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Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

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The future for Labour?

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Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by Tony Bennett on 27.01.17 21:47

Since Jeremy Corbyn became Leader of the Labour Party, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds over the past 16 months.

Here are the calculations:

The last General Election was held on 7 May 2015.

In that election, 29,989,107 people voted.

Just 31.2% voted Labour - around 9,360,000.

Jeremy Corbyn became the elected Party Leader four months later, on 12 September 2015.

Looking at all the polls during that 4-month period, Labour support varied from 27% to 34%, so still close to the 31.2% support they had in the General Election.

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Today, 27 January 2017, 503 days after Corbyn became Leader, the last three polls put Labour on 25%, 26% and 24% respectively. The average current support is therefore running at about 25%.

25% of 29,989,107 people is just 7,495,000.

That's a drop of 1,865,000 supporters - not far short of 2 million - in 16 months.

A fall of 1,865,000 supporters over 503 days works out as a loss of

3,708 supporters every day since Corbyn was elected

154 supporters every hour since Corbyn was elected

5 supporters every 2 minutes since Corbyn was elected, or

the loss of one supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, ever since Corbyn was elected.

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In recent weeks, two Labour MPs resigned in order to take jobs elsewhere, one representing Copeland (Cumberland), the other Stoke-on-Trent Central.

According to both opinion pollsters and the bookmakers, the Conservatives are likely to win Copeland and UKIP may win in Stoke-on-Trent.

Just 20 months ago, Ed Miliband thought he was going to be elected Prime Minister.

____________________


2007 (28 June) Dr Gerry McCann: “I have no doubt we will be able to sustain a high profile for Madeleine’s disappearance in the long-term”.

2017 (February) Dr Kate McCannthrust into a global bidding war…news giants battle to sign her up for the 10th anniversary…offered huge bids…bombarded with offers…30 sitting on the table…getting new bids every other day…one told Kate and Gerry: ‘Name your price!’
                        

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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by BlueBag on 27.01.17 21:51

Is that according to polls?
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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by Tony Bennett on 27.01.17 22:15

@BlueBag wrote:Is that according to polls?


It's according to several recent council by-elections. I.e. REAL polls, here are the five most recent:

Hartlepool

UKIP: 49%
LAB: 25%
CON: 4% 

 
Alsager TC, East

LIBDEM: 70%
LAB: 30%

Three Rivers DC, Gade Valley

LIBDEM:  61%
CON: 19%
LAB: 12%
UKIP: 7%

Sunderland City, Sandhill

LIBDEM: 45%
LAB: 25%
UKIP: 19%
CON: 10%

Ilkley PC, Ilkley South

LIBDEM: 72%
LAB: 28%

-------------------

...and according to Wikipedia's poll of polls, here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

____________________


2007 (28 June) Dr Gerry McCann: “I have no doubt we will be able to sustain a high profile for Madeleine’s disappearance in the long-term”.

2017 (February) Dr Kate McCannthrust into a global bidding war…news giants battle to sign her up for the 10th anniversary…offered huge bids…bombarded with offers…30 sitting on the table…getting new bids every other day…one told Kate and Gerry: ‘Name your price!’
                        

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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by BlueBag on 28.01.17 8:16

Polls are meaningless and mostly fraudulent (as you know).

The by-election results are also meaningless (what was the swing?)

Neither can be used to calculate a loss of supporters.

What was before/after supporter totals are you comparing?

I think he has lost supporters though.

I think he might get some back with his stand on Brexit - he's told Labour MPs they must back it.

It's just sound-bites without actualities.
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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by Tom Moore on 28.01.17 17:02

Polls are almost invariably accurate: in the 2015 UK GE they said the result would be close; in the 2016 US Presidential election they also said the result would be close: both times correct.

For an opposition to stand a chance at a following GE they must be making by-election gains, for example David Cameron's Tories taking Crewe and Nantwich on 22 May 2008.

Labour made a very a bad decision in 2010 with the election of Ed Miliband, the loss of Scotland and now doing the usual British thing of pretending it does not have a problem.
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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by BlueBag on 28.01.17 17:52

Polls say whatever the person paying for them wants to hear.

The US polls had Trump 10 points behind.

The UK polls had a remain win.

Polls are a form of expectation management.
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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by plebgate on 28.01.17 22:31

It didn't help when the news outlets reported very strongly that Corbyn would not "push the button" imo.
The people want to know that they and there families will be protected by any elected government.  He also comes across more Michael Foot than Churchill.

We need another Winnie not another Foot in mouth.

We have no option but to wait and see how Terri May performs but I aint holding my breath.   So many times we have looked for change and it has not been forthcoming and the way this Brexit farce has gone on I still have no faith in any of them.

Brexit means Brexit now not in 2019 or if it must be 2019 at least stop these huge amounts pouring out of our country and into the pockets of others who have no right to our hard earned.

Same for the foreign aid money.   

We are being kept on waiting lists, operations cancelled, the elderly and disabled being subjected to very hard times and yet 12 billion and rising yearly being given away  to other Nations and still charities are begging for more money from us.   It really is crazy.

It makes no sense whatsover and yet still TPTB do not listen to us.

Keep our hard earned for our own, it is not the Government's money it is OURS and we should be looked after first and foremost.  It really is time for change, let's hope May can deliver.

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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by Tom Moore on 29.01.17 9:16

@BlueBag wrote:Polls say whatever the person paying for them wants to hear.

The US polls had Trump 10 points behind.

The UK polls had a remain win.

Polls are a form of expectation management.
In the US opinion polls on 08.11.2016 Hilary Clinton's lead varied between about 2% and about 5%: she won the popular vote by 2.1%.

Leading to 23.06.2015, the UK opinion polls gave remain a lead between 0% and 4%, and leave won by 3.78%.

Belief in Jeremy Corbyn's ability to lead Labour into government is based on not letting the truth get in the way of good story.
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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by BlueBag on 29.01.17 11:07

Hilliary's lead was ridiculously 11% at one point.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/oct/10/clinton-trump-pence-campaign-heated-presidential-debate-live

Remain had a 7% lead.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-poll-idUSKCN0Z400P

"The truth"?

The truth is not found in bought and paid for polls.

There's lies, damn lies and polls.
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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by Tom Moore on 29.01.17 12:16

Polls are not inaccurate because after they are taken people change their minds.
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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by BlueBag on 29.01.17 14:20

Dream on.

Polls are tools to try and control the simple minded.
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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by Tom Moore on 29.01.17 18:46

You are trying to support Jeremy Corbyn with the same type of vacuous arguments used to support mendacious Masonic miscreants Kate and Bro. Gerry McCann, who are currently believed to be responsible for the death of Madeleine McCann by some 93% of the British people.
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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by tinkier on 29.01.17 18:53

@Tom Moore wrote:You are trying to support Jeremy Corbyn with the same type of vacuous arguments used to support mendacious Masonic miscreants Kate and Bro. Gerry McCann, who are currently believed to be responsible for the death of Madeleine McCann by some 93% of the British people.

Now where have I read those exact words before....#mccann?

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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by kaz on 29.01.17 18:59

Labour as a Party is finished, caput. It no longer represents the working classes and has completely lost its way. UKIP has more to offer in my opinion. A lot of people reluctantly  voted Labour in the past because they just couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory . There simply wasn’t a Party they could affiliate to . Now they have UKIP which to me seems to have  more to offer the aspirational  working man of which there are many in this country.

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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by BlueBag on 30.01.17 7:26

@Tom Moore wrote:You are trying to support Jeremy Corbyn with the same type of vacuous arguments used to support mendacious Masonic miscreants Kate and Bro. Gerry McCann, who are currently believed to be responsible for the death of Madeleine McCann by some 93% of the British people.
Where have I said I'm supporting Corbyn?

He lost it for me when he appointed Diane Abbott to the shadow cabinet.

Although I think he is a Brexiter which stands in his favor - maybe a soft Brexit (ie. more mass immigration) which doesn't.

He's not a patch on his hero Tony Benn who was totally anti-EU.

That has nothing to do with the point about polls.

They are only an indication of the way the sponsor of the poll wants to influence the sheep - if the American election and Brexit doesn't tell you that then I can't help you any further.
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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by BlueBag on 30.01.17 7:28

@kaz wrote:Labour as a Party is finished, caput. It no longer represents the working classes and has completely lost its way. UKIP has more to offer in my opinion. A lot of people reluctantly  voted Labour in the past because they just couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory . There simply wasn’t a Party they could affiliate to . Now they have UKIP which to me seems to have  more to offer the aspirational  working man of which there are many in this country. 
I think we have to vote UKIP until we actually leave the EU.

Forget all the other issues, this is the single issue until it is resolved.

More local democracy, more accountability - not less as the globalists want.

Nigel Farage still seems to be leader without being leader - I think he will rejoin the Tory party at some point when we are out.
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Re: Since Corbyn became Leader, Labour have lost about 2 million supporters - equivalent to losing one Labour supporter every 24 seconds, day and night, over the past 16 months

Post by kaz on 30.01.17 11:53

More local democracy, more accountability - not less as the globalists want.






Totally agree Bluebag. On this one issue alone I would vote UKIP. There are reservations about leaving the EU : For example the acceptance of GMO products from America which I am vehemently opposed to but  such  issues we will have to be  addressed   as and when and if a particular Party is also opposed I shall probably vote for it. I think the days are gone when Parties could rely on certain sections of Society for their vote. it’s more about the big issues now.  Today’s  working man has aspirations to buy his own house , send his children to a good school and maybe own a few shares …………………all good old fashioned Tory values.  All this recent Tory  talk of Britain leading the world once again is  anathema to me.  Why do we have to ‘lead’ anybody anywhere? Why can’t we just build a fair and just society for ourselves  and let the rest of the world do their own thing? Maybe too simplistic! The point I’m making is no Party has my allegiance ………………..it’s the stance on issues that concern me  and mine that will be the  deciding factor on the way I vote  and I do believe that many people feel this way too.

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Retired murder DCI Colin Sutton: "I would also like to make the point that Operation Grange was so restricted from the start as to be destined to fail."

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Ex-DCI Andy Redwood had a "revelation moment" on BBC's Crimewatch on 14th October 2013 when he announced that Operation Grange had eliminated the Tanner sighting - which opened up the 'window of opportunity', in accordance with their remit, to allow the fake abduction to happen.

Despite "irrelevant behaviour" from blood and cadaver dogs in the McCann's apartment, on Kate McCann's clothes, and in the car they hired three weeks after Maddie disappeared, Ex-Chief Inspector, Ian Horrocks, said: "The thought that Kate and Gerry McCann had anything to do with the death of their daughter is frankly preposterous."

Gerry McCann called for example to be made of 'trolls'. SKY News reporter Martin Brunt doorstepped Brenda Leyland on 2 October 2014. She was then found dead in a Leicester hotel room. Brenda paid the price. She paid with her life.

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