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Crimewatch finding also does weaken GM alibi. Is this scenario feasible?

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Crimewatch finding also does weaken GM alibi. Is this scenario feasible?

Post by Fierljepper on 24.10.13 19:48

The recent insight that the man seen by JT can be ruled out as a suspect, actually also loads more suspicion back on GM. In this documentary http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atfDV7imHHY in which JT and GM sort of re-enact what happened that night, JT then suddenly makes the quite interesting remark at 10:20 that, when she spotted GM talking to his tennis buddy JW on the other side of the road,  apparently Kate had been complaining to her that G was ‘probably watching football again’. That is quite a strange remark, why the impatience and it could imply that he could already have been away much longer than can be explained by him checking on Maddie and speaking to his friend for a few minutes. I also heard him say in another (I think the Panaroma) documentary that the twins were sleeping so deeply, that it looked like “they had been drugged”.


I still find the idea of an organized group of predators hanging out there for days and waiting for the right moment to snatch (only!) Maddie from the apartment, too farfetched.  A simpler and potentially more plausible scenario could be:


1.      GM checks on Maddie and finds out she has died and immediately knows that this is caused by the sleeping/calming drugs he has given her (they wanted a quite night out, also refer to the report of the neighbor one floor up about her hearing the children the night before).



2.      He completely freaks out (note that no-one will know how they would act in such a shock scenario) and in panic comes up with the idea to enact a kidnap to save his face. This is the only way out he sees. I know the disposal of the body is the hard part in this story, but with the ocean nearby, that is by far the most logical disposal option to immediately consider. He could have therefore carried her to the ocean and was then only spotted by Mr Smith (who could have gotten the time ~30 minutes wrong) and then pushed her in the ocean. I estimate this can be done in 15 minutes. Even if her body would have been found the next day, the enactment of a kidnap would save him.


3.      He then rushed back to the apartment and to make a kidnap look more credible he decided to open the window, a fact that is in line with the observation of MO that the door was wide open already we he checked. Gerry could have even suggested that his friend MO rather than Kate would next check the children, since he wanted to prevent his wife from finding out the terrible truth.


4.     On his way back, he was then very lucky to bump into his tennis friend to have some sort of alibi for staying away longer than planned (hence the remark by Kate to Tanner, also note GM’s comment in the Panorama doc http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zqoj-pfBUnY  “it was incredibly quiet that night” as if he was still surprised how he could have carried the body to the ocean unnoticed) and then also got extremely lucky by Tanner watching both of them chatting AND then the man carrying the child. The latter observation has then created the tunnel vision that also provided Gerry with a perfect alibi (that is now very much weakened).


This simple scenario quite reasonably fits the known data points, available evidence and timelines (except for the timing of the Smith observation, but how exact can that be reconciled?) and also doesn’t require too much stretch of the imagination. 



Thoughts?

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Re: Crimewatch finding also does weaken GM alibi. Is this scenario feasible?

Post by suzyjohnson on 24.10.13 20:32

I also thought that GM could have acted on the spur of the moment having gone to check and discovered that something terrible had happened, however as people pointed out to me the evidence of the dogs suggests otherwise. It would take 90 mins at least for a dead body to leave a scent that a dog could identify. And so, if GM had found MM at 9.10 pm then a fatality would have had to have occurred prior to 7.40 pm, which of course would mean that KM would have known this before going to the Tapas at 8.30 pm.

Also, although it is possible that GM was the man seen by the Smith family, if GM had gone to the beach before seeing JW at 9.15 pm (at the latest) then the entire Smith family would have been at least 50 mins out in their estimate of the time (I think there is a receipt for the time the Smith family left the restaurant, about 9.30 pm iirc, and then they stopped for a drink at a bar) So they encountered the man at around 9.50 pm - 10 pm.

JT's remark about GM watching the football is very odd. I think it's in her statement too. Apparently, one of the group asked why GM was taking so long, and KM remarked that he was probably watching the football. Of course GM had left the Tapas at 9.04 pm (according to his watch) and JT had left the Tapas at 9.14  pm (for her to have seen GM / JW and Tannerman at 9.15 pm) Is it likely that someone would have asked what was taking GM so long, if it were only 10 mins? I suppose, if the starters had arrived?

But it seems more likely that JT didn't make her first check at all, didn't see GM talking to JW (who also didn't see her) In that context, if Jane didn't leave the Tapas until after ROB sent a message back via MO about 9.35 pm, then I suppose the comment about the football could have been made around that time?

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Re: Crimewatch finding also does weaken GM alibi. Is this scenario feasible?

Post by Fierljepper on 24.10.13 21:57

@suzyjohnson wrote:I also thought that GM could have acted on the spur of the moment having gone to check and discovered that something terrible had happened, however as people pointed out to me the evidence of the dogs suggests otherwise. It would take 90 mins at least for a dead body to leave a scent that a dog could identify. And so, if GM had found MM at 9.10 pm then a fatality would have had to have occurred prior to 7.40 pm, which of course would mean that KM would have known this before going to the Tapas at 8.30 pm.

Also, although it is possible that GM was the man seen by the Smith family, if GM had gone to the beach before seeing JW at 9.15 pm (at the latest) then the entire Smith family would have been at least 50 mins out in their estimate of the time (I think there is a receipt for the time the Smith family left the restaurant, about 9.30 pm iirc, and then they stopped for a drink at a bar) So they encountered the man at around 9.50 pm - 10 pm.

JT's remark about GM watching the football is very odd. I think it's in her statement too. Apparently, one of the group asked why GM was taking so long, and KM remarked that he was probably watching the football. Of course GM had left the Tapas at 9.04 pm (according to his watch) and JT had left the Tapas at 9.14  pm (for her to have seen GM / JW and Tannerman at 9.15 pm) Is it likely that someone would have asked what was taking GM so long, if it were only 10 mins? I suppose, if the starters had arrived?

But it seems more likely that JT didn't make her first check at all, didn't see GM talking to JW (who also didn't see her) In that context, if Jane didn't leave the Tapas until after ROB sent a message back via MO about 9.35 pm, then I suppose the comment about the football could have been made around that time?
Thanks Suzy,

You clearly know a lot about the case. Wasn't aware of the reconciliation of the Smith observation with the restaurant receipt and that makes a lot of sense. A time around 9.50 pm - 10 pm gives GM a pretty strong alibi. Not sure about the evidence of the dogs and the exactness of 90 mins before the scent of a dead body would be picked up. I don't believe that is an exact science. But then temporarily hiding a body and the later disposing it via a rental car, sounds very farfetched as a scenario.

What a strange case this is. The 'he is watching football' remark is a clear indication that GM was already taking quite some time before JT decided to check for her child. On the other hand, you are right about the starters arriving (reason for JT to check her kids). That is a trigger to get a bit impatient and ask what takes him so long.

Your JT comment is interesting although she comes across as very sincere. Note that in that re-enactment video in which JT makes the 'football' remark, they also can't agree on how they were exactly standing on the road that night. Interesting confusing moment, that was quickly washed away by a comment that one can't remember every detail. But what does that imply? That GM and JT are colluding? That JT knows more about what happened?

Back to the drawing board.

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Re: Crimewatch finding also does weaken GM alibi. Is this scenario feasible?

Post by Okeydokey on 25.10.13 0:42

@Fierljepper wrote:
@suzyjohnson wrote:I also thought that GM could have acted on the spur of the moment having gone to check and discovered that something terrible had happened, however as people pointed out to me the evidence of the dogs suggests otherwise. It would take 90 mins at least for a dead body to leave a scent that a dog could identify. And so, if GM had found MM at 9.10 pm then a fatality would have had to have occurred prior to 7.40 pm, which of course would mean that KM would have known this before going to the Tapas at 8.30 pm.

Also, although it is possible that GM was the man seen by the Smith family, if GM had gone to the beach before seeing JW at 9.15 pm (at the latest) then the entire Smith family would have been at least 50 mins out in their estimate of the time (I think there is a receipt for the time the Smith family left the restaurant, about 9.30 pm iirc, and then they stopped for a drink at a bar) So they encountered the man at around 9.50 pm - 10 pm.

JT's remark about GM watching the football is very odd. I think it's in her statement too. Apparently, one of the group asked why GM was taking so long, and KM remarked that he was probably watching the football. Of course GM had left the Tapas at 9.04 pm (according to his watch) and JT had left the Tapas at 9.14  pm (for her to have seen GM / JW and Tannerman at 9.15 pm) Is it likely that someone would have asked what was taking GM so long, if it were only 10 mins? I suppose, if the starters had arrived?

But it seems more likely that JT didn't make her first check at all, didn't see GM talking to JW (who also didn't see her) In that context, if Jane didn't leave the Tapas until after ROB sent a message back via MO about 9.35 pm, then I suppose the comment about the football could have been made around that time?
Thanks Suzy,

You clearly know a lot about the case. Wasn't aware of the reconciliation of the Smith observation with the restaurant receipt and that makes a lot of sense. A time around 9.50 pm - 10 pm gives GM a pretty strong alibi. Not sure about the evidence of the dogs and the exactness of 90 mins before the scent of a dead body would be picked up. I don't believe that is an exact science. But then temporarily hiding a body and the later disposing it via a rental car, sounds very farfetched as a scenario.

What a strange case this is. The 'he is watching football' remark is a clear indication that GM was already taking quite some time before JT decided to check for her child. On the other hand, you are right about the starters arriving (reason for JT to check her kids). That is a trigger to get a bit impatient and ask what takes him so long.

Your JT comment is interesting although she comes across as very sincere. Note that in that re-enactment video in which JT makes the 'football' remark, they also can't agree on how they were exactly standing on the road that night. Interesting confusing moment, that was quickly washed away by a comment that one can't remember every detail. But what does that imply? That GM and JT are colluding? That JT knows more about what happened?

Back to the drawing board.
I think that's the point to focus on - just what a plethora of strange statements there are...you don't get that in cases which are, shall we say, "straightforward".

Another argument against this scenario is that the Tapas 9's reactions reactions as a group do not bear scrutiny. Why, if JT immediately knew (following the announcement of MMc's disappearance) her 9.15 sighting must have been of the "abductor" then why didn't she and the others she told immediately begin searching in the direction of that sighting? To engage in random searching rather than a concerted effort in that direction makes no sense.

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Re: Crimewatch finding also does weaken GM alibi. Is this scenario feasible?

Post by suzyjohnson on 25.10.13 1:55

Yes, Fierljepper, back to the drawing board.

Like you I've been trying to juggle that hour into something that makes sense.

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Re: Crimewatch finding also does weaken GM alibi. Is this scenario feasible?

Post by Sockpuppet on 25.10.13 2:23

In my opinion a reading of all the Tapas bar staff's statements (and timings) would help here.  They do not agree with the Tapas 9's timings.

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Re: Crimewatch finding also does weaken GM alibi. Is this scenario feasible?

Post by Estelle on 25.10.13 4:11

@Sockpuppet wrote:In my opinion a reading of all the Tapas bar staff's statements (and timings) would help here.  They do not agree with the Tapas 9's timings.
It is even uncertain that Jane Tanner left the table that night according to two of the waiters.

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Re: Crimewatch finding also does weaken GM alibi. Is this scenario feasible?

Post by Curioser on 01.11.13 13:28

@Sockpuppet wrote:In my opinion a reading of all the Tapas bar staff's statements (and timings) would help here.  They do not agree with the Tapas 9's timings.
Hi all, 

That was the starting point for the work I've been doing. I disregarded all statements from the Tapas 9 and worked only on independent witness statements. It's not an original thought others have done it too. 

There is a good theory based on this technique at http://unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.com.au/p/theory-english.html  It was done way before mine and comes to the conclusion that perhaps Maddie died on the Wednesday night and Thursday was spent trying to cover up her absence. There are some very good arguments to support this.

I concluded that it all happened on Thursday night, very similar to you Fierljepper. It also explains how the cadaver scent could have developed. It's just another theory but I'd be glad to hear your opinion. It is at:
http://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t7822-theory-purported-by-curioser-title-changed-from-any-advice-etc

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Re: Crimewatch finding also does weaken GM alibi. Is this scenario feasible?

Post by Okeydokey on 02.11.13 1:17

@Curioser wrote:
@Sockpuppet wrote:In my opinion a reading of all the Tapas bar staff's statements (and timings) would help here.  They do not agree with the Tapas 9's timings.
Hi all, 

That was the starting point for the work I've been doing. I disregarded all statements from the Tapas 9 and worked only on independent witness statements. It's not an original thought others have done it too. 

There is a good theory based on this technique at http://unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.com.au/p/theory-english.html  It was done way before mine and comes to the conclusion that perhaps Maddie died on the Wednesday night and Thursday was spent trying to cover up her absence. There are some very good arguments to support this.

I concluded that it all happened on Thursday night, very similar to you Fierljepper. It also explains how the cadaver scent could have developed. It's just another theory but I'd be glad to hear your opinion. It is at:
http://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t7822-theory-purported-by-curioser-title-changed-from-any-advice-etc
It covers a lot of the ground.

I'd like to throw in another hypothetical I heard someone mention:

What if it was MO who discovered Madeleine's absence. What if he then called the McCanns and what if Kate then went to check...and what if then she returned to make the announcement to the table at around 9.40pm?  That would explain his v. odd account of the 9.30 visit (where he has to avoid seeing MMcC).  It could also suggest that there was a mass panic and a decision to hide the truth taken within a v. short period of time.  So then - in the panic - you maybe get a hurried debate that is motivated by the fact they have left DW behind. They can't leave her there forever, never explaining what has gone on...they have to come up with a story and fast...The JT sighting would then be viewed as a brazen attempt to throw the "abduction" back to around 9.15 making use of the GMcC and JW sighting as credence. But perhaps in the confusion G McC forgot that he was supposed to see JT come past or in retrospect saw the danger of confirming that.

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