The Complete Mystery of Madeleine McCann™
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New Madeleine McCann Case Analysis by Profiler Chelsea Hoffman Mm11

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The Complete Mystery of Madeleine McCann™
Welcome to 'The Complete Mystery of Madeleine McCann' forum 🌹

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New Madeleine McCann Case Analysis by Profiler Chelsea Hoffman Mm11

New Madeleine McCann Case Analysis by Profiler Chelsea Hoffman Regist10

New Madeleine McCann Case Analysis by Profiler Chelsea Hoffman

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New Madeleine McCann Case Analysis by Profiler Chelsea Hoffman Empty New Madeleine McCann Case Analysis by Profiler Chelsea Hoffman

Post by sharonl 29.04.12 8:29

New Madeleine McCann Case Analysis by Profiler Chelsea Hoffman

**Note** This is Part One of a series that will include several, several posts breaking the case down into chunks starting from the very beginning (and before). Keep in mind that the following is focusing ONLY on the stats of Portugal and whether or not a stranger abduction is statistically likely in the case of this child's disappearance. The evidence in the case with deep analysis will be throughout the many posts starting after this one. Any questions can be asked on Twitter @TheRealChelseaH or via the Contact button in the top menu.

The 2007 disappearance of Madeleine McCann gripped the entire world it seems. Now it's 2012 and there are still no answers in this case. Still, the public wants answers and it appears as though the McCanns at least show some kind of interest in continuing the search for the missing girl. The following case analysis is an attempt at digging down to the very beginning of this case in hopes of either confirming or disputing current offender profile/case profile theories regarding little Maddie.

Current working theories:

Stranger abduction
Familiar abduction (acquaintance/loved one/friend)
Foul play (with parents' knowledge [i.e. cover-up])
Foul play (without parents' knowledge)
Variable X ( To be discussed)

To summarize the case, Madeleine McCann vanished on the evening of May 3, 2007 -- a Thursday night. It was just days before the missing girl's fourth birthday. With her mother, father and twin siblings, Maddie was on vacation in Portugal -- staying at Praia da Luz in an apartment somewhere in the center of the resort. This central location seems to add to the mystery surrounding the case -- seeing as though the place was rather conspicuous. Kate and Gerry McCann, Maddie's parents, claim that they had left the child alone with her siblings to dine at a nearby cantina. The restaurant was approximately 130 yards away from the unsupervised children. Madeleine has not been found yet, and it's been five years. With this case being as high profile as it is on an international level, there is plenty of nonsense published regarding the case. There are plenty of lies, rumors and convoluted facts that need addressing and sifting through in order to get down to the core of the investigation.

There are also PR campaigns and hate groups -- much like with the Amanda Knox case. Certainly some of these groups mean well, but it's important to pay attention to facts and actually explore every possible theory without getting tunnel vision. That's why I'm here. First I want to highlight statistics of the area of the alleged disappearance of Madeleine McCann.

Algarve, Portugal
Population: over 450,000 (variable: increases to over 1 Million during tourism months [i.e. summertime]
Economics: #3 in wealthiest Portugal cities
Sociology/Politics: parliamentary constitutional republic/Catholic, evangelical, Christian, other.
Crime summary: Supposedly no "gangs" but an epicenter for drug trafficking and crimes against wealthy visitors and expats. (possible human trafficking?) CIA Worldbook states that Portugal itself is inundated with Latin American cocaine, hashish from North Africa and Southwest Asian heroin. Record amounts of these drugs have been seized in Portugal in general -- Algarve growing in high crime rate related to these drugs and due to the diminishing economy. Drug Crimes in Portugal make up for quite a large percentage of the population. Nearly 4,000 out of ever 100,000 people have committed drug offenses in the country.
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Missing cases in Algarve and surrounding areas: undefined
Homicide rate: Gun violence and murdered committed by "youths" dominant in Portugal
Unsolved homicide rate: undefined
Sex crime rate: 0.2% -- weighted average (worldwide) is 0.6% -- New Zealand leading in sex crimes (i.e. rapes) Portugal is very low on the list of rape statistics. However, this only accounts for reported rapes. Compare 0.2% to the revolving 1 Million occupants of Algarve, that statistic comes to - 200,000 potential rape victims annually. However, there are no close stats to report of Algarve -- it appears that the crime rate in general for all of Portugal is among the lowest in the world's aside from drug related offenses.
Child crime rate: undefined
Crime total: 218,360 -- far lower than United States, Australia and even Sweden!

Corruption crimes make up for 15%, 47% and 17% of crimes in Portugal (split into three categories i.e. business, property and courts)


Analyze the stats: Stranger Abduction Theory
Given the extremely low crime rate of Portugal as a nation, it's hard to take notice of the "abduction" scenario in the Madeleine McCann disappearance. Looking at the various crime stats in the country compared to the population of the Algarve area, it's hard to fully accept the theory that Maddie was abducted by a stranger.

Nonetheless, the sheer negligence of Kate and Gerry McCann could have alerted any nearby predators. They admitted to leaving the kids alone more than once -- this could have been their undoing. There is always the chance that this could have happened. However, predators of this level are not impulse predators but calculative. With a calculative predator in the Algarve area, there would most likely be other cases of missing children and women. Upon researching the stats, there don't appear to be any readily available for a surface profile of the statistics. A calculative predator that is capable, and willing, to abduct a three-year old girl from her parent's vacation rental, with only the window of time left by the parents, is most likely a serial predator. (mind the commas!)
Check it out: If this child was abducted by a stranger, there would be at least two more cases of missing young girls in the region over the past decade or so. There haven't been any that have been reported. This is a modern European region, so it's hard to believe that there would be a vast amount of unreported disappearances and kidnappings. The fact that Madeleine's story hit international news wasn't entirely because she was a cute blonde girl from England who vanished on vacation. No, it was also because there simply isn't that kind of crime to be spoken of in the Algarve. That doesn't mean that there is absolutely none, but none to speak of -- meaning, the cases would have made headlines as well especially if any of the disappearances occurred after Maddie's disappearance.

Now there is always the possibility of corruption and coverups on the side of law enforcement in Algarve -- which isn't unlikely given the stats of corruption in Portugal in general.

Again, the likelihood of Madeleine McCann being abducted by a stranger is slim to none.

Please stay tuned for Part Two of my profile in which I will delve into the possibilities of abduction by someone she knew, or foul play. Part two will be a long one! Keep in mind that I am doing this in chunks starting with a statistical analysis. Next I will be looking into all known evidence and statements made regarding the first 48 hours of the case.

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New Madeleine McCann Case Analysis by Profiler Chelsea Hoffman Empty Re: New Madeleine McCann Case Analysis by Profiler Chelsea Hoffman

Post by Guest 03.05.12 12:54

Part 2

May 2, 2012Madeleine McCann Case Analysis Part Two; Someone She Knew
This is the second part of my multi-post series regarding the disappearance of Madeleine McCann, the three-year old girl who vanished from Portugal in 2007. The case is still red-hot due to the mystery and confusion surrounding it. Click here to read part one of the series focusing on only the statistics of a "stranger abduction" in the area from which Maddie vanished. In this post I will consider the probability of this child being abducted by someone the family had either known or been acquainted with during the course of their vacation.

I would like for everyone to keep in mind that I am doing this from a 100% fresh point-of-view, meaning I've never really covered this case until recently and I've never had first-hand information. Nor have I ever "studied" the case like I have so many others. I feel that this brings a new perspective to the table instead of the same tired UK and U.S. sensationalism about the kid's disappearance. Read further for my analysis:

Four months after Madeleine McCann vanished, Portugal police named Kate and Gerry McCann as suspects in her disappearance. The mother claimed that police were trying to get her to falsely confess to the child dying in an accident and she and her husband disposed of the body. She's disputed this claim from the beginning, and even though this topic won't be discussed until the next post, it's important to point out that it could also have something to do with the idea of an acquaintance, friend or loved one being responsible. It should be pointed out that they are "no longer suspects," and have made quite a lot of money suing people who've referred to them as such.

Before I go into all of this, I just want to clear one piece of bias out of the way: I don't think Madeleine is alive. It's just statistically unlikely, and even if she was alive how likely is it that she'd be having a good time wherever it is she's being held? I know that I am supposed to be going through this with an unbiased set of eyes, but let's just call things how they are for a minute, right? With the international attention this child received, it's unlikely to consider someone took her and is keeping her alive. Especially considering she has the very unique eye blemish. If someone was keeping this girl alive somewhere, she'd never be able to go in public because of this. You would have to be absolutely stupid to abduct such a unique-looking child and then parade her around the world. Considering that this extremely high profile case still has detectives all over the world stumped, it's unlikely that an idiot pulled off an abduction with the intent of keeping her alive for any reason. That isn't saying it's absolutely impossible for her to be alive, but I'm certainly saying holding onto false hope over such an unlikely thing is counter productive to the case.

In the last chapter, I discussed how statistically unlikely it is for a "stranger" to have abducted little Maddie. I still stand by this analysis. However, I would like to clarify on what we're considering a "stranger" at this point. A stranger abduction, in the context I am using, would mean that the family hadn't met the person. It would be by chance that the person went into the vacation home to abduct only one child and not the other two -- who were also young.

However, an acquaintance could very well have pulled off the abduction.

What would constitute as an acquaintance in this case? Anyone who came into contact with the family during their vacation leading up to Madeleine's disappearance. If there is any likelihood that this child was "abducted" at all and not the victim of immediate foul play, it could have been any individual (or group!) that had seen the child, talked to the child or had casual contact with the family. The person (or persons) responsible would have to know where the McCann's were lodging and the acquaintance would have to know the small window of time the child was left alone with enough certainty to not get caught.

Jane Tanner -- one of the friends eating with the McCanns while their children slept unattended in their vacation cottage.

Jane Tanner claimed to have seen someone carrying a child away earlier that night. By May 5, 2007 police in Portugal had a sketch of a suspect, believing Madeleine was still alive at the time. (It's been reported that the man seen carrying a child was reported by another family in the area who gave a description very similar to Gerry McCann.) It should also be pointed out that Tanner only told a few of her friends about the alleged abductor, but not the parents of the missing girl. They weren't told until a little later. Strange, indeed.

It should be pointed out that during the course of the dinner the parents and their friends shared while the children were left unattended, the father checked on them (or so they claim) at around 9:00 p.m., when Kate McCann returned to the villa at 10:00 p.m., the little girl was gone ,but the other two children remained.

How long was Gerry McCann gone when he left to check on Madeleine at 9:00p.m., that night?

It wasn't until the 14th of May, 2007, that a man by the name of Robert Murat was taken in for questioning as a suspect in the disappearance of Madeleine McCann. He was suspected right along with the parents of the missing girl at one time, but over the course of the past few years they've all been "cleared,' but the details in this case are strange.

Robert Murat was living in the area, and according to some reports, was seen in the area of the McCann's cottage the night the little girl was allegedly abducted. It's reported that the only people who claimed to have seen Murat that night were among those who were friends with the McCanns. Nobody who "knew" the man witnessed him near the area. Like this story has shown over the past five years, these accounts changed to other witnesses seeing the man near the cottage.

Was Robert Murat an acquaintance of the McCann family or a friend? When asked, Gerry McCann replied "No comment," so it's unknown but it certainly does seem dodgy. Would it be safe to say that this one-time suspect is an acquaintance or a one-time friend or associate? It seems odd that Gerry McCann would say "no comment" when really a yes or no answer more than suffices.

While statistically the majority of child abductions are done for reasons of sexual purpose, the majority also involve people who know the victim. It was commented that the idea of a stranger abduction is "statistically unlikely" in my last installment. Which also needs a correction. This article points out that there have been thirty disappearances of children in Portugal since the disappearance of Madeleine McCann. None of them solved, of course.


Blanket left behind as well as Maddie's "cuddle kitty." Only the child was taken, evidently.
Window confusion: Was it open or was it shut? It doesn't really matter at this point because the only verifiable fingerprints lifted from the window in their cottage belonged to Kate McCann -- the mother. It should be acknowledged that Kate McCann claimed the window was open and tampered with, but it wasn't and her spokesperson had to retract her statement. This doesn't lend to the possibility of a stranger abduction. It makes Kate McCann look bad.
Cadaver and blood dog evidence in the McCann's apartment, 5A, and only in their apartment. No scents leading out of the home that indicate the child walked or was led out of the home alive.
Matthew Oldfield allegedly checked the McCann's apartment "from the outside" at around 9:00p.m., about five minutes before Gerry McCann checked on the kids inside.
Door was "wider than before" when Gerry McCann checked on children at around 9:05 p.m., the night of the alleged abduction. He was allegedly gone for only three to five minutes checking on the kids.
Approximately 40-45 minutes after Gerry returned from checking, Kate McCann checked on children and this is when Madeleine was gone.
Even though I'm a bit interested in why Matthew Oldfield checked on the apartment, but "only from the outside"(specific claim) I still can't make an assumption that he, as an acquaintance, could have the opportunity to do something with Maddie. The window of time is only a couple of minutes. Furthermore, no forensic evidence appeared to put him anywhere near the scene of this alleged abduction. So let's strike him out.

The only idea that pops up in my mind is the possibility of the once-suspected Robert Murat at least knowing more than he's let on in the case. The sheer suspicion of Gerry McCann refusing to comment on whether they know each other or not is just disturbing to me; especially since all three of these people have been called suspects before. Let it be known, however, that they haven't been cleared of anything, so they're still persons of interest in this case -- as far as I know about how the court systems work that is. It could be far different overseas, but perhaps that's a reason why this case hasn't met any type of resolution?

I have gone over several years of "evidence" and literature in the past week and have found absolutely no verifiable forensic evidence that necessarily substantiates an abduction theory of any kind, much less by someone who knew the family.

I am not saying that it isn't possible, because absolutely it is statistically possible and probable in essence as well.

However, the evidence that is available just doesn't support the idea of any form of abduction occurring. All that remains is the loud protests of the family claiming that she had to have been abducted, even though there had to have only been a two-three minute window of opportunity for any type of abductor to pull this off without leaving any signs of forensic evidence identifying him, her or them.

It just doesn't jive, folks.

Stay tuned for part three!

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