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What is your theory on the disappearance of Madeleine McCann?

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Post by Tony Bennett on 25.03.19 23:10

This story - based on a sort of review of the Netfix documentary - appeared today in the Australian media.

It lists seven suggested theories about what happened to Madeleine McCann, including 'death by accident', the PJ/Goncalo Amaral theory.

I will put up a poll, listing the seven options (in the same order as in this Australian article).

I will split the 'Death by Accident' theory into two by asking: 'On 3 May, or BEFORE 3 May'.

I will add just two other options:

9. Died, but not as the result of an accident

and

10. Some other theory.

=================================================


https://www.mamamia.com.au/madeleine-mccann-theories-2/ 

The 7 most compelling theories about what happened to Madeleine McCann 

Keryn Donnelly, March 25, 2019 

Madeleine McCann was just three years old when she disappeared in 2007.

The toddler was holidaying with her family in Portugal when she went missing, while her parents were dining at a nearby restaurant.

There has never been a credible sighting of her since. 

At around 10.00pm on May 3, 2007, British doctor and mum-of-three Kate McCann left a local tapas bar and walked the 83 metres back to her holiday apartment to check on her sleeping children. 

Kate, her husband Gerry, their three-year-old daughter Madeleine, and their two-year-old twins Sean and Amelia, had travelled to the area from Leicester, England, for a family holiday. 

When Kate arrived at apartment 5A she immediately felt that something wasn’t right. 

The door to the children’s room was further open than she had left it. When she looked in the room she saw Madeleine’s bed was empty. A gust of wind then blew into the room, revealing the open window and window shutters on the wall opposite Maddie’s bed. 

Kate ran back to the tapas bar to where Gerry was dining with the seven friends they had travelled with, the group that would later become known as the Tapas 7. 

She screamed: “They’ve taken her”. 

The group quickly began searching the apartment and the surrounding area but there was no sign of Maddie. The McCanns then reported the toddler as missing. 

In the following days, Portuguese, British and international press flocked to the seaside village. The story of the disappearance of a blonde-haired toddler in what was considered to be a safe family holiday hot spot was splashed across newspapers around the globe. It became one of the most sensationalised stories of the 21st century. 

For the past 11 years Portuguese police, Scotland Yard, and Maddie’s parents have worked tirelessly trying to figure out what happened to the young girl. But so far, they have no answers. 

Here are all the theories about what happened to Madeleine McCann: 

1  The sex trafficking theory 

One of the most prominent theories is that Madeleine was snatched by a sex trafficking network. 

The Netflix documentary, The Disappearance of Madeleine McCann, looked at this theory in depth. It’s believed that Madeleine, a young white girl from a wealthy family, would have been a valuable target for child sex traffickers. 

This theory would explain why Madeleine’s body has never been found and why there have been various unconfirmed sightings of her around the world. 

2  The Portuguese predator theory 

Some investigators believe Maddie could have been the target of a lone sexual predator who was operating in the area at the time. 

As covered in the documentary, the police looked into a man who was wanted in connection to the sexual assaults of five young girls in Portuguese holiday resorts. 

Investigators described the man as a "lone wolf" who attacked the girls while they were sleeping in their beds at night. Two of these attacks actually occurred in Praia Da Luz. 

This particular lone wolf was one of many operating in the area at the time of Maddie's disappearance. 

"One startling element is the sheer number of sexual predators in the area at the time," author Anthony Summers explains in the documentary. 

3  Death by accident theory 

Another theory explored in the documentary is that the McCanns could have accidentally killed Madeleine. 

As the documentary lays out, the Portuguese police investigated the theory the couple might have killed the toddler with an overdose of Calpol, a sleeping aid. 

The Disappearance of Madeleine McCann also looks at how sniffer dogs used in the case allegedly detected the scent of blood, and a human body, in the McCann's apartment and in their hire car. 

People who believe this theory also point to the fact Kate McCann refused to answer 48 questions during her interview with the Portuguese police. 

4  The inside job theory 

After watching the documentary, many people have suggested that all three of the McCann children could have been drugged, while they were playing at the kids' club earlier in the day. 

Apparently Madeleine was very sleepy when she returned to the holiday apartment and went straight to bed. Her younger siblings, Amelia and Sean, also didn't wake throughout the night as people came and went from their bedroom. 

The theory is that someone drugged the children to make it easier for them to snatch Madeleine undetected while the parents were at dinner.

5   The childless couple theory 

Another theory is that a childless couple stole Madeleine to raise as their own. 

People who believe this theory think the couple either broke into the apartment themselves to abduct Madeleine, or arranged for someone else to take her and bring her to them. 

The documentary speaks to a man who claims a woman approached him in Barcelona the night Maddie disappeared. The man says the woman spoke English, with possibly an Australian accent, and asked him, "Do you have the girl? Do you have my new daughter for me?"

When it became obvious to her that he had no idea what she was talking about, she quickly walked away. 

6  The tourism theory


Another theory is that something nefarious happened to Madeleine, but the Portuguese police tried to pin it on the McCanns because they didn't want tourism to suffer. 

This theory comes from Brian Kennedy, the wealthy Scottish businessman who funded some of the search for Madeleine. Kennedy talks about this theory in The Disappearance of Madeleine McCann. 

"You could understand how the mood of public opinion would go from sympathy to vilification," Kennedy says in the documentary. 

"Let's find somebody to blame for this that doesn't make us look bad. I think it's all tied into tourism, industry and tourism being down and the country's GDP. 

"It's much easier to say: 'Aha, we've found some idea later that the parents could be involved in this'." 

7  The wandered off theory 

Possibly the saddest of all theories is that little Madeleine McCann woke in the middle of the night, wandered off in search of her parents, and drowned in the nearby ocean or was hit by a car. 

As the documentary explains the sliding door to the apartment was unlocked and the apartment was close to the road and within walking distance to the beach.

You can watch all eight episodes of The Disappearance of Madeleine McCann on Netflix now.

____________________

Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"

Amelie Mcann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".  

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Post by Tony Bennett on 26.03.19 16:30

There have been 63 votes already on this poll - and the early results are interesting.

PLEASE VOTE if you haven't already

____________________

Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"

Amelie Mcann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".  

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Post by Rachel007 on 26.03.19 16:35

I voted nr 9. My belief is either that or nr 4. Whatever it was, it must have happened before May 3d. 
An accident could have been handled in another way, without all the strange things that have surrounded this case for years. And IF it was an accident, I doubt it had anything to do with neglect. Something more sinister was in that case the cause for something to have happened...which is the reason why I question an accident to begin with. Unless we believe the theory that she came to harm whilst being left alone (neglect), we are left with intentions to hurt Madeleine. Even if her death was unwanted and unintended, the first action that led to it was intended by the person who is responsible for her death.
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Post by Tony Bennett on 26.03.19 22:13

@Rachel007 wrote:I voted nr 9. My belief is either that or nr 4. Whatever it was, it must have happened before May 3d. 
An accident could have been handled in another way, without all the strange things that have surrounded this case for years. And IF it was an accident, I doubt it had anything to do with neglect. Something more sinister was in that case the cause for something to have happened...which is the reason why I question an accident to begin with. Unless we believe the theory that she came to harm whilst being left alone (neglect), we are left with intentions to hurt Madeleine. Even if her death was unwanted and unintended, the first action that led to it was intended by the person who is responsible for her death.

I think that is a perceptive post. I'm surprised you've only got three 'Likes' so far.

A more detailed analysis of why it would be impossible for an abduction hoax to have been perpetrated so soon after Madeleine died from an accident at about 6pm or later on 3 May 2007 is here:

https://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t13044-madeleine-mccann-could-not-have-died-from-an-accident-nor-from-anything-else-after-5-30pm-on-thursday-3-may-2007

THANKS to all the 98 members who have voted in the poll so far...

PLEASE VOTE if you've not already done so

____________________

Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"

Amelie Mcann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".  

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Post by Rachel007 on 27.03.19 10:12

Thankyou.

Some poster(s) in that thread raise the possibility that the 
„Tapasfriends“ might have believed that Madeleine actually was abducted, meaning that whatever happened was and still is the McCann couple‘s secret. I don‘t believe that for a second. Such a scenario would need the neglect to have been a fact. Otherwise the abductor would not have had a chance. His or her opportunity existed ONLY in the period between checks. No way the Tapasfriends thought this had happened.  Ok there might be some varieties in the depth of what each person knows - but still not a single one of the group thinks that Madeleine McCann was abducted. 
And for the time and date; What can you do, no matter how panicked you are, in just a few hours to warrant a saga about an abduction that holds for 12 years?!?
As Gerry McCann says in the australian interview ‚
´how could we have concealed her body in such a short time? It’s ridiculous.´.  Yes indeed it’s ridiculous. Because it all happened before! But by placing the Tanner sighting and also the Smithsighting (which both are pure rubbish) on the Thursday 3d, it strengthens people‘s beliefs that it all happened on that day.
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Post by Tony Bennett on 27.03.19 18:45

@Rachel007 wrote:Thankyou.

SNIPPED

As Gerry McCann said in the Australian interview:

´How could we have concealed her body in such a short time? It’s ridiculous.´  Yes indeed it’s ridiculous.
Good post again.


Perhaps we should take Gerry at his word?


Was he speaking the plain truth to us, in plain sight?


They COULDN'T have hidden the body & raised the abduction alarm within just 3-4 hours.


So it all must have happened much earlier?

____________________

Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"

Amelie Mcann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".  

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Post by Phoebe on 27.03.19 19:00

Indeed, it has always been Gerry's defence that they couldn't have hidden Madeleine's body in the time frame between 5.30 and 10 p.m. and it's been Kate's defence that they couldn't have moved her body later in the hire car. The P.J. think both scenarios are entirely plausible and I must say I agree with them. Four and a half hours - whew! that's more than half the traditional eight hour working day!
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Post by Rachel007 on 27.03.19 20:24

Hi Phoebe,

The link abobe in one of Tony Bennets posts, I think it’s the opening post in that thread clearly shows what things that had to be ´taken care of´ if this had occurred on the evening of Thursday 3d. It’s just not about concealing a body (as if that wasn’t enough), it’s all the logistics with every step that would follow such an action! And remember there were other children in the group as well. Were they amongst the adults when they planned what to do with Madeleine? I cannot in my wildest imagination see anything of that have taken place within 3-4 hours... Ok even if it is half a working day+30 min, that’s not much when it comes to work in general... but this is about so much more...please read the ´to do list´ in that opening post to get an understanding what had to be done in such a short time...I say NO WAY... and so does Gerry:-)
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Post by Phoebe on 27.03.19 22:34

Hi Rachel.  Dr. Amaral and the P.J are experienced investigators into major crime. Mark Harrison was, in '07, the leading U.K. body recovery expert and adviser to British police forces. Both of these vastly experienced investigative forces concluded that Madeleine was dead and that her body could be hidden somewhere in the Praia da L. area. They were fully aware of any constraints imposed by the timeline they were working from. None of these experienced professionals concluded that it was impossible to have hidden the body and covered up the crime in the time between when Madeleine was last seen independently at high tea and the raising of the alarm. If it's good enough for those who are trained and vastly experienced in this field, then its good enough for me. Personally, I defer to their expertise.
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Post by christotruthpls on 28.03.19 7:09

Hi, calpol is not primarily sedative.  You cant instantly die from too much paracetamol alone.
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Post by Phoebe on 28.03.19 11:48

@ Tony B. The issue under discussion which sparked my reply was the claim that four and a half hours was not long enough to hide a body and cover up an accident.

 In this matter it is irrelevant whether Dr. Amaral, the P.J and Mark Harrison were on the case for five days, five months, or five years.

They were working from a hypothesis that Madeleine had met her fate and been disposed of in that four and a half hour period.

 They regarded it as perfectly possible, and they are vastly experienced in such matters. Any impossibility would have occurred to them pretty quickly if it had existed.

I absolutely have not said that Martin Smith is an "Unreliable witness" I believe he is truthful. His evidence is not strong enough to be admissable. That is not the same as being HIM unreliable. That is an important distinction. Smith's veracity should not be conflated nor confused with the potential of his testimony.
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Post by Rachel007 on 28.03.19 13:11

Phoebe, 
I think you misunderstood the last sentence in Tony Bennets reply, it said that the PJ said that M.Smith was an unreliable witness. Not that you have said it. Only that you disagree with it (meaning you think he is reliable) and that’s also what you confirm in your latest post.

Regarding the 4,5 hours to conceal a body - well to make it that actually means something had to happen promptly at 5.30 pm. And according to you Madeleine was last seen at high tea by that time. Is that realistic? At least she had to be put to bed after the tea with all little things that you do before sleeping (brushing teeth, put on pyjama etc etc.) What’s left? 2,5 or maybe 3 hours?
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Post by Tony Bennett on 28.03.19 13:15

@Phoebe wrote:@ Tony B.
I absolutely have not said that Martin Smith is an "Unreliable witness" I believe he is truthful.
@ Phoebe    It seems you have completely misunderstood my key point.

Please be so kind as to carefully re-read what I wrote.

I said that you believe that Martin Smith is a reliable witness.

I told you that in the PJ final report they clearly took the view (as I also do) that Martin Smith was a highly unreliable witness.

You said, in terms, that the PJ were wonderful, experienced officers who got everything right.

You tell me that the PJ are so wonderful and experienced that they MUST be right that Madeleine died after 5.30pm on 3 May 2007.

But when the PJ say "Martin Smith was an unreliable witness", you shout: "No! He was a reliable witness!. You say the PJ were WRONG about that.

Do you now see your inconsistency?

____________________

Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"

Amelie Mcann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".  

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Post by Jill Havern on 28.03.19 13:26

@Rachel007 wrote:Phoebe, 
I think you misunderstood the last sentence in Tony Bennets reply, it said that the PJ said that M.Smith was an unreliable witness. Not that you have said it. Only that you disagree with it (meaning you think he is reliable) and that’s also what you confirm in your latest post.

Regarding the 4,5 hours to conceal a body - well to make it that actually means something had to happen promptly at 5.30 pm. And according to you Madeleine was last seen at high tea by that time. Is that realistic? At least she had to be put to bed after the tea with all little things that you do before sleeping (brushing teeth, put on pyjama etc etc.) What’s left? 2,5 or maybe 3 hours?
During which time they presumably have to grieve, compose themselves, do something with the twins, forensically clean the apartment, prepare Madeleine's body for disposal, put together a plan for the hoax abduction, write out two different timelines on Madeleine's sticker book, decide what Jane Tanner is going to see, then head out for dinner at the Tapas during which time Gerry is seen talking to Jez Wilkins and then pretends to be Smithman...
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Post by Tony Bennett on 28.03.19 13:37

Regarding the 4.5 hours to conceal a body - well to make it that actually means something had to happen promptly at 5.30 pm. And according to you Madeleine was last seen at high tea by that time. Is that realistic? At least she had to be put to bed after the tea with all little things that you do before sleeping (brushing teeth, put on pyjama etc etc.) What’s left? 2.5 or maybe 3 hours?
Let's be very clear about the theory that Madeleine died from an accident after 5.30pm on Thursday 3 May 2007.

Those who advocate it maintain that the four witnesses to the high tea are all telling the truth. At the very earliest,its doubtful that the McCann family were back at G5A before 5.45pm.

They are all there. It is then presumed that, in the presence of all the family, Madeleine had a fatal accident after about 5.45pm. The alternative view, which I think Goncalo Amaral suggested, was that Madeleine died by accident AFTER the McCanns had left for dinner at about 8.30pm.

Either alternative seems utterly improbable.

Added to that, there are some, including some members on CMOMM, who still seriously believe that, at the very time his wife Kate and her friends were raising the alarm, Gerry McCann hastened towards the beach carrying his daughter, hoping against hope that he would find a suitable place to hide or dispose of her body where no-one would ever find it.

If Madeleine died while the other two children were present, you have to explain how the McCanns not only commandeered all the Tapas 7 into lying for them four hours later, and claiming that Jane saw the abductor at 9.5pm, but also explain how the twins were dealt with.

Did Gerry McCann ring round his Tapas 7 mates and say: "Look, Maddie's just had a fatal accident. Can you please look after the twins for a bit while we sort things out and create an abduction hoax?"

If, as I think Goncalo Amaral thought, Madeleine woke after her parents left for dinner, climbed on to the sofa and perhaps fatally banged her head in the process, then Gerry McCann, who presumably discovered this sometime after they'd all sat down for dinner at 8.45pm, would have had to go back to the dinner table and tell his friends:

"Look. Maddie's had a fatal accident. Can you fake an abduction hoax while I pick up Maddie's body and try and hide it somewhere?"

If one thinks this through carefully, sheer logic surely declares that there is no way on earth that Madeleine could have suddenly died that very evening?

____________________

Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"

Amelie Mcann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".  

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Post by Tony Bennett on 28.03.19 13:42

@Jill Havern wrote:
@Rachel007 wrote:Phoebe, 
I think you misunderstood the last sentence in Tony Bennets reply, it said that the PJ said that M.Smith was an unreliable witness. Not that you have said it. Only that you disagree with it (meaning you think he is reliable) and that’s also what you confirm in your latest post.

Regarding the 4,5 hours to conceal a body - well to make it that actually means something had to happen promptly at 5.30 pm. And according to you Madeleine was last seen at high tea by that time. Is that realistic? At least she had to be put to bed after the tea with all little things that you do before sleeping (brushing teeth, put on pyjama etc etc.) What’s left? 2,5 or maybe 3 hours?
During which time they presumably have to grieve, compose themselves, do something with the twins, forensically clean the apartment, prepare Madeleine's body for disposal, put together a plan for the hoax abduction, write out two different timelines on Madeleine's sticker book, decide what Jane Tanner is going to see, then head out for dinner at the Tapas during which time Gerry is seen talking to Jez Wilkins and then pretends to be Smithman...
Oh...and also make sure that Nuno Lourenco is fully briefed and ready with a handy photograph of Wojchiech Krokowski's hired car, so that on Saturday morning the PJ will be sent on a wild goose chase to Germany and Poland, thinking that Maddie is with the Krokowskis!

____________________

Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"

Amelie Mcann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".  

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Post by Phoebe on 28.03.19 15:39

Reply to Tony Bennett.

Having re read the P.J. report I see NO reference to the Smith's testimony being "unreliable". It merely points out the fact that Gerry has alibis who claim he was at the Tapas at the time of the sighting while the Smiths cannot definitely say the man they saw was Gerry.

Snipped form the P.J. final report-

Further on this issue, the testimony of MARTIN SMITH was considered, pages 1606 and following, reporting the sighting of an individual carrying a child, in one of the streets that lead to the beach. It was said that the child could be MADELEINE McCANN, although it was never peremptorily stated. Some time later, the witness alleged that, by its stance, the individual who carried the child could be GERALD McCANN, which was concluded when he saw him descending the stairs from an airplane, pages 2871, 3991 and following and 4135 and following. It was established that at the time that was being mentioned, GERALD McCANN was sitting at the table, in the Tapas Restaurant.
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