Re: Digging to start next week (continuation of automatically locked thread) - UPDATE... starting today 2/6/14

[Guest]

[ProfessorPPlum]

Brilliant :-) 
I'm with PeterMac on this. I also don't think - statistically - Smithman is any more likely / unlikely than Tannerman. I err on the Occam's Razor principle: if you have time to plan how to cover up a death you opt for concealment. That means blue bags and fridges and disposal in ways that leave you smirking when interviewers refer to 'sightings'. It doesn't mean carrying dead children or decoys around in public.

[Bishop Brennan]

Portuguese press appear to be downplaying the events so far. They remain unimpressed.

http://joana-morais.blogspot.com/2014/06/maddie-case-false-grave-tricks-georadar.html

[sofieellis]

Sorry if I have put this on the wrong thread so please remove if I have,


I was reading a post recently ( cant remember exact words )  which mentioned the recent comment via a friend of the Mccann's that unless Madeleine's DNA is found they wont be returning to Portugal.....  the poster thought it was an odd comment for parents of a missing child to make, and so do I, you would think they would have said if they find her body - not her DNA

When you think about it, imo, it really is a very odd comment  and ranks among some other seemingly odd comments they have made...ie, The one where Gerry Mccann snapped " find the body" seemed odd at the time but it doesnt seem so odd now if you think about the more recent odd one about not returning to Portugal unless Madeleine's DNA is found.... unless her DNA is found ? Why say that ?  imo, if the Mccann's know for sure there is no body to be found,  then these two odd comments when put together would make sense  .....  was Gerry Mccann's subconscious mind coming to the front when he said DNA and not body ?

As I replied to those other posters, the quote actually reads like this:

But Kate and Gerry McCann have decided to stay away, a close pal has revealed.
The friend said: “They welcome the new phase of the investigation and hope it may lead them a step closer to finding out what happened to their daughter. They will be kept informed by Scotland Yard of any developments but they have no intention of going there. It is the last place they would want to be while digging takes place.
“It will be a hugely emotional time for Madeleine’s parents but it is a scenario they know needs to happen. They will only go to Portugal, God forbid, if any remains matching her DNA were found.”

Something over nothing.

I still think it's a bizarre thing to say. It's as if they're suggesting that a body would need to be DNA matched, before they would be interested in it. How many bodies do they expect SY to find?

[Bishop Brennan]

I still think it's a bizarre thing to say. It's as if they're suggesting that a body would need to be DNA matched, before they would be interested in it. How many bodies do they expect SY to find?

Well it seems that this area is popular as a pet cemetery, so there could be quite a few.  I doubt the McCanns knew that however, so the weird comment remains just that, weird - borderline suspicious.

And in a quote from the BBC website:  "Portuguese police sources told the BBC the search might be extended if there was a significant find. Officers are believed to have been surprised by the difficulty of the terrain, while the police also need to consider the disruption to local residents."

Two questions arise: 1 - Did nobody think to check the terrain before they sent the invasion force?  and 2 - How do they think tractorman/smellyman/burglarman managed to dig an impromptu grave there, with no spade or pick, that night?

[Praia]

AHHH!!! I am cursing like a sailor. I had a look at the Mail and was surprised how far down the Search story was BUT then I looked at the comments which I usually ignore. TM must have brought in reinforcements to lament over the poor parents and the nasty Portuguese.
It is so upsetting.

[NickE]

I don't think they will find anything. Maybe Smith met Gerry, but the girl was not Madeleine. Smithman was a smokescreen, the girl might be E.N or another look a like and Madeleine was already gone,probably earlier that day

[Bishop Brennan]

I don't think they will find anything. Maybe Smith met Gerry, but the girl was not Madeleine. Smithman was a smokescreen, the girl might be E.N or another look a like and Madeleine was already gone,probably earlier that day

It all depends on whether they have had specific information about a location. If this is a speculative dig, then of course nothing will be found - the odds against would be astronomic. But if they have had a tip-off (no evidence for that either), then there is a chance. The size of the task force suggests a tip off, but the lead-up press from SY about "despite best efforts, maybe we won't ever find out what happened" means that a big-budget photo-op finale cannot yet be completely ruled out.

[PeterMac]

Of cause you could be right and you're very knowledgeable on the subject so your opinions are more valuable than most, including mine... but..There were a lot of witnesses to Smithman , right time , the description of the man and the girl he was carrying seem far to much of a coincidence. Plus although not suspicious at the time there would be many more potential witnesses to walking round in daylight with a blue bag.

Firstly I don't think my opinion is any more valuable than anyone else's.
I also try not to have opinions, rather Itry to formulate hypotheses which are then to be tested against the available evidence - such as it is - and which fail if a piece of good evidence speaks against it.

I crtainly don't hold out that what I suggest is the definitive solution, or my pet theory, merely a possibility which seems to fit what we know at the moment.  But confusion is good, as someone once said.

Re Smithman, why would it be unusual for a father to carry a child back home from Creche / restaurant / pub around 9:20 - 10:30.  I don;t see that as too much of a coincidence, merely an observation.
That is, if we assume there was a Smithman (or indeed a Tannerman, which is also not quite as certain as we once thought)
Walking around during the day with a blue tennis bag, wearing tennis gear in a village absolutely stuffed with tennis courts is unlikely to draw anyone's attention
This shows at least 10 courts in the immediate walking area of Apartment 5A. Which potentially is 80 people, 40 on the courts and 40 arriving / leaving, all carrying tennis bags and in tennis gear.
They would stand out as much as someone carrying a child, or a beach towel. i.e. not at all.

" />

[Sceptic]

I don't think they will find anything. Maybe Smith met Gerry, but the girl was not Madeleine. Smithman was a smokescreen, the girl might be E.N or another look a like and Madeleine was already gone,probably earlier that day

It all depends on whether they have had specific information about a location.  If this is a speculative dig, then of course nothing will be found - the odds against would be astronomic.  But if they have had a tip-off (no evidence for that either), then there is a chance.  The size of the task force suggests a tip off, but the lead-up press from SY about "despite best efforts, maybe we won't ever find out what happened" means that a big-budget photo-op finale cannot yet be completely ruled out.  

The way i see it Tip off or not - if they find evidence of a cadaver once being at a location and are able to confirm by dna it was madeleines they still have to additionally find other evidence to link it to the perpertrator whoever that maybe

[DonNewbery]

I don't think they will find anything. Maybe Smith met Gerry, but the girl was not Madeleine. Smithman was a smokescreen, the girl might be E.N or another look a like and Madeleine was already gone,probably earlier that day

It all depends on whether they have had specific information about a location.  If this is a speculative dig, then of course nothing will be found - the odds against would be astronomic.  But if they have had a tip-off (no evidence for that either), then there is a chance.  The size of the task force suggests a tip off, but the lead-up press from SY about "despite best efforts, maybe we won't ever find out what happened" means that a big-budget photo-op finale cannot yet be completely ruled out.  

The way i see it Tip off or not - if they find evidence of a cadaver once being at a location and are able to confirm by dna it was madeleines they still have to additionally find other evidence to link it to the perpertrator whoever that maybe

You don't seem to have considered the possibility that one of the Tapas 9 (well, 7) spilt the beans some months ago, and what the police are now doing is looking for forensic evidence (human remains, or remains of clothes) to support whatever they may have been told.

[SchrodingersBody]

If you add to that the tip off or information itself, and wherever it came from. both I expect would have a degree of credibility.

If one of the tapas 7 has come forward and said, "this is what hapenned, look here to show i'm telling the truth", and that turns up further evidence, then it adds significantly to the available evidence. If it's phone data that they can link to somebody, again what they find is only part of it. If they find anything.
It all depends on what turns up, where it turns up, and why they knew where to look if it does turn up.

[Guest]

I don't think they will find anything. Maybe Smith met Gerry, but the girl was not Madeleine. Smithman was a smokescreen, the girl might be E.N or another look a like and Madeleine was already gone,probably earlier that day

It all depends on whether they have had specific information about a location.  If this is a speculative dig, then of course nothing will be found - the odds against would be astronomic.  But if they have had a tip-off (no evidence for that either), then there is a chance.  The size of the task force suggests a tip off, but the lead-up press from SY about "despite best efforts, maybe we won't ever find out what happened" means that a big-budget photo-op finale cannot yet be completely ruled out.  

The way i see it Tip off or not - if they find evidence of a cadaver once being at a location and are able to confirm by dna it was madeleines they still have to additionally find other evidence to link it to the perpertrator whoever that maybe

That depends who tipped them off.

If one of the tapas 7 has cracked and told the police everything, the dna is the corroborating evidence.

(DonNewbery & SchrodingersBody have faster typing fingers)

[figaro19]

de la cause, Vous pourriez Avoir raison et Qué Vous êtes Très bien Informé sur le sujet circonstancielle et déjà than Vos avis SONT ainsi Précieux Que les Autres, y COMPRIS le mien ... MAIS .. Il y avait Beaucoup de Témoins à Smithman, au bon moment, la Description de l'homme et la jeune fille qu'il portait Semble longe verser Beaucoup d'coïncidence juin. De plus, ralph Bien de Qué soupçonnent à l'époque il y aurait plus de Beaucoup de Témoins Potentiels à la marche Autour de la lumière du jour Avec Un sac bleu.

. Tout d'Abord, je ne Pense Pas Que mon opinion intérêt ainsi Précieux Qué N'importe QUI D'AUTRE
JE AUSSI essayer de nir Pas AVOIR des opinions Plutôt Itry à formuler des Hypothèses Qui SONT salle Être tested Contre les éléments de Preuve DISPONIBLES - tel qu'il est - et Qui échouera si juin morceau de Bonnes Preuves parle Contre Elle. crtainly je ne tiens Pas un CE Qué CE Que je propose intérêt la solution définitive, ous ma théorie verser animaux de compagnie, Savons simples UNE Possibilité Qui Semble correspondre à la CE de Qué Call for le moment. Maïs la confusion intérêt bon, Comme Quelqu'un l'a dit. Re Smithman, Pourquoi serait-il inhabituel verser non père de porter non enfant à la maison de Crèche / restaurant / pub Autour de 9:20-10:30. Je ne t voir Qué trop d'coïncidence juin, la simple observation juin. C'est, si l'supposons qu'il y en avait non Smithman (Voire non Tannerman, Qui pas n'est non plus de Tout un fait certain also Qué pensions nous) Se promener pendant la Journée Avec Un sac de tennis en bleu, portante des vêtements de tennis de Dans Un village ABSOLUMENT Bourré de Courts de Tennis Peu probable intérêt d'attirer l'attention de quiconque CELA Montre au Moins 10 tribunaux de la région à pied immédiate de l'appartement 5A. Qui est potentiellement 80 PERSONNES, 40 sur les Tribunaux et 40 Arrivee / Départ, Tous portante des sacs de ping et Dans Les engins de tennis. ILS se démarquer Autant Qué Quelqu'un portante Un Enfant, ous juin serviette de plage. C'EST à dire Pas du tout court. "/>

oui Maddie a été donné ou vendu 2 ou 3 mai, puis alerte et mise en scène 
un enlèvement ou de disparition. Abolissons peut être démarré comme ça ... 

[ChippyM]

There is talk of bones being found indicating a whitewash.

 If any bones were found in such an investigation (and I'm sure it's quite usual), would people just expect SY to leave them at the scene and not analyse them?  It wouldn't be very thorough would it? 

Of course the red tops want to print a grusome sounding headline too.

[Hongkong Phooey]

Of cause you could be right and you're very knowledgeable on the subject so your opinions are more valuable than most, including mine... but..There were a lot of witnesses to Smithman , right time , the description of the man and the girl he was carrying seem far to much of a coincidence. Plus although not suspicious at the time there would be many more potential witnesses to walking round in daylight with a blue bag.

Firstly I don't think my opinion is any more valuable than anyone else's.
I also try not to have opinions, rather Itry to formulate hypotheses which are then to be tested against the available evidence - such as it is - and which fail if a piece of good evidence speaks against it.

I crtainly don't hold out that what I suggest is the definitive solution, or my pet theory, merely a possibility which seems to fit what we know at the moment.  But confusion is good, as someone once said.

Re Smithman, why would it be unusual for a father to carry a child back home from Creche / restaurant / pub around 9:20 - 10:30.  I don;t see that as too much of a coincidence, merely an observation.
That is, if we assume there was a Smithman (or indeed a Tannerman, which is also not quite as certain as we once thought)
Walking around during the day with a blue tennis bag, wearing tennis gear in a village absolutely stuffed with tennis courts is unlikely to draw anyone's attention
This shows at least 10 courts in the immediate walking area of Apartment 5A. Which potentially is 80 people, 40 on the courts and 40 arriving / leaving, all carrying tennis bags and in tennis gear.
They would stand out as much as someone carrying a child, or a beach towel. i.e. not at all.

" />

The caveat to that scenario PM would imo be that carrying a near 4 year old child in a bag presumably using a shoulder strap, would be difficult / hard work to look remotely like just another tennis player. The sheer weight would surely stop you from attempting to carry it any real distance without looking suspicious. All imo

[Cristobell]

I don't think they will find anything. Maybe Smith met Gerry, but the girl was not Madeleine. Smithman was a smokescreen, the girl might be E.N or another look a like and Madeleine was already gone,probably earlier that day

It all depends on whether they have had specific information about a location.  If this is a speculative dig, then of course nothing will be found - the odds against would be astronomic.  But if they have had a tip-off (no evidence for that either), then there is a chance.  The size of the task force suggests a tip off, but the lead-up press from SY about "despite best efforts, maybe we won't ever find out what happened" means that a big-budget photo-op finale cannot yet be completely ruled out.  

The way i see it Tip off or not - if they find evidence of a cadaver once being at a location and are able to confirm by dna it was madeleines they still have to additionally find other evidence to link it to the perpertrator whoever that maybe

A body would wrap the case up, but I am guessing the circumstantial evidence is stacking up against the McCanns and a prosecution will go ahead regardless.  In the case of Suzanne Pilley, the police proceeded without a body, but were still able to gain a murder conviction.  One thing we can be sure of, is that both SY and the PJ have now eliminated every likely suspect in the Western Hemisphere, and only the McCanns are left.

[Liz Eagles]

@HongKongPhooey

....much easier to escape being noticed by using a buggy.

[ultimaThule]

Do my eyes deceive me?  I find it hard to believe that you're now singing from my hymnbook, Cristobell.      Have you any thoughts as to where the trial will be held and what the charge(s) will be?

[DurhamGuy1967]

Of cause you could be right and you're very knowledgeable on the subject so your opinions are more valuable than most, including mine... but..There were a lot of witnesses to Smithman , right time , the description of the man and the girl he was carrying seem far to much of a coincidence. Plus although not suspicious at the time there would be many more potential witnesses to walking round in daylight with a blue bag.

Firstly I don't think my opinion is any more valuable than anyone else's.
I also try not to have opinions, rather Itry to formulate hypotheses which are then to be tested against the available evidence - such as it is - and which fail if a piece of good evidence speaks against it.

I crtainly don't hold out that what I suggest is the definitive solution, or my pet theory, merely a possibility which seems to fit what we know at the moment.  But confusion is good, as someone once said.

Re Smithman, why would it be unusual for a father to carry a child back home from Creche / restaurant / pub around 9:20 - 10:30.  I don;t see that as too much of a coincidence, merely an observation.
That is, if we assume there was a Smithman (or indeed a Tannerman, which is also not quite as certain as we once thought)
Walking around during the day with a blue tennis bag, wearing tennis gear in a village absolutely stuffed with tennis courts is unlikely to draw anyone's attention
This shows at least 10 courts in the immediate walking area of Apartment 5A.  Which potentially is 80 people, 40 on the courts and 40 arriving / leaving, all carrying tennis bags and in tennis gear.
They would stand out as much as someone carrying a child, or a beach towel. i.e. not at all.

" />

The caveat to that scenario PM would imo be that carrying a near 4 year old child in a bag presumably using a shoulder strap, would be difficult / hard work to look remotely like just another tennis player. The sheer weight would surely stop you from attempting to carry it any real distance without looking suspicious. All imo

I agree with PM  that someone carrying a sports bag would not look suspicious at the time, but I still favour Smithman.  I'm interested in the bag, is there a link to another thread  I can read rather than going over issues that will already have been discussed?

[PeterMac]

oui Maddie a été donné ou vendu 2 ou 3 mai, puis alerte et mise en scène 
un enlèvement ou de disparition. Abolissons peut être démarré comme ça ... 

Peut étre. Je ne sais pas encore.

[HelenMeg]

I don't think they will find anything. Maybe Smith met Gerry, but the girl was not Madeleine. Smithman was a smokescreen, the girl might be E.N or another look a like and Madeleine was already gone,probably earlier that day

It all depends on whether they have had specific information about a location.  If this is a speculative dig, then of course nothing will be found - the odds against would be astronomic.  But if they have had a tip-off (no evidence for that either), then there is a chance.  The size of the task force suggests a tip off, but the lead-up press from SY about "despite best efforts, maybe we won't ever find out what happened" means that a big-budget photo-op finale cannot yet be completely ruled out.  

The way i see it Tip off or not - if they find evidence of a cadaver once being at a location and are able to confirm by dna it was madeleines they still have to additionally find other evidence to link it to the perpertrator whoever that maybe

You don't seem to have considered the possibility that one of the Tapas 9 (well, 7) spilt the beans some months ago, and what the police are now doing is looking for forensic evidence (human remains, or remains of clothes) to support whatever they may have been told.

I dont think they will find anything at all. I also believe Smithman carried a decoy child, most likely daughter of JT. I think M went from apartment to flower bed to freezer.
It would be great / fantastic if a TAPAS 7 member had talked but I don't think that likely for one minute. I think we are doing a lot of wishful thinking which to be honest, is the only thing that prevents hopes from fading. I think it was Martin Hewitt that reinforced that this dig may not find anything but it may help to eliminate possible lines of enquiry - he seemed to wish to make that quite clear.

[Hongkong Phooey]

@HongKongPhooey

....much easier to escape being noticed by using a buggy.

Yes I agree...... now who was wandering about on the night of the 3rd with a buggy and just happened to bump into Gerry and also provide him with an alibi..... hmmm.

Carting the blue bag with such a 'content' around during the day would have been too difficult, the strain of the weight would have arose suspicion from those whi may have spotted him. IMO

[Bishop Brennan]

The caveat to that scenario PM would imo be that carrying a near 4 year old child in a bag presumably using a shoulder strap, would be difficult / hard work to look remotely like just another tennis player. The sheer weight would surely stop you from attempting to carry it any real distance without looking suspicious. All imo

You are probably talking about a weight of 15kg - the same as mid-sized suitcase. You wouldn't wish to go too far but carrying suitcase-weight is certainly within the capabilities of Gerry if he had been so inclined. The tricky part is then taking her out of the blue-bag and hiding her. Hard to see that being done in broad daylight in open ground... which tends to suggest that this version continues not with a shallow grave but rather a freezer somewhere within suitcase-carrying distance of 5A. Which in turn suggests that there is nothing to find in the current dig area (in this version).

[stillsloppingout]

My camera bag weighs a ton when I have 3 cameras lenses etc .inside 
putting a bag over your back the straps over your arms like a rucksack.you can carry the weight of a small child no problem .somebody Gerrys build  easier still.