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SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

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Why are there 17 similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by plebgate on 21.10.14 13:34

Yes, that's a possibility Doug D, but if "the walker" had said that his child had gone missing then the police would not have left it at that, they would have taken immediate action and gone back to the apartment to see what it was all about?

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by SixMillionQuid on 21.10.14 13:41

@plebgate wrote:Yes, that's a possibility Doug D, but if "the walker" had said that his child had gone missing then the police would not have left it at that, they would have taken immediate action and gone back to the apartment to see what it was all about?

And the police report would have noted

"We encountered the male parent with a child sometime after 10pm stating his wife was looking for their missing daughter".

The simulated abduction would been destroyed right there.

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by Doug D on 21.10.14 13:47

That might have actually helped them out!
 
They’d have had 45 minutes less to rip up colouring books, phone family , delete texts, sow confusion, trash crime scene, etc etc.
 
All the anomalies that have subsequently been challenged.

eta. Six Million Quid:

At the time they still had Tannerman.

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by SixMillionQuid on 21.10.14 13:58

@Doug D wrote:
At the time they still had Tannerman.

Then why would GM need to be walking around PdL? Tannerman is going in the wrong direction of the simulated abduction.

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by Doug D on 21.10.14 14:07

Who knows?
 
Just to add to the confusion maybe, if either sighting or the underlying events actually happened?

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by Tony Bennett on 21.10.14 14:55

@HelenMeg wrote:
In my opinion, based on everything I read and also trying to put myself in the situation which I believe occurred that night ( a group of people, IMO, staging an abduction scenario, full of adrenaline, thinking on their feet perhaps at times, making rash decisions possibly and certainly making mistakes), I think that GM took a child and wished to be seen as a potential abductor in the streets of Praia de Luz. I dont think he wished to be scrutinised by any witnesses - simply observed from a distance. This , he believed, on that night would ensure that the wider public believed than an abduction had taken place. It was a stupid decision, perhaps, in hindsight. I believe that they made mistakes and this was one of them. I believe it is human nature under that scenario to make errors - and therefore to me it is highly credible.  I perhaps would have done this too, in that scenario.  'How can we make people believe in an abduction? Lets have one of us or two of us carry a child as if we are abducting it... otherwise who the hell will believe us? '

In the heat of the moment that is what I think happened. But it backfired. IMO.

But a lot of us here have differing opinions as to what happened - whether Smithman existed etc etc etc. That is what I believe, but am not too concerned if noone else here believes it. It is one opinion amongst many!!
Thank you very much for for your reply.

I may of course be wrong about 'Smithman' but I have put together pages of evidence and reasoned analysis of the facts as to why there is cause for doubt about the claimed 'sighting'.

You were quite clear in accepting Textusa's beliefs and indeed you've repeated them above.

This is the bit I struggle with: where you say: 'based on everything I have read'.

Would you be kind enough please to share with us the specific things you've read, the specific links and facts you rely on, the EVIDENCE, for believing that the Smiths saw GERRY MCCANN carrying ONE OF JANE TANNER'S CHILDREN at 10.00pm on the evening of 3 May.

I am lost.

And in terms of evidence, what reliance do you place on the evidence of a man who waits for 13 days to report a sighting of a man with a child when the whole world and its media are publicising he day after day, and who then takes 11 days (9 to 20 September) to report that based on the way he was carrying his child on his left shoulder he was '60% to 80% sure that it was Gerry McCann he'd seen over 4 months earlier - and after he and his fellow family members admitted that they'd seen him only for a few seconds at most, in the dark, with weak street lighting, and all agreed on 26 May that they would never be able to recognise him again if they saw him?

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by pennylane on 21.10.14 15:09

The McCanns had been at PDL almost a week, playing tennis, taking the kids to the creche, eating breakfast, lunch, and dinner in various places, intermingling with workers and tourists alike. 

There's no way on earth Gerry McCann would risk scurrying through the village with a live child for the sole purpose of being seen, but hopefully not recognised, at the time a 3 year old was allegedly being abducted.   The mere idea is completely and utterly implausible (imho).

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by j.rob on 21.10.14 16:09

Surely if you wanted to EITHER remove a child from an apartment without being seen OR remove a child's body from an apartment without raising any suspicion, you would not be walking around carrying that child?

It just doesn't make much sense.

Especially in the manner that Tanner-man was supposed to be carrying a child - in an awkward way across arms so the the child's face would be exposed. I mean, that is just nuts. At the very least, surely, you would make sure the child's face was hidden? You would hold the child against you to conceal the child's identity? At the very least.

So Tanner-man is absurd. That TM resorted to Tanner-man at all suggests, to me, that this was a very last-minute panic reaction that had not been thought out properly. (Jane Tanner in a complete panic covering up for Russell O'Brien's involvement in what happened?

Smith-man - although not quite as nutty as Tanner-man also seems  implausible. Walking along a relatively long road lit (albeit badly) by street-lights at a time of night when there are likely to be people walking back from restaurants or going to bars? Again, not covering the child. Although at least Smith-man is carrying the child is a realistic manner and the face is not exposed to view.

I don't buy Tanner-man (but then no-one does not even Andy Redwood! lol!)  And I don't buy Smith-man as Gerry carrying a deceased Madeleine. If Madeleine was dead by Thursday evening (as detective Amaral believes) then TM would have found a much less suspicious and obvious way of removing her body from the apartment (or from where-ever she was).

For instance, in a sports bag. Or possibly a buggy. Or a laundry carrier. Or something that would attract no particular suspicion if it was seen being carried or pushed around as it would be a normal sight in a holiday resort. 

I also rule out Smith-man as being Gerry being caught by the Smiths in the act of taking an alive Madeleine away somewhere and then pretending that she had been abducted or kidnapped by a stranger.  In other words, being caught red-handed in a faked abduction plot.

Again, this makes no sense. For much the same reasons as why it wouldn't have been Gerry carrying a deceased Madeleine. He might as well have put a stocking over his head and be carrying a swag-bag.

Again, if Madeleine was still alive when removed from the resort but the McCanns were complicit in this but wanted to conceal this, then surely they would do their utmost to conceal this? Not have Gerry wandering along a nearby road at the precise time that the 'abductor' is supposed to have fled? That's nuts, imo. Presumably they would have removed Madeleine prior to the alarm being raised? Well before the arrival of police. And they would do it in a manner which would attract as little suspicion as possible. If Madeleine had been heavily sedated she could have been put into a sports bag or buggy I suppose. 

There are a couple of scenarios which I think are possible for Smith-man, albeit unlikely.

One is that there was a last minute major panic. Madeleine was very ill/injured/abused and required emergency treatment and Gerry or someone who looked like Gerry ran off carrying Madeleine to get help. 

This scenario is possible whether or not there was much pre-planning. If there had been a plan to stage a faked abduction that week (possibly even planned prior to the holiday) then this scenario would to some extent explain why it all seems like such a botch-job. The time-lines going wrong. Different accounts of where everyone was. And so on.

If there had been no pre-planning to stage a faked abduction at all prior to that week, then a straightforward accident in the apartment doesn't really go far enough to explain why such an elaborate hoax was staged (albeit incredibly badly). Why go to such extreme lengths to cover up an accident?

In my opinion, it must have been MORE than just a tragic accident like banging her head. TM must also have have wanted at all cost to avoid Madeleine (and possibly the twins too) being treated in hospital. Why? Possible explanations: to cover up sedation or other drug use; to cover up abuse; to cover up medical negligence (and these are not mutually exclusive of course.)

I'm going to take a look at the route taken by the early sniffer dogs. Which might provide some clues.

And look up the threads on the blue tennis bag.

Just a theory, as always.

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by Hicks on 21.10.14 16:51

@joyce1938 wrote:I am not certain ,but I thought the cleaning must have been sometime after the night she was taken? There were  quite a no . of people in and out of said apt. as soon as the call went out .they have taken her /? so hairs and dne could been left by a no . of folk ? before the pj got there ?just a thought and memory / was the dna of friends and police looked at ?  difficult to know if anyone else could have entrered that apartment  not that I believe she was kidnapped. joyce1938
joyce you are probably right about the 'lntense' cleaning being done after Madeleine was taken. I still maintain though that  apartment 5 was set up well before the alarm.
Madeleine's bed for one example. That looked so staged. Imagine going to find your child gone from her bed, the last place you saw her. Wouldn't you rip back the bedclothes in disbelief, looking for some clue like blood, vomit, anything?

Another example. The twins were not in that bedroom, they were hastily returned to their cots, the cots that had no sheets.
Quite possibly sedated so that there would be no interruption to deal with.

I think that the children's bedroom was empty, until Kate raised the alarm.

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by HelenMeg on 21.10.14 17:56

@Tony Bennett wrote:
@HelenMeg wrote:
In my opinion, based on everything I read and also trying to put myself in the situation which I believe occurred that night ( a group of people, IMO, staging an abduction scenario, full of adrenaline, thinking on their feet perhaps at times, making rash decisions possibly and certainly making mistakes), I think that GM took a child and wished to be seen as a potential abductor in the streets of Praia de Luz. I dont think he wished to be scrutinised by any witnesses - simply observed from a distance. This , he believed, on that night would ensure that the wider public believed than an abduction had taken place. It was a stupid decision, perhaps, in hindsight. I believe that they made mistakes and this was one of them. I believe it is human nature under that scenario to make errors - and therefore to me it is highly credible.  I perhaps would have done this too, in that scenario.  'How can we make people believe in an abduction? Lets have one of us or two of us carry a child as if we are abducting it... otherwise who the hell will believe us? '

In the heat of the moment that is what I think happened. But it backfired. IMO.

But a lot of us here have differing opinions as to what happened - whether Smithman existed etc etc etc. That is what I believe, but am not too concerned if noone else here believes it. It is one opinion amongst many!!
Thank you very much for for your reply.

I may of course be wrong about 'Smithman' but I have put together pages of evidence and reasoned analysis of the facts as to why there is cause for doubt about the claimed 'sighting'.

You were quite clear in accepting Textusa's beliefs and indeed you've repeated them above.

This is the bit I struggle with: where you say: 'based on everything I have read'.

Would you be kind enough please to share with us the specific things you've read, the specific links and facts you rely on, the EVIDENCE, for believing that the Smiths saw GERRY MCCANN carrying ONE OF JANE TANNER'S CHILDREN at 10.00pm on the evening of 3 May.

I am lost.

And in terms of evidence, what reliance do you place on the evidence of a man who waits for 13 days to report a sighting of a man with a child when the whole world and its media are publicising he day after day, and who then takes 11 days (9 to 20 September) to report that based on the way he was carrying his child on his left shoulder he was '60% to 80% sure that it was Gerry McCann he'd seen over 4 months earlier - and after he and his fellow family members admitted that they'd seen him only for a few seconds at most, in the dark, with weak street lighting, and all agreed on 26 May that they would never be able to recognise him again if they saw him?
Hi Tony

Firstly, I am a fan of yours - for the work you put in and for the lengths you go to to back up your beliefs. I am a fan of Textusa for the same reasons and admit that until I read her blog then my beliefs regarding Smithman were not formed in any shape or form.  
I have read so many different sources on this case and cant hope to recall them all. But I really dont want to convince anyone to believe what I believe. I dont want to attempt to win people over to my belief because I am too lazy to try and back up my belief with evidence and research. My beliefs regarding Smithman, that were formed after reading various Textusa blog posts on Smithman, fitted in with my overall understanding of the case from having read endless media reports, internet sources, 3 arguidos forum, Mirror forum etc.  Importantly for me, I am comfortable with my beliefs about Smithman. I like observing how people behave and why. GM walking around with a live child to back up the abduction is feasible. It is how I believe he would act under pressure, trying to control the show. It was a mistake.
I am comfortable that the Smiths took a long time to come forward.  It is feasible to me that they needed prompting. It just is. I cant pretend otherwise. I might have taken that long too, depending on various factors or circumstances.  
 However, what I believe and what stands up in court are different matters.   You make a very good case for your beliefs and I applaud that. But for whatever reason, I still believe what I have outlined in previous posts. But as I keep saying, it is not important to me to try to convince anyone else here.

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by Tony Bennett on 21.10.14 18:28

@HelenMeg wrote:
Hi Tony

Firstly, I am a fan of yours - for the work you put in and for the lengths you go to to back up your beliefs.

I am a fan of Textusa for the same reasons and admit that until I read her blog then my beliefs regarding Smithman were not formed in any shape or form.  

I have read so many different sources on this case and can't hope to recall them all. But I really don't want to convince anyone to believe what I believe.

I don't want to attempt to win people over to my belief because I am too lazy to try and back up my belief with evidence and research.

My beliefs regarding Smithman, that were formed after reading various Textusa blog posts on Smithman, fitted in with my overall understanding of the case from having read endless media reports, internet sources, 3 arguidos forum, Mirror forum etc. 

Importantly for me, I am comfortable with my beliefs about Smithman. I like observing how people behave and why.

GM walking around with a live child to back up the abduction is feasible. It is how I believe he would act under pressure, trying to control the show. It was a mistake.

I am comfortable that the Smiths took a long time to come forward.  It is feasible to me that they needed prompting. It just is. I can't pretend otherwise. I might have taken that long too, depending on various factors or circumstances.  

However, what I believe and what stands up in court are different matters.   You make a very good case for your beliefs and I applaud that.

But for whatever reason, I still believe what I have outlined in previous posts. But as I keep saying, it is not important to me to try to convince anyone else here.
OK, many thanks for your detailed and honest reply.

I think the key words are "GM walking around with a live child to back up the abduction is feasible".

I think we will certainly have to part company on whether this theory is remotely 'feasible'.

But you have at least been candid and admitted that the only evidence you have for it is Martin Smith saying, 11 days later, that he was '60% to 80%' sure it was Gerry McCann that he had seen in the dark over four-and-a-half months previously - by the way he was carrying his child down the aeroplane steps. No evidence whatsoever that he was carrying Jane Tanner's daughter.

It's just that in trying to establish what has happened in this convoluted case, just like in any other, we need to follow where the evidence leads and not go off on flights of fancy just because they are considered 'feasible'

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by j.rob on 22.10.14 12:04

In my opinion, it must have been MORE than just a tragic accident like banging her head. TM must also have have wanted at all cost to avoid Madeleine (and possibly the twins too) being treated in hospital. Why? Possible explanations: to cover up sedation or other drug use; to cover up abuse; to cover up medical negligence (and these are not mutually exclusive of course.)


--------


Just wanted to add to this. Another possible explanation for covering up what happened could be that it was very important to hide Madeleine's medical records/family circumstances.


Explanations for this could be: there was some kind of medical experimentation lurking in the background; there was medical negligence; she was 'at risk'; there was something unusual in the family circumstances that they did not want revealed; parents did not have full custody etc, etc.


One of Detective Amaral's questions that Kate refused to answer: did you ever consider handing over the care of Madeleine to relatives?

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by j.rob on 22.10.14 12:10

@Hicks wrote:
@joyce1938 wrote:I am not certain ,but I thought the cleaning must have been sometime after the night she was taken? There were  quite a no . of people in and out of said apt. as soon as the call went out .they have taken her /? so hairs and dne could been left by a no . of folk ? before the pj got there ?just a thought and memory / was the dna of friends and police looked at ?  difficult to know if anyone else could have entrered that apartment  not that I believe she was kidnapped. joyce1938
joyce you are probably right about the 'lntense' cleaning being done after Madeleine was taken. I still maintain though that  apartment 5 was set up well before the alarm.
Madeleine's bed for one example. That looked so staged. Imagine going to find your child gone from her bed, the last place you saw her. Wouldn't you rip back the bedclothes in disbelief, looking for some clue like blood, vomit, anything?

Another example. The twins were not in that bedroom, they were hastily returned to their cots, the cots that had no sheets.
Quite possibly sedated so that there would be no interruption to deal with.

I think that the children's bedroom was empty, until Kate raised the alarm.

Yes, agree about the 'staged' bedroom scene.You would definitely pull the covers right back. Looking for any clues at all like clothing left and, as you say, blood, vomit. Other stains. Any clues at all as to what might have happened.

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by joyce1938 on 22.10.14 12:54

I would seem that on the actual night she was taken, was not the cleaning night at all ,I think it was after that week the real thorough clean . I have read the pj did all the normal searching and checking when arrived that night ,and all the extras were or had been inside apartment ,so the real question is ,what day did the completescrub take place ,there seems something out of kilter here and cant make up mind why ? Was it not a few weeks later there had to have been deep cleaning done ?If anyone can tell me what to look at I will gladly do so .just feels like something missing about this ,would it have to do with ,at first  the parents were not being looked at ? joyce1938

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Re: SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

Post by Guest on 24.10.14 22:20

The question of the thorough clean and when it could have taken place has been raised elsewhere today.

I had always assumed, like Joyce, that any 'toothbrush-intense' scrubbing took place after the first few days, a perfunctory one being done on the night before the police arrived.

But I learned tonight that the police shut off the apartment in the early hours and the McCanns were obliged to bunk in with the Paynes. They returned briefly the next morning to collect belongings.

Does anyone know if they had further prolonged access to the flat before forensic searches were deployed?

Because if the intense clean-up couldn't have happened after the night of 3rd - and the flat was spotless and dna free, of course - then it must have occured before they left for dinner. Which would indicate the occurrence of death earlier on 3rd or in the week.

As ever, just questions and theories being mused upon.

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