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Which party do you want to win the next election?

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Who do want to win the next election?

12% 12% 
[ 8 ]
21% 21% 
[ 14 ]
1% 1% 
[ 1 ]
46% 46% 
[ 31 ]
3% 3% 
[ 2 ]
17% 17% 
[ 12 ]
 
Total Votes : 68

Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by Richard IV on 09.03.15 12:23

@aquila wrote:
@Richard IV wrote:
@Google.Gaspar.Statements wrote:It's just a pity that Nigel Farage admitted he didn't think he'd make a very good prime minister.

Why would I bother voting for him then?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11444256/Nigel-Farage-I-dont-think-Id-be-a-very-good-Prime-Minister.html



Welcome Richard  welcome
Thanks GGG.
Modesty scores him points afaic.  Perhaps not PM - but would be excellent in a coilition giving the robots a run for their money.
On the basis of your post, am I to take it that rattling sabres is the best UKIP can achieve in a coalition government?

I was hoping for five years of something more than that.

I feel I'm being asked to buy a concept and I have concerns, deep concerns that Farage is a toothless tiger.
No, not to be taken as `the best they can achieve`- it was not written as such in my post. There`s no way of knowing if he might be a toothless tiger.  All I`m saying is that he is believable compared to the rest.

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Unstable government ahead

Post by Tony Bennett on 09.03.15 12:43

However we vote, this is currently what the latest combination of pollsters and betting companies are predicting (current state of the parties in brackets):
 indicidually

279 (305) CONSERVATIVE (down 26)

273 (256) LABOUR (up 17)  

44 (6) SCOTTISH NATS (up 38)

29 (56) LIBERAL DEMOCRATS (down 27)

8 (8) DUP (N Ireland) (-)

4 (5) SINN FEIN (N Ireland) (down 1)

4 (2) UKIP (up 2)

3 (3) WELSH NATS (-)

3 (3) SDLP (N Ireland)

1 (1) GREEN (-)

1 (1) SYLVIA HERMON (N Ireland) (-)

1 (1) SPEAKER of the House of Commons (-)

- (3) Other Independents (down 3)



At present, the UK has been run by a coalition of 305 Conservatives, and 56 Liberal Democrats, total 361. That's well over half (325) the total seats in the Cmmons (650).

At this rate, whichever party gets the most seats is going to fall well short of an overall majority.

Even the Conservatives (279) plus the next largest party (Scottish Nats - 44) could only muster 323 - NOT a majority. In any case, the prospect that those two parties could co-operate to form a government seems negligible.

It's highly unlikely now that we'll get an In/Out referendum on our membership of the E.U. - Cameron only promised that IF he got an overall majority (highly unlikely accordng to the polls).

I think we might be in for a period of much more unsable government.

And probably Scotland will become an independent nation sooner rather than later

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Which Party do you want to win

Post by G-Unit on 09.03.15 13:29

I was speaking to someone this morning who said maybe Labour and the Conservatives will combine to form a government. Imagine that!

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by Richard IV on 09.03.15 13:40

Never believed we would get a referendum - Cameron knew darn well he was safe saying that.

So the only chance I have to disable Cameron is to vote Labour - Hobson`s choice indeed.

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Which Party do you want to win

Post by G-Unit on 09.03.15 13:43

How about Blacksmith's party? It's called the Dog Lover's Party and is dedicated to protecting the interests and memories of crime scene dogs.

http://blacksmithbureau.blogspot.co.uk/

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by plebgate on 10.03.15 10:24

@G-Unit wrote:I was speaking to someone this morning who said maybe Labour and the Conservatives will combine to form a government. Imagine that!
I can't see that happening, at least I pray it doesn't.

Sorry state of affairs that there will be another hung Parliament.     Voting for their interests mostly and not the people who put them into power.

Apparently the Parties are after the grey vote now.   I did hear Cameron say that the free bus passes will continue for over 65's.    I thought that people aged 60 and over were entitled to them at the mo. so already the goalposts are being moved.

I suppose he could defend it by saying that as people are being forced to work until they are 66 and over then the gen. public should not fund transport to get into work UNLIKE OF COURSE the greedy grabbers who hold power who get EVERYTHING free, even up til now the TV licence apparently.   Who knew that?

Work til you drop and then prepare for your box.   They seem to be well happy with that.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by Tony Bennett on 10.03.15 10:40

@plebgate wrote:
Apparently the Parties are after the grey vote now.   I did hear Cameron say that the free bus passes will continue for over 65's.    I thought that people aged 60 and over were entitled to them at the mo. so already the goalposts are being moved.
The free bus passes for those 60-plus were introduced by the last Labour government (2005-10), and it was one of their better welfare policies.

I use the buses a lot and I see for myself how over-60s make use of them to go out, socialise for coffee in town etc. etc. - very good policy that promotes 'getting out and about' for the 60+ group and also benefits the ecomony - they then spend the money saved in shops, cafes and on entertainments.

Some time early in the Conservative government, new applicants for 'bus passes had to be 65, instead of 60. Hard luck on all the 59-year-olds who were looking forward to their free bus passes>

Voting intention

An excellent place to keep daily track of voting intention is on this Wikipedia site:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

It bascially shows a narrowing Labour lead in January and February until the ComRes/Daily Mail poll on 20th-23rd February.

Since then, the Conservatives have led in the polls more than Labour.

The last two polls put the Conservatives ahead by 4% [35% to 31% in one poll, 34% to 30% in the other].

I think the maths are that even with a 4% majority of the overall vote, they would still fail to secure an outright majority

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by plebgate on 11.03.15 9:01

Thanks for that info. Tony.   Yes, free bus passes are a great idea I think and certainly do help the economy and get people out and about meeting others instead of sitting in their homes feeling isolated without speaking to others for days on end in some cases.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by aquila on 11.03.15 10:23

@plebgate wrote:Thanks for that info. Tony.   Yes, free bus passes are a great idea I think and certainly do help the economy and get people out and about meeting others instead of sitting in their homes feeling isolated without speaking to others for days on end in some cases.
My Mum died in 2002 and she had a bus pass. I'm not sure the dates of introduction of this valuable (really valuable on every social level) is correct.

Australia value its senior citizens. Concessions for seniors are a way of life. Health and happiness is promoted for seniors. It's a right of passage. Seniors are respected. As for UK....seniors are often lonely and disenfranchised, they are portrayed as sick, clogging up the NHS etc.

There is nothing much different about Australia and UK when it comes to small families where there is little 'large family' support. People will no doubt blame it on the weather. I blame it on absolutely sod all being done for seniors to promote not only their well-being but their continuing ability to contribute to a society that is being fooled into seeing them as irritants with poor health.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by Tony Bennett on 11.03.15 10:36

@G-Unit wrote:The way Farage and UKIP are portrayed reminds me of how Tony Benn used to be treated; harmless lunatic, let's all laugh at him. That usually means they're seen as a threat to the status quo.
Yes - and it's now emerged that a core strategy of the Edward Heath government (1970-4) was to portray those opposed to our membership of what was then called 'The Common Market' as nutters and fruitcakes. They did this by constantly giving us images of Tony Benn and Enoch Powell as 'the face of the swivel-eyed loons who want to get us out of the Common Market'.

The E.U. is sclerotic, stagnant, regulation-bound, and fundamentally undemocratic. Its programme of interference in the affairs of the Ukraine has led directly to the current conflict in eastern Ukraine.

As for its flagship 'single currency' project, the euro, it is dropping in value like a stone at the moment.

Here's its performance against the pound in the last 12 months:




Nearly everybody I know would prefer to live in their own house rather than in a commune.

But a commune - inefficient, badly-run, quarrelsome - and always baling out the lazybones in the community who dson't and won't pull their weight - is exactly what the E.U. has become.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by aquila on 11.03.15 10:52

@Tony Bennett wrote:
@G-Unit wrote:The way Farage and UKIP are portrayed reminds me of how Tony Benn used to be treated; harmless lunatic, let's all laugh at him. That usually means they're seen as a threat to the status quo.
Yes - and it's now emerged that a core strategy of the Edward Heath government (1970-4) was to portray those opposed to our membership of what was then called 'The Common Market' as nutters and fruitcakes. They did this by constantly giving us images of Tony Benn and Enoch Powell as 'the face of the swivel-eyed loons who want to get us out of the Common Market'.

The E.U. is sclerotic, stagnant, regulation-bound, and fundamentally undemocratic. Its programme of interference in the affairs of the Ukraine has led directly to the current conflict in eastern Ukraine.

As for its flagship 'single currency' project, the euro, it is dropping in value like a stone at the moment.

Here's its performance against the pound in the last 12 months:




Nearly everybody I know would prefer to live in their own house rather than in a commune.

But a commune - inefficient, badly-run, quarrelsome - and always baling out the lazybones in the community who dson't and won't pull their weight - is exactly what the E.U. has become.
At the risk of being once again labelled something or other phobic, I believe Enoch Powell was correct. He may not have put things across in the best way but he was right.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by whatsupdoc on 11.03.15 14:13

@aquila wrote:
Snipped...
At the risk of being once again labelled something or other phobic, I believe Enoch Powell was correct. He may not have put things across in the best way but he was right.

Enoch Powell was one of the brightest politicians I've ever known. He was a clear thinker and spoke his mind where many politicians feel bullied and obliged to toe the party line.

Enoch was right...you can't get 10 gallons into a pint pot. The UK is a small place and can't support unlimited people, especially food, utilities and benefits.

But, as in much of politics , there was a deal on the table...tea for immigration.

Then , much later,  the EU followed with the problems we have now.



I also suspect Gordon Brown did some sort of deal re the Lisbon Treaty and the Madeleine McCann investigation as GA was swiftly pulled off the case. How can we expect a truthful outcome when politicians are just Wheeler/Dealers filling their pockets on the way.  sad

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by aquila on 11.03.15 21:20

@whatsupdoc wrote:
@aquila wrote:
Snipped...
At the risk of being once again labelled something or other phobic, I believe Enoch Powell was correct. He may not have put things across in the best way but he was right.

Enoch Powell was one of the brightest politicians I've ever known. He was a clear thinker and spoke his mind where many politicians feel bullied and obliged to toe the party line.

Enoch was right...you can't get 10 gallons into a pint pot. The UK is a small place and can't support unlimited people, especially food, utilities and benefits.

But, as in much of politics , there was a deal on the table...tea for immigration.

Then , much later,  the EU followed with the problems we have now.



I also suspect Gordon Brown did some sort of deal re the Lisbon Treaty and the Madeleine McCann investigation as GA was swiftly pulled off the case. How can we expect a truthful outcome when politicians are just Wheeler/Dealers filling their pockets on the way.  sad
Enoch Powell wasn't a racist.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by Tony Bennett on 16.03.15 23:53

@Tony Bennett wrote:

Voting intention

An excellent place to keep daily track of voting intention is on this Wikipedia site:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
On the above site, 23 different opinion polls in March so far are recorded.

10 of those give a Consevative lead
9 give a Labour lead
4 were tied.

Poll results were:

Conservative - from 29% to 36% ave 32.5%
Labour - from 29% to 35% ave 32%
UKIP - from 9% to 18% ave 13.5%
Lib Dem - from 5% to 9% ave 7%
Greens - from 5% to 8% ave 6.5% 

Both major parties would fall well short of an overall majority on these figures

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Which Party do you want to win

Post by G-Unit on 17.03.15 7:59

These are the percentage figures from the 2010 election;

Conservative   36.1%
Labour            29%
Lib Dem          23%

Lib Dems in trouble. Can Farage improve enough to get the balance of of power? Can he provide enough candidates? Interesting.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by Montclair on 17.03.15 12:37

I'm not British but I simply do not understand how any of you here can even consider voting for UKIP when you know that they will do the same as the Tories, destroy the NHS. Do you all want the same system as in the US where you can go bankrupt and lose your house because you can't pay your medical bills? Very disappointing reading these results.

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Next Election

Post by G-Unit on 17.03.15 14:14

@Montclair wrote:I'm not British but I simply do not understand how any of you here can even consider voting for UKIP when you know that they will do the same as the Tories, destroy the NHS. Do you all want the same system as in the US where you can go bankrupt and lose your house because you can't pay your medical bills? Very disappointing reading these results.
Could you say how you know UKIP will destroy the NHS please?

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by aquila on 23.03.15 22:48

Amidst the most awful build-up to a general election it's patently clear that it's all about which party becomes bed-fellows with which other party.

Voting in UK is akin to hoping for a hearty meal but being forced to stand in line at a second rate buffet.

Where do you place your vote?

There isn't a single party with any gusto.

It's coalition all the way.

Homogenous Parliament.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by G-Unit on 23.03.15 23:58

Funny comment on 'The Wright Stuff' this morning. Someone said how the more the media etc. condemn UKIP the more popular they become. Perhaps the media are fed up of the main parties and are using reverse psychology on us ha ha.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by aquila on 24.03.15 0:04

@G-Unit wrote:Funny comment on 'The Wright Stuff' this morning. Someone said how the more the media etc. condemn UKIP the more popular they become. Perhaps the media are fed up of the main parties and are using reverse psychology on us ha ha.
The media run this country.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by whatsupdoc on 24.03.15 9:15

@aquila wrote:
@G-Unit wrote:Funny comment on 'The Wright Stuff' this morning. Someone said how the more the media etc. condemn UKIP the more popular they become. Perhaps the media are fed up of the main parties and are using reverse psychology on us ha ha.
The media run this country.

Agreed, aquila. BBC News started their new webpage yesterday which I don't like.

On the front page it had a plug for cheaper solar panels which could amount to 4% of the energy produced in UK by the end of the decade....nice if you can see the sun what with the chemtrails and the HAARP modifying the jetstream giving everyone unnatural weather.  It also said Ed Balls said Labour would not increase VAT... what an evil tax that is.
I have read that the best collection angle is only within 20 degrees and obviously should point south so many houses are not suitable for solar panels. It also takes several years to get your outlay money back.

Yes, the British media do try to ram their wishes down our throat.

So any chance of real news BBC?

I do like the Swiss method of elections whereby the voter gets the chance to tick many boxes on a wide range of topics and if enough people vote for it, then action is taken.  The revolving door system we have is just not working and should be scrapped.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by Tony Bennett on 25.03.15 20:41

@whatsupdoc wrote:
I do like the Swiss method of elections whereby the voter gets the chance to tick many boxes on a wide range of topics and if enough people vote for it, then action is taken.  The revolving door system we have is just not working and should be scrapped.
Swiss democracy is wonderful.

Every year the voters of Switzerland decide by majority vote on a range of issues what they want their government to do.

So basically, Swiss voters determine the policies, and their government is reduced to the role of an administrative executive carrying out the people's wishes.

Brilliant!  If only!

Back to the General Election, I've looked at the last 20 opinion polls, and taken an average of them, five at a time, over these periods:
Period 1: 11 to 13 March
Period 2: 13 to 17 March
Period 3: 17 to 21 March
Period 4: 21 to 24 March

These are the figures for each party:

Labour, average 33%
Periods 1 to 4: 32.8  > 33.4 > 33.6 >  33.6
Conservative, average 33%

Periods 1 to 4: 32.6  > 33.4  > 33.0  > 33.4

UKIP, average 14%
Perioids 1 to 4: 14.0 > 13.2 > 15.2 > 13.2
Liberal Democrats, average 8%

Periods 1 to 4: 7.6 > 7.4 > 8.4 > 8.2

Greens, average  5%
Periods 1 to 4:  5.2 > 5.8 > 5.0 >  5.4
Others, average 6%
Periods 1 to 4:  5.8 >  6.8 > 4.8 >  6.0

All of these stats tell us two simple things:

1. The two main parties are deadlocked at about 33% of the popular vote each (four of the last five published opinion polls predict a dead heat), and

2. There is no observable trend or movement in the relative strengths of the parties, and hasn't been for some time.


The stage looks set for either of the main parties to gain the most seats, with the Scottish Nationalists looking like they may hold the balance of power.

IMO that's not an attractive prospect for the next 5 years

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by Tony Bennett on 27.03.15 10:47

Who will win the most seats?

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

Most betting companies have the odds on the Conservatives winning most seats at 2/5 on or 4/11 on...

...while Labour is mostly at 7/4 or 15/8 against winning most seats

The odds that no party will get an overall majority are 1/5 on

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by BlueBag on 27.03.15 10:48

Banks and Corporations will win the most seats.

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Re: Which party do you want to win the next election?

Post by PeterMac on 27.03.15 16:24


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