedom of speech, but where you have people who are repeatedly carrying out inaccuracies and have been shown to do so, then they should be held to account. That is the issue. I don’t have a problem with somebody purporting a theory, writing fiction, suggestions, but clearly we’ve got to a stage where substandard reporting and sources, unnamed, made-up, non-verifiable, are a daily occurrence.

So stick with what you KNOW from the 'interviews' TV shows, the McCanns have given, freely, and the publicly released and publicly legally available 'files' and they can't touch you.
(not that you'd want them to touch you, imo)

eg: if Gerry McCann has said publicly, when being interviewed, at a public press conference, about his 'missing' daughter Madeleine, 'that there's no evidence to implicate us in her death' as he did in Lisbon, then you can repeat that, to anyone, ad infinitum.

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Woofer wrote:Prehensile - I`m not getting your sense of humour, or is it not humour?  Is there a reason why Curioser should `toddle off` and also why you posted `pfft .. go back to...` after a new member`s post?

Woofer wrote:Re: Pat Brown.

She initially had her ebook for sale with Amazon (I think) - I`m sure that`s where I bought it.

Then she was informed by Amazon that they could no longer sell it (possibly they`d been threatened again by CR, similarly with GAs book).

She had to transfer her book over to Barnes and Noble where it has continued to sell.

She was talking about sueing someone for preventing the sale of her book but I don`t know if it came to anything.

roy rovers wrote:

Woofer wrote:Re: Pat Brown.

She initially had her ebook for sale with Amazon (I think) - I`m sure that`s where I bought it.

Then she was informed by Amazon that they could no longer sell it (possibly they`d been threatened again by CR, similarly with GAs book).

She had to transfer her book over to Barnes and Noble where it has continued to sell.

She was talking about sueing someone for preventing the sale of her book but I don`t know if it came to anything.

Pat Brown stated on her website some months ago that she'd dropped it on grounds of cost.

Woofer wrote:Prehensile - I`m not getting your sense of humour, or is it not humour?  Is there a reason why Curioser should `toddle off` and also why you posted `pfft .. go back to...` after a new member`s post?

Curioser wrote:

jeanmonroe wrote:Mr Gerry McCann has STATED publicly that he has absolutely NO problems, personally, with people PURPORTING 'theories' that they have.

Dr Gerald McCann said on oath to the Leveson enquiry.

I would like to emphasise that I strongly believe in freedom of speech, but where you have people who are repeatedly carrying out inaccuracies and have been shown to do so, then they should be held to account. That is the issue. I don’t have a problem with somebody purporting a theory, writing fiction, suggestions, but clearly we’ve got to a stage where substandard reporting and sources, unnamed, made-up, non-verifiable, are a daily occurrence.

So stick with what you KNOW from the 'interviews' TV shows, the McCanns have given, freely, and the publicly released and publicly legally available 'files' and they can't touch you.
(not that you'd want them to touch you, imo)

eg: if Gerry McCann has said publicly, when being interviewed, at a public press conference, about his 'missing' daughter Madeleine, 'that there's no evidence to implicate us in her death' as he did in Lisbon, then you can repeat that, to anyone, ad infinitum.

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Ah, but you see that's what I don't want to do. I have a theory that almost completely discounts the Tapas 9 statements about that night and proposes a different set of events. I don't think it's all that radical. I'm sure other people have come up with the same or similar. But it certainly doesn't stick to what we know. Anyway, it's a bit of a mess but I'm working on it. 

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plebgate wrote:

Curioser wrote:

jeanmonroe wrote:Mr Gerry McCann has STATED publicly that he has absolutely NO problems, personally, with people PURPORTING 'theories' that they have.

Dr Gerald McCann said on oath to the Leveson enquiry. 
[snip]

Ah, but you see that's what I don't want to do. I have a theory that almost completely discounts the Tapas 9 statements about that night and proposes a different set of events. I don't think it's all that radical. I'm sure other people have come up with the same or similar. But it certainly doesn't stick to what we know. Anyway, it's a bit of a mess but I'm working on it. 

Touch me? Them? Euuu[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Would like to read your theory Curioser.   thinking about it, why wouldn't you be able to post your theory.   As Mr. said at Leveson enquiry he does not have a problem with people purporting theories and as many have posted since the beginning, we do not know what happened for sure,  we only have their word for it.  They asked people to help them, so of course people are going to put forth theories of what might have happened when very young children were left alone for so long.    It's all very well saying there were half hourly checks but when there are babes involved that might as well be six hours.   A lot can happen in half an hour.

There was a story on the news last week about a 2 year old little one whose mother literally turned her back for a few minutes.   Next thing the little one was dead, the cord from the blind wrapped around her neck.    So very sad.

You never know one of the theories put forth might just help the police, because I think the forums are monitored by the police as well.