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Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

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Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Tony Bennett on 23.06.13 18:26

Christopher Booker, Sunday Telegraph, today:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Christopher Booker  Sun. Tel 23_06_13

Met Office admits it hasn't a clue

If its implications were not so serious, it might have seemed
hilarious that the Met Office's scentists last week staged a
conffrviK'i' to discuss why, in recent years, Britain.'s weather has
apparently gone off the rails. What they meant, without admitting it,
was: why have they got their forecasts so spectacularly wrong in 12
years out of the past 13? Why in 2009 did they predict a "barbecue
summer" when the summer was a washout? Why, in 2010, did they predict
a "milder-than-average winter" just before we had one of the
coldest-ever Decembers? Why in 2012 did they forecast a
"drier-than-average" spring and early summer just before we enjoyed
one of the wettest summers on record?

The explanation, of course, is that the Met Office's experts have been
so obsessed with global warming that their computers were programmed
tn predict "hotter, drier summers" and "wanner, wetter winters" for
decades to come. Tellingly, they last week went out of their way to
discount man-made global warming as the cause of all this "climate
disruption", ascribing it instead to various natural factors, from
changes in solar radiation to shifts in ocean currents: in other
words, precisely the arguments less blinkered scientists have been
urging in vain for years. The significance of this retreat from their
former mindset is that the influence of our Met Office in driving the
man-made warming scare has been second to none, not least through the
prestige it has enjoyed with the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change ever since it was launched in 1988 under the Met
Office's then-director, Dr John Houghton.

Only two clear messages emerged from last week's conference. The first
was that the Met Office experts seem, at last, to be admitting that
they really have no idea what is driving the changes in our weather.
The other was their call for more research funding to help them to
find out.

But as the Met Office and its much-vaunted "supercomputer" is already
costing us £200 million a year, I suppose that it is good to see them
conceding that, so far, we haven't really had much value for our
money.

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by aquila on 23.06.13 18:51

£200 million pounds for a system that doesn't work and it's clear it doesn't and is designed to support this global warming theory and the money making industries that support it.

Just looking at the practical points of a weather forecast that costs £200M and the devastating effect it causes when it is consistently wrong is proof to me that it's not aimed at truthful things. This is long term weather forecasting which could avoid the following:

In the snows last winter farmers lost their living and many, many animals lost their lives in horrific conditions. The weather forecast was wrong.

In the past few years we have seen extensive flooding in Britain. People have lost their homes and selling a riverside home is difficult. Insurance companies took a big hit and had to be bullied into payouts.

When it snows UK road/rail transport systems grind to a halt.

When it rains too much UK gets floods.

When the sun shines the UK has hosepipe bans.

Incorrect weather forecasting causes pain and hardship to honest people just trying to make a living.

So who benefits from the global warming scam? I think that's obvious. It's so depressing that nothing seems to be for the benefit of society anymore.


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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Angelique on 23.06.13 18:51

I don't understand why they don't use Dendrochronology for forecasting any more because it is very reliable. Maybe those responsible for looking after our trees have annihilated most of our ancient forests and have chopped all the trees down.

It could have saved them the £200 million they refer to.

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Tony Bennett on 23.06.13 19:04

@Angelique wrote:I don't understand why they don't use Dendrochronology for forecasting any more because it is very reliable...
It certainly helps us understand past climate,and weather, year by year, but doesn't necessarily help us with future climate/weather.

Maybe we can become our own amateur weather forecasters with the aid of some of these:

Collection of Weather Sayings

SKY

• Red sky at night, sailors delight.
• Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning.

SUN

• Haloes around the sun or moon indicate a rain or snow real soon.
• A reddish sun has water in his eye; before long you won't be dry.
• When the sun sets bright and clear, an easterly wind you need not fear.
• Evening red and morning gray, a good sign for a fair day.
• If the sun in red should set, the next day surely will be wet; if the sun should set in gray, the next will be a fair day.

MOON

• Pale moon rains, red moon blows; white moon neither rains nor blows.
• The moon her face be red, of water she speaks.
• When the moon raises red and appears large, with clouds, expect rain in twelve hours.
• When the moon is darkest near the horizon, expect rain.
• Clear moon, frost soon.

CLOUDS

• High clouds indicate fine weather will prevail; lower clouds mean rain.
• When clouds look like rocks and towers, the Earth will be refreshed by showers.
• Clouds on the setting sun's brow indicate rain.
• If cumulus clouds are smaller at sunset than at noon, expect fair weather.
• When cumulus clouds become heaped in leeward during a strong wind at sunset, thunder may be expected during the night.
• Cumulus clouds in a clear blue sky, it will likely rain.
• Mares' tails and mackerel scales make tall ships take in their sails.

PRECIPITATION

• A sunny shower won't last an hour.

WIND

• A wind from the south has rain in its mouth.
• If cirrus clouds form in weather with a falling barometer, it is almost sure to rain.

BIRDS

• If the goose honks high, fair weather; if the goose honks low, foul weather.
• Birds flying low, expect rain and a blow.
• If the lark flies high, expect fair weather.
• If the rooster crows on going to bed, you may rise with a watery head.
• If the raven crows, expect rain.
• When geese cackle, it will rain.
• When ducks quack loudly, it's a sign of rain.
• The hooting of the owl brings rain.
• If the sparrow makes a lot of noise, rain will follow.
• When parrots whistle, expect rain.

INSECTS

• Crickets are accurate thermometers; they chirp faster when warm and slower when cold.
• Cockroaches are more active before a storm.
• Locusts sing when the air is hot and dry.
• Before a rain, ants are very busy, gnats bite, crickets are lively, spiders leave their nest; and flies gather in houses.
• When spider’s webs in air do fly, the spell will soon be very dry.
• If garden spiders forsake their webs, it indicates rain.
• If spiders are many and spinning their webs, the spell will soon be very dry.
• Spiders enlarge and repair their webs before bad weather.

MAMMALS

• When a cow endeavors to scratch his ear, it means a rain shower is very near. When he thumps his ribs with an angry tail, look out for thunder, lightning and hail.
• If a dog pulls his feet up high while walking, a change in the weather is coming.
• Cats scratch a post before wind; Wash their faces before a rain; and sit with backs to the fire before snow.
• Cats with their tails up and hair apparently electrified indicate approaching wind.
• Horses run fast before a violent storm or before windy conditions.
• Pigs gather leaves and straw before a storm.
• If the bull leads the cows to pasture, expect rain; if the cows precede the bull, the weather will be uncertain.

REPTILES/AMPHIBIANS

• The louder the frog, the more the rain.
• If frogs make a noise during cold rain, warm dry weather will follow.

PLANTS/TREES

• Open crocus, warm weather. Closed crocus, cold weather. Tulips open their blossoms when the temperature rises; they close again when the temperature falls.
• The daisy shuts its eye before rain.
• If the marigold should open at six or seven in the morning and not close until four in the afternoon, we may reckon on settled weather.
• Flowers smell best just before a rain.
• Dandelion blossoms close before a rain.
• When the milkweed closes its pod, expect rain.
• The pitcher plant opens wider before a rain.
• Chickweeds close their leaves before a rain.

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Newintown on 23.06.13 19:08

I remember well the great storm of 1998 in the UK, I was in the process of buying an apartment at that time only to be told that some of the windows had been blown out by the storm -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

As far as I can remember someone in Scandinavia forecast the horrendous winds and they were fobbed off by the BBC weather report, but they were proved to be right, so if some other country can predict our weather patterns how come we can't?

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by tigger on 23.06.13 19:32

Here they have solved the forecasting problem. It is my belief they have a man on the roof  who calls down what he can see coming a mile or so off.

The 'forecasts' are adjusted on the website throughout the day, up and down - curiously in tune with the weather outside on the whole. Sometimes they're a little late telling me it's raining, but I expect the man on the roof has to have a tea-break now and then.

Weather warnings go from yellow to orange to red. Heavy thunderstorms are forecast quite often. Never happened except one night we had the father and mother of all thunderstorms which for some reason they hadn't seen coming....

@ Tony: we once made up spoof weather forecasts: 'when cows lie down at night, tomorrow will be bright' - and such. I'm sure you can do better as can many here!

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Tony Bennett on 23.06.13 19:39

@tigger wrote:Here they have solved the forecasting problem. It is my belief they have a man on the roof  who calls down what he can see coming a mile or so off.

The 'forecasts' are adjusted on the website throughout the day, up and down - curiously in tune with the weather outside on the whole. Sometimes they're a little late telling me it's raining, but I expect the man on the roof has to have a tea-break now and then.

Weather warnings go from yellow to orange to red. Heavy thunderstorms are forecast quite often. Never happened except one night we had the father and mother of all thunderstorms which for some reason they hadn't seen coming....

@ Tony: we once made up spoof weather forecasts: 'when cows lie down at night, tomorrow will be bright' - and such. I'm sure you can do better as can many here!

I don't know if you have the equivalent to some of these quaint observations on the Britsh weather:

February Fill-dyke

March - comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb

April showers bring May flowers

Ne'er cast a clout till May be out

Flaming June

When the broom is in bloom, then kissing's in fashion

Rain before seven, fine before eleven

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Guest on 23.06.13 20:54

Belgian weather forecast: "as for the weather of today - look out of the window ..."

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Ayniia on 23.06.13 21:02

It's happening all over the place and yes this is a "conspiracy theory" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemtrail_conspiracy_theory
If anyone's interested here's one of many videos about it Chemtrails Exposed (Part 1) - What In The World Are They Spraying?

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Angelique on 23.06.13 21:43

Tony

Thank you for the Collection of Weather Sayings - lots I had not heard before.

There is a local one in the west of "Rain before seven, dry by eleven" - though sometimes it's only relevant for showery weather.

Also "When cows lay down, rain will fall".

The North winds do blow and we shall have snow.

I believe that our weather patterns are cyclical so reading back the weather merely repeats but I appreciate it is of minimal use. :)

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Tony Bennett on 23.06.13 22:07

How many popular music songs are based on the weather?

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by sallypelt on 23.06.13 22:08

@Tony Bennett wrote:How many popular music songs are based on the weather?

It's raining men? spin

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by sallypelt on 23.06.13 22:10

To lighten things up a bit, after the excitement of the last week or so, why don't we try to see how many songs we CAN name, that relate to the weather?

I'll start with::

Sunshine on my Shoulders

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by aquila on 23.06.13 22:12

It's Raining Again (Supertramp)

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Tony Bennett on 23.06.13 22:21


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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Guest on 23.06.13 22:41

A wide range there from Paul Gascoigne (!!) to Frank Sinatra.
 
One of the first records I ever bought was this one by Carole King.
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbKE0gJETA0

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Guest on 23.06.13 22:53

Slightly off, but one of my favourites from Midnight Cowboy:
Everybody's talking ...
"I'm going where the sun keeps shining"

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Tony Bennett on 23.06.13 23:02

I forgot 'Bring Me Sunshine' - by Morecambe & Wise of course:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfXjDELeW5M

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by sallypelt on 23.06.13 23:04

Raining in my heart  (buddy Holly)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLeZof1wGps

Summer In The City (Lovin Spoonful)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc0F-fw3tkY


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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Tony Bennett on 23.06.13 23:13

Singing in the Rain

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmCpOKtN8ME


Sorry, the next one is right off topic, but when I posted 'Bring me Sunshine' by Morecambe and Wise, I couldn't resist adding:
The Breakfast Sketch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFgdhZGLJrY&list=PLB2E04A5A308F4F91

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Guest on 23.06.13 23:26

@Tony Bennett wrote:[ [...] I couldn't resist adding:[/font][/color]
The Breakfast Sketch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFgdhZGLJrY&list=PLB2E04A5A308F4F91
***
That nearly killed me! I'm still crying for laughter ...
Not being British I didn't know these guys, but I am definitely going to try and to look up all of their sketches!

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Tony Bennett on 23.06.13 23:37

Châtelaine wrote: That nearly killed me! I'm still crying for laughter ...

Not being British I didn't know these guys, but I am definitely going to try and to look up all of their sketches!
Slightly, but only slightly, more subtle - this famous Morecambe and Wise sketch with conductor Andre Previn - most M&W fans would put this near the top of their favourites:-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7GeKLE0x3s

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Guest on 23.06.13 23:57

That is tops!
And amazingly Previn is absolutely great too ...

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Re: Meteorological Office admits (sort of) that it hasn't got a clue why it's got all its long-term forecasts wrong

Post by Newintown on 24.06.13 0:37

You are the sunshine of my life - Stevie Wonder

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