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Post by PeterMac 13.11.14 17:04

Keep your eye on the squirrel

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Post by Joss 13.11.14 17:10

Smokeandmirrors wrote:Joss thanks for posting up the info about the metadata. It says the picture was created on the 3rd but modified on the 24th. Could this mean the creation date could have been modified?
You're welcome. In reply to your question it could be modified but i don't really know for sure. I am not very photography knowledgeable, but maybe someone else that is could answer the question a bit better?
The info. is from the link i just posted earlier, the Mccannfiles.
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Post by rustyjames 13.11.14 17:16

Smokeandmirrors wrote:Joss thanks for posting up the info about the metadata. It says the picture was created on the 3rd but modified on the 24th. Could this mean the creation date could have been modified?

Unfortunately we don't have the original picture before anything could have been changed in the data.

The 24th was the day the photo was released to the public, and the only version I'm aware of we have with exif data is the AFP agency version, so anything could have changed from the original data.  The exif data is already a mix of that from the camera and from the agency - they appear to have used photoshop to add in the caption and copyright information.  The caption starts with "CORRECTING SOURCE IN IPCT" - I suspect this is a misspelling of IPTC "The International Press Telecommunications Council" and is a standard for tagging press photos with information.
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Post by PeterMac 13.11.14 17:18

rustyjames wrote:Yes good summary PeterMac.
Just one minor thing - I posted the other day that the video you posted earlier in this thread was possibly the wrong link as it was of Day 4 and I believe May 3rd was Day 3 of the competition.  Day 4 looks a lot nicer.
There is some confusion about this. The write up gives this

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

There is probably a difference between the "official version' with day 1 being the day of arrival, briefing etc
and day 1 of racing, which is possibly the next day.
Needs more work either way.
But is does show serious wind in the early afternoon. Those windsails are belting along, and bystanders are wearing fleeces.
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Post by rustyjames 13.11.14 17:21

This link gives a nicer presentation of all the info in the photo: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
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Post by PeterMac 13.11.14 17:23

Joss wrote:
Smokeandmirrors wrote:Joss thanks for posting up the info about the metadata. It says the picture was created on the 3rd but modified on the 24th. Could this mean the creation date could have been modified?
You're welcome. In reply to your question it could be modified but i don't really know for sure. I am not very photography knowledgeable, but maybe someone else that is could answer the question a bit better?
The info. is from the link i just posted earlier, the Mccannfiles.

Yes, it can.
google is, or have a quick look at
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] How to Edit Exif Data in Photographs
Why would anyone want to modify the Exif data of photographs? Well, there can be several genuine reasons.
For instance, the internal date of your camera was incorrect and therefore all the pictures were captured with a wrong timestamp.

EXIF Date Changer 3.0.1.2
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Post by rustyjames 13.11.14 17:24

PeterMac wrote:
SNIP

There is probably a difference between the "official version' with day 1 being the day of arrival, briefing etc
and day 1 of racing, which is possibly the next day.
Needs more work either way.
But is does show serious wind in the early afternoon.  Those windsails are belting along, and bystanders are wearing fleeces.

The schedule seems to be clearer on the main page for the competition - [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
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Post by Joss 13.11.14 17:26

PeterMac wrote:
Joss wrote:
Smokeandmirrors wrote:Joss thanks for posting up the info about the metadata. It says the picture was created on the 3rd but modified on the 24th. Could this mean the creation date could have been modified?
You're welcome. In reply to your question it could be modified but i don't really know for sure. I am not very photography knowledgeable, but maybe someone else that is could answer the question a bit better?
The info. is from the link i just posted earlier, the Mccannfiles.

Yes, it can.
google is, or have a quick look at
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] How to Edit Exif Data in Photographs
Why would anyone want to modify the Exif data of photographs? Well, there can be several genuine reasons.
For instance, the internal date of your camera was incorrect and therefore all the pictures were captured with a wrong timestamp.

EXIF Date Changer 3.0.1.2
Thankyou for the reply & the links.
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Post by Nereid 13.11.14 18:34

Weather during the Portimão Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix 2007:


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DAY 1

Press Release 6, Portimão, 01.05.07

The Portimão Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix had a perfect start today: 10 to 17 knots of sideshore wind transformed Praia do Alvor into a perfect formula Arena. In the best possible conditions, the maximum of four races was run by Claudio Alessandrello, the race director from Italy. The current Formula Windsurfing Worldchampion Steve Allen (AUS-0, Tabou, Gaastra) from Australia fully dominated the day and won all four races. After day one, he is leading the regatta with the optimum score of 3,00 points.

.....

As the racers achieved the maximum of the allowed four races today and once the forecast for the next days is again excellent, the race director decided to give the racers some time to recover. Therefore, for tomorrow the Skippers Meeting is set for 12:00 with the first possible start at 13:00. The forecasts predict even stronger wind than today, so the spectators at Praia do Alvor can again expect a great Formula Windsurfing show. The Portimão Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix will last until Saturday, May 5th

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DAY 2

Press Release 7, Portimão, 02.05.07

Portimao continues to provide perfect conditions for the competitors at the Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix at Alvor beach. With 14 to 22 knots the wind was even a little bit stronger then on the opening day. Together with waves up to 2 metres and a strong shorebreak this really pushed the racers to the limit.

......

The conditions in Portimao seem to be too good this year! The organization is facing an unusual luxury problem as they have to distribute the allowed 15 races over the five competition days. The forecast for the next days is excellent. Therefore for tomorrow the Skippers Meeting is again set for 12:00 with the first possible start at 13:00. The spectators at Alvor beach can again expect a great Formula Windsurfing show. The Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix Portimao will last until Saturday, May 5th.


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DAY 3


Press Release 8, Portimão, 03.05.07

The third day of the Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix Portimao, sponsorized event by the Municipal Council of Portimão and ExpoArade, EM, brought again great Formula Racing action to the beach of Alvor. Today the wind was a little bit lighter with 10 to 18 knots. Together with the bright sunshine this enabled the racers to enjoy a perfect competition day. Another three races were run under the supervision of the race director Claudio Alessandrello from Italy.
........

For tomorrow the forecasts predict again stronger wind of 20 knots and more. Three more races are planned. The Skippers Meeting is set for 12:00 with the first possible start at 13:00. The spectators at Alvor beach can again expect a great Formula Windsurfing show. The Portimão Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix will last until Saturday, May 5th.


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_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Seems the 1st and 3rd May were the least windy.
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Post by Guest 13.11.14 19:52

rustyjames wrote:
PeterMac wrote:
SNIP

There is probably a difference between the "official version' with day 1 being the day of arrival, briefing etc
and day 1 of racing, which is possibly the next day.
Needs more work either way.
But is does show serious wind in the early afternoon.  Those windsails are belting along, and bystanders are wearing fleeces.

The schedule seems to be clearer on the main page for the competition - [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
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Windy, cloudy over land, clear in the south, intermittent sunshine.

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Not exactly cracking the flags as they say.
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Post by Guest 13.11.14 19:57

May 3rd.

Baking.
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Post by Nereid 13.11.14 20:15

BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.

Doesn't mean anything unless you know what time it was taken.
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Post by Guest 13.11.14 20:17

Nereid wrote:
BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.

Doesn't mean anything unless you know what time it was taken.
It was taken on the 3rd of May.
So was the other one.
And all the others for 3rd of May in the link.

We can play "spot the fleece" if you like.

It's a bit easy though.
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Post by Nereid 13.11.14 20:28

BlueBag wrote:
Nereid wrote:
BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.

Doesn't mean anything unless you know what time it was taken.
It was taken on the 3rd of May.
So was the other one.
And all the others for 3rd of May in the link.

We can play "spot the fleece" if you like.

It's a bit easy though.

Could be in the morning of the 3rd of May. Weather is so changeable.

"The third day of the Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix Portimao, sponsorized event by the Municipal Council of Portimão and ExpoArade, EM, brought again great Formula Racing action to the beach of Alvor. Today the wind was a little bit lighter with 10 to 18 knots. Together with the bright sunshine this enabled the racers to enjoy a perfect competition day. "

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Must have been bright and sunny in the afternoon as possible start times were 13.00 on all those days.


Meanwhile a bit closer to Praia da Luz, at 12.53:

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Post by Mr Peabody 13.11.14 20:29

BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.
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Clearly photo shopped to add both people /jeans/ fleeces  big grin
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Post by Mr Peabody 13.11.14 20:31

Nereid wrote:
BlueBag wrote:
Nereid wrote:
BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.

Doesn't mean anything unless you know what time it was taken.
It was taken on the 3rd of May.
So was the other one.
And all the others for 3rd of May in the link.

We can play "spot the fleece" if you like.

It's a bit easy though.

Could be in the morning of the 3rd of May. Weather is so changeable.

"The third day of the Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix Portimao, sponsorized event by the Municipal Council of Portimão and ExpoArade, EM, brought again great Formula Racing action to the beach of Alvor. Today the wind was a little bit lighter with 10 to 18 knots. Together with the bright sunshine this enabled the racers to enjoy a perfect competition day. "

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Must have been bright and sunny in the afternoon as possible start times were 13.00 on all those days.


Meanwhile a bit closer to Praia da Luz, at 12.53:

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Must have been cold even the penguins were out!
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Post by Smokeandmirrors 13.11.14 20:32

And there is even a chap in a woolly hat, clearly a scorcher that dat

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Post by Guest 13.11.14 20:33

Nereid wrote:
BlueBag wrote:
Nereid wrote:
BlueBag wrote:May 3rd.

Baking.

Doesn't mean anything unless you know what time it was taken.
It was taken on the 3rd of May.
So was the other one.
And all the others for 3rd of May in the link.

We can play "spot the fleece" if you like.

It's a bit easy though.

Could be in the morning of the 3rd of May. Weather is so changeable.

"The third day of the Formula Windsurfing Grand Prix Portimao, sponsorized event by the Municipal Council of Portimão and ExpoArade, EM, brought again great Formula Racing action to the beach of Alvor. Today the wind was a little bit lighter with 10 to 18 knots. Together with the bright sunshine this enabled the racers to enjoy a perfect competition day. "

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Must have been bright and sunny in the afternoon as possible start times were 13.00 on all those days.


Meanwhile a bit closer to Praia da Luz, at 12.53:

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We have no idea of the provenance of that one or the time (as previoously discussed).

How ever the windsurfing photos are kosher.

I would say 95% of the people in the photos are wearing fleeces except for the surfers.
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Post by Nereid 13.11.14 20:43

BlueBag wrote:
We have no idea of the provenance of that one or the time (as previoously discussed).

How ever the windsurfing photos are kosher.

I would say 95% of the people in the photos are wearing fleeces except for the surfers.

I'm sure they're kosher, but without timestamp it could be early morning, late morning, early afternoon.

I tend to believe the press release claiming it was sunny. Racing didn't start till 13.00 on the day. It might have warmed up by then. Some of the surfers opted for shorties instead of full wetsuits. 

And in all those pictures only 1 strand of hair out of place!
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Post by Nina 13.11.14 20:45

plebgate wrote:
PeterMac wrote:MID - TERM REVIEW

An attempt at a mid-term review of the discussions about the Last Photo


It is interesting how much debate, not to say anger and vituperation this subject raises.
Way beyond normal debate, argument, refutation, counter argument, introduction of new evidence,
No, something much more visceral is at play here, and one begins to believe that those who take one particular view realise how devastating it would be if the Last Photo were found to be not exactly right.

Let us sum up.

For the Last Photo to be evidence of Madeleine’s continued existence in good health at lunchtime on 3/5/7 every single aspect of it has to be absolutely right.  
If one thing can be shown to be wrong, then it is a Forgery - it tells a lie about itself, and can no longer be prayed in aid, or adduced as proof.

The time (accepting that it can vary by one hour) the date, the 3 people portrayed the location, the weather, their clothing, their positioning, the sunshine conditions, the wind, and all the EXIF, MUST be absolutely correct and beyond reproach and reasoned criticism.
But the more some begin to worry about individual aspects of the photo the more it seems others rush into the breach to defend it.

It is now being argued, apparently in all seriousness that the Weather reports from the local airport could be wrong.
That is then countered with video of a major windsurfing competition just down the coast, and the written reports from that event and from locals who keep such records.
But that is clearly not sufficient and we are then told that the photo was taken inland, whereas the video was on the coast.    This is of course true, but it is presented as if the difference of 400 m between sea and tennis court was especially significant.

We are then told that wind speed is taken with an Anemometer at 3m from the ground in an open area and that the frictional resistance of hedges, trees, buildings, shrubs, cars, and so on will effectively slow the apparent wind speed at human level.  This is correct, of course, but this argument is considerably reduced by noting that the wind from the SSW passes across a large area of open land, a car park, a road, a low wall and some thin and low vegetation, before passing round or through a chain link fence before hitting the three people full in the face, without ruffling Madeleine's fine hair, nor dislodging the children's sun hats

We are also asked to accept that the fact that the sun shone through for a few minutes on a day when the cover increased from 50% + to 75% plus, before clearing later in the evening, would be sufficient to vindicate the Photo.
But people dress for the average of the weather they anticuipate, and all three are dressed for a hot and sunny day, not one with thick clouds which lets the sun through for a few minutes from time to time.

The perspiration sheen, no more, on Gerry’s forehead was noted, but then in an extraordinary leap we are asked to believe that he had come directly from a tennis court, and for that reason would have been sweating.   Except that he is not sweating.  There is no sweat on his T shirt, either under the arms, nor in the characteristic stripe down the front below the chin.    If he had been sweating he would be likely to have showered and changed before lunch.     He is wearing ‘normal’ clothing for a hot day.  He is not wearing Tennis gear, and as a keen and semi-professional sportsman of many year’s standing, would be likely to adhere to a fairly rigid personal dress code when on court.   He has his feet in the pool, there is no sign of expensive tennis shoes
But strangely this explanation is totally independent of, and in fact contrary to anything the McCanns have told us about the sequence of events.

The alternative timings of 13:29 and 14:29 are also in direct contradiction to what is said in statements elsewhere,

And then we come to the strange timings
Why was this not used as the poster photo ?.  It is argued that the poster has to be full face with no hat.  To which one is forced to ask - Why?   The cropped pool photo is far more representative of a child than the much younger one presented from several months before.
Why was the photo not handed to the PJ.    The PJ ended up issuing the poster photo on their own official poster in the absence of any other or better image

And what is the significance of the sequence
20th   GM to UK to collect photos from the album
22nd  GM, PM (PR) return to PdL with Mitchell
23rd   photo sent to AFP
24th photo released to world

But then there is a further inadvertent spin off
The wind at lunchtime is recorded at Force 4 - stiff breeze.
Assuming we accept the argument that at ground level even across open land etc. it would have been less than that, then let us move to consideration of the wind at 10pm
By then it is Force 2/3 and has veered to WNW, at a slight angle to the road and the car park. The road is built up, gardens have trees and bushes, the car park was protected by high trees and thick bushes. The window to the children’s room was further partially protected by a wall, somewhat higher that the sill
The window opening is max. 1 m x 0.5 m   = 0.5 square metre
The door is 2 m x 0.75 m = 1.5 square metre
thus reducing the effective wind speed / pressure by two thirds.

For a gust to slam the door against the weight of an adult holding it, and for a second gust to whoosh full length curtains from where they are trapped between the bed and the wall, and against the wall and the wicker chair, would need a series of gusts of Force 7 +
The effect of this on the 40 square metres of the tarpaulin cover in the Tapas bar would have been “noticeable”, and at Faro airport the wind sheer caused by these extraordinary conditions would have been noted and pilots warned to take appropriate evasive action.
Even when the Tapas group made their rogatories and were specifically asked about the wind conditions, not one commented on this strange phenomenon.

Beyond a reasonable doubt ?  Not sure if an entire jury would agree
Balance of probabilities ?  Certainly arguable
Thank you.
Thank you from me too PeterMac. I have started to feel embarrassed because of my doubts so am no longer posting, but your post has made me feel less so, but I think I will still continue to just read.

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Post by Guest 13.11.14 20:47

Nereid wrote:I tend to believe the press release claiming it was sunny. Racing didn't start till 13.00 on the day.
Sunny all day? 

Obviously not.

Intermittent?

The people on the boats are still wearing fleeces.. after 13.00
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Post by Guest 13.11.14 20:49

Nereid wrote:And in all those pictures only 1 strand of hair out of place!
It's amazing they were able to surf at all.
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Post by Guest 13.11.14 20:59

Wrapped up nice.

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Post by Nereid 13.11.14 22:21

BlueBag wrote:
Nereid wrote:I tend to believe the press release claiming it was sunny. Racing didn't start till 13.00 on the day.
Sunny all day? 

Obviously not.

Intermittent?

The people on the boats are still wearing fleeces.. after 13.00

I don't think it was sunny all day. I would agree with intermittent. And I think that it might have warmed up gradually and burn the cloud cover partially away to let the sun through. But hey, that's what I think. Doesn't mean it's true.

The press release is about the conditions during racing times imo. And the races started after 13.00.

It can be rather chilly on a boat even though it's warmer onshore. I know from experience when we take the boat out on a sunny day in our t-shirts, once we're out at sea a bit, we often put our fleeces on. Granted this is in the UK. I have never been in Portugal so can't compare.
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Post by Guest 13.11.14 22:50

Someone mentioned on another thread that, although the weather wasn't brilliant that week, the family looked tanned by the end of it - on news reports etc.

Certainly don't look even vaguely tanned here on 'the sixth day of the holiday'. Not even a faint glow. They are all sporting English pallor, imo. First or second day in the warmer clime, imo:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] lunchtime on the 3rd.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]must've been an intense few hours of sunshine between then and the next morning...
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