Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

by Cristobell 05.06.14 19:44

HelenMeg wrote:I believe that Smithman was Gerry carrying a live child, not a dead child. Of course, he did not want to be scrutinised. But who would have scrutinised
a man carrying a child in a holiday resort? He just wanted to be noticed - to give credibility to the abduction scenario. He dressed in different clothes for this purpose.

But he didn't want to be noticed HelenMeg. He kept his head down and ignored Mrs Smith's enquiry about the child and imo, he has been deliberately kept low profile by the McCanns. If he were part of the McCanns' plan, he would have featured prominently in the campaign from the start.

It could do him no harm to be spotted as he was not doing anything wrong and he made sure that noone was able to engage in conversation with him.
He wasn't acting or providing a decoy = he was simply carrying a child in the resort area so that an abduction story would have some credibility, IMO.

Being spotted can and did cause enormous harm to Gerry. Imo, being seen led directly to the creation of Tannerman to rebut what was seen by the Smith family. I think Plan A, was going horribly wrong when Gerry did his mad dash.

So, some do not agree - that's fine. It may have been something he regretted in hindsight, and probably was. But it owuld be most unlikely that he did not regret some of the actions.
No way would they carry out everything perfectly or do everything 'by the book'. There was no book. It is only reasonable to assume that they would make errors of judgement - and this, in my view, was one of them.

Those that do not agree with my view and find it illogical and preposterous (to say the least) - who do you think Smithman was? Do you think it was GM carrying a dead child?. -

I agree they were acting in panic, and I agree there were huge errors in judgement - where do we begin on that one? - Preposterous as it may sound, I do believe Gerry was carrying a deceased Madeleine - no other theory or scenario fits with the witness evidence. If Gerry were carrying another child to lay an abductor trail, he would have been in the wrong place when the alarm went off carrying a child who was not his missing daughter. In addition, he would have to dump the alive child somewhere so obscure she would not be found during the imminent searches, and whose absence would have to be explained in the event a head was done of the tapas children. Even a raving lunatic like Gerry would not take such a risk - I believe he was panicked into moving the body quickly - a phone call perhaps? Who knows, something that made his risk his made dash.

The Smith sighting was not part of an elaborate plan, it was a huge mistake, one the McCanns have tried to buy for 7 years, and one which now central to the current investigation.

I have given a lot of thought to the Smithman scenario, and attempted to look at it from every angle. Today, I had a bit of an epiphany and looked at it face on. It if walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck, then I called to mind that surreal scene on Crimewatch, where the prime suspect was sitting on a stool in front of two giant efits of himself! The descriptions given of the man and child exactly match the description of the father and missing little girl. It is beyond a coincidence.

As appalling as the tapas group parents are, they would not 'lend' Gerry a child to carry through the dark streets and dump who knows where to create a distraction.

by roy rovers 05.06.14 19:54

But Christobell why at that time? Unless as you suggest it was a hastily arranged Plan B after Plan A had come unstuck. Which begs the question what was Plan A?

by **sharonl** 05.06.14 21:26

I am not really sure what to make of the Smith sighting, not that I disbelieve the family but what exactly did they see and why is it so significant?

Here is an extract from the statement of Martin Smith

As he reached this artery, he saw an individual carrying a child, who walked normally and fitted in perfectly in that area, in that it is common to see people carrying children, at least during the holiday season. This individual was walking the downward path, in the opposite direction to him and his companions. He is not aware where this person was headed. He only saw him as they passed each other. He assumed it was a father and daughter, not raising any suspicion.

Surely, a man carrying a child on holiday is, as Mr Smith stated, nothing out of the ordinary?

Could it have been Madeleine and her abductor?

Would an abductor really kidnap a child and walk through the streets of the holiday resort just as the alarm was sounded and a major search began? Of course not, he would have had transport or at least left the resort ASAP.

Susan Healy said that Madeleine would screamed if someone strange had taken her - was she screaming?

Could it have been Madeleine and Gerry McCann?

If it was Gerry and Madeleine, then that would give rise to a number of questions. it would also mean that Madeleine had died on that evening.

Goncalo Amaral and the PJ state that there was blood under the tiles, fluids on the wall were indicative of a broken neck and that the cadaver had been frozen.

Martin Smith and his family gave a detailed description of the man and the child but did he mention that the childs hair was sticky and blood stained, that her body was rigid, that there was a nasty odour? No, he didn't so this would indicate that it was not a dead child that he had spotted. Besides, what are the chances that a reasonably intelligent man would carry the dead body of his 4yr old daughter across a holiday resort?

Even if this was so, Madeleine would have died between 5.30 and 8.00 given them a maximum of 2.5 hours to sort out the twins, tend to the cadaver, clean up, wash the curtains, stage an abduction, and get ready for an evening out at the tapas bar.

If this was Gerry & Madeleine, was Madeleine alive at that point? Highly unlikely as this doesn't tie in with any of the evidence.

For me, that at least rules out Madeleine. But not, Gerry. A decoy, perhaps? Hoping to be seen so that someone would report a man with a child at that time? A very risky step to take imo. Is he really going to impersonate an abductor?

So Smith saw a man walking normally with a child, how is this significant?

by j.rob 05.06.14 21:44

Was plan A a staged faked abduction of a live child?

This could possibly tie in with the Crimewatch stuff. Jez and his pram and all that. Plus Amber Alert stuff. Plus the friend of Kate who set up the missing child company name before Madeleine went missing. Plus, maybe high level support - even if just under the belief of a tragic accident?

Plan B - 'it's a disaster', un-jemmied shutters, Tanner-man, dodgy 'timelines', Smith-man chaos et al.

by AndyB 05.06.14 21:53

sharonl wrote:So Smith saw a man walking normally with a child, how is this significant?

The real significance for me isn't so much the sighting but the McCanns reaction to it. If you genuinely believe that your child has been abducted why on earth would you suppress information about a sighting of a man carrying a child around Madeleine's age at around the time that you claim she was abducted? The McCanns themselves seem to think its significant because they had to resort to legal action to silence their own investigator's findings about Smithman. If they want to suppress it, I want to know all about it.

by logical 05.06.14 21:56

Sharoni

I am in total agreement with Cristobell on the Smiths sighting.

If Madeleine died in 5a and her family panicked and decided that to conceal her body was the better of 2 evils then Gerry Mc Cann would have had to conceal her body somewhere away from the apartment and this would have most lilkely meant that he had to walk some route one way or the other with Madeleine in order to conceal her body away from 5a and fake the "abduction".

Luz was out of season at that time of year and most streets deserted at that time of night and in my opinion Gerry Mc Cann had no choice other than take the chance of not being seen in order to hide Madeleines body.

It was just by chance unluckily for him that he bumped into Smiths for had he gone up some other nearby route he wouldnt have been seen by anybody and job done and in my opinion thats why Tannerman was later created.

by **sharonl** 05.06.14 22:24

logical wrote:Sharoni

I am in total agreement with Cristobell on the Smiths sighting.

If Madeleine died in 5a and her family panicked and decided that to conceal her body was the better of 2 evils then Gerry Mc Cann would have had to conceal her body somewhere away from the apartment and this would have most lilkely meant that he had to walk some route one way or the other with Madeleine in order to conceal her body away from 5a and fake the "abduction".

Luz was out of season at that time of year and most streets deserted at that time of night and in my opinion Gerry Mc Cann had no choice other than take the chance of not being seen in order to hide Madeleines body.

It was just by chance unluckily for him that he bumped into Smiths for had he gone up some other nearby route he wouldnt have been seen by anybody and job done and in my opinion thats why Tannerman was later created.

But surely he would have taken precautions, waited until the early hours, wrapped her in a shawl, taken a buggy at the very least. And, if she did die as stated, where were the blood stains that would have been in her hair? Where was the smell of cadaver odour? At least two things that Smith did not mention.

by Cristobell 05.06.14 22:29

roy rovers wrote:But Christobell why at that time? Unless as you suggest it was a hastily arranged Plan B after Plan A had come unstuck. Which begs the question what was Plan A?

It may be that arrangements for the body to be moved earlier in the evening went awry. Thrown perhaps by Gerry bumping into Jez? Why was Jane (I carried her like this) Tanner hanging around in the street before all the shenanigans kicked off? Jez saw her, she was dressed in purple. Was she a look out? Was she waiting for someone? The shutters weren't jemmied, so who failed to do their job? Kate had to open the window herself and the story they told their relatives did not fit with the scene found by the police.

Imo, things started to go wrong as the evening progressed - anything could have thrown their plans adrift, from someone being held up, to a couple having a drink on balcony overlooking 5A, or a teenager sneaking outside for a crafty cigarette. Perhaps they waiting for a phone call? Whatever happened, I doubt running through the streets with a deceased child was part of the original plan.

by whatliesbehindthesofa 05.06.14 22:35

sharonl wrote:
But surely he would have taken precautions, waited until the early hours, wrapped her in a shawl, taken a buggy at the very least. And, if she did die as stated, where were the blood stains that would have been in her hair? Where was the smell of cadaver odour? At least two things that Smith did not mention.

All my opinion: he didn't have time. According to the statement of waiter J.R.Salcedas, people were already aware that a child was missing and gathering to begin a search when he heard a terrifying scream that he attributes to Kate. My opinion is that it is possible that Gerry panicked and disposed of Madeleine's body, running in the opposite direction (westwards) to the search party that was assembling. The key point for me is that when Salcedas heard the scream, the general public around the Ocean Club were already aware that Madeleine was missing.

by Guest 05.06.14 22:41

I'm tuning in late and haven't read the complete thread, but ... what kind of question is that to hold a poll ...?

Why are there 17 similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

without the possibility to vote, that there are no 17 similarities?

I've been doing a lot of questionnaires and derived statistics from it. This poll reminds me of the very old joke we had about a question: "if yes, why not?"

by HelenMeg 05.06.14 22:41

Cristobell wrote:
roy rovers wrote:But Christobell why at that time? Unless as you suggest it was a hastily arranged Plan B after Plan A had come unstuck. Which begs the question what was Plan A?
It may be that arrangements for the body to be moved earlier in the evening went awry. Thrown perhaps by Gerry bumping into Jez? Why was Jane (I carried her like this) Tanner hanging around in the street before all the shenanigans kicked off? Jez saw her, she was dressed in purple. Was she a look out? Was she waiting for someone? The shutters weren't jemmied, so who failed to do their job? Kate had to open the window herself and the story they told their relatives did not fit with the scene found by the police.

Imo, things started to go wrong as the evening progressed - anything could have thrown their plans adrift, from someone being held up, to a couple having a drink on balcony overlooking 5A, or a teenager sneaking outside for a crafty cigarette. Perhaps they waiting for a phone call? Whatever happened, I doubt running through the streets with a deceased child was part of the original plan.

I cant believe that G would carry a dead child through the streets of PdL over his shoulder. I can imagine him carrying a dead child concealed in a sports bag. I suppose for me, I believe the dead child was long gone by 10pm that evening..

by cassius 05.06.14 22:49

whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
sharonl wrote:
But surely he would have taken precautions, waited until the early hours, wrapped her in a shawl, taken a buggy at the very least. And, if she did die as stated, where were the blood stains that would have been in her hair? Where was the smell of cadaver odour? At least two things that Smith did not mention.

All my opinion: he didn't have time. According to the statement of waiter J.R.Salcedas, people were already aware that a child was missing and gathering to begin a search when he heard a terrifying scream that he attributes to Kate. My opinion is that it is possible that Gerry panicked and disposed of Madeleine's body, running in the opposite direction (westwards) to the search party that was assembling. The key point for me is that when Salcedas heard the scream, the general public around the Ocean Club were already aware that Madeleine was missing.

He couldn,t wait till the early hours as they had to be in the tapas bar for the abduction idea to work.

The scream may have been KM seeing a now deceased Maddie being taken away by GM.Maddie having been removed from a nearby apartment but not 5a.

by **Tony Bennett** 05.06.14 22:56

Châtelaine wrote:I'm tuning in late and haven't read the complete thread, but ... what kind of question is that to hold a poll ...?

Why are there 17 similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

without the possibility to vote, that there are no 17 similarities?

I've been doing a lot of questionnaires and derived statistics from it. This poll reminds me of the very old joke we had about a question: "if yes, why not?"

Chatelaine, your point is well made, but, as the poll creator, here is your opportunity.

Here is my original list of similarities:

1. An unaccompanied male
2. Carrying a child and having no push-chair
3. The child was blonde
4. The child was a girl
5. The child was barefoot
6. The child was wearing light-coloured/pink pyjamas
7. She looked about four years old
8. She was being held on the man’s left side
9. She didn’t have a blanket or other covering
10. The men did not look like tourists
11. They were wearing a dark jacket
12. They were wearing light-coloured trousers
13. They were both about 1.75m to 1.8m tall (5’ 9” – 5’ 10”)
14. They were both aged 35-40
15. They were of average build
16. They were spotted within 600 yards of each other
17. In neither case could the man’s face be seen.

I fully accept the challenge and I would be very pleased if you could be as robust as you wish and tell me which ones of the 17 are NOT similar as between Tannerman and Smithman = thanks very much

by whatliesbehindthesofa 05.06.14 22:58

cassius wrote:
He couldn,t wait till the early hours as they had to be in the tapas bar for the abduction idea to work.

The scream may have been KM seeing a now deceased Maddie being taken away by GM.Maddie having been removed from a nearby apartment but not 5a.

Or it could have been Kate discovering a deceased Maddie behind the sofa in 5A.

by whatliesbehindthesofa 05.06.14 23:00

Châtelaine wrote:I'm tuning in late and haven't read the complete thread, but ... what kind of question is that to hold a poll ...?

Why are there 17 similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

without the possibility to vote, that there are no 17 similarities?

I've been doing a lot of questionnaires and derived statistics from it. This poll reminds me of the very old joke we had about a question: "if yes, why not?"

When 63% of voters go for the option 'Some other reason', you know something's up.

by Hicks 05.06.14 23:02

Sorry to butt in here and go off topic. I know everyone is busy with these new developments but I have just discovered something very interesting. Please just take a look at my post on Hubbard.

by cassius 05.06.14 23:05

whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
cassius wrote:
He couldn,t wait till the early hours as they had to be in the tapas bar for the abduction idea to work.

The scream may have been KM seeing a now deceased Maddie being taken away by GM.Maddie having been removed from a nearby apartment but not 5a.

Or it could have been Kate discovering a deceased Maddie behind the sofa in 5A.

But Mrs Fenn heard nothing from the apartment below till 10.30 .The logic being 5a had been cleaned by now and MBM was dead and elsewhere on the evening of 3rd may. imo

by whatliesbehindthesofa 05.06.14 23:08

cassius wrote:
whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
cassius wrote:
He couldn,t wait till the early hours as they had to be in the tapas bar for the abduction idea to work.

The scream may have been KM seeing a now deceased Maddie being taken away by GM.Maddie having been removed from a nearby apartment but not 5a.

Or it could have been Kate discovering a deceased Maddie behind the sofa in 5A.
But Mrs Fenn heard nothing from the apartment below till 10.30 .The logic being 5a had been cleaned by now and MBM was dead and elsewhere on the evening of 3rd may. imo

But you are ignoring the statement of J.R.Salcedas, who described a terrifying scream. If we're to form a picture of what happened that evening from the statements of independent witnesses, we can't pick and choose which ones to include.

by Cristobell 05.06.14 23:10

HelenMeg wrote:
Cristobell wrote:
roy rovers wrote:But Christobell why at that time? Unless as you suggest it was a hastily arranged Plan B after Plan A had come unstuck. Which begs the question what was Plan A?
It may be that arrangements for the body to be moved earlier in the evening went awry. Thrown perhaps by Gerry bumping into Jez? Why was Jane (I carried her like this) Tanner hanging around in the street before all the shenanigans kicked off? Jez saw her, she was dressed in purple. Was she a look out? Was she waiting for someone? The shutters weren't jemmied, so who failed to do their job? Kate had to open the window herself and the story they told their relatives did not fit with the scene found by the police.

Imo, things started to go wrong as the evening progressed - anything could have thrown their plans adrift, from someone being held up, to a couple having a drink on balcony overlooking 5A, or a teenager sneaking outside for a crafty cigarette. Perhaps they waiting for a phone call? Whatever happened, I doubt running through the streets with a deceased child was part of the original plan.
I cant believe that G would carry a dead child through the streets of PdL over his shoulder. I can imagine him carrying a dead child concealed in a sports bag. I suppose for me, I believe the dead child was long gone by 10pm that evening..

I think we sometimes give the McCanns too much credit for their planning and organisational skills, but if we examine the story carefully we can see how slapdash the whole thing is. We can only begin to imagine how high emotions must have been running in the aftermath of Madeleine's death and the terrible decision to get rid of the body. It would have been rational to cover the body with a blanket or even to have placed it in a bag, but was he thinking rationally at the time?

by whatliesbehindthesofa 05.06.14 23:19

Cristobell wrote:
I think we sometimes give the McCanns too much credit for their planning and organisational skills, but if we examine the story carefully we can see how slapdash the whole thing is. We can only begin to imagine how high emotions must have been running in the aftermath of Madeleine's death and the terrible decision to get rid of the body. It would have been rational to cover the body with a blanket or even to have placed it in a bag, but was he thinking rationally at the time?

Add to this that it is an argument from incredulity, a logical fallacy. Just because something is hard to imagine doesn't mean that it is impossible. People often say things like "I can't believe that eyes evolved without a designer", but it doesn't prove that there must have been a designer.

And I don't find it hard to imagine Gerry carrying a dead Madeleine. Looking at the route he must have taken if he was indeed the subject of the Smith sighting, I wonder if he intended to dispose of the body in that wasteland just to the west of the Ocean Club apartments. I've used Google Streetview to simulate walking that route, and although the images were taken in 2009, at that point there was boarding all around the patch of land. He may have decided that he would have to chance a quick walk down the road, turn right towards the scrubland now being searched, and unfortunately for him he bumped into the Smith family. He would only have been searching for a hiding place for only a couple of minutes at most. And after the Smith sighting, another couple of minutes (or less) and he would have been in the scrubland, at the exact place where Scotland Yard are digging.

I'm not saying that this happened. I'm saying that I can believe that it did. And whether I or anyone else believes it or not, it is entirely possible. Evidence has not rendered it impossible.

by cassius 05.06.14 23:37

whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
cassius wrote:
whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
cassius wrote:
He couldn,t wait till the early hours as they had to be in the tapas bar for the abduction idea to work.

The scream may have been KM seeing a now deceased Maddie being taken away by GM.Maddie having been removed from a nearby apartment but not 5a.

Or it could have been Kate discovering a deceased Maddie behind the sofa in 5A.
But Mrs Fenn heard nothing from the apartment below till 10.30 .The logic being 5a had been cleaned by now and MBM was dead and elsewhere on the evening of 3rd may. imo

But you are ignoring the statement of J.R.Salcedas, who described a terrifying scream. If we're to form a picture of what happened that evening from the statements of independent witnesses, we can't pick and choose which ones to include.

So how does his evidence conflict with mrs fenn,s?He saw GM before 10pm and possibly heard KM scream.

The scream could have come from anywhere and could have been contrived.

by russiandoll 05.06.14 23:47

Here is my original list of similarities:

1. An unaccompanied male -
2. Carrying a child and having no push-chair-
3. The child was blonde-
4. The child was a girl
5. The child was barefoot
6. The child was wearing light-coloured/pink pyjamas
7. She looked about four years old
8. She was being held on the man’s left side
9. She didn’t have a blanket or other covering
10. The men did not look like tourists
11. They were wearing a dark jacket
12. They were wearing light-coloured trousers
13. They were both about 1.75m to 1.8m tall (5’ 9” – 5’ 10”)
14. They were both aged 35-40
15. They were of average build
16. They were spotted within 600 yards of each other
17. In neither case could the man’s face be seen.

I agree that there are many similarities and have voted other reasons, because all of the above are consistent with Gerry McCann realising the implications of the Smith sighting and suddenly needing an alibi for the time the balloon went up, when he was missing.

Jez had been an independent witness but far too early, so poor Jane was called upon to describe her Tannerman of 9,15, who had to look very like Smithman, but not a Gerry double, so there was a tweak or two [ hair was one iirc, will check], face not described in detail.. well she wouldn't, would she?

The 2 had to morph into each other, it was the police's job to wonder why an abductor was walking about with a child for 45 minutes.

Jane didn't mention the buttons on the trousers, even though she saw Tannerman side-on. Managed to get the flowers on the pj bottoms in the dark, though.

So we agree on the similarities Tony but not for why they exist.

by whatliesbehindthesofa 05.06.14 23:49

Can we account for Gerry's whereabouts after the alert was raised?

According to various statements from the PJ files:

- Waiter J.R.Salcedas sees Gerry "running to the pool and to the children's play area in the Tapas zone as if looking for someone. It immediately hit me that after talking to the older woman, that the little girl had not been found. I offered to alert the workers at the Millennium Restaurant and the man agreed. He then left again running to continue searching. I believe that this was between 21H30 and 22H00 but do not remember with certainty."

- Receptionist Ocean Club H. J. S. L. was on duty and was contacted by a member of staff from the Tapas Restaurant between 21.30 and 22.00 who informed him that the daughter of some guests who were dining there had disappeared. He immediately contacted the GNR in Lagos, shortly after this the child's father and John Hill arrived at the reception and he phoned the GNR again.

- After 22:00 R. R. S. B. and his wife were still sitting on the veranda in the B. family apartment. They heard noises downstairs and afterwards found out that a child had disappeared. Gerald was seen and spoken to by N.B. and R.R.S.B. They heard him calling for Madeleine when they were sitting on N.B.'s balcony, not far from the McCann's apartment. They both went down to talk to Gerald and helped in the search.

(The above must be Neil Berry and family. I cannot find Neil Berry's statement in the PJ files, only his rogatory interview, and that interview only refers back to the statement, giving no information. Also, the time is imprecise, 'after 22:00' could be any time).

And then nothing about Gerry until-

- Just after 22.30 upstairs neighbor Mrs. F. heard the hysterical shouts from a female person, calling out "we have let her down" which she repeated several times, quite upset. Mrs Fenn then saw that it was the mother of little Madeleine who was shouting furiously. Upon leaning over the terrace, after having seen the mother, Mrs. F. asked the father, Gerry, what was happening to which he replied that a small girl had been abducted. When asked, she replied that she did not leave her apartment, just spoke to Gerry from her balcony, which had a view over the terrace of the floor below. She found it strange that Gerry when said that a girl had been abducted, he did not mention that it was his daughter and that he did not mention any other scenarios. At that moment she offered Gerry help, saying that he could use her phone to contact the authorities, to which he replied that this had already been done. It was just after 22.30.

Now, I don't know about anybody else, but my expectations are that there should be many statements where people describe encountering the father of a missing child.

Add to this, that one of the handwritten timelines suggests that Gerry was not present when it was written. It says

Jerry 9-10 - 9-15 in tv room + all well
? did he check

So, Gerry was witnessed searching for Madeleine between 21:30 - 22:00 by multiple people. Then a witness hears a terrifying scream that he attributes to Kate, and Gerry goes off the radar until Mrs Fenn speaks to him at 22:30.

Among other things, this also suggests that the alarm was raised earlier than was claimed.

The witness statement of Neil Berry is of great importance but it doesn't appear to be in the PJ files, please do correct me if I'm wrong.

by cassius 06.06.14 0:05

Still can,t see why you say KM screams in 5a when she comes across MBM.Mrs Fenn would have mentioned it if it had happened in the flat below her.

by whatliesbehindthesofa 06.06.14 0:08

cassius wrote:
Still can,t see why you say KM screams in 5a when she comes across MBM.Mrs Fenn would have mentioned it if it had happened in the flat below her.

Who knows? My mother isn't as old as Mrs Fenn was back then* but she can sleep through anything. (*Yeah, I know she has sadly passed away since.)

It's my opinion cassius, I'm not here to convince anyone else.

More important to me is that Gerry disappeared off the radar for a significant amount of time, and could have been missing at the time of the Smith sighting.

SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Why are there 17 similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?