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Madeleine McCann a Theory

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Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Guest on 29.06.13 13:20

This is not my theory, I'm not that good, but it is worth reading and quite plausable.

Theory (English)

An attempt at a reconstruction of a theoretically possible course of events, based on the evidence from the files and the rogatory interviews trying to incorporate all oddities such as the supply of an old photo for search purposes, the supply of a wrong height of the almost 4 year old, the confusion about when Maddie had played tennis, the change of routine of the Thursday at breakfast, lunch, dinner and after-dinner activities, the apparently unused bed, the moved cot, and many more :

http://unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.co.uk/p/theory-english.html

What do you think?
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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Guest on 29.06.13 13:33

Cherry Blossom wrote:This is not my theory, I'm not that good, but it is worth reading and quite plausable.

Theory (English)

An attempt at a reconstruction of a theoretically possible course of events, based on the evidence from the files and the rogatory interviews trying to incorporate all oddities such as the supply of an old photo for search purposes, the supply of a wrong height of the almost 4 year old, the confusion about when Maddie had played tennis, the change of routine of the Thursday at breakfast, lunch, dinner and after-dinner activities, the apparently unused bed, the moved cot, and many more :

http://unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.co.uk/p/theory-english.html

What do you think?

Some good posts here on this thread if anyone wants to wade through around 86 pages..........avoiding the troll posts on the way, it obviously got them rattled big grin 

https://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t2588-theory?highlight=theory
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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Guest on 29.06.13 13:44

candyfloss wrote:
Cherry Blossom wrote:This is not my theory, I'm not that good, but it is worth reading and quite plausable.

Theory (English)

An attempt at a reconstruction of a theoretically possible course of events, based on the evidence from the files and the rogatory interviews trying to incorporate all oddities such as the supply of an old photo for search purposes, the supply of a wrong height of the almost 4 year old, the confusion about when Maddie had played tennis, the change of routine of the Thursday at breakfast, lunch, dinner and after-dinner activities, the apparently unused bed, the moved cot, and many more :

http://unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.co.uk/p/theory-english.html

What do you think?

Some good posts here on this thread if anyone wants to wade through around 86 pages..........avoiding the troll posts on the way, it obviously got them rattled big grin 

https://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t2588-theory?highlight=theory

 Thanks candyfloss, I didn't know there was a thread on this theory, going to have a read through
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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Guest on 29.06.13 14:43

Oh gosh, some memories of absent (thank goodness) members on that earlier topic. I wonder whatever happened to Garth and his imaginary friend RBxHN - don't anyone bother sending out unreliable dogs to look for them though!
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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Guest on 29.06.13 16:34

Garth reminded me of a poster on Anorak - in 2007 the only active forum on the subject that I knew of - and s/he was sometimes so bad, that it became comical ...
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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Guest on 29.06.13 17:38

I think he was definitely male, apparently the son of a former lord mayor somewhere on the south coast of England.

He seems to have completely disappeared - unless he's using another name. The last time I was able to access his blog, it hadn't been updated for months.
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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by PeterMac on 29.06.13 17:48

Anorak was where I started, but I left after it became useless to try to debate, as admin / mods let through so much.

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Guest on 29.06.13 20:20

@PeterMac wrote:Anorak was where I started, but I left after it became useless to try to debate, as admin / mods let through so much.
***
True. I remember you from those days, Peter.
I must admit I was at a certain time in close contact with one of the Mods [she's been one of the most disappointing experiences in my life and I won't tell the rest ...].
Afterwards I joined, though hesitating in the beginning, 3A. Stayed until today with TMCF. Joined TCMOMM. And the rest is history ...
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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by aquila on 29.06.13 20:40

I'm reading this Theory thread (now on page 70). It began before I joined the forum. I'd just like to say that Candyfloss' moderating during this topic was absolutely outstanding after being pushed to the limit. I think the member of this forum called Me contributed some of the most brilliant posts I've seen to date. This thread was well worth a read.

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by jd on 29.06.13 20:46

@aquila wrote:I'm reading this Theory thread (now on page 70). It began before I joined the forum. I'd just like to say that Candyfloss' moderating during this topic was absolutely outstanding after being pushed to the limit. I think the member of this forum called Me contributed some of the most brilliant posts I've seen to date. This thread was well worth a read.

This worth relooking at again from the Theory thread

Wonder if the SY investigation will look at any one of these!!

EXCLUSIVE - 195 Leads revealed!!!
An independent investigation team consisting of an undisclosed number of case file analysts and interpreters, working for a pat on the back, have compiled what must surely be resembling much of the as yet undisclosed list of 195 leads painstakingly produced from a mass of evidence by the Scotland Yard investigation team.

After a careful review of all the evidence from the Portuguese police files and of course omitting spurious sightings, reports from mediums and clairvoyants, we finally came to the same conclusion as the highly paid SY team in that there is a 110% probability that Madeleine is either dead or alive, each possibility ranging around the 50% marker. We can also confirm that the theory of the parents' involvement is as much a conspiracy theory as the following list. We are convinced that the person who took Madeleine from the apartment, as seen by an Irish family of 7, is a criminal and should be treated as such. ASAP!

We therefore demand that the Portuguese plods pick up the investigation again where they dropped it in 2008 and start to investigate each of the 195 leads as regards to their possible significance. Or else campaigns will be started to urge people to refrain from ever listening to Fado again.


DOGS

1 cadaver dog alerting behind sofa
2 blood dog alerting behind sofa
3 matter found behind sofa containing DNA
4 DNA re 3 All five markers found are 100% compatible with Madeleine's DNA profile
5 cadaver dog alerting to hired car
6 blood dog alerting to hired car
7 matter found in hired car containing DNA
8 DNA re 7 Fifteen of the markers are 100% compatible with Madeleine's DNA profile
9 cadaver dog alerting in parent's bedroom near wardrobe
10 cadaver dog alerting in flowerbed
11 cadaver dog alerting at carkey
12 cadaver dog alerting at white top belonging to mother
13 cadaver dog alerting at checkered trousers of mother
14 cadaver dog alerting at red t-shirt with planes motive
15 cadaver dog alerting at cuddle cat
16 blood dog alerting to car key
17 neither cadaver dog nor blood dog alerting at ANY other apartment or car

BREAK-IN





18 The shutters were not "jemmied" or forced open, as claimed by the parents
19 No signs of forced entry anywhere else in the apartment
20 No physical evidence of anyone having entered or left via the window
21 No lichen disturbance on the window sill
22 No fibres
23 No finger prints of an abductor on either window
24 No footprints on the bed
25 Only finger prints on the window are those of Kate
26 Changing statements as to the state of the curtains - opened/closed
27 Only a minute "window of opportunity" between Gerry seeing the shutter still closed and Jane spotting the abductor. A couple of minutes for opening the shutters, window and curtain, taking Madeleine, leaving the apartment, crossing the carpark and walking towards the street where he was seen.
28 Gerry changed his statement re point of entry at 21:04 from front door to patio door
29 Gerry claims Kate entered 5A through front door with key, Kate says patio door
30 Gerry changes his statement from Matt having seen closed shutters to Matt being unsure about the state of the shutters

SMITH SIGHTING


31 A family of 7 encounter a man carrying a child while going home from a pub at 22:00 on May 3rd.
32 The child is of Madeleine's age and height and resembles Madeleine
33 The man is of the same height, has the same hair and general appearance of Gerry McCann
34 Mr Smith is 60-80 % certain that the person they saw was Gerry McCann
35 Aoife Smith describes the pants of the man as having buttons as ornaments
36 Gerry McCann is photographed once as owning such pants
37 The time of the encounter is the exact same time as the alleged detection of the disappearance although latter is not corroborated by independent witnesses
38 The sighting - although reported once in an irish paper - is never picked up by british media or the McCanns although it would have been the best confirmation for an abduction.
39 Only two years later the Smith sighting becomes part of their "documentary" although the key points get changed to fit the Tanner sighting
40 Pressure put on the PJ to highlight the Tanner sighting came at exactly the same time as the Smith family were being brought back to Portugal to go over the sighting in more detail
41 The sighting was in a different part of town from the Tanner sighting
42 The carrying style was completely different to that of the Tanner sighting
43 The man was heading in a completely different direction from the Tanner sighting
44 There was a time difference of 45 minutes between both sightings
45 Goncalo Amaral was removed from the case just when he tried to get the Smiths to Portugal again
46 Brian Kennedy contacted the Smiths to get them to take part in creating a photofit.
47 No innocent person ever came forward regarding the sighting
48 The child was carried without a blanket despite the cold night

JANE TANNER SIGHTING

49 Regarding the sighting by Jane Tanner of the abductor none of the scent tracking dogs followed the trail indicated by Jane, but different routes
50 Jeremy Wilkins (independent witness) failed to spot the abductor, despite being only yards away, while chatting to Gerry
51 Jeremy Wilkins (independent witness) failed to see Jane Tanner walking by, despite being on the same narrow sidewalk at the same time
52 Gerry McCann failed to spot the abductor, despite being only yards away, while chatting to Jeremy
53 Gerry contradicted Jeremy by stating that their chat was on the opposite side of and about 30 yards down the road from that as described, and drawn on a map, by Mr Wilkins
54 Gerry also contradicted Tanner, by stating that his chat with Jeremy was on the opposite side of and about 30 yards down the road from that mentioned by Jane
55 Jane failed to spot the open window and shutters at Madeleine's bedroom while walking to her apartment at ~21.15
56 Jane failed to spot the open window and shutters at Madeleine's bedroom while walking from her apartment at ~21.20
57 Jane never bumped into Jeremy Wilkins (who had walked back to his apartment after the chat with Gerry) while walking back from her apartment at ~21.20
58 Russell O'Brien failed to spot the open window and shutters at Madeleine's bedroom while walking to his apartment at ~21.30
59 Matthew Oldfield failed to spot the open window and shutters at Madeleine's bedroom while walking to his apartment, which was right next door, at ~21.30
60 Matthew failed to spot the open window and shutters at Madeleine's bedroom while walking back from his apartment back to check on the McCann children
61 Matthew failed to spot the open window and shutters while checking on Madeleine and the twins
62 Jane failed to spot the open window and shutters at Madeleine's bedroom while walking to her apartment at ~21.45
63 Russell failed to spot the open window and shutters at Madeleine's bedroom while walking back from his apartment at ~21.50
64 Tanner's description of the abductor has changed several times
65 Tanner's description of the pyjama's worn by the child has improved with time
66 Gerry did not hear the raising of the shutters by the abductor while standing in the street with Wilkins
67 Jeremy Wilkins did not hear the raising of the shutters by the abductor while standing in the street with Gerry
68 The abductor failed to hear either Tanner, Gerry or Wilkins, and continued on the path that would put him in the full vision of all three
69 If the abductor had lifted Madeleine out of the bed, then he would be carrying her with her head to his right hand side, not on the left as in Tanner's claimed sighting
70 Although Gerry checked all rooms in the apartment during his check he did not spot the hiding abductor
71 The abductor did not raise the shutters while Gerry was inside the apartment
72 Jane was not only not seen by Gerry and Jeremy but also not heard although she was wearing flip-flops
73 Nobody ever mentioned the cars in the road but independent witnesses spoke of at least 2 cars parked close to the pavement where Gerry and Jez were standing, narrowing Jane's path so much that it was impossible she was not noticed by the two men.
74 Jane does not inform the parents of her sighting immediately. Only some of the friends
75 Although the friends know of her sighting their searches are directed in the opposite direction of where the abductor headed to.

GEORGE BROOKS SIGHTING

76 A George Brooks saw a couple at 5:55 on the morning of May 4th on his way between Lagos and Praia da Luz
77 The man was carrying a child
78 At this time the McCanns had left the apartment and were somewhere in the vicinity of Praia da Luz
79 They had left the apartment around 5:00 when the police and all search groups had left the area
80 They were never asked where exactly they had gone
81 Kate claimed in her book they "resumed" their search that early morning although they never went searching the night before
82 The night before Gerry was overheard on his mobile talking about a gang of paedophiles having abducted Madeleine
83 The next day around 9:30 Kate claimed in a conversation with Yvonne Martin, a social worker, that Madeleine had been abducted by a childless couple

LAST TIME SEEN

84 In their statements the friends of the McCanns have difficulty to pinpoint the last time they saw Madeleine
85 Dianne Webster, whose statements are the only consistent ones, states she saw Madeleine on the 2nd May for the last time.
86 Kate McCann claims in her book that the 2nd May was the last happy day as a family of four. What about the 3rd?
87 The creche sheets are a mess, partly filled out by the nannies in retrospect, partly not at all. No credible evidence for the whereabouts of Madeleine
88 There are no reports about the creche activity in Madeleine's group for the afternoon of May 3rd
89 There are strong discrepancies regarding the morning activity of sailing undertaken by the creche
90 The nanny does not remember if she accompanied 5 (without Madeleine) or 6 (with Madeleine) children to the beach that morning
91 Whereas her first recollections are vague they improve one year later when she recollects an incident on one of the boats where Madeleine was crying.
92 The nanny could only have entered a boat with Madeleine by leaving 3 remaining children alone on the beach
93 Initially some of the friends claimed that Madeleine had taken part in the children's tennis on the morning of the 3rd
94 Madeleine and Ella were allegedly sailing while their parents and friends watched unknown children playing tennis on the court
95 Kate went back to the apartment on Tuesday to fetch her camera for the tennis court photo of Madeleine but never bothered to even watch her sailing
96 Even in 2008 Rachael Oldfield still claimed that Madeleine had been at the tennis on the morning of the 3rd
97 While Jane claims to have seen Madeleine at the sailing, Kate now states in her book that Fiona was unsure wether Madeleine had been at the sailing

CHANGES IN ROUTINE


98 Changes in the holiday routine mark May 3rd as a special day
99 While the McCanns claimed they had only ever attended breakfast once on the Sunday, six employees of the Millenium restaurant stated that they had attended regularly. Did they skip breakfast only on the 3rd?
100 Lunch was usually taken in the Payne's apartment with the whole group, but not on May 3rd
101 The whole group apart from the McCanns went to the beach that afternoon - and did not see Madeleine
102 The whole group apart from the McCanns did not attend the usual children's dinner on May 3rd - and did not see Madeleine there
103 The McCanns did not take part in the get together on the children's playground on May 3rd - so Madeleine was not seen by the rest of the group
104 Russell O'Brien collected his daughter from the creche before the children's dinner - but failed to notice if Madeleine was there or not


STATEMENTS

105 Russell O'Brien was allowed to make at least 34 amendments to his original statement given to Leicestershire police
106 Russell O'Brien changed his statement regarding when and where he collected his daughter from the afternoon creche on May 3rd
107 Russell O'Brien claimed that Matthew had been ill on Saturday and had not taken part in the dinner and later changed it to Matt started feeling unwell during that dinner
108 Russell O'Brien claimed that the Paynes were the only ones to have used a baby monitor and changed this into the Paynes had used a baby-monitor
109 Russell O'Brien claimed that they only checked on their own rooms possibly listening for the other's children and changed this into OFTEN listened at other windows and made checks on some visits
110 Russell O'Brien claimed to have checked the McCann's apartment with the help of their key on the Sunday and changed it into checking via the patio doors
111 Russell O'Brien claimed to have checked the Oldfield's apartment with the help of their key on the Sunday but Matthew Oldfield claims to have been inside sick.
112 Russell O'Brien changed this statement "I believe I saw Madeleine at lunchtime" into "I saw Madeleine at lunchtime" although there was no chance to see her at lunchtime since they did not have lunch together.
113 Russell O'Brien claimed that Gerry had left the table between "twenty-one zero five to twenty-one twenty" and changed it into "Gerry was only away for a little while"
114 Matthew Oldfield described the curtains in 5A as being yellow and green when in fact they were pink/mauve
115 Matthew Oldfield described the little table with a lamp as being round when in fact it was square
116 Matthew Oldfield claimed the children's bedroom had two windows when in fact it had only one.
117 Matthew Oldfield desribed a bookshelf in 5A that he looked along during his check when in fact there was no bookshelf to look along
118 Yellow/green curtains, a lamp on a round table and a bookshelf were part of apartment 5D and not 5A
119 Matthew Oldfield initially stated that Kate and the children had been at the tennis court Thursday afternoon contradicting everybody else
120 Matthew Oldfield claimed he met the Paynes and Dianne Webster on Thursday night near the top of the road, David Payne states he met him at the pool area and Fiona Payne states she met him outside of 5A. Dianne Webster never saw him at all and thinks he was not at the restaurant when they arrived.
121 Jane Tanner claimed she had done a listening check on the Oldfield window on May 2nd although Rachael Oldfield was allegedly sick inside the apartment
122 Jane Tanner claimed that each apartment was checked every 15 minutes whereas the McCanns insist on checks every 30 minutes
123 Jane Tanner claimed that she knew Gerry had already been in the apartment when she encountered him talking to Jeremy Wilkins. How did she know that?
124 Neither Jane Tanner nor Russell O'Brien ever mentioned to portuguese police that they took a baby monitor to Portugal. Only one year later this baby monitor suddenly appeared in her rogatory statement
125 Jane Tanner never mentioned cars on the road while she saw the abductor
126 David Payne claimed that during his visit at 5A the patio door was open and he entered the apartment while Kate claims the door was closed and he remained outside


MISC.

127 Kate claimed that Madeleine slept under the covers during her last night because of the cold, Gerry claimed she slept on top of the covers because of the heat
128 The cleaner stated that there had been one cot placed in the parent's bedroom during the week, while the McCanns vehemently deny this
129 The McCanns both deleted their mobile phone history
130 Michael Wright confirmed an unpleasant smell in the hired car during the month of July
131 A police witness stated that the boot of the hired car had been left open for a number of consecutive days
132 Metodo 3 hired as their private investigators although they had no experience in missing people cases
133 The blue/black bag seen in the pictures taken during the night of May 3rd is allegedly missing when police search the villa
134 The McCanns NEVER question their friends in spite of the Gaspar statement and lots of changes in their statements
135 Gerry McCann planned special events to commemorate her disappearance months in advance
136 The FUND (a whole field to investigate - good for at least 10 leads)
147 The tacky online store
148 No physical search by Kate on the evening of May 3rd, no physical searches by both parents the following days
149 They NEVER went anywhere near a country a sighting happened, instead went to different countries to promote the SEARCH
150 The India sighting was never confirmed by police
151 In fact most sightings were never really followed up by their investigators, the media attention seemed enough
152 Shortly after Gerry McCann had visited the Netherlands a letter arrived at a dutch newpaper pinpointing Madeleine's body
153 All friends of the McCanns refused a reconstruction in Portugal
154 Gerry caught on camera laughing his head off only a few days after his daughter had been 'abducted by paedophiles' as claimed by the parents
155 Kate refused to answer 48 questions
156 Despite the possibility that Madeleine's disappearance could have been an inside job the twins were placed in the creche the next day
157 Despite the proximity of the apartment to the Tapas restaurant Kate left the twins alone to alert the friends and Gerry instead of shouting from the balcony
158 As soon as Mark Harrison organised the search with the british dogs the McCanns started trips to a triangle between Budens, Raposeira and Sagres
159 Kate checked the breathing of the twins during the night of May 3rd
160 The twins never woke up during the police search despite many people entering their bedroom
161 The only people having allegedly seen Murat around the apartment on the night of May 3rd were Fiona Payne, Russell O'Brien, Rachael Oldfield and possibly Jane Tanner
162 Nobody who knew Robert Murat saw him that night around the apartment
163 Robert Murat translated the statements of the nannies and of Dianne Webster, most crucial statements regarding the whereabouts of Madeleine on May 3rd
164 Mrs Fenn heard Madeleine crying for 1 hour and 15 minutes on May 1st
165 One child threw a tantrum on May 2nd on the playground and had to be carried home. At the same time the McCanns claim Madeleine claimed to have cried.
166 The crying stopped abruptly.
167 Kate McCann was alone in the apartment at 20:15 on May 2nd getting the children to sleep while her husband was already at the Tapas restaurant
168 Kate McCann left the restaurant 5 minutes after Gerry on May 2nd
169 Gerry uttered in a spanish interview that their persecution had been bad, but not as bad as the "night we found her"
170 Madeleine's bed, that had been made on Wednesday morning for the last time, looked very neat Thursday night
171 Although they claimed that they had no buggy for the trip to the Millenium breakfast they had buggies for the trip to the beach on Tuesday
172 Although they claimed that the trip to the beach happened on Tuesday, the creche records clearly suggest it happened on Monday
173 If there had been a 1 nanny for 3 children ratio as the McCanns claimed, why did Catriona Baker lead 5 OR 6 children alone to the beach?
174 Why had Madeleine a "sunburn" on her right arm as shown in the tennis picture?
175 Russell O'Brien claimed to have collected his daughter from the creche before 16:45 but also stated that he finished sailing at 16:30 and then went for a swim
176 Where was Russell O'Brien between 16:45 and 17:52 when he arrived at the beach restaurant Paraiso?
177 Why did he not sign his daughter out from the creche that afternoon?
178 The sailing instructors Alice and Chris were not formally interviewed but could have possibly confirmed wether Madeleine had taken part in the sailing on the morning of the 3rd
179 Gerry McCann stated that David Payne had entered their apartment to check on Maddie and the twins on the evening of May 2nd
180 The above statement was never repeated nor followed up
181 Gerry McCann was not in the apartment when Dianne Webster entered it for the first time after the abduction possibly at the time of the Smith sighting
182 Kate McCann claims in her book that Gerry was searching together with David Payne at that time but their witness statements say otherwise
183 The time of the first alarm given by Kate was never confirmed by independent witnesses. Statements suggest the alarm had been raised around 21:45
184 There was a Junior Group (6-10 year olds) in the same room above the reception that never got a mention
185 This explains the statement by one nanny that Madeleine had mainly played with the older children.
186 The nannies were transfered to Greece on May 13th and were no longer available to the police
187 One nanny was invited by the McCanns into their home before the rogatory interviews
188 The same nanny got a new job afterwards and her whereabouts were withheld on the request of the McCanns according to the media
189 Research shows that this nanny is now working for a multimillionaire in Manhattan
190 The McCanns used the media to introduce changes in their story
191 e.g. the additional baby monitor of Jane Tanner entered the story through a briefing by Gerry McCann given David James Smith of The Times
192 Charlotte Pennington allegedly remembered Robert Murat being in the vicinity of 5A after a visit by Metodo3 7 months after the disappearance
193 Two other witnesses remember Murat as well after 7 months
194 Brian Kennedy and Antonio Jimenez from Metodo 3 visited the PJ in November 2007 with alleged evidence incriminating Robert Murat and two other people
195 Antonio Jimenez was later jailed for stealing drugs from a police storage

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Miraflores on 30.06.13 7:17

@PeterMac wrote:Anorak was where I started, but I left after it became useless to try to debate, as admin / mods let through so much.

 There was a different Mod, who I think was ill. She was eventually relieved of her duties.
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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by suzyjohnson on 30.06.13 12:12

I thought this article was really interesting with with many good insights but then at the same time a few mistakes too.

http://unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.co.uk/p/theory-english.html

These are my comments
 
If an accident happened on Wed 2nd, then it is equally possible MM fell off the sofa whilst watching both parents heading off to the Tapas, why would there be any need to try and cover up an accident if KM was actually present at the time?  

Perhaps MM was in need of medical attention after an accident on Wed night, but GM and KM were drunk? Could this be the reason KM slept in the children's room? 

I think it's a very good point that the group did not know whether Mrs Fenn was home on Wed night and therefore what she told police.

I agree that Diane Webster was never part of the cover up. It's interesting that the trip to the Paraiso could have been arranged to avoid making her suspicious. Also, interesting possibilities as to how the group could have made it appear that MM was present in various places on the Thurs.

I agree that (if a cover up happened) that they would need as many witnesses as possible at the Tapas on Thurs night, waiters and Diane Webster. Yet they weren't the only witnesses, the Tapas group were all to be witnesses for each other, from the viewpoint of the police / public, and also, Diane wouldn't be considered any more independent than any of them.

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Guest on 30.06.13 13:41

suzyjohnson, IF Madeleine had and accident on May 2, whilst her parents were away [she was e.g. looking for them at the window and fell off the sofa] AND IF her parents came back drunk that night, they might have NOT noticed and only found her [much] later. Something extremely difficult to explain not only to the police, but also to their own parents.
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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by bobbin on 30.06.13 14:25

Châtelaine wrote:suzyjohnson,  IF Madeleine had and accident on May 2, whilst her parents were away [she was e.g. looking for them at the window and fell off the sofa] AND IF her parents came back drunk that night, they might have NOT noticed and only found her [much] later. Something extremely difficult to explain not only to the police, but also to their own parents.
They could easily have said they had looked in, and all was well.
It was dark, they didn't want to disturb the children, they thought the 'bedding' was 'Maddie', the little breathing sounds (from the twins) they thought were all of them.
It's true, any normal parent will stand over a child and check breathing etc. but then any normal parent would not even dream of going out boozing, leaving children to choke, or leaving the doors open in the first place.
They could even have claimed that all was well when the parents went to sleep, that Maddie must have sleep-walked whilst the parents were fast asleep and fallen, parents not hearing it above Gerry's snoring etc.
They could have just shown it as a terrible holiday tragedy. After all Maddie did have a tendency apparently to wander during the night, vis, the star chart on the fridge in UK. They could easily have blamed it on that.
The fact that they did not want the body (see Eddie and Keela) to be autopsied is the clincher AIMO of course.

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by PeterMac on 30.06.13 14:48

Chateleine
You are getting very close to my favourite hypothesis.

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Guest on 30.06.13 14:48

Oh, I agree Bobbin. There must have been a very serious reason for the body to disappear and avoid a Post-Mortem. Gross neglect, sedation, abuse resulting in accidental death, or even murder. AMIO, of course.
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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Guest on 30.06.13 14:51

@PeterMac wrote:Chateleine
You are getting very close to my favourite hypothesis.
***
Hi Peter, I didn't see this whilst I was reacting to Bobbin.
I am still hopeful, that this case is an 'innocent" one, only including stupidity, selfishness and misplaced pride, aka "keeping-up appearances".
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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Johanna Renstein on 30.06.13 20:17

Thanks to Cherry Blossom for bringing my theory on this discussion forum.

It has evolved over the years from many discussions and digging into the case files. It is still of course not set in stone and there are still areas I am still not certain about.

One of those is the question whether Kate was present in the apartment or they came back late May 2nd to both find her dead behind the sofa. The reason I favour the first version is the added narrative by Jane Tanner about a child who threw a tantrum on Wednesday at the playground, had to be carried to the apartment where she kept on crying until she suddenly "crashed".

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JANE_TANNER_RIGATORY.htm search for "crashed"

Of course she was talking about her daughter but why would she offer this tale during her rogatory interview? Only if there had been such an incident and they feared that somebody had overheard them. Not only Mrs Fenn but also the tenants above Mrs. Fenn who arrived from England that day. Combine this with the tale about Kate carrying Madeleine at some stage (I know she said Thursday) and it might be an effort to explain a thrown tantrum by Madeleine with a consecutive carrying of Madeleine to 3A where the screaming continued until she suddenly "crashed".

One other point is the fact that Gerry was playing tennis during this assumed incident and returned to the apartment after 7:30 pm only to go out again shortly after 8:00 pm together with Russell to the Tapas while Kate was still alone with the children getting them to sleep.

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JEREMY-WILKINS.htm

I also think that the relationship between Kate and Gerry was one in which Kate was often scared of her husband and to admit to him that she had hit out at Madeleine while she was on the sofa and that she had subsequently died through the fall might have been too frightening. She might have chosen to blend out the incident and give Gerry a 5 minute headstart when they left the Tapas to get him to find her. It would have been an accident due to negligence and the blame would have been on both instead of her alone.

The 5 minute headstart is documented in the files and the Tanner rogatory about the tantrum supports this theory but I know it is a huge leap to assume Kate went to the Tapas after her daughter had died. It depends how big her fear was of Gerry finding out what had happened.

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by suzyjohnson on 30.06.13 20:46

@bobbin wrote:
Châtelaine wrote:suzyjohnson,  IF Madeleine had and accident on May 2, whilst her parents were away [she was e.g. looking for them at the window and fell off the sofa] AND IF her parents came back drunk that night, they might have NOT noticed and only found her [much] later. Something extremely difficult to explain not only to the police, but also to their own parents.

The fact that they did not want the body to be autopsied is the clincher AIMO of course.

 Chatelaine, that's a good point

Bobbin, Perhaps, as doctors, they knew that a post mortem would show exactly what time an accident had occurred?

Johanna, it was interesting to read your article. Perhaps you are right that JT related the tantrum story in order to explain away what Mrs Fenn would say to police, but perhaps JT was trying to cover up any crying from children who had been left alone every evening (to try and minimise the trouble they were in) and not necessarily at the exact moment of a fatal accident?

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by russiandoll on 01.07.13 13:40

Am moving this from a new topic I opened this morning, unaware until fellow members kindly pointed out this section devoted to A THEORY.
  Posted after reminiscing about my own checking routine when mine were toddlers, have to admit it was more to do about ensuring that they were neither too cold nor too hot, and it got me thinking about Kate's 5 layers and those cold PdL nights.
 Then I thought hey they spoke volumes about mealtime checks but not once have I heard or read that they checked before they went to bed themselves. I might be wrong here and people might think it has not been mentioned because it is a given.
 Well Kate mentioned every bit of detail about routines on that break so I am rather surprised that the last check and maybe light goodnight kiss so as not to wake Maddie was not mentioned; she could have said we could not kiss the twins without slipping a disc, as would have been the case with those cots.
I simply thought that a last check to ensure little ones were covered would be the obvious thing to do, but then it should have been obvious that leaving the kids was a big no-no.
 If they were lacking in common sense to the extent they left the children as claimed, they might well have gone straight to bed each evening.
 Were they ever asked if they checked last thing?

Anyway, here is what I rambled on about earlier.....






This is being typed seconds after a thought entered my mind, so apologies if it appears somewhat " stream of consciousness" !

     The word " check" appeared in my head. Then I thought about how I have always suspected that the truth of what happened lies in those early witness statements,  buried beneath all the smoke and mirrors of the aftermath.

 Then I thought...check the statements, again. Then I thought check the checking.

 Is there any mention anywhere by either McCann parent, that as well as checking the children during dinner, they CHECKED THE CHILDREN before going to bed?
 I know that on 3rd there is a ref to Gerry taking a look in the children's room before they left, some time after stories and settling down time. I think Kate said this, then they left 5a for their usual tapas dinner.
-
 At any time does either McCann speak of RETURNING FROM DINNER and LOOKING IN ON THE CHILDREN before they turned in for the night?
 I can't recall reading or hearing any reference to this. I would have thought it is what most parents of toddlers do at home, and certainly on holiday I would have thought that as the McCanns were nothing if not creatures of routine, especially Kate, this pre- bed last look- in, leading if slightly tipsy to more than one sentimental loving look and proud parent moment, would have been part of the routine.

 If not, if forgotten even on one evening due to drink, distraction, desire for one another... there could have been an accident in the children's room not discovered until the following morning. How much the twins would have been aware of is a big question, depending on where an unconscious or fatally injured Maddie was in that room. Given their age, it is probable they would not have been aware of what was going on.

 The twins would not have seen their sister the next morning had she gone to the lounge area while her parents were out, climbed on the sofa and fallen behind it. The parents would have searched frantically for a missing Maddie, having found her gone in the morning, just as Kate said she did at 10 pm on the 3rd, looking even in impossible places, then finding her behind the sofa.

 Why did Kate want it on record I have always wondered, that she slept in the children's room one night, the Wednesday iirc?  Had she gone to bed angry with Gerry and not realised that her child was not in her bed? Was this why Maddie had to be present the next morning, hence the breakfast time why didn't you come when we were crying?

 The question is, if this was the scenario, what evening did this undiscovered-for- hours accident happen?
 Kate is notoriously silent about Monday 30th April and Wednesday 2nd May is also a day they seem to want to wipe from history.
 Could the accident have happened the very first evening, Sunday 29th, when there was panic perhaps from a little girl who did not want to be left alone , who was not told that she would be left alone and woke up scared? Found 30th... hence silence over this day. Is the reason 2nd is almost erased from the account because this was the day when the child was removed, the planning having taken place 30th and 1st?
 Or did Kate truly sleep in the child's room 2nd, unaware that her eldest child was lying not sound asleep and safe in her bed, but dead or dying but not beyond help, had she been found immediately........... the couple aware of the tragedy of that minor tiff as Kate called it [ I have never heard any reference to it by Gerry, too guilty to mention it because of its tragic consequences? ]
 Consider for a minute......you go back to your apartment, so angry with your partner that you do not want to share a bed....[ we have all been there I would wager ]... you go straight to bed in the kids' room, walking right past an empty bed, wake up the next morning to find someone is not where she should be, she has not climbed into bed with your partner next door..........then after both frantically searching you discover her and to make the tragedy worse, realise  by the nature of her injuries that if you had ONLY CHECKED THE CHILDREN BEFORE GOING TO SLEEP the tragedy might not have happened, there might have been a chance of  treatment and recovery.

and it all happened because the pair of you stupidly and selfishly left your children unsupervised while you went out, putting your own desires before their welfare.
 added to which neither your partner , nor you who followed him into your apartment soon afterwards, took 30 seconds to look into a bedroom and at all your sleeping children.
 Tragic indeed.
 But reverting to type........you then both decided to put self -interest before what was right and proper.

 That extent of moral cowardice is truly tragic also.

 Apologies again for the way the above has been written, straight from my head on to the page.

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Johanna Renstein on 01.07.13 17:09

As I have said I am torn between the two possibilities of an accident during dinner on May 2nd or an "accident" before dinner while Kate was present on May 2nd.

But what I am almost sure of is the date - May 2nd. I narrowed it down from both ends and am pretty convinced now that that was the night she died.

For one there were too many differences in the course of daily events between the 3rd and the other holidays.

Then we have the last TRUE sighting of Madeleine by a person close enough to recognise her in a bulk of little pretty girls in pink - Dianne Webster - during the children's dinner on May 2nd. The routine had been deliberately changed to keep Dianne from having to notice Madeleine.

There is also not enough time for cadaver odour to have developed in 3 different areas - specially in the parent's bedroom - for her death having happened during dinner on May 3rd.

On the other hand it was a very high risk operation to keep Madeleine even for one day away from the creche without staff really noticing her absence. It would never have worked for more than one day and I certainly don't believe in the substitute tales. Everything was concentrated on muddying the waters relating to her whereabouts on May 3rd - the sailing. Plan B had been to claim she had taken part in the tennis lesson instead of the sailing should her absence had been noticed.

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by russiandoll on 01.07.13 18:27

Hi Johanna,
                  We follow each other on twitter and I just tweeted you re this.
 I am a bit puzzled about the ability of DW to pick out Maddie from a bunch of similar looking similar aged girls......so many blonde and pretty, were they the words someone used?

I will double-check, but I recall in a statement that she said she had rarely seen Maddie before the holiday, I would like to know when the last time was. She travelled with the McCanns iirc, so would have seen her then. Daytimes Maddie was in crèche and didn't the McCanns lunch alone most days? She would only have seen her at kids' tea, was this enough for her to pick her out from a group?  Maybe it was.

 Am intrigued still by the silence surrounding April 30th. I believe the mobile phone use also gives a clue if not to what happened....to when it  happened.

 What is your opinion on the anomalies in the crèche records? I agree it would not be difficult to sign in a non- attending child, but it is Gerry's seeming forging of signatures and the strange entries for Ella O Brien which I find interesting.

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by Johanna Renstein on 01.07.13 21:33

The group did have lunch together every day except the Thursday May 3rd, so Dianne would have been used to Madeleine after almost a week. They were also together every Day at the children's dinner and afterwards in the playarea, of course again except on the 3rd.

The creche records were a great mess and were later brushed up a bit (filling out missing signatures) by staff. The important bit about the records imo is the fact that they were the only reference when the first interviews with Cat Baker and Sean and Amelie's nanny were conducted. All they did was cite the creche records which sat a status quo that was difficult to change later. Regarding the entry for Ella O'Brian on May 3rd I wrote some blogentry about how I thought she was used to cover the afternoon session for Maddie.

http://unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.de/2012/11/russell-oliar-2.html

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Ah say ah say boy you... Done Good

Post by The Rooster on 01.07.13 21:50

May I say congratulations on the most thoroughly researched and most comprehensive piece I've read since the little girl vanished and I've read most (with the exception of the mothers book - that would be too toxic for an old bird like me). 

I especially like the efforts you went to to help your readers with their questions. Well done I'm sure this piece will help a lot.

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Re: Madeleine McCann a Theory

Post by russiandoll on 01.07.13 22:02

Johanna....... I will read the part of your blog relating to Ella OB with great interest, I wrote a couple of posts on the Russell O Brien topic a while ago, referring to his movements afternoon 3rd, the way Ella was not taken until later to the beach, NEEDED AT CRECHE I believe that afternoon.
 I need to check on the lunches....there seem to be conflicting statements from the group, I was sure I read more than one statement re the McCanns mainly having lunch in 5a. If you have researched this as thoroughly as you seem to have done, it will be no doubt my mistake re the McCann lunches !
 I agree that DW was out of the loop and it seems clear that up to a point she was the only tapas member being truthful.
 Would still like to hear your thoughts re what might have gone on 30th April, the couple's statements and the book avoid this day like the plague.


 this from McCann Files


12.30 KM & GM - Children collected from creche and have lunch in their own apartment. After lunch children spend time around pool with parents for about 45 minutes before returning to creche.


DW - States the only day she ate lunch in the apartment was on Wednesday because it was raining.

 and this from Jane Tanner's rogatory:

 I think it’s half twelve you have to pick them up and had lunch. I don’t know where we had lunch but we often tended to have lunch in err Dave and Fi’s room, again because it was a bigger room and we just tended to congregate there.”
4078    “Did everybody do that?”
Reply    “They did but apart from Kate and Gerry often had it in their own, their own apartment, err I don’t know whether they ever came, I don’t think they ever, I think they tended to have lunch, lunch in their own apartment
but their, Sean and Amelie tended to go back to the kids club in the afternoon whereas err the rest of us, because they were younger they didn’t, so.”

and from Russell O Brien's rogatory ;

 
I recall going for a sailing lesson on Tuesday and Jane went to play tennis, we collected the kids as usual around lunchtime, Kate and Gerry had lunch in their apartment as they did on most days. 

  
the above brief notes are based on witness statements........I am very confused about how well DW knew Maddie, I must do a lot more reading !

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