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Scenarios

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Scenarios

Post by tigger on 03.11.13 17:13

Let's go back and draw up possible scenarios. 
In all cases the Madeleine Fund has to work, whatever happened. 

1) she was abducted by 
a stalker, a gipsy who wanted new blood for the tribe, a paedophile, an abductor working to order or someone who just liked her. 
Setting up Fund and support, if this happened 3/5 is well nigh impossible. Even an earlier date leaves little time and it wouldn't be the first thing on the agenda. 

2) she was (accidentally) killed on a previous holiday in PdL. Body refrigerated and disposed of on next holiday when a scenario was devised. 
This gives plenty of time for Fund and support, explains the curious absence of M in photographs and the fact that the creche attendants thought she was shy.
Against, another girl would have to stand in for her. Not so hard, JT's daughter would be prime candidate for that. 
For, Gerry had been to PdL or at least Portugal several times, almost certainly knew Murat, had other contacts there as events proved. 
K: the family had been on holidays (incl. the twins) to Ireland, Guernsey and Spain. Assuming the twins would not travel until 6 months old, that makes 4 holidays in 18 months. 
Gerry's remark in the bus that he wasn't there to enjoy himself. The lack of photographs, the curious behaviour of the whole group and the plan for fundraising. Brother John giving up the day job almost immediately. 
Cadaver odour can last well past 6 months I believe. Explains lack of DNA in flat and possibly overlooked blood behind sofa. 
Heard from other source that only four boarding passes were handed out at UK airport. Cannot verify but interesting. 
But other people had stayed in apartment in April and 6 months in UK without M. Pretty difficult. 

3) she was going to be passed on to another family/person, who had to do the abduction. This went wrong and she died. Say 1/5 this happened. 
For: G and K. : 'the night we found her'. 
Kate frequently hoping that whoever had her would look after her and she would light up the lives of all around her. (didn't do that at home according to her book). Curious remarks. A prepared mantra that didn't fit the script anymore?
Still enables the Fundraising to go ahead, but with the added and somewhat panicked disposing of the body. Did Murat have to fly back for that?

4)She was successfully abducted by arrangement and now lives happily with another family.The Fundraising can work fine, no chance of anyone recognising her from the poster. 

5) She was overdosed by her parents and they found her dead, this would work only if it was much earlier in the holiday, or if it was intentional. 
It was IMO probably the reason the T7 cooperated with the deception and Rachel made the remark about resuscitation.
The Fund can work, but only with plenty of time to plan it. 

In all cases except nr 1, the coloboma idea and the out of date photo would be fine. Therefore, nr. 1 can never have happened, because why distribute a photograph with 'the eye' which didn't look anything like her. (compare the tennis girl) when you're really looking for her. 
Premeditation is a distinct possibility IMO. Setting up a company (no longer a Fund apparently) the photographs, the posters. The wider agenda. The company was up and running on the 15th May. Two weekends in between with a bank holiday.

The fake coloboma was a mistake, now they've retracted it, making out it was hardly there. Big mistake, because that really smells of premeditation. 
It had to be photoshopped to achieve that. Was it only to get out of checking sightings? Because they sure checked very few. 
Whichever wild way I try to work it, I think this started in the UK, was performed in backward, clodhopping, paedophile infested Portugal. 
Most telling is the fury of the McC's that the PJ were asking them questions, that their story wasn't accepted. There's something rather childish about that reaction. 
But without the protection they had from GB et al, the likelyhood is that the PJ would have had enough evidence to convict. IMO of course. 

Can anyone think of any other scenario? The dogs have to work of course and the Fundraising plan.

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And what should have happened...

Post by tigger on 03.11.13 17:16

I thought, rather than battle with the overload of information given out, we could work out what should have happened. Here goes:

Fake or not: (whether it's true or not - the behaviour one expects) 
Maddie is found to be missing: 
Parents get friends and staff to search the OC, shouting her name - after all she is only minutes away according to them. 
Within half an hour the police is called. The parents are now afraid she's been abducted. The parents are searching madly, keeping in touch by mobile phone. These are doctors, they could have thought to divide the search areas amongst themselves. 
Mrs. Fenn and other neighbors are asked if someone has heard or seen anything. 

Police arrive - description of the girl is given and by now someone has taken the last twenty or so family holiday photographs to the printer in OC. The best likeness on one of the many recent snaps is chosen and posted around PdL.

Very early in the morning of the 4th the family in the UK is phoned with the news, the Embassy is contacted - can they help? 
A local doctor prescribes some tranquilizers for the mother, who falls asleep exhausted with the twins within reach. The friends get together and one offers to phone Sky news. A recent photograph of the child is emailed to Sky. 
PJ advises parents not to involve press as experience has shown in kidnap cases that this almost certainly results in the death of the child. There is still time to ask Sky not to broadcast. This is done. 

Following days: parents desperate with grief and guilt - if only we hadn't ...
etc. etc. At no time can I see why the PM has to step in.

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Re: Scenarios

Post by ultimaThule on 09.11.13 2:30

Your 'what should have happened' scenario is no more than how I would expect any rightminded persons to behave in similar circumstances.  

In an emotive case such as this it's to be expected that would-be philanthropists, glory hunters, and those with reputations to make or repair, will climb on the bandwagon early in the proceedings with the good wishes of PMs, royalty, and the like, being conveyed at a later date after their aides have ascertained the cause is genuine. 

If this crime had taken place in the UK I have no doubt this is what would have happened but TM's relentless media campaign, which began before the Portuguese police were on the scene, together with their ready access to Gordon Brown's brother and the Scottish connection violin , set off a chain of knee-jerk reactions which subsequently rendered it exceedingly difficult for some to revise their positions without losing face.   

Without wishing to make a case for the self-serving wallies who govern, it's fair to say that while the McCanns exhibited, and continue to exhibit, every sign of being complicit in their daughter's disappearance, no evidence was discovered in the days immediately following 3 May 2007 which could hold them culpable and this made it untenable for many of those public figures who rushed to aid the ostensibly bereft couple to faciliate an abrupt about turn.

From this, you may deduce that I don't abscribe to any bigger conspiracy to conceal the McCanns' guilt than that of the vanity of certain movers and shakers who pay consultants to ensure any remnant of egg is not seen adhering to their public faces.

For me, the fact that the McCanns were allocated a second rate spin merchant whose departure from government circles was cause for celebration says it all.  Since the current Conservative candidate for Brighton Pavillion has been on the case, his clients have committed endless faux pas which a more able adviser would have prevented, while simultaneously distancing themselves from over involvement of the type which is liable to lead to a dock not dissimilar to the one a certain Mr Coulson now finds himself standing in. 

My apologies for the length of the above, trigger.  It was my intention to simply acknowledge your second post by concurring with your assessment but I got carried away... which I find frighteningly easy to do when deliberating on this case aaaah  If the men in white coats don't knock on my door, I hope to address your wider 'scenarios' in my next offering.

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Re: Scenarios

Post by tigger on 09.11.13 5:50

It was in fact a re-posting of a topic I wrote well over two years ago, reading it  I can now see how much more information we have now - I should have re-written it although it's still abundantly clear that both publicity and Ltd.Co. were  useless in finding the child.

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Re: Scenarios

Post by bobbin on 09.11.13 12:58

@tigger wrote:It was in fact a re-posting of a topic I wrote well over two years ago, reading it  I can now see how much more information we have now - I should have re-written it although it's still abundantly clear that both publicity and Ltd.Co. were  useless in finding the child.
Thank you tigger for your enormous amount of insightful work over the years.
It is fascinating how valid your above assessments still are, and as you say, we now have so much more information. Never could this be more true.
Today, Tony Bennett's post, if proven to be correct;
exposing the husband of Philomena McCann and his sickening creations of 'quick-sand death' film/cartoon fantasies;
of the Ullapool teacher, in the same school where Philomena teaches, being taken in for possession of paedophilic photos plus worse;
the fact that Callum MacCrae was one of Philomena's school students, etc. must now, in my mind, point towards the always suspected theory of 'pre-meditation'.
I now suddenly see Robert Murat's comment 'the biggest cock-up in history' in a brighter light.
Things that have always stuck out in my mind as serious 'red-flag' oddities:
Philomena gabbed off about the jimmied shutters at a time so premature, that she had clearly been informed to blab about broken shutters, but had subsequently NOT received the 'corrective' message that in fact the shutters had NOT been (able to be) broken.
Jez Wilkins (many posters saw it written somewhere before it was whooshed) had been reported as mentioning seeing Gerry McCann by 5A fiddling with the shutters when he set off with his son in the baby buggy. Was Gerry's plan foiled at this moment and the 'cock-up' of a hastily thrown-together adjusted story followed.
Jez Wilkins had also seen Jane Tanner (without knowing who she was at the time) wearing purple, close to 5A and looking at 5A.
Murat's rushing back to Portugal, a few days earlier, may be related to a need to help out due to an earlier mishap, (or even a premeditated disastrous event) there again, maybe he's not involved at all, but Gerry McCann's 'peculiar refusal' to say whether he knew Murat or not has been long discussed.
The PJ reports do comment on how they caught Murat looking through the police papers on the desks.
Who knows !
The facts now, if they are proven to be true, of 'auroraman' being the now husband of Philomena McCann, and of his declared fetish for creating film of women drowning in quicksands puts a whole new perspective onto the sort of people, family background, environment which surrounds Gerry and Kate McCann, and subsequently poor little Madeleine.
Gerry's brother John and his sister Philomena, including his other sister Trish Cameron, have, from the start, been most loud mouthed and verbal, to the point of bullying, in forcing the innocence of their little brother and the purported 'abduction' theory exclusively, onto the public.
How Gordon Brown is connected to this will be even more interesting.
His brother Andrew seems to be involved in the inter-connection of contact made to Gordon Brown/govt. intervention, made straight after Maddie was announced as abducted by paedophiles, and the name Andrew Brown does turn up on a car hiring, previous to the McCs' arrival at PdL.
This is becoming very interesting at the same time as very horrible and exceedingly unpleasant.
Philomena's husband's 'death by drowning in quicksand creations' are seriously sickening and worrying.
The whole family, seeming to be 'tainted by association', at least comes to mind. All of the above is of course All In My Own Opinion.

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