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Post by Paddingtom 01.05.24 14:08

mmmm....all interesting theories.....

Cake Lover, might I respectfully suggest that rather than having three wishes, you only need to have one:    A wish whenever I want.
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Post by Cake Lover 01.05.24 15:03

I suppose I can spare one. Promise you'll have cake and  chocolate declared free of charge forever, though.
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Post by TheOtherSide 05.05.24 23:03

I'm not sure if the sighting is real or not.
Credits for a hoax: which of the Tapas members would lend Gerry their child for a walk? On top of that, may it be heavily medicated and in someone else's pajamas? So couldn't it be evil not to wear their own pajamas and wake up in the middle of the neighborhood in the arms of their own parents? So not screaming and crying?
Did they really think, good idea, that Maddie's sedation was an accident?


The only scenario that really holds water for me is that he carried Amelie through the streets, creating an abduction backdrop. Maybe he didn't want to get caught in a close sighting and it didn't help in the beginning.


But in the end, they were aware of the people who already thought they were responsible for the death, and it doesn't matter if more think that now anyway. 
Because the important thing was: no searching for Maddie, no digging deeper.
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Post by Paddingtom 07.05.24 8:11

Ive been doing a bit more research on the Smithman sighting and I feel I want to clarify a few things......please forgive me if Ive misunderstood something or do not know about a crucial piece of evidence as Ive only just got interested in all this and Im still learning.

It seems that a lot of people are not convinced it was Gerry because they say it is daft to recognise him from carrying his lad at the airport...I tend to agree...it didnt seem that unique to me....However, that said, I do think it was Gerry because Aoife Smith volunteered the buttons on the trousers...whilst not totally unique, when you add it to the beige trousers, dark jacket  height all that stuff etc. it is quite convincing...so on balance I do think it was Gerry.

I do not believe he was carrying Maddie....a corpse head  could flop about and its madness to be disposing of a body at the same time as the alarm is being raised......you get rid of the body well before you raise the alarm...   So, I believe it was Ella (same age) probably in her own pjs as paernts understandably wouldnt want Maddis pjs and it was also cold, so better to have long sleeved pjs.

Many people point out the weirdness of the similarity between all the sighting.....same clothes, general description.... My thinking is that it was intentional.  As I said initially, I believe Gerry staged an abduction with the intention of being seen on cctv...therefore team mccann sightings would need to tie in with what was intended to be seen on cctv.  i.e. cctv  catches someone wearing beige trousers etc, 2 people see someone wearing beige trousers etc carrying a child.....Police will look for someone wearing beige trousers......  The Smith description also mentions beige trousers because that is exactly what they saw he was wearing.  so, Tannerman and Sagresman had to have beige trousers too...Im not sure if they identified Sagresman in advance and then got Gerry to dress like him, or whether they had to find someone wearing similar clothes to Gerry afterwards, but eitherway, they all had to stiplulate beige trousers etc to match the cctv sighting.

However, when the large Smith family got close enough to gerry to speak to him it was far too likely he could be identified and they had to abandon the cctv attempt.......Hence Jane tanner tried to point them in totally the opposite direction and they tried to dismiss the Smith sighting and stop the cctv becoming available....  Gerry changed out of his cctv clothes and into something different when he got back because the police would notice the similarity of his clothes to all the descriptions that were about to come in.
....he then discarded them expecting someone else to clear up after him as many people do....but kate was busy running round screaming "theyve taken her" and was unable to clear up after gerry so his discarded  cctv clothes were left on display rather than being put back in the cupboard.

Once the Smith sighting had scuppered their plans to get a random geezer wearing beige trousers carrying a child on cctv, they should have changed the description of the tannerman and sagresman to something else but either forgot, or if Sagresman had been earmarked beforemand and they dressed gerry the same, then perhaps they figured they would stick with the same description...at a later date realiseing the focus was on gerry, they had to change their descriptions to something else....anything but not beige trousers etc....   By this time the Smith sighting is known about and quite implicating so someone had a frindly chat and suggested it would be good for their health and maybe even lucrative to join team mccan.....  
So, in short, all the sightings were starngely similar because they were meant to be..they had to match the cctv clothes.....The smith sighting agreed with them because they actually did see gerry carrying ella in beige trousers etc...

now, as I say, im new to all this so please let me know if ive misunderstood something or you spot a flaw in my theory....Im not so wedded to it that I wont be shifted from the idea if theere a good reason why my theory doesnt work...... it seems to make sense to me, but then im not as experienced as most of you....
let me know why you think my theory doesnt work.
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Post by Silentscope 07.05.24 14:25

It would be worth checking the Location of the CCTV at the Hotel against 'Smithman's' route and whether the Child would have been covering his Face from the Camera's view?

It has probably all been done before, but might help you out?

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Post by crusader 07.05.24 16:47

If the Smith's could 100% have identified the man carrying a child as Gerry McCann, how would he have explained that to the police?
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Post by Cake Lover 07.05.24 19:27

He'd have said that the Smith's, people he didn't know, were notoriously unreliable.
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Post by Silentscope 07.05.24 19:42

[color:72b6=000000]Goncalo Amaral sees it so:


[color:72b6=000000]"The testimony of one of the members of the Smith family that identified Gerry McCann as being the man he saw on the night that Maddie disappeared, carrying a child in his arms as he walked towards the beach was devalued after I left the case. It is a lie that the e-fit that the British police now made public is based on the Smith family's witness statement."

The statements are from Gonçalo Amaral, the former PJ coordinator who investigated the disappearance of Madeleine McCann, to Correio da Manhã. They appear following the publication of e-fits by the Scotland Yard that point one of the drawings out as being that of the main suspect over the presumed abduction of the English child, on the 3rd of May of 2007 - which they say was based on the testimony of an Irish family that was on holiday in Praia da Luz when Maddie disappeared.

"The Smith family told us what they saw that night. A man, a foreigner, of athletic build, a sunburned face, like those of tourists, who was hiding his face in order not to be seen, carrying a blonde child in his arms," Gonçalo Amaral said. "A short time later, when the McCann family 'fled' to the United Kingdom, and were welcomed by the television at the airport, a member of the Smith family called us, very upset. Gerry [Maddie's father], who was leaving the plane, was the man that Mr Smith had seen carrying a child that night," the former coordinator explained.

For Gonçalo Amaral, "there was a positive identification, which was set aside". "The McCann's hired detectives who made a portrait, a man that resembled Gerry, in order to devalue the deposition," he concluded.



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Post by Paddingtom 08.05.24 7:49

Silentscope thankyou so much for that video I hadnt seen it before. It does seem that (as has been mentioned before) there was this critical cctv that unfortunately the pj got to too late.   It seems that the road heads towards the beach and it ties in nicely with my theory that someone was waiting for Gerry and Ella with a car...it looks like that car could have been parked around the corner where it would have been out of sight of the cctv.  Unfortunately it all went pear shaped before he got to the car because he was seen by the Smiths.  As Crusader points out, he didnt want to be seen by anyone for fear of identification so this crucial event changed everything, They had to abandon plan A and try and distract everyone from an abducter heading to the beach, so jane tanner said she saw "him" going in totally the opposite direction and they had to try and get the smith sighting dismissed...but Goncalo was too clever for them. If only they had that cctv.    anyway, once team mccann were sure there was no incriminating cctv they were able to give more credit to the smith sighting because it would look very odd if they refuse to entertain every potential sighting.  thankyou to Silentscope for your Goncalo statement too.....most informative.     Interestingly, I was looking at some files and discovered that Russ obrien, father of ella, was missing from the tapas bar from 9.30 till 10,00ish supposedly because of a sickly daughter.....or maybe because he was also in the car waiting for gerry, ready to comfort Ella if shed woken up....she wasnt ill, she was being used as a decoy.   The other thing Ive found is really just by way of interest...  The picture of Sagresman looks in weirdly the same position holding his arms out infront of himself as jane tanner described tannerman carrying an abducted child!!  Its a very strange way to carry a child, but maybe she got inspiration from seeing the photos in advance of her statement..*not sure how the timeline works with this so maybe coincidence)..teh photos are about 3/4 of the way down...im sorry I havent got the skills to extract the photo individually...    
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Post by Verity 08.05.24 8:24

Jane Tanner saw the 'abductor' with arms outstretched carrying a child. 

But the Smiths recognised Gerry from the plane by the way he was carrying Sean with his head resting on his shoulder.

So which is it?

And maybe Gerry was carrying Amelie who had blonde hair, rather than Ella whose hair is darker. 

If it happened at all.
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Post by PeterMac 08.05.24 9:04

Verity wrote:Jane Tanner saw the 'abductor' with arms outstretched carrying a child. 
But the Smiths recognised Gerry from the plane by the way he was carrying Sean with his head resting on his shoulder.
So which is it?
And maybe Gerry was carrying Amelie who had blonde hair, rather than Ella whose hair is darker. 
If it happened at all.
The Jane Tanner one clearly did NOT happen.
The Smith one may simply be a random bloke carrying his child, and nothing to do with the McCanns at all.
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Post by Silentscope 08.05.24 9:36

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The easiest way to treat this Case is to view everything that originated from ‘Team McCann’ as a Lie which has the intention of covering up their own failures, or shielding their reputations.

Most sightings were coming from ordinary people who were just trying to be helpful.

Other sightings however have strong links to either Rothley or Eire.



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Post by Paddingtom 08.05.24 12:23

PeterMac wrote:
Verity wrote:Jane Tanner saw the 'abductor' with arms outstretched carrying a child. 
But the Smiths recognised Gerry from the plane by the way he was carrying Sean with his head resting on his shoulder.
So which is it?
And maybe Gerry was carrying Amelie who had blonde hair, rather than Ella whose hair is darker. 
If it happened at all.
The Jane Tanner one clearly did NOT happen.
The Smith one may simply be a random bloke carrying his child, and nothing to do with the McCanns at all.
I agree Tannerman was a fabrication....(unfortunately with clothes the same as gerry and the cctv, as that it what the original plan was)

And yes, absolutely Smithman could have been some innocent geezer with his daughter......but you do have the problem of buttons on trousers as specified by little Oife Smith.......not unique, but very interesting all the same...and gerry it would appear together with Russ were missing from the tapas.....

Also, even if they knew it was innocent, the Mccann team would leap on the sighting like their lives depended on it.....1) to backup their story and 2) to be seen to be following up all options..........thier dismissal of the sighting is a red flag for me......not the actions of parents trying to prove their daughter has been taken.....I know that they knew she hadnt, but they needed to show an interest for optics sake.    They probably would have even been keen for random geezer to be arested and charged...job done....

and yes, if it was gerry, it could have been Amelie but not sure how the sizes would work for the cctv,,,,,,how much smaller was Amelie?.....Ella was probably closer to the right size...
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Post by crusader 08.05.24 16:33

Jane tanner was quite specific that the man she saw had collar length dark hair, exact oppisite to Gerry's.
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Post by Silentscope 08.05.24 21:21

Maybe Tanner saw ‘Frickerman’ ? laugh

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Post by PeterMac 09.05.24 6:50

Occam's Razor defeats Smithman for me.
If the intention was to be seen, then a dark street corner after a longish walk down a road in open ground on the off chance that someone might be there at all, and then might notice, and then might link that with the reports, and then might come forward, and then might speak English and be able to describe . . .  is a few steps too far.
If the intention was NOT to be seen then the reverse applies
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Post by Paddingtom 09.05.24 8:03

Hi Crusade...My belief is that as soon as Gerry got back to the resort, he told them he had been seen by the large Smith family and the implications were immediately obvius.  So it was decided to try and get everyone to concentrate in totally the opposite direction. Jane thought to make her tannerman look less like gerry saying he had longer hair, but with it having been agreed in advance, she stuck to the beige trousers bit...a sort of half and half....sticking to the original plan as much as possible, but altering the description a bit to deflect from it being too close to Gerry......

Hi PeterMac....The crucial thing is that they DID NOT want Gerry to be seen by people.......hence back streets......... They wanted gerry to be seen by CCTV and CCTV alone........

.If there really had beeen a genuine adductor, he would most likely take back streets to avaoid being seen, so gerry taking the same route was twofold.....it replicated a sensible route for a real adducter and he would be unlikely to be seen by anyone......the only eveidence of an abductor at all would be the cctv picking one up.........it was all about CCTV.....

Think of it this way.......My belief is that if gerry had not been seen by a several people ( a couple of drunks wouldnt have mattered) he would have continued towards the beach and round the corner, been picked up in a car parked out of sight with a driver and Russ in it.  Russ would comfort Ella and they would be driven  back to the resort.
Kate would scream "Abduction"  and jane Tanner would say she had seen an abductor heading towards the beach  and they would demand that the pj seize the CCTV on the route to the beach......when they did, there and behold would be the adductor heading towards the beach and round the corner out of sight.....the implication being that he was heading towards a waiting speedboat and it would all be over before you could say Morrocco.    However, the smith sighting changed everyting.  It had become far too risky as they could potentially recognise Gerry so they switched to plan B and Jane then had to see an adductor going in toattly the opposite direction....    If the smith sighting hadnt happened, Morrocco would have been swarming with police.  The smiths were the spanner in the works.....they changed everything.


I hope ive made myself clearer....im sorry that I dont appear to be explaining myself very well......     Think of it as being all about CCTV ....they did not want the complication of having independant witnesses involved, they just wanted cctv to witness it...nothing else...and noone else and definately not the smiths.....

hope that hepls....
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Post by Paddingtom 09.05.24 8:30

Hi Petermac, me again...sorry... I didnt know what occams razor was but Ive just looked it up and my loose translation is that the simplest plan is the best...is that right?

My theory is that it was simple...... Death on 29th April.....body removed and instructions issued. 

3rd may....Kate screams "absduction"  jane tanner says she saw a man going towards the beach. The pj seize all the cctv on beach route.
Abductor seen on cctv, Everyone invades morrocco.....job done....

But it went wrong.......The smiths turned up and saw gerry.  Then jane tanner tried to point everyone in the opposite direction and it all started to go mad....it then became complicated because they were trying to cover up for the unexpected and unwanted smith sighting.....

The smiths changed everything.....  an occams razor became death in paradise/........Agatha christie novel...etc.........it was never meant to be that complicated....Plan A was very straightforward.........Ill say it again....the smiths changed everything.  Plan B was the complcated one because they were firefighting.....
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Post by PeterMac 09.05.24 8:42

Interesting theory, but are you not adding things to make it fit ?
That requires Russ to be away from the group for a considerable time, and then in a car, lurking. 
Car or a taxi ?
Is there evidence that Russ hired a car ?
If not we have to add a taxi driver who did not come forward when one man handed a small girl to another man, and then drove them 300 metres back to  . . .well where ?   
Apartments, so they could dump the child and go back to the Tapas ready in time for the Call Out at 2200.
And in what time frame ?   Not sure there is enough time to cram all that in.
And Praia da Luz to Morocco is a LONG sea voyage, not a short trip across the straits. 350nm , so a couple of days on the North Atlantic.

Sorry, but I cant make it work
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Post by Silentscope 09.05.24 9:49

There are some other possibilities.

The Smiths did see ‘Smithman’ (who could have been anybody.)
The Smiths really saw this person but earlier than 22:00.

Either:
The Alarm was truly raised at 22:00 and Gerry was at the Tapas Table.
The Smiths were got at and made to change their earlier time to 22:00, adding the desired description issued to them by Team McCann.
Or the Alarm was actually raised earlier around 21:30, but Reported as 22:00 in order to cover Gerry’s movements between those times.

Which gives ‘Smithman’ 15 minutes one way and 15 minutes back to 5A,
an easy jog, get changed and alter his appearance.

To where and what for is another Question.

Possibilities:
1. Dump the body in the Water.
2. Hide it on Church grounds where no one would think to search.
Possibly to be picked up by somebody. Seddon was first choice,
but he was not available.
3. Place it in a Freezer by another known Associate.

If ‘Smithman’ was Gerry at all…
‘Not proven’ ? (under Scottish Law)
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Post by Paddingtom 09.05.24 12:09

PeterMac wrote:Interesting theory, but are you not adding things to make it fit ?
That requires Russ to be away from the group for a considerable time, and then in a car, lurking. 
Car or a taxi ?
Is there evidence that Russ hired a car ?
If not we have to add a taxi driver who did not come forward when one man handed a small girl to another man, and then drove them 300 metres back to  . . .well where ?   
Apartments, so they could dump the child and go back to the Tapas ready in time for the Call Out at 2200.
And in what time frame ?   Not sure there is enough time to cram all that in.
And Praia da Luz to Morocco is a LONG sea voyage, not a short trip across the straits. 350nm , so a couple of days on the North Atlantic.

Sorry, but I cant make it work
Hi Petermac

Yes of course Im adding things to make it work.....isnt that what everyone does when faced with an odd situation?  Ive only recently become interested in all this and it was from watching Rich Halls vids.  He convinced me that it happened on 29th April so the body would be long gone by 3rd may and the brit big wigs would be involved. already

What I did not find persuasive was his dismissal of Smithman......I found it genuine.   It now seems to me that this standpoint puts me in a fairly unique position.   People either believe everything happened on 3rd May and the smiths observed gerry carrying maddie.   or they believe it happened much earlier in the week and the smith sighting was rubbish.......so I searched long and hard for an explanation to my belief of  29th april and a genuine smith sighting/   unable to find one, I had to find an explanation that fitted for my own satisfaction. and the CCTV scenario does it for me.

Russ might have had nothing to do with the staging of an adduction for cctv.  Im just suggesting he might have ben a passenger in the car ready to comfort ella should she need it......the time line they drew up did have russ missing from 9.30 till tenish.    but that doeant prove he was involved...he could have been eagerly waiting for the return of his daughter at the resort.

If you accept the 29th scenarion, you have to believe that the brit bigwigs were involved well before 3rd may....what Im suggesting is that someone, maybe an existing resident of PDL of which it woulsd seem many were now involved, used their personal car to meet gerry and ella and return them to the resort.  with or without Russ as a passenger....it makes no difference to the basic plan.

As for Morrocco, I jsust came outr with that as an option to shift the focus away from PDL......perhaps they were planning to suggest the speedboat would take them to a private yaght???/....or perhaps they were going to suggest Spain?.....I really dont know or particularly care......my scenario relies on an abductor being seen on cctv heading towards the beach.....I am more than happy for you to come up your own ideas for what the significance of the beach was....

Hi Silentscope.

My theory relies on maddie having been moved away days before.  The only thing that had to be achieved on 3rd was that Gerry had to carry Ella towards the beach and been seen on CCTV. then meet up with a waiting car to take them back to the resort so he could get changed and join the rest of them.....

Lets be honest, I dont think we can worry too much about timings being a few minutes out, we know they all covered for each other....they would swear blind that everyone was at a certain place at a certain time.....

I have to admit that I am very frustrated with myself that I dont seem to be able to communicate my theory properly.    I suppose you could liken it to the dreadful case of Little James Bulger which Im sure most of us remember.  :

1. Mum cries "Abduction"
2. Police seize shopping centre cctv
3. Abductors on cctv with little James
4. Police follow trail

Sadly we all know the awful events that followed....

My theory is very similar 

Original Plan A:

1. gerry carries Ella towards beach past cctv
2. Kate cries "Abduction"
3. Jane says "he went towards the beach"
4. Police seize beach route CCTV
5. Abductor on cctv with small girl
6. Police follow trail

But, what actually happened was

1. Gerry carries Ella towards beach past cctv
2. Gerry is seen by the smiths
3. Kate cries "abduction"

4. Jane sayd "he went in the opposite direction to the beach"
5.Police seize cctv on route away fron the beach
6. No abductor on cctv
7, Police havent got a trail to follow so go through their normal crime investigation procedures which ultimately means getting hold of the beach cctv, but too late...its been overwritten
8, mccanns heave sigh of relief.

Hopefuly Im at last making myself a bit clearer.....
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Post by Silentscope 09.05.24 12:40

The only thing about the Smith's sighting that makes perfect sense is that they all said NOTHING up until Murat was made an Arguido (Suspect).

Only then did it become of Importance to them, as Murat was known to the Smiths personally.

The likelyhood is that either the McCanns or Murat wanted them to get him off of the PJ's Hook.

Whoever 'Smithman' was, it could only be 100% confirmed it was NOT MURAT.
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Post by Paddingtom 09.05.24 13:13

I agree...it was not Murat.

Maybe as a resident of PDL, he had a car?... he apparently was recalled to PDL on Tuesday 1st.....?
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Post by Silentscope 09.05.24 13:27

All Vehicles related to the Case were checked over by the Dog in an undergound Car Park. Only the Renault Scenic and its Key were hit on.

None of Gerrys clothes scored, only Kates and Seans.

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Silentscope
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Smithman theory - Page 2 Empty Re: Smithman theory

Post by Paddingtom 09.05.24 14:18

Hi Silentscope,

If it was an existing resident of PDL whoese car was used, the Pj might not know about it and even if they did, there wouldnt be a problem testing it because maddie hadnt been in it.....Ella had......

Gerrys clothes would nott have been contaminated by carrying ella around on night of 3rd may.........In retrospect, what would have been really interesting would have been if his clothes were tested for traces of Ella......Not proof positive, because they were friends and he might hug her, but if her dna was in a line down his left hand side and across his left shoulder, it would be quite interesting......
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