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Actual time of disappearance.

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Actual time of disappearance.

Post by diatribe on 17.02.14 20:24

Undoubtably, this subject has been discussed many times on this forum prior to my arrival and if considered to be a wasted new topic, please transfer to the appropriate thread. Although I didn't pay much attention to this case back in 2007, I do tend to remember various people discussing it at the time. I also remember watching a couple of clippings relating to it when I still used to occasionally follow news bulletins and my immediate instinct was that this kid 'disappeared' long before, perhaps even a day or so earlier than the official time being portrayed.

Perhaps others may be able to bring me up to speed on the reliability of independent witness accounts outside of the McCann circle who did actually see her prior to her reported disappearance on the 3rd. inst May 2007. I obviously don't subscribe to a kidnapping after the time line of 9.0 pm and by the same token, I also don't believe that any form of hurried disposal of a body occurred at that time either. My firm belief is that Madeleine 'disappeared' prior to the McCann's materialising at the Tapas bar circa 8-30 pm. on the 3rd. inst. May.

However, I do have a problem with my time line if it can be positively proven that Madeleine was seen at circa 6.0 pm at the Creche. Although not impossible and far more plausible than a later kidnapping, this only allowed for under two and a half hrs. for Madeleine to have died in the apt. and her body disposed of. Its a lot to have happened in such a short space of time, particularly in the vein that the body has never been recovered which tends to show that some thought was put into hiding it. There is also the dogs scenting traces of cadavar which again would tend to indicate that Madeleine's body would have been in the apt. for some time at least.

So, if my hypothesis is correct and the evil deed was completed prior to 8.30 pm, Madeleine would have had to have died, laid in the apt. for some time and the body successfully buried all in a space of just over a couple of hrs. Again, the scenting of the dogs casts doubt on Mr. Goncala's theory that an accident occurred whilst the McCanns were dining at the Tapas bar and the body was hastily disposed of between 8.30 pm and 10.pm .Therefore, I think that we can rule out any form of accident, because as previously stated on other threads, had this been the case there would have been no need to fabricate stories of jemmied windows, doors left unlocked, abductors etc. This would also mean that the flat chested one, instead of finding whooshing curtains upon her return to the apt. at 10.0 pm, would have discovered Madeleine's body. Indeed, Kate McCann herself has stated that had there been an accident, why would they have needed to dispose of the body Of course it is possible that Mr. Goncala in giving the McCann's benefit of the doubt when describing an accident, already had libel on his mind.
 
 Nevertheless, I'm beginning to have doubts about the time span of 6-8.30 pm and am wondering if my first instincts were correct after all, ie, that Madeleine's disappearance occurred much earlier than my hypothesis allows for, possibly even up to a couple of days.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by ultimaThule on 17.02.14 20:37

I would suggest you take a leaf out of AR's book and 'draw it back to zero', with zero being the last time Madeleine McCann was seen by a wholly independent witness prior to her departure to Portugal. 

IMO the PJ, and Dr Goncalo Amaral in particular, were far too kind to the McCanns and I have no doubt that had the PJ been given all of the information they requested from their British counterparts, and had he not been summarily removed from the case after a few brief months, Dr Amaral would have found it necessary to modify his thesis.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by diatribe on 17.02.14 20:52

@ultimaThule wrote:I would suggest you take a leaf out of AR's book and 'draw it back to zero', with zero being the last time Madeleine McCann was seen by a wholly independent witness prior to her departure to Portugal. 


But surely it can actually be proven that Madeleine did in fact arrive in Portugal because she featured in that video clip where Gerry was stating 'he wasn't f -- kin' here to enjoy himself.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by canada12 on 17.02.14 20:58

Surely the police can check airline passenger records to see if there was a reservation made for Madeleine McCann to fly to Faro. She was over the age of 2, so while the twins might have been listed as "infants" and possibly not have had seats on the plane, Madeleine would definitely have needed a seat and a ticket. Admittedly this would not prove Madeleine was actually in Portugal as her parents could have taken another child in her place, but I tend to think she was there, and alive, for at least a day, and probably more than a day. That would be the starting point for me - not the bus video, which could have been taken at any time prior to the PDL holiday.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by Guest on 17.02.14 21:09

@diatribe wrote:
@ultimaThule wrote:I would suggest you take a leaf out of AR's book and 'draw it back to zero', with zero being the last time Madeleine McCann was seen by a wholly independent witness prior to her departure to Portugal. 


But surely it can actually be proven that Madeleine did in fact arrive in Portugal because she featured in that video clip where Gerry was stating 'he wasn't f -- kin' here to enjoy himself.
***
We meanwhile have statements from OC drivers picking up and delivering back guests in a mini VAN.
The video = a BUS
There's now way looking out of the window and see WHERE they are.
There's also still [IMO, of course] the question WHY such a non-complimental video was aired worldwide within short time after her disappearance.

I am NOT saying, she wasn't there.
Just that there seems to be no real proof, so far and inasmuch as I can see.

In fact, I do think she was in PDL but ended her maybe sorry little life sooner than May 3.
IMO

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by diatribe on 17.02.14 21:38

I would think she was almost certainly in Portugal, certainly if the dogs were correct in respect to a death in the apt, because otherwise that would mean that the McCanns not only killed their daughter, Madeleine, prior to departure, they also killed another child in Portugal to cover up the death of their own child in the UK.

I think that really would be a conspiracy theory too far. big grin

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by Guest on 17.02.14 21:56

Yes.

Most of my early theories were thrown into the bin after the dogs came in ...

IMO she's dead.
IMO her parents [and maybe some others] know that.
IMO they also know where she could be found.
IMO the police [PT and UK] seriously suspect[ed] that.
IMO same police are now closing in - in the first instance by eliminating ALL other possibilities.
IMO this is NOT a whitewash, but a slow and laborious investigation into the truth.
IMO I can hold my breath until they get there.




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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by HelenMeg on 17.02.14 22:19

Châtelaine wrote:Yes.

Most of my early theories were thrown into the bin after the dogs came in ...

IMO she's dead.
IMO her parents [and maybe some others] know that.
IMO they also know where she could be found.
IMO the police [PT and UK] seriously suspect[ed] that.
IMO same police are now closing in - in the first instance by eliminating ALL other possibilities.
IMO this is NOT a whitewash, but a slow and laborious investigation into the truth.
IMO I can hold my breath until they get there.



Yes I think I agree with all of these IMOs, well, apart from the final one which is proving difficult, but no choice really

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by sharonl on 17.02.14 22:22

The only sightings of Madeleine that week were by nanny Cat Baker who was allegedly (according to one news report) known to members of the Tapas 7, I would guess though that it was the Wright family that she associated with. There were contradictions in Cats statement and she was very close to the McCanns, even visiting them at home in Rothley. Cat also has a Facebook friend of Jon Corners daughter. The only other nanny to claim having seen Madeleine was Charlotte Pennington who arrived at the Ocean Club on the same transport bus as Jane Tanner. Charlotte, witneesed a lot of things that backed up the McCanns abduction theory, always being in the right place at the right time. She is now an actress who works for a company called The Killing game.

The only other nanny to see Madeleine was Rhiannon Fretter who said something like, I saw one little girl with Cat, just briefly, that may have been Madelene.

Phil Edmonds, claimed to have photographed Madeleine in the play area. Phil is the nephew of Magaret Oppenheimer (Hodge) and co-director of her Stemcor Company. Hodge works alongside Lord Levy who raises funds for high level political campaigns, Blair, Brown etc. in 2007 Levy was arrested and Blair interviewed under caution in the cash for honours case. Patrons of Ambassador Kate McCanns Missing People and associated PACT charity are known for making large loans to Brown and Blair's political campaigns.

Conclusion: no credible sightings of Madeleine by an independent witness

No Maddie DNA was found in the apartment, but then it was suggested that all the children were sleeping in one apartment. That might explain Madeleines bed having not been slept in. One person was away from the Tapas each night, was that the childminder?


Question: How often do you see someone going on holiday, take out a video camera and film a child boarding the plane and then again on the minibus to the resort,


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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by Guest on 17.02.14 22:37

canada12 there is definitely a thread on here that the print outs of flight are attached. Sorry I can't find it from my phone.
It still doesn't prove that Madeleine herself travelled I suppose.

The gorrods are important imo.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by diatribe on 17.02.14 22:44

@sharonl wrote:


Question:  How often do you see someone going on holiday, take out a video camera and film a child boarding the plane and then again on the minibus to the resort,  


Not often, unless of course they're japanese, they film everything that moves and most of what doesn't.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by Guest on 17.02.14 22:49

@sharonl wrote:


Question:  How often do you see someone going on holiday, take out a video camera and film a child boarding the plane and then again on the minibus to the resort,  


And then never use it again. I for one don't believe she was there prior to 3/5. At my most paranoid I can go 50/50 on whether she ever existed in the first place.

Where is the CCTV from either airport?

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by sharonl on 17.02.14 23:01

Clay Regazzoni wrote:
@sharonl wrote:


Question:  How often do you see someone going on holiday, take out a video camera and film a child boarding the plane and then again on the minibus to the resort,  


And then never use it again. I for one don't believe she was there prior to 3/5. At my most paranoid I can go 50/50 on whether she ever existed in the first place.

Where is the CCTV from either airport?



I believe that she was there, they went to Millenium Restautant on the Saturday evening and ate breakfast out, as a family of Five on the Sunday Morning.  After that, the started eating breakfast and lunch in their own apartment even when the tapas 7 and all the other children were taking lunch on David Payne's balcony. At the same time Kate and Gerry started entering and leaving the apartment by different doors, a very strange custom.

What is more is that after the news broke, Cat Baker claims that she met the McCanns at breakfast. They were back out, eating in the restaurants.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by diatribe on 17.02.14 23:04

Clay Regazzoni wrote:

 At my most paranoid I can go 50/50 on whether she ever existed in the first place.

Even in my most sanest moment, I find it difficult to believe that any of this charade ever happened, let alone is still transpiring. It has to be the biggest hoax played on mankind since the illusion of democracy.

Why they've even got people discussing it on internet websites.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by Guest on 17.02.14 23:10

@diatribe wrote:
Clay Regazzoni wrote:

 At my most paranoid I can go 50/50 on whether she ever existed in the first place.

Even in my most sanest moment, I find it difficult to believe that any of this charade ever happened, let alone is still transpiring. It has to be the biggest hoax played on mankind since the illusion of democracy.

Why they've even got people discussing it on internet websites.

My original view, which I veered away from, is now my current view again. The whole thing is some weird kind of public/private PsyOp.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by diatribe on 18.02.14 21:00

This is part of the deposition of Catriona Sisile Baker.


''On Thursday the 3rd of May 2007, I remember Gerry having accompanied Madeleine to the club between 9h15 and 9h20 in the morning. I do not remember who came to pick her up for lunch but after she returned in the afternoon for a dive/swim. These activities were realized with the other children. On this day I remember that we sailed and I saw friends of the McCanns on the beach, David and Jane. Around 14h45 Madeleine returned to the Minis Club on top of the reception but I do not remember who accompanied her. This afternoon we went swimming. Kate went to get Madeleine from the Tapas Bar area and according to what I remember she was wearing sporting clothes and I assumed that she was practicing some form of athletics. It was around 15h25/18h00. I think that Gerry was playing tennis. ''

How reliable is this witness, because if she is believable, Madeleine was in her company on the afternoon of the 3rd. May 2007.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by Guest on 18.02.14 21:19

Châtelaine wrote:Yes.

Most of my early theories were thrown into the bin after the dogs came in ...

IMO she's dead.
IMO her parents [and maybe some others] know that.
IMO they also know where she could be found.
IMO the police [PT and UK] seriously suspect[ed] that.
IMO same police are now closing in - in the first instance by eliminating ALL other possibilities.
IMO this is NOT a whitewash, but a slow and laborious investigation into the truth.
IMO I can hold my breath until they get there.



Please be aware: it's an investigation into an abduction so far. As soon as all venues for an abduction have been closed, the investigation will turn into a murder investigation before you can pronounce the name Maddie

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by Guest on 18.02.14 21:21

@diatribe wrote:
Clay Regazzoni wrote:

 At my most paranoid I can go 50/50 on whether she ever existed in the first place.

Even in my most sanest moment, I find it difficult to believe that any of this charade ever happened, let alone is still transpiring. It has to be the biggest hoax played on mankind since the illusion of democracy.

Why they've even got people discussing it on internet websites.
Nah, c'mon: how about Christendom?

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by Smokeandmirrors on 18.02.14 21:22

There are a few very plausible theories about estimated times of disappearance based on available information that are worth the police in both camps looking very closely at. But throughout the whole 7 yrs, what I have never been able to resolve in my own mind, and what I believe to be the basis of the "pro" side is, how on earth could a parent carry on as "normal" up until the official announcement of the disappearance? This, for me, has always been the biggest obstacle whilst following the case.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by diatribe on 18.02.14 21:37

@Portia wrote:Please be aware: it's an investigation into an abduction so far. As soon as all venues for an abduction have been closed, the investigation will turn into a murder investigation before you can pronounce the name Maddie

I thought it was an investigation into the disappearance of a child with various options available, including that of a kidnapping. I can't see how it can turn into a murder investigation until it is proven that Madeleine is in fact dead.

That's why the McCanns are so insistent she is still alive and persist in attempting to gag others who forward the hypothesis she is dead.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by diatribe on 18.02.14 21:44

@Smokeandmirrors wrote: what I have never been able to resolve in my own mind, and what I believe to be the basis of the "pro" side is, how on earth could a parent carry on as "normal" up until the official announcement of the disappearance? This, for me, has always been the biggest obstacle whilst following the case.

Well, Smoke, if it was either that or face imprisonment, loss of their other two children, the ending of their careers, probable bankrupcy culminating in the loss of their home, a life as pariahs etc. etc. etc.. Which would you consider to be the less palatable, particularly if you were an ambitious and mercenary person.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by Smokeandmirrors on 18.02.14 22:01

@diatribe wrote:
@Smokeandmirrors wrote: what I have never been able to resolve in my own mind, and what I believe to be the basis of the "pro" side is, how on earth could a parent carry on as "normal" up until the official announcement of the disappearance? This, for me, has always been the biggest obstacle whilst following the case.

Well, Smoke, if it was either that or face imprisonment, loss of their other two children, the ending of their careers, probable bankrupcy culminating in the loss of their home, a life as pariahs etc. etc. etc.. Which would you consider to be the less palatable, particularly if you were an ambitious and mercenary person.

Yes indeed. There are people wired completely differently on an emotional level. I personally cannot resolve this, being the way I am wired. Some can carry on regardless of the circumstances whatever they are. It's just this is the one thing for me personally, which occasionally puts a shadow of doubt in my mind. Some people can maintain strength for an end goal, others cannot put up any pretence at all. I freely confess to being in the latter group.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by Woofer on 18.02.14 22:04

Clay Regazzoni wrote:
@sharonl wrote:


Question:  How often do you see someone going on holiday, take out a video camera and film a child boarding the plane and then again on the minibus to the resort,  


And then never use it again. I for one don't believe she was there prior to 3/5. At my most paranoid I can go 50/50 on whether she ever existed in the first place.

Where is the CCTV from either airport?

...........  that`s if it was a video camera - could it have been a mobile phone (or weren`t they around in 2007) ?

If it was a video camera, there must have been loads more filming done on it.  Shame the PJ didn`t ask for all the cameras immediately.

And .........  how odd that the video of the airport bus was placed on the web so soon - almost as if to say `look, she was definitely there`.  Much too obvious and convenient IMO.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by ultimaThule on 18.02.14 22:19

@diatribe wrote:
@Portia wrote:Please be aware: it's an investigation into an abduction so far. As soon as all venues for an abduction have been closed, the investigation will turn into a murder investigation before you can pronounce the name Maddie

I thought it was an investigation into the disappearance of a child with various options available, including that of a kidnapping. I can't see how it can turn into a murder investigation until it is proven that Madeleine is in fact dead.

That's why the McCanns are so insistent she is still alive and persist in attempting to gag others who forward the hypothesis she is dead.
There have been many investigations into missing people which have culminated in successful prosecutions for murder without the body of the victim being recovered.

The only reason the McCanns have persisted with the charade of pretending the child may be alive is greed.

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Re: Actual time of disappearance.

Post by diatribe on 18.02.14 22:53

@ultimaThule wrote:
There have been many investigations into missing people which have culminated in successful prosecutions for murder without the body of the victim being recovered.

The only reason the McCanns have persisted with the charade of pretending the child may be alive is greed.
I agree on both counts although with the former, there's usually a longer period of time lapse, although not always, or there is some kind of evidence that harm may have come to the missing person.

The PJ by shelving the case back in 2008, although not being able to officially proclaim her to be dead, had almost certainly formed that opinion. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, the Met. police are thus far not prepared to accept the fact that she is dead, not publicly anyway.

What is your opinion of this child minder who states that she was with Madeleine on the afternoon of the 3rd May 2007, do you think she is a reliable witness. If not, I wouldn't think she'd require a lot of leaning on to tell the truth.

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