The Complete Mystery of Madeleine McCann™
Hi,

A very warm welcome to The Complete Mystery of Madeleine McCann™ forum.

Please log in, or register to view all the forums, then settle in and start chatting with us!

Enjoy your day,

Jill Havern
Forum owner

A 22% fall in violent crime in one year...how?

View previous topic View next topic Go down

A 22% fall in violent crime in one year...how?

Post by jack19921 on 28.04.14 3:34

According to the 2012/13 Crime Survey of England and Wales (which is generally believed to be more trustworthy than police recorded crime as it includes interviews with 35,000 people who's crimes may never have been reported to police), there has been a fall in Violent Crime of 22% in the 12 months to December 2013 compared with the previous year! 

There is more precise data on the Office of National Statistics website, where they show results of interviews in each quarter. It showed that the decrease in Violent Crime occurred between the April-June 2013 quarter and the July-September 2013 quarter, when violence decreased by 27.63%! I find this very difficult to believe unless there has been some kind of divine intervention or something put in the water supply! 

The interviews which took place in the April-June 2013 quarter would cover all crime experienced between April 2012 to June 2013 as the interviewer asks the respondent what crime they experienced in the previous 12 months plus the month of interview (so 13 months altogether). So the July-September interviews would cover crimes experienced between July 2012 and September 2013.

Falls as big as this in Violent Crime are not mirrored in any recorded crime figures and the recent Cardiff University study on people being treated for violent incidents in A&Es showed a more modest 12% fall in violence in 2013 compared with 2012, when they recorded at 14% fall.

Does anyone have any ideas of how a widely trusted survey could record such a big fall in violence in such a short space of time? None of the current theories about less people drinking alcohol or lead being removed from petrol can explain such a sudden change. The technical notes for the survey say that they've changed the sample size by about 10,000 and made a few other complicated changes but this still wouldn't explain the sudden fall between Apr-June and July-Sept.


This link includes the Crime Survey documents, including the quarterly interview statistics:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-328141

jack19921

Posts : 1
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-04-28

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: A 22% fall in violent crime in one year...how?

Post by russiandoll on 28.04.14 14:36

Not sure where to post this....a female teacher has died after being stabbed at Corpus Christi R C College in Leeds, West Yorkshire.
  15 yr old male student arrested and in police custody.

____________________



             The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate,
contrived and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive and
unrealistic.
~John F. Kennedy


russiandoll

Posts : 3942
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2011-09-11

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: A 22% fall in violent crime in one year...how?

Post by Cristobell on 28.04.14 14:57

@jack19921 wrote:According to the 2012/13 Crime Survey of England and Wales (which is generally believed to be more trustworthy than police recorded crime as it includes interviews with 35,000 people who's crimes may never have been reported to police), there has been a fall in Violent Crime of 22% in the 12 months to December 2013 compared with the previous year! 

There is more precise data on the Office of National Statistics website, where they show results of interviews in each quarter. It showed that the decrease in Violent Crime occurred between the April-June 2013 quarter and the July-September 2013 quarter, when violence decreased by 27.63%! I find this very difficult to believe unless there has been some kind of divine intervention or something put in the water supply! 

The interviews which took place in the April-June 2013 quarter would cover all crime experienced between April 2012 to June 2013 as the interviewer asks the respondent what crime they experienced in the previous 12 months plus the month of interview (so 13 months altogether). So the July-September interviews would cover crimes experienced between July 2012 and September 2013.

Falls as big as this in Violent Crime are not mirrored in any recorded crime figures and the recent Cardiff University study on people being treated for violent incidents in A&Es showed a more modest 12% fall in violence in 2013 compared with 2012, when they recorded at 14% fall.

Does anyone have any ideas of how a widely trusted survey could record such a big fall in violence in such a short space of time? None of the current theories about less people drinking alcohol or lead being removed from petrol can explain such a sudden change. The technical notes for the survey say that they've changed the sample size by about 10,000 and made a few other complicated changes but this still wouldn't explain the sudden fall between Apr-June and July-Sept.


This link includes the Crime Survey documents, including the quarterly interview statistics:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-328141
They are all chilled out, smoking weed  winkwink

Cristobell

Posts : 2436
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2011-10-12

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: A 22% fall in violent crime in one year...how?

Post by ultimaThule on 28.04.14 15:04

@russiandoll wrote:Not sure where to post this....a female teacher has died after being stabbed at Corpus Christi R C College in Leeds, West Yorkshire.
  15 yr old male student arrested and in police custody.
May I suggest you create a new thread in 'News Topics' as there are likely to be a number of issues related to this case which will be worthy of debate, rd.

ultimaThule

Posts : 3355
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-09-18

View user profile

Back to top Go down

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum