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Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by nomendelta on 09.10.14 10:06

The whole thing is ludicrous if we add to this OG's identification of Tannerman. Because this man would have been walking around with a small girl in pink pj's at almost exactly the same time as a big bad abductor would have been walking around with Maddie. It is inescapable that Tannerman MUST have seen something IF Maddie was abducted as the McCann's claim. He was walking past the apartment at exactly the time that they claim Maddie was taken - even if he only saw a jemmied shutter...

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by Jamming on 09.10.14 10:33

This Window of Opportunity.... it's gonna have to be "jimmied" open for it to work
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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by HelenMeg on 09.10.14 10:49

@Jamming wrote:This Window of Opportunity.... it's gonna have to be "jimmied" open for it to work
Excellent observation - post of the day.... big grin

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by .Guest.. on 09.10.14 10:53

@HelenMeg wrote:
@Jamming wrote:This Window of Opportunity.... it's gonna have to be "jimmied" open for it to work
Excellent observation - post of the day....
Or "jammied"

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An attempt at a more visual interpretation to Jammie open the window

Post by PeterMac on 09.10.14 17:39

We have the two Stickerbook versions.  Let us try to put them into a sort of GANNT chart format.
8:45. pm
Matt returns 9.00-9.05 - listened at all - all shutters down
Jerry 9.10-9.15 in the room + all well  ? did he check
9.20/5 - Ella Jane checked 5D sees stranger & child
9.30 - Russ. Ella Matt check all 3
9.35 - Matt check see twins
9.50 - Russ returns
9.55 - Kate realised Madeleine
10pm - Alarm raised
 
Timeline 2 (as per sticker book above)
 
8.45pm. all assembled at poolside for food
9.00pm. Matt Oldfield listens at all 3 windows 5A, B, D ALL shutters down
9:15pm Gerry McCann looks at room A ? Door open to bedroom
9:20pm Jane Tanner checks 5D - [sees stranger walking carrying a child]
9.30 - 9.55pm Russell O'Brien in 5D. Poorly daughter
10:00pm. Alarm raised after Kate
 
Gerald

In each case a single point in time is given, but we must remember that
Tapas to side gate of 5A is One Minute
Side gate 5A to front door 5A is One Minute
Side Gate up stairs opening gate, baby gate, patio doors, putting on light etc  30 Seconds
Side gate to 5D one and half Minutes
And each of these must then be added both to the 'out' and 'back'
AND the time actually unlocking front doors, entering, seeing children, touching them, checking bedclothes, checking temperature under covers, giving them a little kiss,  (I am assuming most of them are normal parents here !)
So the yellow box is the time given, the brown boxes are the bits either side, during much of which time
the person involved will have been outside, crossing the car park, walking along the road, and passing 5A

Stickerbook Version 1
" />

Stickerbook version 2
" />

Stickerbook1 does leave a 9 minute gap, but this is neatly plugged in Stickerbook2, when it is observed that ROB remains in the apartment. He is in 5D, only two thin walls away from 5A, and it is a cold calm and quiet night. It is noticeable that Stickerbook2 does not mention MO's alleged check of 5A, and that has been discussed at length elsewhere.

But then we come to the typed Sequence of events, agreed to by the entire group, and served on the PJ by the Liaison officer.
It runs to three A4 pages but the essence is shown below.  (As usual I would welcome any observations and corrections.)

" />


Suddenly we see a Window having been created, since was are now told that ROB came back to the restaurant at 2145, rather than at 2150, or 2155 according to Stickerbook1 & 2.

IF it had been known at the time that Tannerman was irrelevant and was just going to impede the search for three or four years, THEN one might see why this Window had suddenly been created, but it wasn't, and there was therefore no reason to do it.

Questions
Which of the three versions of the Truth are the McCanns and / or Grange relying on ?
Which of these versions are the ardent Pro-McCann supporters relying on, and why that one ?
Why that one, and what is wrong with the other ones ?

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by BlueBag on 09.10.14 17:52

Gannt charts.

Now we're talking.

All a bit silly isn't it.

What abductor would take such a risk?
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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by PeterMac on 09.10.14 18:02

@BlueBag wrote:
What abductor would take such a risk?
exactly.
However many "Notes" he had been taking, the behaviour that night was, on the McCanns own testimony, different from that of every previous night.
So Kate's ludicrous statement that he had been "watching them" and "taking notes" would not have assisted him.
Similarly he was not to know which of the children would be on vomit or diarrhoea duty that night.
What he would have seen is people coming and going on a very frequent but completely irregular basis.
It makes no sense, and we are surely entitled to form opinions based on the available evidence,
and to 'purport the theory' that the entire thing is hogwash, designed to cover up something else.

Nip up the outside stairs to nick a camera left on the outside table - perhaps.
But to go in, sedate three children and take one of them away ?

Even the McCanns must know this is ludicrous.

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by BlueBag on 09.10.14 18:11

@PeterMac wrote:Similarly he was not to know which of the children would be on vomit or diarrhoea duty that night.
Or who was playing football on the telly or who was walking the streets with a pushchair trying to get their child to sleep.
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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by BlueBag on 09.10.14 18:15

@BlueBag wrote:
@PeterMac wrote:Similarly he was not to know which of the children would be on vomit or diarrhoea duty that night.
Or who was playing football on the telly or who was walking the streets with a pushchair trying to get their child to sleep.

OR... who was on the upper balcony sipping a cocktail.
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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by PeterMac on 09.10.14 18:28

@BlueBag wrote:
@BlueBag wrote:
@PeterMac wrote:Similarly he was not to know which of the children would be on vomit or diarrhoea duty that night.
Or who was playing football on the telly or who was walking the streets with a pushchair trying to get their child to sleep.
OR... who was on the upper balcony sipping a cocktail.
Or . . . which route the local police officer might take that evening
Or . . . which burglar was also hoping for 5 UK passports
Or . . . which tractor driver was plotting revenge for being sacked two years before


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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by BlueBag on 09.10.14 18:53

@PeterMac wrote:
@BlueBag wrote:
@BlueBag wrote:
@PeterMac wrote:Similarly he was not to know which of the children would be on vomit or diarrhoea duty that night.
Or who was playing football on the telly or who was walking the streets with a pushchair trying to get their child to sleep.
OR... who was on the upper balcony sipping a cocktail.
Or . . . which route the local police officer might take that evening
Or . . . which burglar was also hoping for 5 UK passports
Or . . .  which tractor driver was plotting revenge for being sacked two years before


A Ninja... I'm telling you...
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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by Dr What on 09.10.14 19:36

And the McCanns wonder why they are ridiculed and loathed in their own village.

They are the architects of this nonsense.They have created this backlash.

People can smell a rat when it is put under their noses.I don't really think that you are surprised by the public reaction, are you?

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by BlueBag on 09.10.14 20:52

Just sent this thread to all the media who think we are "haters".

Cold reasoning will win the day.
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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by plebgate on 09.10.14 21:01

Excellent posts PeterM and well done Bluebag for sending his excellent posts to the media. clapping

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by Okeydokey on 09.10.14 21:11

@PeterMac wrote:We have the two Stickerbook versions.  Let us try to put them into a sort of GANNT chart format.
8:45. pm
Matt returns 9.00-9.05 - listened at all - all shutters down
Jerry 9.10-9.15 in the room + all well  ? did he check
9.20/5 - Ella Jane checked 5D sees stranger & child
9.30 - Russ. Ella Matt check all 3
9.35 - Matt check see twins
9.50 - Russ returns
9.55 - Kate realised Madeleine
10pm - Alarm raised
 
Timeline 2 (as per sticker book above)
 
8.45pm. all assembled at poolside for food
9.00pm. Matt Oldfield listens at all 3 windows 5A, B, D ALL shutters down
9:15pm Gerry McCann looks at room A ? Door open to bedroom
9:20pm Jane Tanner checks 5D - [sees stranger walking carrying a child]
9.30 - 9.55pm Russell O'Brien in 5D. Poorly daughter
10:00pm. Alarm raised after Kate
 
Gerald

In each case a single point in time is given, but we must remember that
Tapas to side gate of 5A is One Minute
Side gate 5A to front door 5A is One Minute
Side Gate up stairs opening gate, baby gate, patio doors, putting on light etc  30 Seconds
Side gate to 5D one and half Minutes
And each of these must then be added both to the 'out' and 'back'
AND the time actually unlocking front doors, entering, seeing children, touching them, checking bedclothes, checking temperature under covers, giving them a little kiss,  (I am assuming most of them are normal parents here !)
So the yellow box is the time given, the brown boxes are the bits either side, during much of which time
the person involved will have been outside, crossing the car park, walking along the road, and passing 5A

Stickerbook Version 1
" />

Stickerbook version 2
" />

Stickerbook1 does leave a 9 minute gap, but this is neatly plugged in Stickerbook2, when it is observed that ROB remains in the apartment. He is in 5D, only two thin walls away from 5A, and it is a cold calm and quiet night. It is noticeable that Stickerbook2 does not mention MO's alleged check of 5A, and that has been discussed at length elsewhere.

But then we come to the typed Sequence of events, agreed to by the entire group, and served on the PJ by the Liaison officer.
It runs to three A4 pages but the essence is shown below.  (As usual I would welcome any observations and corrections.)

" />


Suddenly we see a Window having been created, since was are now told that ROB came back to the restaurant at 2145, rather than at 2150, or 2155 according to Stickerbook1 & 2.

IF it had been known at the time that Tannerman was irrelevant and was just going to impede the search for three or four years, THEN one might see why this Window had suddenly been created, but it wasn't, and there was therefore no reason to do it.

Questions
Which of the three versions of the Truth are the McCanns and / or Grange relying on ?
Which of these versions are the ardent Pro-McCann supporters relying on, and why that one ?
Why that one, and what is wrong with the other ones ?

Excellent analysis! Really helps to see it in tabular/graphic form.

Have you done this for the rest of the holiday? It would be a task and a half but v. useful.





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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by AndyB on 09.10.14 22:02

@BlueBag wrote:Just sent this thread to all the media who think we are "haters".
What on earth makes you think this? The media couldn't give a monkey's about it beyond seeing an opportunity to shut down any sort of comment on the internet in a last desperate attempt to prevent their demise.

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by PeterMac on 09.10.14 22:27

@Okeydokey wrote: Excellent analysis!  Really helps to see it in tabular/graphic form.
Grange have access to HOLMES II and to ANACAPA, which will have produced this sort of analysis within a few hours - YES I mean a few HOURS - of their starting the investigation.
HOLMES II sorts out the differences between and among statements (LIES, in Police parlance)
ANACAPA produces time charts and diagrams to show whatever you ask it to.

Grange KNOW that this is a heap of ordure. The only problem is whether they are independent of someone else.
(Like the McCann / Brunt / Sky assassination squad ? JOKE C-R !)

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by aiyoyo on 10.10.14 2:24

@PeterMac wrote:
@BlueBag wrote:
@BlueBag wrote:
@PeterMac wrote:Similarly he was not to know which of the children would be on vomit or diarrhoea duty that night.
Or who was playing football on the telly or who was walking the streets with a pushchair trying to get their child to sleep.
OR... who was on the upper balcony sipping a cocktail.
Or . . . which route the local police officer might take that evening
Or . . . which burglar was also hoping for 5 UK passports
Or . . .  which tractor driver was plotting revenge for being sacked two years before


Incidentally, shown on Police photo, only 4 passports were on the table?

Whose was missing ? Why was it not needed?

Dead give away or what ?
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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by tigger on 10.10.14 6:14

@aiyoyo wrote:
@PeterMac wrote:
@BlueBag wrote:
@BlueBag wrote:
@PeterMac wrote:Similarly he was not to know which of the children would be on vomit or diarrhoea duty that night.
Or who was playing football on the telly or who was walking the streets with a pushchair trying to get their child to sleep.
OR... who was on the upper balcony sipping a cocktail.
Or . . . which route the local police officer might take that evening
Or . . . which burglar was also hoping for 5 UK passports
Or . . .  which tractor driver was plotting revenge for being sacked two years before


Incidentally, shown on Police photo, only 4 passports were on the table?

Whose was missing ? Why was it not needed?

Dead give away or what ?


I think in the GNR reports it states they were given Maddie's passport almost the moment they arrived, together with a photograph. 

ROB mentions having the photographs printed and given to the GNR 'well before the PJ arrived' . 
ROB's movements that evening, both before and after zero hour (10 pm) don't add up. 
Tierney states she printed the photographs around midnight. 
ROB says he gave  them to the GNR before 11 pm. Silvia Battista confirms the handing over of the passport iirc. 
Photographs of 5a must have been taken afterwards. 

A reconstruction would have been worth watching if they'd all stuck to their individual stories. 

GNR arrived ca 11.00,  PJ ca. 12.00

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by PeterMac on 10.10.14 8:24

@tigger wrote:
Tierney states she printed the photographs around midnight. 
ROB says he gave  them to the GNR before 11 pm. Silvia Battista confirms the handing over of the passport iirc. 
Photographs of 5a must have been taken afterwards. 
A reconstruction would have been worth watching if they'd all stuck to their individual stories. 
GNR arrived ca 11.00,  PJ ca. 12.00

2 bits in bold.
So Tierney had "The camera' around midnight
The family were chucked out into another apartment
Photos of 5A were then taken
and the OTHER camera was still on the dining table.

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by .Guest.. on 10.10.14 8:31

@PeterMac wrote:
@tigger wrote:
Tierney states she printed the photographs around midnight. 
ROB says he gave  them to the GNR before 11 pm. Silvia Battista confirms the handing over of the passport iirc. 
Photographs of 5a must have been taken afterwards. 
A reconstruction would have been worth watching if they'd all stuck to their individual stories. 
GNR arrived ca 11.00,  PJ ca. 12.00

2 bits in bold.
So Tierney had "The camera' around midnight
The family were chucked out into another apartment
Photos of 5A were then taken
and the OTHER camera was still on the dining table.

Did I not read that the poster photo printed by AT was from a memory stick? So I suppose the camera could still have been on the table or the stick/card was not from that camera at all. Sorry I am a bit of a technophobe when it comes to gadgets so you are more likely to be correct than me.

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by Naz_Nomad on 10.10.14 15:45

Having seen the Gannt charts, and being told that the Police use HOLMES to build a timeline in a crime, how can experienced detectives in Operation Grange operate in such a state of Cognitive Dissonance?  Just what the hell is going on here?  A ridiculously short window of opportunity to enter an apartment, sedate three children, and remove the oldest and biggest, all the while people are randomly roaming around outside, and entering apartments.  How can people still believe this BS?

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by onehand on 10.10.14 18:25

They have to because they had no different option to go at.
I do not consider operation grange any longer as a unique brittish investigation. They only had been given an mandate to investigate the abduction hypothesis by the portuguese .
That means the parents could never be suspects, just because legally they could not be. It is technically impossible for parents with full custody over a child to abduct a child.
 
Only if one of the parents make an accusation to the other parent, that he or she had abduct a child it could.
 
If you think in everything that is coming out of grange, as ‘in the light of an abduction’, it make far more sense.
 
The slips of sir b., not could communicate to the press and the people as normally, it is not thinkable portugal could tell the brittish what they could say or not say in a true brittish investigation, the parents are no suspects or persons of interest, the e-fits of smithman.
 
The only onion to peel back is abduction, not any other point or hypothesis . So even if they did see information from their research in the case, they can’t work it out. The only can handle it to the portuguese, because it is outside the remit and mandate of og.
 
All that was done on the timeline was creating room for an abduction, there was just to little possible to leave room for a tannerman, that would have discredited the t9 to much, so it was focus on smithman. Smithman don’t have to be a person at all, he is only important as the last not known man in the hypothetical abduction.
 
Matt’s testimony is offered, but also the witnesses like the carpenters, the chef of the kitchen, the people in the penthouse, and there where others too, who did not see anybody at all on the street around 5a, between 21.00 and 22.00 hours. Et voila, there is the abduction gap!
 
All we did for to long is believing in a smokescreen, an impression that operation grange could and would look into the disappearance of madeleine mccann, they don’t.
The remit is only to look into an abduction. If redwood states he want to find the people who did it, he means just an abductor. The parents are not in his task until the portuguese would let the brittish give the permission to take over the case.
 
The reviewing stage was different, a review is not an investigation at all, it won’t come with competences, under a review you can’t bring in people to ask questions, the only thing you could do is ask politely to talk to you. It has no further juridical consequences at all.
 
Yes, sir b. Was right, they did review maybe also the possible murder of madeleine mccann, but they did not investigate it or not beyond murder as a result of an abduction. That was what they did in the last searches in portugal.
 
As long the portuguese will claim territory on this case, there can’t be an unique brittish investigation or a brittish trail. That would be seen as harassment into the state affairs of portugal. All they do must be seen as in assisting the portuguese investigation. All they got was crumbs.
 
Only if you still believe in an abduction, operation grange is yours. It doesn't make out what 38 senior police officers of high quality think between themselves, they can’t simple work outside the remit and the mandate they got, that is just all there is.

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by palm tree on 10.10.14 18:29

@PeterMac wrote:
@tigger wrote:
Tierney states she printed the photographs around midnight. 
ROB says he gave  them to the GNR before 11 pm. Silvia Battista confirms the handing over of the passport iirc. 
Photographs of 5a must have been taken afterwards. 
A reconstruction would have been worth watching if they'd all stuck to their individual stories. 
GNR arrived ca 11.00,  PJ ca. 12.00

2 bits in bold.
So Tierney had "The camera' around midnight
The family were chucked out into another apartment
Photos of 5A were then taken
and the OTHER camera was still on the dining table.
And so is a, what I think, map, folded a certain way.
IMO

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Re: Back to basics - NEW Window of opportunity

Post by Lance De Boils on 11.10.14 16:36

I'd like to purport a theory. Just a theory.

Kate went to dinner on her own Thu night. Gerry was to follow on and join her there. He took a long time.
He hadn't returned to 5A at 9ish - he was only just leaving it to head for the tapas.

Please pull to pieces.
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