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Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

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Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by PeterMac on 14.07.13 13:59

The previous one has clearly resulted in failure.   No one was able to come up with a credible scenario which fitted the criteria set, or rather which the McCanns set.

So this is the renewed challenge, but the rules are different.
1  You MUST include, or account for, or explain away, any forensic evidence, or lack of it.
2  You MUST include, or account for, or explain away, the evidence provided by the dogs
3  You MUST include, or account for, or explain away, the evidence provided by independent witnesses

4  You MAY discount any self-serving statement made by the McCanns themselves.  Where they give alternative versions, you should state which one you rely on, or that you have discounted both, or all.
5  You MAY discount any self-serving statement made by the Tapas 7,  And where they give alternative versions, you should state which one you rely on, or that you have discounted both, or all.

In the above cases you should state your preferred alternative explanation, which may be anything from "complete fabrication" to misinterpretation, misunderstanding and so on

6  You MAY move events from one day to another, using the McCalender.  
7  You MAY NOT move events detailed by independent witnesses without good reason and proper explanation as to why they were mistaken

And again, stick to Occam's Razor. No Aliens, No Illuminati, No Common Purpose, microchips, Global Domination . . .
Just a little girl who is missing, and sadly, presumed dead.

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by aiyoyo on 14.07.13 14:36

Oh dear, tall order indeed.

No wonder the experts in the field, the Yard Detectives spent two years and still haven't concluded clear and definitively one way or another.

All they can say safely (like a double bet) is that Maddie may be alive or sadly she may be dead.
It's win win situation until the 38 POI are eliminated, then the seabass behind the sofa and 6 corpses on the pants which won't go away must be explained to the Court.

No need to ambush hellish lair, and no need to trace the child-snatching couple.

The answer is pretty obvious - all roads lead to the parents.


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Info / Comment...

Post by Swizzlestick on 14.07.13 14:49

@aiyoyo wrote:Oh dear, tall order indeed.

No wonder the experts in the field, the Yard Detectives spent two years and still haven't concluded clear and definitively one way or another.

All they can say safely (like a double bet)  is that Maddie may be alive or sadly she may be dead.  
It's  win win situation until the 38 POI are eliminated, then the seabass behind the sofa and 6 corpses on the pants which won't go away must be explained to the Court.

No need to ambush hellish lair, and no need to trace the child-snatching couple.

The answer is pretty obvious - all roads lead to the parents.

Sorry, I'm being a bit naughty here; I didn't want to start a new thread because I'm sure that this will have been covered before, but just wondered if somebody would like to comment on the following...

Thinking about the cadaver odour found by the dogs, I was wondering why there wasn't any found on Gerry's clothing, imo, if he was the person seen by the Smith family... Did anybody notice what he was wearing that night at all? (not doubting the dogs at all, I'm very convinced by them).


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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by aiyoyo on 14.07.13 15:06

@Swizzlestick wrote:
@aiyoyo wrote:Oh dear, tall order indeed.

No wonder the experts in the field, the Yard Detectives spent two years and still haven't concluded clear and definitively one way or another.

All they can say safely (like a double bet)  is that Maddie may be alive or sadly she may be dead.  
It's  win win situation until the 38 POI are eliminated, then the seabass behind the sofa and 6 corpses on the pants which won't go away must be explained to the Court.

No need to ambush hellish lair, and no need to trace the child-snatching couple.

The answer is pretty obvious - all roads lead to the parents.

Sorry, I'm being a bit naughty here; I didn't want to start a new thread because I'm sure that this will have been covered before, but just wondered if somebody would like to comment on the following...

Thinking about the cadaver odour found by the dogs, I was wondering why there wasn't any found on Gerry's clothing, imo, if he was the person seen by the Smith family... Did anybody notice what he was wearing that night at all? (not doubting the dogs at all, I'm very convinced by them).


Good and valid question, and something that posters have been trying to figure out too. The only obvious answer is he's destroyed or discarded them.

BTW, if you click on the first icon on the extreme right, the quote will be de-boxed, and put you in edit mode. Otherwise it's hard to distinguish who posts what.

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by russiandoll on 14.07.13 15:28

@aiyoyo wrote:
@Swizzlestick wrote:
@aiyoyo wrote:Oh dear, tall order indeed.

No wonder the experts in the field, the Yard Detectives spent two years and still haven't concluded clear and definitively one way or another.

All they can say safely (like a double bet)  is that Maddie may be alive or sadly she may be dead.  
It's  win win situation until the 38 POI are eliminated, then the seabass behind the sofa and 6 corpses on the pants which won't go away must be explained to the Court.

No need to ambush hellish lair, and no need to trace the child-snatching couple.

The answer is pretty obvious - all roads lead to the parents.

Sorry, I'm being a bit naughty here; I didn't want to start a new thread because I'm sure that this will have been covered before, but just wondered if somebody would like to comment on the following...

Thinking about the cadaver odour found by the dogs, I was wondering why there wasn't any found on Gerry's clothing, imo, if he was the person seen by the Smith family... Did anybody notice what he was wearing that night at all? (not doubting the dogs at all, I'm very convinced by them).


Good and valid question, and something that posters have been trying to figure out too.  The only obvious answer is he's destroyed or discarded them.

BTW, if you click on the first icon on the extreme right, the quote will be de-boxed, and put you in edit mode.   Otherwise it's hard to distinguish who posts what.
 
   re Gerry and the lack of cadaver odour on his clothes. Imo this is only an issue if he was carrying a dead child at the time of the Smith sighting.
 Maddie was long gone by then imo, the child was a child of similar age and colouring.
 One of the twins had been mentioned, the taller one would pass for 3 years, maybe the hair not feminine enough, though,
 Perhaps it was the OBrien girl, the same age as Maddie.
 Russell and Jane were very busy away from the table at the crucial time.
 just a thought and all imho.

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by PeterMac on 14.07.13 19:11

Did the McCanns leave the patio door unlocked - NO
Did they enter through the front door - YES
Did Mrs Fenn hear crying on 1st - YES
Did Kate sleep in the children's room on 2nd - YES
Did she put the light on in the room before getting into bed - NO
Did she notice that Madeleine was not in her bed - NO
Did Gerry look in before he went to bed - NO
Did they each creep about not putting the lights on, so as not to wake the children - YES
Did they notice Madeleine behind the sofa - NO
Did they find her stiff and cold the morning of 3rd - YES
Is this why they could not allow a Post Mortem - YES, amongst other reasons
Did they then arrange to fudge the creche sheets that day - YES
Did they make lots of phone calls - YES
DId they then work out a strategy which would involve only a very few others needing to know - YES
Did they then start to make strange statements about what Madeleine had said and done on 3rd - YES
Did they make any such statements about any other day of the holiday - NO
Did they involve other members of the group to set up alibis and sightings, but leave them in ignorance of what they were being asked to do - YES
Did that strategy go according to plan - NO

You see where this is taking me

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by tigger on 14.07.13 20:06

But Gerry's voicemail messages were all on the 2nd of May.

rec'd 12 voicemails 2/5. Didn't respond to any, so clearly absorbing info - but from whom?

On the third of May we have:
Gerry and Murat's calls on the 3rd with the 23.40 call coinciding with that of Gerry.
Gerry Murat
12.24
23.14
23.17
23.39
23.40 23.40
23.52

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by russiandoll on 14.07.13 20:18

Mentioned elsewhere my growing belief that an accident went a long time undiscovered and agree with PMac that very probable the morning after.
   Kate is routine-based and gives us chapter and verse about breakfast, crèche, lunch, play, crèche, [ usually acc to the book I note on 2nd reading...kids tea]
 maybe play then bath  milk biscuits bed.
 She and Gerry prep for tapas meal, glass wine, chat in apartment. Kids settled [presumably, not confirmed]
 Checks, return. All starts again next day.
 No mention of them looking in on the children before settling down for the night themselves.

re the date.. not sure. crèche anomalies began morning 29th.

 did they swap events and days....things happened as claimed but not when, e.g. did Kate sleep in the kids' room but earlier than Wed?

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Thanks, And Sorry.

Post by Swizzlestick on 14.07.13 21:49

Thanks for the info Aiyoyo and Russiandoll. Sorry about my post merging with a previous one; I hope this is posted correctly.

I was wondering if Russiandoll, or if somebody else would like to comment, on the creche anomalies for the 3rd. I'm happy to look it up, but I'm so tired in this heat that I'd probably miss the point I think; and thinking about the at least 90 minutes dead for a cadaver to give-off odour that can be detected by the dogs, it makes sense that sadly, she may have died, IMO, earlier than the 3rd.....

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by PeterMac on 14.07.13 22:48

@russiandoll wrote:Mentioned elsewhere my growing belief that an accident went a long time undiscovered and agree with PMac that very probable the morning after.
Kate is routine-based and gives us chapter and verse about breakfast, crèche, lunch, play, crèche, [ usually acc to the book I note on 2nd reading...kids tea]
 maybe play then bath  milk biscuits bed.
 She and Gerry prep for tapas meal, glass wine, chat in apartment. Kids settled [presumably, not confirmed]
 Checks, return. All starts again next day.
 No mention of them looking in on the children before settling down for the night themselves.
SNIP
Quite so. Book published 2011.
Retro-fitting with too much detail about the events of 3rd. And indeed far too much detail about the routine.

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kate

Post by marconi on 15.07.13 0:13

Terrible days are being expected, for Kate and Gerry.
Both have already experience with the PJ and the next police are approaching them.
I believe Kate will crack short after the Yard start to interrogate her.
It is even possible that she will crack before entering the room. Not having Gerry at her side, helping with the answers, like he did on interviews, she will soon confess.  I hope the Yard will not make both a kind of arguidos, otherwise they wil refuse to answer any question. 

Who can help me?  the last statement of the Met police, not by Redwood. Where can I find it, please?

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by russiandoll on 15.07.13 9:02

Reading the book for a 2nd time. Note Kate said that a check would often give an opportunity to use the toilet or grab an extra cardigan.
   MO in a statement said that he needed the toilet between courses and decided to do a check on his apartment. It was MO or maybe ROB who stated that McCann checks were done by the clock [ will check !]
 it is not usual for bladders to work by the clock, however, even though before leaving home for a journey you might try and use the toilet even though no need felt.

 Seems like others in the group checked at their convenience [ forgive the pun! ]  between courses, need the toilet. Do a check. Makes sense as far as YOU are concerned and as long as you are happy to leave tiny ones unsupervised for long stretches.

McCanns checked by the clock. Some occasions they would not have needed the toilet but Kate is clear that on others she at least did and we know of Gerry on his check 3rd.

Can't see the bathroom on any plan apart from a photo of McCann children's room, can see what looks like the washbasin on the wall of the adjoining children's room and right next to Maddie's bed. Was the toilet on the same wall ? Was it flushed on every use, was the noise enough to disturb Maddie, was it used last thing before leaving post-check?  Adult exited apartment immediately without being aware of waking child?

 Asking because I think that something as simple and mundane as this could well have been what started a sequence of events leading to tragedy.

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by Lance De Boils on 15.07.13 9:45

All that coming and going, one after another...
...the only time I've ever been with a group of people who carried on like that, they were all nipping off for a "line".

I'm wondering (purely wondering), if RM came back because he's the local fixer and was told a bulk order was requested - so he dashed back to make an easy few hundred quid.

How much is a gram of cocaine these days? £50-60? if 8 x adults wanted 1 each, say, that'd be £400. Chances are that for a few days, they would have had 2 or three times that amount. (Depends how "into it" they were/are.) That'd make it worth RM jumping on a flight back. Possibly. Perhaps. Not saying anything. Just saying. imo etc.

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by Woofer on 15.07.13 10:35

@Lance De Boils wrote:All that coming and going, one after another...
...the only time I've ever been with a group of people who carried on like that, they were all nipping off for a "line".

I'm wondering (purely wondering), if RM came back because he's the local fixer and was told a bulk order was requested - so he dashed back to make an easy few hundred quid.

How much is a gram of cocaine these days? £50-60? if 8 x adults wanted 1 each, say, that'd be £400. Chances are that for a few days, they would have had 2 or three times that amount. (Depends how "into it" they were/are.) That'd make it worth RM jumping on a flight back. Possibly. Perhaps. Not saying anything. Just saying. imo etc.

 Do we know anyone who often has an itchey nose?

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by Monty Heck on 15.07.13 11:10

@russiandoll wrote:Reading the book for a 2nd time. Note Kate said that a check would often give an opportunity to use the toilet or grab an extra cardigan.
   MO in a statement said that he needed the toilet between courses and decided to do a check on his apartment. It was MO or maybe ROB who stated that McCann checks were done by the clock [ will check !]
 it is not usual for bladders to work by the clock, however, even though before leaving home for a journey you might try and use the toilet even though no need felt.

 Seems like others in the group checked at their convenience [ forgive the pun! ]  between courses, need the toilet. Do a check. Makes sense as far as YOU are concerned and as long as you are happy to leave tiny ones unsupervised for long stretches.

McCanns checked by the clock. Some occasions they would not have needed the toilet but Kate is clear that on others she at least did and we know of Gerry on his check 3rd.

Can't see the bathroom on any plan apart from a photo of McCann children's room, can see what looks like the washbasin on the wall of the adjoining children's room and right next to Maddie's bed. Was the toilet on the same wall ? Was it flushed on every use, was the noise enough to disturb Maddie, was it used last thing before leaving post-check?  Adult exited apartment immediately without being aware of waking child?

 Asking because I think that something as simple and mundane as this could well have been what started a sequence of events leading to tragedy.
Good point.  There was a toilet within/adjacent to the Tapas area, therefore seems odd to use (and flush, presumably) the apartment WC, especially when  even switching on a light is avoided in case it wakes the children.

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by Lance De Boils on 15.07.13 11:20

@Woofer wrote:
@Lance De Boils wrote:All that coming and going, one after another...
...the only time I've ever been with a group of people who carried on like that, they were all nipping off for a "line".

I'm wondering (purely wondering), if RM came back because he's the local fixer and was told a bulk order was requested - so he dashed back to make an easy few hundred quid.

How much is a gram of cocaine these days? £50-60? if 8 x adults wanted 1 each, say, that'd be £400. Chances are that for a few days, they would have had 2 or three times that amount. (Depends how "into it" they were/are.) That'd make it worth RM jumping on a flight back. Possibly. Perhaps. Not saying anything. Just saying. imo etc.

 Do we know anyone who often has an itchey nose?
Gerry seems to have itchy everything!



(I like that picture, so I shamelessly pinched it from another thread!)

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by guest. on 15.07.13 18:45

@Woofer wrote:
@Lance De Boils wrote:All that coming and going, one after another...
...the only time I've ever been with a group of people who carried on like that, they were all nipping off for a "line".

I'm wondering (purely wondering), if RM came back because he's the local fixer and was told a bulk order was requested - so he dashed back to make an easy few hundred quid.

How much is a gram of cocaine these days? £50-60? if 8 x adults wanted 1 each, say, that'd be £400. Chances are that for a few days, they would have had 2 or three times that amount. (Depends how "into it" they were/are.) That'd make it worth RM jumping on a flight back. Possibly. Perhaps. Not saying anything. Just saying. imo etc.

 Do we know anyone who often has an itchey nose?

IMO Lance De Boils that's what I think Murat came back for and why GM said no comment

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by susible on 20.07.13 19:00

@PeterMac wrote:Did the McCanns leave the patio door unlocked - NO
Did they enter through the front door - YES
Did Mrs Fenn hear crying on 1st - YES
Did Kate sleep in the children's room on 2nd - YES
Did she put the light on in the room before getting into bed - NO
Did she notice that Madeleine was not in her bed - NO
Did Gerry look in before he went to bed - NO
Did they each creep about not putting the lights on, so as not to wake the children - YES
Did they notice Madeleine behind the sofa - NO
Did they find her stiff and cold the morning of 3rd - YES
Is this why they could not allow a Post Mortem - YES, amongst other reasons
Did they then arrange to fudge the creche sheets that day - YES
Did they make lots of phone calls - YES
DId they then work out a strategy which would involve only a very few others needing to know - YES
Did they then start to make strange statements about what Madeleine had said and done on 3rd - YES
Did they make any such statements about any other day of the holiday - NO
Did they involve other members of the group to set up alibis and sightings, but leave them in ignorance of what they were being asked to do - YES
Did that strategy go according to plan - NO

You see where this is taking me

That all sounds very plausible PeterMac. However, I have on anomaly from an independent witness earlier on the evening of the 3rd, sorry dying with the heat here and can't remember who it was, but I seem to remember people coming back from dinner around 9pm and hearing people shouting for Madeleine outside and then some screaming (and I also remember that Madeleine had apparently wandered off and hid on a previous evening)

Although the creche records do look dodgy and there are other inconsistencies that make me doubt a potential death on the 3rd, the absolutely rubbish timeline, the contradictions, the Benny Hill-esque checking routine that's just not feasible, does make me think that something happened on the evening of the 3rd, all of the Tapas friends had been drinking (and possibly taking drugs) and they knew that they would all be in serious trouble if they reported it, so concocted the abduction scenario and that is why the friends helped them to cover it up. I also think that if Gerry had more time to plan it out, it would have been far better thought out and executed, rather than the ridiculous and impossible timeline that they presented.

Yours is a good theory though, but I still think that would have given Gerry more time to "fix the abduction" properly.

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just a thought

Post by ixchel13 on 20.07.13 20:05

hi, I'm a newbie here....just wondering if anyone has thought that maybe more people in the Tapas 7 were giving their kids meds--maybe even supplied them to the McCanns?--the kids were vomiting and had diarrea-this might account for them helping the McCanns lie, especially if someone other than Maddie's parents supplied the other parents with sedatives, so in essence, they were all doing it and only one set of parents ended up with a deceased
child, the McCanns could have threatened to bring them all down, especially during this lucrative business deal they were hatching.

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by Lance De Boils on 20.07.13 20:37

I would actually be more inclined to believe it was the adults who were on "meds". As I posted before, all the coming and going sounds like people nipping off to snort lines of coke.
But of course, they wouldn't be able to say that, so they made out they had to keep going back to the apts to check the children.
Now, supposing one of them prepared a few lines ready for the others and supposing Maddie had ingested some which led to her death... They certainly wouldn't want a post-mortem carried out under those circumstances, would they? Otherwise they'd ALL be in serious trouble. A bunch of medics on coke? One of them being a cardiologist? Ooh, the fallout from that would be huge.
All pure speculation on my part, of course. Just throwing a theory out there. smilie

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by susible on 20.07.13 21:01

I agree Lance, that is why I think they all panicked and came up with the abduction plan...every one of them would have been ruined in those circumstances. I believe that the truth in this situation is rather straightforward and I don't think there is any big conspiracy theory or protection on a grand scale or anything like that.

Sure they had the contacts right at the start, which materialised as help on an unprecedented scale, but that help soon disappeared, and I think the only reason the McCanns were not condemned as the facts started to surface is because too many people would have seriously red faces from jumping in with the support that they did. No one wants to be seen as a bad judge of character. And of course the fund, with its mega bucks to pay for expensive lawyers to control what is being said in the public domain..that money is running out now though, so they can't hide behind it for much longer.

I also think the only reason the case has not been solved and the Mc's charged, is due to a simple lack of concrete, irrefutable evidence and of course the biggy, what actually happened to Madeleine? Where is she? But I do have faith that these questions will be answered and the case can proceed successfully

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by whmon on 20.07.13 21:18

@Lance De Boils wrote:I would actually be more inclined to believe it was the adults who were on "meds". As I posted before, all the coming and going sounds like people nipping off to snort lines of coke.
But of course, they wouldn't be able to say that, so they made out they had to keep going back to the apts to check the children.
Now, supposing one of them prepared a few lines ready for the others and supposing Maddie had ingested some which led to her death... They certainly wouldn't want a post-mortem carried out under those circumstances, would they? Otherwise they'd ALL be in serious trouble. A bunch of medics on coke? One of them being a cardiologist? Ooh, the fallout from that would be huge.
All pure speculation on my part, of course. Just throwing a theory out there. smilie

 If this is true then it would explain why two doctors couldn't seem to earn enough money to pay their mortgage. I had always wondered why the combined salaries of two doctors wasn't enough to pay their bills, a coke habit would explain that nicely.

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by sallypelt on 20.07.13 21:50

What has baffled me from the very beginning, is how two parents can go out to the Tapas bar and act normal, knowing their daughter was dead. The only way they could have done this, IMO, is, that they must have taken some sort of medication to keep them calm. I can't think of any other explanation.

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by Seek truth on 20.07.13 21:56

Do not try to solve the madeleine case!
This is what the pro mccanns want. 

Google and you'll find, they critisise  those who question.

Wonder what they're SO  worried about?

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Re: Can you come up with a REALLY credible scenario ? NEW Competition opens today. NEW RULES

Post by Lance De Boils on 20.07.13 22:32

@sallypelt wrote:What has baffled me from the very beginning, is how two parents can go out to the Tapas bar and act normal, knowing their daughter was dead. The only way they could have done this, IMO, is, that they must have taken some sort of medication to keep them calm. I can't think of any other explanation.

I was just pondering... how do we know they were acting normally? They might have tried to, but who would be able to tell the difference? Only their friends....

Lance De Boils

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