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Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

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Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by suzyjohnson on 23.11.13 23:50

Suppose for a moment that MM had an accident at some time prior to 8.30 pm on 3rd May, and suppose her parents then came up with a plan to cover this up (during the time that they both had alibis at the tapas restaurant). Is it possible that they could do so without involving any of the rest of the group?

If we assume that the tapas seven were telling the truth, what does that tell us?

MM was collected from the creche at 5.30 pm and went back to apartment 5A with her family. GM then went to play tennis from 6 pm. MM stayed in 5A with her mother and the twins, KM went to take a shower.

At 6.30 pm approx DP goes to the apartment, he has been asked to do so by GM. He states he sees all the children 'dressed in white' so no peach or pink top and shorts or pink pyjamas either. If DP is telling the truth, then an accident must have happened after 6.30 pm. 

GM returned from tennis shortly after 7 pm. GM and KM state they settled the children for the night, and had a glass of wine before going round to the Tapas at 8.30 pm, KM also states she had a bath during this hour and a half. 

If there were an accident and a plan to conceal, then, presumably, GM would have wanted to wait until it went dark. Also, and crucially, he would need to wait until all the group were at the tapas restaurant before making a move because there would be no way out of 5A without them seeing him as they walked round

Just before 9 pm MO goes to hurry the Paynes up as they are late for dinner every night. He meets them on the road, and then decides to do a listening check on the children outside their windows. He returns to the tapas, now everyone has arrived. MO comments that he thinks it's strange that GM sets off to check the minute he arrives back as MO has just told him there was no sound at the apartment.

GM goes to the apartment at 9.04 pm. Sometime before 9.15 pm he meets JW in the street. JT walks round shortly after and makes a comment to the effect that GM had already taken a long time, probably watching football. JT states that she saw GM and JW talking. If GM saw her also then he would know that she would be soon walking back the same way.

Suppose he returned to the tapas at this point, what would he have said when MO ten minutes later unexpectedly offered to go and check on KM's behalf? It would seem difficult to come up with a reason why he could not. Had MO discovered MM missing, presumably he would have alerted her parents and not searched the entire apartment himself?

MO goes back to the tapas at 9.35 pm, ROB is still round at his own apartment, at 9.45 pm JT goes to take over so that ROB can eat his meal, then ROB is back at the tapas for 9.50 pm. If GM were involved in MM's disappearance he would have had no opportunity to move her until now .......

KM herself goes round to 5A at 10 pm, perhaps she does not know that GM has not yet been able to carry out his part of the plan?   

I'm looking to see what each member of the tapas group said where they were and what they did immediately after the alarm was raised

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by suzyjohnson on 24.11.13 0:13

1) DW remained at the table at the tapas restaurant
2) JT was round at her apartment looking after her ill child

The following went straight round to 5A

3) M0 'Then, the whole group went to Madeleine's bedroom and checked that the twins were sleeping OK' 
4) DP 'Then everybody went to the apartment occupied by Madeleine's family. He remembers comments concerning the fact that the window and the shutters were open, while they had remained closed throughout the week'.
5) FP 'Immediately, they organised search groups, either in the apartment thinking that she could be hidden, or outside, which resulted in nothing, even with the help of the employees' 
6) RMO ' We all got up then and went with her to see. The surrounding area was combed after having checked that Madeleine was not hiding in the apartment. The twins carried on sleeping. They didn't move'
7) ROB 'she came towards our table, shouting that Madeleine had disappeared. We all went out, running, and with the help of a few people we decided to search in the area around the apartment blocks'


This information is from the first statements. It would be interesting to see what each did in more detail ..... was there an opportunity for GM to run towards the beach at this point, while all the searching was around the Ocean Club?

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by suzyjohnson on 24.11.13 1:46

Rogatory interviews

RMO 'then we all just leapt up from the table and went up to her, followed her and Gerry, erm up to their apartment and erm and I remember sort of standing at the bottom of the steps, I didn’t go into the apartment, standing at the bottom of the steps by the patio doors and I think Matt and Russell might have been having a look in the garden, erm and then Matt and I went round and went to our apartment to check on Grace, erm and she was there, erm and then Matt sort of went back and I think he went off to sort of look a bit more and search and he, he went down to call the Police at the main reception of the Ocean Club, erm and I just stayed near our apartment really'


DP 'I’m sure we went into the apartment, just looked and you know, incredulously you know well where, err where could she be, you know, you know we just looked in the obvious err places and then err you know obviously Kate and Gerry were just completely, you know, hysterical err you know at this stage. Err and then we just, you know then we went to do the sweeps around the place and I said, as I said before, I went up to look at our apartment to check, check the girls were alright and you know, and the actual order that this all happened, you know'
DP 'I think people find it really difficult generally to say exactly what they did and when. Err but as I say we went err we went to the apartment and had a look round and then err I had a look quite earlier on to see err whether the, err girls were alright. I then at some stage went back to see Dianne and say look can you just leave the table, just go back to the apartment and then I had the sweep around the swimming pool where the, err the kiddies pool is, I went to, I just had a quick look at the tennis courts and just basically swept around the, the area just to make, make sure you know that, ah this can’t, can’t be what’s happened'


ROB ' I didn’t go into the apartment directly after the alarm had been raised, I don’t think, we just sort of got to the, the exit, some people had gone in and some of us kind of formulated ‘Right, where shall we’, ‘We’ll have a quick look around while they’re checking the apartment’. 
ROB 'so after we searched immediately around the, the complex, erm, and we hadn’t found her, I then went, I think around the back, or the front really, where the car park and the apartments are, to the main road, dropping down into the, into the town centre, erm, I forget the name of it, and went down round the back of the tennis courts, looking in there, round the back of the Baptista Supermarket where there’s a car park area and a bit of derelict ground, erm, and then into the Shopping Centre'


MO 'then there was just a blur as everybody then just ran off from the table. Erm, then everybody I think left the table, I mean, I just remember being behind Dave as he was, and Gerry, as they were running, erm, Russell I think (inaudible) a bit behind and so we all ran. If you ask whether we went, you know, into the apartment and I'm almost a hundred percent sure we didn't go to the apartment, we were, because it was just so awful, so Gerry and Kate and maybe Dave, I'm not sure, but went sort of to the bottom of the steps and they sort of went in, erm, and as soon as they sort of said, you know, she's gone and everything, all hell broke loose, we went round to check firstly on Grace to make sure she was okay and we dropped Rachael up there, telling her that she wasn't to move'


FP 'So we all were sort of racing behind Kate and Gerry, erm, back up to the apartment.  Erm, we didn’t go in at that point, I think Kate, erm, Gerry must have rushed in with Kate and pretty much immediately Dave, erm, Matt, Russell and myself split up in four different directions just to do a search, you know, again assuming that she must have just wandered off.  Erm, tut, so, you know, I don’t know which way they went, but I, I went round the back of, erm, tut, well this way around the back of the apartments and round the back of the tennis courts on the main road and then cut down in front of the Baptista Supermarket and back up, that was the route I did”.


  

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by ultimaThule on 24.11.13 6:15

Were we to suppose that the Tapas seven are telling the truth, what material difference would this make to the case and in what way does it differ from the theory you posited 4 days ago in your ongoing thread 'Being in two places at once'?

In the CMTV programme aired in Portugal recently,  Gonçalo Amaral said "As far as accurate times are concerned, there are only three: The time at which they pick up Maddie from the crèche, which is at 5.30 p.m., the time of the payment at the restaurant by the Irish family, which is at 9.22 or 9.27 p.m., and the time of the phone call to GNR, which is at 10.47 p.m. From there on, nothing is certain."

Having heard it from the horse's mouth, so to speak, that any of the Tapas nine could have been doing anything at any time anywhere during the hours in question, I fail to see what can be gained from continuing to move the principal players around as if they were pieces on a chessboard in accordance with their disproved accounts of the events of the evening of 3 May 2007. 

For those who are inclined to the view that Madeleine's body was removed from 5A while a game of musical chairs was enacted in the Tapas Bar, this is the most plausible theory I have read to date:
http://unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.com.au/p/theory-english.html

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by suzyjohnson on 24.11.13 10:19

I wanted to see if it was possible for the McCanns to have covered up MM's accidental death on the night of 3rd of May without the assistance of any (or the majority) of the rest of the tapas group because clearly the McCanns had alibis from them for most of the evening. 

One of the reasons people believe the McCanns are innocent is because it's difficult to believe that the others were involved in a cover up too. How and why did the McCanns gain their assistance? I wanted to see in detail how the evidence holds up if we assume that the evidence from the tapas seven is the truth. And I would be particularly interested to see what PeterMac thinks about this.

It didn't start out as the same reasoning as the earlier thread but because it now seems fairly clear to me that GM would have had difficulty removing MM prior to KM's alert, (without any of the tapas group either running into him or noticing him missing from the table) I wanted to look at the group statements to see whether it was possible to have moved her amidst the chaos at 10 pm.

Looking at the rogatory statements, it appears that of the seven, only DP actually went into apartment 5A immediately following KM's alert, so, in theory, while KM and DP were on the balcony, and the rest of the group, ROB, RMO, MO and FP were waiting around the area of the patio steps, it is possible that GM could have left carrying MM via the front door. Nothing said in the statements above contradicts that, in theory, that could have happened. In that case only DP, if any of them, would know.

I have read your link before UltimaThule, I can't remember the details of it but I do remember thinking at the time that there were a few reasons I didn't think it was what happened.

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Over The Hill on 24.11.13 10:54

@ultimaThule wrote:For those who are inclined to the view that Madeleine's body was removed from 5A while a game of musical chairs was enacted in the Tapas Bar...
orchestrated by whom and with how many of the T9 in the loop (as opposed to being involved in the game without knowing it)?

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Guest on 24.11.13 15:00

The problem is that, even if Maddie was genuinely abducted by a stranger while they were all at dinner, the McCann's strange behaviour since, along with issues such as why the last photo was not available until three weeks later, should still have the T7 asking the same kind of questions that we do on this forum. Maybe they have and have received satisfactory (to them) answers? We can't possibly know.

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Swannie on 24.11.13 15:43

@suzyjohnson wrote:1) DW remained at the table at the tapas restaurant
2) JT was round at her apartment looking after her ill child

The following went straight round to 5A

3) M0 'Then, the whole group went to Madeleine's bedroom and checked that the twins were sleeping oK.' 
4) DP 'Then everybody went to the apartment occupied by Madeleine's family. He remembers comments concerning the fact that the window and the shutters were open, while they had remained closed throughout the week'.
5) FP 'Immediately, they organised search groups, either in the apartment thinking that she could be hidden, or outside, which resulted in nothing, even with the help of the employees.' 
6) RMO ' We all got up then and went with her to see. The surrounding area was combed after having checked that Madeleine was not hiding in the apartment. The twins carried on sleeping. They didn't move.'
Well, certainly none of the group seemed to consider that M had been abducted, despite hearing K state, "They've taken her," since not one of them rushed off to their apartment to make sure their own children were safe and hadn't also been 'taken'....... As bad as K leaving the twins behind in 5A, when she was supposedly immediately convinced that an 'abductor' had just removed M..........

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Daisy on 24.11.13 16:21

Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

If I hadn't read their PJ & Rog statements, I suppose I'd allow myself to suppose. Alas... it's all there to see and between them, they definitely did not tell the truth.

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Mirage on 24.11.13 16:27

@Swannie wrote:
@suzyjohnson wrote:1) DW remained at the table at the tapas restaurant
2) JT was round at her apartment looking after her ill child

The following went straight round to 5A

3) M0 'Then, the whole group went to Madeleine's bedroom and checked that the twins were sleeping oK.' 
4) DP 'Then everybody went to the apartment occupied by Madeleine's family. He remembers comments concerning the fact that the window and the shutters were open, while they had remained closed throughout the week'.
5) FP 'Immediately, they organised search groups, either in the apartment thinking that she could be hidden, or outside, which resulted in nothing, even with the help of the employees.' 
6) RMO ' We all got up then and went with her to see. The surrounding area was combed after having checked that Madeleine was not hiding in the apartment. The twins carried on sleeping. They didn't move.'
Well, certainly none of the group seemed to consider that M had been abducted, despite hearing K state, "They've taken her," since not one of them rushed off to their apartment to make sure their own children were safe and hadn't also been 'taken'....... As bad as K leaving the twins behind in 5A, when she was supposedly immediately convinced that an 'abductor' had just removed M..........
Re the red highlight above according to David Payne's statement. From Rogatory at LP, the following: -

"...... I could see Madeleine’s bed and then you know it was just like all hell broke loose. You know we, you know we didn’t know what to do, we went running around you know

err the safety of my own you know children, you know I started, you wanted to check that your own two are alright so I, some say I ran up to our apartment and checked they were alright. Dianne had err had said, Fiona had asked Dianne to stay at the table, at the Tapas just in case err you know Madeleine wandered by or you know and thought that was the best place and I say at some stage I went back and asked Dianne to just, could you go and stay with the children.!"



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The bit I highlight in blue makes his testimony weak because he has had to be "told" he did this!! Maybe alluding to shock, to be generous. However, he asserts that the safety of children was addressed. But does he refer to just his, or all the tapas children?



 As always, more questions than answers.

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by PeterMac on 24.11.13 16:34

It is always interesting to start by assuming that a witness is telling the truth.
It was by assuming that Tanner and Gerry had told the truth that we narrowed the "Window of Opportunity" down to an absolutely impossible one minute and 20 seconds.
Which meant one of two things.
Either at least one statement was NOT the truth,
OR
There was no abduction.
(Or both.)

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Research_Reader on 24.11.13 16:50

@PeterMac wrote:... the "Window of Opportunity" down to an absolutely impossible one minute and 20 seconds.
Mr Mac, I think you know more about this than anyone, and I'm still struggling to piece together the timeline. Does your calculation assume the possibility that the 'intruder' could have been inside the apartment already when Gerry performed his last check? And then left out the front door whilst Gerry was talking on the road?

(I don't believe thats how it happened, just trying to figure out the possibilities)

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Hobs on 24.11.13 17:09

@PeterMac wrote:It is always interesting to start by assuming that a witness is telling the truth.
It was by assuming that Tanner and Gerry had told the truth that we narrowed the "Window of Opportunity" down to an absolutely impossible one minute and 20 seconds.
Which meant one of two things.
Either at least one statement was NOT the truth,
OR
There was no abduction.
(Or both.)
I agree.

Assume the subject is being truthful and listen for the expected.

Anything unexpected will there stand out and must be noted for further questioning in depth.

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by galena on 24.11.13 17:22

@ultimaThule wrote:Were we to suppose that the Tapas seven are telling the truth, what material difference would this make to the case and in what way does it differ from the theory you posited 4 days ago in your ongoing thread 'Being in two places at once'?

In the CMTV programme aired in Portugal recently,  Gonçalo Amaral said "As far as accurate times are concerned, there are only three: The time at which they pick up Maddie from the crèche, which is at 5.30 p.m., the time of the payment at the restaurant by the Irish family, which is at 9.22 or 9.27 p.m., and the time of the phone call to GNR, which is at 10.47 p.m. From there on, nothing is certain."

Having heard it from the horse's mouth, so to speak, that any of the Tapas nine could have been doing anything at any time anywhere during the hours in question, I fail to see what can be gained from continuing to move the principal players around as if they were pieces on a chessboard in accordance with their disproved accounts of the events of the evening of 3 May 2007. 

For those who are inclined to the view that Madeleine's body was removed from 5A while a game of musical chairs was enacted in the Tapas Bar, this is the most plausible theory I have read to date:
http://unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.com.au/p/theory-english.html
I find it quite surprising really that none of the independent witnesses had any idea of the exact time that various things occurred. But perhaps the police don't put much credence of times given by witnesses unless they are supported by some kind of documentation? (Presumbly the crèche kept records, the bar had receipts and the call to the police would have course been logged)  My own experience - a few years ago a policewoman knocked on my door about 12.25 pm to say that there had been a window smashed further down the street and had I heard anything? I hadn't but I could say for a certainty that the window had not been broken at 12.00pm when I arrived back in a taxi as it was a very bright moonlit night and I would have noticed the broken glass shining on the pavement - which gave them a very definite time of between 12 - and 12.25 for the incident to have occurred. They obviously completely ignored this as they later pushed a letter through my door saying there had been a break in between  5pm and 12.30, which I found a bit annoying to say the least!  (Not that it was a serious crime or that they were likely to put much time in solving it but just that they didn't take my word for it)

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by ultimaThule on 24.11.13 17:44

I'd feel a tad peeved too in that situation, galena, and would most probably have attempted to make contact with the investigating officer - although for a broken window I suspect I'd have simply told the householder and left it at that.

IMO it's not too surprising if bar/catering staff who are preoccupied with getting the evening service over can only give approximate times. With regard to other guests at the Tapas, unless the service is exceptionally slow, I rarely look at a watch or clock when I'm eating out at night.

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Guest on 24.11.13 17:54

@ultimaThule wrote: [...]
IMO it's not too surprising if bar/catering staff who are preoccupied with getting the evening service over can only give approximate times. With regard to other guests at the Tapas, unless the service is exceptionally slow, I rarely look at a watch or clock when I'm eating out at night.
***
As for catering staff: IMO Only exceptional occasions/happenings might [I say might] make them take note of the time. Or, keeping an eye on the clock when their shift is about to finish.
As for myself: When eating out, I guess I would only notice time, when it was getting much later than planned or at the actual time of leaving the restaurant. Or on returning home and watching a t.v. programme e.g.

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Genbug on 24.11.13 18:08

Châtelaine wrote:
@ultimaThule wrote: [...]
IMO it's not too surprising if bar/catering staff who are preoccupied with getting the evening service over can only give approximate times. With regard to other guests at the Tapas, unless the service is exceptionally slow, I rarely look at a watch or clock when I'm eating out at night.
***
As for catering staff: IMO Only exceptional occasions/happenings might [I say might] make them take note of the time. Or,  keeping an eye on the clock when their shift is about to finish.
As for myself: When eating out, I guess I would only notice time, when it was getting much later than planned or at the actual time of leaving the restaurant. Or on returning home and watching a t.v. programme e.g.
Agree about the catering staff. I'm a cook in a busy kitchen that is open plan to the restaurant, as in I can see who comes and goes and often call out greetings to customers. If I was asked on any given day what time a customer came in or left I wouldn't have a clue. Even if I had looked at the clock while they were there I'd have forgotten by the end of the shift. Why would I need to remember such things? As you say, only if something exceptional happened during my shift would I possibly notice the time, but again probably would have forgotten it by the end, LOL!

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by ultimaThule on 24.11.13 18:30

From the mouth of the other horses, or pen as the case may be, their collective account of events is given here:  http://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t8580-question-about-a-detail-timelines

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Penfold on 24.11.13 18:56

According to one of the dafter utterances of the pink one the T9 didn't have watches or phones on them.

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by ultimaThule on 24.11.13 18:58

@Research_Reader wrote:
@PeterMac wrote:... the "Window of Opportunity" down to an absolutely impossible one minute and 20 seconds.
Mr Mac, I think you know more about this than anyone, and I'm still struggling to piece together the timeline. Does your calculation assume the possibility that the 'intruder' could have been inside the apartment already when Gerry performed his last check? And then left out the front door whilst Gerry was talking on the road?

(I don't believe thats how it happened, just trying to figure out the possibilities)
On last month's Crimewatch edition which featured the case, the only 'window of opportunity' occurred between 9.50-9.55pm http://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t8049p30-timeline-to-watch-for-in-tonight-s-programme#186055

As I recall, the following day one tabloid led with a headline to the effect that KM may have disturbed the 'intruder', or walked in within minutes of Madeleine's removal from 5A. 

I'm still puzzing over why, on discovering the empty bed and window and shutters open, KM didn't immediately run out of the front door to see if Madeleine had fallen out of the window or whether the abductor was visible in or from the car park, or at the very least put her head through the open window to have a looksee before leaving the twins exposed to the elements and the vagaries of passers-by while she went back to the Tapas Bar?

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by ultimaThule on 24.11.13 19:08

@Penfold wrote:According to one of the dafter utterances of the pink one the T9 didn't have watches or phones on them.
The dog whisperer caused himself a few days' worth of unnecessary time spent spin  his clients out of that particular gaffe.  He's been more careful since but, nevertheless, all he's done is spun a veritable webful of holes for them to fall through and they're now stuck like files waiting to be devoured by the big fat patient spider of truth.

Go, spiderman!!! cheerleader

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by ultimaThule on 24.11.13 19:18

@Over The Hill wrote:
@ultimaThule wrote:For those who are inclined to the view that Madeleine's body was removed from 5A while a game of musical chairs was enacted in the Tapas Bar...
orchestrated by whom and with how many of the T9 in the loop (as opposed to being involved in the game without knowing it)?
That, among others, is the $64,000 dollar question.  

I suspect the pantomime was orchestrated by the McCanns in collaboration with their close friends the Paynes, with MO and ROB being given a fudged account of the truth and RO, JT, and DW being kept of the loop until some bright spark came up with the idea of a 'sighting' designed to draw attention from the actual time of removal - at which point, step forward patsy Tanner, the only emotionally needy member of T9 who was/is eager to please.

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Casey5 on 24.11.13 19:25

In a similar situation where a group of people had all left their young children alone in their apartments and one of the group ran back to the group to say her daughter had been taken from her bed then surely the very, very first thing any of them would have done would be to sprint back to their OWN apartments immediately to make sure their own kids were all ok, the men in front just in case there were multiple intruders around smilie . (I'm going by what my husband and I would have done, we would have broken the speed record for covering the distance) and I would imagine that's what most normal people would have done.
Then the best thing to do would have been to move all the kids into the Payne apartment, it being the largest, and put Diane in charge of the babysitting and then all of them should have been out ALL night searching - because every second counts when a child has gone missing. Plus I would have maybe decided to search in the direction that Jane Tanner saw the mystery man carrying a child - maybe following the trail?
None of them behaved like normal people though did they? And that's what is so suspicious.

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by ultimaThule on 24.11.13 19:37

While I endeavour not to generalise in such matters, it cannot be emphasised enough that what we are dealing with here are a group of people who are not 'normal' and whose behaviour throughout has consequently been abnormal.

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Re: Suppose the tapas seven are telling the truth...........

Post by Casey5 on 24.11.13 19:50

@ultimaThule wrote:While I endeavour not to generalise in such matters, it cannot be emphasised enough that what we are dealing with here are a group of people who are not 'normal' and whose behaviour throughout has consequently been abnormal.
That is my point, they do not act in a normal fashion and they never have. But unless all of them were involved then why didn't even one couple react as a normal couple would - and none of them did?
To me this would indicate prior knowledge of Madeleine's circumstances by all of them - except maybe Diane- because if all of them were aware of Madeleine's demise then it makes sense that none of them reacted as ordinary people would.

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