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The Complete Mystery of Madeleine McCann™
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SMITHMAN 2 - What can account for the 17 remarkable similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

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Why are there 17 similarities between Tannerman and Smithman?

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Post by HelenMeg 25.09.14 12:30

Did she die on the 3rd May or not - it surely all boils down to that in the end?

So many things and theories  convince me that she dies on the 3rd early evening and yet there are
other things that convince me she died earlier in the week - namely - the last photo / DP's visit to K seeing the kids like angels. I am torn over this. If we can discount death on the 3rd May then I think things will become clearer. If we cant then more difficult.
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Post by tigger 25.09.14 12:31

Re the annual return of Martin Smith's company, I have it in PDF but haven't been able to copy and paste. I will try to do it tommorrow so that it can be seen by all.

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Post by HelenMeg 25.09.14 12:33

HelenMeg wrote:Did she die on the 3rd May or not - it surely all boils down to that in the end?

So many things and theories  convince me that she dies on the 3rd early evening and yet there are
other things that convince me she died earlier in the week - namely - the last photo / DP's visit to K seeing the kids like angels. I am torn over this. If we can discount death on the 3rd May then I think things will become clearer. If we cant then more difficult.
I always come back down to 'when did the behaviour start to deviate from normal'... but since we are being fed a load of confusion and lies from the Tapas 9 it is very difficult to tell. However - the phone records dont lie.
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Post by HelenMeg 25.09.14 12:34

Remember the game - pin a tail on the donkey' or something like that.....

If you had to pin the Time of Death on a Calendar -  and only had the mobile phone records as clues - where would you pin the time of death?
and I apologise as Ive gone off at a tangent from this thread's title. sorry.
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Post by j.rob 25.09.14 13:36

HelenMeg wrote:Did she die on the 3rd May or not - it surely all boils down to that in the end?

So many things and theories  convince me that she dies on the 3rd early evening and yet there are
other things that convince me she died earlier in the week - namely - the last photo / DP's visit to K seeing the kids like angels. I am torn over this. If we can discount death on the 3rd May then I think things will become clearer. If we cant then more difficult.

Unless Madeleine had a catastrophic accident/drug overdose or was grievously assaulted she is unlikely to have died instantly. Healthy four year olds (I know some suggest she was not healthy but even a sickly four year old is unlikely to just die suddenly) tend not to just drop down dead. The type of accident that can kill a child tends to happen in situations like road accidents where there is speed and high impact collision. Even if an adult lost their temper, say, and struck out, it would have to be a very heavy blow I would imagine to kill a four year old outright.

Horrible thoughts but I am just trying to be realistic. Four year olds very rarely just drop dead overnight. That would be extremely unusual.

Say she was overdosed on sedatives, for instance, again I think that it would not be a sudden death. If you read some of the reports on children who have been accidentally overdosed on sedatives, nearly all recover with appropriate timely medical care and treatment. (And I imagine some recover even without any treatment.)


So, to my mind, the really important time and day is the one where *something happened/something was done/something was not done* to Madeleine. I think that after this event  whatever it was and whenever it was (Saturday, Sunday or Monday, imo) a sequence of events took place, a series of decisions were made which ultimately lead to her demise. I have a nagging suspicion that it is possible that the outcome could have been different (as a doctor might say) if the circumstances had been different. 

But TM did not want a giant can of worms being uncovered. Which is what could have happened if it came to light what had happened to Madeleine that week. The scale of the cover-up can only be explained by the absolute necessity to keep the worm can firmly hidden, imo. And I think this may have involved making at least one sacrifice - possibly an unfortunate phrase given the speculation that has arisen around this case. 

Madeleine's death could have been on the 3rd May, imo. I used to think that she could have died after 3rd May and her body brought back to the apartment while the Mcs decided what to do with it. But, as others have pointed out, the apartment was sealed off by police shortly after Madeleine's disappearance. But I guess that does not entirely rule out the scenario of Madeleine's body been brought back there while deciding what to do with it. For how long did police continue to carry out searches of OC and surrounding apartments etc after 3rd May I wonder? With all the high level support that was given to them so early on, perhaps TM thought that apartment 5A was some kind of 'safe house'.

TM were very keen to claim that Madeleine could have been whisked off thousands of miles away from Luz at the earliest opportunity, so clearly wanted the search a long way from home. Sightings from all over the world kept the spotlight far away from the scene of the crime. 

And the fact that the Mcs remained near OC for so long suggests to me that Madeleine -whether dead or alive - was not that far away in the early days/weeks.  This would be consistent with they (and/or their close friends)  being responsible for what happened to Madeleine, imo. Criminals quite often tend to hang around the scene of the crime. 

So while the media are following up sightings in Outer Mongolia, TM are attempting a damage-limitation exercise. 

And I agree that the sniffer dog alerts in the apartment, in the garden near the apartment and in the car hired weeks after Madeleine's 'disappearance' provide compelling evidence. (Although I suppose it is not impossible that they are wrong or it was planted. I only mention that as this case is just so weird that practically anything is possible, imo.)

As for Smithman, it seems highly unlikely to have been Gerry carrying Madeleine unless there had been a monumental bodge-up. It could possibly have been someone carrying Madeleine to the emergency clinic down the road??

However I do think it is possible that it was staged. Someone who looked like Gerry carrying a child that could have been Madeleine  just happened to conveniently walk past the Smith family of nine at a key time on a key date. (So the Smith family didn't really have to lie as such - this would be especially important in terms of keeping the story straight with the 12 year old - because they did see something.)

Something to hold back for a rainy day, perhaps. Something to keep TM on their toes? 

Just a theory.
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Post by Snifferdog 25.09.14 14:11

goodpost

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Post by Guest 25.09.14 17:53

@j.rob 1.36 pm today:

For how long did police continue to carry out searches of OC and surrounding apartments etc after 3rd May I wonder? With all the high level support that was given to them so early on, perhaps TM thought that apartment 5A was some kind of 'safe house'.

IIRC, the police stopped searching locally on Friday 11th May.
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Post by Guest 25.09.14 18:06

Ladyinred wrote:@j.rob 1.36 pm today:

For how long did police continue to carry out searches of OC and surrounding apartments etc after 3rd May I wonder? With all the high level support that was given to them so early on, perhaps TM thought that apartment 5A was some kind of 'safe house'.

IIRC, the police stopped searching locally on Friday 11th May.

Good point. As long as the Mcs were believed to be innocent, there would be no reason to search the apartment(s) again. A 'safe place' indeed.
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Post by Guest 25.09.14 18:15

Dee Coy wrote:
Ladyinred wrote:@j.rob 1.36 pm today:

For how long did police continue to carry out searches of OC and surrounding apartments etc after 3rd May I wonder? With all the high level support that was given to them so early on, perhaps TM thought that apartment 5A was some kind of 'safe house'.

IIRC, the police stopped searching locally on Friday 11th May.

Good point. As long as the Mcs were believed to be innocent, there would be no reason to search the apartment(s) again. A 'safe place' indeed.
At what stage did the doubts set in?
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Post by Guest 25.09.14 18:37

According to 'The Truth of the Lie' only seriously at the beginning of July, I believe.
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Post by Guest 25.09.14 18:53

Dee Coy wrote:According to 'The Truth of the Lie' only seriously at the beginning of July, I believe.
Thanks,so hide a body in plain site during passage from where to where is the conundrum,IMO of course.
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Post by Guest 25.09.14 19:16

I'm doubt if the flat would have been used as a hiding place, but it's possible a body may have been brought back there after the event, temporarily. Particularly if it was a panic situation and any body was removed quickly that night without proper planning.

Some people believe there wasn't enough time for cadaver scent to develop that night from the McCanns leaving for dinner and Madeleine being reported missing. If what happened happened earlier in the week or day this could account for this. Another explanation would be for any body to be brought back briefly to the apartment after the 3rd.

All musings and speculation only.
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Post by Tony Bennett 26.09.14 12:26

Replying to all points made re the Smith sighting by members since my long post on page 47, in the order in which they were made:

@ Doug D   ( and @ HelenMeg )

re: Both camps are so adamant that they are right, that this has caused more dissent, disruption and acrimony, than any other issue, exactly the result that TM (who are no doubt feeding the fires in all of the forums) must wish for.

REPLY:  That rather depends on who is right. Suppose for one moment that the Smiths did not see anyone and have made up their sighting for one reason or another. And suppose for one moment that both the Met and the McCann Team know this fine and are relying on this bogus ‘sighting’ to bring about the endgame: ‘We think the abductor was the man seen by the Smiths but unfortunately we can’t trace him’. If that were case, all hell would break loose against anybody who brought up cogent reasons for doubting the sighting, wouldn’t it?  

re: I do not understand why it cannot be accepted that the Smiths probably did see someone carrying a young girl that night

REPLY: Because, I suggest, all the evidence we have about (a) the claimed sighting and (b) the provenance of the e-fits suggest that there in grave doubt about the ‘official’ version. I have posted a summary of all the contradictions on the new ‘Smithman 4’ thread. As I did with the 20 contradictions surrounding the alleged David Payne/Kate McCann meeting at 6.30pm on 3 May, I invite fellow members here to carefully examine all the contradictions and see if they can find a rational expnantion for why there are so many.

re: Tony’s stance in questioning the sighting from the opposite direction is equally as valid. Why the delay in reporting? There seems little to back up the ‘2 day report’ other than two press reports 6 years later which does not attribute this seemingly ‘new’ revelation to anything or anyone.

REPLY: Exactly – and these are only two of many questions about the ‘sighting’ and the ‘e-fits’. 

re: I don’t understand [Martin Smith’s] comment about not held in a ‘comfortable position’. The way GM came off the plane carrying a child is the easiest and most comfortable position to carry someone, so why would you say otherwise?

REPLY: That throws into sharp relief, once again, the credibility of Martin Smith in claiming, over 4 months later, that he ‘recognised’ Gerry McCann from ‘the way he was carrying his child’. Thank you for bringing up this valuable additional point, which I’d overlooked 

re: ‘Tannerman’ carry, however, is an unlikely and uncomfortable position as you cannot support a ‘nearly 4 year old’ child properly (if at all!) just in two hands or arms and personally I feel there is some confusion and subliminal input in his original statement, probably having already seen the description (and picture) which were released by the PJ the day before, on 25th May I believe

REPLY: I think that’s an excellent observation, which touches once again on those awkward 16 ‘carbon copy’ similarities’ between Tannerman and Smithman.

@ roy rovers

re: Yes if Smithman was real but not Gerry then good for TM to use to spread the notion of an abduction.

REPLY: Agreed

@ sharonl

re: It is also good for them to convince us all that May 3rd was the night of Madeleine’s disappearance and divert attention from the actual time. Most investigative work centred around May 3rd, perhaps more emphasis should have been placed on the McCanns movements earlier that week.

REPLY: Agreed that the Crimewatch programme fixed our attention no an abduction after 9.15pm and before 10.00pm on 3 May

@ Doug D

re: Honestly, I can't see Tony as the sort of person to be forced into becoming a quisling for any reason whatsoever. What can be gained?

REPLY: Thank you. But the theory that I have done a deal with the McCanns was heavily promoted, as most here probably know, on Cristobell’s blog, by former member here ‘russian doll’, and is still being promoted in another forum set up by Cristobell. I hope it’s obvious here that my arguments re the Smith ‘sighting’ are based purely on an honest evaluation of the evidence (in which I might be right or wrong) but nothing else   

@ Gollum

re: As Sharonl pointed out, TM are quite happy for anybody to go over the 3rd of May until the end of time. It suits their agenda perfectly.

REPLY: Agreed

@ j.rob

Most of your post discusses the possibility of Madeleine having ‘died  earlier in the week’, which I can’t discuss.

However, you also wrote:  

“As for Smithman, it seems highly unlikely to have been Gerry carrying Madeleine unless there had been a monumental bodge-up. It could possibly have been someone carrying Madeleine to the emergency clinic down the road?? However I do think it is possible that it was staged. Someone who looked like Gerry carrying a child that could have been Madeleine just happened to conveniently walk past the Smith family of nine at a key time on a key date. (So the Smith family didn't really have to lie as such - this would be especially important in terms of keeping the story straight with the 12 year old - because they did see something.)  Something to hold back for a rainy day, perhaps. Something to keep TM on their toes? Just a theory.

REPLY:  I’ve considered that possibility but still maintain that fabrication is the more logical explanation for all the contradictions and the purported use of this ‘sighting’ by the Met and BBC Crimewatch.      


@ WMD   


Thank you for confirming (on another thread I think) that you are not me, contrary to tigger/Bagheera’s suspicions

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Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".  

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Post by tigger 20.10.14 8:02

tigger wrote:
Tony Bennett wrote:If we look at the poll results so far, they are interesting.

80 have voted.

The fact that there are 17 similarities between the two sightings (or 15 if RIPM is right) is clearly hard to explain, hence the number of people (51) voting 'some other reason'. But almost none of those who voted 'some other reason' can think of an adequate explanation - or, if they can, have not said what it is.

Which leaves 29 who 'buy' one of the three explanations offered.

Of these, just 5 (17%) agree that "Crecheman and Smithman are one and the same - he had to walk a very long way back home from the crèche" (same man).

A further 3 (9.7%) agree that "There were two virtually identical men with virtually identical clothes each taking their virtually identical children somewhere - just one of those amazing coincidences" (different men, but looking near-identical with identical children

But 21 (72%) agree with the proposition that "Both Jane Tanner and Martin Smith were working to a script and neither actually saw anyone" (no Tannerman, no Smithman)

I don't think raw data can be subdivided like this  -  there are not 3 but 4 options in all. The majority have voted for option 4.

80 votes are 100%

29 votes =  36.25%
51 votes =   63.75%

5 votes (of the 29) = 6.25%
3 votes ( of the 29) =  3.75%
21 votes (of the 29) =  26.25%

Therefore 63.75 % opted for another scenario than the three given out of a total number of 4 options.

If say the questions had been:
Would you vote for:
Conservative,
Labour
Liberal
Other

All four options  have to be considered imo.

I hope the above is clear enough Tony, as your latest communication to me seemed to take exception to the fact that it was also mentioned elsewhere.

However, I had posted it on the open forum and have never had a reply to this post.

Screenshot 9.05


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Post by HelenMeg 20.10.14 11:16

The theory that I subscribe to regarding Smithman is here:

http://textusa.blogspot.pt/2010/09/luck-of-irish.html

So far, I have found nothing that makes me believe anything else. According to this theory Martin Smith gave details of his sighting in secret to the Police before it was made public.
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Post by Tony Bennett 20.10.14 11:59

HelenMeg wrote:The theory that I subscribe to regarding Smithman is here:

http://textusa.blogspot.pt/2010/09/luck-of-irish.html

So far, I have found nothing that makes me believe anything else. According to this theory Martin Smith gave details of his sighting in secret to the Police before it was made public.
@ HelenMeg   

This is hardly a 'theory' - it's a fact that we all know, HelenMeg.

Textusa points out that the Smiths were interviewed on 26 May 2007 and that news about the sighting leaked out in August. Nothing new at all in that - I've covered this point before in my various writings on 'Smithman'.

Unfortunately, Textusa's theory is littered with simple errors.

She writes, for example:

"Martin Smith telephoned Leicester Police the evening of September 9th saying he recognised Gerry McCann".

The evidence however is that he did not make a statement to this effect until 20th September. Unless you can show me a link or article that says otherwise?

Textusa also adds:

"I believe McCann walked through the streets with Tanner's sedated child dressed in Madeleine's pyjamas".

Apart from Smith's highly dubious claim that he 'recognised' Gerry McCann 'from the way he carried his child down the aircraft steps', is there any other evidence whatsoever that supports this bizarre belief?


And, since you 'subscribe to' Textusa's theory, do you personally believe that Gerry was carrying Jane Tanner's child dressed in Madeleine's pyjamas through the streets of Praia da Luz at 10.00pm that evening? Seriously?


As for Textusa's reference:

"Smith had seen Murat, if briefly, before..." 

we have direct quotes from Martin and Peter Smith informing us:

a) that he had known Murat for at least two years and

b) that he and Murat 'had met on several occasions' 


ETA: 

The poll gives three possible explanations for why there are these 17/16/15 remarkable similarities between 'Tannerman' and 'Smithman', and the votes so far are as follows:

(1) 'Both Jane Tanner and Martin Smith were working to a script and neither actually saw anyone' - 28 votes

(2) 'Crecheman and Smithman are one and the same - he had to walk a very long way back home from the crèche' - 6 votes

(3) 'There were two virtually identical men with virtually identical clothes each taking their virtually identical children somewhere - just one of those amazing coincidences' - 5 votes.

There appear to be two additional explanations now offered on this thread:

(4) The Smiths saw Gerry McCann, which he hadn't bargained for, so after he had hidden Madeleine somewhere, he rushed back to the Ocean Club, got hold of Jane Tanner and said something like: "Quick, make up a description exactly like me, except make the length and colour of my hair a bit different". Russell O'Brien then wrote down that Jane Tanner had seen someone carrying a child at 9.15/9.20pm that evening

(5) What I will refer to as the 'Textusa-&-HelenMeg' explanation:  "The Smiths saw Gerry McCann, which he hadn't bargained for. At the time he was carrying Jane Tanner's child, dressed in Madeleine's pyjamas. He then rushed back to the Ocean Club (with or without Jane Tanner's child is not stated by Textusa), got hold of Jane Tanner and said something like: "Quick, make up a description exactly like me, except make the length and colour of my hair a bit different". Russell O'Brien then wrote down that Jane Tanner had seen someone carrying a child at 9.15/9.20pm that evening.


TWO QUESTIONS:

A. How many members here support one of explanations (4) and (5) above?

B. How many members here reject all 5 explanations above for the 15/16/17 similarities and, if so, do they have any other rational explanation for these remarkable similarities?

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Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".  

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Post by Tony Bennett 21.10.14 9:46

@ HelenMeg

Reminder of my question yesterday (above):

And, since you 'subscribe to' Textusa's theory, do you personally believe that Gerry was carrying Jane Tanner's child dressed in Madeleine's pyjamas through the streets of Praia da Luz at 10.00pm that evening?  Seriously?

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Dr Martin Roberts: "The evidence is that these are the pjyamas Madeleine wore on holiday in Praia da Luz. They were photographed and the photo handed to a press agency, who released it on 8 May, as the search for Madeleine continued. The McCanns held up these same pyjamas at two press conferences on 5 & 7June 2007. How could Madeleine have been abducted?"

Amelie McCann (aged 2): "Maddie's jammies!".  

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Post by HelenMeg 21.10.14 10:15

Tony Bennett wrote:@ HelenMeg

Reminder of my question yesterday (above):

And, since you 'subscribe to' Textusa's theory, do you personally believe that Gerry was carrying Jane Tanner's child dressed in Madeleine's pyjamas through the streets of Praia da Luz at 10.00pm that evening?  Seriously?
Hi Tony
Sorry was not ignoring just simply had been looking at different threads etc.

In my opinion, based on everything I read and also trying to put myself in the situation which I believe occurred that night ( a group of people, IMO, staging an abduction scenario, full of adrenaline, thinking on their feet perhaps at times, making rash decisions possibly and certainly making mistakes), I think that GM took a child and wished to be seen as a potential abductor in the streets of Praia de Luz. I dont think he wished to be scrutinised by any witnesses - simply observed from a distance. This , he believed, on that night would ensure that the wider public believed than an abduction had taken place. It was a stupid decision, perhaps, in hindsight. I believe that they made mistakes and this was one of them. I believe it is human nature under that scenario to make errors - and therefore to me it is highly credible.  I perhaps would have done this too, in that scenario.  'How can we make people believe in an abduction? Lets have one of us or two of us carry a child as if we are abducting it... otherwise who the hell will believe us? '

In the heat of the moment that is what I think happened. But it backfired. IMO.

But a lot of us here have differing opinions as to what happened - whether Smithman existed etc etc etc. That is what I believe, but am not too concerned if noone else here believes it. It is one opinion amongst many!!
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Post by nomendelta 21.10.14 10:20

Thing is, if Gerry was prancing around the Streets wanting to be seen so that their abduction story would gain credence...he didn't do a very good job of it. To be seen by only one family must have been a massive failure.
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Post by HelenMeg 21.10.14 11:06

nomendelta wrote:Thing is, if Gerry was prancing around the Streets wanting to be seen so that their abduction story would gain credence...he didn't do a very good job of it. To be seen by only one family must have been a massive failure.
Well, from my point of view, he only needed 1 - too many  could be disastrous. As it happened it was disastrous anyway.  Anyway..
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Post by Hicks 21.10.14 11:39

I tend to think (though not 100%) that Madeleine died earlier that the 3rd May, possibly the Tuesday eve/early Wednesday morning.

IF the flat had been intensely cleaned then that requires pre-planning. Why would the McCann's decide to remove the body almost at the same time the alarm was given? It just doesn't make sense, surely IF they planned the whole abduction charade wouldn't they have removed the body well beforehand to set the scene?

I am now of the opinion that Gerry McCann was at the Ocean Club at the time of the smith sighting. Didn't Mr Amaral discount the Smith sighting due to witnesses putting McCann there?

Martin Smith and his family probably did see someone carrying a child, and he was telling the truth as he saw it, but it was not Madeleine. 
The whole thing is just a big red herring perhaps.

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Post by joyce1938 21.10.14 12:04

I am not certain ,but I thought the cleaning must have been sometime after the night she was taken? There were  quite a no . of people in and out of said apt. as soon as the call went out .they have taken her /? so hairs and dne could been left by a no . of folk ? before the pj got there ?just a thought and memory / was the dna of friends and police looked at ?  difficult to know if anyone else could have entrered that apartment  not that I believe she was kidnapped. joyce1938
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Post by SixMillionQuid 21.10.14 13:08

HelenMeg wrote:
nomendelta wrote:Thing is, if Gerry was prancing around the Streets wanting to be seen so that their abduction story would gain credence...he didn't do a very good job of it. To be seen by only one family must have been a massive failure.
Well, from my point of view, he only needed 1 - too many  could be disastrous. As it happened it was disastrous anyway.  Anyway..

How can GM determine exactly how many people he wanted to be seen by? Their apartments are surrounded by other apartments - if you're on an upper floor you can look down and see all the action. So having left 5A he heads south towards Kelly's bar. The alarm is raised in the Tapas Bar, there's chaos but GM isnt there because he's on his way back with a child in his arms - and no other person spots him! Thats the problem I have. If you're in one of the apartments around 5A you can see what's going on. But nobody spotted GM coming back. Is he that lucky?

The sightings are far too convenient for my liking. In each case, Tanner or Smiths, they bail somebody out of trouble GM and Murat.

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Post by plebgate 21.10.14 13:12

HelenMeg wrote:
nomendelta wrote:Thing is, if Gerry was prancing around the Streets wanting to be seen so that their abduction story would gain credence...he didn't do a very good job of it. To be seen by only one family must have been a massive failure.
Well, from my point of view, he only needed 1 - too many  could be disastrous. As it happened it was disastrous anyway.  Anyway..
It would be taking a massive risk though as someone might actually have rung the police and said there was a man acting suspiciously walking round PdL with a child in his arms on a cold night, with bare feet and no jacket/coat on (the child that is).
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Post by Doug D 21.10.14 13:30

Not really Plebgate.

If this scenario was played out and someone had reported him and the Police turned up, he could just say:

'Daughters gone missing, out trying to find her and my son (or daughter) was awake so I had to bring him (her) with me. Wife's going out looking with the other child.'
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