Matt Oldfields 'check'

 Fierljepper  I have merged your thread here., as it is about MO checks.

 I would be grateful if you would do a search next time for your main post to see if there are others topics on the subject to post on.  We are at the moment getting far too many new threads opened.    Thanks.

candyfloss wrote: Fierljepper  I have merged your thread here., as it is about MO checks.

 I would be grateful if you would do a search next time for your main post to see if there are others topics on the subject to post on.  We are at the moment getting far too many new threads opened.    Thanks.

Thanks. And apologies, learning to navigate the site!

Fierljepper wrote:

candyfloss wrote: Fierljepper  I have merged your thread here., as it is about MO checks.

 I would be grateful if you would do a search next time for your main post to see if there are others topics on the subject to post on.  We are at the moment getting far too many new threads opened.    Thanks.

Thanks. And apologies, learning to navigate the site!

No problem,   I have just mentioned it in the Debate section for new members.  It just keep things together without having lots of threads of same thing with only a few posts in them.

Fierljepper wrote:

candyfloss wrote: Fierljepper  I have merged your thread here., as it is about MO checks.

 I would be grateful if you would do a search next time for your main post to see if there are others topics on the subject to post on.  We are at the moment getting far too many new threads opened.    Thanks.

Thanks. And apologies, learning to navigate the site!

Hoi Fierljepper, bist do ek Frysk?

Fierljepper

MO returned immediately to the Tapas restaurant to inform JT that her daughter was ill, and then JT walked back round to her apartment so that RO could go back to eat his meal 9.45 ish.

It's unlikely IMO that MO would be carrying MM around PdL whilst the Tapas group and Mark Warner staff and others were searching for her. What could, in theory, be possible though, is that MO arranged to meet someone by the apartment at 9 pm, then, if they weren't there, he had to be the one to go back round to the apartment at 9.30 pm instead. He might, for example, have wanted to make sure that GM had not relocked that patio door ........

On the other hand, it's possible that he offered to do the 9.30 pm check, in place of Kate, to prevent her from seeing something which might have upset her (something that one or two of the group may have already been aware of, like an accident) For example, did MO return to the Tapas at 9 pm to tell GM all was not well? (GM left the Tapas immediately) Was GM returning to the Tapas for assistance when he saw JW? Did JT encounter GM on her way round to her apartment, after his conversation with JW? (JT had wondered what was keeping him so long, was he watching the football?) GM then returned to the Tapas. Did he go for assistance from MO and ROB, leaving JT at the apartment? (Jane's tv interview, where it looked as though she said 'I carried her')  

Perhaps KM was only told what had happened after 10 pm? Perhaps she was in conversation with the Paynes during dinner (who knew nothing of unfolding events). Perhaps KM's reaction to the open window, scene of abduction, at the time, was entirely genuine?

Did Matt Oldfield claim to have alerted Jane to her daughter's sickness?

Without checking the files (can't face all the ums and ers at the moment) I thought that it was Russell who supposedly found that his daughter had been sick and then managed to clean her up, change her bedding and get her back to sleep within 10 minutes.

I don't believe that anyone was making routine checks on the children of the other couples.

suzyjohnson wrote:Fierljepper

MO returned immediately to the Tapas restaurant to inform JT that her daughter was ill, and then JT walked back round to her apartment so that RO could go back to eat his meal 9.45 ish.

It's unlikely IMO that MO would be carrying MM around PdL whilst the Tapas group and Mark Warner staff and others were searching for her. What could, in theory, be possible though, is that MO arranged to meet someone by the apartment at 9 pm, then, if they weren't there, he had to be the one to go back round to the apartment at 9.30 pm instead. He might, for example, have wanted to make sure that GM had not relocked that patio door ........

On the other hand, it's possible that he offered to do the 9.30 pm check, in place of Kate, to prevent her from seeing something which might have upset her (something that one or two of the group may have already been aware of, like an accident) For example, did MO return to the Tapas at 9 pm to tell GM all was not well? (GM left the Tapas immediately) Was GM returning to the Tapas for assistance when he saw JW? Did JT encounter GM on her way round to her apartment, after his conversation with JW? (JT had wondered what was keeping him so long, was he watching the football?) GM then returned to the Tapas. Did he go for assistance from MO and ROB, leaving JT at the apartment? (Jane's tv interview, where it looked as though she said 'I carried her')  

Perhaps KM was only told what had happened after 10 pm? Perhaps she was in conversation with the Paynes during dinner (who knew nothing of unfolding events). Perhaps KM's reaction to the open window, scene of abduction, at the time, was entirely genuine?

These are my thoughts suzyjohnson. To support the theory of JT involvement at the earliest stage there is a witness statement from a Brit lady who saw a -Portuguese- looking female outside the McCann's apartment an hour or so before she went missing. The female was wearing purple , looking suspicious as if she didn't want to be seen.
JT looks Portuguese doesn't she?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-481789/Portuguese-police-dont-evidence-charge-Madeleines-parents.html. Scroll down to see picture of Tanner.
JT was wearing purple that evening, Jeremy Wilkins said so in his statement.

I cannot seem to find the witness statement of the Brit lady but will keep trying.

Here is a link.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/100071/EXCLUSIVE-Who-was-the-woman-outside-Maddie-s-flat. The brown car sounds interesting.

Hicks wrote:

suzyjohnson wrote:Fierljepper

MO returned immediately to the Tapas restaurant to inform JT that her daughter was ill, and then JT walked back round to her apartment so that RO could go back to eat his meal 9.45 ish.

It's unlikely IMO that MO would be carrying MM around PdL whilst the Tapas group and Mark Warner staff and others were searching for her. What could, in theory, be possible though, is that MO arranged to meet someone by the apartment at 9 pm, then, if they weren't there, he had to be the one to go back round to the apartment at 9.30 pm instead. He might, for example, have wanted to make sure that GM had not relocked that patio door ........

On the other hand, it's possible that he offered to do the 9.30 pm check, in place of Kate, to prevent her from seeing something which might have upset her (something that one or two of the group may have already been aware of, like an accident) For example, did MO return to the Tapas at 9 pm to tell GM all was not well? (GM left the Tapas immediately) Was GM returning to the Tapas for assistance when he saw JW? Did JT encounter GM on her way round to her apartment, after his conversation with JW? (JT had wondered what was keeping him so long, was he watching the football?) GM then returned to the Tapas. Did he go for assistance from MO and ROB, leaving JT at the apartment? (Jane's tv interview, where it looked as though she said 'I carried her')  

Perhaps KM was only told what had happened after 10 pm? Perhaps she was in conversation with the Paynes during dinner (who knew nothing of unfolding events). Perhaps KM's reaction to the open window, scene of abduction, at the time, was entirely genuine?

These are my thoughts suzyjohnson. To support the theory of JT involvement at the earliest stage there is a witness statement from a Brit lady who saw a -Portuguese- looking female outside the McCann's apartment an hour or so before she went missing. The female was wearing purple , looking suspicious as if she didn't want to be seen.
JT looks Portuguese doesn't she?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-481789/Portuguese-police-dont-evidence-charge-Madeleines-parents.html. Scroll down to see picture of Tanner.
JT was wearing purple that evening, Jeremy Wilkins said so in his statement.

I cannot seem to find the witness statement of the Brit lady but will keep trying.

Hicks, here's the part of JW's statement you are looking for:

Relative to the exact location you met Gerry'
I left my apartment pushing my son's pram so that he could sleep. I did not have a particular direction to follow nor did I have a specific time to do this. I left the apartment and turned right. I walked via the lower street, looked to the building block where the McCann apartment was situated and saw a woman dressed in purple clothing. I referred to this woman in relation to the questions asked by Jane Tanner. At the next crossing, I turned right and continued on down the hill. At this point, I saw a man that was coming from the road and was headed to the reception. I believe that he was with a woman but I cannot be precise of any detail about her. It was a tall Caucasian man, with blonde hair in 'rasta style' tied with a band instead of free flowin

No Fate Worse Than De'Ath wrote:Did Matt Oldfield claim to have alerted Jane to her daughter's sickness?

Without checking the files (can't face all the ums and ers at the moment) I thought that it was Russell who supposedly found that his daughter had been sick and then managed to clean her up, change her bedding and get her back to sleep within 10 minutes.

I don't believe that anyone was making routine checks on the children of the other couples.

MO walked round to the apartments with ROB about 9.30 pm, Matt to check on his daughter, and Russell to check on his children. After Matt had been to his own apartment, he knocked on Russel's door who told him that his daughter was sick and could he tell Jane, as ROB was staying at his flat. MO then checked on the McCann's children, then went back to the Tapas. Jane then went to take over from ROB so that he could return to the Tapas for his meal about 9.50 pm (One meal had been sent back to be kept hot)

Hicks wrote:These are my thoughts suzyjohnson. To support the theory of JT involvement at the earliest stage there is a witness statement from a Brit lady who saw a -Portuguese- looking female outside the McCann's apartment an hour or so before she went missing. The female was wearing purple , looking suspicious as if she didn't want to be seen.
JT looks Portuguese doesn't she?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-481789/Portuguese-police-dont-evidence-charge-Madeleines-parents.html. Scroll down to see picture of Tanner.
JT was wearing purple that evening, Jeremy Wilkins said so in his statement.

I cannot seem to find the witness statement of the Brit lady but will keep trying.

Here is a link.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/100071/EXCLUSIVE-Who-was-the-woman-outside-Maddie-s-flat. The brown car sounds interesting.

Yes, Jane does seem to feature in this whole story quite a lot, doesn't she?

"MO returned immediately to the Tapas restaurant to inform JT that her daughter was ill, and then JT walked back round to her apartment so that RO could go back to eat his meal 9.45 ish."

Given that independent witness statements have the Tapas 9's table empty except for Diane Webster sat like a plum from 9.30pm-9.50, I wonder why no-one noticed RO'B had returned to eat his main course which had become cold during his absence and, after asking for his meal to be reheated, he was served with a fresh steak cooked from scratch.

Andy Redwood said the reconstruction as aired by CW was 'the truest account yet' which, to me, suggests this latest version is not necessarily the last we'll see or hear about. 

Given that it painted a rosy but false picture of Madeleine's last holiday with her parents, IMO we can surmise AR was referring to that part of the film which sought to establish whose bums were sitting at the table and which bums were absent, and for how long, on the night in question.

AR may be of the opinion that a 'reconstitution' enacted by all members of the Tapas 9 at the Ocean Club resort/apartments in Praia de Luz at the request, and under the supervision, of the PJ is likely to produce an account which will come closer to the truth.

The press have reported that the McCanns are willing to participate in such a reconstitution, and it's to be hoped this will serve to further the joint aim of SY and the PJ investigations to obtain justice for Madeleine in the near future.

It seems very odd to me that every man and his dog seemed to check on the McCanns' children (whether listening outside the window or listening inside the apartment, but not seeing Madeleine) but neither Kate or Gerry McCann did a check on any of their Tapas friends' children.  Hmmmmm, there's nothing like keeping your own nose clean but dropping everyone else "in it"!!!

I wonder who was running the "show", well, let me think about that.

Newintown wrote:It seems very odd to me that every man and his dog seemed to check on the McCanns' children (whether listening outside the window or listening inside the apartment, but not seeing Madeleine) but neither Kate or Gerry McCann did a check on any of their Tapas friends' children.  Hmmmmm, there's nothing like keeping your own nose clean but dropping everyone else "in it"!!!

I wonder who was running the "show", well, let me think about that.

 

Yes, hadn't occurred to me before, that oddness re checks on children

PeterMac wrote:And where is the "Window of Opportunity now.
Everyone (except one) passes and re-passes the side entrance.
Everyone crosses the car park and not one reports windows open, shutters up and curtains whooshing.
No one reports car arriving or departing with or without lights.
No one reports people hanging around.
So when
And how
And where

They have been trapped.

Something just occurred to me PeterMac and I think it is to do with your one-minute-twenty-seconds  window that the Tapas group had previously pinned themselves down to.

Now that Tannerman has been discounted and the window of opportunity widened, Smithman is currently the main suspect.

Assuming that Smithman would only run from A to B, that is from appartment 5A to where the Smiths saw him, and not around the streets. How far did Pat Brown say it was from the appartment? About 6 minutes? 

Smithman was spotted between 9.50 pm - to 10 pm. So, Smithman can only have set off on his journey between 9.44 pm - 9.54 pm? How does that time frame fit in with what the Tapas say they were doing at that time?

suzyjohnson wrote:Fierljepper

MO returned immediately to the Tapas restaurant to inform JT that her daughter was ill, and then JT walked back round to her apartment so that RO could go back to eat his meal 9.45 ish.

It's unlikely IMO that MO would be carrying MM around PdL whilst the Tapas group and Mark Warner staff and others were searching for her. What could, in theory, be possible though, is that MO arranged to meet someone by the apartment at 9 pm, then, if they weren't there, he had to be the one to go back round to the apartment at 9.30 pm instead. He might, for example, have wanted to make sure that GM had not relocked that patio door ........

On the other hand, it's possible that he offered to do the 9.30 pm check, in place of Kate, to prevent her from seeing something which might have upset her (something that one or two of the group may have already been aware of, like an accident) For example, did MO return to the Tapas at 9 pm to tell GM all was not well? (GM left the Tapas immediately) Was GM returning to the Tapas for assistance when he saw JW? Did JT encounter GM on her way round to her apartment, after his conversation with JW? (JT had wondered what was keeping him so long, was he watching the football?) GM then returned to the Tapas. Did he go for assistance from MO and ROB, leaving JT at the apartment? (Jane's tv interview, where it looked as though she said 'I carried her')  

Perhaps KM was only told what had happened after 10 pm? Perhaps she was in conversation with the Paynes during dinner (who knew nothing of unfolding events). Perhaps KM's reaction to the open window, scene of abduction, at the time, was entirely genuine?

Thanks Suzy. I still find it hard to believe there was an advanced form of collusion going on between the Tapas 9 (yes, I believe this despite the many inconsistencies in their statements). The solution must be more simple, but then it is really hard to come up with a scenario that fits the data.

MO and ROB more or less coincidently decided to do the check together (in MO's statement he even states that it made him feel more comfortable offering this). So, that they both walked up and then ROB deciding to stay with his child that was ill, could not really be a predictable scenario for both of them. But with MO suddenly all on his own, does provide him with some (small) window of opportunity to do something to Maddie. But agree this is a very difficult challenge to come up with ideas for this window. I even considered completely crazy scenarios that MO would enact a kidnap in 5A as a kind of a very bad prank (that then got totally out of hand). Or that he encountered MM awake and/or she he saw her already walking on the street and him deciding to carry her back and dropping her caused a panic reaction (and him hiding her body temporarily). But this seems all pretty far fetched. Even considered MO and his wife colluding and that Maddie was temporarily hidden in their apartment for a while when everybody was running around. But then again, very far fetched. It should have implied he had it all thought out in advance (which he apparently didn't), then immediately went into 5A, snatched MM from her bed and then brought her to his own apartment.

Still believe there is something fishy going here and probably also believe that when we ever find out the truth, it will look stunningly simple in hindsight (like the Black Swan theory learns us about inconceivable events that have an extremely low probability to occur as a sort of perfect storm, but when they happen they do make perfect sense in hind sight. I.e. something like a volcano eruption in Iceland stopping all airline traffic in EU/US).

Anyway, back to reading about the case.

OT Fierljepper, but are you from Fryslân?

Châtelaine wrote:OT Fierljepper, but are you from Fryslân?

Not really. I am a Tukker living in West-Fryslân. I picked this nick as a typical Dutch sport when a joined the Holloway case forums a long time ago.

I know what you mean Fierljepper, it is very difficult to find an explanation that not only makes sense but that makes moral sense at the same time? Why would other members of the group, who didn't even know the McCanns that well, cover for them?

Unless of course it is actually the McCanns who are covering for someone else, presumably either JT, ROB or MO. Perhaps something terrible did happen but there was a reason why the others felt sympathy towards the person responsible. For example, if MO had frightened MM when he went to check, if she was awake and ran out of the apartment to fall from the balcony, although this doesn't really explain why it couldn't be reported as an accident. Neither does it explain the findings of the dogs.

Perhaps MM had an illness or accident already happened by the Thurs morning, I thought,for example, sunburn or a concussion (which can get worse over time, and MM was said to be really tired after going to the creche on the Thurs), something that should have been obvious to doctors that she needed hospital treatment. Perhaps they were all negligent in failing to take her for appropriate treatment? The 'last photo' shows a happy, healthy looking girl, but then could the photo have been taken on another day, and produced to prove that MM was fine early on that Thurs afternoon?

suzyjohnson wrote:I know what you mean Fierljepper, it is very difficult to find an explanation that not only makes sense but that makes moral sense at the same time? Why would other members of the group, who didn't even know the McCanns that well, cover for them?

Unless of course it is actually the McCanns who are covering for someone else, presumably either JT, ROB or MO. Perhaps something terrible did happen but there was a reason why the others felt sympathy towards the person responsible. For example, if MO had frightened MM when he went to check, if she was awake and ran out of the apartment to fall from the balcony, although this doesn't really explain why it couldn't be reported as an accident. Neither does it explain the findings of the dogs.

Perhaps MM had an illness or accident already happened by the Thurs morning, I thought,for example, sunburn or a concussion (which can get worse over time, and MM was said to be really tired after going to the creche on the Thurs), something that should have been obvious to doctors that she needed hospital treatment. Perhaps they were all negligent in failing to take her for appropriate treatment? The 'last photo' shows a happy, healthy looking girl, but then could the photo have been taken on another day, and produced to prove that MM was fine early on that Thurs afternoon?

Agree. Here is my latest thinking. It could have been a burglar being caught in the act by Maddie when the situation got very bad actually by the MO check.

This is a weird case. It's either an organized abduction at one extreme end (at least that's what the most hard data points seem to suggest) or it is a pretty complicated collusion between the Tapas 9 to collectively cover up a crime. And I actually can't be really convinced by either of these extremes. The abduction just has a too low probability and no precedences in that location and the second one is just too complex to concoct successfully for such a long period of time.

The truth must be somewhere in the middle and the scenario also must be as simple as possible. A scenario like:

* Maddie woke up and left the apartment to search for her parents and got lost or met a stranger etc. But then why were the window and shutter suddenly open. Doesn't make sense.

* Either GM or MO accidentally killed Maddie or found her dead (like a via an overdose or MO picking her up and dropping her) and enacted an abduction. But then where is the body and how could they have ever disposed of her in the very limited time they had? Simply doesn't add up.

* There was a burglar or more burglars accessing the apartment via the window (note: two previous burglaries took place also around dinner time in April in the same block that Madeleine disappeared from. In both the April burglaries entry was gained via a window. That is quite a remarkable precedent !). Maddie caught them in the act and started to scream so they had to silence her but accidentally killed her. But then why not just leave the body behind and get out of the apartment asap? Why take the child with you, did they leave traceable DNA or her and is that the reason she had to disappear? Were they maybe caught in the act by MO as well when he did his inspection. Did she bite in one of their hands when they were holding her to prevent her from screaming? Were they afraid she would raise alarm to soon when they'd led her go and hence they decided to take her to a saver distance and leave her there?

In some way I still like this simple burglary scenario since it fits with a trend that can be extrapolated. Note that it clearly happened recently before (twice), they also did it at dinner time, it was block 5 as well and they gained access via the window. It also happened 14 days after the previous event, hence for burglars a good interval for the dust to get settled (new guests and no 'memory of the previous event' and a safe time to strike once again. Also, if anyone of the 3 children would have woken up from this burglary, it must have been Maddie, so it also answers the question why Maddie was taken and not one of the twins. But then I still need a good reason for a burglar, who is only trying to snatch some quick money/jewelry, ending up with the need to take a child with him.

I can imagine Maddie getting out of bed and catching him in the act e.g. going through her parents stuff in their bedroom (drawers show to be open on the pics). And I could even conceive of this happening at the same time when MO came in through the patio when the burglar was in the parents bed room (i.e. he was trapped), hence he grabbed Maddie and silenced her (maybe too harshly because she still made a sound and he held his hand across her face too tightly). So, he was extremely lucky that MO only spotted the children's bedroom door being wider open that GM left it before and that he didn't spot Maddie not being in her bed or the window/shutter being open. Almost a perfect storm, but he got out of it. His stress levels must have gone up terribly though and this could have contributed to him doing harm to Maddie. But then again why take her with you? This only makes sense when he accidentally killed her this way (total panic) and needed to remove all traces from this simple burglary that totally got out of hand. So, not a planned abduction and not even an attempt to make it look like an abduction, but it just being a burglary getting totally out of control.

Thoughts?

Fierljepper wrote:

Châtelaine wrote:OT Fierljepper, but are you from Fryslân?

Not really. I am a Tukker living in West-Fryslân. I picked this nick as a typical Dutch sport when a joined the Holloway case forums a long time ago.

I remember fierljeppen very well from my childhood, but I rarely managed to stay dry

Fierljepper wrote:

Châtelaine wrote:OT Fierljepper, but are you from Fryslân?

Not really. I am a Tukker living in West-Fryslân. I picked this nick as a typical Dutch sport when a joined the Holloway case forums a long time ago.

I remember fierljeppen very well from my childhood, but I rarely managed to stay dry

Did Oldfield have a rental car this day? 

Hi.
Iam from Sweden and I have follow this case for many years but this is my first post on this forum.
I think we start to see the beginning of the end for this case.