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Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by nobodythereeither on 27.05.14 18:25

@TozerDerry wrote:
All cases of fixed ideas are similar with similar mental mechanisms in play.

The Null Hypothesis also works for deciding whether there is evidence for a Police Whitewash. Occams Razor is much misunderstood and does not actually say what it has come to mean in everyday discussion, whereas the null hypothesis works in any situation.

From Wikipedia:

Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor and in Latin lex parsimoniae) is a principle of parsimony, economy, or succinctness used in problem-solving devised by William of Ockham (c. 1287 – 1347).

It states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected
. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better.


Anyway, all this is a bit of a diversion, isn't it.

Pleasant as it may be to discuss philosophy (in my case after a gap of, oh, forty years  big grin since I studied it).

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by TozerDerry on 27.05.14 18:32

@nobodythereeither wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:
All cases of fixed ideas are similar with similar mental mechanisms in play.

The Null Hypothesis also works for deciding whether there is evidence for a Police Whitewash. Occams Razor is much misunderstood and does not actually say what it has come to mean in everyday discussion, whereas the null hypothesis works in any situation.

From Wikipedia:

Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor and in Latin lex parsimoniae) is a principle of parsimony, economy, or succinctness used in problem-solving devised by William of Ockham (c. 1287 – 1347).

It states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected
. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better.


Anyway, all this is a bit of a diversion, isn't it.

Pleasant as it may be to discuss philosophy (in my case after a gap of, oh, forty years  big grin since I studied it).
You see Occams Razor would suggest that Police Corruption in this case was unlikely on the grounds that although there have been enquiries in the past that have been marred by Police Corruption, the great majority of cases have not. Assuming Corruption when it is so rarae is multiplying causes, therefore it should be assumed that the first assumption should be that the enquiry is honest.

Is that what you want.

If the contention is that the enquiry IS NOT honest and IS meant to result in a whitewash, without assuming any end, the null hypothesis method would require the conspiracy theorist to try to undermine his/her own thesis by gathering contrary evidence. Can such evidence be found and does it dispute the hypothesis that there is a whitewash.

theer is a subtle difference, although both are based on disproof.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by margaret on 27.05.14 18:54

@nobodythereeither wrote:

Pleasant as it may be to discuss philosophy (in my case after a gap of, oh, forty years  big grin since I studied it).

It's not pleasant, it's boring to read! And that goes for Schrondinger's cat or whoever it is that has the cat.  never mind 

Not getting at anyone, but can we get back on topic pleeeeease?

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by CynicAl on 27.05.14 18:57

I know I'm more of an observer than a contributor, but here's my nickel's worth... 

First, I see a lot of people looking at the track record of 'corrupt' police investigations and feeling cynical. However... If a handful of well-publicised 'corrupt' cases are enough to conclude that this investigation must be a whitewash why is the converse not true? How many cases have the police investigated successfully and without 'corruption'? Surely we can accept that THEY are the statistical rule. . 

Second, I noticed that all the 'corrupt' cases cited had something in common, generally: that they involved the police covering up their own failure, compromise or poor judgement FROM THE OUTSET. They existed, that is that they were known as instances, predominantly because of the implications of the police involvement at outset. 

I'm unaware of other examples of investigations into missing or murdered children being 'corrupted' by police, rather than pursued - mostly to the point of justice. 

Now, I've no doubt some would argue that there are cases to cite where police allegedly covered up high-level child abuse. Savile. Smith. And other notable allegations. I would not argue that high level political interference was not a pernicious source of influence which has been acted upon by jolly boys clubs within police and judiciary. I would, however, argue that doing so has always been a fools errand. These 'covering ups' have done such a pitifully poor job that the internet age is bringing everything out in the wash. We can, in fact, cite Savile, Smith and other alleged examples not because they've been well covered but because they weren't, and because informants sing like canaries eventually. 

Where am I going with this? 

First, for this to be a cover up it would have to be a cover up from outset. You can't get toothpaste back in a tube. If it were a cover up from outset, it could have stopped with PJ and Leicestershire. SY did not need to be engaged to facilitate a cover up. Second, it is an exercise in futility to close the stable door after the horse legged it. You let sleeping dogs lie. 

So, if the investigation is not genuine - rather I should say that if it is not a lure, a trap, a diversion, a ruse, a cover aimed at affording a rational conclusion to this matter and is instead designed to cover up - then qui bene? Who benefits? 

IF the Tory government and SY are dancing to the tune of the implausibly impowered Mc's, or anyone else, to do this pitifully transparentjob of whitewashing, then both will end up crucified when the veneer cracks. The risk is not worth any possible benefit. Now, I know some will argue that corruption and the need to cover up complicity can inspire strange and extreme reactions. I agree. Usually murder disguised as suicide. High profile people over such a precarious  barrel would hardly go to such length to keep those who endanger them alive and making audacious amounts of noise. 

Is David really at the beckoned call of Rebekah? If Emperor Murdoch is so powerful, why the pragmatic allegiances,  why the mood changes, why did TNOTW get sunk, if Rupy is titanium? Does Rupe not owe a favour back to DavCam for the BSkyB gig? You see... So much more going on, so much more at stake, so much more to play politics with, which makes Maddiegate so utterly inconsequential as anything other than an albeit confused effort at hanging the guilt where it rightly belongs.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by Ollie on 27.05.14 19:43

Clay Regazzoni wrote:
No Fate Worse Than De'Ath wrote:I saw this programme when it was on TV.

It transpired that she was actually insured - at least that's what was said at the end.

Apparently so, but without going too far off topic, I doubt that you or I would be given the opportunity to prove it. When it comes to the ordinary public, that database is considered infallible.

The database is not infallible.  My daughter was in her apartment and looked out the kitchen window and saw her car, which was parked in the apartments car park, about to be loaded onto a tow truck.  She ran out and asked what they were doing, a policeman said there was no insurance on her vehicle so they were taking it. She told them it was insured and the police said they didn't believe her, they rang her insurance company who confirmed that the car was insured.  They didn't even apologize.

Sorry to go off topic.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by Guest on 27.05.14 19:44

@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
Gollum wrote:@ nobodythereeither

Surely by applying the principal of Occam Razor principle to the current investigation you are contradicting the Home Secretary's declaration that it is clearly a very complex case?

There is nothing complicated about a little child disappearing as a result of parental neglect, any complications IMO have been subsequently introduced by the very people who are responsible for her disappearance, her parents and their extensive support network!

Surely the question of whether the investigation is a whitewash is entirely different to the question of whether the case is complex.

Not at all.  IMO if the review and subsequent investigation by OG is a whitewash that can only be because the McCann's and the rest of the Tapas group were protected in the first place, something which is indicated quite strongly by all the activity in the early days by people in England, Ireland and Scotland.  The friends, the family, the contacts, the colleagues, the lawyers, the diplomats, the private investigators, the media, the government etc etc.

As I said before, there is nothing complex about the disappearance of a child, there can only be a limited amount of possibilities so the case is only complex because it has been made so people outside of the official Portuguese investigation.  Why else should the case be complex?

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by Angelique on 27.05.14 20:20

If we are going to attempt to apply TozerDerry's Cold Fusion approach we are going to have a problem straight away.

All we have to try and prove innocence is the conflicting statements from T9 and Warner employees and various other guests together with Forensic evidence which has proved inconclusive.

If none of these support each other were are not going to advance anywhere.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by whatliesbehindthesofa on 27.05.14 21:08

Gollum wrote:
@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
Gollum wrote:@ nobodythereeither

Surely by applying the principal of Occam Razor principle to the current investigation you are contradicting the Home Secretary's declaration that it is clearly a very complex case?

There is nothing complicated about a little child disappearing as a result of parental neglect, any complications IMO have been subsequently introduced by the very people who are responsible for her disappearance, her parents and their extensive support network!

Surely the question of whether the investigation is a whitewash is entirely different to the question of whether the case is complex.

Not at all.  IMO if the review and subsequent investigation by OG is a whitewash that can only be because the McCann's and the rest of the Tapas group were protected in the first place, something which is indicated quite strongly by all the activity in the early days by people in England, Ireland and Scotland.  The friends, the family, the contacts, the colleagues, the lawyers, the diplomats, the private investigators, the media, the government etc etc.

As I said before, there is nothing complex about the disappearance of a child, there can only be a limited amount of possibilities so the case is only complex because it has been made so people outside of the official Portuguese investigation.  Why else should the case be complex?

There are many ways that the case can be complex without there being a whitewash. For example, was the body initially hidden, and then moved to a storage location, and then buried elsewhere? How did fluids from an allegedly dead body get in the hire car hired by the McCanns nearly a month after the disappearance? If Madeleine died, when did she die? If Madeleine died, how did she die?

A complex case does not imply a whitewash.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by HelenMeg on 27.05.14 21:37

@TozerDerry wrote:
Clay Regazzoni wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:
You miss the entire point. It is necessary to drop the mindset of guilt and change to innocent (or vice versa for another site.) You are in the position of a Cold Fusion Scientist still looking to prove Cold Fusion rather than disprove it.

By continually seeking support for a theory (even by stating it negatively) it continues to allow confirmation bias which is the problem. this is not specific to this case but to any problem that is difficult to sort out.

I thought your original post was excellent, and made a lot of sense. The problem is that, as PeterMac points out, even trying to apply it to this case is practically futile. It's like trying to look for redeeming features in an individual but then finding out that they have none. This whole charade started on a lie and has continued in the same vein for seven long years.
What you need to see is that people arguing from the other side would be making exactly the same type of remarks about the certainty of their position and would say that there was no evidence of guilt. It is necessary to step out of the mindset and try to critique ones own view rather than support it. It is either that or Occams Razor which is not nearly so sharp. This technique is what makes science work- the continual attempt to undermine ones own position.
Hi TozerDerry

We did have the White Flags thread which discussed what points could support the innocence of the Mc Canns. That followed the Red Flags thread which looked at reasons why they might be guilty. You are right in that most of us have the mindset that the Mc Canns are guilty.  But that has kind of evolved after 7 long years. It can do no harm to turn it on its head and look at this in a more scientific manner! How about we do a regression analysis looking at what factors may combine to predict that parents might lie about the death of their child... I think you make a great point but difficult to see how  to go about this.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by Guest on 27.05.14 23:28

@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
Gollum wrote:
@whatliesbehindthesofa wrote:
Gollum wrote:@ nobodythereeither

Surely by applying the principal of Occam Razor principle to the current investigation you are contradicting the Home Secretary's declaration that it is clearly a very complex case?

There is nothing complicated about a little child disappearing as a result of parental neglect, any complications IMO have been subsequently introduced by the very people who are responsible for her disappearance, her parents and their extensive support network!

Surely the question of whether the investigation is a whitewash is entirely different to the question of whether the case is complex.

Not at all.  IMO if the review and subsequent investigation by OG is a whitewash that can only be because the McCann's and the rest of the Tapas group were protected in the first place, something which is indicated quite strongly by all the activity in the early days by people in England, Ireland and Scotland.  The friends, the family, the contacts, the colleagues, the lawyers, the diplomats, the private investigators, the media, the government etc etc.

As I said before, there is nothing complex about the disappearance of a child, there can only be a limited amount of possibilities so the case is only complex because it has been made so people outside of the official Portuguese investigation.  Why else should the case be complex?

There are many ways that the case can be complex without there being a whitewash.  For example, was the body initially hidden, and then moved to a storage location, and then buried elsewhere?  How did fluids from an allegedly dead body get in the hire car hired by the McCanns nearly a month after the disappearance?  If Madeleine died, when did she die?  If Madeleine died, how did she die?

A complex case does not imply a whitewash.

You are steering away from my point, I'm not suggesting that the use of the word complex by the Home Secretary implies a whitewash.  I'm all for the spirit of discussion by inference but not if it distorts the intended meaning of the OP.  No matter it's not important.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by lj on 28.05.14 0:59

@nglfi wrote:
@lj wrote:
@ShuBob wrote:
@SixMillionQuid wrote:
@nobodythereeither wrote:
@Bishop Brennan wrote: SY have said from day 1 that the parents / T7 are not suspects; they have been updating them regularly; they have not reinterviewed any of the T9; senior SY officers have rubbished the idea on radio.   Right now, the McCann's are outside of the SY investigative remit based on ALL the information and evidence given by AR and all of his superiors.  It would require a major bit of evidence to be discovered (probably by PJ) to persuade them otherwise.
 

I am catching up, so apologies if these points have already been made.

1. "SY have said from day 1 that the parents / T7 are not suspects." The PJ also said the parents were not suspects - until they made them arguidos. What are SY supposed to say in public at this stage, that yes the parents are suspects? Hardly!
How about keeping quiet?

The person from the PJ who said they were not suspects resigned from post just after the parents were made arguido.

So the same may happen in this case? Who knows? In any case, I think it's best to wait and see.

I'll wait and see.

I just wonder for the non-whitewashers: what would be an acceptable outcome for you:

1) the McCanns are being arrested for whatever kind of charge.

2) a patsy suspect is being arrested for the abduction and murder of Madeleine

3) Nobody is being arrested, and the SY claims it's all PJ's fault because they don't want to play ball.

4) Nobody is being arrested and the SY says they have not found enough evidence to create an acceptable scenario.

5) else, please describe
Only that when the Portuguese police have enough evidence to arrest and charge the McCanns, they will. They are clearly working on it as we speak, whether or not they finally have enough evidence at the end is another question. They need the body to come to any definitive conclusions about who did what and how. Or a detailed confession from one or more of the T9.
Scotland Yard can effectively do what they like, they have no official remit over this investigation. If they want to help find evidence to help charge the culprits, then good. If they simply want to spend a load of public money to look busy, then it's a shame about the waste, but the PJ investigation continues unabated. For me the best scenario is that what SY are actually working on is the fraud aspect, where I believe they would have jurisdiction.

But I don't believe they are looking for a patsy, and I don't read anything into them saying the Macs are not suspects (well nothing whitewashy anyway!)

So I guess no 4 is sadly the most likely outcome - I'm not too positive of how much evidence can actually be found now, so if SY say this I don't think it will be for whitewash reasons, rather than that it is actually the case that there isn't enough evidence to prosecute.

Thank you for your answer, nglfi. Do you believe that SY did investigate everything that has to do with the McCanns and Tapas 7?

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by lj on 28.05.14 1:01

@nglfi wrote:Something I've always wondered, for those firmly on the whitewash side, why do people think the Portuguese would willingly go along with this, what would be their motivation? After all , this is and will always be a Portuguese investigation. One of the things that helped me finally get off the fence was when I considered the case more from the Portuguese side,  and I honestly couldn't think of any good reasons why they in particular would re open the investigation to whitewash it.

I don't think the POrtuguese are willingly going along with it. They did not 6 yrs ago, but nobody listened.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by lj on 28.05.14 1:03

@ShuBob wrote:A non-whitewash outcome for me will be for the McCanns along with their tapas friends and Clarence Mitchell made to answer for their many lies and inconsistencies. Nothing else will be acceptable.

Amen, that's what I am waiting for too.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by lj on 28.05.14 1:08

Gollum wrote:Am I being thick because I don't understand why the Portuguese need to be complicit to enable OG to whitewash the case, doesn't the term whitewash tie in with the Mccanns being protected by the British establishment which I think has been widely thought since 2007?  I expect one of the forum's invaluable researchers or long standing members has already written on the subject, disregarding Kate's book where she goes to great lengths to explain their departure from Portugal, iirc in late August or early September the PJ were said to be giving out hints about the change of position for the Mccanns.  If this be true then it seems unlikely that they would have been allowed to leave Portugal at that stage of the investigation but they did, very quickly, some higher authority must have sanctioned their departure and later removed Goncalo Amaral from the case.  Had they remained in Portugal IMO, without British intervention, the investigation would have continued and probably reached a favourable conclusion but as it was they escaped the clutches of the PJ to almost guaranteed freedom.

The Scotland Yard review and reinvestigation could be only to clear their names which at present remain under a cloud?

indeed, great post.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by lj on 28.05.14 1:25

@SixMillionQuid wrote:
@Snifferdog wrote:Sixmillionquid said:

Ah but this is all a trick to fool the T9 into thinking they're of no interest. They'll make a wrong move and then they'll be arrested. Watch you'll see!.

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"It is my belief that Scotland Yard was set out on a mission, not one to find out what happened to Madeleine McCann but to rewrite the history of the case in such a way that the majority of the public simply forgets the past." - The Pat Brown Criminal Profiling Agency

hi sixmillionquid. Have you then changed your mind as to whether it is a whitewash or no?

My mind hasn't been changed, but I have been told there is no evidence of whitewash, and what SY is doing behind the scenes is compiling further evidence not available during the original investigation. So I'm expecting members of the T9 to be arrested soon...at some point.

So am I, I just wonder at what point we are allowed to say "told you so, told you, told you, told you so.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by Halfwit on 28.05.14 1:43

@lj wrote:
@nglfi wrote:Something I've always wondered, for those firmly on the whitewash side, why do people think the Portuguese would willingly go along with this, what would be their motivation? After all , this is and will always be a Portuguese investigation. One of the things that helped me finally get off the fence was when I considered the case more from the Portuguese side,  and I honestly couldn't think of any good reasons why they in particular would re open the investigation to whitewash it.

I don't think the POrtuguese are willingly going along with it. They did not 6 yrs ago, but nobody listened.

My thoughts too.

A rhetorical question. Has the perfect crime ever been committed? My answer - maybe - possibly - probably.

We'll never know.

The intricacies of the disappearance of Madeleine seem to be unfathomable. The lies and inconsistencies are glaringly obvious and yet nothing is further forward after all these years and horrendous expense.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by 1soapy on 28.05.14 2:24

Just a point of reference about the case being simple or complex. The principle of Occam’s razor does not mean, ‘simple’.

The ICE (Internal Combustion Engine), the human brain or an ice crystal are all known to be very complex and beautiful by its relevant advocates, but all would (arguably) be held as pretty much the simplest way of doing or being or getting to what they are.

Occam here is not a rule; it can be wrong. It refers to something, all being equal in most circumstances, the simplest being the most likely explanation.

I am not sure how simple or complex this case is. If all facts (and many may not be known as yet) fit a range of possibilities, the simplest is the most likely to be the one used.

One might argue that the simplest explanation here is therefore a stranger abduction who was clever and simply hasn’t been found. This may well be simple, but it does not fit the evidence or the known facts (no evidence of anyone else in the flat, cadaver in the flat, exceptionally suspicious witness statements/lies/corrections, photo editing on crucial pictures, unprecedented and speedy help from very high levels).

I think that a key reason for public ignorance and a belief that there was a stranger abduction, is the massive focus on suspects, yet why hasn’t equal focus (and therefore disproof of the former) been put on the evidence/facts that there was no-one else in the flat and other key points, e.g. mentioned above? It seems like the PR machine knows what convinces or puts doubt in people.

It would be a useful (and critically a crucial and obvious for many) task to see if many levels of red tape/authority/political or secret agendas are involved by assessing if they are required to explain the case/evidence/facts, and clearly there are some here that have done so and concluded that an argument for a more complex case is required.

If all of what we know fits with either an abduction scenario or an accident or a murder or a high level cover up or anything else, then that is the likely scenario – because that’s where it leads.

I think that it has been established, despite and in the light of, a few good efforts, that the case is not that straightforward (i.e. no simple explanation for any scenario that fits all known facts, unless we have missed something). I think some may be close to the simplest possible explanation, but (without any evidence whatsoever) I suspect there are many more twists, turns, surprises and more things that none of us have thought of yet.

It’s a bit like a math formulae and trying to get it as simple as can be gotten, and then it all clicks into place and/or at least makes sense. It’s great to have so much revealed from the disclosed files, but who knows what is not yet known (or at least by those outside of the official investigators) and how that fits in or changes the game and moves the goalposts?

And I say thanks and pay tribute to all truth seekers, for all their efforts on tCMoMM. I don’t think this can be said to little or too frequently (and I’ve had grievances here myself, but am able to put them in perspective for the greater good) and it may give a bit of a buzz or added momentum to some who may be getting fed up or losing hope in justice, so if I’m off topic, it won’t hurt to leave this and/or just ignore and continue, I don’t think.


Be interested to know if those who believe it is/will be a whitewash would like the case dropped now without conclusion by whatever means.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by Bishop Brennan on 28.05.14 5:29

@1soapy wrote:
Be interested to know if those who believe it is/will be a whitewash would like the case dropped now without conclusion by whatever means.

Even for those who believe that the SY investigation is a whitewash of some sort, there is still that tantalising but faint hope that an undeniable piece of evidence or witness might be found. So, even if it is a 1000-1 shot that the SY path can ever lead to justice - it COULD possibly maybe hopefully happen. Keep going say I.




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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by SixMillionQuid on 28.05.14 7:07

@lj wrote:
@SixMillionQuid wrote:
@Snifferdog wrote:Sixmillionquid said:

Ah but this is all a trick to fool the T9 into thinking they're of no interest. They'll make a wrong move and then they'll be arrested. Watch you'll see!.

____________________
"It is my belief that Scotland Yard was set out on a mission, not one to find out what happened to Madeleine McCann but to rewrite the history of the case in such a way that the majority of the public simply forgets the past." - The Pat Brown Criminal Profiling Agency

hi sixmillionquid. Have you then changed your mind as to whether it is a whitewash or no?

My mind hasn't been changed, but I have been told there is no evidence of whitewash, and what SY is doing behind the scenes is compiling further evidence not available during the original investigation. So I'm expecting members of the T9 to be arrested soon...at some point.

So am I, I just wonder at what point we are allowed to say "told you so, told you, told you, told you so.
Hopefully before the sun turns into a supernova.

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"It is my belief that Scotland Yard was set out on a mission, not one to find out what happened to Madeleine McCann but to rewrite the history of the case in such a way that the majority of the public simply forgets the past." - The Pat Brown Criminal Profiling Agency

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by AndyB on 28.05.14 8:03

@CynicAl wrote:First, I see a lot of people looking at the track record of 'corrupt' police investigations and feeling cynical. However... If a handful of well-publicised 'corrupt' cases are enough to conclude that this investigation must be a whitewash why is the converse not true? How many cases have the police investigated successfully and without 'corruption'? Surely we can accept that THEY are the statistical rule.
Only if we accept the assumption that the only corrupt cases are those that we know about and that all other cases have been investigated honestly. I cannot accept that. The simple truth is that we have no idea how corrupt the Met are, we only know that they are corrupt and are willing to whitewash even the most heinous crimes for reasons that are hidden

@CynicAl wrote:Second, I noticed that all the 'corrupt' cases cited had something in common, generally: that they involved the police covering up their own failure, compromise or poor judgement FROM THE OUTSET. They existed, that is that they were known as instances, predominantly because of the implications of the police involvement at outset.
Again,  unless we know of all instances of police corruption we cannot know if there is a common cause, although I would cite the ongoing cover-up of sex abuse by a former Conservative cabinet minister as an example of one whitewash where the commonality you suggest isn't the case http://www.exaronews.com/articles/5262/rapist-ex-cabinet-minister-named-in-tom-watson-s-dpp-letter

@CynicAl wrote:I'm unaware of other examples of investigations into missing or murdered children being 'corrupted' by police, rather than pursued - mostly to the point of justice.
Isn't that because the only cases we become aware of are those that are reported when they are solved? There are many that are covered up by simply not being investigated: http://theneedleblog.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/who-gave-cyril-smith-the-keys-to-the-sweet-shop/

@CynicAl wrote:Now, I've no doubt some would argue that there are cases to cite where police allegedly covered up high-level child abuse. Savile. Smith. And other notable allegations. I would not argue that high level political interference was not a pernicious source of influence which has been acted upon by jolly boys clubs within police and judiciary. I would, however, argue that doing so has always been a fools errand. These 'covering ups' have done such a pitifully poor job that the internet age is bringing everything out in the wash. We can, in fact, cite Savile, Smith and other alleged examples not because they've been well covered but because they weren't, and because informants sing like canaries eventually. 
Savile's crimes were covered up so well that no-one knew about them until after his death when it was no longer possible to libel him. (In English law you cannot libel dead people so, as soon as Savile died, the press were free to report what they, the police and the rest of the establishment had successfully covered up for years). The success of the cover-up can be measured by the shock at what Savile had been doing all his life when it came out. Given that the cover-up regarding Savile was so successful during his lifetime, what else is being covered up today that we will be shocked to hear about in 10, 20, 50 years time when the next famous paedophile dies?

What is truly appalling about the whole paedophile thing, including Tom Watson's revelation of a paedophile ring that reaches the heart of government including no 10, is not the paedophilia itself, as bad as that is. It's that it seems establishment figures are free to rape children with impunity and that they will be, and are, protected by the full might of the state. That same level of protection appears to have been extended to the McCann's, at least originally, and I'd like to know why that was. As to whether that protection is continuing, I haven't seen any evidence that convinces me it isn't although the review turning into an investigation does give me food for thought and I cannot explain it in the context of a cover-up

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by bobbin on 28.05.14 8:14

Occam's razor, Not Occam's razor or possibly a third option ?
Something we haven't really covered in much depth.

As of the earliest reporting, did people, supporters, etc. enter the scene because they were 'unknowingly manipulated' or did they enter to 'spy'.
Rather than think of Kate and Gerry as being part of an over-reaching "master plan", were they in fact a middling couple of 'incidental' catastrophes, an event, exclusive to themselves and their immediates, but which drew the other players in (for the short term).

Initially, Kate, pretty, blonde, hewn features, frail, captured people's goodwill.
I remember an email arriving from a distant aunt, out of the blue, with the one word in capital letters, but with no explanation, "PRAY".
I wondered if she had somehow got to know of something terrible that I had done wrong, and I was about to face retribution, with the one hope only that my salvation might be elicited if I prayed hard enough and convincingly enough.

Within hours, and well before people started to get wise to what a conniving pair the McCs really were, the catholic church was at its full-membership-swing, asking everyone they knew to Pray (as it turned out, not for 'my salvation' but that the little catholic girl who had been abducted from her bed and stolen from her wonderful catholic family, would be found.)

Initially, at their first appeal, many people were taken in. This poor, poor, couple, how could something so tragic befall such an innocent, pretty (Kate) and solid but shocked (Gerry)

Others of us thought, er, not so sure here, something a bit 'not kosher'.

So all and sundry turned up to help. Good honest citizens, putting every personal consideration aside, just went out and out to find this little girl.

Then some more sundries turned up by way of 'uncle phil', uncle john and old uncle tom cobbly and all, with their cozzies, to soak up the sun, wine and local hospitality (except for the two participants of the 'granny express' whose buck-shee holidays were cut short because they started to put the cat amongst the pigeons and suffer their respective offspring to answer some ludicrously un-useful questions).

So we can see how the 'manipulating' couple got the catholic church on side, the public, the media, simply because they looked, acted and played out the 'oh so vulnerable / hurt 'me' 'us' thing'.

Then the politicians got involved. Gordon Brown, Tony Bl**r, the Home Office, the ambassadors, etc. and within seconds damage control were in there, in every shape, form and size.

Why ?
Well, the vulnerable couple had called out the P word.

Alarm is set ringing in anyone's ears, who might have a 'fear' of something untoward being 'spilled' on the now reddening carpet laid out before the sanctified couple before 'they' put their feet forward to be photo shot, smiling for the cameras, tripping their way lightly over the pavement, unified by their little hands, innocent green and yellow (good quality) wristbands, sparkling in the sunshine of the fresh Portuguese spring.

But the 'normal' P word network, looking around in angst at their known (yet unknown) counterparts were almost voicing the words "who are these people?" Which faction do they belong to, haven't heard of them on the circuit, what do they know, what do they have on us, what's their agenda, what might they 'say'.

Best action, get the damage control guys down there A.S.A.P.
Get them covered, bring them in, find out what, who, when, how, where.
Start getting a Control on what goes out in the mdia, get a handle on this before it goes viral.

And so it snowballed.
Backfilling and emergency plasters/gags were applied in haste.
The flames of potentially explosive situations were dowsed as soon as they started to show signs of 'glowing'.

Gaps appeared in narratives, weak links started to strain at the integrity and bonding strength of the whole chain.

Thorns in the flesh required a daily ritualistic session of applying the right sized tweezers and enough 'grip' to get thorns removed.
You can smell the panic. Gonçalo Amaral, that Portuguese plod is getting too close. Move him out.
What ! he's writing a book, diss him, papers, media, twist some crime records, dig out what you can, dig something, anything out if you can't find anything, just make it stick.

Back to 'manipulators'. They are as slippery as eels but more so.

I sometimes wonder if what we are looking at, is not so much a 'previously contrived, all out political agenda' but a 'local and possibly, reasonably independent one', which (purposely, to deflect attention away from the growing visual cracks in its own narrative) used the common enemy, 'the P word' and put the fear of god and discovery of their own dark, dark secrets into those who also know, that their own weaknesses are perpetually at risk of being exposed.

I believe it is possible that the McCs, arch liars and manipulators as they may appear to many, to be, had their own agenda, that Maddie was caught in the cross-fire, the McCs were caught 'plans thwarted', and good and honest citizens rushed in to help.

Those with fear in their minds leapt in to get a control on the potential disaster, the bigger disaster, (not the little disaster, the failure to get the windows jimmied as per plan, and inform uncle phil to keep her mouth shut in time) to 'spy out the land', to 'get a handle on the new-guys on the block', then 'control', 're-direct' , 'make disappear' anything that might cause risk of larger exposure.

Add to this, an ever hungry press, and in particular, the titian-haired lady and her boss, who could see a 'really good marketing ploy' with its long reaching tentacles and potentially disturbing impact in 'unwanted' quarters.

Manipulators get away with it because they can work to rules that the rest of us just simply can't understand.
They can lie without compunction.
They are committing no crime in their eyes.
It's a game of survival, they will do what they need, twist and turn to stay afloat, to win. The game is 'winning'.

It is not about justice or anything which rules the mindset of the 'non-manipulating'.

Because the 'socially responsible' person has rules, which are supposed to play out in law and in justice, it does not mean that the 'lies, twisting etc. of the manipulator will respond to those laws and say, all right gov, you've got me there.

I have been in two minds, whitewash, not whitewash, when in fact if AR is anything like the calibre of man that GA is, then dealing with slippery eels is one hell of a job and will need whatever it takes to finally hook and reel these blighters in.

I do know though that once caught, the general treatment is to nail them down firmly, to a piece of wood or a tree, before you can get a chance to remove that slippery skin and serve them up smoked and cold.

Andy Redwood (not the MET, with their soiled reputation that will take more than an age to repair) may be as much an individual as Gonçalo Amaral, working discretely behind the scenes, maybe laying a few 'false trails' to distract the eels, nevertheless he may well know what he is dealing with, and we may yet see a resolution which the 'socially minded' citizens need to see, to justify the cohesion that is needed by society to live together, to protect itself from external threats and not be dismantled from within, by usurpers, and abusers of goodwill.


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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by canada12 on 28.05.14 8:18

The thing about Jimmy Savile is that he made a point of making himself big and famous - the bigger and more famous, the better. And he coupled that with a number of "good deeds" so that people put him on a pedestal. Publicly, he was famous and admired for his charitable deeds, the result being that if any of his victims did complain, they were dismissed because Savile was "untouchable".

It's as if he wrote the manual for making yourself untouchable and beyond reproach. Big yourself up. Put yourself "out there" so that everyone can see what a famous person you are. Couple that with charitable deeds and make sure your face is the one people associate with those charitable deeds.

Hmm.
Sound familiar?

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by aiyoyo on 28.05.14 8:24

@Angelique wrote:If we are going to attempt to apply TozerDerry's Cold Fusion approach we are going to have a problem straight away.

All we have to try and prove innocence is the conflicting statements from T9 and Warner employees and various other guests together with Forensic evidence which has proved inconclusive.

If none of these support each other were are not going to advance anywhere.

Assumption of guilt or innocence is based on evidence.
Cold Fusion approach works only if evidence is open to interpretation either way, having merits that both sides can use to support their arguments.
This case in question the evidence is a pretty much an open and close book, one that leans even from the outset heavily to parents involvement. Hence members mindset they are guilty - it's an inevitable deduction.

Even a novice applying an open mind can't help arriving at that mindset, not when they did not search, kate's refused to answer police questions (lawyer advice is poor excuse as truthful answers of someone innocence cannot self incriminate) taken with cadaverine detection dogs markings, blank refusal to return for reconstruction, inconsistent testimonies, spin and all the rest, these are all strong circumstantial evidence against them.

So far I have not seen reasonable behavior or any evidence they are innocence. Even their action of hiring a series of PIs not experts in the field of searching for missing persons is not indicative of innocents desperate to find their child.

Cold Fusion approach is useless for this case.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by aiyoyo on 28.05.14 8:39

Whichever your belief, whitewash or otherwise, it's clear as crystal OG believes she is dead and they're using cadaverine dogs (yes cadaverine detection dogs), radar and other equipment for the excavation, so that is indication they could not have ignored the last set of dogs findings.

We can make of it what we will of the current operation but all is not lost, not yet anyway.

Most reports say MET believe a burglar took her but that does not square with cadaverine detection in the apt.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by noddy100 on 28.05.14 8:39

@canada12 wrote:The thing about Jimmy Savile is that he made a point of making himself big and famous - the bigger and more famous, the better. And he coupled that with a number of "good deeds" so that people put him on a pedestal. Publicly, he was famous and admired for his charitable deeds, the result being that if any of his victims did complain, they were dismissed because Savile was "untouchable".

It's as if he wrote the manual for making yourself untouchable and beyond reproach. Big yourself up. Put yourself "out there" so that everyone can see what a famous person you are. Couple that with charitable deeds and make sure your face is the one people associate with those charitable deeds.

Hmm.
Sound familiar?
I agree with this
They are trying to be so conspicuous that they couldn't possibly be lying
I mean why would they continue this if they were in any way involved

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