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MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by monkey mind on 20.07.12 22:20

@One wrote:[
You're right, Monkey Mind, it would have been a different case entirely. But I've been thinking lately about Kate's disclosure moment. I can't find a statement from outside the group for anyone who witnessed it. So if it did happen it was for Diane's benefit. But it meant they had enough time to get things together before people began to arrive. And it would have been the perfect time to tinker with the shutters under the guise of checking to see what went wrong. But instead they did other things like media and the sticker book. To me if it was pre planned they wouldn't have overlooked the detail or needed to rip the sticker book.
I am picturing a hypothetical situation with myself at the centre. In the scenario we are considering here there was no time to put right that which went wrong. Since the spanner was thrown in the works the perfect time did not exist. There would have been a small window of opportunity to salvage the scene, for the windows to be seen to be forced but in our hypothetical situation the only person that could have been assigned to set matters right would have been MO, and for whatever reason, he clearly did not do it, and if I were in his shoes, nor would I. But the plan was set in motion and had to continue, in my mind, there would still be time to finesse the matter but once the alarm was raised that all went up in smoke despite my anticipated delay in calling the police. People arrived on scene too quicly and who knows when the police would arrive, called by someone else. In a word, mayhem beyond anticipation. All that is left is to stick to the original plan and set the abduction wheels in motion come what may. Had it not been for the spanner it would have been oh so rosy.
This is just my hypothetical situation you understand and in order to get the story that deviated from the script clear in my own mind I should set it down on paper. Any old bit of paper will do. Perhaps two bits of paper, That first one doesn’t read right.
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by monkey mind on 20.07.12 22:34

@tuom wrote:[I know that this 15 mins in the creche will probably drive me nuts, but, I think there is something to it , as I said before something caused this action.

Now looking back on all the holidays we hae been on there has always been a meltdown with some one of the kids and I have seen other families with children of the ages of the MC have meltdowns. In the statements the daily routine never changed except for the one day they spent "family time" at the beach and even that seems to have been a dismal failure. Now just imagine that MMC was just tired and did ot want to be in the creche and had a tantrum which resulted in the nanny contacting the parents and she was taken out , well there is nothing wrong with that ! like all in this case the silence about this action speaks volumes , I may repost this in "questions I would like to ask TMC" thread. Rolling Eyes
Tuom, all that could have happened certainly, but it's not just the fifteen minutes is it? As I posted earlier on this thread, the records show that the O'Brien child was signed in at 4.30 pm that day, a most odd time, and she wasn't booked out either. Strangest of all, whoever signed her in in the mornign and afternoon doesn't seem to have been the same person despite trying to do the same person's signature, and whoever that was couldn't remember what apartment they were living in. There appears to be a lot going on that afternoon, indeed, the 30th appears to have been a most unusual day for a number of reasons.
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by Nina on 20.07.12 23:30

@monkey mind wrote:
@tigger wrote:
@monkey mind wrote:
@One wrote:I think if there was a substitute it'd almost have to point to something that was pre planned and with others before the holiday. I feel if this was the case the abduction scene would have been more credible.
If indeed there was no abduction then perhaps, as I have suggested previously, the abduction scenario was intended to appear far more credible than it ultimately did. Even the best laid plans are subject to elements beyond one's control. Personally speaking, if I knew in advance that I was going to tell the world that the shutters to my apartment had been forced, then I should factor into my plan that they should be seen to be forced, to not do so would be the grossest act of stupidity/. The fact that they were not I suggest was not due to bumbling stupidity rather an unforeseen spanner in the works, and that spanner may well have been the unwitting Jeremy Wilkins.

How much more convincing to this day would the abduction appear if the shutters had been seen to be forced. There would be no need for any of this leaving the apartment unlocked and front and back door going in one and out the other seeming nonsense.

Could JW have occasioned a last minute change because he would be a truly independent witness and therefore add to the credibility of the story. Gerry rushed outside immediately after the alarm was raised and tried to raise the shutters. I think there is a witness DW?
According to the bewk they could be raised from outside, but the PJ found them stuck a few inches above the sill?
Perhaps that was one of the many factors that made it a 'disaster'.
So the last minute improvisation proved to be a fatal flaw?
In this hypothetical situation, if I had planned it, the shutters would have been seen to be forced for sure leaving the police and anyone else in no doubt of a break in.And to leave nothing to chance, that particular touch would have had to have been added before the alarm were raised. Ideally I suppose around about the time G returned to the appt in the vague region of 9.15pm. But alas the spanner in the works was pushing his child around the streets in his buggy. He wouldn't add credibility to our hypothetical situation rather he would positively feck it up. From then on it would be a salvage operation for an unstoppable train of events was set in motion and that train was moving so very quickly. All that remained was a hope of salvation, but in my dream situation, a window never arose to salve that ation.

Good evening monkey mind. It would have been impossible though to have forced the shutters. They can only be raised from the inside with the strap which would have shown just that as the mechanism would have been turned and locked. From the outside the shutters couldn't have been forced up and stay up as the mechanism wouldn't have been turned and been locked. They would just crash down. So if the shutters had been raised when the police arrived they would have known that they were raised from inside the bedroom.

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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by Ollie on 20.07.12 23:43

@Nina wrote:
@monkey mind wrote:
@tigger wrote:
@monkey mind wrote:
@One wrote:I think if there was a substitute it'd almost have to point to something that was pre planned and with others before the holiday. I feel if this was the case the abduction scene would have been more credible.
If indeed there was no abduction then perhaps, as I have suggested previously, the abduction scenario was intended to appear far more credible than it ultimately did. Even the best laid plans are subject to elements beyond one's control. Personally speaking, if I knew in advance that I was going to tell the world that the shutters to my apartment had been forced, then I should factor into my plan that they should be seen to be forced, to not do so would be the grossest act of stupidity/. The fact that they were not I suggest was not due to bumbling stupidity rather an unforeseen spanner in the works, and that spanner may well have been the unwitting Jeremy Wilkins.

How much more convincing to this day would the abduction appear if the shutters had been seen to be forced. There would be no need for any of this leaving the apartment unlocked and front and back door going in one and out the other seeming nonsense.

Could JW have occasioned a last minute change because he would be a truly independent witness and therefore add to the credibility of the story. Gerry rushed outside immediately after the alarm was raised and tried to raise the shutters. I think there is a witness DW?
According to the bewk they could be raised from outside, but the PJ found them stuck a few inches above the sill?
Perhaps that was one of the many factors that made it a 'disaster'.
So the last minute improvisation proved to be a fatal flaw?
In this hypothetical situation, if I had planned it, the shutters would have been seen to be forced for sure leaving the police and anyone else in no doubt of a break in.And to leave nothing to chance, that particular touch would have had to have been added before the alarm were raised. Ideally I suppose around about the time G returned to the appt in the vague region of 9.15pm. But alas the spanner in the works was pushing his child around the streets in his buggy. He wouldn't add credibility to our hypothetical situation rather he would positively feck it up. From then on it would be a salvage operation for an unstoppable train of events was set in motion and that train was moving so very quickly. All that remained was a hope of salvation, but in my dream situation, a window never arose to salve that ation.

Good evening monkey mind. It would have been impossible though to have forced the shutters. They can only be raised from the inside with the strap which would have shown just that as the mechanism would have been turned and locked. From the outside the shutters couldn't have been forced up and stay up as the mechanism wouldn't have been turned and been locked. They would just crash down. So if the shutters had been raised when the police arrived they would have known that they were raised from inside the bedroom.

I am with monkey mind on this, I posted on another thread a while ago that imo things were supposed to of been set up but was disturbed so couldn't carry it through. Perhaps someone was under the impression that it would be easy to raise the shutters from the outside, never having done it before.

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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by monkey mind on 20.07.12 23:52

@Nina wrote:[Good evening monkey mind. It would have been impossible though to have forced the shutters. They can only be raised from the inside with the strap which would have shown just that as the mechanism would have been turned and locked. From the outside the shutters couldn't have been forced up and stay up as the mechanism wouldn't have been turned and been locked. They would just crash down. So if the shutters had been raised when the police arrived they would have known that they were raised from inside the bedroom.

And a very good evening to you Nina!
You yourself know they couldn't be forced from the outside because you have shutters just like those, but would it be apparent to someone not familiar with them? This in itself could explain why the shutters weren't actually forced, quite simply it wasn't possible. In my hypothetical situation, I would tend to vere away from this as an explanation though, for the simple reason that it would be a crucial aspect and even if I discovered at the last minute they couldn't be forced I should at least, thinking on my feet, endeavour to leave evidence that someone had tried, but there was no such evidence.
Asa point of interest wasn't Kate in one of the documentaries describing the window being open and wind blowing the curtains in? If a person did indeed know it was impossible to force those windows from the outside them it is difficult to imagine them saying such a thing.....
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by monkey mind on 21.07.12 0:00

@Ollie wrote:[I posted on another thread a while ago that imo things were supposed to of been set up but was disturbed so couldn't carry it through. Perhaps someone was under the impression that it would be easy to raise the shutters from the outside, never having done it before.
Ollie, agreed. Apologies, I missed this when sending my last post.
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by tuom on 21.07.12 0:01

@monkey mind wrote:
@tuom wrote:[I know that this 15 mins in the creche will probably drive me nuts, but, I think there is something to it , as I said before something caused this action.

Now looking back on all the holidays we hae been on there has always been a meltdown with some one of the kids and I have seen other families with children of the ages of the MC have meltdowns. In the statements the daily routine never changed except for the one day they spent "family time" at the beach and even that seems to have been a dismal failure. Now just imagine that MMC was just tired and did ot want to be in the creche and had a tantrum which resulted in the nanny contacting the parents and she was taken out , well there is nothing wrong with that ! like all in this case the silence about this action speaks volumes , I may repost this in "questions I would like to ask TMC" thread. Rolling Eyes
Tuom, all that could have happened certainly, but it's not just the fifteen minutes is it? As I posted earlier on this thread, the records show that the O'Brien child was signed in at 4.30 pm that day, a most odd time, and she wasn't booked out either. Strangest of all, whoever signed her in in the mornign and afternoon doesn't seem to have been the same person despite trying to do the same person's signature, and whoever that was couldn't remember what apartment they were living in. There appears to be a lot going on that afternoon, indeed, the 30th appears to have been a most unusual day for a number of reasons.



Thank you for that MM , I must go back and look at the creche records again , I have studied them , but not well enough , I know there is something there and it is just not sticking out to me at the moment but bear with me , I will be back , I enjoy your posts
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by tigger on 21.07.12 6:35

@monkey mind wrote:
@One wrote:[
You're right, Monkey Mind, it would have been a different case entirely. But I've been thinking lately about Kate's disclosure moment. I can't find a statement from outside the group for anyone who witnessed it. So if it did happen it was for Diane's benefit. But it meant they had enough time to get things together before people began to arrive. And it would have been the perfect time to tinker with the shutters under the guise of checking to see what went wrong. But instead they did other things like media and the sticker book. To me if it was pre planned they wouldn't have overlooked the detail or needed to rip the sticker book.
I am picturing a hypothetical situation with myself at the centre. In the scenario we are considering here there was no time to put right that which went wrong. Since the spanner was thrown in the works the perfect time did not exist. There would have been a small window of opportunity to salvage the scene, for the windows to be seen to be forced but in our hypothetical situation the only person that could have been assigned to set matters right would have been MO, and for whatever reason, he clearly did not do it, and if I were in his shoes, nor would I. But the plan was set in motion and had to continue, in my mind, there would still be time to finesse the matter but once the alarm was raised that all went up in smoke despite my anticipated delay in calling the police. People arrived on scene too quicly and who knows when the police would arrive, called by someone else. In a word, mayhem beyond anticipation. All that is left is to stick to the original plan and set the abduction wheels in motion come what may. Had it not been for the spanner it would have been oh so rosy.
This is just my hypothetical situation you understand and in order to get the story that deviated from the script clear in my own mind I should set it down on paper. Any old bit of paper will do. Perhaps two bits of paper, That first one doesn’t read right.

I'm 100% with you there. Besides, the psychology of the individual is of great importance here. There's no point in expecting actions which an intelligent person should have executed with some finesse.
Gerry may have been delighted with the arrival of JW and may have seen it as a bonus to have an independent witness who could place him at the scene at the same time as the abductor was seen by JT. Clever you see.
Therefore the time of the meeting was set by Gerry at around 9.15 although JW never gave this time. It was probably some 15 to 20 minutes earlier.
Perhaps it was always the plan to open the shutters just after the alarm was raised. They make an awful lot of noise and they would probably have seen that Mrs. Fenn was in that night. So it would be safer in fact to mess around with the shutters after the alarm was raised, just trying out if they could be raised from outside.
Now we've seen - thanks to Pat Brown - that they can be raised by a strong man all the way but will not stay up.
I find it significant that Gerry according to Kate went out and tried the shutters - he may have tried to get them to jam halfway up, but they got stuck after a few inches.
Don't we all know people like that? They'll know just how to do something and you end up with a leaking tap, a broken pipe or some such disaster.
All the same they went with the script and one explanation for the 'jemmied' and the door hanging open may well be because either they stuck to the script or the family already had the script.

This would also explain why they eventually and I believe at present are back with the shutters, they could be opened from outside and mentioning that they won't stay up is not necessary. In another discussion one apologist suggested that the intruder had brought a piece of wood with him to prop it up, but by then the patio doors were already open.
For this plot to work we are in need of two somewhat more intelligent participants, that includes the putative abductor. Salv --ation?

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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by One on 21.07.12 7:23

@tigger wrote:
@monkey mind wrote:
@One wrote:[
You're right, Monkey Mind, it would have been a different case entirely. But I've been thinking lately about Kate's disclosure moment. I can't find a statement from outside the group for anyone who witnessed it. So if it did happen it was for Diane's benefit. But it meant they had enough time to get things together before people began to arrive. And it would have been the perfect time to tinker with the shutters under the guise of checking to see what went wrong. But instead they did other things like media and the sticker book. To me if it was pre planned they wouldn't have overlooked the detail or needed to rip the sticker book.
I am picturing a hypothetical situation with myself at the centre. In the scenario we are considering here there was no time to put right that which went wrong. Since the spanner was thrown in the works the perfect time did not exist. There would have been a small window of opportunity to salvage the scene, for the windows to be seen to be forced but in our hypothetical situation the only person that could have been assigned to set matters right would have been MO, and for whatever reason, he clearly did not do it, and if I were in his shoes, nor would I. But the plan was set in motion and had to continue, in my mind, there would still be time to finesse the matter but once the alarm was raised that all went up in smoke despite my anticipated delay in calling the police. People arrived on scene too quicly and who knows when the police would arrive, called by someone else. In a word, mayhem beyond anticipation. All that is left is to stick to the original plan and set the abduction wheels in motion come what may. Had it not been for the spanner it would have been oh so rosy.
This is just my hypothetical situation you understand and in order to get the story that deviated from the script clear in my own mind I should set it down on paper. Any old bit of paper will do. Perhaps two bits of paper, That first one doesn’t read right.

I'm 100% with you there. Besides, the psychology of the individual is of great importance here. There's no point in expecting actions which an intelligent person should have executed with some finesse.
Gerry may have been delighted with the arrival of JW and may have seen it as a bonus to have an independent witness who could place him at the scene at the same time as the abductor was seen by JT. Clever you see.
Therefore the time of the meeting was set by Gerry at around 9.15 although JW never gave this time. It was probably some 15 to 20 minutes earlier.
Perhaps it was always the plan to open the shutters just after the alarm was raised. They make an awful lot of noise and they would probably have seen that Mrs. Fenn was in that night. So it would be safer in fact to mess around with the shutters after the alarm was raised, just trying out if they could be raised from outside.
Now we've seen - thanks to Pat Brown - that they can be raised by a strong man all the way but will not stay up.
I find it significant that Gerry according to Kate went out and tried the shutters - he may have tried to get them to jam halfway up, but they got stuck after a few inches.
Don't we all know people like that? They'll know just how to do something and you end up with a leaking tap, a broken pipe or some such disaster.
All the same they went with the script and one explanation for the 'jemmied' and the door hanging open may well be because either they stuck to the script or the family already had the script.

This would also explain why they eventually and I believe at present are back with the shutters, they could be opened from outside and mentioning that they won't stay up is not necessary. In another discussion one apologist suggested that the intruder had brought a piece of wood with him to prop it up, but by then the patio doors were already open.
For this plot to work we are in need of two somewhat more intelligent participants, that includes the putative abductor. Salv --ation?

Firstly, Tuom, I apologise for disturbing your train of thought here. It wasn't my intention.

And Tigger and Monkey Mind, the shutters seem to be a problem for me and thanks for your thoughts. I agree it's fine and well to expect certain behaviour but we don't know the facts about the situation that night.
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by tigger on 21.07.12 7:56

I forgot to add that change of plan would also explain the hastily reconstructed timelines. The trip down to PdL with a live child seems to have been delayed, therefore there was no close link between eggman and the Smiths. Now there is a recent topic on the earliest witness statements which all point to an earlier alarm.
If (these are all big ifs) there was a problem finding the girl who had to be carried through PdL and the activity before 10.00 p.m. was to find her it would possibly explain the double alarm. By the time she is avaible it is past 9.45 - they are seen by the Smiths around 9.55. Alarm at 10.00. Gerry has the alibi of the Tapas that he was at the table, so no alibi imo.


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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by Nina on 21.07.12 8:40

@monkey mind wrote:
@Nina wrote:[Good evening monkey mind. It would have been impossible though to have forced the shutters. They can only be raised from the inside with the strap which would have shown just that as the mechanism would have been turned and locked. From the outside the shutters couldn't have been forced up and stay up as the mechanism wouldn't have been turned and been locked. They would just crash down. So if the shutters had been raised when the police arrived they would have known that they were raised from inside the bedroom.

And a very good evening to you Nina!
You yourself know they couldn't be forced from the outside because you have shutters just like those, but would it be apparent to someone not familiar with them? This in itself could explain why the shutters weren't actually forced, quite simply it wasn't possible. In my hypothetical situation, I would tend to vere away from this as an explanation though, for the simple reason that it would be a crucial aspect and even if I discovered at the last minute they couldn't be forced I should at least, thinking on my feet, endeavour to leave evidence that someone had tried, but there was no such evidence.
Asa point of interest wasn't Kate in one of the documentaries describing the window being open and wind blowing the curtains in? If a person did indeed know it was impossible to force those windows from the outside them it is difficult to imagine them saying such a thing.....
Good morning monkeymind. Yes I have shutters like those so know that their suggestion of the shutters being forced and Kate saying the window was open and the curtains blowing in the wind are a lie, a huge lie. They must have thought that it was possible to raise the shutters because I cannot imagine them making such an obvious mistake in the first words that left their mouths to family and the world.
And it was the shutter issue and their lies that changed me from supporter to where I am today.

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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by tigger on 21.07.12 8:46

We've gone off topic a long time ago, but forgive me all the same - it follows from my previous post:


Original plan:

Obvious and frequent checks by members of group all evening.
Gerry checks at 9.05 - will pick up live child to be seen in PdL . He is wearing beige trousers with buttons and a dark (possibly fleece as it was cold) top.
JT will report seeing a man walking away with what could be a child around 9.15.
The two abductor sightings will be connected, one by a friend, one by a total stranger.

The timeline is clear right up to around 9.30 when perhaps Kate is due to check and discover child missing.
Gerry will then move the shutters to an open position as it is too risky to do this earlier because of the noise and possibly Mrs. Fenn.

So far the story is simple, we have two sightings, proof of checking and alibis for being elsewhere when the abductor is seen.
We have shutters which can be lifted from outside and this proves abduction. Plus the props of cuddlecat and the non existent ledge (this ledge I believe is present in another apartment and has led me to believe that the story, the jemmied shutters and the wide open front door, the ledge and cuddlecat were already in possession of the people who were in charge of informing the media. Philomena in particular has come out with perfect Gerry quotes which imo may have been sent by post or email - but it’s a minor point).

So there’s no need for a timeline to be written down at this stage, but start improvising and you’re in deep trouble.

At about 8.55 -9.00 Gerry meets JW who literally blocks his way. We can forget JT, who can’t have been there, but her sighting stands of course. This part isn’t changed.
JW will have to be persuaded that the time was 9.15, same as the sighting.

So a last minute factoring in of JW - a second independent witness - may have seemed a godsend.
However - for some reason the child which is to be carried through PdL isn’t immediately available (this may be the reason for the early alarms for which there are witness statements). JT was also spotted standing outside around this time I believe.

Gerry may have had to go back inside to change into the beige trousers - the ‘uniform’ described by JT and the Smiths. Then find the girl and go for his walk which cannot have started much before 9.40. He is aghast to be surrounded by 9 Irish people at 9.55 who take the trouble to talk to him, instead of the far more likely one or two tourists coming out of one of the many bars in that area.

He delivers the child back and changes into jeans I believe (the beige trousers are thrown on the bed as seen in the first photographs).
Meanwhile Kate raised the alarm and Gerry tries and fails to open the shutters. Clearly too early to call the police, the T7 are milling around doing little in the way of searching.
Because now we have a gap of one hour during which some checking should have been done. MO is used to fill this gap and his testimony points clearly to a fabricated story. He pretty well got everything wrong and probably had never been in 5a.

So now there is a need to get things down on paper. Twice.
Fairly soon afterwards DP had an improved timeline typed out on A4 sheets and each member of the group was given a copy. They were surprised when the PJ refused to let them take it to their interviews.
This alone shows a mixture of arrogance and naivity which is hard to understand - but in The Cracked Mirror (McCannfiles.com) the ‘institutionalisation’ of the NHS environment explains this very well imo.

So what had gone wrong by the time Gerry phoned (his mother in law before his own family and before that, his best contact in government).

The original time line was thrown out by half an hour.
The walk into PdL was delayed and didn’t match with the 9.15 eggman.
He’d been seen by a wide awake and observant family.
The shutters got stuck and wouldn’t lift.
They’d been heard calling for Madeleine or Madelene too early.
The possible masonic kneeling and ‘roaring like a bull’ (I’m convinced it’s some weird cry of help for other masons) wasn’t understood by the GNR.
There had to be another mode of entry - so the police was told the key to the front door was gone.(I’ve forgotten this bit - I know they said it might have been stolen and copied but Amaral saw it lying on the kitchen table - anyway there’s something crucial about the key).
The police didn’t immediately believe the abduction and were looking for a child that had wandered off.
The beige trousers were still on the bed when the police took the photographs (They’re gone in the ones a few hours later).

I think pretty well all of the above had already happened by the time Gerry told his relatives ‘It’s a disaster, it’s a disaster!’

disaster [dɪˈzɑːstə]
n
1. an occurrence that causes great distress or destruction
2. a thing, project, etc., that fails or has been ruined



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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by monkey mind on 21.07.12 14:46

@tigger wrote:[I'm 100% with you there. Besides, the psychology of the individual is of great importance here. There's no point in expecting actions which an intelligent person should have executed with some finesse. Gerry may have been delighted with the arrival of JW and may have seen it as a bonus to have an independent witness who could place him at the scene at the same time as the abductor was seen by JT. Clever you see.
Yes, quite plausible. Sorry, I misunderstood you the firsttime round Tigger.
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by monkey mind on 21.07.12 15:05

@Nina wrote:onkeymind. Yes I have shutters like those so know that their suggestion of the shutters being forced and Kate saying the window was open and the curtains blowing in the wind are a lie, a huge lie. They must have thought that it was possible to raise the shutters because I cannot imagine them making such an obvious mistake in the first words that left their mouths to family and the world.
[color=darkred]And it was the shutter issue and their lies that changed me from supporter to where I am today
.

Good Afternoon Nina. Your above statement kind of proves the point I am trying to make here. People say that if it was planned there wouldn't have been such a messed up abduction account. The point is that it wasn't intended to appear that way imho. Unpredictable circumstances were the cause. If you are going to tell the world the shutters were forced only an incompetent fool would do so without making sure there was evidence to indicate they had been. But in this case it appears to me that after the plan was upset it was quite conceivable they were unable to find opportunity / or justsimply unable to force the shutters despite trying to retrieve the situation and during the chaos it wasn't possible to change the story. It was imperative to get the *abduction * out there, and that simply couldn't be changed. In order to make it all seem more plausible after the spanner, a couple of attempts at a new sequence of events/movements were hastily drawn up in the timeline so that it could be referred to later. Trouble is only the second one was supposed to be seen by the police not as it turned out, both.

So if there hadn't been a hitch, a spanner, then the windows would have been seen to be forced , the PJ would have taken this proposal more seriously and many, many more people as you indicate above, would have been convinced of the abduction. It could well have simply been thwarted by bad luck, wrong person in the wrong place at the wrong time.
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by monkey mind on 21.07.12 15:17

@tigger wrote:We've gone off topic a long time ago, but forgive me all the same - it follows from my previous post:


Original plan:

Obvious and frequent checks by members of group all evening.
Gerry checks at 9.05 - will pick up live child to be seen in PdL . He is wearing beige trousers with buttons and a dark (possibly fleece as it was cold) top.
JT will report seeing a man walking away with what could be a child around 9.15.
The two abductor sightings will be connected, one by a friend, one by a total stranger.

The timeline is clear right up to around 9.30 when perhaps Kate is due to check and discover child missing.
Gerry will then move the shutters to an open position as it is too risky to do this earlier because of the noise and possibly Mrs. Fenn.

So far the story is simple, we have two sightings, proof of checking and alibis for being elsewhere when the abductor is seen.
We have shutters which can be lifted from outside and this proves abduction. Plus the props of cuddlecat and the non existent ledge (this ledge I believe is present in another apartment and has led me to believe that the story, the jemmied shutters and the wide open front door, the ledge and cuddlecat were already in possession of the people who were in charge of informing the media. Philomena in particular has come out with perfect Gerry quotes which imo may have been sent by post or email - but it’s a minor point).

So there’s no need for a timeline to be written down at this stage, but start improvising and you’re in deep trouble.

At about 8.55 -9.00 Gerry meets JW who literally blocks his way. We can forget JT, who can’t have been there, but her sighting stands of course. This part isn’t changed.
JW will have to be persuaded that the time was 9.15, same as the sighting.

So a last minute factoring in of JW - a second independent witness - may have seemed a godsend.
However - for some reason the child which is to be carried through PdL isn’t immediately available (this may be the reason for the early alarms for which there are witness statements). JT was also spotted standing outside around this time I believe.

Gerry may have had to go back inside to change into the beige trousers - the ‘uniform’ described by JT and the Smiths. Then find the girl and go for his walk which cannot have started much before 9.40. He is aghast to be surrounded by 9 Irish people at 9.55 who take the trouble to talk to him, instead of the far more likely one or two tourists coming out of one of the many bars in that area.

He delivers the child back and changes into jeans I believe (the beige trousers are thrown on the bed as seen in the first photographs).
Meanwhile Kate raised the alarm and Gerry tries and fails to open the shutters. Clearly too early to call the police, the T7 are milling around doing little in the way of searching.
Because now we have a gap of one hour during which some checking should have been done. MO is used to fill this gap and his testimony points clearly to a fabricated story. He pretty well got everything wrong and probably had never been in 5a.

So now there is a need to get things down on paper. Twice.
Fairly soon afterwards DP had an improved timeline typed out on A4 sheets and each member of the group was given a copy. They were surprised when the PJ refused to let them take it to their interviews.
This alone shows a mixture of arrogance and naivity which is hard to understand - but in The Cracked Mirror (McCannfiles.com) the ‘institutionalisation’ of the NHS environment explains this very well imo.

So what had gone wrong by the time Gerry phoned (his mother in law before his own family and before that, his best contact in government).

The original time line was thrown out by half an hour.
The walk into PdL was delayed and didn’t match with the 9.15 eggman.
He’d been seen by a wide awake and observant family.
The shutters got stuck and wouldn’t lift.
They’d been heard calling for Madeleine or Madelene too early.
The possible masonic kneeling and ‘roaring like a bull’ (I’m convinced it’s some weird cry of help for other masons) wasn’t understood by the GNR.
There had to be another mode of entry - so the police was told the key to the front door was gone.(I’ve forgotten this bit - I know they said it might have been stolen and copied but Amaral saw it lying on the kitchen table - anyway there’s something crucial about the key).
The police didn’t immediately believe the abduction and were looking for a child that had wandered off.
The beige trousers were still on the bed when the police took the photographs (They’re gone in the ones a few hours later).

I think pretty well all of the above had already happened by the time Gerry told his relatives ‘It’s a disaster, it’s a disaster!’

disaster [dɪˈzɑːstə]
n
1. an occurrence that causes great distress or destruction
2. a thing, project, etc., that fails or has been ruined


Tigger, again that is all very plausible but it relies on the Smith sighting being Gerry and I'm not entirely convinced it is. If it was then your account is definitely most plausible. But if it wasn't then we have to account for G and MOs visits to 5A and in my opinion putting the final touches to the shutters accounts for this. It may well have been intended that jT would not only see the abductor but also hear the shutters being forced as she sauntered up the road before raising the alarm, but as she sauntered she heard nothing and more to the point saw G chatting with some guy in the street so she held back, hence why JW never saw her. As this part of the plan was thwarted MO returns to try to finish the scene but for some reason bottles out, I'm sure I would too.

That's a very good spot on the beige pants by the way...

I feel sure one of these two scenarios is very close to the truth.....
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by Nina on 21.07.12 15:31

@monkey mind wrote:
@Nina wrote:[color=darkred]onkeymind. Yes I have shutters like those so know that their suggestion of the shutters being forced and Kate saying the window was open and the curtains blowing in the wind are a lie, a huge lie. They must have thought that it was possible to raise the shutters because I cannot imagine them making such an obvious mistake in the first words that left their mouths to family and the world.
And it was the shutter issue and their lies that changed me from supporter to where I am today.

Good Afternoon Nina. Your above statement kind of proves the point I am trying to make here. People say that if it was planned there wouldn't have been such a messed up abduction account. The point is that it wasn't intended to appear that way imho. Unpredictable circumstances were the cause. If you are going to tell the world the shutters were forced only an incompetent fool would do so without making sure there was evidence to indicate they had been. But in this case it appears to me that after the plan was upset it was quite conceivable they were unable to find opportunity / or justsimply unable to force the shutters despite trying to retrieve the situation and during the chaos it wasn't possible to change the story. It was imperative to get the *abduction * out there, and that simply couldn't be changed. In order to make it all seem more plausible after the spanner, a couple of attempts at a new sequence of events/movements were hastily drawn up in the timeline so that it could be referred to later. Trouble is only the second one was supposed to be seen by the police not as it turned out, both.

So if there hadn't been a hitch, a spanner, then the windows would have been seen to be forced , the PJ would have taken this proposal more seriously and many, many more people as you indicate above, would have been convinced of the abduction. It could well have simply been thwarted by bad luck, wrong person in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Hi there monkey mind. The telephone calls to the extended family were within minutes of the alarm being raised and what was told was abduction and a window and shutters being involved and that was the breaking news on the morning of the 4th may 2007.
Re pre planning. Often assumptions are made and I was once told never assume it makes an ass of u and me winkwink So it could have been preplanned with the assumption that the shutters could be forced open from the outside and stay up. But they won't. It is interesting that on the hand written timescales that the shutters are mentioned. Now why mention them? You just might as well mention baby gate closed/open or kitchen light left on or off but it wasn't, but the shutters were because imo they were an integral part of the story and so had to be included.
Yes as you say to make it more convincing then they should have forced the shutters up but that would have required time, effort and something to prop them up.
I honestly think they assumed that the shutters could be forced open from the outside and stay up.

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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by Nina on 21.07.12 15:38

soz offtopic I shall stfu

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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by Guest on 21.07.12 15:45

@Nina wrote:
@monkey mind wrote:
@Nina wrote:[color=darkred]onkeymind. Yes I have shutters like those so know that their suggestion of the shutters being forced and Kate saying the window was open and the curtains blowing in the wind are a lie, a huge lie. They must have thought that it was possible to raise the shutters because I cannot imagine them making such an obvious mistake in the first words that left their mouths to family and the world.
And it was the shutter issue and their lies that changed me from supporter to where I am today.

Good Afternoon Nina. Your above statement kind of proves the point I am trying to make here. People say that if it was planned there wouldn't have been such a messed up abduction account. The point is that it wasn't intended to appear that way imho. Unpredictable circumstances were the cause. If you are going to tell the world the shutters were forced only an incompetent fool would do so without making sure there was evidence to indicate they had been. But in this case it appears to me that after the plan was upset it was quite conceivable they were unable to find opportunity / or justsimply unable to force the shutters despite trying to retrieve the situation and during the chaos it wasn't possible to change the story. It was imperative to get the *abduction * out there, and that simply couldn't be changed. In order to make it all seem more plausible after the spanner, a couple of attempts at a new sequence of events/movements were hastily drawn up in the timeline so that it could be referred to later. Trouble is only the second one was supposed to be seen by the police not as it turned out, both.

So if there hadn't been a hitch, a spanner, then the windows would have been seen to be forced , the PJ would have taken this proposal more seriously and many, many more people as you indicate above, would have been convinced of the abduction. It could well have simply been thwarted by bad luck, wrong person in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Hi there monkey mind. The telephone calls to the extended family were within minutes of the alarm being raised and what was told was abduction and a window and shutters being involved and that was the breaking news on the morning of the 4th may 2007.
Re pre planning. Often assumptions are made and I was once told never assume it makes an ass of u and me So it could have been preplanned with the assumption that the shutters could be forced open from the outside and stay up. But they won't. It is interesting that on the hand written timescales that the shutters are mentioned. Now why mention them? You just might as well mention baby gate closed/open or kitchen light left on or off but it wasn't, but the shutters were because imo they were an integral part of the story and so had to be included.
Yes as you say to make it more convincing then they should have forced the shutters up but that would have required time, effort and something to prop them up.
I honestly think they assumed that the shutters could be forced open from the outside and stay up.

Remember GM is reported by both DP and KM as having done a dry run on the blinds in the adults bedroom, breaking them one or two days after arriving in PdL SO KNOWING WELL IN ADVANCE THAT SHUTTERS WOULD HAVE TO BE SEEN TO HAVE BEEN JEMMIED OPEN (Pfff)

How did he know so early on in the week?
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by Spaniel on 21.07.12 16:29

30th April Madeleine was carried home from the creche as sleepy.

1st May, she was crying according to Mrs Fenn.

Had she then had an accident banging her head on April 29th?

Head injuries are critical for 24 hours. Sleepiness is a symtom. Please see my link and read through to page 5 as complications can set in later.

There may be nothing more to this than a group of doctors and negligence. The number of Drs who got it wrong, and the negligence is what would scare the British public.

The "Abduction" cry went up far too soon. Had they waited, the British Embassy could have said the child died from natural causes but maybe there was panic in the ranks.

This isn't the fist time I've purported this theory, and it's such a simple one. Brown & Co got involved to court popularity.

It doesn't alter the fund, as GM is quick to seize on an opportunity and so is his wife. I still say the tunnel light was the fund aided by News International.

http://www.brainandspine.org.uk/information/publications/brain_and_spine_booklets/head_injury_and_concussion/introduction.html
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by Spaniel on 21.07.12 16:50

@Portia wrote:
@Nina wrote:
@monkey mind wrote:
@Nina wrote:[color=darkred]onkeymind. Yes I have shutters like those so know that their suggestion of the shutters being forced and Kate saying the window was open and the curtains blowing in the wind are a lie, a huge lie. They must have thought that it was possible to raise the shutters because I cannot imagine them making such an obvious mistake in the first words that left their mouths to family and the world.
And it was the shutter issue and their lies that changed me from supporter to where I am today.

Good Afternoon Nina. Your above statement kind of proves the point I am trying to make here. People say that if it was planned there wouldn't have been such a messed up abduction account. The point is that it wasn't intended to appear that way imho. Unpredictable circumstances were the cause. If you are going to tell the world the shutters were forced only an incompetent fool would do so without making sure there was evidence to indicate they had been. But in this case it appears to me that after the plan was upset it was quite conceivable they were unable to find opportunity / or justsimply unable to force the shutters despite trying to retrieve the situation and during the chaos it wasn't possible to change the story. It was imperative to get the *abduction * out there, and that simply couldn't be changed. In order to make it all seem more plausible after the spanner, a couple of attempts at a new sequence of events/movements were hastily drawn up in the timeline so that it could be referred to later. Trouble is only the second one was supposed to be seen by the police not as it turned out, both.

So if there hadn't been a hitch, a spanner, then the windows would have been seen to be forced , the PJ would have taken this proposal more seriously and many, many more people as you indicate above, would have been convinced of the abduction. It could well have simply been thwarted by bad luck, wrong person in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Hi there monkey mind. The telephone calls to the extended family were within minutes of the alarm being raised and what was told was abduction and a window and shutters being involved and that was the breaking news on the morning of the 4th may 2007.
Re pre planning. Often assumptions are made and I was once told never assume it makes an ass of u and me So it could have been preplanned with the assumption that the shutters could be forced open from the outside and stay up. But they won't. It is interesting that on the hand written timescales that the shutters are mentioned. Now why mention them? You just might as well mention baby gate closed/open or kitchen light left on or off but it wasn't, but the shutters were because imo they were an integral part of the story and so had to be included.
Yes as you say to make it more convincing then they should have forced the shutters up but that would have required time, effort and something to prop them up.
I honestly think they assumed that the shutters could be forced open from the outside and stay up.

Remember GM is reported by both DP and KM as having done a dry run on the blinds in the adults bedroom, breaking them one or two days after arriving in PdL SO KNOWING WELL IN ADVANCE THAT SHUTTERS WOULD HAVE TO BE SEEN TO HAVE BEEN JEMMIED OPEN (Pfff)

How did he know so early on in the week?

They arrived on the 28th April. I figure Madeleine may have had an accident on 29th April. Already ning ahead? I don't think so, thre has to be another reason for the broken blinds. Everything they do has a purpose, including getting tuiton to use a washing machine. Was that to mark someone being in the apartment?

Sory for missing etters, computer playing up.
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by tuom on 21.07.12 16:54

@Nina wrote: I shall



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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by tigger on 21.07.12 18:05

@Spaniel wrote:30th April Madeleine was carried home from the creche as sleepy.

1st May, she was crying according to Mrs Fenn.

Had she then had an accident banging her head on April 29th?

Head injuries are critical for 24 hours. Sleepiness is a symtom. Please see my link and read through to page 5 as complications can set in later.

There may be nothing more to this than a group of doctors and negligence. The number of Drs who got it wrong, and the negligence is what would scare the British public.

The "Abduction" cry went up far too soon. Had they waited, the British Embassy could have said the child died from natural causes but maybe there was panic in the ranks.

This isn't the fist time I've purported this theory, and it's such a simple one. Brown & Co got involved to court popularity.

It doesn't alter the fund, as GM is quick to seize on an opportunity and so is his wife. I still say the tunnel light was the fund aided by News International.

http://www.brainandspine.org.uk/information/publications/brain_and_spine_booklets/head_injury_and_concussion/introduction.html

We're still stuck with the coloboma photograph - with inconsistencies re the Donegal holiday, with Maddie's health records, etc.
I've always argued that with their connections they could have had the PM done in the UK. Child/body shipped off and just a small news item if at all! in the media. So why not?
The Fund was the all important goal as a stepping stone to a new lifestyle. It took off much faster than they could ever have dreamt. Imo Brown didn't do it to court popularity, it's always struck me how he didn't make use of it to gain votes - no visits to the bereft parents, no photograph of him shaking hands with them or having anything to do with them or the Fund. I think GB had his very own reasons.

I would love it to be a simple story but you are not including Murat's return, the phone records etc. The immediate aftermath was also full of inexplicable actions.
If she'd been carried home from the creche on the 30th and died say on the evening of the 1st of May - why not simply go through the normal channels? The neglect issue could be covered up, there were two baby monitors and they could simply say she'd hit her head whilst playing - didn't realise till later etc.
If the friends lied about the abduction, how much easier to lie about the neglect. MW certainly wouldn't have made a fuss, quite the contrary.

Unfortunately, it isn't a simple story, it would have stayed a lot simpler if the PJ had believed them.

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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by Spaniel on 21.07.12 18:19

@tigger wrote:
@Spaniel wrote:30th April Madeleine was carried home from the creche as sleepy.

1st May, she was crying according to Mrs Fenn.

Had she then had an accident banging her head on April 29th?

Head injuries are critical for 24 hours. Sleepiness is a symtom. Please see my link and read through to page 5 as complications can set in later.

There may be nothing more to this than a group of doctors and negligence. The number of Drs who got it wrong, and the negligence is what would scare the British public.

The "Abduction" cry went up far too soon. Had they waited, the British Embassy could have said the child died from natural causes but maybe there was panic in the ranks.

This isn't the fist time I've purported this theory, and it's such a simple one. Brown & Co got involved to court popularity.

It doesn't alter the fund, as GM is quick to seize on an opportunity and so is his wife. I still say the tunnel light was the fund aided by News International.

http://www.brainandspine.org.uk/information/publications/brain_and_spine_booklets/head_injury_and_concussion/introduction.html

We're still stuck with the coloboma photograph - with inconsistencies re the Donegal holiday, with Maddie's health records, etc.
I've always argued that with their connections they could have had the PM done in the UK. Child/body shipped off and just a small news item if at all! in the media. So why not?
The Fund was the all important goal as a stepping stone to a new lifestyle. It took off much faster than they could ever have dreamt. Imo Brown didn't do it to court popularity, it's always struck me how he didn't make use of it to gain votes - no visits to the bereft parents, no photograph of him shaking hands with them or having anything to do with them or the Fund. I think GB had his very own reasons.

I would love it to be a simple story but you are not including Murat's return, the phone records etc. The immediate aftermath was also full of inexplicable actions.
If she'd been carried home from the creche on the 30th and died say on the evening of the 1st of May - why not simply go through the normal channels? The neglect issue could be covered up, there were two baby monitors and they could simply say she'd hit her head whilst playing - didn't realise till later etc.
If the friends lied about the abduction, how much easier to lie about the neglect. MW certainly wouldn't have made a fuss, quite the contrary.

Unfortunately, it isn't a simple story, it would have stayed a lot simpler if the PJ had believed them.

I prefer it to all the photoshopping nonsense!
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by jd on 21.07.12 18:27

I prefer it to all the photoshopping nonsense!

Am afraid it is not nonsense. Whatever the true reasons are, there has been a lot of photoshopping going on. Most likely to help sell their 'abduction' story with materials they didn't have
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Re: MMC 15 minutes at the Creche

Post by tuom on 21.07.12 18:55

@Spaniel wrote:
@tigger wrote:
@Spaniel wrote:30th April Madeleine was carried home from the creche as sleepy.

1st May, she was crying according to Mrs Fenn.

Had she then had an accident banging her head on April 29th?

Head injuries are critical for 24 hours. Sleepiness is a symtom. Please see my link and read through to page 5 as complications can set in later.

There may be nothing more to this than a group of doctors and negligence. The number of Drs who got it wrong, and the negligence is what would scare the British public.

The "Abduction" cry went up far too soon. Had they waited, the British Embassy could have said the child died from natural causes but maybe there was panic in the ranks.

This isn't the fist time I've purported this theory, and it's such a simple one. Brown & Co got involved to court popularity.

It doesn't alter the fund, as GM is quick to seize on an opportunity and so is his wife. I still say the tunnel light was the fund aided by News International.

http://www.brainandspine.org.uk/information/publications/brain_and_spine_booklets/head_injury_and_concussion/introduction.html

We're still stuck with the coloboma photograph - with inconsistencies re the Donegal holiday, with Maddie's health records, etc.
I've always argued that with their connections they could have had the PM done in the UK. Child/body shipped off and just a small news item if at all! in the media. So why not?
The Fund was the all important goal as a stepping stone to a new lifestyle. It took off much faster than they could ever have dreamt. Imo Brown didn't do it to court popularity, it's always struck me how he didn't make use of it to gain votes - no visits to the bereft parents, no photograph of him shaking hands with them or having anything to do with them or the Fund. I think GB had his very own reasons.

I would love it to be a simple story but you are not including Murat's return, the phone records etc. The immediate aftermath was also full of inexplicable actions.
If she'd been carried home from the creche on the 30th and died say on the evening of the 1st of May - why not simply go through the normal channels? The neglect issue could be covered up, there were two baby monitors and they could simply say she'd hit her head whilst playing - didn't realise till later etc.
If the friends lied about the abduction, how much easier to lie about the neglect. MW certainly wouldn't have made a fuss, quite the contrary.

Unfortunately, it isn't a simple story, it would have stayed a lot simpler if the PJ had believed them.

I prefer it to all the photoshopping nonsense!



Is there a link for the statement in blue above ? I do hope so as that is what I have been trying to make sense of
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