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Alternative hypothesis (1).

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Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Lance De Boils on 09.07.13 22:27

Let it not be said that we, on this forum, cannot hold a balanced and unbiased discussion. I think it is fair to say that none of us here knows exactly what happened and seek only the truth.
I am sure we would all love to one day find out that Madeleine is, in fact, safe and well and unharmed. However, the evidence that we have available to us does make that a very difficult outcome to believe possible.

One of the huge stumbling blocks (of which there are many,) is the undeniable presence of blood and "eau de cadaver."
The dogs did not lie. They told it as it was. They are highly trained by skilled handlers.

I propose that it is safe to say that the items and places indicated by the dogs were indeed contaminated with the scents of blood and death.

The big question is, where did it come from?

The obvious answer is, of course, Maddie.

But could it have come from anywhere else? Let's test another hypothesis....

Alternative Hypothesis:
When the McCanns hired the Scenic, one of the the child seats they hired was contaminated.
This got on to one of the twins' clothes, Kate's hands and clothes. When the twins weren't in the car, maybe other items were placed on the backseats.
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Guest on 09.07.13 22:34

As in a child seat contaminated by "a" [another] dead child ...? Where are you heading?
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Guest on 09.07.13 22:37

What about the blood between the tiles, that couldn't come from a car seat.  Or the faint smell of cadaver in the flower bed?
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Lance De Boils on 09.07.13 22:44

I'm not heading anywhere, Chateleine. Just testing alternatives.
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Guest on 09.07.13 22:48

Lance De Boils wrote:I'm not heading anywhere, Chateleine. Just testing alternatives.
***
I live under the impression that the rental history of the car has been carefully checked. So how could [human!] cadaver scent get in a child seat?
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Lance De Boils on 09.07.13 22:52

candyfloss wrote:What about the blood between the tiles, that couldn't come from a car seat.  Or the faint smell of cadaver in the flower bed?

 Erm... well, I guess the blood could have been from a previous, minor incident.
Not sure how the flower bed odour could be explained...  unless the car seat was taken out of the car and placed there...? confused
Or from water used to rinse something that had been in contact with the seat....?

[Hmmm.... the flower bed does complicate things!]
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Woofer on 09.07.13 22:52

I think Lance de boils was just testing a hypothesis - good idea as it gets doubts eliminated.

Was there evidence of cleaning fluid in the sample of blood from between the tiles?

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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by PeterMac on 09.07.13 23:15

It is important to test any theory.
That is how scientific method works
You do not dismiss out of hand, or because you have read in a book that it is wrong - you test and show that is either impossible, in which case the hypothesises fails
Or possible - in which case you keep devising ever more cunning plans to throw it off course.   and the more plans you devise the better.
It is surely now accepted that water is made up of two atoms of hydrogen to one atom of oxygen.
It started as an hypothesis, became a Theory, and now is an accepted fact.

[Came across a lovely one tonight - JBS Haldane, asked what would convince him the the Theory of Evolution was not correct said - fossil rabbits in the pre-Cambrian)

So any theory, or hypothesis is deserving of scrutiny.

(Just as is Doughnut MacIntyre's brilliant demolition of every part of the "official Version of the Truth".  For which Donal, many thanks.  Many of us want to make this into a farce, but for other reasons are constrained by the knowledge that a little girl is missing, presumed dead.  You are allowed to make it funny, and to poke fun at all the stupid and stuffy "official stories" from stupid and stuffy "official people" and for that we owe you our thanks.  Comedians, Jongleurs, and the rest, through the centuries, have been the release valve for tensions within the population.  You are the people licensed to to do this.  So keep it up.)

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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Guest on 09.07.13 23:24

I agree, Peter, and you too Lance, that things should be tested over and over again.
However, then please reply to my question re your
"Alternative Hypothesis: When the McCanns hired the Scenic, one of the the child seats they hired was contaminated. This got on to one of the twins' clothes, Kate's hands and clothes. When the twins weren't in the car, maybe other items were placed on the backseats.":
How DID cadaver odour get into the child seat? IMO a not unimportant part of the "alternative theory".
WHO died, was dead in there?
And - why didn't PJ check that out? Just as they checked out that there was no documented death in apartment 5A.
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Sceneset on 09.07.13 23:34

Gerry had stated that Madeleine had had a nose beed. Perhaps the the blood on the/ under the tiles / car were from that ( and the bleach was to clean it up) and the fine mist sprays of blood on the walls were due to coughing during a nosebleed.
Maybe all the cadaverine on the clothing and wardrobe etc were from Kate's contact with deceased patients. To wear unwashed work clothing in holiday is unlikely but possible. If cadaver odour is transferable from washed clothing that could be reasonable.
Has anyone ever seen verification that Kate actually attended deaths before the holiday? If not it would be difficult to account for the cadaver unless Kate came into contact with a corpse or cross contaminated cadaverine from another source eg She sat on a bench/ airport bus/ plane seat where someone had died and between how ever long cadaverine can linger in the Uk or Portugal and the apartment/ car.

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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by bobbin on 09.07.13 23:41

Sceneset wrote:Gerry had stated that Madeleine had had a nose beed. Perhaps the the blood on the/ under the tiles / car were from that ( and the bleach was to clean it up) and the fine mist sprays of blood on the walls were due to coughing during a nosebleed.
Maybe all the cadaverine on the clothing and wardrobe etc were from Kate's contact with deceased patients. To wear unwashed work clothing in holiday is unlikely but possible. If cadaver odour is transferable from washed clothing that could be reasonable.
Has anyone ever seen verification that Kate actually attended deaths before the holiday? If not it would be difficult to account for the cadaver unless Kate came into contact with a corpse or cross contaminated cadaverine from another source eg She sat on a bench/ airport bus/ plane seat where someone had died and between how ever long cadaverine can linger in the Uk or Portugal and the apartment/ car.
Does dried blood from a live person carry the distinctive traits of 'dead' blood from a dead person?
A chemical reaction takes place on death which is recorded in the 'tissues' but is this reaction also evident in blood (red blood corpuscles/ lymph etc.) of a dead person ?
If this is not correct please can someone correct this. Thanks.

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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Guest on 09.07.13 23:46

Sceneset wrote: [...]
Has anyone ever seen verification that Kate actually attended deaths before the holiday? If not it would be difficult to account for the cadaver unless Kate came into contact with a corpse or cross contaminated cadaverine from another source eg She sat on a bench/ airport bus/ plane seat where someone had died and between how ever long cadaverine can linger in the Uk or Portugal and the apartment/ car.
***
Aha.
And then after sitting on a contaminated bench, she transferred 2nd hand cadaver smell to two places in the apartment, a child's T-shirt, the rented car, the key-fob, the cuddlecat, the flower bed ... She must have been on a roll ...

I use this opportunity to wish you all good night smilie 
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Sceneset on 10.07.13 0:46

I don't think blood detection dogs can tell if blood us from a cadaver or not Bobbin but rather detect decomposing blood.This is interesting.May I post a quote? Please delete if not allowed.



Imagine that you have a nosebleed
and a few drops of blood fall on your
shirt or sweater. You take the piece of
clothing off and put it in the washing
machine. After washing it, you hang the shirt
or sweater on a clothesline to dry. You’re quite
happy about the fact that the blood came out, seemingly without a trace, and that your garment is clean once again. But that is exactly where a dog’s trained nose will prove the human eye wrong. An appropriately trained detection dog can identify blood residue even on laundered clothing.

That’s not all the dog can do. Perhaps a few drops of blood also dripped onto your bathroom’s tiled floor. The blood cannot soak into the tiles, so cleaning it up with a wet rag is relatively easy. Once again, however, it appears clean only to the human eye. After intensely sniffing
every tile, our cadaver detection dogs can detect with 90 percent reliability exactly which one had blood on it and indicate by scratching on the tile with their paws.
This relatively new specialty has an excellent prognosis for the future. Regardless of whether detectives are look- ing for a murder weapon, for the perpetrator’s or victim’s clothing, for where a victim was kept, or even for a vehi- cle in which the victim was transported after a crime has
been committed, the cadaver detection dog is an extremely valuable police tool and investiga-
tive partner when it comes to solving crimes against human life and welfare. Unfortunately, the police agencies
that have dogs have limited time and space to invest in this area of research. For that reason I must defer questions regarding the scope of what is possible in detection dog work in human
secretions (blood, semen, and other bodily fluids). On the one hand, I
believe that it is conceivable that a surface or object contaminated with blood can be
identified and indicated years later by a detection dog if conditions are favorable. On the other hand, unfavorable conditions (weather, surface characteristics, cover-up scents, and so on) may renBdYer tThEe DscenDtAofU S contamination undetectable only hours later 


Caninesearchsolutions.com

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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Lance De Boils on 10.07.13 8:06

Indeed, my intention is purely to discuss any other possibilities - if only to rule them out as impossible or unfeasible. If we can say we've eliminated all other alternatives, it would serve to strengthen the argument that the cadaver odour must have come from Madeleine AND that it got there by the hand of the McCanns.

The car seats hired along with the car are unlikely to have been brand new. They would have been used plenty of times before.

Now, just supposing a deceased Madeleine was removed. What better way of transporting a dead child than strapping them into place in a car seat? Especially if she was, as alleged, small for her age. To any onlooker, the child would just appear to be sleeping. Kids often fall asleep in the car seats. No suspicion raised, even if the driver had to stop for petrol, say. Hidden in full view, in other words.

So I think it is worth considering whether the scent came from a car seat.

So, I would suggest that for the sake of being thorough, it'd be worth establishing, if at all possible, who else had hired cars with car seats from that company, between 28th April and the date of the dog inspection.

Oh, and as for why the PJ didn't test the car seats... maybe it didn't occur to them. Or maybe they did and we just don't know about it. Who knows?
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by russiandoll on 10.07.13 9:17

Agree, eliminate the impossible and even if what you are left with appears improbable, there is the truth.
  The place to start is to establish if in fact Kate did come into contact with corpses before the holiday. It was mentioned in the papers and we criticise their coverage of this case. We can't accept reports which suit our theories. So what is in the files about this issue?

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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Guest on 10.07.13 9:41

russiandoll wrote:Agree, eliminate the impossible and even if what you are left with appears improbable, there is the truth.
  The place to start is to establish if in fact Kate did come into contact with corpses before the holiday. It was mentioned in the papers and we criticise their coverage of this case. We can't accept reports which suit our theories. So what is in the files about this issue?

I don't know if it is in the files.


However, as Harold Shipman was jailed for causing 15 deaths in 2000, I would have expected a part-time gp attending 6 (was it 6?) deaths to have set all sorts of alarm bells ringing.
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Guest on 10.07.13 9:47

According to the PJ files KM was on Maternity leave when the letter in link below was written, ie 16 May 2008.  The twins were around 22 months old when Madeleine disappeared and this is one year on.  So was she on maternity leave from the time the twins were born up to May 2008, nearly 3 years?  In which case she would not be in contact with any patients.   I have never understood this.

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MCCANNS_BACKGROUND.htm
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Lance De Boils on 10.07.13 9:52

russiandoll wrote:Agree, eliminate the impossible and even if what you are left with appears improbable, there is the truth.
  The place to start is to establish if in fact Kate did come into contact with corpses before the holiday. It was mentioned in the papers and we criticise their coverage of this case. We can't accept reports which suit our theories. So what is in the files about this issue?

 Yes, we should try and rule that out as a possibility, if we can.

Perhaps obituaries in the local paper might give a clue as to how many deaths there were in that area within the week before 28th April. I haven't got time to look right now. (Though I'm not sure how knowing will help...)

Candyfloss: Perhaps she did some locum/on-call work whilst she was on maternity leave?
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by AndyB on 10.07.13 9:55

Poe wrote:
However, as Harold Shipman was jailed for causing 15 deaths in 2000, I would have expected a part-time gp attending 6 (was it 6?) deaths to have set all sorts of alarm bells ringing.
Not necessarily. She could have been in contact with cadavers as a result of certifying perfectly natural deaths.

This thread seems to be at risk of conflating blood and cadaver one detecting dogs. I thought they were separate specialisms.

The other question is how easy is it to transfer detectable amounts of cadaverine (and blood for that matter) from surface to surface? For me this runs to the heart of Lances hypothesis[/quote]

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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by russiandoll on 10.07.13 10:00

AndyB wrote:
Poe wrote:
russiandoll wrote:
However, as Harold Shipman was jailed for causing 15 deaths in 2000, I would have expected a part-time gp attending 6 (was it 6?) deaths to have set all sorts of alarm bells ringing.
Not necessarily. She could have been in contact with cadavers as a result of certifying perfectly natural deaths.

This thread seems to be at risk of conflating blood and cadaver one detecting dogs. I thought they were separate specialisms.

The other question is how easy is it to transfer detectable amounts of cadaverine (and blood for that matter) from surface to surface? For me this runs to the heart of Lances hypothesis

  AndyB     I did not make the comment which you attribute to me, above. It is not my opinion at all. I have actually posted that I do not know if it is a fact that Kate attended or said that she attended any deaths prior to her holiday.

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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by AndyB on 10.07.13 10:15

You're right - sorry it was poor editing on my part. I've edited my post to remove reference to you

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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Guest on 10.07.13 10:22

russiandoll wrote:
AndyB wrote:
Poe wrote:
russiandoll wrote:
However, as Harold Shipman was jailed for causing 15 deaths in 2000, I would have expected a part-time gp attending 6 (was it 6?) deaths to have set all sorts of alarm bells ringing.
Not necessarily. She could have been in contact with cadavers as a result of certifying perfectly natural deaths.

This thread seems to be at risk of conflating blood and cadaver one detecting dogs. I thought they were separate specialisms.

The other question is how easy is it to transfer detectable amounts of cadaverine (and blood for that matter) from surface to surface? For me this runs to the heart of Lances hypothesis

  AndyB     I did not make the comment which you attribute to me, above. It is not my opinion at all. I have actually posted that I do not know if it is a fact that Kate attended or said that she attended any deaths prior to her holiday.

russiandoll, In this Sun artical KM insist she attended six deaths prior to holiday.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/madeleine/1651651/Kate-and-Gerry-McCann-wrongly-names-as-suspects-over-Maddie-disappearance-by-Portuguese-police-after-sniffer-dog-evidence.html

Also disscussed in DNA on clothing thread.
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by PeterMac on 10.07.13 10:27

1 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/the-mccanns-unbelievabletruth-or-unimaginable-nightmare-13476726.html
The McCanns: Unbelievable truth or unimaginable nightmare?
Madeleine's parents have returned home to a storm of allegations, leaks and
accusations. Cole Moreton and Ian Herbert in Praia da Luz sift the evidence
Monday, 17 September 2007
What was in the hire car?
The silver Renault Scenic was examined by a sniffer dog trained to detect any
scent of a corpse, and police sources say they saw the dog "going crazy". Mrs
McCann has said that as a GP she was with corpses before the holiday, so
traces of them may still have been on her clothes. But the big breakthrough, the
media claimed, was Madeleine's hair and bodily fluids being found in the car

2 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/scapegoatsmccanns-reject-compelling-new-police-evidence-13385012.html
According to the McCann family, detectives asked why a British-trained dog
detected traces of a corpse on Mrs McCann's clothing and on a Bible in the
apartment. Mrs McCann, a GP, has said she was present at six deaths before
her holiday.

3 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/portuguese-mediaclamour-for-conviction-13385008.html#ixzz29Z8S101s
The Diario de Noticia, a leading broadsheet, ran the front page headline "PJ wait
for final examinations to arrest Madeleine's parents". The newspaper alleged that
Kate McCann was repeatedly asked by police on Friday why there may have been
blood in her apartment. It claimed Mrs McCann, a GP, replied that it could have
come from a wound or a nosebleed. The police said they had reason to believe
the blood came from a corpse. Diario alleged that at this point Mrs McCann
declared: "That's impossible".
The newspaper said she then "got nervous", "gave way", and that the interrogator
"took advantage of this moment of weakness" and confronted her with news that
forensic scientists had found traces of blood in the back of their hire car with a 78.9
per cent match to Madeleine's. At this point, Diario reported, Mrs McCann "refused
to answer any more questions" and "broke down". The police allegedly took Mrs
McCann's refusal to answer any further questions as evidence in the case.
Diario also reported that "investigators admit the probability that Kate slapped
Maddie and she then hit her head. What surprises them is that the mother didn't
use her initiative to call 112 [the Portuguese emergency services number]".
Another newspaper, the Correro del Manho, alleged that Mrs McCann was shown
video footage of sniffer dogs scenting blood in the back of the McCanns' hire car.
The McCanns have denied such allegations and threatened to sue.

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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Guest on 10.07.13 11:25

PeterMac wrote:1 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/the-mccanns-unbelievabletruth-or-unimaginable-nightmare-13476726.html
The McCanns: Unbelievable truth or unimaginable nightmare?
Madeleine's parents have returned home to a storm of allegations, leaks and
accusations. Cole Moreton and Ian Herbert in Praia da Luz sift the evidence
Monday, 17 September 2007
What was in the hire car?
The silver Renault Scenic was examined by a sniffer dog trained to detect any
scent of a corpse, and police sources say they saw the dog "going crazy". Mrs
McCann has said that as a GP she was with corpses before the holiday, so
traces of them may still have been on her clothes. But the big breakthrough, the
media claimed, was Madeleine's hair and bodily fluids being found in the car

2 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/scapegoatsmccanns-reject-compelling-new-police-evidence-13385012.html
According to the McCann family, detectives asked why a British-trained dog
detected traces of a corpse on Mrs McCann's clothing and on a Bible in the
apartment. Mrs McCann, a GP, has said she was present at six deaths before
her holiday.

3 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/portuguese-mediaclamour-for-conviction-13385008.html#ixzz29Z8S101s
The Diario de Noticia, a leading broadsheet, ran the front page headline "PJ wait
for final examinations to arrest Madeleine's parents". The newspaper alleged that
Kate McCann was repeatedly asked by police on Friday why there may have been
blood in her apartment. It claimed Mrs McCann, a GP, replied that it could have
come from a wound or a nosebleed. The police said they had reason to believe
the blood came from a corpse. Diario alleged that at this point Mrs McCann
declared: "That's impossible".
The newspaper said she then "got nervous", "gave way", and that the interrogator
"took advantage of this moment of weakness" and confronted her with news that
forensic scientists had found traces of blood in the back of their hire car with a 78.9
per cent match to Madeleine's. At this point, Diario reported, Mrs McCann "refused
to answer any more questions" and "broke down". The police allegedly took Mrs
McCann's refusal to answer any further questions as evidence in the case.
Diario also reported that "investigators admit the probability that Kate slapped
Maddie and she then hit her head. What surprises them is that the mother didn't
use her initiative to call 112 [the Portuguese emergency services number]".
Another newspaper, the Correro del Manho, alleged that Mrs McCann was shown
video footage of sniffer dogs scenting blood in the back of the McCanns' hire car.
The McCanns have denied such allegations and threatened to sue.

Thanks for links PeterMack, I've not read those before they realy are eye openers. first time I've read about tracers of a corpse on the bible. I will read  through them again.
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Re: Alternative hypothesis (1).

Post by Woofer on 10.07.13 14:04

Journalists have jumped on what a relative (Kate`s Mother IIRC) said about cadaver scent on Kate`s clothes. I`m sure there is no record of Kate herself actually saying it.  I remember the relative saying it in an interview.

Besides, there is nothing suspicious about a GP visiting a few dead bodies in a week. Having worked for a funeral director, I can confirm that bodies that are to be cremated have to have 2 doctors` signatures confirming that the body is dead.  Sometimes one doctor would visit and do 2 or 3 at once, depending how many we had in the mortuary.  They may have gone on to do the same at other undertakers.  I must admit this was in a large town so doing 6 in one day is stretching it a bit even for a large town.  But in a small locality, highly unlikely, unless of course she was the only GP doing it and had to take in Leicester as well.
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