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Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

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Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by PeterMac on 25.06.13 15:16

The one "Devil's Advocate" debate which is urgently needed, is a full description of how any abduction might have been completed within the time allowed.
This is the one thing that has been missing right from the start, or more accurately from the next morning when it was shown that the shutters / windows / curtains / doors stories were just that.
No one, pro-TM, or pro-justice for MBM has managed to come up with a convincing scenario.  (Or for that matter any scenario !)
TM themselves painted themselves into a corner when they admitted in the blog that the shutter / windows etc was a "red herring", and CM said that they were convinced no one came in that way.
This is the problem that haunts everyone.  Grange included, I would bet.



The rules are very simple.
You are not allowed to contradict things which are in the statements- unless you can show that another statement contradicts it.

You are allowed to invent anything not covered in the statements - provided it is sensible, so you can have duplicate key, watching the family for a week, making notes, more than one person involved - anything along those lines.   But no aliens, or levitation !


Your scenario must cover
point of entry, point of exit, sedation, - or a convincing explanation of why TM are wrong on this point -  and must show the timings for each stage of the process - or give a convincing explanation of why TM are wrong on this point too.  You must also account for the lack of any forensic traces.


Your time starts NOW.

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by whmon on 25.06.13 15:22

Quote: The rules are very simple.
You are not allowed to contradict things which are in the statements- unless you can show that another statement contradicts it.
You are allowed to invent anything not covered in the statements - provided it is sensible, so you can have duplicate key, watching the family for a week, making notes, more than one person involved - anything along those lines.   But no aliens, or levitation !


Your scenario must cover
point of entry, point of exit, sedation, - or a convincing explanation of why TM are wrong on this point -  and must show the timings for each stage of the process - or give a convincing explanation of why TM are wrong on this point too.  You must also account for the lack of any forensic traces.


Your time starts NOW. Unquote


Shouldn't it also cover the cadaver scent?

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Cristobell on 25.06.13 16:08

I'm not attempting this, think it is impossible, lol, but just wanted to add, the McCanns said the shutters and window may have been a red herring, following their disastrous attempt to ban Goncalo's book in January 2010.  That particular trial was hugely damaging to their credibility and the 'red herring' update on their web seemed to be a desperate attempt at damage control.

We should also remember that initially they claimed the apartment was locked and they checked on the kids by going through the front door with a key.  When it was proved the window was not broken into, they changed their story and said the patio doors were left open. Due to the miniscule amount of time for the abduction to have taken place, Gerry then claimed the abductor may have been in the apartment when he did his check.

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by stillsloppingout on 25.06.13 16:09

In reply;   IMO .

 Firstly i feel the phrase Competition is inappropriate, a synopsis of events would be more tasteful .

Secondly , i used to purport theories and , attach credible information to the 3a's site until it became apparent that it was being used for the other side .  [ Eg i had it on good authority that some if not all of the tapas lot were swingers ]  whether that involved same sex relationships or underage sex i don't know .

But again my opinion ,[ and i had a friend over there who was working for a national at the time . ]

     MY THEORY IM MY OPINION 

    Is that Maddie died before the 3rd of may possibly a couple of days before , [ the 3rd is an unproved fact .] The group were involved in swinging and possibly a bit of drug taking as well ,  these / this drug [ possibly cocaine ] was used to sedate Maddie and the "comatose" twins, because of the administration of an illegal substance resulting in a death , they would have been screwed , so the abduction story was agreed between all of them . this  is the glue that binds ] .

I also feel that one or more of the group [ the males ], have been in a sexual relationship with a high powered politician  [ poss a Labour cabinet minister or of that ilk ] , whether this involves ,sex between  consenting adults or peadophillia i do not know, hence the unprecedented assistance .  

Murat , was either the dealer , or the person who arranged the swinging get togethers in the resort of PDL . PDL IS a swingers resort . hence Gerry denying he knew him . 

  So illegal activity , coupled with a previous illicit affair IMO is why they find themselves in this situation .
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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Guest on 25.06.13 16:48

Purée!

The ingredients for such a scenario, namely the [ever-changing and conflicting] statements of T9 are difficult to combine with a stranger abduction, as are the cadaver alerts in the apartment, on Kate’s clothes and on Cuddlecat.  For the benefit of having the slightest chance to give credibility to the abduction, I have to leave the alerts to the rented car out ;-)
• MO checks windows at 9:00pm – all’s quiet;
• GM goes check the apartment at 9:05pm, see the children fast asleep, spends a “proud father” moment and goes to the toilet [and didn’t flush so as to not wake the little ones?};
• As he exits the apartment via the patio stairs and the little gate, he sees JW walking by so he crosses the street to have a chat *);
• Straight behind him two strangers slip in through the gate [GM and JW intensely engaged in a discussion about tennis and childcare don’t notice].
• Meanwhile inside in the master bedroom the two get into a fight as to which child to abduct. One hits the other hard over the head. Too hard. Chips! He hides the body behind the sofa in the living.
• He then takes the sleeping Madeleine from her bed and carries her out onto the street via de front door, which was not double-locked and could be opened from inside, as he must have know by intuition
• He pushes his remaining luck by not having a car waiting for him outside in the car park and even though he can clearly hear GM and JW talk in the empty and thus quiet street, he turns right and crosses the road quasi in front of them.
• Again neither GM nor JW see him, but JT [whom they see neither] does. But she doesn’t think that there’s something wrong with a stranger carrying a child in Madeleine’s pyjamas and continues on het mission to go and check on her own daughter.
• Meanwhile the stranger abductor has hidden the sleeping Madeleine well enough to know that she will neither be found nor wake-up. He returns to the apartment to drag out his mate’s body just before MO enters to check on Madeleine. **))
• At 10:00pm KM enters the apartment and raises the alarm: “Stranger Abduction”!!!!
*) Forget that JW says that HE crossed the road, otherwise it doesn’t work
**) No idea what he did with the body, but he must have found a very good place for it ...

Do I get the prize?
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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by whmon on 25.06.13 16:58

Châtelaine wrote:Purée!

The ingredients for such a scenario, namely the [ever-changing and conflicting] statements of T9 are difficult to combine with a stranger abduction, as are the cadaver alerts in the apartment, on Kate’s clothes and on Cuddlecat.  For the benefit of having the slightest chance to give credibility to the abduction, I have to leave the alerts to the rented car out ;-)
• MO checks windows at 9:00pm – all’s quiet;
• GM goes check the apartment at 9:05pm, see the children fast asleep, spends a “proud father” moment and goes to the toilet [and didn’t flush so as to not wake the little ones?};
• As he exits the apartment via the patio stairs and the little gate, he sees JW walking by so he crosses the street to have a chat *);
• Straight behind him two strangers slip in through the gate [GM and JW intensely engaged in a discussion about tennis and childcare don’t notice].
• Meanwhile inside in the master bedroom the two get into a fight as to which child to abduct. One hits the other hard over the head. Too hard. Chips! He hides the body behind the sofa in the living.
• He then takes the sleeping Madeleine from her bed and carries her out onto the street via de front door, which was not double-locked and could be opened from inside, as he must have know by intuition
• He pushes his remaining luck by not having a car waiting for him outside in the car park and even though he can clearly hear GM and JW talk in the empty and thus quiet street, he turns right and crosses the road quasi in front of them.
• Again neither GM nor JW see him, but JT [whom they see neither] does. But she doesn’t think that there’s something wrong with a stranger carrying a child in Madeleine’s pyjamas and continues on het mission to go and check on her own daughter.
• Meanwhile the stranger abductor has hidden the sleeping Madeleine well enough to know that she will neither be found nor wake-up. He returns to the apartment to drag out his mate’s body just before MO enters to check on Madeleine. **))
• At 10:00pm KM enters the apartment and raises the alarm: “Stranger Abduction”!!!!
*) Forget that JW says that HE crossed the road, otherwise it doesn’t work
**) No idea what he did with the body, but he must have found a very good place for it ...

Do I get the prize?
You missed a bit out: One of the two strangers was extremely small, after being hit too hard over the head and hidden behind the sofa his pal then hides him in the wardrobe (he was small enough to be hidden in there) before returning to move the body.

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Guest on 25.06.13 17:06

A serious note on a jesting scenario correction: the cadaver alert in the master bedroom didn't necessarily come from within the wardrobe, but might have been an accumulation of "traveling" odour elsewhere in the room.
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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by whmon on 25.06.13 17:19

All joking aside - although it has been widely reported that no death occurred in 5A prior to the McCann's term of residence, could it be possible that an unrelated killing took place in the apartment before the Mccanns stayed there and that body was removed and hidden?

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by tigger on 25.06.13 17:45

@whmon wrote:All joking aside - although it has been widely reported that no death occurred in 5A prior to the McCann's term of residence, could it be possible that an unrelated killing took place in the apartment before the Mccanns stayed there and that body was removed and hidden?

- and pure coincidence that Kate's clothes and cuddlecat also had the cadaver odour on them, pure coincidence that the same odour was detected in the car.
you can't have it both ways. You can't decide to rule out the apartment but leave the car and the clothes and toy.

You could try to argue that the apartment could have been another body, another time.
You could argue the same for the Renault, even a second body another time.
You could even argue that Kate wore unseasonably thin clothing to go and check out six or so corpses some time before the holiday.
You could conclude the whole thing was just an amazing set of coincidences.

You'd be wrong.

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Guest on 25.06.13 17:46

@PeterMac wrote:No one, pro-TM, or pro-justice for MBM has managed to come up with a convincing scenario.  (Or for that matter any scenario !)


Maybe they are waiting for Kate's next book, provisionally titled "If I Did It". whistling
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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by bobbin on 25.06.13 17:59

@tigger wrote:
@whmon wrote:All joking aside - although it has been widely reported that no death occurred in 5A prior to the McCann's term of residence, could it be possible that an unrelated killing took place in the apartment before the Mccanns stayed there and that body was removed and hidden?

- and pure coincidence that Kate's clothes and cuddlecat also had the cadaver odour on them, pure coincidence that the same odour was detected in the car.
you can't have it both ways. You can't decide to rule out the apartment but leave the car and the clothes and toy.

You could try to argue that the apartment could have been another body, another time.
You could argue the same for the Renault, even a second body another time.
You could even argue that Kate wore unseasonably thin clothing to go and check out six or so corpses some time before the holiday.
You could conclude the whole thing was just an amazing set of coincidences.

You'd be wrong.
And in spite of all this 'Faulty Towers type' moving bodies from one place to another, the blood found in the same place as the cadavour dog signalled, was, in spite of being damaged by attempts at cleaning it with bleach? a very close match to Maddie's, such that the 15 out of 19 markers would be acceptable in a UK court of law?

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Guest on 25.06.13 18:09

@bobbin wrote: [...] the blood found in the same place as the cadavour dog signalled, was, in spite of being damaged by attempts at cleaning it with bleach? a very close match to Maddie's, such that the 15 out of 19 markers would be acceptable in a UK court of law?
***
The cesspit member[s] will be frothing at the mouth: "It is 15 out of 37, you SNERT!!!!" ...
laughat
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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by tigger on 25.06.13 18:15

@ PeterMac

I propose an extraordinarily lucky abductor - let's call him Lucky Jim.

Happens to speak Portuguese and English - overhears the staff of the Tapas Bar earlier in the week say something about the note in the staff book which reveals the children are alone.
For the next few days he checks out  which children go where, he is spotted several times, even when he disguised himself as a guitar player when the child he decided to target was given an ice cream.
Described by various guests as spotty, creepy and 'not very nice', with or without a chin, tallish or medium, foreign or gypsy, he still managed to melt away in a crowd of - a smallish number of British middle-class guests.

On the night of the 3rd he  got in via the patio door which he leaves open.  Right then he heard Gerry come in via the front door. He hid - being extremely thin - behind the door or the children's room. Puts a plaster over the mouth of the child, rolls her in a blanket.  Picked up the child, (legs are over his left arm now) and left via the window  by using the blanket as a 'bag' so as not to touch the window. - having noticed the father standing by the side entrance, completely involved in a conversation with another man. Patio door is out, so he climbs on the bed (not leaving a trace) ,opens the window  and shutters (conversation outside too absorbing)  lowers the child down and nips out of the front door picking up the child from the ground.   - he has to turn her round so the legs go over his right arm. (Or he just opens the window and the shutters as a 'red herring' - being of feeble mind and lacking in logic and carries the child out through the front door).
Then walks across the top of the road - hears some flip-flops coming towards him and walks with a purposeful step, his face turned away from the road.
According to unreliable sources the child was then delivered to the yacht 'Shearwater' and seen by at least one psychic as far away as Swansea.

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by suzyjohnson on 25.06.13 19:06

When GM went round to check the children at 9.05, he left the patio door open. The abductor followed him in.  After he checked in their room, GM went to the loo, during this time the abductor was able to go into the children's room. GM left 5A at 9.10 and was talking to JW outside. The abductor used gloves to open the shutter and window but then decided to go through the front door instead. By the time JT saw him at 9.15 the abductor had spent approx. 8 mins inside 5A. 

I always wondered if GM actually did leave that patio door open while he was inside 5A, and that when GM went to the loo, if MM tried to follow her father outside - because the door was open. Is is possible she could have heard voices from the Tapas bar? From there, she could have wandered the wrong way along the back alleyway looking for a way into the Tapas area. Eventually she would meet a main road where someone could have taken her from or she could've met with an accident.

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by PeterMac on 25.06.13 19:15

It's not easy, is it.

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by stumo on 25.06.13 19:19

@PeterMac wrote:
You are not allowed to contradict things which are in the statements- unless you can show that another statement contradicts it.

You are allowed to invent anything not covered in the statements - provided it is sensible, so you can have duplicate key, watching the family for a week, making notes, more than one person involved - anything along those lines.   But no aliens, or levitation !


i see time machines ARE allowed big grin
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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by PeterMac on 25.06.13 19:25

@Cristobell wrote:Due to the miniscule amount of time for the abduction to have taken place, Gerry then claimed the abductor may have been in the apartment when he did his check.
But under the rules you have to say where . . .

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Smokeandmirrors on 25.06.13 19:47

Peter, have tried ever so hard to come up with a credible scenario, but I'm afraid there simply isn't one that isn't reminiscent of a badly written farce, a bit like the official witness statements in fact.

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Guest on 25.06.13 20:10

Well, at least I tried very hard to explain the cadaver scent ...

big grin
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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Miraflores on 25.06.13 20:12

Um well, there is a discrepancy with Gerry's timeline and that of Jez Wilkins. Jez couldn't pin it down to 9:15 but put it up to half an hour before then. So.....Gerry goes to check on the children at 8:45, and comes out and sees Jez and stops for a chat. Abductor sees them engaged in coversation and nips in. He knows that Drs can be a bit free with the calpol when it comes to getting their children to sleep when they want an undisturbed night out.(Is this allowed, or is this deviating from the instructions?). He doesn't want to hang around too long, because he doesn't know when the next check is, but he reasons it won't be for half an hour. He leaves with M. At 9:15 Jane Tanner wanders by - it's dark but she sees someone crossing the street somewhere away, carrying something. It might have been the abductor but it could have been anyone carrying anything. She doesn't really know what it is, but surprisingly her memory improves as time goes on*........... And erm, that's it.

* Sometimes I think this can happen - that you see something, it doesn't fully register and then something triggers a flashback which recalls the memory and puts it into context.
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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Miraflores on 25.06.13 20:13

Châtelaine wrote:Well, at least I tried very hard to explain the cadaver scent ...

big grin
Now the abductor having put M somewhere, nips back with a dead pig, which will serve to produce the cadaver scent and throw everyone off the trail.
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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Guest on 25.06.13 20:14

Well done to everyone who has attempted to create a believable scenario. Whenever I try, I get the Benny Hill theme tune going through my head because of all the supposed running about here, there and everywhere.

Maybe instead I can suggest prizes for the best version.

1) A week in PDL - all expenses paid except for evening childcare.

2) Kate's book and sick bucket.

3) A weekend at Rothley Towers.
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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Guest on 25.06.13 20:18

1) I don't have children
2) I already have the book and used my own bucket
3) Maman and I have been voting folding money to have a good talk with them at my kitchen table. But, of course, same would do in Rothley too.

So, I wouldn't mind finishing 3rd [just this time].
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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by tigger on 25.06.13 20:22

@Miraflores wrote:
Châtelaine wrote:Well, at least I tried very hard to explain the cadaver scent ...

big grin
Now the abductor having put M somewhere, nips back with a dead pig, which will serve to produce the cadaver scent and throw everyone off the trail.

At last! Why didn't we think of that before?  But wait, the dogs would know! It's easier - the abductor works part-time in a mortuary!

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Re: Can you come up with a credible scenario ? Competition opens today.

Post by Guest on 25.06.13 20:24

@tigger wrote:
@Miraflores wrote:
Châtelaine wrote:Well, at least I tried very hard to explain the cadaver scent ...

big grin
Now the abductor having put M somewhere, nips back with a dead pig, which will serve to produce the cadaver scent and throw everyone off the trail.

At last! Why didn't we think of that before?  But wait, the dogs would know! It's easier - the abductor works part-time in a mortuary!
***
And has attended to six corpses the week before the abduction. Yeah.
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