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Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

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Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by bristow on Fri 1 Nov 2013 - 16:57


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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Sockpuppet on Fri 1 Nov 2013 - 16:58


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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by pennylane on Fri 1 Nov 2013 - 17:05

It's reassuring that a criminal profiler has reached the precise conclusions as you and I, and countless others, have!

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by SchrodingersBody on Fri 1 Nov 2013 - 17:27

It almost mirrors my thinking, with a couple of additions. I would add that I think they found her almost dead, tried to revive her, and therefore can justify to themselves that they "did everything possible", and hence the lack of guilt. If it were me, I'd be beating myself up for not knowing CPR. They don't have that, they are trained medical professionals, so know there was nothing more that could be done. 

I also feel that the subsequent actions of the couple in terms of this theory would be justified in their minds because they are doing what is needed to be done "for the twins". It's been a while since I watched the "first interview" but it fits with some of the statements made on that occasion. I then think that things snowballed from there and just got a whole lot bigger than they ever expected.

Of course some of the intelligence and information points to a totally different scenario, and until we know some truth, as per my username, Madeleine is both dead and alive at the same time. Nobody has evidence that Jack the Ripper is dead, but I doubt anyone is scared of him anymore.

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by MarleneP on Fri 1 Nov 2013 - 17:48

@SchrodingersBody wrote: I would add that I think they found her almost dead,
I would like to agree. But Pat Brown writes
I do not believe the McCanns went to dinner with the knowledge that their child was dead and then planned to "discover" her missing later that evening.
I could imagine they found her almost dead, she died. They went to dinner (the twins sedated) and Kate was surprised when she could not find the child: "They've taken her." In this scenario, we do not know how she came to death,. Accident with family, abuse of a stranger? Who was introduced and took the child away?

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Okeydokey on Fri 1 Nov 2013 - 19:05

They've got terrier with her teeth sunk in their ankle now haven't they?

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Onager on Fri 1 Nov 2013 - 19:17

@MarleneP wrote:
@SchrodingersBody wrote: I would add that I think they found her almost dead,
I would like to agree. But Pat Brown writes
I do not believe the McCanns went to dinner with the knowledge that their child was dead and then planned to "discover" her missing later that evening.
I could imagine they found her almost dead, she died. They went to dinner (the twins sedated) and Kate was surprised when she could not find the child: "They've taken her." In this scenario, we do not know how she came to death,. Accident with family, abuse of a stranger? Who was introduced and took the child away?
I tend to agree. I don't believe they would've got away with claiming they were taking it in turns, up and down from the table... unless they were doing this from the outset on the night of the 3rd. Still believe Diane Webster was ignorant of the event, and their movements up to 9.40'ish were for her benefit.

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Hongkong Phooey on Fri 1 Nov 2013 - 19:45

Pat hasn't taken into account that in Scotland we use the word disaster not in its truest sense, many things are called a disaster which are not catastrophic. I do however tend to agree with her theory.

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by thetruthbeknown on Fri 1 Nov 2013 - 20:17

number 3, would be in one of my (many) theories..Once realising that Madeleine couldnt be saved, after accidental death..self preservation kicked in. Realising they had been neglectful, and would be possibily prosecuted and condemned, that basic instinct of 'self preservation' kicked in. They could not afford to lose everything, their jobs and lifestyle relied on being seen as responsible, plus the consequences of the criminal charge of neglect...They would have felt an overwhelming force to make this look like someone elses fault...In fact on the recent Crimewatch program, one of the first things said by Kate 'We have done nothing wrong'...In denial...

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Guest on Fri 1 Nov 2013 - 20:20

@Okeydokey wrote:
They've got terrier with her teeth sunk in their ankle now haven't they?
Who also lost a lot of money because they inspired -allegedly of course- to pull her bestselling book

Interesting times ahead

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Jambo on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 13:35

@Hongkong Phooey wrote:Pat hasn't taken into account that in Scotland we use the word disaster not in its truest sense,  many things are called a disaster which are not catastrophic.  I do however tend to agree with  her theory.
Agreed and I also agree with the theory.

However, I don't agree there is any relevance to Gerry saying it's a disaster anyway. He was describing an abduction, not a death. Even if it was a lie, he apparently said "There's been a disaster, it's a disaster. Madeleine has been abducted from her bed." He isn't going to say "There's been an accident. Madeleine has been abducted from her bed."

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Joss on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 13:43

Maybe what GM should of said is 'Madeline has gone missing from the holiday apartment because we left the little ones all alone with no adult supervision while we wined and dined with our mates'. The "disaster" in all of it is that those two Dr.s didn't have the good sense of responsibility toward their babies that most parents have. It wasn't like they only did this once, it was a few successive nights in a row. I guess their luck ran out, unless it was something more sinister than a possible accident? And Madeline paid the ultimate price for her parents mistakes.

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Joss on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 13:49

@thetruthbeknown wrote:number 3, would be in one of my (many) theories..Once realising that Madeleine couldnt be saved, after accidental death..self preservation kicked in. Realising they had been neglectful, and would be possibily prosecuted and condemned, that basic instinct of 'self preservation' kicked in. They could not afford to lose everything, their jobs and lifestyle relied on being seen as responsible, plus the consequences of the criminal charge of neglect...They would have felt an overwhelming force to make this look like someone elses fault...In fact on the recent Crimewatch program, one of the first things said by Kate 'We have done nothing wrong'...In denial...
 tbk,  Denial or Consciousness of Guilt? Does she not get that if they had not left their children unattended by an adult Madeline would still be with them? They did plenty wrong IMO.

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Guest on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 16:29

I still have every big problems believing that they left their 3 children under 4 alone with the doors open.
They may be selfish, narcissistic, whatever ... but they just cannot be that stupid.
No neglect, no abduction, though ...

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by PeterMac on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 17:09

Châtelaine wrote:I still have every big problems believing that they left their 3 children under 4 alone with the doors open.
They may be selfish, narcissistic, whatever ... but they just cannot be that stupid.
No neglect, no abduction, though ...
Indeed. For me too the whole thing is a nonsense invention to try to make it all fit in
But the total trashing of Tannerman has messed it all up, since there is now no need to say they left the patio door unlocked.
They could have "gone through the front door using their key", and left the same way.

Which means Gerry's first statement might have been the truth ( SHOCK HORROR ! Man tells truth to Police ! ! ! ) at least about his point of entry, though not about anything else, of course.

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by juliet on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 17:14

I agree with Chatelaine. I can't believe they all left those tiny - and in some cases sick - infants alone. They would have to all be monsters. Pat Brown's theory is too simple and doesn't take into account the immediate arrival of government support, the story being in the Telegraph by midnight, the possibly pre-printed posters, the deleted phone messages and create Reid anomalies, lack of Maddie Dna in the flat etc etc. To me what happened is more sinister.

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by juliet on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 17:15

Creche record anomalies sorry!

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Guest on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 17:20

I cannot help to [or maybe I have to for sanity] think that the SY "trashing" of bundleman was a very clever game. We still haven't heard of any reaction from TM [which is quite "extraordinary"] or JT herself. It doesn't make sense that the "real" father carrying a child, is "found" after 6,5 years and is walking in the wrong direction. It's IMO a clear indication that it's a SY invention and a clear message in the category "We know that you know that we know what you know ...". The present "case" of the already deceased Cabo Verdian "prime suspect of the day" is so over the top, that I'm not sure whether we should make jokes about it. So, what's the game? Because there's a game being played. Let's hope [and I believe] that top cops can play chess and poker too ;-)

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by secrets and lies on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 17:44

When you examine Pat's three possible scenario's it is difficult to go fully with the third option.

While that is the one I WANT to believe, as others have pointed out, if the McCann's had simply invented a simple and not very sophisticated cover-up (scenario 3) then how in hell did they manage to galvanise the press and start such a massive media blitz so quickly.

The cool headedness it would take to think in that direction and the calculated wherewithall to execute such a cunning ploy does in know way fit in with Pat's favoured scenario.


Yes, we know they had top drawer connections. I believe I read that Kate knew someone in SKY NEWS etc, but to be able to put all those pieces together in the midst of such shock and turmoil, if we are to adhere to scenario 3, would mean that The McCanns are nothing short of superhuman.

Even IF the accident had happened days before the 3rd, at what point did the McCanns click that they had a potential business enterprise on their hands? And where would they have found the courage to go down this route if they truly were dealing with grief and terror in relation to "an accident"?

I recall a thread somewhere about Gerry McCann applying for the internet domain for "find Maddie", a whole year before the event. Probably just hearsay but also sets you thinking.

With all due respect to Pat, she is a criminal profiler by profession and to indulge in scenario 2 and all the potential premeditated darkness that entails, might be too much and call her reputation into question in some quarters. It might simply be TOO speculative for her to be seen to believe and that would be perfectly understandable. She has done a mighty job already in analysing the muddle of data we do have.

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by boo boos on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 17:52

Kate Mccann: 'I know what happened is not due to leaving the children asleep. It happened under other circumstances.'

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Guest on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 17:56

@boo boos wrote:Kate Mccann: 'I know what happened is not due to leaving the children asleep. It happened under other circumstances.'
***
And she was there and she knows what she saw. And she knows more than us ...
[free after Kate McCann] yes 

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by sonic72 on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 18:13

Pat is pretty much bob on, and inline with Mr Amaral's theory.

The only explanation for them needing to cover it up if they just found her would be if she was medicated, otherwise they could have said it happened whilst they were in the apartment, and the heat would be off them.

Wow, 6 years of elaborate pantomime just because they didn't have the balls to hold their hands up for their own actions. Cowards!

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by notlongnow on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 18:16

Writing a timeline,contacting media and printing posters is something you may think of/do the following day but very strange to do as soon as you know your child is missing.

I'd expect parents and close friends to be in shock and running round like headless chickens.

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by Guest on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 18:25

@secrets and lies wrote:When you examine Pat's three possible scenario's it is difficult to go fully with the third option.

While that is the one I WANT to believe, as others have pointed out, if the McCann's had simply invented a simple and not very sophisticated cover-up (scenario 3) then how in hell did they manage to galvanise the press and start such a massive media blitz so quickly.

The cool headedness it would take to think in that direction and the calculated wherewithall to execute such a cunning ploy does in know way fit in with Pat's favoured scenario.


Yes, we know they had top drawer connections. I believe I read that Kate knew someone in SKY NEWS etc, but to be able to put all those pieces together in the midst of such shock and turmoil, if we are to adhere to scenario 3, would mean that The McCanns are nothing short of superhuman.

Even IF the accident had happened days before the 3rd, at what point did the McCanns click that they had a potential business enterprise on their hands? And where would they have found the courage to go down this route if they truly were dealing with grief and terror in relation to "an accident"?

I recall a thread somewhere about Gerry McCann applying for the internet domain for "find Maddie", a whole year before the event. Probably just hearsay but also sets you thinking.

With all due respect to Pat, she is a criminal profiler by profession and to indulge in scenario 2 and all the potential premeditated darkness that entails, might be too much and call her reputation into question in some quarters. It might simply be TOO speculative for her to be seen to believe and that would be perfectly understandable. She has done a mighty job already in analysing the muddle of data we do have.
Interesting: did GM really apply for the domain name find Maddie, or is that yet another red herring?
Anybody know more about this one?
And why Maddie, as the child was never called that (allegedly)

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Re: Criminal profiler Pat Brown's latest blog 1/11/13 - "It's a Disaster" - Gerry McCann

Post by sonic72 on Sat 2 Nov 2013 - 18:25

@juliet wrote:I agree with Chatelaine. I can't believe they all left those tiny - and in some cases sick - infants alone. They would have to all be monsters. Pat Brown's theory is too simple and doesn't take into account the immediate arrival of government support, the story being in the Telegraph by midnight, the possibly pre-printed posters, the deleted phone messages and create Reid anomalies, lack of Maddie Dna in the flat etc etc.  To me what happened is more sinister.
Wasn't Gerry sister connected to politicians in some way?

Gerry is a useful surgeon to know for the rich folk. In the event of a major catastrophe, civil war or whatever the super-elite will have a team of skilled medics with them in their VIP bunkers, Gerry would be an ideal candidate if it ever went off.

The McCann's had the full-works... The crisis management gold package, with all the right people doing their bit to steer the McCann's ship through the 'Disaster' that fell before them.

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