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Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by rainbow-fairy on Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:11 pm

@russiandoll wrote: not confused me at all Rainbow Fairy......we are in a confusing place with this case at the start. If there was a sub I agree a proof of life reason... but such a high risk strategy and she would have to be there from the start almost so as to be accepted by staff as the real thing.
So high risk and who on earth would allow their child to be used like this and it surely means pre planning? And a little girl being happily dropped off and picked up, it would have to be by an adult she was familiar with surely? There would have been none of that recognition from afar and running to Mummy or Daddy would there?

I am trying to keep things simple and avid some of the more outlandish theories but those sheets are so very strange.
Yep, the whole case is strange and confusing - I agree some theories are outlandish-sounding, but IMO THE most outlandish of all is the 'official' Team McCann version (or should I say versions) It just doesn't stack up at all...
I can imagine a child happily going along with the plan if it was pitched the right way -
Adult: 'Would you like to come on holiday and play pretend I'm your Mummy? Wouldn't that be fun? I'll give you lots of treats and we'll have lots of fun. Just remember, I'm 'Mummy' for the week'
Child 'Ok! Can I have some sweets?'
Adult 'Sure you can. Now who am I going to be on holiday?'
Child 'My Mummy!' (giggles)

I can certainly see this working. As to why the parents would go along with it - who knows? Who can tell the ties that bind certain groups together?

Not saying it is this way, just it could be.
I've got massive frown lines since getting into all this. I don't know about you, but I feel this is like 'catching smoke'. Last night as I was compiling a post, I had that nagging feeling that I was missing something - you know when your subconscious is trying to prick you? It feels like the answer to this is within reach, and then - (in Kate's words) - whoosh! Its gone...

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by Nina on Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:55 pm

The crux for me is that the child had the same name though spelt differently. She may even have been around the same age and blondish. She doesn't have to pretend that Kate and Gerry were her parents if her own parent/s was/were there on sign in and pick up.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by tigger on Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:21 pm

@aiyoyo wrote:
@tigger wrote:
@david_uk wrote:i would normally despair of talk of subs etc! as i do of wider MAsonic conspiracies. but i have for along time been of the opinion that Maddie met her fate before the 3rd of May, the night she was heard crying for example and was suprised when GA came out and said he beleives it was all in the same night. So perhaps given more time, a plan was made and staged that night.But then this would involved ALL the Tapas and I just do not think that that many people would stay quiet for this long.

In the first place: I think Amaral went with what would stick. He may have a very good idea what really happened, but like a good policeman he will go with what will stand up in court. An awful lot of what we discuss here won't stand up in court - even though it's interesting.

I too, prefer as few players as possible - but Maddie is the central figure here. So I've just posted a youtube video which contains a lot of photographs were it seems glaringly obvious that Maddie was not a well, possibly not even a 'normal' child in the physical sense.

I think we can agree that her parents aren't normal people in the psychological sense. At least, none of their reactions are normal for the circumstances.
The big stumbling block is the Fund. Therefore I am convinced it was planned. How they got the family and the T7 on board, I don't know. But a plan may well succeed without all participants knowing the whole of it. Just a need-to-know that e.g. Maddie was ill, suddenly got worse and there can't possibly be a PM - loss of jobs, home, twins etc. Once you're in, hard to get out without damage.
The biggest obstacle has been the instant protection/cover up. Which is perpetuated by their lawyers - British libel laws being what they are.
There is simply no independent record of Maddie's presence in PdL after the 29th april. I would put her death at the latest on the 1st. But earlier would make more sense in view of the phone activity and the creche sheets.

It is not too difficult to get T7 to agree to get onside, if T7 were lied to by the mccanns as to the true nature of her accident.
If they were given to believe she met her fate as a result of self caused accident and if they believed they risk facing neglect charges, then it's easier to understand why they agreed to the cover up. Else, I cant see how all of them, one or two of them maybe, but not all of them will agree to help mccanns hide a homicide.

I know people are divided over the neglect issue, with a section of people believing the neglect was to allow an alibi for abduction.
I believe the children were left alone every night, but not checked on, apart from May3rd which is just charade to allow the fake abduction. Kate told us about the nightly neglect in her bewk - remember the "special message" she said was penned against their blocked bookings on the Tapas Bar reservations book, and which was left open by the Pool side for anyone who care to look. It's a ridiculous way to insinuate that was what the abductor did, but effectively she admitted to nelgect and none of the Tapas 7 objected to that for they must have vetted her bewk before publication.

Far as I am concerned, I feel it is only plausible if they gave themselves reasonable time(say within 24 hours) to clean, dispose, and get rid of evidence, but not that much time that they had to complicate it by sub etc. It simply does not make sense to factor in a lot more outside elements risking being exposed for their lies.

I am firmly for a very early date and a correlation of the disposal of the body and the appearance of Murat and the phone pings analyses.
Don't forget that there was no way to photoshop a coloboma in Maddie's eye and pretty up the photograph further. The poster photo was on a usb stick allegedly - although this proof was never given. The paper it was printed on was not available in PdL.
There were some 30 - 40 printed and ready two to three hours after her disappearance.
So that pretty well rules out surprise at the 'accident' .

Even if she did have an accident on the 30th/1st, that still is little time to fake an abduction, wash the curtains, clean the premises, get rid of some of her clothes - e.g. trainers.
Then make plans on how to run it, get people on your side, organize the disposal of the body - that in itself could take time.
The 3rd is out full stop. They'd have to sit down and:
decide to delete all calls before police came
find a contact to remove the body
clean the flat and wash the curtains
dispose of other incriminating evidence such as sleeping medication
draw up a plan to stage abduction
assist in the removal of the body
inform the T7 and get their help in the stage set
discuss what organizations should be called / press/embassy/ GB?

There's bound to be a whole lot of other things to be arranged. Imo the mindset of anyone who's just found their child dead after an accident isn't really functioning normally. To immediately organize a complicated scheme to tell the world of an abduction - that takes time.
For me, way too much was ready right at the start. This started in the UK - long before PdL.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by rainbow-fairy on Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:39 pm

So you are totally ruling out accidental death, tigger?

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by russiandoll on Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:29 pm

Given the absence of DNA from the place one would expect to find it, apt 5A, given the lack of contemporaneous photos of Madeleine that week, and the early use of a sub if there was one, is there any chance or is it too left -field an idea, that the child named Madeleine Beth McCann was not taken to Portugal 28th April?

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by jmac on Fri Mar 02, 2012 5:20 pm

I have trouble with the idea of a substitute. If the sub also had parents picking her up from creche as well as the McCanns it would mean that there was one less child in the creche than there should have been. It was a small group. A missing child would have been noticed.

Having said that the creche records look suspicious.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by worriedmum on Fri Mar 02, 2012 6:16 pm

If the Smiths, belief that the person they saw carrying a child was GM, surely this raises two important issues:
i) Why on earth would he go undisguised, with or without a 'substitute'? Even wearing a hoody would help. What possible benefit would there be in being seen and recognised ?
ii)so if it wasn't a substitute, why was there no cadaver odour?

I wonder if there is so much information out there that posters are not considering the most simple scenarios, which I would have thought have just as much merit.
eg, the reason the posters were printed quickly on paper unavailable in Portugal was because whoever had the printer(nanny?nanny's boyfriend?sorry can't remember)
brought it with them , with the printer, from the UK.....

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by tigger on Fri Mar 02, 2012 7:49 pm

@worriedmum wrote:If the Smiths, belief that the person they saw carrying a child was GM, surely this raises two important issues:
i) Why on earth would he go undisguised, with or without a 'substitute'? Even wearing a hoody would help. What possible benefit would there be in being seen and recognised ?
ii)so if it wasn't a substitute, why was there no cadaver odour?

I wonder if there is so much information out there that posters are not considering the most simple scenarios, which I would have thought have just as much merit.
eg, the reason the posters were printed quickly on paper unavailable in Portugal was because whoever had the printer(nanny?nanny's boyfriend?sorry can't remember)
brought it with them , with the printer, from the UK.....

As to your last point, simple would be good, but: these were allegedly printed within hours of Madeleine's disappearance, wouldn't it be more logical:
a) to search for your daughter who could only be minutes away
b) use a recent photograph from your camera to print out - not a picture from nearly 18 months ago (and why would that be so easily available at that time?)
c) how did the eye defect get on the photograph? Because they are on record on the 11th May 2011 in the Piers Morgan interview that it was just a fleck which you could only see from very close by

Simple would be nice - simple would be shouting her name, not leaving your other two children alone and simple would be to assume she'd wandered off, through the open patio door - it wasn't locked, a four years old could easily open it. Especially in view of the fact that Maddie often woke during the night and got a star on a chart at home when she stayed in bed all night.
That's simple.
Shouting - not her name, but 'They've taken her!' is not simple although it handily gives us the whole of the plot line. Paedophiles turned up in droves soon afterwards, in part two of the plot line.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by rainbow-fairy on Fri Mar 02, 2012 7:54 pm

@worriedmum wrote:If the Smiths, belief that the person they saw carrying a child was GM, surely this raises two important issues:
i) Why on earth would he go undisguised, with or without a 'substitute'? Even wearing a hoody would help. What possible benefit would there be in being seen and recognised ?
ii)so if it wasn't a substitute, why was there no cadaver odour?

I wonder if there is so much information out there that posters are not considering the most simple scenarios, which I would have thought have just as much merit.
eg, the reason the posters were printed quickly on paper unavailable in Portugal was because whoever had the printer(nanny?nanny's boyfriend?sorry can't remember)
brought it with them , with the printer, from the UK.....
Just some possibilities -
1)Maybe there was no benefit to Gerry being seen and he had no choice but to go out. As for going in disguise or a hoody, didn't Amaral say that the route he took would normally be deserted at that time of night and year?
2)You assume that if it wasn't a 'sub' it had to be a dead Maddie - why? It could've been Amelie. If it WAS a dead Maddie (which I really doubt) I would've thought, knowing he'd been spotted he would have got rid of the clothes he was wearing, in case...
As for the printer paper, would that be the printer that has never been traced because it conveniently went to France with the boyfriend??? I guess its possible that that is where the paper came from, but it still doesn't explain WHY they had a photoshopped picture on a memory stick with them? Nor why they released this picture that didn't resemble the daughter allegedly missing?

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by rainbow-fairy on Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:13 pm

@tigger wrote:
@worriedmum wrote:If the Smiths, belief that the person they saw carrying a child was GM, surely this raises two important issues:
i) Why on earth would he go undisguised, with or without a 'substitute'? Even wearing a hoody would help. What possible benefit would there be in being seen and recognised ?
ii)so if it wasn't a substitute, why was there no cadaver odour?

I wonder if there is so much information out there that posters are not considering the most simple scenarios, which I would have thought have just as much merit.
eg, the reason the posters were printed quickly on paper unavailable in Portugal was because whoever had the printer(nanny?nanny's boyfriend?sorry can't remember)
brought it with them , with the printer, from the UK.....

As to your last point, simple would be good, but: these were allegedly printed within hours of Madeleine's disappearance, wouldn't it be more logical:
a) to search for your daughter who could only be minutes away
b) use a recent photograph from your camera to print out - not a picture from nearly 18 months ago (and why would that be so easily available at that time?)
c) how did the eye defect get on the photograph? Because they are on record on the 11th May 2011 in the Piers Morgan interview that it was just a fleck which you could only see from very close by

Simple would be nice - simple would be shouting her name, not leaving your other two children alone and simple would be to assume she'd wandered off, through the open patio door - it wasn't locked, a four years old could easily open it. Especially in view of the fact that Maddie often woke during the night and got a star on a chart at home when she stayed in bed all night.
That's simple.
Shouting - not her name, but 'They've taken her!' is not simple although it handily gives us the whole of the plot line. Paedophiles turned up in droves soon afterwards, in part two of the plot line.
tigger, hadn't seen your post when I replied, but once again great minds think alike! Wink

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by worriedmum on Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:58 pm

tigger wrote''
As to your last point, simple would be good, but: these were allegedly
printed within hours of Madeleine's disappearance, wouldn't it be more
logical:
a) to search for your daughter who could only be minutes away
b)
use a recent photograph from your camera to print out - not a picture
from nearly 18 months ago (and why would that be so easily available at
that time?)
c) how did the eye defect get on the photograph? Because
they are on record on the 11th May 2011 in the Piers Morgan interview
that it was just a fleck which you could only see from very close by

Simple
would be nice - simple would be shouting her name, not leaving your
other two children alone and simple would be to assume she'd wandered
off, through the open patio door - it wasn't locked, a four years old
could easily open it. Especially in view of the fact that Maddie often
woke during the night and got a star on a chart at home when she stayed
in bed all night.
That's simple.
Shouting - not her name, but
'They've taken her!' is not simple although it handily gives us the
whole of the plot line. Paedophiles turned up in droves soon afterwards,
in part two of the plot line. ''

Sorry Tigger, I don't think I expressed myself clearly..

a)yes I totally agree
b)yes obviously recent is better
c) I do think she had a coloboma and maybe health issues that went with this, just my opinion, seems very strange to me it is now being downplayed...


When I said simple, I meant a timeline of events leading up to Madeleine's disappearance:I agree that the reactions of the parents are not what I could imagine myself doing in those circumstances, especially leaving sleeping babies alone if you think there is an abductor. Rainbow-fairy I like your point that maybe the Smiths' 'GM' just HAD to go then and expected it to be empty streets.Desperation?

I really can't get my head round the idea of a substitute- I just thought that the record keeping at the Creche was more relaxed than we would expect and I wonder if we are being diverted from more straightforward explanations-the trouble with so many inconsistencies is, what do you take as your base-line--what can be pinned down as actual truth?
Thank you for your thoughts on this.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by jmac on Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:36 pm

Speculations are obviously open to the investigators and they can direct their questions and investigations accordingly and so determine whether or not their speculations are accurate.

Unfortunately it is not possible for a forum such as this to do such a thing. Therefore there is a risk that such speculations will be judged as wild, off the mark, etc. In fact, they cannot ALL be accurate.

I am not opposed to speculation, but I am against the suggestion that such speculation could `turn this case around`. RUBBISH

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by jmac on Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:49 pm

What is required is evidence. Tony Bennett presented his concerns in a clear and concicse manner with evience to support his case and that is why he is now being pursued by the McCanns.

The flurry of speculation now going on is acting against the clarity with which he presented his evidence and is not helpful.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by MikeH on Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:01 pm

Hi everyone,

I've registered before, a year or more ago, but had my account deactivated because I didn't post. Like many of you, I've followed this case from the start, and don't intend to give up on it anytime soon.

Supporting the substitute theory....

I've just got to add that the use of the out of date picture supports the substitute Madeleine theory completely. They could not use a current photo of Madeleine because all of the nannies would notice that it was not the same child, hence the assortment of photos we see, all appearing to be almost different children. The nannies would have stated that the Madeleine they had looked after was a different child, similar perhaps, but not the same. Using a plethora of photographs of differently aged photos of Madeleine just clouded the issue.

The "photoshopped" iconic image of Madeleine which everyone now knows, was clearly prepared and printed in advance as this was the image that they had to get out there at the earliest opportunity, cute and marketable Madeleine, and following the admittance on the Piers Morgan show that this coloboma was nothing but a slight fleck, this image must have been enhanced, which all points to pre planning of the entire "abduction" scenario.

And... just where are all the loving family photographs, which normal families take frequently of their children, from this holiday which would show Madeleine as she really appeared at this time - in reality there are none, other than the one which mysteriously appeared several weeks later after a return visit to the UK.

Simply, if your child went missing, a child aged almost 4 years old, would you immediately have photos printed of how your child appeared almost two years ago so that people would know who to look for............ ?

Mike


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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by worriedmum on Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:03 pm

going back to the beginning of this thread, and just'thinking aloud', if you had to make a body 'disappear', it would be a bit pointless to go and ''look' for it later too ,wouldn't it...you might have to 'find' it in front of other people....

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Post by tigger on Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:07 pm

Hi, The timeline of events leading up to Maddie's disappearance comes courtesy of the key players. Therefore it is unreliable evidence imo. We have little independent evidence of events, so one is stuck with circumstantial evidence. That's all there is, barring a sudden attack of conscience on the part of the McCanns.
Gerry McCann himself has said that it is good there is so much confusion out there. Yet another strange thing to say if you want to find your daughter.

So putting circumstantial and recorded evidence together is always going to lead to various interpretations. We can surmise, we cannot know.
I do know however what happened if I find an empty canary cage, feathers on the floor and a satisfied cat. Circumstantial evidence at its best.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by jmac on Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:21 pm

Exactly, and without anything stonger there is nothing ...

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by PeterMac on Sat Mar 03, 2012 8:22 am

Most murder trials are based on circumstantial evidence.
People spend their lives in prison, or in days gone by were hanged, purely on the basis of circumstantial evidence.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by tigger on Sat Mar 03, 2012 8:34 am

@PeterMac wrote:Most murder trials are based on circumstantial evidence.
People spend their lives in prison, or in days gone by were hanged, purely on the basis of circumstantial evidence.

That's why I said: I do know however what happened if I find an empty canary cage, feathers on the floor and a satisfied cat. Circumstantial evidence at its best.
Isn't it the weight of the evidence, circumstantial or otherwise, that decides the outcome of a trial?

If say an amount of 1026,23 2 is missing from the cash desk of a shop and my bank account is found to have been augmented in cash by exactly that amount, I would say it is strong circumstantial evidence, since it cannot be proved that it's exactly the same notes and coins that are deposited. But I'm still going to have to explain where it came from?

jmac seems to disagree.


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why we are still here.

Post by bobbin on Sat Mar 03, 2012 8:59 am

Or tigger,

and agreeing with your post,

as in the much more complicated McCann’s case, where confusion is good, where money-laundering, sorry, I meant, strange-unaccounted-expenses and depletion of funds, are yet to be explained, there could be someone in the accounts department who had access to your bank details, who moved the money across into your account, intending to go into the bank themselves, to remove the cash, and leave you carrying the can.

Look at how Murat has been implicated, Halligen, etc. who knows !

That’s why we’re still here.

We know something has gone missing, a real life little girl, or has she?

That’s where the circumstantial evidence is harder to pin down, and to ANYONE who questions, or seeks to diminish, why we are here, chewing over every detail that we can jointly bring to the surface, ‘purporting’ our different theories and possibilities, the very complexity of this ‘very, very fishy tale’ is why we are still here and will be for the duration.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by Guest on Sat Mar 03, 2012 9:06 am

@MikeH wrote:Hi everyone,

I've registered before, a year or more ago, but had my account deactivated because I didn't post. Like many of you, I've followed this case from the start, and don't intend to give up on it anytime soon.

Supporting the substitute theory....

I've just got to add that the use of the out of date picture supports the substitute Madeleine theory completely. They could not use a current photo of Madeleine because all of the nannies would notice that it was not the same child, hence the assortment of photos we see, all appearing to be almost different children. The nannies would have stated that the Madeleine they had looked after was a different child, similar perhaps, but not the same. Using a plethora of photographs of differently aged photos of Madeleine just clouded the issue.

The "photoshopped" iconic image of Madeleine which everyone now knows, was clearly prepared and printed in advance as this was the image that they had to get out there at the earliest opportunity, cute and marketable Madeleine, and following the admittance on the Piers Morgan show that this coloboma was nothing but a slight fleck, this image must have been enhanced, which all points to pre planning of the entire "abduction" scenario.

And... just where are all the loving family photographs, which normal families take frequently of their children, from this holiday which would show Madeleine as she really appeared at this time - in reality there are none, other than the one which mysteriously appeared several weeks later after a return visit to the UK.

Simply, if your child went missing, a child aged almost 4 years old, would you immediately have photos printed of how your child appeared almost two years ago so that people would know who to look for............ ?

Mike


Excellent first post Mike H and welcome back to the forum.

Your last point especially gives good cause alone, for the substitue theory.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by tuom on Sat Apr 07, 2012 8:46 pm

@tigger wrote:Hi, The timeline of events leading up to Maddie's disappearance comes courtesy of the key players. Therefore it is unreliable evidence imo. We have little independent evidence of events, so one is stuck with circumstantial evidence. That's all there is, barring a sudden attack of conscience on the part of the McCanns.
Gerry McCann himself has said that it is good there is so much confusion out there. Yet another strange thing to say if you want to find your daughter.

So putting circumstantial and recorded evidence together is always going to lead to various interpretations. We can surmise, we cannot know.
I do know however what happened if I find an empty canary cage, feathers on the floor and a satisfied cat. Circumstantial evidence at its best.




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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by Guest on Mon Oct 14, 2013 12:49 pm

Bumping this with Pat Brown's opening post on the Smith sighting.

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Another analysis by Pat Brown

Post by PeterMac on Fri Nov 01, 2013 4:36 pm


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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: The Smith Sighting vs Jane Tanner's by Pat Brown

Post by bodiddly on Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:34 pm

Great post by PB. She is right about the "disaster" quote and the taking the first immediate words out of someone's mouth.

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