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Case simplification

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Re: Case simplification

Post by worriedmum on 14.01.14 23:45

bobby18 ''
The unparalleled government intervention and unwavering media support is something I cannot fathom'' quote




I don't think the media support has been unwavering.IMO they will publish what they are allowed to but most importantly, they are there to sell newspapers and increase viewing figures. If you read the comments sections which follow recent articles, the posters' views are often quite at odds with the slant of the stories.

The government intervention may be a case of knowing some-one who can put a word in some-one's ear...followed by a snowball effect.

And of course sometimes the paths of politicians and of those in the media DO cross, as we know...

All IMO..
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Re: Case simplification

Post by bobby18 on 15.01.14 2:51

@worriedmum wrote:bobby18 ''
The unparalleled government intervention and unwavering media support is something I cannot fathom'' quote




I don't think the media support has been unwavering.IMO they will publish what they are allowed to but most importantly, they are there to sell newspapers and increase viewing figures. If you read the comments sections which follow recent articles, the posters' views are often quite at odds with the slant of the stories.

The government intervention may be a case of knowing some-one who can put a word in some-one's ear...followed by a snowball effect.

And of course sometimes the paths of politicians and of those in the media DO cross, as we know...

All IMO..

Fair points made - I hope you are on the right track.

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Re: Case simplification

Post by PeterMac on 15.01.14 8:28

@Casey5 wrote:I've thought often enough that Madeleine died prior to the third of May, giving the McCanns time to cover their tracks and have a rough idea of what they would say to the police, family, friends etc.
But, a big stumbling block for me is that on the 3rd May Madeleine was supposed to be alive. Therefore, unless all of the tapas 7 were in on it which I don't believe, then there is a chance that one or more of them would be at the creche, the tea table or somewhere else that Madeleine should have been and been able to say "hang on, I was there and saw Gerry, Kate and the twins but Madeleine wasn't there."
I know they all dithered and stuttered in their accounts but none of them would say when the last time was that they saw Madeleine, not even Diane Webster was sure. Surely on the day the child disappeared, that last sighting - if it was on that day - would have been to the forefront of their minds, even if it was just seeing her at the creche or witnessing Kate carrying Madeleine home because she was so tired.
Why didn't they know?
None of the Tapas group reports seeing Madeleine on 3rd. (In fact one talks of her playing tennis, but this is corrected firmly by her partner in the Rogatory. She has clearly got the day wrong, and this is explained at some length and very firmly) Remember that being the last person to see a missing person is a very tricky position to be in. Oldfield gets out of that quite quickly and leaves Gerry with the Honour.
The entire group were shipped off to the Paraiso in the afternoon, for the first and last time. Then we got all the nonsense about running along the beach to re-inforce that, and give them all alibis.This is followed by Kate returning to "Find them at tea" and at exactly the same time signing M out of the creche !
Then we have the try about M being exhausted - after an afternoon finger-painting ! - and having to be carried home.

And this in turn leave the Last Photo as the only 'evidence' of M 's being alive on 3rd.
And as we now know that Last Photo could not possibly have been taken on at lunchtime on 3rd. Wrong sort of weather.

Food for thought.

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Re: Case simplification

Post by Dr What on 15.01.14 10:49

If this theory is true, then that would leave at least one day to clean the apartment, plan how to remove the body from the apartment, whilst dragging in as many of the Tapas 7 into the web prior to disposal [possibly without the friends realising it at the time] by getting them  involved in checking and visiting the apartment with the intention of bolstering the illusion that Maddie was asleep and also generating a corporate 'guilt' [we're all partly responsible hence all in this together feeling].
Again, if true, then a massive weak link for them would be the day-time crèche.It would be essential to 'convince' the workers there that they had in fact, looked after Maddie that day, along with all the other children, convince them that they had done nothing wrong of course and not to worry if their memories and recollections on that day were clouded.But it would be essential to get them 'on board'.I believe there has been a meeting[s] with Cat Baker to offer her 'support'.

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Re: Case simplification

Post by HelenMeg on 15.01.14 12:37

@Dr What wrote:If this theory is true, then that would leave at least one day to clean the apartment, plan how to remove the body from the apartment, whilst dragging in as many of the Tapas 7 into the web prior to disposal [possibly without the friends realising it at the time] by getting them  involved in checking and visiting the apartment with the intention of bolstering the illusion that Maddie was asleep and also generating a corporate 'guilt' [we're all partly responsible hence all in this together feeling].
Again, if true, then a massive weak link for them would be the day-time crèche.It would be essential to 'convince' the workers there that they had in fact, looked after Maddie that day, along with all the other children, convince them that they had done nothing wrong of course and not to worry if their memories and recollections on that day were clouded.But it would be essential to get them 'on board'.I believe there has been a meeting[s] with Cat Baker to offer her 'support'.
Dr What - you have summarised the essence of the theory of 'death prior to 3rd May' extremely well, and the elements it would encompass.
I cannot comprehend that she died on the 3rd May.  It has to have happened prior to that. Yet Dr Amaral did ot seem to see it that way which puzzles me..

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Re: Case simplification

Post by tiny on 15.01.14 12:42

@HelenMeg wrote:
@Dr What wrote:If this theory is true, then that would leave at least one day to clean the apartment, plan how to remove the body from the apartment, whilst dragging in as many of the Tapas 7 into the web prior to disposal [possibly without the friends realising it at the time] by getting them  involved in checking and visiting the apartment with the intention of bolstering the illusion that Maddie was asleep and also generating a corporate 'guilt' [we're all partly responsible hence all in this together feeling].
Again, if true, then a massive weak link for them would be the day-time crèche.It would be essential to 'convince' the workers there that they had in fact, looked after Maddie that day, along with all the other children, convince them that they had done nothing wrong of course and not to worry if their memories and recollections on that day were clouded.But it would be essential to get them 'on board'.I believe there has been a meeting[s] with Cat Baker to offer her 'support'.
Dr What - you have summarised the essence of the theory of 'death prior to 3rd May' extremely well, and the elements it would encompass.
I cannot comprehend that she died on the 3rd May.  It has to have happened prior to that. Yet Dr Amaral did ot seem to see it that way which puzzles me..

Perhaps Dr Amaral was choosing his words very carefully
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Re: Case simplification

Post by Irisheyes on 15.01.14 12:55

If it were premeditated or she died earlier in the week I would have thought they wouldn't have made such a mess of their story-shutters/doors/locks. It all reeks of panic.

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Re: Case simplification

Post by notlongnow on 15.01.14 13:10

@Irisheyes wrote:If it were premeditated or she died earlier in the week I would have thought they wouldn't have made such a mess of their story-shutters/doors/locks. It all reeks of panic.
Yes,it does smack of panic to me to.

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Re: Case simplification

Post by Guest on 15.01.14 13:20

Perhaps Gerry bumping into J. Wilkins disrupted the evening's plans?
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Re: Case simplification

Post by Research_Reader on 15.01.14 13:22

Ladyinred wrote:Perhaps Gerry bumping into J. Wilkins disrupted the evening's plans?

Perhaps the original plan was for him to go around the back and monkey around with the window shutters a bit, to make it look like they'd been broken into?

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Re: Case simplification

Post by Guest on 15.01.14 13:26

@notlongnow wrote:
@Irisheyes wrote:If it were premeditated or she died earlier in the week I would have thought they wouldn't have made such a mess of their story-shutters/doors/locks. It all reeks of panic.
Yes,it does smack of panic to me to.

IMO For there to have been forensic evidence of an entry through the window then SOMEONE would have had to have climbed in through the window. And jemmied the shutters.
Either TM decided that it would have been too risky to have done that themselves (and maybe be seen) or they just didn't anticipate that the Portugese police would be so thorough as to be able to dismiss this possibility.
And it was this mistake from which all the mess of the doors and locks, changing of statements with route of entry, curtains, shutters, gusts of wind, etc etc followed.
One little mistake. One oversight. And they have been covering up ever since.
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Re: Case simplification

Post by HelenMeg on 15.01.14 14:30

@Irisheyes wrote:If it were premeditated or she died earlier in the week I would have thought they wouldn't have made such a mess of their story-shutters/doors/locks. It all reeks of panic.

Well, initially, they probably thought that would be the easy part - faking the abduction.  They would have had2 days (give or take) to plan:

1. The story
2. Who would they let in on the secret
3. Body removal / storage
4. Body concealment
5. Transport
6. Hiding places
7. Cleaning of apartment - getting all the cleaning stuff without looking suspiciious
8. Creche manipulation
9. Clothes
10. Twin care

the list is endless - this is a big project  to manage  - not surprising they messed up in a few areas.  Thinking of all the different aspects and planning for them would be absolutely impossible if she had died on 3rd May. Also think of Gerry's character. He is not stupid at all, the minute she died and they made the decision to conceal he would have started planning. Most certainly he would NOT have said ' lets go for an abduction story and stage it tonight'.  He would maybe have said ' this is gonna take some planning'.  Also, I remember reading a few times about them possibly doing a trial run of the abduction the previous night...

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Re: Case simplification

Post by HelenMeg on 15.01.14 14:42

Just thinking back to where the dogs alerted in the apartment indicates that the body was temporarily stored in the bedroom cupboard, then possibly fridge..  they couldn't immediately
get the body out of the apartment. They had to think 'how' and 'when'....

Remember that old story about the 'fridge' and them taking a fridge out of the apartment somewhere cos it didn't work... either that was a story they publicized as a red herring or  it was true and Gerry did actually remove  the fridge and take it to the tip...   

If  you put yourself in their position (or Gerry's as he is the decision maker) then you would first need to get the body out of the apartment to a temporary resting place. Someone would need to be caring for the twins and making it look to the outside world as if all was ok.  Hence all the little bits of life such as Kate jogging so that she could be seen, appearances at tennis etc etc. The creche signings in would be fairly simple
as they would not be heavily regulated or monitored.  Then you would need to thoroughly clean the blood out of the apartment. Did they not cancel their cleaning lady on one day? This would have to be done so thoroughly.  Where did they purchase the cleaning stuff / bleach? Not on the Ocean complex....

There needs to be a reconstruction of someone acting out the scenario that Gerry and Kate would face when she died. A reconstruction in which the players would find themselves faced with that situation and decide how to deal with it... I'm sure that would lead to some good results..

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Re: Case simplification

Post by HelenMeg on 15.01.14 14:47

Why dont we stage our own 'improvised'  reconstruction  - online?  spin 

The people's reconstruction - a new phenomenon - then pass the results to SY

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Re: Case simplification

Post by Guest on 15.01.14 14:50

@Research_Reader wrote:
Ladyinred wrote:Perhaps Gerry bumping into J. Wilkins disrupted the evening's plans?

Perhaps the original plan was for him to go around the back and monkey around with the window shutters a bit, to make it look like they'd been broken into?

Or perhaps alarm actions were an hour early? Summertime time difference or something?
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Re: Case simplification

Post by Miraflores on 15.01.14 15:21

There is no time difference between the UK and Portugal.
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Re: Case simplification

Post by Doug D on 15.01.14 15:23

If GM was going walkabout with M or substitute, he wouldn't have wanted to do the shutters too early as someone might actually have seen them & raised the alarm too early, so it would have needed to be 'last minute' and he may have run out of time or forgotten.

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Re: Case simplification

Post by Research_Reader on 15.01.14 15:26

I think there must have been some deviation from the original plan around that time hence Jane Tanner's ridiculous sighting, and the subsequent way that Gerry disagreed with where he was standing.

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Re: Case simplification

Post by tigger on 15.01.14 17:01

MarcoG wrote:
@Research_Reader wrote:
Ladyinred wrote:Perhaps Gerry bumping into J. Wilkins disrupted the evening's plans?

Perhaps the original plan was for him to go around the back and monkey around with the window shutters a bit, to make it look like they'd been broken into?

Or perhaps alarm actions were an hour early? Summertime time difference or something?

You've still got a point there. What if the time was set for say 10.30 and a contact prepared in the UK started the ball rolling at 9.30, thinking it was 10.30 in the Portugal? A short message from the UK, (eg. info sent to sky and BBC) would start a major panic.Then that would explain the too early witness statements very nicely.
- and from then on it was all downhill.  winkwink 

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Re: Case simplification

Post by whatliesbehindthesofa on 15.01.14 17:34

@tigger wrote:
You've still got a point there. What if the time was set for say 10.30 and a contact prepared in the UK started the ball rolling at 9.30, thinking it was  10.30 in the  Portugal?   A short message from the UK, (eg. info sent to sky and BBC) would start a major panic.Then that would explain the too early witness statements very nicely.
- and from then on it was all downhill.  winkwink 

If they were going to so much trouble it seems a little amiss of them not to bother to check time differences.

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Re: Case simplification

Post by Research_Reader on 15.01.14 17:38

A key question is how many people were 'in on it', either before, during and after?

Not just the Tapas group, but do we need to account for the strange facts around the babysitters, Murat, Malinka, and the various people-in-power who subsequently helped them? (The latter perhaps are merely a consequence of the owners of the Ocean Club and their PR and governmental connections being called on to do a PR-limitation exercise for the hotel.

If we CAN eliminate most of the above, then the case does indeed become significantly simpler.

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Re: Case simplification

Post by ultimaThule on 15.01.14 17:45

@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
@tigger wrote:
You've still got a point there. What if the time was set for say 10.30 and a contact prepared in the UK started the ball rolling at 9.30, thinking it was  10.30 in the  Portugal?   A short message from the UK, (eg. info sent to sky and BBC) would start a major panic.Then that would explain the too early witness statements very nicely.
- and from then on it was all downhill.  winkwink 

If they were going to so much trouble it seems a little amiss of them not to bother to check time differences.
This is why it bears all the hallmarks of an amateur production.
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Re: Case simplification

Post by PeterMac on 15.01.14 17:52

@HelenMeg wrote: Where did they purchase the cleaning stuff / bleach? Not on the Ocean complex....
The supermarket is just down the road from the Tapas / pool entrance. No distance at all.

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Re: Case simplification

Post by Guest on 15.01.14 17:56

@tigger wrote:
MarcoG wrote:
@Research_Reader wrote:
Ladyinred wrote:Perhaps Gerry bumping into J. Wilkins disrupted the evening's plans?

Perhaps the original plan was for him to go around the back and monkey around with the window shutters a bit, to make it look like they'd been broken into?

Or perhaps alarm actions were an hour early? Summertime time difference or something?

You've still got a point there. What if the time was set for say 10.30 and a contact prepared in the UK started the ball rolling at 9.30, thinking it was  10.30 in the  Portugal?   A short message from the UK, (eg. info sent to sky and BBC) would start a major panic.Then that would explain the too early witness statements very nicely.
- and from then on it was all downhill.  winkwink 

Something like that, yes, just a thought. A mistake by an hour would really sc$#w things up, with accomplices still running around with toddlerlike objects* uncomfortably shouldered. *UTO's
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Re: Case simplification

Post by mysterion on 15.01.14 17:56

If there were significant people that needed protection then abduction would keep investigations external to MW. Didn`t work out that way because of that "pesky" Dr Amaral who was "moved on". Fortunately for MW, he was focussed on the McCanns.

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