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Met Office forecast: Rainfall in Dec, Jan and Feb likely to be 'below average'

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Met Office forecast: Rainfall in Dec, Jan and Feb likely to be 'below average'

Post by Tony Bennett on 11.02.14 1:04

This is what the weather experts at the Met office said on 15 November about the likely amount of rainfall during December, January and February:


QUOTE
  
For the December-January-February period as a whole there is a slight signal for below-average precipitation.

The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 15%

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Re: Met Office forecast: Rainfall in Dec, Jan and Feb likely to be 'below average'

Post by whatliesbehindthesofa on 11.02.14 1:20

@Tony Bennett wrote:This is what the weather experts at the Met office said on 15 November about the likely amount of rainfall during December, January and February:


QUOTE
  
For the December-January-February period as a whole there is a slight signal for below-average precipitation.

The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 15%

Ha, worse than Michael Fish!

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Re: Met Office forecast: Rainfall in Dec, Jan and Feb likely to be 'below average'

Post by tigger on 11.02.14 6:44

I had high hopes of the forecasting skills here in NL.

How could I not with the Koninklijke Nederlandse meteorologisch Instituut, royal and everything,

I now believe they simply have a man on the roof who passes on the weather he's experiencing.

They're right a good deal less than 50% of the time. Tossing a coin would give better results.

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Re: Met Office forecast: Rainfall in Dec, Jan and Feb likely to be 'below average'

Post by PeterMac on 11.02.14 8:57

Below average - but for where ?
Bangladesh during the Monsoon ?

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Re: Met Office forecast: Rainfall in Dec, Jan and Feb likely to be 'below average'

Post by Tony Bennett on 11.02.14 9:19

@PeterMac wrote:
Below average - but for where ?
For the UK.

Here is the UK government's Minister for the Environment opining about a future of dry winters (!) because of 'Climate Change':

QUOTE

Hosepipe bans and other water restrictions may be imposed as far north as Yorkshire this spring [2012] if the prolonged dry weather continues, the Environment Agency has said. The south-east of England and East Anglia are already in the grip of the UK‘s worst drought in 30 years. Urging people to save water, Caroline Spelman, the environment secretary, said a recent drought summit had highlighted the threat posed by another dry winter and more areas were likely to be affected unless there was significant rainfall in the coming months. Spelman has said that climate change could mean drought is ”the new normal" and has urged water companies to produce long-term plans for saving water.

—Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, 12 March 2012

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/mar/12/hosepipe-bans-drought-water-uk

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Re: Met Office forecast: Rainfall in Dec, Jan and Feb likely to be 'below average'

Post by aquila on 11.02.14 9:26

Aren't Water companies the biggest consumers of water due to the fact they don't sufficently repair/maintain anything but are there solely to satisfy shareholders?

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Re: Met Office forecast: Rainfall in Dec, Jan and Feb likely to be 'below average'

Post by Guest on 12.02.14 12:48

As you may suspect, I'm quite interested in motor sports. Most Formula 1 teams use the (apparently World's best) French Met Office's services for weather prediction, although they also use local "runners" armed with mobile phones etc. Despite being located only five or ten minutes from the action, the frequency with which these guys still get it wrong leads me to believe that weather forecasting, of any nature and for any future timescale, is a complete mug's game. You'd stand an equal chance pulling numbers out of a hat, I reckon.


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