Analyzing position of sun in last photo

BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.

Nereid wrote:

BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.

Doesn't mean anything unless you know what time it was taken.

BlueBag wrote:

Nereid wrote:

BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.

Doesn't mean anything unless you know what time it was taken.

It was taken on the 3rd of May.
So was the other one.
And all the others for 3rd of May in the link.

We can play "spot the fleece" if you like.

It's a bit easy though.

BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Nereid wrote:

BlueBag wrote:

Nereid wrote:

BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.

Doesn't mean anything unless you know what time it was taken.

It was taken on the 3rd of May.
So was the other one.
And all the others for 3rd of May in the link.

We can play "spot the fleece" if you like.

It's a bit easy though.

Could be in the morning of the 3rd of May. Weather is so changeable.

"The third day of the Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix Portimao, sponsorized event by the Municipal Council of Portimão and ExpoArade, EM, brought again great Formula Racing action to the beach of Alvor. Today the wind was a little bit lighter with 10 to 18 knots. Together with the bright sunshine this enabled the racers to enjoy a perfect competition day. "

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Must have been bright and sunny in the afternoon as possible start times were 13.00 on all those days.


Meanwhile a bit closer to Praia da Luz, at 12.53:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Nereid wrote:

BlueBag wrote:

Nereid wrote:

BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.

Doesn't mean anything unless you know what time it was taken.

It was taken on the 3rd of May.
So was the other one.
And all the others for 3rd of May in the link.

We can play "spot the fleece" if you like.

It's a bit easy though.

Could be in the morning of the 3rd of May. Weather is so changeable.

"The third day of the Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix Portimao, sponsorized event by the Municipal Council of Portimão and ExpoArade, EM, brought again great Formula Racing action to the beach of Alvor. Today the wind was a little bit lighter with 10 to 18 knots. Together with the bright sunshine this enabled the racers to enjoy a perfect competition day. "

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Must have been bright and sunny in the afternoon as possible start times were 13.00 on all those days.


Meanwhile a bit closer to Praia da Luz, at 12.53:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

BlueBag wrote:
We have no idea of the provenance of that one or the time (as previoously discussed).

How ever the windsurfing photos are kosher.

I would say 95% of the people in the photos are wearing fleeces except for the surfers.

plebgate wrote:

PeterMac wrote:MID - TERM REVIEW

An attempt at a mid-term review of the discussions about the Last Photo

It is interesting how much debate, not to say anger and vituperation this subject raises.
Way beyond normal debate, argument, refutation, counter argument, introduction of new evidence,
No, something much more visceral is at play here, and one begins to believe that those who take one particular view realise how devastating it would be if the Last Photo were found to be not exactly right.

Let us sum up.

For the Last Photo to be evidence of Madeleine’s continued existence in good health at lunchtime on 3/5/7 every single aspect of it has to be absolutely right.  
If one thing can be shown to be wrong, then it is a Forgery - it tells a lie about itself, and can no longer be prayed in aid, or adduced as proof.

The time (accepting that it can vary by one hour) the date, the 3 people portrayed the location, the weather, their clothing, their positioning, the sunshine conditions, the wind, and all the EXIF, MUST be absolutely correct and beyond reproach and reasoned criticism.
But the more some begin to worry about individual aspects of the photo the more it seems others rush into the breach to defend it.

It is now being argued, apparently in all seriousness that the Weather reports from the local airport could be wrong.
That is then countered with video of a major windsurfing competition just down the coast, and the written reports from that event and from locals who keep such records.
But that is clearly not sufficient and we are then told that the photo was taken inland, whereas the video was on the coast.    This is of course true, but it is presented as if the difference of 400 m between sea and tennis court was especially significant.

We are then told that wind speed is taken with an Anemometer at 3m from the ground in an open area and that the frictional resistance of hedges, trees, buildings, shrubs, cars, and so on will effectively slow the apparent wind speed at human level.  This is correct, of course, but this argument is considerably reduced by noting that the wind from the SSW passes across a large area of open land, a car park, a road, a low wall and some thin and low vegetation, before passing round or through a chain link fence before hitting the three people full in the face, without ruffling Madeleine's fine hair, nor dislodging the children's sun hats

We are also asked to accept that the fact that the sun shone through for a few minutes on a day when the cover increased from 50% + to 75% plus, before clearing later in the evening, would be sufficient to vindicate the Photo.
But people dress for the average of the weather they anticuipate, and all three are dressed for a hot and sunny day, not one with thick clouds which lets the sun through for a few minutes from time to time.

The perspiration sheen, no more, on Gerry’s forehead was noted, but then in an extraordinary leap we are asked to believe that he had come directly from a tennis court, and for that reason would have been sweating.   Except that he is not sweating.  There is no sweat on his T shirt, either under the arms, nor in the characteristic stripe down the front below the chin.    If he had been sweating he would be likely to have showered and changed before lunch.     He is wearing ‘normal’ clothing for a hot day.  He is not wearing Tennis gear, and as a keen and semi-professional sportsman of many year’s standing, would be likely to adhere to a fairly rigid personal dress code when on court.   He has his feet in the pool, there is no sign of expensive tennis shoes
But strangely this explanation is totally independent of, and in fact contrary to anything the McCanns have told us about the sequence of events.

The alternative timings of 13:29 and 14:29 are also in direct contradiction to what is said in statements elsewhere,

And then we come to the strange timings
Why was this not used as the poster photo ?.  It is argued that the poster has to be full face with no hat.  To which one is forced to ask - Why?   The cropped pool photo is far more representative of a child than the much younger one presented from several months before.
Why was the photo not handed to the PJ.    The PJ ended up issuing the poster photo on their own official poster in the absence of any other or better image

And what is the significance of the sequence
20th   GM to UK to collect photos from the album
22nd  GM, PM (PR) return to PdL with Mitchell
23rd   photo sent to AFP
24th photo released to world

But then there is a further inadvertent spin off
The wind at lunchtime is recorded at Force 4 - stiff breeze.
Assuming we accept the argument that at ground level even across open land etc. it would have been less than that, then let us move to consideration of the wind at 10pm
By then it is Force 2/3 and has veered to WNW, at a slight angle to the road and the car park. The road is built up, gardens have trees and bushes, the car park was protected by high trees and thick bushes. The window to the children’s room was further partially protected by a wall, somewhat higher that the sill
The window opening is max. 1 m x 0.5 m   = 0.5 square metre
The door is 2 m x 0.75 m = 1.5 square metre
thus reducing the effective wind speed / pressure by two thirds.

For a gust to slam the door against the weight of an adult holding it, and for a second gust to whoosh full length curtains from where they are trapped between the bed and the wall, and against the wall and the wicker chair, would need a series of gusts of Force 7 +
The effect of this on the 40 square metres of the tarpaulin cover in the Tapas bar would have been “noticeable”, and at Faro airport the wind sheer caused by these extraordinary conditions would have been noted and pilots warned to take appropriate evasive action.
Even when the Tapas group made their rogatories and were specifically asked about the wind conditions, not one commented on this strange phenomenon.

Beyond a reasonable doubt ?  Not sure if an entire jury would agree
Balance of probabilities ?  Certainly arguable

Thank you.

Nereid wrote:I tend to believe the press release claiming it was sunny. Racing didn't start till 13.00 on the day.

Nereid wrote:And in all those pictures only 1 strand of hair out of place!

BlueBag wrote:

Nereid wrote:I tend to believe the press release claiming it was sunny. Racing didn't start till 13.00 on the day.

Sunny all day? 

Obviously not.

Intermittent?

The people on the boats are still wearing fleeces.. after 13.00

Nereid wrote:
I don't think it was sunny all day. I would agree with intermittent. And I think that it might have warmed up gradually and burn the cloud cover partially away to let the sun through. But hey, that's what I think. Doesn't mean it's true.

Calendar of Events. and notes about weather
[This has been heavily edited to concentrate on the weather related items]

Saturday, April 28 2007.
Clear skies with warm temperatures for time of year enabled a full entry in the golf competition at the nearby Boavista Resort. From 1 ’til 4pm, warm dry conditions. Clear skies at night resulted in cooler conditions by dawn the following day.

Sunday, April 29 2007. Another fine day (warm once the Sun got up) but some evidence of weather on the change by evening. No threat of frost for the following day due to cloud cover that night.

Monday, April 30 2007. Cloudy day, but dry and average temperatures.

Tuesday, May 1 2007. Cooler cloudier weather,

Wednesday, May 2 2007. Cool, cloudy with sunny spells and moderate winds

Thursday, 3 May 2007   Weather continues cool and cloudy with sunny intervals, but not pool dipping weather.
Noticed first evidence of weather change, as by 7.15 pm cloud was clearing from the North. Just after 11pm night sky clear with full moon
I arrived at my apartment about 1145pm. It was a clear dry moonlit night and it was good to reflect that better weather had now set in.
In fact, the rains did not return until 14 June.

Friday 4 May, 2007  I was awakened at c.0750 on a fine clear morning,

Saturday 5 May, 2007. Weather continues fine and sunny.

This is a first hand account from a resident of PdL, whose previous profession required him to know everything there was to know about weather 
It has been sent to the PJ, to Dr Amaral, and to Grange

PeterMac wrote:

Nereid wrote:
I don't think it was sunny all day. I would agree with intermittent. And I think that it might have warmed up gradually and burn the cloud cover partially away to let the sun through. But hey, that's what I think. Doesn't mean it's true.

It warmed up a bit, but the cloud cover got thicker, until much later in the evening, when it began to clear

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]" />


From the diary of an ex-pet professional weather observer

Calendar of Events. and notes about weather
[This has been heavily edited to concentrate on the weather related items]

Saturday, April 28 2007.
Clear skies with warm temperatures for time of year enabled a full entry in the golf competition at the nearby Boavista Resort. From 1 ’til 4pm, warm dry conditions. Clear skies at night resulted in cooler conditions by dawn the following day.

Sunday, April 29 2007. Another fine day (warm once the Sun got up) but some evidence of weather on the change by evening. No threat of frost for the following day due to cloud cover that night.

Monday, April 30 2007. Cloudy day, but dry and average temperatures.

Tuesday, May 1 2007. Cooler cloudier weather,

Wednesday, May 2 2007. Cool, cloudy with sunny spells and moderate winds

Thursday, 3 May 2007   Weather continues cool and cloudy with sunny intervals, but not pool dipping weather.
Noticed first evidence of weather change, as by 7.15 pm cloud was clearing from the North. Just after 11pm night sky clear with full moon
I arrived at my apartment about 1145pm. It was a clear dry moonlit night and it was good to reflect that better weather had now set in.
In fact, the rains did not return until 14 June.

Friday 4 May, 2007  I was awakened at c.0750 on a fine clear morning,

Saturday 5 May, 2007. Weather continues fine and sunny.

Dee Coy wrote:Someone mentioned on another thread that, although the weather wasn't brilliant that week, the family looked tanned by the end of it - on news reports etc.

Certainly don't look even vaguely tanned here on 'the sixth day of the holiday'. Not even a faint glow. They are all sporting English pallor, imo. First or second day in the warmer clime, imo:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] lunchtime on the 3rd.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]must've been an intense few hours of sunshine between then and the next morning...

Snifferdog wrote:

Dee Coy wrote:Someone mentioned on another thread that, although the weather wasn't brilliant that week, the family looked tanned by the end of it - on news reports etc.

Certainly don't look even vaguely tanned here on 'the sixth day of the holiday'. Not even a faint glow. They are all sporting English pallor, imo. First or second day in the warmer clime, imo:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] lunchtime on the 3rd.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]must've been an intense few hours of sunshine between then and the next morning...

Piz Buin anyone? Nah, it looks to be a genuine suntan going by the burnt red areas of sensitive skin showing through their brown tans.

So, either the pool pic is genuine, albeit with changed exif data, which isn't under dispute here.

Or, the pallid complexion is due to...

1. A Composite/Photoshopped possibly older image(s). Bearing in mind Madeleine looks younger than on the tennis photo, at least by a year.

and/or,

2. Taken on a prior visit to Praia da Luz?

Nina wrote:

Snifferdog wrote:

Dee Coy wrote:Someone mentioned on another thread that, although the weather wasn't brilliant that week, the family looked tanned by the end of it - on news reports etc.

Certainly don't look even vaguely tanned here on 'the sixth day of the holiday'. Not even a faint glow. They are all sporting English pallor, imo. First or second day in the warmer clime, imo:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] lunchtime on the 3rd.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]must've been an intense few hours of sunshine between then and the next morning...

Piz Buin anyone? Nah, it looks to be a genuine suntan going by the burnt red areas of sensitive skin showing through their brown tans.

So, either the pool pic is genuine, albeit with changed exif data, which isn't under dispute here.

Or, the pallid complexion is due to...

1. A Composite/Photoshopped possibly older image(s). Bearing in mind Madeleine looks younger than on the tennis photo, at least by a year.

and/or,

2. Taken on a prior visit to Praia da Luz?

I would like to have seen their hand in that 4th may photograph. In the pool picture Gerry's face is showing the start of a healthy glow but his hands and arms \nd legs are quite pale considering he would have been in short sleeves and shorts most of the time playing tennis hour after hour.