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Trying to make sense of it all.

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Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by Kepharel on 11.07.13 19:29

Okay, this is not a post that adds anything, any insight, into the mystery of what happened to Madeleine McCann, but it might be useful for those of us ‘researchers’ out there farming the fields of facts and theories that are available in the public domain.  It’s a post that has been inspired by PeterMacs thread about going back to the beginning and starting all over again.
 
Of those of us who do try to get a peek behind everything McCann, I was wondering if they might pass on some tips to others in the forums about the methodology they apply to their research, what programs they use to keep data, and how they use those programs to access facts they have researched in their understanding of topics that arise from time to time in debate on these forums.  C’mon I’m sure there must be a few Sherlock Holmes wannabes out there!! 
 
I for one have used Microsoft ‘One Note’ to copy and paste information from the net, and use it’s quite handy search facility to find such things as, for example, Tapas names that occur in various articles I have stored on it.  So looking up, say, Matthew Oldfield, will give me hits on PJ Interviews, Goncalo Amaral’s book, Blacksmith and Dr Martin Roberts blogs, quotes from Kate McCann’s book, and all the rest of it; all faithfully cut and pasted by me, without me having to trawl through the whole lot with fingers crossed I might get lucky or not, and missed something important.  One Note is a really cheap program that I still use.
 
I have also found Google+ Calendar features great for building timelines etc. When it comes to programs, I must have tried the lot at some time, provided they were freeware that is, AND I TRUSTED the download site.  You name it; Project Management software, Gantt Chart generators, Personal Organisers as well as spreadsheets, databases and well, you name it.  What I have found is that not any one of those programs is the magic tool.  At some point the whole thing becomes overwhelming for me as I become submerged in the detail that I am trying to tame in order for my own deeper understanding.
 
But programs are only a tool for the researcher, more important is his methodology for collecting facts.  What websites HE or SHE trusts to gather the facts, and to this end this forum lists some great sites to visit.  Even then what is important to one individual might not be to another, so how do we decide which facts are worthy of inclusion.  As I said at the beginning, PeterMac’s thread has made me think, and I am going to try something new, as we all should from time to time in making clear our understanding of things.
 
What no-one has, as far as I am aware, is a thoroughly detailed timeline on the events between 28th April and 4th may 2007; wouldn't that be great for a foundation of debate.  As far as I know, there isn't one, and even if there were how much of an act of faith would it take to believe it.  So I thought why not at least try to make a plausible one for myself, without getting sidetracked by all the inconsistencies that drive us crazy, that can be adjusted to come up with new facts as they arise.  Statisticians would call the original timeline a ‘null hypothesis’, a default position that can subsequently be shown to be false. In that way a consensus will eventually emerge for that timeline.  And that is what I am going to do (google+ calendar … thanks for the help along the way SO FAR).
 
I have also decided to , and currently am, using a piece of software developed for writing books that I bought many years ago when I thought I had within me the Great American Novel.  What was I thinking!!! It dawned on me that a piece of software that allowed authors to keep track of their plot, characters, locations, plot items, event times etc. might be a good tool to create such a timeline.  It is basically a flat file database with some interesting and potentially useful features such as one that allows the author to bring each character's views and perspectives to an event…i.e. Tapas 9 PJ interviews on the events of May 3rd.  I thought I would start with an easy one and am currently looking at Dianne Webster, or rather all the data I have on her:).  It isn't easy, and it’s tedious, but I am keeping my fingers crossed that it will bring results. So if you don’t hear from me in a while that’s what I am doing, in between making up stories about faeries and baking bread puddings with my beautiful grand-daughter. :) 

So there you have it, why not share your research experiences about what works and what doesn't with others on the forum.

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by Guest on 11.07.13 20:10

Bread pudding! I haven't made that for at least 40 years. It's not the inspiration you were wanting to promote, but it's definitely been one for me winkwink 
I'll have a look more seriously afterwards ...

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by tigger on 11.07.13 20:17

Châtelaine wrote:Bread pudding! I haven't made that for at least 40 years. It's not the inspiration you were wanting to promote, but it's definitely been one for me winkwink 
I'll have a look more seriously afterwards ...

What a lovely thought! I adore bread pudding. I've just learned how to make a quiche without a crust or indeed without an oven. (memo to self: must get civilised, get TV, Microsoft Office and oven). Learned to cook the perfect omelette in France.

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by aquila on 11.07.13 20:25

@tigger wrote:
Châtelaine wrote:Bread pudding! I haven't made that for at least 40 years. It's not the inspiration you were wanting to promote, but it's definitely been one for me winkwink 
I'll have a look more seriously afterwards ...

What a lovely thought!  I adore bread pudding. I've just learned how to make a quiche without a crust or indeed without an oven. (memo to self: must get civilised, get TV, Microsoft Office and oven). Learned to cook the perfect omelette in France.

I'm unhealthy, I only know how to make bread and butter pudding and I've never made a decent quiche in my life - soggy, disgusting, wouldn't give it to a dog, couldn't even pretend to announce it as quiche.

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by Guest on 11.07.13 20:43

I always make quiches without crust [or oven-omelets, as I call them]. They're easy and can be varied many ways. My favourites: "aux fines herbes" and "Complet" [= mushrooms, ham and cheese]. If anyone wants a 'cannot go wrong" recipe, PM me.
Sorry to be O.T. laughat 

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by Kepharel on 11.07.13 20:48

I'm sure Admin won't mind this small digression off topic :) :).  but here's the very simple recipe my little girl and I will be using.

http://mrsduckandtheducklings.wordpress.com/2012/10/24/bread-pudding/...Its simple and it does the job.

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by Casey5 on 11.07.13 21:07

Good luck with that Kepharel, it's enough to drive you to drink. Others have already tried what you are trying and there are so many lies, obfuscations etc that it's difficult to pin events down.
Good sites for reference are mccann files, the maddie case files, gerrymccannsblogs and joana morais site.

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by Smokeandmirrors on 11.07.13 21:11

@Kepharel wrote:Okay, this is not a post that adds anything, any insight, into the mystery of what happened to Madeleine McCann, but it might be useful for those of us ‘researchers’ out there farming the fields of facts and theories that are available in the public domain.  It’s a post that has been inspired by PeterMacs thread about going back to the beginning and starting all over again.
 
Of those of us who do try to get a peek behind everything McCann, I was wondering if they might pass on some tips to others in the forums about the methodology they apply to their research, what programs they use to keep data, and how they use those programs to access facts they have researched in their understanding of topics that arise from time to time in debate on these forums.  C’mon I’m sure there must be a few Sherlock Holmes wannabes out there!! 
 
I for one have used Microsoft ‘One Note’ to copy and paste information from the net, and use it’s quite handy search facility to find such things as, for example, Tapas names that occur in various articles I have stored on it.  So looking up, say, Matthew Oldfield, will give me hits on PJ Interviews, Goncalo Amaral’s book, Blacksmith and Dr Martin Roberts blogs, quotes from Kate McCann’s book, and all the rest of it; all faithfully cut and pasted by me, without me having to trawl through the whole lot with fingers crossed I might get lucky or not, and missed something important.  One Note is a really cheap program that I still use.
 
I have also found Google+ Calendar features great for building timelines etc. When it comes to programs, I must have tried the lot at some time, provided they were freeware that is, AND I TRUSTED the download site.  You name it; Project Management software, Gantt Chart generators, Personal Organisers as well as spreadsheets, databases and well, you name it.  What I have found is that not any one of those programs is the magic tool.  At some point the whole thing becomes overwhelming for me as I become submerged in the detail that I am trying to tame in order for my own deeper understanding.
 
But programs are only a tool for the researcher, more important is his methodology for collecting facts.  What websites HE or SHE trusts to gather the facts, and to this end this forum lists some great sites to visit.  Even then what is important to one individual might not be to another, so how do we decide which facts are worthy of inclusion.  As I said at the beginning, PeterMac’s thread has made me think, and I am going to try something new, as we all should from time to time in making clear our understanding of things.
 
What no-one has, as far as I am aware, is a thoroughly detailed timeline on the events between 28th April and 4th may 2007; wouldn't that be great for a foundation of debate.  As far as I know, there isn't one, and even if there were how much of an act of faith would it take to believe it.  So I thought why not at least try to make a plausible one for myself, without getting sidetracked by all the inconsistencies that drive us crazy, that can be adjusted to come up with new facts as they arise.  Statisticians would call the original timeline a ‘null hypothesis’, a default position that can subsequently be shown to be false. In that way a consensus will eventually emerge for that timeline.  And that is what I am going to do (google+ calendar … thanks for the help along the way SO FAR).
 
I have also decided to , and currently am, using a piece of software developed for writing books that I bought many years ago when I thought I had within me the Great American Novel.  What was I thinking!!! It dawned on me that a piece of software that allowed authors to keep track of their plot, characters, locations, plot items, event times etc. might be a good tool to create such a timeline.  It is basically a flat file database with some interesting and potentially useful features such as one that allows the author to bring each character's views and perspectives to an event…i.e. Tapas 9 PJ interviews on the events of May 3rd.  I thought I would start with an easy one and am currently looking at Dianne Webster, or rather all the data I have on her:).  It isn't easy, and it’s tedious, but I am keeping my fingers crossed that it will bring results. So if you don’t hear from me in a while that’s what I am doing, in between making up stories about faeries and baking bread puddings with my beautiful grand-daughter. :) 

So there you have it, why not share your research experiences about what works and what doesn't with others on the forum.

 Blimey, that's very organised! At that rate Scotland Yard will be offering you a job big grin

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The David Payne Interviews

Post by The Rooster on 11.07.13 21:13

Well done Kepharel I've read your interpretation of Paynes babbling's. You must have the patience of a saint. Very interesting, I believe if he was half questioned he would crumble. Thanks for your contribution.

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by Guest on 11.07.13 21:25

My family and neighbours prefer if I refrain from baking but luckily I love salad. I've knocked together a dbase/tagging system that works well most of the time. In the beginning I worked hard on T7 statements and OC records but it's back to the old dilemma "garbage in/garbage out".

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by sheila.edwards on 11.07.13 22:02

yes well done, im afraid to say mine is just in my head im a skimmer. that would have sent me to sleep and so tedious but I try to contribute as best can.

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by Kepharel on 12.07.13 2:28

Finn wrote:My family and neighbours prefer if I refrain from baking but luckily I love salad. I've knocked together a dbase/tagging system that works well most of the time. In the beginning I worked hard on T7 statements and OC records but it's back to the old dilemma "garbage in/garbage out".

 Hi Finn,
I know the feeling. I've wanted to chuck my computer out the bedroom window many a time, and myself after it. I sometimes stare at a days work on an analysis and think...what's the point.  I think if you can come up, if not with an explanation then, at least with a list of questions that, if answered honestly, might just possibly expose what is preventing the truth from emerging, then at least that would be a start.  So instead of analysing the answers to our questions, maybe we should be analysing the premises which define the questions we are asking in the first place.  Maybe it's the questions that need to change and not the answers. just a thought.  Research of the known facts, which I have been suggesting, perhaps with challenging timelines, may redefine the questions, and the more thorough the research, the more focussed the questions...... Now I'm gonna have to read that again 'cos I've had a couple of beers :)

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by Kepharel on 12.07.13 8:28

There ya go…never post while inebriated J J , some of the above is not quite what I meant to say, obviously J, more the uttering of a Rowley Birkin QC comedy sketch. My mind, last night was focussing on the events of 28th April to 4th May only, and not the hundreds of issues that have arisen since then over the years concerning all the other stuff the parents have been embroiled in, important though they are. Hence my timeline preoccupation. It seems to me that the same questions over that crucial holiday period have been thrown around on the internet since the beginning.  Many have been put directly to the Tapas.  But we ask ourselves those same questions all the time and base our answers around those same old questions trying to come up with insights and understanding, so maybe it’s the questions that need to change; new questions mean new debates, and new debates give new insights.
 
I am sober now, promise!

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by guest. on 12.07.13 9:31

Hi Kepharel

If you could do that I for one (I'm sure many others too) would really appreciate it..

I've been looking for a gap where they maybe had a conference or a daily conference of 1 hour

DW is a good place to start as IMO she the most honest of the lot, I think she's omitting things but basically her timings are correct

Phillip Edmonds was allegedly on holiday on his own with his boys, most single parents I know (not all) go with other family members or friends on holiday so they have some adult company. Also IMO for a very rich man to go on holiday out of season to a MW resort is unusual. However if he was off to a conference and had a weeks freebie he could have thought i might as well take the children


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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by russiandoll on 12.07.13 10:50

I would like to ask Dianne W what she was alluding to when she described the running around on May 3rd......thinking the group was playing one if its games. Intriguing.....she said this to a detective and it was not followed up?
 She just moved on I guess....and was allowed to !

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by tigger on 12.07.13 13:05

Sticking to facts here:  There is extensive evidence of searches and a rather inexplicable statement on air by Gerry that there were no helicopters. As the Rev. Hubbard noted in his interviews is that the helicopter was deployed for several days at least.
From the PJ files we see the same.
Expecting a 'Metropolitan' response is pushing it a bit for a resort of some 1000 or so inhabitants I'd think. A Metropolitan response would be a little slow in say Skegness?
How long did it take to get a helicopter with heat seeking equipment to Machinlleth to look for April Jones?

The whole of the GNR report can be read on the link below:


23/3/2012 transcript of interview:
Fredrik Skavlan: There... there were, errr... you... you came in contact very... very quickly with the Portuguesian [sic] police...

Gerry McCann: Sure...

Fredrik Skavlan: Errr... How was that experience?

Gerry McCann: We were expecting a Metropolitan type response and I remember... I remember saying to the officers, 'where's the helicopters? I want helicopters with heat seeking equipment.' And, you know, the officer kind of laughed at us and said, you know, 'this isn't...', you know, 'we don’t have a Royal Navy' and... and this thing... and... and you just...



http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/GNR_SNIFFER.htm

4th May:
With the aim of organising more extended searches of the terrain, a meeting was organised at about 15.00 with all the civil protection competent entities, namely the President of the Lagos Municipal Chamber, the President of the Luz parish, the maritime authority and the district commander of search operations with the aim of their collaboration in the actions to be taken, the GNR being responsible for the coordination of the land searches and the Maritime authority would initiate specific searches within its area of competence.


8. It was understood that everything was prepared by these entities in the operation of searches that were designated for the area and great advantage would be gained from the knowledge of the terrain of the persons that would be used.


9. The CDOS was asked about the viability of using the SNBPC helicopter during the searches that would take place in the afternoon and it was defined that the helicopter would be used in the searches and would be in P da L at about 16.00.


10. Lines of action were established, from the organisation of the searches to be carried out and the definition of areas, according to their priority, using the different means considered adequate, by officers from the different security forces, by firemen and by civil protection officers.


11. At 16.00 searches using the helicopter were initiated, the helicopter was used for 90 minutes, covering the entire area from the coast line to the EN 125, between the limits of Atalaia and Ponta da Cama da Vaca, this being the limit of the area considered probable for the child to be found, according to the hypothesis that she had left the apartment where she was staying on foot.


12. During the helicopter search, the area previously referred to was covered, in phases, running from north to South, this method is quite efficient in open areas, where something that does not fit with the scenario being examined is easily identifiable, however in the areas being searched, given the quantity of buildings and garden areas present as well as the vegetation composed essentially of small and medium sized shrubs, the detection of a child is difficult, given her small size, whether she is immobile or has fallen in a position that does not reveal her physical contours or covered by vegetation.

13. Simultaneously the searches for the child continued, by means of the officers referred to previously, in all the areas surrounding the beach, and many local people were seen, who were looking for the child on their own initiative.


14. At 20.00 a new meeting was held with the entities involved, in the sense of making an evaluation of how the searches had been carried out up to that moment and given the absence of results, it was decided to continue them for the next days or until some result was achieved.

unquote

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Kepharel's suggestion

Post by worriedmum on 12.07.13 13:21

Kepharel, I think a 'spin-free' ,facts only time-line would be a fantastic resource. Maybe you could cut down on the work to yourself by asking forum members to send information under headings specified by yourself, eg, 'first day of holiday'. Maybe later these headings could be revisited using quotes from newspapers, Clarence Mitchell, interviews etc to highlight any apparent discrepancies.

ps stop talking about food everyone. You are making me feel hungry..lol4

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by PeterMac on 12.07.13 13:58

@Kepharel wrote:There ya go…never post while inebriated J J , some of the above is not quite what I meant to say, obviously J, more the uttering of a Rowley Birkin QC comedy sketch. My mind, last night was focussing on the events of 28th April to 4th May only, and not the hundreds of issues that have arisen since then over the years concerning all the other stuff the parents have been embroiled in, important though they are. Hence my timeline preoccupation. It seems to me that the same questions over that crucial holiday period have been thrown around on the internet since the beginning.  Many have been put directly to the Tapas.  But we ask ourselves those same questions all the time and base our answers around those same old questions trying to come up with insights and understanding, so maybe it’s the questions that need to change; new questions mean new debates, and new debates give new insights.
 
I am sober now, promise!

(So am I, for the moment.)
Do you have a favourite theory which fits some or most of the available facts ?
We have certainly been bombarded with things which turn out to be irrelevant, and the Press seem to have a deliberate policy of confusion. Teasing it out, as you did with Payne Light - brilliant by the way - may suddenly allow a bit of light to shine through a chink in the wall of deceit which has been erected.

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Re: Trying to make sense of it all.

Post by whmon on 12.07.13 19:26

Brilliant idea Kepharel - Looking at the known facts and ignoring everything said by the T9 (with the possible exception of DW.) Inspired! I also have to say I am pleased you decided to stay, you add valuable input. bravo

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