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Theory

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Re: Theory

Post by noddy100 on 11.06.14 8:28

@Naz_Nomad wrote:
@Garth wrote:Yeh, wot a load of crap!
 
I have a far simpler one.
 
Two abductors watch apartment.
 
McCanns go to dine.  Abuctors wait.....one enters via patio door, the other watches over and then goes around to front. Person inside drugs child with sedative but then disturbed by GM.......hides in closet. GM leaves, abductor opens window, picks up child and passes her to accomplice. Accomplice makes away. Abductor leaves via front door. JT spots accomplice with child. Accomplice gets child out of sight before making way to other side of PDL but is then spotted by Smiths.
 
Uncomplicated and fits exactly what we know. Even allowing for the dumb PJ.
 
Simple!
 
 spit coffee    sarcastic  laugh  rotfl  oh go on  spit coffee    sarcastic  laugh  rotfl  oh go on  spit coffee    sarcastic  laugh  rotfl  oh go on  spit coffee    sarcastic  laugh  rotfl  oh go on
 
Oh dear Gareth is exactly the McC. target market poor thing

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Re: Theory

Post by fossey on 11.06.14 8:34

I actually thought this Garth bloke's first post was just a humorous deliberate p*ss take at first. 

Then started reading more and realised that he was being deadly serious with his 'ludicrous' thesis.

I wonder if Gerry or Kate have ever posted on here over the years under various alias'..

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Re: Theory

Post by DurhamGuy1967 on 11.06.14 9:48

SY seem to me  to be reinvestigating all evidence to ascertain its reliability and investigating every other possible lead no matter how implausible. After another 7 years no one should be able ask "what about tractorman?" or any other possible theories.


I'm sure SY will want to interview as many witnesses as possible. If some do not co-operate they may need to be arrested to allow this interview and I believe this may be the source of the rumours of possible arrests.

For the PJ prosecute someone for being involved in the disappearance of Madeleine the SY would need to find some very significant evidence.


I believe it is possible that at the end of this exhaustive process the gist of the statement may be "After thoroughly investigating all possible leads and theories no more significant evidence has been uncovered since the original investigation and due to the lack of new evidence it is unlikely that anyone will be prosecuted with an offence connected to Madeleine's disappearance." --not a whitewash, but allowing people to draw their own conclusions. 

It's possible the Libel trial will collapse in some way and Redwood will write a best seller.

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Re: Theory

Post by lj on 11.06.14 17:15

@DurhamGuy1967 wrote:SY seem to me  to be reinvestigating all evidence to ascertain its reliability and investigating every other possible lead no matter how implausible. After another 7 years no one should be able ask "what about tractorman?" or any other possible theories.


I'm sure SY will want to interview as many witnesses as possible. If some do not co-operate they may need to be arrested to allow this interview and I believe this may be the source of the rumours of possible arrests.

For the PJ prosecute someone for being involved in the disappearance of Madeleine the SY would need to find some very significant evidence.


I believe it is possible that at the end of this exhaustive process the gist of the statement may be "After thoroughly investigating all possible leads and theories no more significant evidence has been uncovered since the original investigation and due to the lack of new evidence it is unlikely that anyone will be prosecuted with an offence connected to Madeleine's disappearance." --not a whitewash, but allowing people to draw their own conclusions. 

It's possible the Libel trial will collapse in some way and Redwood will write a best seller.


If the "thoroughly investigating" does not include investigating the pathetiuc parents and their friends it is a whitewash.

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Re: Theory

Post by Okeydokey on 11.06.14 21:59

Precisely!  Surely the first port of call would be with the Tapas 9 people - focussing on the oddities and discrepancies in their accounts e.g. MO's account of his visit to check on the children.

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Re: Theory

Post by DurhamGuy1967 on 11.06.14 23:00

@Okeydokey wrote:
@lj wrote:
@DurhamGuy1967 wrote:SY seem to me  to be reinvestigating all evidence to ascertain its reliability and investigating every other possible lead no matter how implausible. After another 7 years no one should be able ask "what about tractorman?" or any other possible theories.


I'm sure SY will want to interview as many witnesses as possible. If some do not co-operate they may need to be arrested to allow this interview and I believe this may be the source of the rumours of possible arrests.

For the PJ prosecute someone for being involved in the disappearance of Madeleine the SY would need to find some very significant evidence.


I believe it is possible that at the end of this exhaustive process the gist of the statement may be "After thoroughly investigating all possible leads and theories no more significant evidence has been uncovered since the original investigation and due to the lack of new evidence it is unlikely that anyone will be prosecuted with an offence connected to Madeleine's disappearance." --not a whitewash, but allowing people to draw their own conclusions. 

It's possible the Libel trial will collapse in some way and Redwood will write a best seller.


If the "thoroughly investigating" does not include investigating the pathetiuc parents and their friends it is a whitewash.

Precisely!  Surely the first port of call would be with the Tapas 9 people - focussing on the oddities and discrepancies in their accounts e.g. MO's account of his visit to check on the children.
I'm sure they are , we wouldn't know

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Re: Theory

Post by Justformaddie on 24.06.14 11:56

Sofa, accident and death could work IMO half hour checks couldn't have happened, on the 1st mrs fenn heard crying for 1hr 15mins, 2nd may km states they stayed until 11:50 with no checks for 45mins (if you believe that) but on 3rd it would have been impossible for abduction with all of there coming and goings. She could have fallen behind the sofa on the 1st or 2nd, plenty of time for the plans to be set. All IMO

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Re: Theory

Post by cassius on 24.06.14 13:20

@Justformaddie wrote:Sofa, accident and death could work IMO half hour checks couldn't have happened, on the 1st mrs fenn heard crying for 1hr 15mins, 2nd may km states they stayed until 11:50 with no checks for 45mins (if you believe that) but on 3rd it would have been impossible for abduction with all of there coming and goings. She could have fallen behind the sofa on the 1st or 2nd, plenty of time for the plans to be set. All IMO
Agreed.Also Mrs Fenn heard nothing all evening on the 3rd till 10.30 pm.

Deafening Silence.

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Re: Theory

Post by worriedmum on 24.06.14 14:01

@cassius wrote:
@Justformaddie wrote:Sofa, accident and death could work IMO half hour checks couldn't have happened, on the 1st mrs fenn heard crying for 1hr 15mins, 2nd may km states they stayed until 11:50 with no checks for 45mins (if you believe that) but on 3rd it would have been impossible for abduction with all of there coming and goings. She could have fallen behind the sofa on the 1st or 2nd, plenty of time for the plans to be set. All IMO
Agreed.Also Mrs Fenn heard nothing all evening on the 3rd till 10.30 pm.

Deafening Silence.
Good point!
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Re: Theory

Post by Justformaddie on 24.06.14 16:50

If only maddie had the loving parents and family she truly deserved her remains would be found (if there are any) and laid to rest with dignity. But no, not when there's millions to be made, trawling the globe and TV sofas to be sat on. That's what is not fair!
IMO as always

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Re: Theory

Post by whatliesbehindthesofa on 24.06.14 16:58

@cassius wrote:
@Justformaddie wrote:Sofa, accident and death could work IMO half hour checks couldn't have happened, on the 1st mrs fenn heard crying for 1hr 15mins, 2nd may km states they stayed until 11:50 with no checks for 45mins (if you believe that) but on 3rd it would have been impossible for abduction with all of there coming and goings. She could have fallen behind the sofa on the 1st or 2nd, plenty of time for the plans to be set. All IMO
Agreed.Also Mrs Fenn heard nothing all evening on the 3rd till 10.30 pm.

Deafening Silence.

I went through the statements of the Tapas bar staff recently in another thread and concluded that the alert must have been at around 9.45pm.  However, I've spent the last few weeks reading through *all* the available statements, and I am now certain that the alert was raised at around 10.10pm - 10.15pm.  On the Tapas group's typewritten timeline they put the alert at 10.00pm APPROX.  Lindsey Johnson put the missing child procedures into action at about 10.25pm, and called manager John Hill at 10.28pm.  John Hill claims to have visited reception when he arrived, but according to reception a Tapas staff member was sent there - this could just be a case of delegation - and reception phoned the GNR at 10.42.  A few minutes later John Hill and Gerry visited reception, and the receptionist called the GNR again at 10.51.

I'm pretty certain that the alert was no earlier than 10.10pm.  Two of the bar staff recall Russell O'Brien leaving the table for 15 minutes - actually corroborated by the Tapas group's timelines - and also Gerry leaving the table for 30 minutes, *after* Russell left, and the Tapas timelines make no mention of that.

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Re: Theory

Post by Newintown on 24.06.14 16:59

@Justformaddie wrote:If only maddie had the loving parents and family she truly deserved her remains would be found (if there are any) and laid to rest with dignity. But no, not when there's millions to be made, trawling the globe and TV sofas to be sat on. That's what is not fair!
IMO as always

Justformaddie, I think you've just summed up the past 7 years in a nutshell, unfortunately.

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Re: Theory

Post by Justformaddie on 24.06.14 17:07

@Newintown wrote:
@Justformaddie wrote:If only maddie had the loving parents and family she truly deserved her remains would be found (if there are any) and laid to rest with dignity. But no, not when there's millions to be made, trawling the globe and TV sofas to be sat on. That's what is not fair!
IMO as always

Justformaddie, I think you've just summed up the past 7 years in a nutshell, unfortunately.
I hope it's not possible to cry in heaven, poor maddie would not be able to stop, but, what goes around comes around and they'll have to face her again IMO

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Re: Theory

Post by Woofer on 24.06.14 17:17

@worriedmum wrote:
@cassius wrote:
@Justformaddie wrote:Sofa, accident and death could work IMO half hour checks couldn't have happened, on the 1st mrs fenn heard crying for 1hr 15mins, 2nd may km states they stayed until 11:50 with no checks for 45mins (if you believe that) but on 3rd it would have been impossible for abduction with all of there coming and goings. She could have fallen behind the sofa on the 1st or 2nd, plenty of time for the plans to be set. All IMO
Agreed.Also Mrs Fenn heard nothing all evening on the 3rd till 10.30 pm.

Deafening Silence.
Good point!
Not necessarily deafening silence, because she had the television on.

"When asked, she replied that on 3rd May she did not hear any noise from the McCann apartment, not even the opening of doors. She also said that before hearing the shouts she was watching television, as she often stays up late. "

Now, was it when she switched the TV off that she heard things - as in the night of the 1st when she again heard crying from 10.30pm - could this be the time she switches the TV off?
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Re: Theory

Post by worriedmum on 24.06.14 18:09

That 's such a horrible thought, that the crying could have been going on for even longer than the period Mrs Fenn heard.
I have to admit I find the 'sound of patio door ' followed by the crying stopping less likely than the crying stopping then hearing the door-I just don't think you would notice the sound of the door if the crying was going on still...
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Re: Theory

Post by Justformaddie on 24.06.14 21:34

I wonder with cadaver scent behind the sofa, the logical explanation would be a surprise visit. If something happened whilst km was on her own with 3 young children, seen dp coming, that might be the reason for the cadaver scent behind the sofa? Maybe she tried to hide her from dp. Maybe dp found out because km was in a panic, tried to calm her down and then went to the tennis courts to tell gm to go back to the villa ASAP? No facts stated here IMO

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Re: Theory

Post by Okeydokey on 24.06.14 23:11

@Newintown wrote:
@justathought wrote:Seems recent events have done nothing to damage this theory? might even be that they have confirmed it may be a credible one. 
JT's sighting now out of the equation.
Mr Oldfield's "evidence" as to his check seeming more and more under suspicion. stranger allowed to check on children, didn't even walk two more steps to enter further into the room, but saw an unoccupied bed by the window, he was sure it was not Madeleine's bed? the sound of children "stiring" from their sleep is a good one, not hearing silence.
plus, Mr Oldfield could not have seen the twins in their cots from where he was stood, work the maths. he would have also cast a shadow into the bedroom from the living room light to make it almost impossible to discern things.
I said that a long, long time ago but everyone ignored my post.  There was no way that Oldfield could have see the twin in the right hand cot unless he had walked some way into the room to look over the back panel of the cot which was solid wood, if he had done that he would have seen that Madeleine's bed on the left hand side was empty (if she'd been "abducted" at the time).

I've made similar points - mesh sides in semi-darkness. From that angle he would not have been able to see the rise and fall of their chests as he claimed he could.

OIdfield is the weakest link. That's where any decent investigation would start.

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Re: Theory

Post by joyce1938 on 25.06.14 11:10

I believe that its possible we cant believe the times visited or were they visits ? It doesn't seem to fit somehow that times of checking are real at all ,just to keep us all trying to set a time etc . Am torn between that scenario at all  but don't bepieve it has been too helpful at all . joyce1938
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Re: Theory

Post by whatliesbehindthesofa on 25.06.14 11:57

Just look at the statements of the Tapas staff.  Multiple staff members saw Russell O'Brien leave the table for 15 minutes (or the 'tall' one, at 6 foot 6 Russell certainly qualifies there), and they had to reheat his beef steak.  They also saw Gerry leave the table *after* Russell, for 30 minutes.  No mention of Jane Tanner leaving the table.  No mention of Matthew Oldfield leaving the table.  Also note that the only dinner they had to reheat was Russell's, so I assume that the person who left after him had already eaten theirs.

According to the Tapas group Oldfield left the table at the same time as O'Brien.  Not likely, as multiple staff members described O'Brien leaving the table *by himself*.

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Re: Theory

Post by tigger on 25.06.14 14:25

@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:Just look at the statements of the Tapas staff.  Multiple staff members saw Russell O'Brien leave the table for 15 minutes (or the 'tall' one, at 6 foot 6 Russell certainly qualifies there), and they had to reheat his beef steak.  They also saw Gerry leave the table *after* Russell, for 30 minutes.  No mention of Jane Tanner leaving the table.  No mention of Matthew Oldfield leaving the table.  Also note that the only dinner they had to reheat was Russell's, so I assume that the person who left after him had already eaten theirs.

According to the Tapas group Oldfield left the table at the same time as O'Brien.  Not likely, as multiple staff members described O'Brien leaving the table *by himself*.

More points to do with Gerry's absence:

JT in the reconstruction  remarked on Gerry being away so long that they thought he was watching football. Iirc she got a snarl from Gerry for that.

In the Expresso interview (see topic on that and full transcript) gerry plays down the Smith sighting and says he was at the table at that time.

Allegedly (I think Portuguese press) one of the changes in the Paynes' statement on 11/7/07 was that they no longer placed Gerry at the table.

From: https://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t6760-expresso-interview-2008?highlight=Expresso

Gerry – We firmly believe that she was abducted by a man, minutes after I went to see her in the bedroom. There are two independent witnesses that saw a child of around four years of age being carried that evening. Our friend Jane Tanner and also the Smith family.

Q – The PJ discredits Jane Tanner's testimony. They say that when she saw said man with the child, you [Gerry] were chatting nearby and it was impossible that you hadn’t seen him as well…

Gerry – I didn't see her because my back was turned to the location where she passed. I was talking to a friend. And there is also the couple with children that saw a man carrying a child with pyjamas that were similar to Madeleine's, blond hair, the same age.

Q – Later on, that family stated that the man they saw was Gerry…

Gerry – At that time I was at the restaurant. The fact that we became suspects has probably influenced the Smiths' testimony.

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Re: Theory

Post by whatliesbehindthesofa on 25.06.14 15:01

@tigger - yes, good additions.  I believe the statements of the Tapas bar staff, and they seem to be consistent with each other.

I have a suspicion that one of the reasons Oldfield was dragged into the timeline with the 9:30 check (IMO totally fictional) was to account for someone leaving the table after Russell O'Brien.  The Tapas staff seemed to believe that person was Gerry, but the Tapas group could claim that it was actually Matt.

This all raises a very important question - if Gerry did leave the table for 30 minutes after Russell O'Brien left, why did the Tapas group claim that he didn't?  (Of course, I have my own theory on that!)

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Re: Theory

Post by Tony Bennett on 25.06.14 18:54

@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:I have a suspicion that...
Unfortunately, because you came up with this sudden change of mind this yesterday:

QUOTE

"I went through the statements of the Tapas bar staff recently in another thread and concluded that the alert must have been at around 9.45pm.

However, I've spent the last few weeks reading through *all* the available statements, and I am now certain that the alert was raised at around 10.10pm - 10.15pm...I'm pretty certain that the alert was no earlier than 10.10pm..."

UNQUOTE

...it becomes difficult to take seriously your suspicions and your ever-changing theories about the events of the evening of 3 May 2007.

You must also define precisely what you mean by 'the alert'. You have been swinging from 9.45pm to 10.15pm for the time of the alert.

But:

* who do you say gave the 'alert'?

* where was that person when the 'alert' was given?

* to whom was that 'alert' conveyed?

* how was this 'alert' conveyed.

When we understand more about exactly what you mean by the 'alert', and about the 'alert', we might all be able to better understand your reasons for oscillating between two times half-an-hour apart from each other

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Re: Theory

Post by whatliesbehindthesofa on 25.06.14 19:04

Just changed my mind Tony after reading through more of the available statements.  Surely you can understand that.  I thought before that the alert might have been at 9.45pm, now I've changed my mind and think it's more likely to be around 10.10pm - 10.15pm.  No 'oscillating', or swinging back and forth between theories involved.

And I'm not particularly interested in whether you take my theories 'seriously', as the feeling is mutual.  We all have our own opinions.

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Re: Theory

Post by Tony Bennett on 25.06.14 20:02

@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:Just changed my mind Tony after reading through more of the available statements.  Surely you can understand that.  I thought before that the alert might have been at 9.45pm, now I've changed my mind and think it's more likely to be around 10.10pm - 10.15pm.  No 'oscillating', or swinging back and forth between theories involved.

And I'm not particularly interested in whether you take my theories 'seriously', as the feeling is mutual.  We all have our own opinions.
Could you please at least address these questions before we move on:

But:

* who do you say gave the 'alert'?

* where was that person when the 'alert' was given?

* to whom was that 'alert' conveyed?

* how was this 'alert' conveyed?



It would greatly aid the debate on this important subject

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Re: Theory

Post by whatliesbehindthesofa on 25.06.14 20:11

@Tony Bennett wrote:
@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:Just changed my mind Tony after reading through more of the available statements.  Surely you can understand that.  I thought before that the alert might have been at 9.45pm, now I've changed my mind and think it's more likely to be around 10.10pm - 10.15pm.  No 'oscillating', or swinging back and forth between theories involved.

And I'm not particularly interested in whether you take my theories 'seriously', as the feeling is mutual.  We all have our own opinions.
Could you please at least address these questions before we move on:

But:

* who do you say gave the 'alert'?

* where was that person when the 'alert' was given?

* to whom was that 'alert' conveyed?

* how was this 'alert' conveyed?



It would greatly aid the debate on this important subject

When I say 'alert', am I talking about the time when members of the general public became involved, the time at which the disappearance went from being a private matter known only to the Tapas 9, to a public matter known by other individuals.  None of the Tapas bar staff directly witnessed the alert as described by the Tapas 9, which is the account of Kate running into the Tapas screaming.  Instead, the sequence of events that was witnessed seems to have been:

- Russell O'Brien leaves table for 15 minutes, his steak is reheated
- Gerry McCann leaves table for 30 minutes, his food wasn't reheated, and he left after O'Brien
- Gerry returns to the table after half an hour
- Kate leaves almost immediately
- A few moments later, everyone else except DW left the table

As the evening progresses we have witnesses who see David Payne and Matthew Oldfield searching in bushes etc., Gerry rushing into the Tapas area while DW is still seated and heading for the pool and children's play area, and a female British tourist turning up at the creche where Amy Tierney and Charlotte Pennington are on duty.  Pretty soon Lindsey Johnson is aware of the disappearance, she puts the missing child procedures into action, and then she phones John Hill.  By this time there are many people searching for Madeleine.

All of this is in the statements in the PJ files.

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