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My Theory

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My Theory

Post by G-Unit on 10.04.15 16:52

@cyaneyed wrote:Great reply G-Unit, thank you. Which gap is anyone's guess and I don't pretend to answer it, aside from knowing it happened within 45 minutes (within this theory).

Carpenter left around 2110, he could have seen a car arrive/leave/in drive/waiting in that car park and thought nothing of it at the time.

It's interesting Gerry mentioning that fact ex post facto, especially considering the route had been blamed on 'refuse'. Reminds me of the playing cards comment in the arguido interview.

@Jeanmonroe You have quite the imagination :)
Please note also that the curtains were open. it is only later that Kate McCann said they were closed. 

The sniffer dogs were following Madeleine's scent, suposedly. She didn't go left out of the front door though according to your theory. 

If the twins were sedated as seems possible it is unlikely to have been chloroform. It tends to make people sick, and it doesn't have an immediate effect. To sedate two children would have taken at least ten minutes and the first one would have been wakening and feeling sick before the second one was under.

It takes at least five minutes of inhaling an item soaked in chloroform to render a person unconscious. Most criminal cases involving chloroform also involve another drug being co-administered, such as alcohol or diazepam, or the victim being found to have been complicit in its administration. After a person has lost consciousness due to chloroform inhalation, a continuous volume must be administered and the chin must be supported in order to keep the tongue from obstructing the airway, a difficult procedure even for ananesthesiologist.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chloroform#Criminal_use
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Re: My Theory

Post by lj on 10.04.15 17:10

@cyaneyed wrote:Maybe if you try typing like a normal human, without your attempt at being clever with quote marks and capitals, and I will know what you're actually getting at, other than bizarrely implying that I am Kate (oops, 'Kate')?


I suggest we appoint Jean (jeanmonroe) our litmus test for trolls.
Please Jean keep on posting with a lot os quote marks and capitals. It's really works every time!

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Re: My Theory

Post by comperedna on 10.04.15 17:22

Re G-units post. Also... chloroform has an intense sweet stink that takes ages to dissipate... once smelled never forgotten.

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My Theory

Post by G-Unit on 10.04.15 17:42

Anyone discussing sedation has to look at the adults who knew them and had access to them in my opinion. The children went to bed like a dream five nights in a row. When the Mccanns moved to their villa later the twins were difficult to get to sleep. Sometimes it was 9pm and they were still awake. If Kate McCann and Fiona Payne suspected sedation of some kind their reaction may have amounted to clinical neglect. A doctor placing their fingers under a child's nose to check breathing is not an acceptable response to suspected sedation, is it? The only way this is explainable is if one or both of them knew what the sedation consisted of and what the dosage was in my opinion. Even then, surely the children should have been roused and checked out if there were any doubts?
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Re: My Theory

Post by cyaneyed on 10.04.15 17:45

Thank you G-Unit, another great post (and useful followup comment from comperedna).

What I was assuming is that Madeleine's scent would be on the first perpetrator, and disappear once they reached the car, either because they removed an item of clothing, or because they drove off. Driving off seems more likely to me. I assume alibi would be the only reason for coming back, if they (or one) did.

Calpol does seem more likely for the twins, perhaps Maddie too with a slightly bigger dose, though I don't think they would've over-administered. I always had the 'Hollywood' image of chloroform, so I appreciate the information. 

Incidentally as a parent I had never heard of using Calpol for this purpose in the past. I've only ever associated it with sickness. You raise very important points about the twins. They were only moved at the request of the police, even left to sleep in the crime scene while melee went on outside the bedroom. I don't think I have read anything about attempts to rouse them.
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My Theory

Post by G-Unit on 10.04.15 17:53

Only people who knew the children well could have administered oral sedation, unless it was done in their food or drink at tea time. Possibly Kate McCann was suggesting this with her mention of Madeleine's tiredness. If so, and she was not involved, would she not have made more effort to make sure the twins were OK later?
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Re: My Theory

Post by cyaneyed on 10.04.15 18:01

I agree, but if you make the assumption that she was involved then surely checking on them and overemphasising their safety would be imperative as part of an 'act'. It's one of those things that will just never make sense until we know the truth.
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Re: My Theory

Post by plebgate on 10.04.15 18:14

JeanM  is deffo a card.   lol.

Wasn't there another poster banned a couple of weeks ago who objected to JeanM's "quotes".

I wonder why it seems to upset some posters so much?

Still waiting for an answer to JeanM's points from Cyaneyed simply saying she has an imagination is not good enough for me.

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Re: My Theory

Post by cyaneyed on 10.04.15 18:22

Which points? Saying that I am Kate? The 2130 quote?

I'm not sure how I have come across as a troll just by trying to go through a theory. My intention was never putting people's backs up hence the disclaimers in the first post...
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Re: My Theory

Post by plebgate on 10.04.15 18:24

Jean's points about the timeframe would be a start.   anyway, boooooorrrrreed now (doesn't take much).   If you are asking people to comment on a theory why make any disclaimers.   Have to view as a whole or nothing imo.  Bye bye.

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Re: My Theory

Post by cyaneyed on 10.04.15 18:27

Ok, ta-ta :)

ETA - It occurred to me jean may have something like dyslexia, in which case I apologise for my 'type like a human' comment. I thought the quotations were sarcasm and found the accusation of being Kate entirely bizarre (not least since I had mentioned my username elsewhere, my fb, my voice on the video etc...). It was not meant to be insensitive, if it came across as such.
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My Theory

Post by G-Unit on 10.04.15 19:16

@cyaneyed wrote:I agree, but if you make the assumption that she was involved then surely checking on them and overemphasising their safety would be imperative as part of an 'act'. It's one of those things that will just never make sense until we know the truth.
I'm not making any assumptions about sedation. It was Kate Mccann and Fiona Payne who seemed worried about the twins. I just pointed out that unless the children were sedated at tea time, then the only people who had access to them was the parents and their friends. An abductor couldn't orally sedate them. There was no need to act either, those children were well out of it apparently.
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Re: My Theory

Post by cyaneyed on 10.04.15 19:58

By assumptions I am just referring to hypothetical viewpoints, not trying to paraphrase you. Again you're entirely right, which is why I think it was probably Calpol before bed, if anything. It's not totally out of bounds in my theory though as I don't rule out anyone except the McCanns in it. There were potentially opportunities, depending on which account you believe (Payne grey area...)
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My Theory

Post by G-Unit on 10.04.15 20:16

I haven't ruled anyone out, I don't see how it's possible.
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Re: My Theory

Post by Guest on 10.04.15 20:20

@cyaneyed wrote:By assumptions I am just referring to hypothetical viewpoints, not trying to paraphrase you. Again you're entirely right, which is why I think it was probably Calpol before bed, if anything. It's not totally out of bounds in my theory though as I don't rule out anyone except the McCanns in it. There were potentially opportunities, depending on which account you believe (Payne grey area...)
Calpol is paracetamol, an analgesic, not a sedative.
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Re: My Theory

Post by cyaneyed on 10.04.15 22:17

Indeed. Before this case I had never heard of it either. I think it is reported as causing drowsiness because it's supposed to be given to children with fevers, it alleviates the symptoms, allows the body to relax a little, and naturally there is drowsiness. In other words, its not a direct effect of the Calpol, but of what Calpol alleviated. On a healthy child, there is no reason Calpol would cause drowsiness (from a little reading, I've discovered it's also bad for the liver if taken regularly).
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Re: My Theory

Post by Guest on 10.04.15 23:00

@cyaneyed wrote:Indeed. Before this case I had never heard of it either. I think it is reported as causing drowsiness because it's supposed to be given to children with fevers, it alleviates the symptoms, allows the body to relax a little, and naturally there is drowsiness. In other words, its not a direct effect of the Calpol, but of what Calpol alleviated. On a healthy child, there is no reason Calpol would cause drowsiness (from a little reading, I've discovered it's also bad for the liver if taken regularly).
Where is it reported that calpol causes drowsiness?   

Paracetamol does not cause drowsiness.
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Re: My Theory

Post by cockerspaniel on 10.04.15 23:10

@cyaneyed wrote:Hey guys,

This is my first post but I am not new to the case at all. I have what I feel is a working hypothesis for abduction which explains most of the discrepancies. I understand from reading around here that people are both very knowledgeable about the case (some far beyond my knowledge), and also that there are some strong ingrained opinions, which is natural after almost 8 years.

My theory does not implicate either of the McCanns and I don't name suspects, I want to be clear about that first of all. I don't want to get into debating the 'who'. What I want to ascertain is how far my 'how' is realistic.


I will also be up front in mentioning that the JT sighting is NOT incorporated whatsoever (though I acknowledge she was out of her seat), and I don't try to explain cadaver scent in the rental car. What I am looking at is the initial crime scene.

If this seems written in an odd manner it's because I wrote the bulk of it (sans bold additions) as a narrative for a video I made, which I will link at the end (I think in this forum reading is better, the video is rough and was recorded while I had a cold!).



The Theory


Let me begin by reasserting that this is a theory, but one which I believe fits snugly with the details we have. Any nouns I use do not refer to particular people. It's not my intention to suggest names, but simply to put my theory forward.

We start at 2030: The McCanns check their 3 children, then leave their apartment via the patio doors. Both the front and back doors are unlocked. The bedroom window is shut, with the outside shutter only slightly open to let in a small amount of light. They make their way to the Tapas Bar, where they meet Matt and Rachael Oldfield (5B), Jane Tanner and Russell O’Brien (apartment 5D). All of their companions are also ground floor flats. The Paynes (5H), a trio of adults (husband, wife, mother of wife) who are staying on the first floor, arrive around 2100. 

Matthew Oldfield goes to check on his children around 2100. He takes time to notice the state of the McCann shutters:

Matthew Rogatory Interview 09 April 2008
So I went and listened, I went, I found the time, because we'd only just been in there about fifteen minutes ago, and I just listened outside her shutters, so I just passed along that wall that goes to the two, sort of to the McCANN's apartment, so I listened outside our shutters and went along to their shutter and had a listen out there, not because I'd been asked to, but, or it's not the sort of thing you think about, it's just kind of, erm,".

 4078 "You thought you might as well?"

 Reply "So I thought I might as well and I can report back and they can be, you know, be reassured that everything was okay. And we talked a lot in the previous interviews about what state the shutters were in, whether they were, and they were all definitely down, there's three shutters, you know, there's, you know, two, and they're all at the same level, there was no, I would have noticed if they were, if one was up and the rest were down, it would have looked odd".

 4078 "What was the lighting like around that area at that time?"

 Reply "It's getting dusk, erm, by that time, but not completely dark, erm, it was not as dark as it got later on (inaudible) visibility".


And later (ibid)

Reply "Well it wasn't murky, I mean, you were close to the shutters, they're sort of white and they're lined, I think it'd be fairly obvious if there was a dark gap along the bottom, if they'd been raised particularly".

Not observing the shutters being slightly open, as mentioned by Gerry:

 
Witness statement of Gerald Patrick McCann, on the 10th of May 2007, at 3.20 p.m.
the children's bedroom was totally dark, with the window closed, but he does not know it was locked, the shutters closed but with some slats open, and the curtains also drawn closed. Asked, he mentions that during the night the artificial light coming in from the outside is very weak, therefore, without a light being lit in the living room or in the kitchen, the visibility inside the bedroom is much reduced


And then he
(Oldfield) returns. He is instantly put out by Gerry's reaction to his check:

But I remember Gerry specifically going because I thought, well I've just checked (inaudible) and then, you know, well I hadn't been in so I couldn't really check and, you know, they're his kids, it was quite right that, if that's what he wants.

Neither Gerry or Kate seem aware of Oldfield's check, possibly not hearing over the group chat.

As told by Gerry:
Witness statement of Gerald Patrick McCann, on the 10th of May 2007, at 3.20 p.m.
At around 21H00, MATHEW stood up from the table, saying that he was going to check on the children. Nevertheless, he did not say that he would go to check on the deponent’s children, and it was only after the disappearance of MADELEINE that he told him that at 21h00 the shutters of the children's bedroom window were closed. At 21H05, MATHEW returned, the time at which the deponent left the table to go check on his children.


Gerry goes to the apartment and makes his check between 2105 and 2115. He takes time as he uses the toilet and also speaks to Jeremy on his way back. Jane Tanner also gets up to check on her children, passing Gerry and Jeremy, although they do not notice her. Gerry returns to the meal before Jane. At 2125-2130 Matthew Oldfield goes to make checks, offering to check on the McCann children allowing Kate to keep chatting. Matthew enters through the patio doors, noticing the living room is lit by a small corner lamp (which is later switched off in PJ photos), he walks to the bedroom door but does not enter. He can see the twins in their cots, so the door must be open at least 45 degrees.

Matthew Rogatory Interview 09 April 2008
Now the room was, we talked also in the interviews about how light the room was and whether I could see the shutters, and I can't see the shutters because the curtains were shut and, they're similar curtains to the ones you've got in there, and you just get an impression of just like green and yellow, but they were closed, they weren't sort of blowing about, because I'm sure I'd have noticed if there was sort of movement like that. But the room seemed light, and we spent a lot of time talking about this, whether it could be light coming in from the street outside, but there was a light behind us in the room and for some reason I thought, I got the impression of light coming through the doorway from behind me, which is why I said that I thought perhaps the moon was out, erm, but there as no sort of, you know, it's a question of whether, there was no sort of slats of light coming through the back that particularly caught my eye. So I didn't specifically see the shutters and I couldn't say that they were definitely open, but certainly the curtains were shut and everything was quiet".


He can see the twins in their cots breathing but only the 'corner' of Maddie's bed. He thinks the room is oddly lit, specifically mentioning that he doesn't notice 'slats of light', but doesn't investigate further. He returns to the party. Russell had also got up when Michael does, and checks on his daughter, who is crying, so he stays, not returning to the party.

Between 2116 and 2145, Maddie was taken. The perpetrator entered through the patio doors, knowing that they were unlocked. Slipping into the bedroom, they found all the children asleep - Maddy lying on her side, barely inside her covers. The perpetrator walks to the window, opening the slats. This gives the perpetrator vision of the small car park out the window. A car is waiting, and he sees a thumbs up Critical thing here is that there was more than one abductor, and only Maddy needed to pass through the window. Silently, he now raises the shutter, ratcheting it up from the inside. The second perpetrator steps easily over the small dividing wall and waits (alternatively the car is parked with the door right next to the car park path entrance, stepping over the wall/flowerbed unnecessary).

Silently, the perpetrator opens the window with a gloved thumb, pushing the glass to the left. Now, he walks towards Madeleine, gently picking her up, and passing her to the second perpetrator, her small body passing silently through the divide. The perpetrator draws the curtains, deciding not to risk making more noise by closing the shutters and glass. The second perpetrator lays Maddy over the back seat, the girl not stirring at all.

Possible parents had used calpol to settle the children after recent disturbed nights where Sean was reported crying and Maddy asked 'where were you'. This is delicate information which I wouldn't expect to see disclosed, if at all. No drug tests were performed at the time. Alternatively the perpetrator could have used an agent like chloroform (it seems unlikely that the twins simply slept through everything, including the later melee).

The car then drives away and to the right (it is also possible the car was simply left in gear beside the road rather than inside the car park, although this appears less inconspicuous). The perpetrator now walks quietly towards the front door, knowing it to be unlocked (or that it can be traversed irrelevant of being locked from the inside, as attested by Kate, need confirmation of that), and calmly exits. He then takes the long route left, left again (technically three lefts) and then straight forward, so that he appears to be emerging from the poolside patio entrance alone, then walks with deliberacy past the Tapas reception, and crosses the road, either getting into the second perpetrator's waiting car, or dropping an item of clothing there before returning to the resort. Who was present in 5a after the alert? Did any of those people then go to the (then named) Batista supermarket? Possible Maddy's scent was on them. As the trail seemed to end at the car park, I assume the first perpetrator left, or at the very least deposited the coat/jacket/shirt that would have been in contact with Maddy when carrying her. It was the diagram of the sniffer dog trails, from May 4th and 8th, which made this click for me:



WHY would the perpetrator take the long route around the apartments, instead of simply getting into the car first? Simply, this was a person who
NEEDED to be seen walking alone, from the direction of the 'patio path'. I make no inference about who it could be, because and there are many possibilities. But by emerging from that place, at that time, they had a perfect alibi, guest, staff or other. Perhaps the car waiting was part of a normal routine, or belonged to a resident. The biggest misnomer has been the search for someone carrying a child. Maddy was only carried from the bed to the car, in the hands of two people, for a period of seconds. Whatever the case, the abductor did their part and then took that walk. A waiting car across from the reception of a resort is pretty incognito, and with Maddy asleep in the back, perhaps under blankets or perhaps incapacitated with a substance like chloroform, nothing would look out of the ordinary. Perhaps also in a child seat, although this would make her easy to spot

For instance, the words of Arlindo Epifanio Goncalves Fernandes Peleja, the executive chef of the Ocean Club:
When he arrived there, by vehicle, at around 21:10, he remembers that next to the Tapas reception, he saw a vehicle, dark blue in colour, with Portuguese license plates. Although he cannot be definite, he believes it was a Fiesta or Focus.....After parking his vehicle, he entered through the reception of that restaurant.....

And of Stephen Carpenter
who could be the key witness:
Between approximately a quarter past nine and half past nine we left the Tapas bar to go home.... When I crossed the road outside the MW reception I remember there were cars parked, I remember taking some time to see if I could cross the road because there were cars parked to my left and I was carrying I****. They were about six metres away from me and I calculate that some (inaudible) metres from the back of Gerry's apartment

The road was in frequent use, and a car was even waiting outside the reception around 2110. If the chef was just 6 minutes out with his time estimate
or if we accept some of the group got their timings out by minutes, the blue car could even have been the car Maddy was inside. Not only this, but the car would've almost certainly been waiting right near Gerry and Jeremy as they had their conversation. 

This theory potentially finally puts to bed the question of why the window was open, and proves that the original sniffer dogs were following more than just 'sacks of refuse', which was always an odd statement given that they followed the same trail 4 days apart. The theory asserts that the crime took place in the bedroom only, and all other assumed aberrations in the apartment were natural red herrings in a perplexing mystery. That the perpetrator shut the curtains shows that they wanted to buy time, and not wake/disturb the twins with the brighter light, bringing someone to the scene sooner.

Logically speaking, a simple line of investigation would be to find out which locals were conspicuous by their ABSENSE during searching.
Also close attention should be paid to the testimony of Carpenter (not disclosed with the PJ files).

And most chillingly, the contamination of the crime scene and flat before police arrived means that Maddy's abductor could've been in the same room as the grieving parents, playing along.

Video:

The video explains my interpretation of the window (initial statements of forced entry, jemmying etc), dna, locks and initial statements. I can paste the narrative of this part on request.

Thanks if you read this far and I look forward to hearing some feedback.
Hi Cyaneyed,

Its nice to see someone put a new theory on here, even if its one that is not going to be at all popular. Please ignore the snipers and continue to post as i believe this site is supposed to be here for anyone to post on and they should not be discouraged in my opinion.

Anyway, with regards to your theory, what do you make of the Mccs leaving the hire car boot open for days on end, im just not buying the rotting fish and nappies smell being that bad!! What are your thoughts on the "Fund" and the speed with which it was incorporated and how it has been used, GMc bus comment "im not here to effin enjoy myself", and lastly, do you think R Murat is in any way involved in this case??

To me, the main sticking point is if the parents did it with no outside help and no car, where was MBM hidden/disposed of, for over 3 weeks without her being found. Certainly not the beach !!  Personally I think they had and still have a lot of help from somewhere.

Anyway, I for one am glad to keep debating your theory with you.

Oh and by the way  welcome2

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Re: My Theory

Post by jeanmonroe on 11.04.15 0:31

@cyaneyed wrote:

ETA - It occurred to me jean may have something like dyslexia, in which case I apologise for my 'type like a human' comment.

I am 'NOT' dislectic, erm, dyslective um, dyslecexria thankyou very mutch! But dammit, why is 'dyslexia' so bloody hard to spell... for dyslexics?

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My Theory

Post by G-Unit on 11.04.15 8:15

@jeanmonroe wrote:
@cyaneyed wrote:

ETA - It occurred to me jean may have something like dyslexia, in which case I apologise for my 'type like a human' comment.

I am 'NOT' dislectic, erm, dyslective um, dyslecexria thankyou very mutch! But dammit, why is 'dyslexia' so bloody hard to spell... for dyslexics?
My baughter was slightly byslexic anb wrote like this. (b's and d's were her problem)
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Re: My Theory

Post by BlueBag on 11.04.15 9:02

@plebgate wrote:  Have to view as a whole or nothing imo.  
Precisely.
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My Theory

Post by G-Unit on 11.04.15 9:31

Ladyinred wrote:
@cyaneyed wrote:Indeed. Before this case I had never heard of it either. I think it is reported as causing drowsiness because it's supposed to be given to children with fevers, it alleviates the symptoms, allows the body to relax a little, and naturally there is drowsiness. In other words, its not a direct effect of the Calpol, but of what Calpol alleviated. On a healthy child, there is no reason Calpol would cause drowsiness (from a little reading, I've discovered it's also bad for the liver if taken regularly).
Where is it reported that calpol causes drowsiness?   

Paracetamol does not cause drowsiness.
Firstly, I agree with cockerspaniel. We're all entitled to an opinion even if it's not seen as supportable. I prefer to give someone the benefit of the doubt rather than see them go to another site where they're ideas will be welcomed and not critically analysed. 

I'm not saying anyone did anything, but the only medicine I have seen referred to which might fit the 'sedating' possibility is Terfenadine. Antihistamines have been used for sedation of children as well as of the terminally ill in the past;

When they travelled on holiday to Portugal they brought several medicines, namely Calpol, Nurofen, for fevers and pains, both for adults and children, Losec for gastric problems that he occasionally suffers from, and an anti-histamine called Terfenadine for hay fever. He did not give any of these medicines or any others to the children while on holiday in Portugal.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/GERRY-MCCANN-ARGUIDO.htm
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Re: My Theory

Post by Guest on 11.04.15 9:56

Yes, G-Unit, we're all entitled to an opinion and to voice them, within the rules, on this forum.  I've not denied anyone their opinion and am always interested to read new theories.  So I don't understand why you've linked my post above with yours.

I'm pointing out that calpol is an analgesic not a sedative.
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Re: My Theory

Post by Dr What on 11.04.15 11:17

This 'theory' which starts from the position that the McCanns are 'not implicated' seems to be more of a wish list than anything else.
Parents are the natural starting point in any investigation.These parents have not been eliminated at all.In fact, the only completed and published report into the disappearance of this girl, implicates these parents right up to their necks.
To date, they have avoided any need to answer any questions under oath in a Court of law.Until that time, they are subject to the Court of public opinion which has hardened against them as the details of this case are read by more and more people.

The McCanns have chosen to 'defend' themselves behind a barricade of legal help.This course of action has been a curse to them and will ultimately fail.

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Re: My Theory

Post by jeanmonroe on 11.04.15 11:24

Me being pedantic, 'probably', but the following paragraph is 'included' in your OP, cyaneyed.

"He can see the twins in their cots breathing but only the 'corner' of Maddie's bed. He thinks the room is oddly lit, specifically mentioning that he doesn't notice 'slats of light', but doesn't investigate further. He returns to the party. Russell had also got up when Michael does, and checks on his daughter, who is crying, so he stays, not returning to the party."

Would you 'care' to 'tell' us, by 'us' i mean people who have read, in their entirety, all of the 'files, statements' publicly available, who you actually 'think'....... MICHAEL, is?

Just to add: Your use of 'inverted' commas, in the YOUR above 'paragraph', is bloody annoying!

"STOP IT!" laughat

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