Re: Further Analysis of the Last Photo

by Guest 31.10.14 22:49

Atomic Peanut wrote:The temperature was similar, maybe a degree lower on Thursday but 18-21C both days

Show us.

Specifically after midday and before they were signed in the creche.

by SallyVern 31.10.14 22:50

Atomic Peanut wrote:There isn't, and never has been, a weather history that is specific to OC or, in particular, the pool area. Microclimates are very specific - eg sitting on your patio in the sun on a breezy day can be much warmer than being on an exposed beach

However, other recordings at various places along the coast (Sagres, Lagos, Faro Airport) suggest that the Thursday was similar to the Sunday

The wind was, if anything, slightly stronger on the Sunday, there was a fresh breeze on both days but not necessarily affecting the inland shelter of the pool area. We just don't know

The temperature was similar, maybe a degree lower on Thursday but 18-21C both days

There was a clear sky on the Sunday and only scattered clouds on Thursday pm (ie plenty of sunshine)

The windsurfing videos at Portimao on the Thursday back the above

There is no evidence to suggest that it was unpleasantly cool by the pool at lunchtime on Thursday, in fact I reckon it was quite pleasant in the sun out of the wind

I am making no comment about the validity of the last photo in this respect, only remarking that the weather wasn't as bad as some have assumed

I tend to agree with Atomic Peanut - if anyone has taken a look at the first press conference given by GM in the early hours of 4th May, he and wife Kate appear tanned.

by Atomic Peanut 31.10.14 23:08

BlueBag wrote:
Atomic Peanut wrote:The temperature was similar, maybe a degree lower on Thursday but 18-21C both days
Show us.
Specifically after midday and before they were signed in the creche.

Certainly, click below for all readings, remembering that the airport is more exposed than the hotel at Lagos and maybe OC too

Faro Sunday
Faro Thursday
Lagos weather (see below for Sunday and Thursday reports)

Date: 29 April, 2007
With 20ºC we enjoy this sunday at the beach or at our nice restaurant terrasse with the view over the ocean.
Date: 03 May, 2007
Today the sun is back and we have 21ºC. The wind was hounting (?? I think it means moving) the clouds, with success!

At Faro 18C both days, more sun on Sunday but similar wind. However the windsurfing videos at Portimao show lots of sunshine on Thursday
At Lagos, 1 degree warmer on Thursday!

Also remember that the Boyd family, independent witnesses, say they were at the pool on what appears to have been the Thursday. So that makes at least two families

Regarding the amount of sun for the last photo, you can't see the sky, so it only needed a brief sunny moment. But actually there was plenty of sun that afternoon

by Guest 01.11.14 1:08

Atomic Peanut,

Not sure what you're doing but did you look at the temperatures when the last photo was supposed to be taken?

by Atomic Peanut 01.11.14 7:07

Of course I did - temp/wind/sun are not significantly different from what they were had the last photo been taken on 29th April, as has often been speculated here

The weather at Faro airport was 18C/about 30km-h/plenty of sun on both days at 2.30pm

And the pool area is probably much more sheltered (yes that is speculation but it makes sense because the nearby hotel at Lagos was 3C warmer than Faro airport)

There is no reason to suggest that the weather depicted by the last photo is more likely to have been the Sunday than the Thursday. That's what I'm saying

Whether it was taken on either day is another matter, and not the point I am making here

by Guest 01.11.14 7:24

Atomic Peanut wrote:Of course I did - temp/wind/sun are not significantly different from what they were had the last photo been taken on 29th April, as has often been speculated here

No you didn't.

The days are significantly different!

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May 3rd at 2.30 was not summer clothes sitting by the pool weather. It was even colder shortly before.

If you look at the windsurfing videos linked earlier in this thread you'll see plenty of cloud cover over land and to the west of Portimao.

There were strong winds and the surfers look chuffing cold. The people in the boats are wearing fleeces. This is AFTERNOON wind surfing.

You know... when the photo was supposed to be taken.

by Guest 01.11.14 7:44

Rough guide:

Extremely hot: 43c +
Very hot: 34c - 43c
Hot: 29c - 34c
Very warm: 25c - 29c
Warm: 20c - 25c
Very mild: 16c - 20c
Mild/Summer cool: 12c - 16c
Cool/winter mild: 9c - 12c
cool: 3c - 9c
Cold: -3c - 3c
very cold: -3c - minus 10c

So at which point on the graph for May 3rd did they decide "let's get the summer gear on and go dangle our feet in the pool"?

by Hicks 01.11.14 8:45

Going by this photo of the McCann's they do look tanned.

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by **Tony Bennett** 01.11.14 9:24

Atomic Peanut wrote:
BlueBag wrote:
Atomic Peanut wrote:The temperature was similar, maybe a degree lower on Thursday but 18-21C both days
Show us.
Specifically after midday and before they were signed in the creche.
Certainly, click below for all readings, remembering that the airport is more exposed than the hotel at Lagos and maybe OC too

Faro Sunday
Faro Thursday
Lagos weather (see below for Sunday and Thursday reports)

Date: 29 April, 2007
With 20ºC we enjoy this sunday at the beach or at our nice restaurant terrasse with the view over the ocean.
Date: 03 May, 2007
Today the sun is back and we have 21ºC. The wind was hounting (?? I think it means moving) the clouds, with success!

At Faro 18C both days, more sun on Sunday but similar wind. However the windsurfing videos at Portimao show lots of sunshine on Thursday
At Lagos, 1 degree warmer on Thursday!

Also remember that the Boyd family, independent witnesses, say they were at the pool on what appears to have been the Thursday. So that makes at least two families

Regarding the amount of sun for the last photo, you can't see the sky, so it only needed a brief sunny moment. But actually there was plenty of sun that afternoon

@ Atomic Peanut

Blue Bag has given a good answer to this post of yours and the next one of yours.

Whilst I agree that there could have been some moments of sun during Thursday 3rd May, it's clear that there was a lot of cloud cover that day, and it's also clear from the weather charts posted and local records (supplied by PeterMac) that the temperature around 1pm-2pm on 3 May was around 17C to 18C (63F-64F) whilst on Sunday and Monday at this time it was around 20C to 21C (68F-70F).

In terms of likelihood, or probabilities, therefore, Sunday/Monday was far more likely for the photo to have been taken.

PeterMac has had evidence from a local amateur meteorologist in the village of Praia da Luz itself, who supplies all the following data:

Temp at 1pm and 2pm: 17C (63F)
Weather cool and cloudy, only a few brief sunny intervals
Cloud started to clear around 7.15pm (very specific information here) and cleared by 11pm
Wind force at 1pm/2pm: Force 4 - enough to blow one's hair around - no sign of this on the 'Last Photo'.

On top of all that, we have numerous comments from all of the Tapas 7 saying what a cold day and evening it was (except for Gerry McCann's claim that it was a hot night' (!)).

But apart from the weather conditions, there's another feature of the last photo which suggests the photo may not have been taken on 3 May: the shadows. Professionals who have looked at the Last Photo have looked at the shadows and noted two crucial things:

1. The shadows are all very short, and
2. They are uniformly short, i.e. consistent, in a way which would have been impossible to fake.

The sun was at its highest at that time of year at around 1.30pm (BST and Portuguese local time, which are the same). If the photo had really been taken at 2.29pm, as claimed, the shadows on Gerry and the two children would have been longer.

But when all's said and done, the one fact above all others that gives rise to the most suspicion about the date & time the 'Last Photo' was taken is why it was only produced on 24 May, three weeks after the date Madeleine was reported missing.

And just a day after the wife of master photoshopper and quicksand drowning fetishist Tony Rickwood had flown in to Portugal from Scotland, maybe carrying an all-important camera memory card with her

by j.rob 01.11.14 15:15

Madeleine and I met up with Sean, Amelie and Gerry and returned to our apartment for lunch. As the children were getting quite restless in we decided to get them out in the fresh air before the afternoon’s activities. We went to the play area,. We then sat round the toddler pool for a while, dipping our feet in, and I took . . . a photograph of Madeleine." (edited)

Above quote from Kate's book snipped from petermac's post upthread.

Children of this age do not 'sit around'. They run around the whole time. This is simply not credible. They are constantly active in places like playgrounds. They would have been running around, maybe occasionally dipping their toes into the freezing water, they squealing and running off.

Like so much of what Kate's writes, it simply does not ring true. Why not? Because it isn't true, imo.

A bit like that glorious first summer the family spent in their home in Rothley which Kate claims she has such wonderful memories of.

"....the five of us spent many sunny, fun-filled days in the garden, on the swings and slide, blowing bubbles........or chatting in the paddling pool together."

My alert always goes up when either GM or KM emphasize their family of five. Why not just write 'we all' or 'the whole family' or something? I really do wonder if Madeleine lived with them a lot of the time. (Amaral's question: 'did you consider handing over Madeleine to the care of relatives?'

But, that aside, what I wanted to point out is that in the summer of 2006 Madeleine would have been three and a few months and the twins would have been around eighteen months.

A child of three and two children of eighteen months do not sit around chatting with two adults. What happens is that the children run around playing and the adults watch on and chat to each other.

Neither KM or GM have a clue about parenthood, imo. Not a clue.

This is demonstrated again and again. Even in the films that they themselves took part in - the ghastly 'Madeleine was Here' series, it is painfully obvious that they are not remotely interested in engaging with their children. (For instance the creepy 'playing in the garden with the children ' scene where a mystery person walks out of what appears to be a garage door and stands staring on. GM is then shown running up towards the door and the film is weirdly cropped. KM is swinging a child around but her attention is focused on the mystery man. All this has been discussed at length on here on a thread which I think is called 'comments on Cristobell's blog. And the creepy 'family scenes' shot in their home in the kitchen also show, imo, that family life chez Mc was most peculiar, imo. )

by **PeterMac** 01.11.14 15:27

Neither KM or GM have a clue about parenthood, imo. Not a clue.

\What they certainly don't have a clue about is writing a script to make it remotely believable

by spirals 01.11.14 18:07

PeterMac wrote:
Neither KM or GM have a clue about parenthood, imo. Not a clue.

\What they certainly don't have a clue about is writing a script to make it remotely believable

I was thinking about this the other day, actually, because my eldest was watching a Harry Potter movie and my younger child, who's almost 4, was watching with her. He (the youngest) is far too young to follow a story of that length. All he remembers is the monsters and the quidditch. I was remembering KM saying how Madeleine loved Harry Potter and it makes no sense - the movies are too long and a child that age can't focus on any story longer than a Mr Men book. Ateasg neither of my children and I think they're fairly normal!

These comments about sitting at the pool are in the same vein. The sort of things I might have thought about small children BEFORE I had children myself. It's totally huh

by Atomic Peanut 01.11.14 20:40

BlueBag wrote:May 3rd at 2.30 was not summer clothes sitting by the pool weather. It was even colder shortly before.
If you look at the windsurfing videos linked earlier in this thread you'll see plenty of cloud cover over land and to the west of Portimao.
There were strong winds and the surfers look chuffing cold. The people in the boats are wearing fleeces. This is AFTERNOON wind surfing.

Wind speed is measured from a sensor on a mast 10m above the ground

The small kids' pool area at OC is at ground level and very sheltered, protected by being well below the adjacent road and bordered by shrubs, trees and a high wall all to the west. There are multi-storey buildings behind them. See here:

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The wind on 3rd May was WSW, roughly from the direction of the 6 plastic recliners facing us. It isn't hard to imagine the wind being hugely less than 30km/h at ground level in that secluded corner

In addition, humidity (at Faro) on 3rd May was 73 per cent at 2.30pm compared with 56 per cent on 29th April, which would make it feel relatively milder

The wind at the windsurfing event at Portimao isn't relevant. Being from the WSW, it would be coming in straight off the sea onto an unprotected beach. Look how far inland the pool is in comparison

I am not trying to be difficult. I am testing the claim that 3rd May was too cool to be at the pool

by bobbin 01.11.14 21:02

Atomic Peanut wrote:
BlueBag wrote:May 3rd at 2.30 was not summer clothes sitting by the pool weather. It was even colder shortly before.
If you look at the windsurfing videos linked earlier in this thread you'll see plenty of cloud cover over land and to the west of Portimao.
There were strong winds and the surfers look chuffing cold. The people in the boats are wearing fleeces. This is AFTERNOON wind surfing.
Wind speed is measured from a sensor on a mast 10m above the ground

The small kids' pool area at OC is at ground level and very sheltered, protected by being well below the adjacent road and bordered by shrubs, trees and a high wall all to the west. See here:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The wind on 3rd May was WSW, roughly from the direction of the 6 plastic recliners facing us. It isn't hard to imagine the wind being hugely less than 30km/h at ground level in that secluded corner

In addition, humidity (at Faro) on 3rd May was 73 per cent at 2.30pm compared with 56 per cent on 29th April, which would make it feel relatively milder

The wind at the windsurfing event at Portimao isn't relevant. Being from the WSW, it would be coming in straight off the sea onto an unprotected beach

I am not trying to be difficult. I am testing the claim that 3rd May was too cool to be at the pool

Far from being protected, the area is geographically wide open.
Few high buildings, few trees, wide open tennis courts, open double pool and green park /tapas area, bull-dozed building plot in wind direction beyond the beach loungers.

The wind for the windsurfing competition that day was really very good for surfing, which only works if it's good and windy.

The filming of the windsurfing event shows blue sky out to sea and cloud / humid haze over the land. Most people are wearing long trousers, jacket/tops. Only a few are in shorts etc.

Higher humidity and winds strong enough for a windsurfing competition will feel colder than drier air.

I live in France and our weather forecasts now include two temperature readings, one which includes a wind/humidity coefficient factor and it is always colder. Furthermore, the whole tapas group complained bitterly about the 'cold'.

However hard one might try to make the 3rd May a lovely day, to make the 'last photo' a hot, sweaty, summer clothes day, Gerry's sunglasses have been put in place to try to persuade us it was a day worthy of sunglasses.

The poor kids are left with 'unprotected' eyes, but Dad's OK, and why weren't Maddie's little summer shorts, top and sunhat made available for the first dogs to sniff, so that they could at least have had a decent chance at trying to capture a track to find the little girl before it got too late and too dark.

by Atomic Peanut 01.11.14 21:16

Please read my post and review the photograph again bobbin - the wind was a WSW from the right
The wind at ground level is always less than at 10m (the height at which wind speed is recorded) and it decreases more depending on the number of things in the way (creating friction)
There is no friction off the sea onto the beach, there is significant friction created by buildings
If you are sitting behind a wall and a number of big shrubs, the wind may even be reduced to nil

It is not possible to deduce anything conclusive about the conditions at the pool at 2.30pm on 3rd May without actually having been there
But the Boyd family, who met the McCs there, obviously didn't think it was too cold because they spent more than an hour there playing
See again how sheltered it is from a WSW wind (blowing from the right) in the photo below:

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by **Tony Bennett** 01.11.14 21:51

Atomic Peanut wrote:
BlueBag wrote:May 3rd at 2.30 was not summer clothes sitting by the pool weather. It was even colder shortly before.
If you look at the windsurfing videos linked earlier in this thread you'll see plenty of cloud cover over land and to the west of Portimao.
There were strong winds and the surfers look chuffing cold. The people in the boats are wearing fleeces. This is AFTERNOON wind surfing.
Wind speed is measured from a sensor on a mast 10m above the ground

The small kids' pool area at OC is at ground level and very sheltered, protected by being well below the adjacent road and bordered by shrubs, trees and a high wall all to the west. There are multi-storey buildings behind them. See here:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The wind on 3rd May was WSW, roughly from the direction of the 6 plastic recliners facing us. It isn't hard to imagine the wind being hugely less than 30km/h at ground level in that secluded corner

In addition, humidity (at Faro) on 3rd May was 73 per cent at 2.30pm compared with 56 per cent on 29th April, which would make it feel relatively milder

The wind at the windsurfing event at Portimao isn't relevant. Being from the WSW, it would be coming in straight off the sea onto an unprotected beach. Look how far inland the pool is in comparison

I am not trying to be difficult. I am testing the claim that 3rd May was too cool to be at the pool

@ Atomic Peanut

I'm sorry, but I just don't see where you are going with your repeated attempts to show that the Last Photo could have been taken on 3 May (sunny intervals, not much wind really, nice sheltered microclimate by the pool, wind WSW, etc. etc.), on and on and on.

None of us is I think saying that it is IMPOSSIBLE that the 'Last Photo' was taken on 3 May. We are merely saying that factors like the sun, the warmth, the wind, the cloud cover etc. make it FAR MORE LIKELY to have been taken on Sunday 29th or Monday 30th.

Do you agree?

Could you please assist us all by telling us plainly whether you concede all of the following:

1. The temperature between about 12noon and 3pm on 3 May was about 17-18C (64F) but about 20-21C (70C) on 29 & 30 April

2. It was cloudy with only brief sunny intervals on 3 May, but mostly sunny throughout 29 & 30 April

3. That given what we know about the respective temperatures and amount of sun on 3 May compared with 29 & 30 April, it is far more likely that the ‘Last Photo’ was taken on either 29 or 30 April rather than 3 May.

Forgive me again, but no-one is saying it is IMPOSSIBLE that the Last Photo could have been taken on 3 May.

We are merely saying that it is FAR MORE LIKLEY to have been taken on 29 or 30 April

by Atomic Peanut 01.11.14 22:00

Where I am going is that posters have repeatedly referred to 3rd May as having been too cool and cloudy for spending time by the pool
I have successfully pointed out that this is not necessarily true, and you appear to have agreed with me that it might have been taken on that day
The weather conditions you quote are not for the microclimate around the pool, they are for another part of PdL, and there could be huge differences. In particular, wind speed keeps being pointlessly quoted from charts when that reading is taken 10m off the ground, and nobody spends any time up there

I have had lunch on my sheltered patio in the UK in March when it is far too cold and windy out in the open

I have no idea when the last photo was taken, or even if it is real, but there is a chance that it may have been taken on 3rd May

I do hope I am not banned from the forum for having a different opinion from most others because I am not here to cause trouble, I am here to correct what I perceive to be misconceptions, thus leading to the truth. In other words, I am trying to help

by canada12 01.11.14 22:09

Might I just reiterate my own observations concerning the weather?

When was the tennis balls photo taken?

Madeleine clearly has a deeply suntanned right arm in that picture.
She does not have a suntanned left arm in The Last Photo.
I think it highly unlikely she'd have a right arm suntanned and a left arm not suntanned.
If the Last Photo really was taken on May 3, how do we explain Madeleine's suntanned arm in the tennis balls photo?

by Guest 01.11.14 22:13

Atomic Peanut wrote:Where I am going is that posters have repeatedly referred to 3rd May as having been too cool and cloudy for spending time by the pool
I have successfully pointed out that this is not necessarily true, and you appear to have agreed with me that it might have been taken on that day
The weather conditions you quote are not for the microclimate around the pool, they are for another part of PdL, and there could be huge differences. In particular, wind speed keeps being pointlessly quoted from charts when that reading is taken 10m off the ground, and nobody spends any time up there

I have had lunch on my sheltered patio in the UK in March when it is far too cold and windy out in the open

I have no idea when the last photo was taken, or even if it is real, but there is a chance that it may have been taken on 3rd May

I do hope I am not banned from the forum for having a different opinion from most others because I am not here to cause trouble, I am here to correct what I perceive to be misconceptions, thus leading to the truth. In other words, I am trying to help

Nobody is banned for having a different opinion nah

by bobbin 01.11.14 22:22

PeterMac, I've P.M'd you.

by Atomic Peanut 01.11.14 22:27

Thanks Admin

Regarding C12's question (and this will be my final post of the day in case it looks as if I am staging a takeover of this topic)

If you compare the last photo with a similar pic taken by stressedoutmother in Sept 2007, there are differences in tone. The pool surround is lighter in the last photo, so maybe in reality the skin tones should be darker too. Can't prove though

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please share your thoughts bobbin!
Goodnight, AP

by canada12 01.11.14 22:47

Atomic Peanut wrote:Thanks Admin

Regarding C12's question (and this will be my final post of the day in case it looks as if I am staging a takeover of this topic)

If you compare the last photo with a similar pic taken by stressedoutmother in Sept 2007, there are differences in tone. The pool surround is lighter in the last photo, so maybe in reality the skin tones should be darker too. Can't prove though

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

please share your thoughts bobbin!
Goodnight, AP

Ah yes, but you'll notice that the tiled portion of the pool in The Last Photo is darker than the tiled portion in HiDeHo's version of the picture. Also the wall behind them is darker in The Last Photo, as is the large tree trunk (if you look at a full shot of both pictures). And the tan coloured pool deck is almost exactly the same colour in both.

So I don't think that solves it, unfortunately.

by **Tony Bennett** 01.11.14 23:03

Atomic Peanut wrote:Where I am going is that posters have repeatedly referred to 3rd May as having been too cool and cloudy for spending time by the pool
I have successfully pointed out that this is not necessarily true, and you appear to have agreed with me that it might have been taken on that day
The weather conditions you quote are not for the microclimate around the pool, they are for another part of PdL, and there could be huge differences. In particular, wind speed keeps being pointlessly quoted from charts when that reading is taken 10m off the ground, and nobody spends any time up there

I have had lunch on my sheltered patio in the UK in March when it is far too cold and windy out in the open

I have no idea when the last photo was taken, or even if it is real, but there is a chance that it may have been taken on 3rd May

I do hope I am not banned from the forum for having a different opinion from most others because I am not here to cause trouble, I am here to correct what I perceive to be misconceptions, thus leading to the truth. In other words, I am trying to help

@ Atomic Peanut

Could you please simply answer my three questions.

You said "I am trying to help".

REPLY: This seems very unlikely, if in fact (as I think you must) you concede my three points - I await your reply.

I still cannot fathom why you are so insistent on packing post after post with details trying to convince us that the pool really was a warm, sunny and cosy spot to be on 3 May - when the overwhelming evidence seems to be against it.

Moreover, the unexplained delay of three weeks in producing this photo - when it was available the night Madeleine went missing - cries out for a rational explanation, and we are here trying to find out what the true explanation is. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm unaware of any contribution you have made so far towards solving this baffling conundrum.

All I see is you droning on about WSW winds, microclimates, cosy warm spots out of the wind, and your reliance on brief 'sunny intervals' on a day which undoubtedly was cloudy and cool in Praia da Luz.

Let's put it this way, AP, it doesn't look as though you're helping.

You also said: "I do hope I am not banned from the forum for having a different opinion from most others". And Admin has given you a correct answer to that on behalf of her forum.

However, judgments have to be made at the end of the day sometimes about whether a person has joined the forum to help or hinder.