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When did Madeleine McCann really disappear?

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When did Madeleine disappear?

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Re: When did Madeleine McCann really disappear?

Post by Columbo on 09.02.16 17:57

Gosh, this forum moves fast :)

@Verdi, @TonyBennett, @pennylane

Thank you for your responses. If I could summarise, probably too broadly, there seem to be roughly four different camps in the forum with regard to the timing of MBM's demise:

Group One - something happened in the late afternoon/evening of 3 May

Group Two - something happened late evening/overnight on 2 May

Group Three - something happened after the arrival in PdL, but before the above two points

Group Four - MBM wasn't ever in PdL in the first place, though a substitute may have been

Then there are some groupings around the unplanned or pre-planned nature of what happened:

Group A - it was an unplanned event and a cover-up was hastily developed across 2 and/or 3 May

Group B - it was an unplanned event earlier in the week and a cover-up was developed over a few days, then an abduction simulated on 3 May (though perhaps not according to plan)

Group C - it was all pre-planned prior to travelling to PdL, but there were problems with the execution of the plan

For me, the pre-planning and "substitute MBM" ideas are too far-fetched. I respect those who believe it may have been a pre-ordained event but I'm afraid it doesn't work for me.

I tend most strongly towards an uplanned "disaster" late on 3 May. Exactly what I'm unsure, but if pushed I'd go for overdose as my first choice, a "clobbering" as my second and an accident/fall as my third. There is always the possibility of a combination, e.g. an accident followed by sedation.

Now, to make my favoured scenario fit MBM would be alive and well during the day of 3 May and engaged in 'normal' activities. So, it follows that if I could prove MBM was verifiably seen during 3 May I'd at least go some way towards that. I simply cannot do it with 100% veracity and I have to accept that. I do discount DP's visit. @Tony has done an excellent job with his list of contradictions but I lean towards thinking he did visit at about that time but something was clearly up and lies have been told.  Discounting that visit then, we are back to the High Tea. There are issues and discrepancies here too but I think it happened and I think MBM was there.

I do agree (who couldn't?) that there were strange goings-on all week, especially from Monday onwards. I can't, and don't, discount *something* happening earlier in the week. The urgent flight from Exeter and the GM/RM simultaneous phone activations are highly suspicious IMO. But, the thread title is "When did Madeleine McCann really disappear?" and for me it was on 3 May.

There's a lot of "noise" and "chaff" in this case and I try and keep it simple for my feeble brain, hence my working backwards approach from the evening of 3 May. There are also a lot of contradictions in the evidence and it usually feels like trying to make a picture with jigsaw pieces from several different boxes!

All just IMO and my "tuppence worth".
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Re: When did Madeleine McCann really disappear?

Post by Verdi on 09.02.16 22:42

@Verdi wrote:Sorry, don't know where all that junk's come from.  Useless me trying to recifiy, from experience it only makes matters worse.

howdy

I've tidied it up for you - Admin
I thankee kindly thumbup .  There's something of the OCD about me at times - can't abide shabby presentation.

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Re: When did Madeleine McCann really disappear?

Post by Verdi on 09.02.16 22:52

@Doug D wrote:Verdi (12.55):
‘Didn't they say they saw her running and waved?’ 
 
The picures posted by Pamalam are described as ‘CCTV pictures captur(ing) the 'Tapas Seven' at the Paraiso beach restaurant, in Praia da Luz, on 03 May 2007, between 17:31 and 18:36’.
 
Bewk p.66
‘Gerry and I had booked an hour long couples’ tennis lesson……at three-thirty and as the courts were unoccupied , we decided to have a knock-up for half an hour first. Near the end of our lesson…………(so about 4.20?)….another guest appeared and he and Gerry decided to have a game together……..
..I opted to go for a run along the beach, where I spotted the rest of our holiday group. They saw me and shouted some words of encouragement. At least, I think that’s what they were shouting…………
…I wasn’t to know at that stage that in fact they had only just arrived when I ran by……..
I had finished my run by five-thirty at the Tapas area’
 
From the initial statements:
 
Jane Tanner:
'At about 15h45 she went to the beach with Rachael, Dianne, Fiona, L*** and S****** Payne, taking her daughter E**e along.
 
Around 17h15 she saw Kate Healy pass the beach (7) "jogging", she having waved.'
 
Fiona Payne:
'they went to the beach with the children and her mother Dianne. They arrived there around 15h45 and left at 18h15, and headed towards the tennis court until about 19h00.'
 
Diane Webster:
'she went to the beach with the children, her son-in-law and her daughter. They arrived there at around 15h45 and left at around 18h15'


 
So they all say beach at about 15.45 and JT is the only one who mentions KM jogging past at about 17.15 (which is hardly ‘only just arrived’).
Shouldn’t have been too difficult for the PJ to corroborate this time on the rest of the CCTV film, which we don’t have.
 
On these stills we also get ‘MUX 4’, top left hand side, (Mix 4). I wonder whether that means there were at least another three CCTV cameras at the Paraiso?
'The book' (affectionately known as exhibit A) has always appeared to me to be that 'innocent explanation for anything the police may or may not find', with a huge dollop of romanticism for effect.

So once again we have a glaring example of contradiction - still as the man himself said 'confusion is good' (or words to that effect).

ETA:  The Tannerwoman features very prominently throughout this saga doesn't she?

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