Criminal Profiler Chelsea Hoffman

I came across this name on Twitter, which I follow occasionally to do with the Madeleine case. She has now produced the following:

Another criminal profiler.......

New Madeleine McCann Case Analysis by Criminal Profiler Chelsea Hoffman.

The 2007 disappearance of Madeleine McCann gripped the entire world it seems. Now it's 2012 and there are still no answers in this case. Still, the public wants answers and it appears as though the McCanns at least show some kind of interest in continuing the search for the missing girl. The following case analysis is an attempt at digging down to the very beginning of this case in hopes of either confirming or disputing current offender profile/case profile theories regarding little Maddie.

Current working theories:


Stranger abduction
Familiar abduction (acquaintance/loved one/friend)
Foul play (with parents' knowledge [i.e. cover-up])
Foul play (without parents' knowledge)
Variable X ( To be discussed)


To summarize the case, Madeleine McCann vanished on the evening of May 3, 2007 -- a Thursday night. It was just days before the missing girl's fourth birthday. With her mother, father and twin siblings, Maddie was on vacation in Portugal -- staying at Praia da Luz in an apartment somewhere in the center of the resort. This central location seems to add to the mystery surrounding the case -- seeing as though the place was rather conspicuous. Kate and Gerry McCann, Maddie's parents, claim that they had left the child alone with her siblings to dine at a nearby cantina. The restaurant was approximately 130 yards away from the unsupervised children. Madeleine has not been found yet, and it's been five years. With this case being as high profile as it is on an international level, there is plenty of nonsense published regarding the case. There are plenty of lies, rumors and convoluted facts that need addressing and sifting through in order to get down to the core of the investigation.


There are also PR campaigns and hate groups -- much like with the Amanda Knox case. Certainly some of these groups mean well, but it's important to pay attention to facts and actually explore every possible theory without getting tunnel vision. That's why I'm here. First I want to highlight statistics of the area of the alleged disappearance of Madeleine McCann.


Algarve, Portugal
Population: over 450,000 (variable: increases to over 1 Million during tourism months [i.e. summertime]
Economics: #3 in wealthiest Portugal cities
Sociology/Politics: parliamentary constitutional republic/Catholic, evangelical, Christian, other.
Crime summary: Supposedly no "gangs" but an epicenter for drug trafficking and crimes against wealthy visitors and expats. (possible human trafficking?) CIA Worldbook states that Portugal itself is inundated with Latin American cocaine, hashish from North Africa and Southwest Asian heroin. Record amounts of these drugs have been seized in Portugal in general -- Algarve growing in high crime rate related to these drugs and due to the diminishing economy. Drug Crimes in Portugal make up for quite a large percentage of the population. Nearly 4,000 out of ever 100,000 people have committed drug offenses in the country.
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Missing cases in Algarve and surrounding areas: undefined
Homicide rate: Gun violence and murdered committed by "youths" dominant in Portugal
Unsolved homicide rate: undefined
Sex crime rate: 0.2% -- weighted average (worldwide) is 0.6% -- New Zealand leading in sex crimes (i.e. rapes) Portugal is very low on the list of rape statistics. However, this only accounts for reported rapes. Compare 0.2% to the revolving 1 Million occupants of Algarve, that statistic comes to - 200,000 potential rape victims annually. However, there are no close stats to report of Algarve -- it appears that the crime rate in general for all of Portugal is among the lowest in the world's aside from drug related offenses.
Child crime rate: undefined
Crime total: 218,360 -- far lower than United States, Australia and even Sweden!

Corruption crimes make up for 15%, 47% and 17% of crimes in Portugal (split into three categories i.e. business, property and courts)

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Analyze the stats: Stranger Abduction Theory
Given the extremely low crime rate of Portugal as a nation, it's hard to take notice of the "abduction" scenario in the Madeleine McCann disappearance. Looking at the various crime stats in the country compared to the population of the Algarve area, it's hard to fully accept the theory that Maddie was abducted by a stranger.

Nonetheless, the sheer negligence of Kate and Gerry McCann could have alerted any nearby predators. They admitted to leaving the kids alone more than once -- this could have been their undoing. There is always the chance that this could have happened. However, predators of this level are not impulse predators but calculative. With a calculative predator in the Algarve area, there would most likely be other cases of missing children and women. Upon researching the stats, there don't appear to be any readily available for a surface profile of the statistics. A calculative predator that is capable, and willing, to abduct a three-year old girl from her parent's vacation rental, with only the window of time left by the parents, is most likely a serial predator. (mind the commas!)
Check it out: If this child was abducted by a stranger, there would be at least two more cases of missing young girls in the region over the past decade or so. There haven't been any that have been reported. This is a modern European region, so it's hard to believe that there would be a vast amount of unreported disappearances and kidnappings. The fact that Madeleine's story hit international news wasn't entirely because she was a cute blonde girl from England who vanished on vacation. No, it was also because there simply isn't that kind of crime to be spoken of in the Algarve. That doesn't mean that there is absolutely none, but none to speak of -- meaning, the cases would have made headlines as well especially if any of the disappearances occurred after Maddie's disappearance.

Now there is always the possibility of corruption and coverups on the side of law enforcement in Algarve -- which isn't unlikely given the stats of corruption in Portugal in general.

Again, the likelihood of Madeleine McCann being abducted by a stranger are slim to none.


Please stay tuned for Part Two of my profile in which I will delve into the possibilities of abduction by someone she knew, or foul play. Part two will be a long one! Keep in mind that I am doing this in chunks starting with a statistical analysis. Next I will be looking into all known evidence and statements made regarding the first 48 hours of the case.

Interesting ! is this someone we should watch out for ? or is it going to be filled with the inconsistencies of previous investigations ? I note you have followed on twitter , I do not do twitter but I do find this report refreshing...

Here is her profile from twitter, she is a writer for the Huffington Post............

Chelsea Hoffman

@TheRealChelseaH

Crime analyst, profiler and featured writer on Huffington Post. Writer/commentator for Gather News and owner of ChelseaHoffman.Com -- Also a novelist!

las vegas · [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

I follow Joana Morais, Kikoraton and Mike Spudgun. JM and MS also have very interesting blogs to do with this case.

Very interesting.

May I be so bold as to make a suggestion? So all the following instalments can be read together without stuff in between, is it possible to copy and lock the post purely as a reference in the archive/research section, with the additional ones being put in there as they appear? I am sure people will be eager to discuss the contents, but the original profile instalments may get a bit lost n the ensuing discussion. Apologies in advance if this is a bit cheeky!!

Have merged the two threads, sharonl as this was started last night and posted on.

Smokeandmirrors, how are you cheeky ?! I was very tired when I read and copied it over, took it for granted with the way I have seen this kind of topic handled here that it would be put into a separate section because Pat Brown's was, or so I thought. So I should have made the suggestion, thank you for doing so!
It is indeed very interesting and it makes no sense to have it with comments because it will generate plenty of discussion imo.

candyfloss wrote:Have merged the two threads, sharonl as this was started last night and posted on.

Can you un-merge Sharon's post and put it in the Research Library as smokeandmirrors suggested, then lock it please? I don't think it hurts to have this topic in two places. I thought it was a good suggestion by SM- can't remember how to unmerge topics and I know you can do it soooo quickly! Ta muchly

admin wrote:

candyfloss wrote:Have merged the two threads, sharonl as this was started last night and posted on.

Can you un-merge Sharon's post and put it in the Research Library as smokeandmirrors suggested, then lock it please? I don't think it hurts to have this topic in two places. I thought it was a good suggestion by SM- can't remember how to unmerge topics and I know you can do it soooo quickly! Ta muchly

Done

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Thank you very much

Part 2 of Chelsea Hoffman's findings, tweeted here with an extract...........


Mari Welzel‏@umweltbuerger

#McCann these 2 dogs,among t most famous in England for. work with police leaves me no reason to deny their discoveries [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Thanks Candyfloss, I am getting part 3 when I open and have not seen part 2 yet? Any info please?

russiandoll wrote: Thanks Candyfloss, I am getting part 3 when I open and have not seen part 2 yet? Any info please?

Posted in the Research Library this morning russiandoll.

thank you !
I am glad we are reading her thoughts.... I find her easy to follow and interesting..

On a lighter note, I love she calls an apartment a 'cottage'...quite sweet

There is a basic error in the first sentence of the piece: "...Madeleine McCann vanished on the evening of May 3, 2007". That statement is based on an assumption. It would be more accurate to say '...Madeleine McCann was reported missing on the evening of May 3, 2007'.
Any cold case review would have to look at the (rather scant) evidence offered by the parents and their friends of Madeleine's movements before the announcement on May 3rd.

I tried to post this comment on her site this morning, but for some
reason I am having problems posting to certain blogs.

Please can we all cut Chelsea some slack. I asked her to be interested on the McCann case on twitter last week & she is doing a great job learning about the case. I asked as I have been impressed with her work on other missing children eg Lisa Irwin on Gather.

I am sending her information from the files by email regularly and also links to videos etc to help her.

From Chelsea's latest blog ..

Never realised the McCanns were offered a polygraph test...not surprised it came with a whole set of conditions.

To me their behaviour isn't that of parents who would do anything to find their child... IMO they are either serious control freaks who have to control every situation, or they are doing anything and everything to cover their backs and protect themselves from being implicated, whilst trying to make all the right noises. Perhaps both but certainly the latter IMO.


From Chelsea's article:
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Kate and Gerry McCann claimed they would take a polygraph test at any point. It's interesting that when a media source offered to pay for a polygraph test, the two backed out of their promise. Why would supposedly innocent parents of a truly missing child back-out after swearing they'd take one of these lie detector tests? As far as I've been able to find, they've still not taken one.
It's reported that Don Cargill, the chairman of the British And European Polygraph Association, had been in contact with the McCanns regarding the administration of a polygraph. However, Kate McCann submitted a list of "conditions" that would make giving the test impossible. In other words, it seemed like Kate would only take the test if the administrator only stuck to the questions she and Gerry would answer.
"Kate said she'd take it to prove her innocence but in reality, she wasn't willing. I was dumbfounded, to tell the truth." -- Don Cargill.

Let's be clear here: People who have nothing to hide; people who are completely innocent; people who are not connected to the potential crimes committed: do not refuse polygraph tests, nor do they try to weasel their ways out of answering the questions that matter. In the United States, where the homicide rates are certainly higher than the UK and Portugal, it's rather general practice for the parents of a missing or murdered child to take polygraph tests. Our experts recommend it regularly, such as John Walsh of America's Most Wanted, who often reminisces that when his son Adam was abducted, he and everyone in the family immediately volunteered polygraph tests because they wanted to be cleared immediately so the crime could be investigated properly and justice could be served.

The point is simple: Refusing a polygraph makes you look guilty as hell. Period.


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