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Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by Atomic Peanut on 27.05.14 14:34

@AndyB wrote:I don't need to reread your post. I read it clearly and you quoted nglfi. If you're not arguing with nglfi why quote them, especially considering that they didn't make the point that you disagree with?
Because one often quotes a poster when agreeing with them, or when they have mentioned something that you wish to develop, it's a reminder to others which previous point you are referring to.

My posts are intended for everyone, they aren't private messages to one poster. Maybe you thought the point I made was specifically directed at nglfi. It wasn't.

Back to this interesting topic now, with apologies to the mods for this minor diversion.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by AndyB on 27.05.14 14:49

@nobodythereeither wrote:
My reference to Occam's Razor was in relation to whether or not the investigation is a whitewash.

It is far simpler and more straightforward to view it as a genuine investigation into the disappearance of a child (however complex the actual investigation itself may be) than to view it as a very over-the-top, expensive, lengthy and complicated whitewash involving many people including the police of at least two countries.
The problem is that Occams razor isn’t a rule. It merely states that the simplest explanation is likely to be the correct one not that it always is and applying it in this way ignores two very important aspects of what’s happening. The first is that there are two distinct investigations going on, one by the Met and one by the Portuguese. It is entirely possible that one is corrupt and the other is genuine and all that follows relates only to the Met. The second aspect that it ignores is the context, which is this.

The police have, over recent years, been revealed to be corrupt in a number of different cases, and the full truth of most of them has never come out. No-one has been punished in any way for the Hillsborough cover up for example. I am sure that, had this forum existed at the time, there would be many on here arguing that occams razor suggested that that investigation was genuine.

But perhaps its all historic, the corruption that lead to the police lying about Charles de Menezes behaviour on the day he was killed has been rooted out and they are now the squeaky clean coppers we’d all like them to be. Is there any evidence either way? Well, yes there is actually. You may have read that a former conservative cabinet minister is going to be arrested as a result of allegations made to Fernbridge (or it might be Yewtree, I’m not sure which but its an investigation into allegations of historic sexual abuse of children). The story has appeared several times over the past year or so but the arrest hasn’t happened. He hasn’t even been questioned yet, leading Tom Watson to write a very angry letter to the DPP. From this it should be obvious that the Met are prepared to ignore – cover-up - allegations of paedophilia against members of the establishment. If they're capable of covering-up allegations of criminal behaviour as horrific as this just what aren't they capable of covering up?

Clearly there is no evidence that anything like paedophilia is connected to the Madeleine McCann case, although if there were, and it were to involve, say, a former Conservative cabinet minister, I think its clear that the Met would go into whitewash mode and that occams razor would suggest cover-up.

David Payne is connected to (but not responsible for) the disappearance of  Madeleine by virtue of the fact that he was part of the same holiday group as the McCanns. In their statements the doctors Gasper allege that he made crude sexually suggestive comments about Madeleine. Yvonne Martin the social worker holidaying in PDL when Madeleine disappeared thought she recognised David Payne, although she couldn’t recall exactly why he seemed familiar.

The most recent reconstruction in crime watch did not feature David Payne. This must have been approved by the Met, if not directed by them, and its difficult to understand why a genuine Met investigation should be trying to airbrush him out of the picture.

To apply Occams razor as justification for the current Met investigation being genuine is surely to ignore all the historic and ongoing corrupt behaviour there, and all the Met's behaviour and announcements in connection with their investigation into Madeleine's disappearance. For me the simplest explanation is that the Met are covering up some big secret connected to the McCanns, or the T7, and that this cover-up may extend to framing one or other of the McCanns for a murder that they didn't commit.

ETA There's an update on the met corruption in respect of the former cabinet minister at Exaro (link below). It includes the following
Exaro wrote:Police launched a smear campaign against the woman who alleges that a
former cabinet minister raped her as a student, Exaro can reveal.

[...]

The Met was also behind a false story in one national newspaper that it
had referred the case to the Crown Prosecution Service for a charging
decision. In truth, it had merely consulted the CPS last summer for
advice on whether to continue the investigation by arresting and
questioning the alleged attacker.

Link: http://www.exaronews.com/articles/5267/police-smear-woman-who-alleged-rape-by-ex-cabinet-minister

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by Cristobell on 27.05.14 15:33

@Mirage wrote:Ref the DM article I posted on page 56 about a meeting in Lisbon last October:
------------------------------------------------

"Portugal’s Attorney General confirmed on Thursday that the probe was being reopened at the request of police based in Porto who have spent the last two and a half years reviewing the case.

The McCanns’ Portuguese lawyer, Rogerio Alves, said local police have finally admitted to the couple they no longer regard them as suspects, more than five years after the original investigation was shelved.

The couple were told in a police briefing last week in Lisbon, new lines of inquiry which have led to the reopening of the investigation in Portugal, absolve them of any responsibility.

Mr Alves said: 'The McCanns were already informed about the reopening of the inquiry and the reasons why it was being reopened.

'They also know that this new line of inquiry excludes any responsibility of the parents.

'The Portuguese police told them this at a meeting in Lisbon last week at which British police were also present.'What it means is that the police understand there are new avenues that should be explored.

'This brings Madeleine’s parents a legitimate expectation not only that the truth will be discovered but also that it will be possible to find Madeleine alive which is the sole aim of all the efforts they’ve been making
."[/


-----------------------------------
Is there any evidence to show the Mcs were not given assistente status? I mean, the libel trial got a long way in before anyone even queried the WOC anomaly.

I appreciate this is Rogerio Alves talking, but f you reverse the situation and a lawyer deliberately mis-quoted Dominic Greave to a foreign newspaper on a case of global importance I  cannot imagine it going uncorrected and the lawyer not hauled over the coals.

Whether or not the Mcs were granted assistente status, the information they were given at that meeting chimes with the messages coming from OG ever since, with one exception: They have closed down the expectation of finding a live child and are now looking for a body. This also chimes with the KH's preparatory press article - We just want too know the truth and put an end to it all.

Enter the helicopter search and the digs.

This is designed to wear people down to the point where they lose interest IMO. Now OG are going into purdah for an unspecified period. A prequel, I suspect, to announcing the result I'm afraid we are not going to like.
This is designed to wear people down to the point where they lose interest IMO. 


Apologies Mirage, but nonsense!  If you want something to go away, you don't start out by increasing the audience with a fanfare of tabloid headlines and promises.  Thing that disappear do so quietly,we know nothing about them unless they reappear once the 30 year state secret rule is up, and then we all go Ooer, I didn't know that.  Imo, they are doing the opposite of covering up, in fact they are making life for the McCanns very difficult indeed.  As Blacksmith said, if the McCanns had something tangible that excluded them from any involvement in the disappearance of Madeleine they would have produced it at the start of the Lisbon libel trial.  The McCanns are looking for a live child and Tannerman.  The police are looking for a body.  If a coverup were underway they would not be at odds with each other.  A cover up is a risky enough business as it is, without the main players co-operation, it is impossible.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by nobodythereeither on 27.05.14 15:36

@AndyB wrote:
@nobodythereeither wrote:
My reference to Occam's Razor was in relation to whether or not the investigation is a whitewash.

It is far simpler and more straightforward to view it as a genuine investigation into the disappearance of a child (however complex the actual investigation itself may be) than to view it as a very over-the-top, expensive, lengthy and complicated whitewash involving many people including the police of at least two countries.
The problem is that Occams razor isn’t a rule. It merely states that the simplest explanation is likely to be the correct one not that it always is and applying it in this way ignores two very important aspects of what’s happening. The first is that there are two distinct investigations going on, one by the Met and one by the Portuguese. It is entirely possible that one is corrupt and the other is genuine and all that follows relates only to the Met. The second aspect that it ignores is the context, which is this.

The police have, over recent years, been revealed to be corrupt in a number of different cases, and the full truth of most of them has never come out. No-one has been punished in any way for the Hillsborough cover up for example. I am sure that, had this forum existed at the time, there would be many on here arguing that occams razor suggested that that investigation was genuine.

But perhaps its all historic, the corruption that lead to the police lying about Charles de Menezes behaviour on the day he was killed has been rooted out and they are now the squeaky clean coppers we’d all like them to be. Is there any evidence either way? Well, yes there is actually. You may have read that a former conservative cabinet minister is going to be arrested as a result of allegations made to Fernbridge (or it might be Yewtree, I’m not sure which but its an investigation into allegations of historic sexual abuse of children). The story has appeared several times over the past year or so but the arrest hasn’t happened. He hasn’t even been questioned yet, leading Tom Watson to write a very angry letter to the DPP. From this it should be obvious that the Met are prepared to ignore – cover-up - allegations of paedophilia against members of the establishment. If they're capable of covering-up allegations of criminal behaviour as horrific as this just what aren't they capable of covering up?

Clearly there is no evidence that anything like paedophilia is connected to the Madeleine McCann case, although if there were, and it were to involve, say, a former Conservative cabinet minister, I think its clear that the Met would go into whitewash mode and that occams razor would suggest cover-up.

David Payne is connected to (but not responsible for) the disappearance of  Madeleine by virtue of the fact that he was part of the same holiday group as the McCanns. In their statements the doctors Gasper allege that he made crude sexually suggestive comments about Madeleine. Yvonne Martin the social worker holidaying in PDL when Madeleine disappeared thought she recognised David Payne, although she couldn’t recall exactly why he seemed familiar.

The most recent reconstruction in crime watch did not feature David Payne. This must have been approved by the Met, if not directed by them, and its difficult to understand why a genuine Met investigation should be trying to airbrush him out of the picture.

To apply Occams razor as justification for the current Met investigation being genuine is surely to ignore all the historic and ongoing corrupt behaviour there, and all the Met's behaviour and announcements in connection with their investigation into Madeleine's disappearance. For me the simplest explanation is that the Met are covering up some big secret connected to the McCanns, or the T7, and that this cover-up may extend to framing one or other of the McCanns for a murder that they didn't commit.

The climate is changing/has changed.

There has been much publicity about historic police corruption of late, including Theresa May's widely reported comments at the Police Federation conference, or whatever it was.

I would have said that that would mean  that this high profile investigation would be taking a massive risk if it was corrupt in any way. But of course I recognise that some people on here are convinced of its corrupt nature.

Crimewatch could not possibly have covered every aspect of the investigation, and the focus was on eliminating the "abductor" seen by Jane Tanner, and emphasising the "abductor" seen by Martin Smith. Given that focus, I don't see anything strange about the omission of David Payne.

I think until there is some sort of conclusion to this case - ie either there are charges or SY say they do not have sufficient evidence to bring charges - then we will have to agree to disagree, no? Since none of us actually knows exactly what SY are doing or why.

I am still of the opinion that the investigation is genuine. Time will tell, eh.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by AndyB on 27.05.14 15:42

Absolutely, and I hope you're right. The problem with leaving Payne out of the reconstruction is that it was portrayed as an accurate reconstruction of the events of the evening. That cannot be the case without Payne and, given the claims made by the Gaspers in particular, his omission strikes me as being suspicious.

BTW I think I addressed the climate has changed argument with the reference to existing corruption in respect of a former Conservative cabinet minister. I've also updated the post with the latest on that from Exaro.

I wonder if we're both right, and there is a battle going on between the cover-up people and those who want an honest investigation with Tom Watson's letter and Mays attack on the Police Federation being examples of the latter

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by SixMillionQuid on 27.05.14 15:47

@Snifferdog wrote:Sixmillionquid said:

Ah but this is all a trick to fool the T9 into thinking they're of no interest. They'll make a wrong move and then they'll be arrested. Watch you'll see!.

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hi sixmillionquid. Have you then changed your mind as to whether it is a whitewash or no?

My mind hasn't been changed, but I have been told there is no evidence of whitewash, and what SY is doing behind the scenes is compiling further evidence not available during the original investigation. So I'm expecting members of the T9 to be arrested soon...at some point.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by Guest on 27.05.14 16:05

@AndyB wrote:Absolutely, and I hope you're right. The problem with leaving Payne out of the reconstruction is that it was portrayed as an accurate reconstruction of the events of the evening. That cannot be the case without Payne and, given the claims made by the Gaspers in particular, his omission strikes me as being suspicious.


Making such a significant change to events for the purposes of a reconstruction shows that they weren't really looking to jog the memory of anybody who was present in the Tapas restaurant that night.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by TozerDerry on 27.05.14 16:05

Speaking as a Philosopher and a Scientist, I would say that more important in determining truth than Occam's Razor is a use of the Null Hypothesis.

I have only drifted here, but in my reading here and elsewhere the zeitgeist here is that The McCanns were probably involved in the disappearance of Madeleine. I have found other sites that are equally convinced that they are innocent.

One of the problems of Scientific and Philosophical investigation is Participant Bias. If, for instance, one is researching Cold Fusion (as happened a decade ago) one is likely to be pulled continually in the direction of accepting it and desiring data to support it. This happened and a group of scientists talked themselves into a corner, producing an experiment with results that proved incorrect in that they were not replicable by any other team.

They had ignored one of the tenets of Science- testing using refutation. In order to test your firmly held belief, you should name as your goal the opposite of your goal and call this the null hypothesis. So if you were trying to prove Cold Fusion, you should create a Null Hypothesis that Cold Fusion is Impossible and attempt to disprove that, rather than assuming Cold Fusion and trying to prove it as true.
This is used as a technique to avoid particpant bias and assuming a conclusion. It also works against group think where being surrounded by many other people sharing the same mindset tends to exclude radical thinking and clear insight into what is happening. It is also use in long lasting police investigations where a new team is put in to assume the opposite of the main team and seek evicence independently when the original team has failed in its majority assumptions.

So, rather than applying Occams Razor (which is valuable but slightly sterile), it is more productive to use a Null Hypothesis technique. That would involve this forum having a section with the intention to seek out every reason why the McCanns were innocent as driven snow, and other pro-McCann Fora having sections with the intention of proving the McCanns guilty as sin.

It is probably never going to happen, but it is the way that science and philosophy approaches difficult questions.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by OpenMind on 27.05.14 16:07

@SixMillionQuid wrote:
My mind hasn't been changed, but I have been told there is no evidence of whitewash, and what SY is doing behind the scenes is compiling further evidence not available during the original investigation. So I'm expecting members of the T9 to be arrested soon...at some point.
Every time I hear any mention on MBM on the TV or radio I dare to hope just for a second that the obvious people, who by nature of their connection to her,  may hold the key to opening up the secrets of this case,  may have been rounded up and at very least questioned again,  if not more.......

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by rainbow-fairy on 27.05.14 16:21

Clay Regazzoni wrote:
No Fate Worse Than De'Ath wrote:I saw this programme when it was on TV.

It transpired that she was actually insured - at least that's what was said at the end.

Apparently so, but without going too far off topic, I doubt that you or I would be given the opportunity to prove it. When it comes to the ordinary public, that database is considered infallible.

Too right we wouldn't! 3 years ago I was stopped for doing 35 in a 30 and was horrified to be told I had no insurance! 
Despite calls to my mum who confirmed direct debits were leaving her account for it, my car was impounded and I was left with myself and a puppy in a crate to get home.

Renewal error, it turned out but I STILL Had to go to court (armed with a grovelling apology from ins company, stating their mistake and they WOULD have paid out had I had an accident).

So yes us mortals don't get the same treatment... anyway  offtopic so I'll shut up now laughat

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by jeanmonroe on 27.05.14 16:45

At the risk of being labelled 'boring' i'll ask again:

HOW does 'finding' anything, in the upcoming 'digs', possibly related to Madeleine's 'disappearance' irrefutably 'eliminate' the McCanns from any possibly involvement in Madeleine's 'disappearance'?

THEY and all their 'friends' were IN PDL at the exact 'time' of Madeleine's 'disappearance'

I'll post later on the MET's, 'overly KEEN eagerness', imo, to 'help' their Portuguese collegues in specific 'searches/digs'

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by PeterMac on 27.05.14 16:50

@TozerDerry wrote:. . That would involve this forum having a section with the intention to seek out every reason why the McCanns were innocent as driven snow . .
Excellent post.
The only problem is when we actually try it
1 The parents told the truth and assisted the Police in every way they could - errrm, No.
2 The parents actively searched the entire village looking for their missing child - errrm, No.
3 The parents can prove that they were eternaly vigilant about the safety and security of their children and although they were not with them, ensured the doors and windows were secure. - errrm, No.

Not quite so easy !

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by rainbow-fairy on 27.05.14 17:00

@PeterMac wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:. .  That would involve this forum having a section with the intention to seek out every reason why the McCanns were innocent as driven snow . .
Excellent post.
The only problem is when we actually try it
1  The parents told the truth and assisted the Police in every way they could  -  errrm, No.
2  The parents actively searched the entire village looking for their missing child   - errrm, No.
3  The parents can prove that they were eternaly vigilant about the safety and security of their children and although they were not with them, ensured the doors and windows were secure. - errrm, No.

Not quite so easy !
Too true PeterMac - I think the 'Pro-boards' would have much more to work with laughat

IIRC, didn't a thread here attempt it? Was it 'White Flags'?

I can't find one thing to point to their innocence at all nah

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by Hobs on 27.05.14 17:06

@PeterMac wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:. .  That would involve this forum having a section with the intention to seek out every reason why the McCanns were innocent as driven snow . .
Excellent post.
The only problem is when we actually try it
1  The parents told the truth and assisted the Police in every way they could  -  errrm, No.
2  The parents actively searched the entire village looking for their missing child   - errrm, No.
3  The parents can prove that they were eternaly vigilant about the safety and security of their children and although they were not with them, ensured the doors and windows were secure. - errrm, No.

Not quite so easy !

#1 is technically true.
They did tell the truth and assist the police in every way they could.
However there were limitations in how they could based on guilt and guilty knowledge and consequences.

They could only tell the truth in so far as it didn;t implicate them or any of the group and they could only assist in as far as it didn't lead police to suspect or prove their involvement in either the death, the disposal or  subsequent coverup.

It is something i often see in cases where 'suspects' often parents of the missing child tell us they are doing everything they can to help find their missing child, indicating there are things they can't do to find their child.

When you see we / i am/are doing everything i /we can it means their are limits to what they can do.

Innocent parents will generally place no limits on how or what they can do and it needs to be looked at closer if we see limitis being placed.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by jeanmonroe on 27.05.14 17:11

"So, wee Lorraine, WHY is it absolutely IMPOSSIBLE that the McCanns were not somehow involved in Madeleine's disappearance?"

LK: "er, umm, err, because, .....they are both lovely?"

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by PeterMac on 27.05.14 17:26

@Hobs wrote:
#1 is technically true.
They did tell the truth and assist the police in every way they could.
However there were limitations in how they could based on guilt and guilty knowledge and consequences..
And they gave several conflicting "Versions of the truth" to quote Kate's strange statement

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by TozerDerry on 27.05.14 17:27

@PeterMac wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:. .  That would involve this forum having a section with the intention to seek out every reason why the McCanns were innocent as driven snow . .
Excellent post.
The only problem is when we actually try it
1  The parents told the truth and assisted the Police in every way they could  -  errrm, No.
2  The parents actively searched the entire village looking for their missing child   - errrm, No.
3  The parents can prove that they were eternaly vigilant about the safety and security of their children and although they were not with them, ensured the doors and windows were secure. - errrm, No.

Not quite so easy !
You miss the entire point. It is necessary to drop the mindset of guilt and change to innocent (or vice versa for another site.) You are in the position of a Cold Fusion Scientist still looking to prove Cold Fusion rather than disprove it.

By continually seeking support for a theory (even by stating it negatively) it continues to allow confirmation bias which is the problem. this is not specific to this case but to any problem that is difficult to sort out.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by Guest on 27.05.14 17:43

@TozerDerry wrote:
You miss the entire point. It is necessary to drop the mindset of guilt and change to innocent (or vice versa for another site.) You are in the position of a Cold Fusion Scientist still looking to prove Cold Fusion rather than disprove it.

By continually seeking support for a theory (even by stating it negatively) it continues to allow confirmation bias which is the problem. this is not specific to this case but to any problem that is difficult to sort out.

I thought your original post was excellent, and made a lot of sense. The problem is that, as PeterMac points out, even trying to apply it to this case is practically futile. It's like trying to look for redeeming features in an individual but then finding out that they have none. This whole charade started on a lie and has continued in the same vein for seven long years.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by nobodythereeither on 27.05.14 17:52

@TozerDerry wrote:So, rather than applying Occams Razor (which is valuable but slightly sterile), it is more productive to use a Null Hypothesis technique. That would involve this forum having a section with the intention to seek out every reason why the McCanns were innocent as driven snow, and other pro-McCann Fora having sections with the intention of proving the McCanns guilty as sin.

It is probably never going to happen, but it is the way that science and philosophy approaches difficult questions.

I think you'll find that this and other forums have been doing that for the last seven (?) years!

The trouble is that we are not in possession of all the information - we only have what has been released into the public domain via the PJ files, unless you count a load of dross reported in the MSM and of course Mrs McCann's book - so we may be able to prove for example that the McCanns have lied, but we can't prove that they are innocent or guilty of any crime involving the death of their daughter.

And nor, it seems, can SY or the PJ. Yet.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by TozerDerry on 27.05.14 17:56

Clay Regazzoni wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:
You miss the entire point. It is necessary to drop the mindset of guilt and change to innocent (or vice versa for another site.) You are in the position of a Cold Fusion Scientist still looking to prove Cold Fusion rather than disprove it.

By continually seeking support for a theory (even by stating it negatively) it continues to allow confirmation bias which is the problem. this is not specific to this case but to any problem that is difficult to sort out.

I thought your original post was excellent, and made a lot of sense. The problem is that, as PeterMac points out, even trying to apply it to this case is practically futile. It's like trying to look for redeeming features in an individual but then finding out that they have none. This whole charade started on a lie and has continued in the same vein for seven long years.
What you need to see is that people arguing from the other side would be making exactly the same type of remarks about the certainty of their position and would say that there was no evidence of guilt. It is necessary to step out of the mindset and try to critique ones own view rather than support it. It is either that or Occams Razor which is not nearly so sharp. This technique is what makes science work- the continual attempt to undermine ones own position.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by nobodythereeither on 27.05.14 17:59

@jeanmonroe wrote:At the risk of being labelled 'boring' i'll ask again:

HOW does 'finding' anything, in the upcoming 'digs', possibly related to Madeleine's 'disappearance' irrefutably 'eliminate' the McCanns from any possibly involvement in Madeleine's 'disappearance'?

THEY and all their 'friends' were IN PDL at the exact 'time' of Madeleine's 'disappearance'

I'll post later on the MET's, 'overly KEEN eagerness', imo, to 'help' their Portuguese collegues in specific 'searches/digs'

Sorry but I don't understand this.

Do you mean that you're expecting the Met to plant something, or alternatively to "disappear" what they may find? Or to (falsely?) deny that it has any connection to the McCanns?

Of course they were in PDL, they were on holiday! Sorry to be dim but I don't understand what you're getting at.

My understanding was that it was the Portuguese police who were going to be doing the actual digging?

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by TozerDerry on 27.05.14 18:03

@nobodythereeither wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:So, rather than applying Occams Razor (which is valuable but slightly sterile), it is more productive to use a Null Hypothesis technique. That would involve this forum having a section with the intention to seek out every reason why the McCanns were innocent as driven snow, and other pro-McCann Fora having sections with the intention of proving the McCanns guilty as sin.

It is probably never going to happen, but it is the way that science and philosophy approaches difficult questions.

I think you'll find that this and other forums have been doing that for the last seven (?) years!

The trouble is that we are not in possession of all the information - we only have what has been released into the public domain via the PJ files, unless you count a load of dross reported in the MSM and of course Mrs McCann's book - so we may be able to prove for example that the McCanns have lied, but we can't prove that they are innocent or guilty of any crime involving the death of their daughter.

And nor, it seems, can SY or the PJ. Yet.
I tend to agree. But it does work to aggressively question ones own view if one is to get as close to the truth as possible. As human beings we are fallible and need all the help we can get to overcome those mental mechanisms that stop us from reaching a valid conclusion.

I work in practical moral philosophy with schools, hospitals and companies, trying to help people understand what can and should be done in various circumstances and often meet closed minds and fixed opinions in opposing groups- Cliical vs Admin, Teachers vs Governors, Directors vs stakeholders and so on. Asking people to try to critique their own assumptions often results in a fuller understanding of the problem before the group. This has been part of the Peace Process in various bodies in the North of Ireland- resuing people from entrenched position that have resulted in serious injury and death.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by nobodythereeither on 27.05.14 18:13

@TozerDerry wrote:
@nobodythereeither wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:So, rather than applying Occams Razor (which is valuable but slightly sterile), it is more productive to use a Null Hypothesis technique. That would involve this forum having a section with the intention to seek out every reason why the McCanns were innocent as driven snow, and other pro-McCann Fora having sections with the intention of proving the McCanns guilty as sin.

It is probably never going to happen, but it is the way that science and philosophy approaches difficult questions.

I think you'll find that this and other forums have been doing that for the last seven (?) years!

The trouble is that we are not in possession of all the information - we only have what has been released into the public domain via the PJ files, unless you count a load of dross reported in the MSM and of course Mrs McCann's book - so we may be able to prove for example that the McCanns have lied, but we can't prove that they are innocent or guilty of any crime involving the death of their daughter.

And nor, it seems, can SY or the PJ. Yet.
I tend to agree. But it does work to aggressively question ones own view if one is to get as close to the truth as possible. As human beings we are fallible and need all the help we can get to overcome those mental mechanisms that stop us from reaching a valid conclusion.

I work in practical moral philosophy with schools, hospitals and companies, trying to help people understand what can and should be done in various circumstances and often meet closed minds and fixed opinions in opposing groups- Cliical vs Admin, Teachers vs Governors, Directors vs stakeholders and so on. Asking people to try to critique their own assumptions often results in a fuller understanding of the problem before the group. This has been part of the Peace Process in various bodies in the North of Ireland- resuing people from entrenched position that have resulted in serious injury and death.

That is very useful work, of course, but I do feel that this is a rather different case (no pun intended).

Also, can I just repeat that my introduction of Occam's Razor was specifically in the context of whether or not the SY investigation was a corrupt whitewash, not as some way of deciding how likely it is that the McCanns are innocent or guilty of some crime! It wouldn't be at all appropriate to apply it to that!

So I do not see it as a less useful  alternative to your Null Hypothesis method, which is doing something else completely.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by TozerDerry on 27.05.14 18:18

@nobodythereeither wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:
@nobodythereeither wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:So, rather than applying Occams Razor (which is valuable but slightly sterile), it is more productive to use a Null Hypothesis technique. That would involve this forum having a section with the intention to seek out every reason why the McCanns were innocent as driven snow, and other pro-McCann Fora having sections with the intention of proving the McCanns guilty as sin.

It is probably never going to happen, but it is the way that science and philosophy approaches difficult questions.

I think you'll find that this and other forums have been doing that for the last seven (?) years!

The trouble is that we are not in possession of all the information - we only have what has been released into the public domain via the PJ files, unless you count a load of dross reported in the MSM and of course Mrs McCann's book - so we may be able to prove for example that the McCanns have lied, but we can't prove that they are innocent or guilty of any crime involving the death of their daughter.

And nor, it seems, can SY or the PJ. Yet.
I tend to agree. But it does work to aggressively question ones own view if one is to get as close to the truth as possible. As human beings we are fallible and need all the help we can get to overcome those mental mechanisms that stop us from reaching a valid conclusion.

I work in practical moral philosophy with schools, hospitals and companies, trying to help people understand what can and should be done in various circumstances and often meet closed minds and fixed opinions in opposing groups- Cliical vs Admin, Teachers vs Governors, Directors vs stakeholders and so on. Asking people to try to critique their own assumptions often results in a fuller understanding of the problem before the group. This has been part of the Peace Process in various bodies in the North of Ireland- resuing people from entrenched position that have resulted in serious injury and death.

That is very useful work, of course, but I do feel that this is a rather different case (no pun intended).

Also, can I just repeat that my introduction of Occam's Razor was specifically in the context of whether or not the SY investigation was a corrupt whitewash, not as some way of deciding how likely it is that the McCanns are innocent or guilty of some crime! It wouldn't be at all appropriate to apply it to that!

So I do not see it as a less useful  alternative to your Null Hypothesis method, which is doing something else completely.
All cases of fixed ideas are similar with similar mental mechanisms in play.

The Null Hypothesis also works for deciding whether there is evidence for a Police Whitewash. Occams Razor is much misunderstood and does not actually say what it has come to mean in everyday discussion, whereas the null hypothesis works in any situation.

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Re: Madeleine McCann search to enter 'substantial phase' of activity

Post by stillsloppingout on 27.05.14 18:22

@TozerDerry wrote:
@PeterMac wrote:
@TozerDerry wrote:. .  That would involve this forum having a section with the intention to seek out every reason why the McCanns were innocent as driven snow . .
Excellent post.
The only problem is when we actually try it
1  The parents told the truth and assisted the Police in every way they could  -  errrm, No.
2  The parents actively searched the entire village looking for their missing child   - errrm, No.
3  The parents can prove that they were eternaly vigilant about the safety and security of their children and although they were not with them, ensured the doors and windows were secure. - errrm, No.

Not quite so easy !
You miss the entire point. It is necessary to drop the mindset of guilt and change to innocent (or vice versa for another site.) You are in the position of a Cold Fusion Scientist still looking to prove Cold Fusion rather than disprove it.

By continually seeking support for a theory (even by stating it negatively) it continues to allow confirmation bias which is the problem. this is not specific to this case but to any problem that is difficult to sort out.
I think when the time warrants it , until then we will leave the McCanns to work out there own defence !!!!

As over the years they / there supporters have picked up on posts for there own ends . 

I years ago, informed the 3as site via a PM, that  THE Documentary was going to be made in Portugal , it was also news to them !!!

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