All possible scenarios

Possible scenarios.

a)In all cases the Madeleine Fund has to work, whatever happened.
b)In all cases the dog's evidence is good whatever happened.
c)The coloboma has to be ready and photographs prepared.

1) she was really abducted by:
a stalker, a gipsy who wanted new blood for the tribe, a paedophile, an abductor working to order or by a childless couple.
Setting up Fund and support, if this happened on 3/5 - highly unlikely. Too many people on the spot within hours and it wouldn't be the first thing on the agenda. The childless couple would have gone for Amelie. Only a) could work and even then hardly so soon.

2) she was (accidentally) killed on a previous holiday in PdL. Body refrigerated and disposed of on next holiday when a scenario was devised.
This gives plenty of time for Fund and support, explains the curious absence of M in photographs and the fact that the creche attendants thought she was shy.
Against, another girl would have to stand in for her. Not so hard, JT's daughter would be prime candidate for that.
For, Gerry had been to PdL or at least Portugal several times, almost certainly knew Murat, had other contacts there as events proved.
K: the family had been on holidays (incl. the twins) to Ireland, Guernsey and Spain. Assuming the twins would not travel until 6 months old, that makes 4 holidays in 18 months.
Gerry's remark in the bus that he wasn't there to enjoy himself. The lack of photographs, the curious behaviour of the whole group and the plan for fundraising. Brother John giving up the day job almost immediately.
Cadaver odour can last well past 6 months I believe. Explains lack of DNA in flat and possibly overlooked blood behind sofa.
But other people had stayed in apartment in April and 6 months in UK without M. Pretty difficult. a,b an c would work.

3) she was going to be passed on to another person, who had to do the abduction. This went wrong and she died. Say 1/5 this happened.
For: G and K. : 'the night we found her'.
Kate frequently hoping that whoever had her would look after her and she would light up the lives of all around her. (didn't do that at home according to her book). Curious remarks. A prepared mantra that didn't fit the script anymore?
Still enables the Fundraising to go ahead, but with the added and somewhat panicked disposing of the body. Most time would be taken up with hiding the body. a,b, and c would work since it was prepaired in advance.
Risk factor, very great - leaving blackmail and/or discovery in future a possibility whether the girl lived or died.

4)She was successfully abducted by arrangement and now lives happily with another family.The Fundraising can work fine, no chance of anyone recognising her from the poster. b, doesn't work.

5) She was overdosed/had an accident found by her parents already dead, this would work only if it was much earlier in the holiday, or if it was intentional.
It was IMO probably the reason the T7 cooperated with the deception and Rachel made the remark about resuscitation.
The Fund can work, but only with plenty of time to plan it. a and c are quite a stretch to fit in, b works fine.

6) It was planned as early as 2006. Advice was given in marketing, psychology e.g. religion (Madeleine instead of Maddie - distancing), publicity - there are quite a number of similarities with the JonBenet Ramsey case. Family was prepared e.g. 'child not very well' . Future roles in child protection considered.
T7 mostly not implicit. Help from 'above' on speed dial. a, b and c all work. Even when, as I think a lot went wrong.

In all cases except nr 1, the coloboma idea and the out of date photo would be fine. Therefore, nr. 1 can never have happened, because why distribute a photograph with 'the eye' which didn't look anything like her. (compare the tennis girl) when you're really looking for her.

I've added all the theories which have read even when they're wild like nr. 2. My money's on nr 6 because it's rock solid.
The blackmail/discovery risk of finding a live girl is far too great imo.
Whichever wild way I try to work it, I think this started in the UK, was performed in backward, clodhopping, paedophile infested Portugal.
Most telling is the fury of the McC's that the PJ were asking them questions, that their story wasn't accepted. There's something rather childish about that reaction.

There is still the fact that they chose to do it this way. There are a hundred ways to lose a child although if you're focussed on getting a Fund full of money out of it, you need to get the sympathy vote from the public.
If it wasn't for the money - any number of 'accidents' could have been devised. But an accident will not get you money.
If it was a real unexpected accident - they could pull enough strings - all the strings they've pulled so far to get the child taken to the UK, fudge the PM and end of story. In fact whitewash the whole thing, barely anyone need to have known about it. Short article on the dangers of cliffs or something.

It had to be a sensational story so that it would appeal to the public. A child falling off a rock or being taken away by someone in a supermarket (too much risk of CCTV everywhere anyway for such a scheme) isn't going to get pensioners and schoolchildren giving their last pennies.

And the narrative had everything a tabloid could ever wish for.

I think n2 can be ruled out for many reasons, a simple one being they were all in ireland in april 07.

I'll go for number 5

I believe it was an accident probably earlier than the 3rd but on that holiday. It was an accident - one which on second thought suited them just fine. They wanted to pass her on to family, she probably wasn't healthy and not an easy todler to deal with. I don't think they found her dead, I think one of the parents (Kate) was present. (I believe that comment: "When we found her" was actually cut off. The actual clip said "When we found her gone". Will have to get a link to support that part.

I think the fund was just to give the whole abduction theory momentum. It was part of the "divert" plan. It goes with the whole media, interviews, spokesperson etc. I may be naive but, I don't think the fund was at all started for the money, (obviously that too) but the main objective was to support abduction. One way to have the people believe them. They had to divert and they did it with a show. And we can say what we want but the majority of people believed them and still do now. In other words, their divert plan worked really well. Once they realized it worked well, that's when things changed. And that's when they thought BINGO!!

And I think the whole objective and goal has changed. NOW its all for the money... and besides they can not backtrack now what they have started. The fact the they "got away" with it supports their idea of just continuing the fund and let the money roll in.


Just had a look now : I don't have confirmation on that line of Gerry, but this is probably where I saw it:

Anonymous said...
"as bad as the night we found her GONE".
It's a colloquialism.

9 MAY 2010 11:55
Anonymous said...
The tape's been cut....after "found her". That's not proof of Gerry's guilt, it is just trickery.

9 MAY 2010 12:02
Anonymous said...
How do you know the tape's been cut?

9 MAY 2010 12:18
Anonymous said...
I 'guess' the tape was cut because Gerry was in mid sentence when the voice on the tape ends. It seems unlikely that he would stop talking mid sentence and start playing music instead.

9 MAY 2010 22:05

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I'd have to say 5.
Maybe 6? Although I find it hard to believe that any parent can be that cold & calculating. But then leaving 3 babies alone in a foreign country night after night, is totally beyond my grasp, plus their reactions after the 'abduction' were not what I'd call normal behaviour, If either of my kids went missing, I think I'd have to be sedated.

You're living up to you name Sweetex! Re the 'found her gone' I'm sure that's another myth - I know I've seen one clip where it ran on - but in any case that remark can be interpreted in different ways. I just added bits to prop up possible scenarios.

It was always about the money, why should they start collecting from day 1? Glenfield hospital had a box in reception and there was some 10.000 pounds in it in no time. The family said they had to help with the mortgage - the mortgage payments for June and July 07 were paid out of the Fund! Surely a consultant should be able to support his family? Kate also worked part time.
Within a short time their PR man said on TV 'just send money in an enveloppe addressed to Kate and Gerry in Rothley - it will get there. '
The point is: they did not need money to search for Madeleine, they certainly didn't need it in a hurry. The Fund was set up in record time.
They even put collection boxes all over OC - what was that about? They were living for free in OC until the end of June.
Gerry was on compassionate leave for 6 months, fully paid.

I think the press was called - RI Mampilly - about 10.36 pm! That's before the police was called. No, this was planned, by somebody who just thought he was clever. Not really. But he had clever and importants friends. It wasn't just the money - imo it looks very much as if it was going to be a new life. Rich famous and ambassadors for lost children everywhere. It almost worked - they really hate Amaral for that reason alone.

Clarence Mitchell actually made that comment on a radio talkshow not TV, to Jon Gaunt I think?

Yes, that call being made to James Landale (who was out and wife took the call) and he phoned back is a shocker. Only just half an hour after Madeleine was supposed to have been found missing. Madeleine could have been found any minute, and yet the main news media already informed....... So phoning and not searching.

candyfloss wrote:Clarence Mitchell actually made that comment on a radio talkshow not TV, to Jon Gaunt I think?

Yes, that call being made to James Landale (who was out and wife took the call) and he phoned back is a shocker. Only just half an hour after Madeleine was supposed to have been found missing. Madeleine could have been found any minute, and yet the main news media already informed....... So phoning and not searching.

You know how it is Candyfloss - one starts seeing the pink one everywhere!

Why would the fund need to pay the June and July mortgage payments? Were they in arrears? Or did they know they would have insufficient funds to cover these payments when they went to Portugal. Nothing like a story like this to pull on the heartstrings, I know, it pulled on mine.

Tigger, the 10.36 pm call was not made by Rachel on the 3rd May, but was the call she received at that time on the 4th. She says she made the call to the BBC contacts Thursday night around midnight. That whole piece on the phone calls in her rogatory is a bit all over the shop but she didn't say that. Its true they were on the blower to media before PJ arrived though. David Payne is also supposed to have emailed Sky News at some stage that evening or early hours, but Ive forgotten where I read that.

tigger wrote:You're living up to you name Sweetex! Re the 'found her gone' I'm sure that's another myth - I know I've seen one clip where it ran on - but in any case that remark can be interpreted in different ways. I just added bits to prop up possible scenarios.

tbh i agree it could be a myth. I have had lots of time on my hands the past few days and read a lot about the case and re-reading certain things. That was one line I came accross in the past 24 hours thats why I remembered it. Don't get me wrong its not that I believe anything I read on every blog. It was just something I picked up on, and it kind of made sense to me.

tigger wrote:It was always about the money, why should they start collecting from day 1?

I think the same could be asked for:

1) why did they call the press before even calling the police
2) Why did they make calls to people in high rank positions in the first few hours
3) The website was set up in a record time too

Everything they did was to divert. The fund too. IMO. It was all just part of it. They knew they will have to make it big to take all attention of them. And that was exactly what they did.

tigger wrote:No, this was planned, by somebody who just thought he was clever. Not really. But he had clever and importants friends. It wasn't just the money - imo it looks very much as if it was going to be a new life. Rich famous and ambassadors for lost children everywhere. It almost worked - they really hate Amaral for that reason alone.

I don't think it takes that much time to plan. If you take my theory, and let's say the "incident" happened on the 1st. How long does it take to make a list of what to do? It is very clear that they know quite a few VIP's. So its quite easy to get the Tapas7 together, or maybe even only 1 or 2 of them and make a list (probably written on another page on M's sticker book - which disgusts me). My point is to plan "recovery of a disaster" could not take long. They are all highly intellectual people. They even had time maybe to google a few cases and look up some information. So the list would be:

Create a fund so people donate (and yes that can help us with our mortgage)
Create a website to make people aware withl helpline numbers and whatnot
Call the press and make a worldwide scene.
And probably Gerry mentioned to Kate: and we should some kind of "Arab prayer' to make people believe we are devout Catholics.
Oh and we should ask for a priest to make it real
etc

There is just to many inconsistencies not only in their statements, but with this whole thing to have had it planned. Why was it not properly planned then? Everybody involved in this plan would have known exactly what to say when, including Tanner's bundleman. I'm sure if this was planned bundleman would have "looked" and "act" totally different.

Maybe give me an example of what your line of thinking is what they planned and what went wrong?

Nina wrote:Why would the fund need to pay the June and July mortgage payments? Were they in arrears? Or did they know they would have insufficient funds to cover these payments when they went to Portugal. Nothing like a story like this to pull on the heartstrings, I know, it pulled on mine.

Gerry was on PAID compassionate leave until the end of June. The minute that stopped the mortgage payments started. Remember this couple were paid over £125k p/a (£85k ish net) between them so money shouldn't have been tight.

Gillyspot wrote:

Nina wrote:Why would the fund need to pay the June and July mortgage payments? Were they in arrears? Or did they know they would have insufficient funds to cover these payments when they went to Portugal. Nothing like a story like this to pull on the heartstrings, I know, it pulled on mine.

Gerry was on PAID compassionate leave until the end of June. The minute that stopped the mortgage payments started. Remember this couple were paid over £125k p/a (£85k ish net) between them so money shouldn't have been tight.

Plus he had his private work though I don't think he has that now, in fact didn't he say he only works part time now so he can concentrate on searching for Madeleine? And Kate doesn't work now either, so what do they do for money now if they were strapped for cash so early on? Daft question

Nina wrote:

Gillyspot wrote:

Nina wrote:Why would the fund need to pay the June and July mortgage payments? Were they in arrears? Or did they know they would have insufficient funds to cover these payments when they went to Portugal. Nothing like a story like this to pull on the heartstrings, I know, it pulled on mine.

Gerry was on PAID compassionate leave until the end of June. The minute that stopped the mortgage payments started. Remember this couple were paid over £125k p/a (£85k ish net) between them so money shouldn't have been tight.

Plus he had his private work though I don't think he has that now, in fact didn't he say he only works part time now so he can concentrate on searching for Madeleine? And Kate doesn't work now either, so what do they do for money now if they were strapped for cash so early on? Daft question

GM worked p/time when he first returned and then went back to full time. I have not seen anywhere he now works p/time. If you have a link to this Nina, I would be grateful as I haven't heard this before. I believe, he also said in an interview just recently during the review frenzy that he now mainly works on the research side of things.

candyfloss wrote:

Nina wrote:

Gillyspot wrote:

Nina wrote:Why would the fund need to pay the June and July mortgage payments? Were they in arrears? Or did they know they would have insufficient funds to cover these payments when they went to Portugal. Nothing like a story like this to pull on the heartstrings, I know, it pulled on mine.

Gerry was on PAID compassionate leave until the end of June. The minute that stopped the mortgage payments started. Remember this couple were paid over £125k p/a (£85k ish net) between them so money shouldn't have been tight.

Plus he had his private work though I don't think he has that now, in fact didn't he say he only works part time now so he can concentrate on searching for Madeleine? And Kate doesn't work now either, so what do they do for money now if they were strapped for cash so early on? Daft question

GM worked p/time when he first returned and then went back to full time. I have not seen anywhere he now works p/time. If you have a link to this Nina, I would be grateful as I haven't heard this before. I believe, he also said in an interview just recently during the review frenzy that he now mainly works on the research side of things.

I reaad this in the last week will go have a search, may take me some time as I am rubbish

candyfloss wrote:

Nina wrote:

Gillyspot wrote:

Nina wrote:Why would the fund need to pay the June and July mortgage payments? Were they in arrears? Or did they know they would have insufficient funds to cover these payments when they went to Portugal. Nothing like a story like this to pull on the heartstrings, I know, it pulled on mine.

Gerry was on PAID compassionate leave until the end of June. The minute that stopped the mortgage payments started. Remember this couple were paid over £125k p/a (£85k ish net) between them so money shouldn't have been tight.

Plus he had his private work though I don't think he has that now, in fact didn't he say he only works part time now so he can concentrate on searching for Madeleine? And Kate doesn't work now either, so what do they do for money now if they were strapped for cash so early on? Daft question [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

GM worked p/time when he first returned and then went back to full time. I have not seen anywhere he now works p/time. If you have a link to this Nina, I would be grateful as I haven't heard this before. I believe, he also said in an interview just recently during the review frenzy that he now mainly works on the research side of things.

It was stated during one of the recent UK interviews that Gerry works three days a week now. If I were to guess, I would say it was the Lorraine Kelly one.

sami wrote:

candyfloss wrote:

Nina wrote:

Gillyspot wrote:

Nina wrote:Why would the fund need to pay the June and July mortgage payments? Were they in arrears? Or did they know they would have insufficient funds to cover these payments when they went to Portugal. Nothing like a story like this to pull on the heartstrings, I know, it pulled on mine.

Gerry was on PAID compassionate leave until the end of June. The minute that stopped the mortgage payments started. Remember this couple were paid over £125k p/a (£85k ish net) between them so money shouldn't have been tight.

Plus he had his private work though I don't think he has that now, in fact didn't he say he only works part time now so he can concentrate on searching for Madeleine? And Kate doesn't work now either, so what do they do for money now if they were strapped for cash so early on? Daft question [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

GM worked p/time when he first returned and then went back to full time. I have not seen anywhere he now works p/time. If you have a link to this Nina, I would be grateful as I haven't heard this before. I believe, he also said in an interview just recently during the review frenzy that he now mainly works on the research side of things.

It was stated during one of the recent UK interviews that Gerry works three days a week now. If I were to guess, I would say it was the Lorraine Kelly one.

Thanks, will try to find it.

In the recent swedish interview kate says gerry works full time now

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In the LK interview LK asks GM about work, he never says anything about being part time, only that he now does more "academic" work.

Candyfloss, I am still searching.

I think i may be slowly converting to the 'planned' theory.
It really does seem all about the money with the MC's, which means that my theory about an accident that went wrong doesn't tally, unless they really are totally heartless & the minute Madeleine came to her fate the pound signs started flashing in front of them. But if that's the case it still doesn't account for their total lack of (real) emotion in the aftermath.
Perhaps it was planned & they were really just in it for the money.
I don't want to believe that as it makes Madeleine's life nothing but a money making machine.
Whatever happened to her my heart goes out to the innocent Madeleine

candyfloss wrote:In the LK interview LK asks GM about work, he never says anything about being part time, only that he now does more "academic" work.

Any references to him working three days a week must be I am sure referring to when he went back after Madeleines disappearance, and not now, which was three afternoons a week, he has been working full time for a while now. Happy to be corrected here. Ive forgotten what we were talking about now.

candyfloss wrote:In the LK interview LK asks GM about work, he never says anything about being part time, only that he now does more "academic" work.

Sorry, I was fairly sure it was LK who said something along the lines of "now you work 3 days....". It has definately been mentioned in the latest round of interviews, I distinctly remember it because it struck me as handy, it leaves him four days to travel to Sweden and the likes to do his interviews. There is mention here in this link. I cannot search video clips at the moment due to internet connection problems.


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sami wrote:

candyfloss wrote:In the LK interview LK asks GM about work, he never says anything about being part time, only that he now does more "academic" work.

Sorry, I was fairly sure it was LK who said something along the lines of "now you work 3 days....". It has definately been mentioned in the latest round of interviews, I distinctly remember it because it struck me as handy, it leaves him four days to travel to Sweden and the likes to do his interviews. There is mention here in this link. I cannot search video clips at the moment due to internet connection problems.


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Thank you sami it says GM scaled down to working 3 days a week. Hmmm, don't know if they are still thinking of when he originally went back, or if this is actually what he is doing now. Interesting, how can you manage working only 3 days a week?

sami that dundee article just states he went from full time to part time after madeleines disappearance which is exactly what happened in late 2007

candyfloss wrote:

sami wrote:

candyfloss wrote:In the LK interview LK asks GM about work, he never says anything about being part time, only that he now does more "academic" work.

Sorry, I was fairly sure it was LK who said something along the lines of "now you work 3 days....". It has definately been mentioned in the latest round of interviews, I distinctly remember it because it struck me as handy, it leaves him four days to travel to Sweden and the likes to do his interviews. There is mention here in this link. I cannot search video clips at the moment due to internet connection problems.


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Thank you sami it says GM scaled down to working 3 days a week. Hmmm, don't know if they are still thinking of when he originally went back, or if this is actually what he is doing now. Interesting, how can you manage working only 3 days a week?

Yes this is slightly ambiguous and was not what I was looking for. I know he went back part time when he returned home and I had always assumed he then returned full time. But is has been discussed again lately with three days being mentioned.