Re: Holiday weather

by mysterion Thu Jan 02, 2014 2:11 pm

When our 2 children were between 1 and 5, we used to go to the Med on holidays. We either went in May or June avoiding the Whit holiday break. We could afford to go at this time yet we didn`t have the earnings of 2 doctors. No way would we have opted for the end of April.

Even if the McCanns were broke, it doesn`t explain why the other doctors chose it. IMO, the McCanns had to be there for an important reason which has been kept quiet. Probably business. Might explain why they didn`t use creche faciities in the evening to save money.

by The Snapper Fri Jan 03, 2014 1:33 pm

I posted a lot on this subject back in the days of the Mirror forum

the weather history for Faro is here: Faro history

you can change the dates to get the whole week

The key points concerning this thread are as follows

There was some rain on the Wednesday morning, but the afternoon was dry, so Dianne Webster and others were spot on

When the 'last photo' was said to have been taken, the temperature was 19C and there were only scattered clouds (ie mainly sunny) but it was breezy (25-30k), nearly 20mph

in a suntrap out of the wind this would feel warm. In the wind one would expect long hair to be blowing around. The wind was WSW, so going from left to right in the photo (they are facing south at the small circular pool if you look at Google Earth). Are there indications of wind in the photo?

A gust might even have blown Maddie's white hat off, or Amelie's pink one with the very wide brim

All week the temperatures hadn't been bad but the keen wind would have taken the edge off them, hence the perception that it was colder than it was. There were variable amounts of cloud

At the time of the alleged abduction the wind was down to around 15k and the temperature was 15-17C, so cool but not as cold as has been suggested in some places

The wind was from a WNW direction, so blowing roughly across 5A rather than through it

by The Snapper Fri Jan 03, 2014 2:50 pm

When the last photo was taken, the wind was high force 4 or low force 5. Does the photo reflect that?

WIND COMFORT STUDIES
Extended Land Beaufort Scale showing wind effects on people.
Beaufort Description Wind Speed at Effect on people
0 Calm
1 Light air No noticeable wind
2 Light breeze Wind felt on face
3 Gentle breeze Hair disturbed, clothing flaps, newspaper difficult to read
4 Moderate breeze Raises dust and loose paper, hair disarranged
5 Fresh breeze Force of wind felt on body, danger of stumbling when entering a windy zone
6 Strong breeze Umbrellas used with difficulty, hair blown straight, difficult to walk steadily, sideways wind force about equal to forwards walking force, wind noise on ears unpleasant

also see here Beaufort scale effect on trees

the last photo is here Last Photo

by bobbin Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:48 pm

The Snapper wrote:When the last photo was taken, the wind was high force 4 or low force 5. Does the photo reflect that?

WIND COMFORT STUDIES
Extended Land Beaufort Scale showing wind effects on people.
Beaufort Description Wind Speed at Effect on people
0 Calm
1 Light air No noticeable wind
2 Light breeze Wind felt on face
3 Gentle breeze Hair disturbed, clothing flaps, newspaper difficult to read
4 Moderate breeze Raises dust and loose paper, hair disarranged
5 Fresh breeze Force of wind felt on body, danger of stumbling when entering a windy zone
6 Strong breeze Umbrellas used with difficulty, hair blown straight, difficult to walk steadily, sideways wind force about equal to forwards walking force, wind noise on ears unpleasant

also see here Beaufort scale effect on trees

the last photo is here Last Photo

It was obviously very windy indeed, because the reflection in Gerry's sunglasses has been blown a full 90 degrees upwards. big grin

Amelie's hat isn't being blown off because she's a pretty little girl, and the wind lulled just at that particular moment.
Maddie's hair shows no sign of movement because she wasn't pasted into that particular 'family' photo until sometime after the curtains had whooshed through the open but closed window that night and slammed the bedroom door shut. sarcastic

by tiny Fri Jan 03, 2014 7:23 pm

Oh bobbin, that did make laugh Holiday weather - Page 2 110921

by The Snapper Fri Jan 03, 2014 8:44 pm

If you blow the photo up, you can see strands of hair blowing across Maddie's face, in the right direction too

Holiday weather - Page 2 Madeleine-McCann-1895656

Holiday weather - Page 2 Madeleine-McCann-1895656

by Lance De Boils Fri Jan 03, 2014 8:50 pm

The most windy day was the Monday. It was really quite blustery.

Maybe Kate is 'remembering' things from Monday and telling them as though they occurred on Thursday.

Far easier to lie when all you're doing is 'mixing up' your days.

The warmest/sunniest days were Sat and Sun.

by The Snapper Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:12 pm

Depending upon how scattered the clouds were on May 3, the photo could be consistent with being taken early afternoon that day as stated (the sun is high in the sky and the wind is roughly from the west)

It would also be consistent with the weather on April 28 and 29 (sunny and westerly wind) but maybe not April 30, May 1 and 2 (westerly wind but probably too cloudy)

Of course, the photo could have been taken during a brief sunny spell even on a mainly cloudy day, but you probably wouldn't sit by the pool on a cloudy breezy day when the temperature is 17-18C

The wind was roughly westerly (the direction indicated by the strands of hair) all week; but the Saturday (28) and Sunday (29) would be the only realistic alternatives to the Thursday

by bobbin Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:21 pm

The Snapper wrote:If you blow the photo up, you can see strands of hair blowing across Maddie's face, in the right direction too

What sort of a wind is it that can selectively blow a few tiny thin strands across a face yet leave all the rest of the hair hanging downwards and unaffected ?
Ah, I know the same selective wind that twisted Gerry's sunglasses reflection on the left lens only but not the right lens. big grin

by The Snapper Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:25 pm

Well the question is: does that appear to indicate a lighter wind than the high force 4 (18mph) during the early afternoon on May 3?

by Guest Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:32 pm

Clocker wrote:
I agree and also what I find intriguing is the fact that most of the people holidaying there were professional 2 parent families, each with 2 children (excluding the Mccanns) usually comprising of a girl aged 3 years and a baby under 1 year, usually a boy. And according to Bridget O'Donnell all the girls blonde haired. in fact Bridget stipulated there was 10 little 3 year old girls in their group to boss the 2 boys around.
That's my first ever post on any forum but I've been reading here for months. I'm impressed by the amount of research that people undertake.
I do wish there was an optional 'like' button for each post, there has been so many times I've wanted to press one :)

This is of course of no relevance whatsoever to the subject under discussion, but just as a matter of interest, these are the conclusions of a very recent U.S. study into the typical profile of 'swingers' in the United States:

QUOTE:

The demographic characteristics of the respondents. The typical swinger in this study was 39 years old, had two years of college education, had been married 1.5 times, was in a current marriage lasting 10.5 years, many had children, most of them under 5 years old, and had been involved in swinging for 5 years. The subjects were predominately white at 90.4 percent of the sample. African-Americans were 4.1 percent of those sampled, Hispanics were 3.0 percent, and 1.5 percent indicated "other". Gender differences were minimal on all of these characteristics. Included in the sample were ten physicians, fifteen attorneys, sixty-five upper level managers or owners of businesses, twenty-seven engineers, twenty-two teachers, forty health professionals including nurses, and people representing a variety of other occupations including skill blue collar workers, office personnel, computer technicians and artists… The results, then, suggest that swingers in the sample are the white, middle-class, middle-aged, church-going segment of the population reported in earlier studies...

UNQUOTE

by bobbin Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:35 pm

The Snapper wrote:Well the question is: does that appear to indicate a lighter wind than the high force 4 (18mph) during the early afternoon on May 3?

I agree totally with you.
The wind evident in the photo is of a very slight breeze if that.
Thank you for finding and showing the weather conditions, these are the details which can call a photograph out as fiction since the weather conditions for that day (recorded official facts) do not correlate with what the photo shows.
clapping

by The Snapper Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:56 pm

On April 28 (Saturday) it was quite a calm morning, increasing to 11mph between 12 and 1, then breezy after 1

On April 29 (Sunday) the morning was calm with the wind picking up between 11 and 12, then breezy after 12

On May 3 (Thursday) the wind picked up steadily from mid morning and was breezy after 1

The photo shadows are consistent with it being taken between 12 and 2, the sun is almost overhead

The camera clock said 1.29pm but we are told that it was wrong by an hour, so should be 2.29pm

Are the shadows too short for 2.29pm? It was pretty windy at that time too

by Guest Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:18 pm

There was NO time difference between Portugal and the U.K. .....!

Looking at Gerry's T-shirt [the same he had on the bus], the beautiful weather of the first one/two days AND [my female hunch], Madeleine wearing her "very special holiday clothes": this is a genuine picture, but NOT of May 3 ...

by juliet Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:29 pm

Was the weather on that holday ever hot enough to cause Gerry to look so red and sweaty and Madeleine to seem slightly sunburned?

by Guest Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:31 pm

juliet wrote:Was the weather on that holday ever hot enough to cause Gerry to look so red and sweaty and Madeleine to seem slightly sunburned?

Wasn't it warm in the UK though? I'm sure they mentioned that they would have had better weather if they'd stayed at home.

by worriedmum Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:52 am

juliet wrote:Was the weather on that holday ever hot enough to cause Gerry to look so red and sweaty and Madeleine to seem slightly sunburned?

And don't forget that Madeleine appears to have sunburn on the tennis photo-so the weather must have been sunny earlier in the holiday?

by suzyjohnson Sat Jan 04, 2014 5:10 am

worriedmum wrote:
juliet wrote:Was the weather on that holday ever hot enough to cause Gerry to look so red and sweaty and Madeleine to seem slightly sunburned?
And don't forget that Madeleine appears to have sunburn on the tennis photo-so the weather must have been sunny earlier in the holiday?

Or, as Clay Regazzoni says, was in hot in the Uk before the holiday?

Clay Regazzoni on Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:31 pm

Wasn't it warm in the UK though? I'm sure they mentioned that they would have had better weather if they'd stayed at home.

by columbostogeys Sat Jan 04, 2014 5:35 am

Daisy wrote:
mysterion wrote:Could never understand why wealthy parents would go to the Algarve for a family holiday at the end of April. I certainly wouldn`t. But maybe they were there for another reason. GM said that he wasn`t there for fun. Out of season is conference time at upmarket hotels.
Me neither Mysterion. This aspect continues to intrigue me. It seems odd that there were so many wealthy people that chose Praia Da Luz that fateful week. Some of them extremely wealthy and very well connected. And maybe it's just coincidence that so many of the other guests belonged to the medical community. I don't know.

All the wealthy people I know tend to be miserly lol. One of my best friends is loaded and buys everything from car boots or second hand. They never go on expensive holidays. Thats why they are wealthy....

I actually think NOT all the familes had a lot of money and to be honest I dont think the McCanns were that wealthy they didnt even have a twin buggy....

by columbostogeys Sat Jan 04, 2014 5:47 am

juliet wrote:Was the weather on that holday ever hot enough to cause Gerry to look so red and sweaty and Madeleine to seem slightly sunburned?

Gerry is quite red on his elbow, and the child is quite sunburnt on her arm. Considering she spent most of her days in a creche.....and also surprised no SUNBLOCK or protective clothing....that is sunburn on her arm is it not? So was it taken on the 2nd day of the holiday....or was it another holiday. I do find her looking just a tad younger then 4 in this photo...then the tennis one she seems taller and more grown up...confused I am...

by columbostogeys Sat Jan 04, 2014 5:54 am

bobbin wrote:
The Snapper wrote:When the last photo was taken, the wind was high force 4 or low force 5. Does the photo reflect that?

WIND COMFORT STUDIES
Extended Land Beaufort Scale showing wind effects on people.
Beaufort Description Wind Speed at Effect on people
0 Calm
1 Light air No noticeable wind
2 Light breeze Wind felt on face
3 Gentle breeze Hair disturbed, clothing flaps, newspaper difficult to read
4 Moderate breeze Raises dust and loose paper, hair disarranged
5 Fresh breeze Force of wind felt on body, danger of stumbling when entering a windy zone
6 Strong breeze Umbrellas used with difficulty, hair blown straight, difficult to walk steadily, sideways wind force about equal to forwards walking force, wind noise on ears unpleasant

also see here Beaufort scale effect on trees

the last photo is here Last Photo

It was obviously very windy indeed, because the reflection in Gerry's sunglasses has been blown a full 90 degrees upwards.
Amelie's hat isn't being blown off because she's a pretty little girl, and the wind lulled just at that particular moment.
Maddie's hair shows no sign of movement because she wasn't pasted into that particular 'family' photo until sometime after the curtains had whooshed through the open but closed window that night and slammed the bedroom door shut.

IF it was so windy it caused whooshing of curtains and doors to slam shut, it must have been FREEZING outside eating their meal brrrrrrrrrr....on the CW programmes etc, it shows JT just strolling along not been blown about with wind.....

I have my bedroom window open everyday and to get whoosing of curtains it has to be gale force outside.

The thing is anyway, rewind.....

The bedroom door is open.
The window and shutter is open.

You walk into the apartment through the sliding patio door, surely the BEDROOM door would have slammed shut THEN, not after the fact.

by The Snapper Sat Jan 04, 2014 9:28 am

At 10pm on 3 May 2007, the temperature was 17C and the wind was 11mph blowing across the apartment rather than through it. I accept that walls etc can create subwinds going in different directions, but 11mph is a moderate wind compared with the 18mph in early afternoon

I will leave it to you to decide how suitable those conditions are for (a) dining out and (b) blowing doors shut

by The Snapper Sat Jan 04, 2014 10:00 am

Châtelaine wrote:There was NO time difference between Portugal and the U.K. .....!

But BST is one hour ahead of GMT too, so it may also have been an hour out in the UK
If I hadn't been told that the photo was taken at 2.29pm in early May, I would have thought it was more like midday (1pm BST) because the sun is almost directly overhead the three subjects
It doesn't even look like early May, even on the southern tip of Portugal, but that doesn't make any sense so I must be mistaken
Oddly, the tree does cast a shadow away from the camera, and the same is probably true of the parasol, which according to Google Earth overlaps the grass but not by that much. But the shadows on the people are almost directly downwards
Interesting that they are directly facing the direction of the sun too because the shadows on them are symmetrical
The head shadow on the white T shirt and the one cast by Amelie's hat look more vertical than you would expect for mid afternoon in early May
And there are no shadows behind them mirroring the tree shadow
It's baffling

by **PeterMac** Sat Jan 04, 2014 10:38 am

The Snapper wrote:Well the question is: does that appear to indicate a lighter wind than the high force 4 (18mph) during the early afternoon on May 3?

That looks like a Force 1, max "Single strands of tiny child's silk-fine hair moving languidly across face"

by The Snapper Sat Jan 04, 2014 10:50 am

It's funny but if someone had said it was taken on Saturday lunchtime I would have believed them:

Wind westerly 11mph, clear sunny sky, temperature 21C

A lovely day indeed

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