University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
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University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
by Jill Havern 04.01.19 10:04
Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
(English version)
André Van Dokkum
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(English version)
André Van Dokkum
- University of Macau
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Re: University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
by Phoebe 04.01.19 12:04
The above theory does not attempt to tackle the greatest obstacle it faces ie. the McCanns' inexplicable behaviour immediately after their 3 year old allegedly walked out and went missing.
Why did they not search for her if they believed that she had gotten out of the apartment and wandered. What parents would lie down to rest and sleep while their lost child wandered about at risk, wasting the vital golden period for recovery after a child goes missing. What kind of parents would not confess their neglect at once in hopes of recovering their child or at the very least, recovering her remains. Is he suggesting that they cared more about their reputation than about their child's recovery. What parents would ignore the claim that a man had been seen down town carrying a sleeping child, identical in description to Madeleine, just at the time her disappearance occurred. Here they could have had evidence of "abduction" to exonerate them, yet they shunned it.
Simple answer - parents who knew full well where she was and that she was no longer alive and that they had more to lose than to gain by recovering her corpse.
Why did they not search for her if they believed that she had gotten out of the apartment and wandered. What parents would lie down to rest and sleep while their lost child wandered about at risk, wasting the vital golden period for recovery after a child goes missing. What kind of parents would not confess their neglect at once in hopes of recovering their child or at the very least, recovering her remains. Is he suggesting that they cared more about their reputation than about their child's recovery. What parents would ignore the claim that a man had been seen down town carrying a sleeping child, identical in description to Madeleine, just at the time her disappearance occurred. Here they could have had evidence of "abduction" to exonerate them, yet they shunned it.
Simple answer - parents who knew full well where she was and that she was no longer alive and that they had more to lose than to gain by recovering her corpse.
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Re: University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
by PeterMac 04.01.19 13:29
Another example, from the other side of the world, of people beginning to recognise that the ‘story’ put out by TM cannot work.
Dokkum criticises Gonçalo Amaral for failing to reconcile various points in the narrative, when the fact is they can never be reconciled.
The narrative contains, as he says “very problematic aspects”.
From time to time there are flashes of perspicacity,
“However is needs to be determined whether this visit [MO’s alleged 2130] really existed or was a fabrication”. Well quite !
“The task should be to investigate the plausibility of this scenario”. Got it in one, Sir.
He draws attention to three issues which might bear further investigation.
1 The group knew soon that Madeleine left alone, because some members were searching for her, as is confirmed by independent witnesses, seeking "a girl", not "a girl possibly with an adult.”
It seems established that everyone was told to look for A GIRL, not an adult, or a pack of adults, or an adult in a car - with a girl. The photo was of a girl. Tanner’s alleged sighting of an adult with a girl was deliberately withheld by her, or by the group, until long after the first searches had been concluded.
2 This was another error of the group; to resort to the media when the story to tell had not yet been consolidated.
They may have been secure in the belief that everyone would believe the core story, and would not delve too deeply into the details too soon. To an extent they were correct. Dr Amaral and his team were presented with 9 professional and apparently reliable people all giving the same core story. There are few investigators who would ignore that amount of corroborative evidence in the first 24 hours.
As we know, within a day the cracks had begun to show, and all the subsequent back-filling proved catastrophic for the credibility of the first version, reaching its nadir when Mitchell was forced to admit the story about the shutters and window had been an total invention, only then to compound it by claiming, even more ludicrously, that the window might have been the point of egress.
3 In this, mistakes were made which were not detected by the Portuguese authorities, who continued to treat people like Matthew and Jane as unreliable witnesses rather than as part of the core problem in which they participated, the abandonment-with-checks system.
That is quite powerful, capable of being read as MO and JT were not merely unreliable, as in wrong or mistaken; they were part of the core problem, in deliberately giving false statements.
His final sentences however leave much to be desired. Having accused the Attorney General and Dr Amaral of the same error he concludes
One of the most important tasks of the investigations must be the probable causal relationship between the abandonment-with-checks system and the disappearance of Madeleine. It should have been obvious.
With respect, it is not obvious.
With the benefit of a decade of research and the minute dissection of statements and other available evidence, what is obvious is that the disappearance of Madeleine has nothing at all to do with the abandonment-with-checks system.
Any link is between the alleged abandonment-with-checks system and the reported disappearance of Madeleine.
Only if you step one pace back can you see this.
Dokkum criticises Gonçalo Amaral for failing to reconcile various points in the narrative, when the fact is they can never be reconciled.
The narrative contains, as he says “very problematic aspects”.
From time to time there are flashes of perspicacity,
“However is needs to be determined whether this visit [MO’s alleged 2130] really existed or was a fabrication”. Well quite !
“The task should be to investigate the plausibility of this scenario”. Got it in one, Sir.
He draws attention to three issues which might bear further investigation.
1 The group knew soon that Madeleine left alone, because some members were searching for her, as is confirmed by independent witnesses, seeking "a girl", not "a girl possibly with an adult.”
It seems established that everyone was told to look for A GIRL, not an adult, or a pack of adults, or an adult in a car - with a girl. The photo was of a girl. Tanner’s alleged sighting of an adult with a girl was deliberately withheld by her, or by the group, until long after the first searches had been concluded.
2 This was another error of the group; to resort to the media when the story to tell had not yet been consolidated.
They may have been secure in the belief that everyone would believe the core story, and would not delve too deeply into the details too soon. To an extent they were correct. Dr Amaral and his team were presented with 9 professional and apparently reliable people all giving the same core story. There are few investigators who would ignore that amount of corroborative evidence in the first 24 hours.
As we know, within a day the cracks had begun to show, and all the subsequent back-filling proved catastrophic for the credibility of the first version, reaching its nadir when Mitchell was forced to admit the story about the shutters and window had been an total invention, only then to compound it by claiming, even more ludicrously, that the window might have been the point of egress.
3 In this, mistakes were made which were not detected by the Portuguese authorities, who continued to treat people like Matthew and Jane as unreliable witnesses rather than as part of the core problem in which they participated, the abandonment-with-checks system.
That is quite powerful, capable of being read as MO and JT were not merely unreliable, as in wrong or mistaken; they were part of the core problem, in deliberately giving false statements.
His final sentences however leave much to be desired. Having accused the Attorney General and Dr Amaral of the same error he concludes
One of the most important tasks of the investigations must be the probable causal relationship between the abandonment-with-checks system and the disappearance of Madeleine. It should have been obvious.
With respect, it is not obvious.
With the benefit of a decade of research and the minute dissection of statements and other available evidence, what is obvious is that the disappearance of Madeleine has nothing at all to do with the abandonment-with-checks system.
Any link is between the alleged abandonment-with-checks system and the reported disappearance of Madeleine.
Only if you step one pace back can you see this.
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Re: University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
by Miss Pandora 06.01.19 0:45
If Mr Amaral believed Maddie fell from sofa and died trying to get attention from her father, hearing him conversing with Jez on the street outside, then who, I wonder does Mr Amaral think it was who actually found Maddie??Matt? Maybe. If not, then can only have been Kate. Or can it? If Gerry went back to the apartment after Matt then naturally it would have been him. Not much time to act. Mr Amaral surely must then conclude in all probabiliy that The Smiths were correct in suggesting Gerry was the person they saw.
If Maddie left herself through front door, fell and came to harm and was located very soon after by Gerry during immediate search, then dogs were wrong. The timeframe is so tight. Why would Gerry walk through the streets cradling his sick or deceased child unless he had no choice. Had he actually found her and was trying to take her back to the apartment but got disorientated and then once seen by The Smiths realised had to promote abduction instead. For this to have happened discovery of Maddie missing must have been sometime earlier.
If Maddie left herself through front door, fell and came to harm and was located very soon after by Gerry during immediate search, then dogs were wrong. The timeframe is so tight. Why would Gerry walk through the streets cradling his sick or deceased child unless he had no choice. Had he actually found her and was trying to take her back to the apartment but got disorientated and then once seen by The Smiths realised had to promote abduction instead. For this to have happened discovery of Maddie missing must have been sometime earlier.
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Re: University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
by PeterMac 06.01.19 7:33
I don't think there is any point in trying to work out what Dr Amaral might have thought 12 years ago.
I think that, like the rest of the world since, he realised the initial cover story was a load of nonsense, and tried to look behind it to see what might have happened.
I think that, like the rest of the world since, he realised the initial cover story was a load of nonsense, and tried to look behind it to see what might have happened.
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Re: University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
by Miss Pandora 06.01.19 13:38
F
You are right of course. Nothing from the statements holds together, but interesting research nonetheless.PeterMac wrote:I don't think there is any point in trying to work out what Dr Amaral might have thought 12 years ago.
I think that, like the rest of the world since, he realised the initial cover story was a load of nonsense, and tried to look behind it to see what might have happened.
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Re: University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
by PeterMac 06.01.19 14:45
interesting to go over again and again the same ground, just in case there is something we had missed.
Just in case we can find two people saying the same thing - corroborating each other. Just once !
Just in case we could find someone to describe how an abduction could possibly have happened - USING THE OBJECTIVE FACTS
But sadly, after 12 years of detailed analysis by hundreds of dedicated people . . there is nothing.
It did not make sense then.
It does not make sense now.
And the McCanns, the Tapas 7, their lawyers, their accountants, and their apologists are incapable of providing the ONE piece of real evidence which would show how it happened and shut everyone else up.
Just ONE piece will be enough.
That is how Science and the Law work
Just in case we can find two people saying the same thing - corroborating each other. Just once !
Just in case we could find someone to describe how an abduction could possibly have happened - USING THE OBJECTIVE FACTS
But sadly, after 12 years of detailed analysis by hundreds of dedicated people . . there is nothing.
It did not make sense then.
It does not make sense now.
And the McCanns, the Tapas 7, their lawyers, their accountants, and their apologists are incapable of providing the ONE piece of real evidence which would show how it happened and shut everyone else up.
Just ONE piece will be enough.
That is how Science and the Law work
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Re: University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
by Guest 06.01.19 21:55
I wonder if the McCanns genuinely do not know where Madeleine is, because the disposal of her body was handed over to other parties to deal with? That is perhaps why they have not cracked - it is a question they really cannot answer.
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Re: University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
by PeterMac 07.01.19 14:55
I think if that were true, they would not have been smiling and laughing and gurning so much over the years.
It would be VERY dangerous to have someone else in on the secret, when that person, or those persons hold your liberty and happiness in their gift.
Though the lines on Kate's face may tell a story !
It would be VERY dangerous to have someone else in on the secret, when that person, or those persons hold your liberty and happiness in their gift.
Though the lines on Kate's face may tell a story !
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Re: University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
by nglfi 13.01.19 13:45
He makes an interesting point about MO, in that he wouldn't willingly place himself near the scene of a crime when he wasn't actually there. However, if he KNEW this wasn't the scene of the crime, then no harm could come of it. If all the Tapas 9 were fully informed of what happened and had a pact, then he couldn't be linked with Madeleine's disappearance because he knew she had already been disposed of by that point.
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Re: University of Macau: Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: a criticism of Gonçalo Amaral's theory
by PeterMac 13.01.19 16:26
Well, sort of.
But the cover story (if there was one) seems to have left him in a vulnerable position, as the last one to - allegedly - have seen Madeleine alive.
That would have made him liable to very intense scrutiny, (In Britain that person would routinely be brought in for questioning, initially as an important witness with a VERY detailed statement being taken, and ever part of it taken apart by HOLMES II and double checked . . .)
His only way out then would be to reveal that the story was (allegedly) a fantasy, better for him on both counts therefore to distance himself from the story, by making Gerry the Last Person to see Madeline Alive, and let him get on with it.
The more people you involve, the more chance there is of the story falling to pieces - - - Oh, hang on a minute ! ! !
But the cover story (if there was one) seems to have left him in a vulnerable position, as the last one to - allegedly - have seen Madeleine alive.
That would have made him liable to very intense scrutiny, (In Britain that person would routinely be brought in for questioning, initially as an important witness with a VERY detailed statement being taken, and ever part of it taken apart by HOLMES II and double checked . . .)
His only way out then would be to reveal that the story was (allegedly) a fantasy, better for him on both counts therefore to distance himself from the story, by making Gerry the Last Person to see Madeline Alive, and let him get on with it.
The more people you involve, the more chance there is of the story falling to pieces - - - Oh, hang on a minute ! ! !
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