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Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

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Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by bobbin on 28.05.14 11:13

Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?
Something we haven't really covered in much depth.

As of the earliest reporting, did people, supporters, etc. enter the scene because they were 'unknowingly manipulated' or did they enter to 'spy' ?
Rather than think of Kate and Gerry as being part of an over-reaching "master plan", were they in fact a middling couple of 'incidental' catastrophes, an event, exclusive to themselves and their immediates, but which drew the other players in (for the short term).

Initially, Kate, pretty, blonde, hewn features, frail, captured people's goodwill.
I remember an email arriving from a distant aunt, out of the blue, with the one word in capital letters, but with no explanation, "PRAY".
I wondered if she had somehow got to know of something terrible that I had done wrong, and I was about to face retribution, with the one hope only that my salvation might be elicited if I prayed hard enough and convincingly enough.

Within hours, and well before people started to get wise to what a conniving pair the McCs really were, the catholic church was at its full-membership-swing, asking everyone they knew to Pray (as it turned out, not for 'my salvation' but that the little catholic girl who had been abducted from her bed and stolen from her wonderful catholic family, would be found.)

Initially, at their first appeal, many people were taken in. This poor, poor, couple, how could something so tragic befall such an innocent, pretty (Kate) and solid but shocked (Gerry)

Others of us thought, er, not so sure here, something a bit 'not kosher'.

So all and sundry turned up to help. Good honest citizens, putting every personal consideration aside, just went out and out to find this little girl.

Then some more sundries turned up by way of 'uncle phil', uncle john and old uncle tom cobbly and all, with their cozzies, to soak up the sun, wine and local hospitality (except for the two participants of the 'granny express' whose buck-shee holidays were cut short because they started to put the cat amongst the pigeons and suffer their respective offspring to answer some ludicrously un-useful questions).

So we can see how the 'manipulating' couple got the catholic church on side, the public, the media, simply because they looked, acted and played out the 'oh so vulnerable / hurt 'me' 'us' thing'.

Then the politicians got involved. Gordon Brown, Tony Bl**r, the Home Office, the ambassadors, etc. and within seconds damage control were in there, in every shape, form and size.

Why ?
Well, the vulnerable couple had called out the P word.

Alarm is set ringing in the ears of anyone who might have a 'fear' of something untoward being 'spilled' on the now reddening carpet laid out before the sanctified couple before 'they' put their feet forward to be photo shot, smiling for the cameras, tripping their way lightly over the pavement, unified by their little hands, innocent green and yellow (good quality) wristbands, sparkling in the sunshine of the fresh Portuguese spring.

But the 'normal' P word network, looking around in angst at their known (yet unknown) counterparts were almost voicing the words "who are these people?" Which faction do they belong to, haven't heard of them on the circuit, what do they know, what do they have on us, what's their agenda, what might they 'say'.

Best action, get the damage control guys down there A.S.A.P.
Get them covered, bring them in, find out what, who, when, how, where.
Start getting a Control on what goes out in the mdia, get a handle on this before it goes viral.

And so it snowballed.
Backfilling and emergency plasters/gags were applied in haste.
The flames of potentially explosive situations were dowsed as soon as they started to show signs of 'glowing'.

Gaps appeared in narratives, weak links started to strain at the integrity and bonding strength of the whole chain.

Thorns in the flesh required a daily ritualistic session of applying the right sized tweezers and enough 'grip' to get thorns removed.
You can smell the panic. Gonçalo Amaral, that Portuguese plod is getting too close. Move him out.
What ! he's writing a book, diss him, papers, media, twist some crime records, dig out what you can, dig something, anything out, even if you can't find anything, just make it stick.

Back to 'manipulators'. They are as slippery as eels but more so.

I sometimes wonder if what we are looking at, is not so much a 'previously contrived, all out political agenda' but a 'local and possibly, reasonably independent one', which (purposely, to deflect attention away from the growing visual cracks in its own narrative) used the common enemy, 'the P word' and put the fear of god and discovery of their own dark, dark secrets into those who also know, that their own weaknesses are perpetually at risk of being exposed.

I believe it is possible that the McCs, arch liars and manipulators as they may appear to many, to be, had their own agenda, that Maddie was caught in the cross-fire, the McCs were caught 'plans thwarted', and good and honest citizens rushed in to help.

Those with fear in their minds leapt in to get a control on the potential disaster, the bigger disaster, (not the little disaster, the failure to get the windows jimmied as per plan, and inform uncle phil to keep her mouth shut in time) to 'spy out the land', to 'get a handle on the new-guys on the block', then 'control', 're-direct' , 'make disappear' anything that might cause risk of larger exposure.

Add to this, an ever hungry press, and in particular, the titian-haired lady and her boss, who could see a 'really good marketing ploy' with its long reaching tentacles and potentially disturbing impact in 'unwanted' quarters.

Manipulators get away with it because they can work to rules that the rest of us just simply can't understand.
They can lie without compunction.
They are committing no crime in their eyes.
It's a game of survival, they will do what they need, twist and turn to stay afloat, to win. The game is 'winning'.

It is not about justice or anything which rules the mindset of the 'non-manipulating'.

Because the 'socially responsible' person has rules, which are supposed to play out in law and in justice, it does not mean that the 'lies, twisting etc. of the manipulator will respond to those laws and say, all right gov, you've got me there.

I have been in two minds, whitewash, not whitewash, when in fact if AR is anything like the calibre of man that GA is, then dealing with slippery eels is one hell of a job and will need whatever it takes to finally hook and reel these blighters in.

I do know though that once caught, the general treatment is to nail them down firmly, to a piece of wood or a tree, before you can get a chance to remove that slippery skin and serve them up smoked and cold.

Andy Redwood (not the MET, with their soiled reputation that will take more than an age to repair) may be as much an individual as Gonçalo Amaral, working discretely behind the scenes, maybe laying a few 'false trails' to distract the eels, nevertheless he may well know what he is dealing with, and we may yet see a resolution which the 'socially minded' citizens need to see, to justify the cohesion that is needed by society to live together, to protect itself from external threats and not be dismantled from within, by usurpers, and abusers of goodwill.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Guest on 28.05.14 11:15

Posting in haste as I only have a few moments so won't deal with the specifics but I do have to say hats off to you Bobbin, a truly great post.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Guest on 28.05.14 11:33

Same here and agreed great post - whatever the Mccanns real agenda (if we ever find out) - then this is a great analysis of how they probably operate. Slippery eels indeed.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by roy rovers on 28.05.14 11:39

Did anyone see Ben MacIntyre's 2 part documentary on the traitor Kim Philby on TV a few weeks ago? It featured this footage of his famous press conference in 1955 denying that he had anything to do with tipping off Burgess and McLean. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2A2g-qRIaU
In fact he was 100% lying, had been responsible for countless deaths and was shortly to flee himself. In the documentary it stated that this footage is still used by the British Secret Services to train agents about how to lie convincingly. The dope taking cyclist Lance Armstrong was another expert liar. These guys make Tom and Jerry look like amateurs.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by TozerDerry on 28.05.14 11:42

OK, that is a good start. Let us apply the Null Hypothesis here and see what it does to our belief systems.

You are suggesting that whatever the McCanns may or may not have done, the ensuing events were not necessarily of their own volition- that other major forces took over and they were swept along with the tide.

Assuming most people here believe that the McCanns were some way involved in more than just neglectful parenting, let us assume the opposite.

Right- we are fairly certain that the Mccanns left the children alone. for several nights. Let us for the momentput aside conspiracy theories about death before the £rd of May which I have seen and which seem somewhat fanciful. Let us assume that they made a truly catastrophic parenting mistake. And apart from being an unlikable couple, that is the limit of their sins.

They lose control of the narrative to an avalanche of advisors and commentators and the stroy develops into a mystery that cannot be solved.

Where does that lead us?

This is the null hypothesis approach and already it is suggesting alternative possibilities.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by nobodythereeither on 28.05.14 11:47

And as there is no apparent evidence of an intruder having entered or left the apartment, where does that leave us now if we are looking for reasons for the McCanns' non-involvement in their daughter's disappearance?

Do we go down the abducted by aliens route?

Sorry to be flippant.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Guest on 28.05.14 11:49

@TozerDerry wrote:
Right- we are fairly certain that the Mccanns left the children alone. for several nights. 
I'm far from certain that the Mccanns actually did leave the children alone.

I believe the neglect story was contrived in order for the abduction theory to be plausible...?

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by TozerDerry on 28.05.14 11:49

@nobodythereeither wrote:And as there is no apparent evidence of an intruder having entered or left the apartment, where does that leave us now if we are looking for reasons for the McCanns' non-involvement in their daughter's disappearance?

Do we go down the abducted by aliens route?

Sorry to be flippant.
Another forensic tool- Absence of Evidence is not Evidence of Absence.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by TozerDerry on 28.05.14 11:50

Andrew77R wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:
Right- we are fairly certain that the Mccanns left the children alone. for several nights. 
I'm far from certain that the Mccanns actually did leave the children alone.

I believe the neglect story was contrived in order for the abduction theory to be plausible...?
But Occams razor suggests taking the simple explanation first and leaving complex ones until later.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Guest on 28.05.14 11:51

TozerDerry: I'm out of my comfort zone discussing scientific theories/method.  However, I am not "fairly certain" that the Mcs left their children alone for several nights.  I do not believe possible death before 3rd May is a "conspiracy".  It is not "fanciful".  IMO.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Doug D on 28.05.14 11:58

TozerDerry:
 
‘Right- we are fairly certain that the Mccanns left the children alone. for several nights.’
 
Are we?
 
 ‘Let us for the moment put aside conspiracy theories about death before the 3rd of May which I have seen and which seem somewhat fanciful. ‘
 
What about the logical, death before 3rd ones?
 
‘Let us assume that they made a truly catastrophic parenting mistake. And apart from being an unlikable couple, that is the limit of their sins.’
 
OK, so if we go along with you and accept GM’s check at 9.10, MO’s check at 9.30 and the KM’s call at 10.00 where do we go from here?
 
‘This is the null hypothesis approach and already it is suggesting alternative possibilities.’
 
Please suggest some.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by nobodythereeither on 28.05.14 12:05

Ladyinred wrote:TozerDerry: I'm out of my comfort zone discussing scientific theories/method.  However, I am not "fairly certain" that the Mcs left their children alone for several nights.  I do not believe possible death before 3rd May is a "conspiracy".  It is not "fanciful".  IMO.
 
I agree. We just don't appear to have independent corroboration of many of the so-called "facts" of this case.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by whatliesbehindthesofa on 28.05.14 12:07

Andrew77R wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:
Right- we are fairly certain that the Mccanns left the children alone. for several nights. 
I'm far from certain that the Mccanns actually did leave the children alone.

I believe the neglect story was contrived in order for the abduction theory to be plausible...?

We have the evidence of Pamela Fenn's statement that she heard crying in 5A for a prolonged period on Tuesday 1st May.

So if Mrs Fenn's statement was truthful and accurate then the neglect story wasn't entirely contrived, as the McCanns did leave at minimum one small child on their own for a significant period of time on the Tuesday.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by HelenMeg on 28.05.14 12:11

@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
Andrew77R wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:
Right- we are fairly certain that the Mccanns left the children alone. for several nights. 
I'm far from certain that the Mccanns actually did leave the children alone.

I believe the neglect story was contrived in order for the abduction theory to be plausible...?

We have the evidence of Pamela Fenn's statement that she heard crying in 5A for a prolonged period on Tuesday 1st May.

So if Mrs Fenn's statement was truthful and accurate then the neglect story wasn't entirely contrived, as the McCanns did leave at minimum one small child on their own for a significant period of time on the Tuesday.
I certainly do not think any of the children were left alone during that week.  Neglect is surely a red herring, and as Andrew says - was necessary to enable an 'abduction' to occur.
I actually didn't think anyone really thought there had been neglect other than those relatively uninformed about the case.
Neglect served the TAPAS 9 really well - as it made sure people spent hours discussing 'neglect' !

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Guest on 28.05.14 12:12

@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
Andrew77R wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:
Right- we are fairly certain that the Mccanns left the children alone. for several nights. 
I'm far from certain that the Mccanns actually did leave the children alone.

I believe the neglect story was contrived in order for the abduction theory to be plausible...?

We have the evidence of Pamela Fenn's statement that she heard crying in 5A for a prolonged period on Tuesday 1st May.

So if Mrs Fenn's statement was truthful and accurate then the neglect story wasn't entirely contrived, as the McCanns did leave at minimum one small child on their own for a significant period of time on the Tuesday.

The crying could have taken place with a parent/adult present.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by whatliesbehindthesofa on 28.05.14 12:14

@HelenMeg wrote:
I certainly do not think any of the children were left alone during that week.  Neglect is surely a red herring, and as Andrew says - was necessary to enable an 'abduction' to occur.
I actually didn't think anyone really thought there had been neglect other than those relatively uninformed about the case.
Neglect served the TAPAS 9 really well - as it made sure people spent hours discussing 'neglect' !

I'm approaching this in the scientific manner that TD has described.  Mrs Pamela Fenn's statement is evidence that contradicts your theory.  Are you claiming that Mrs Fenn's statement is either inaccurate or untruthful?

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Woofer on 28.05.14 12:17

Terrydozer - This null hypothesis has been done before - taking everything the Mcs plus friends have stated at face value and it becomes a farce. And many of us have questioned every hypothesis.  Any searching mind would do that.  What are you trying to get this forum to do, apart from think up a good defence for the suspects.  Anyone would think you`re part of the defence team for the Mcs and need help with some new ideas.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Doug D on 28.05.14 12:22

WLBTS:

‘So if Mrs Fenn's statement was truthful and accurate……’

We don’t know.

There are also question marks over which night it was, whether it was a child she heard crying and also which apartment it was coming from.

I am all for new approaches and looking at things differently, but at the moment this way forward seems to require ‘facts’ that are not facts.

I am however willing and eager to be convinced/converted, but so far all this thread has done is to push Bobbins post back towards forum oblivion. 

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Guest on 28.05.14 12:24

@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
Andrew77R wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:
Right- we are fairly certain that the Mccanns left the children alone. for several nights. 
I'm far from certain that the Mccanns actually did leave the children alone.

I believe the neglect story was contrived in order for the abduction theory to be plausible...?

We have the evidence of Pamela Fenn's statement that she heard crying in 5A for a prolonged period on Tuesday 1st May.

So if Mrs Fenn's statement was truthful and accurate then the neglect story wasn't entirely contrived, as the McCanns did leave at minimum one small child on their own for a significant period of time on the Tuesday.
Yep true.

Posted something, somewhere else (forget now) about that.

The 1st of May was RO'B's turn to pull a sickie / be on babysitting duty.

Did he have enough of a disruptive MBM and put her back in 5a on her own.

Was she in there on her own for other more sinister purposes.

I even read somewhere else that the crying could of been a pre-recording on loop, to again create the neglect / abduction thesis.

It's a shame that nobody else could collaborate with Mrs Fenn about the crying episode of the 1st of May.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by whatliesbehindthesofa on 28.05.14 12:31

@Doug D wrote:WLBTS:

‘So if Mrs Fenn's statement was truthful and accurate……’

We don’t know.

If we did know I wouldn't have inserted the word 'if', but many thanks for informing me of the situation.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Woofer on 28.05.14 12:36

Mrs. Fenn`s friend corroborated the long period of crying cos Mrs. Fenn phoned her to discuss her concern about it.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Angelique on 28.05.14 12:38

Firstly "hats off" to bobbin - very plausible and interesting.

But I don't and cannot accept Mrs. Fenn's statement as there is no one to coroborate her statement unless it's been withheld. She spoke to her friend on the phone I believe but I haven't seen this friend's statement.

I don't believe the neglect happened. I think the baby-sitter did it. JMO.

ETA Just seen WLBTS - have you seen a statement of the friend?

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by russiandoll on 28.05.14 12:38

DougD,

       Thanks for doing what I should have done as soon as I commented on the excellent post by bobbin, which does indeed deserve a thread of its own.

 Re: the issue of a child crying for a long time in 5a. If this was Maddie, the prolonged crying is not evidence that she was alone imo. Evidence only that she could not be calmed for some reason

1. because of being alone and inconsolable
2. or being in the presence of a person who could not attend to her needs for whatever reason
3. ditto.............................................................................but who would not attend to her needs for whatever reason
4. or being with a person who was trying to calm her, speaking in a voice which was drowned out by the wailing and could not be heard by Mrs Fenn.
 If this last was the case, then Maddie, if it was her voice heard by Mrs Fenn, must have been in a bad way.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Guest on 28.05.14 12:40

@Woofer wrote:Mrs. Fenn`s friend corroborated the long period of crying cos Mrs. Fenn phoned her to discuss her concern about it.
Yes i gather that.

Sorry, what i mean't was somebody else actually hearing the crying episode themselves.

I always thought it was a bit odd that a child cries for the best part of an hour and progressively louder, though nobody else apart from Mrs Fenn heard it...

ETA - i'm in no way implying that Mrs F is being untruthful.

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Re: Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?

Post by Woofer on 28.05.14 12:42

We`ve gone off topic.

Back to Bobbin`s original post and the 3rd option.  Was the rush to PdL by government, media etc because the Mcs threw in the `P` word?

Could be.

It`s often struck me that there seem to be an awful lot of pros who sound as if they`re of that persuasion as well or are defending those that are.

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